Bustos barely leads Schilling
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bobby Schilling publicized a poll I had taken for subscribers this week. Kinda ticks me off, but here’s part of his press release…
- A new We Ask America poll indicates U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline) is in for a tough rematch against Bobby Schilling (R-Colona). The poll of 1,496 voters in the Illinois 17th District gives Bustos a slim 45-44 lead over Schilling, which falls within the margin of error. Schilling leads among Independents 51-34. The poll sampled 37% Democrats, 24% Republicans, and 39% Independents.
Some of the crosstabs from the poll are here. Subscribers have results and crosstabs for all questions asked.
* The DCCC knows they have a fight on their hands. From a Sun-Times story during my vacation…
The chair of the Democratic House political operation on Tuesday deemed every Chicago area incumbent in good shape heading into the 2014 contests, not expecting—with one exception—replays of bruising 2012 battles.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) briefed reporters on the 2014 political landscape at a breakfast organized by the Christian Science Monitor.
I asked Israel about the Illinois House delegation, which has a large Democratic freshman contingent: Rep. Robin Kelly, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, Rep. Brad Schneider, Rep. Cheri Bustos, Rep. William Enyart and Rep. Bill Foster, who is a freshman with an asterisk since he has previously served in Congress.
Kelly is the only one in the freshman bunch from a safe Democratic district—you may remember, the one that re-elected former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. last year—even though no one had seen him for months and there were ethics clouds handing over him. Jackson is, as most of you need no reminding, booked for a 2.5 year prison term starting Nov. 1.
DCCC polling shows all of the freshmen incumbents “running strong,” Israel said.
The members with the biggest fights on their hands are Bustos and Enyart, representing Downstate districts that “some would call more competitive,” Israel said.
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* From WUIS…
Running against [Attorney General Lisa Madigan] will not be easy. She’s a three-term incumbent, has one of the richest campaign funds in Illinois, and happens to be in one of the state’s most powerful political families.
But none of that is deterring [Republican] Paul Schimpf, a retired Marine Corps lawyer from the town of Waterloo.
“Unlike four years ago or eight years ago, I actually think there are a number of reasons that Democrats — not Republicans, but Democrats — would vote against Lisa Madigan,” Schimpf says. […]
“Who can you trust to protect your religious liberty? Who can you trust to be an honest broker on the pensions issue? Who can you trust to actually fight corruption?” Schimpf asks. “I can do a better job than Lisa can.”
Discuss.
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Fun with numbers
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Cook County State’s Attorney’s office did its best to play down the Illinois Supreme Court’s ruling that struck down a gun control law last week…
Cook County prosecutors will drop weapons charges pending against a small number of licensed firearms owners after the Illinois Supreme Court ruled this week that part of a state gun law is unconstitutional.
The Illinois Supreme Court ruled Thursday that state prosecutors must follow a ruling from a federal appeals court last year that ended Illinois’ status as the last state without a concealed carry law.
The ruling from the state’s highest court affects only a portion of a law prohibiting people from carrying guns outside their homes. Cases of aggravated unlawful use of a weapon brought against people who have valid FOID cards and were carrying firearms will not be pursued, prosecutors and defense attorneys said. […]
“It’s going to be a very, very small percentage of those charged,” said Fabio Valentini, who heads the Cook County state’s attorney’s office’s criminal prosecutions bureau. The office does not plan to appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, according to a spokeswoman.
* From the Twitters today…
Eighty people is probably a small percentage of those charged with violating the law, but that’s still quite a lot of people.
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Still kicking myself
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I went out with some pals after work yesterday to enjoy the cool air and warm sun and maybe pick up a story idea or two.
My phone rang at 5:25 pm. I noticed it was a friend who is very close to Bill Daley’s campaign. But somebody was telling a funny story about his vacation, so I didn’t answer the call. My friend didn’t leave a message, so I figured it must not be too important and I’d just call back when I got home.
* An hour and a half later, I was at Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka’s campaign kickoff event when everybody’s phones suddenly started blowing up, including mine…
That text was from the same person who’d called me earlier.
Oops.
* I’m still so mad at myself for not answering that call and then getting scooped by the Tribune that I felt I needed to share my pain.
Arghhhh!!!!
Anybody else have a similar story?
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More consequences of the Rauner plan
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A little-discussed aspect of Bruce Rauner’s term limit proposal is that it reduces the size of the Illinois Senate by almost a third…
Rauner is heading a petition drive to institute term limits, to make it harder for legislators to override a governor’s veto, and to reduce the size of the General Assembly. His plan adds a handful of members to the Illinois House, but takes away 18 senators.
Rauner says that’ll make elections more competitive.
“By having three House members per Senate district, no one House member already has half the district sort of locked up and have power of incumbency there,” he says. “It’ll allow challengers to take on incumbents.”
* Rauner opponent Kirk Dillard makes a very good point in opposing the idea…
“I think it’s a real slap in the face to downstate Illinois to downsize the state Senate because the districts become so geographically large, your chances of having input face to face to your state senator are greatly diminished,” Dillard says.
* Click the pic for a larger image, but it’s easy to see that lots of Downstate districts are already huge…
The 53rd Senate District is well over 5,000 square miles, for example. But it would have to grow much larger if the current 59 seats were reduced to 41.
* Texas has 36 Senate districts, so each has about 724,000 people in them. Those districts have more people than congressional districts. California’s 40 Senate districts have even more people in them, with over 950,000 per district.
So, I guess it wouldn’t be the end of the world if Rauner’s idea comes into being. But things would definitely be different. For instance, if you think the Democratic map spokes Chicago districts pretty darned far into the suburbs now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Treasurer Dan Rutherford believes that Bill Daley’s decision to drop out of the governor’s race helps Gov. Pat Quinn…
“Without having to contest a primary, he won’t be spending as much money, so he’ll be able to reserve his funds. For those of us that are in a contested primary, we’ll need to use our funds and replenish to get ready for the General Election, so that’s an advantage for him,” Rutherford said.
* Ed Morrissey at Hot Air believes the same…
Daley had the money and the organization to force Quinn to spend a lot of money and effort in the primary, leaving him weaker in the general election.
* There was a debate about this in comments last night as well. Some believed that Daley’s move benefits the Republican Party for an obvious reason…
Of course it helps the GOP.
You just guaranteed that you will be facing an incumbent with perhaps the lowest approval rating in the country while presiding over the 50th worst unemployment rate in America.
Short term? It would have been nice to have Daley beat up Quinn for a while and force him to spend cash.
Long term? You would much rather face Quinn than Daley or just about anyone else. Even with his reputation as a strong closer.
Plus, every GOP contender just got themselves a nice punching bag. If you don’t want to bloody the party, you pile on and bloody your common enemy. This may actually serve to unite the candidates a bit (not completely, but a bit) by focusing them on a single opponent.
* The Question: Does Bill Daley’s exit help or hurt the Republican Party’s chances? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey service
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Adventures in misgovernance
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The state settled a suit against Sylvia Riperton-Lewis brought by one of her employees at IDHS…
The plaintiff, Kenneth Shanoff, says that Riperton-Lewis, his supervisor at the Illinois Department of Human Services, made life so unpleasant while he worked at the John Madden Mental Health Center in Chicago that he became ill. He says in his lawsuit that Riperton-Lewis called him a “haughty Jew” after she was hired as a manager in 1996 and once lunged at him with a pen.
Soon after becoming his supervisor, Riperton-Lewis told Shanoff that he did not want to see “this n*gger get angry,” according to his lawsuit, and that she once told him “I know how to put you Jews in your place.” When he asked to have days off for Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur, Shanoff says that Riperton-Lewis told him “I don’t give a damn about your holidays.” […]
Riperton-Lewis denied making any discriminatory statements. A federal trial court ruled that Riperton-Lewis’ remarks weren’t sufficient to constitute a hostile work environment and so dismissed the lawsuit, but a three-judge appellate panel disagreed and ordered the case reinstated.
“She (Riperton-Lewis) used her supervisory position to bully, intimidate and insult Shanoff because of his race and religion, which is the type of ‘extreme’ harassment that is the hallmark of a hostile environment claim,” the appellate court wrote in a 2001 ruling that revived the case that was settled soon thereafter. “Riperton-Lewis’s remarks were not merely inappropriate, insulting, demeaning or annoying, and there is no indication that she was teasing Shanoff or that she simply lacked a proper sensitivity to his race and religion.”
Taxpayers shelled out $300,000 to settle the suit without anyone admitting any wrongdoing.
* But guess what? She’s now back on the payroll…
Last month, the state Department of Healthcare and Family Services hired Riperton-Lewis as a manager for the the department’s Bureau of Quality Management, a position exempt from civil service rules. She is paid $94,500 a year, more than $2,000 more than she was paid when she last worked for the state.
Sheesh.
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Pwned!
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This photo was shared by Gov. Quinn’s campaign. It’s from a Labor Day event that Bill Daley apparently did not advance all that well…
Oof.
Best caption wins a free beverage on me anywhere in Illinois.
…Adding… You can watch Daley’s 9:30 press conference live by clicking here.
…Adding More… This just doesn’t make sense…
He adamantly refuses to endorse the incumbent Democratic governor and leaves open the possibility that he could endorse Gov. Quinn’s Republican opponent, yet he’s angry that anyone would dare question his Democratic bona fides?
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Bill.
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Brady picks Rodriguez
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I told subscribers about this last night…
* More…
Rodriguez (53) is the former Village President of Long Grove, Illinois, and was a 2010 GOP candidate for the Congress in the 8th CD, losing in the primary to former Congressman Joe Walsh.
During her 2010 bid, Rodriguez was endorsed by conservative groups such as Concerned Women for America (CWA), Eagle Forum PAC, Susan B. Anthony and Illinois Pro Life Federation Federal. She was also endorsed by the Sun-Times and the Daily Herald.
Following her 2010 campaign, she was Executive Director of Adam Andrzejewski’s For the Good of Illinois.
* Here she is speaking at a 2010 tea party rally…
Not the greatest public speaker, but that could change.
Despite her surname, Rodriguez is not a Latina. But this still has the potential to be a dramatic pick for Brady.
* And here’s a photo of Brady and Rodriguez from a 2010 Family PAC event…
Shall we welcome her to the race with a caption contest?
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“This isn’t the best thing for me”
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz talked to Bill Daley…
“I’ve thought about elective office as sort of the crowning thing that I’d do,” Mr. Daley said in our phone conversation. “It’s one thing to think about it, another thing to do it.”
Mr. Quinn “is in bad (political) shape. I would have beaten him,” said Mr. Daley. “Pat Quinn is a great guy and a White Sox fan. But this state is in deep doo-doo.”
However, he added, “I had to ask, is this really what I want to do in the next four or six or nine years?” There was no one particular event, a poll or attack that drove him out of the race, Mr. Daley said. “It was an accumulation of things . . . Is this what you’re going to commit yourself to?”
Mr. Daley said he has not yet decided who he will support for governor next year, but asked if he will endorse Mr. Quinn, had a one-word answer: “No.” Asked if he actually might endorse a Republican, Mr. Daley replied, “I don’t know . . . I don’t know who’s in the race yet.”
There are so many things wrong with that thinking that I’m almost overwhelmed. But here are two…
1) Essentially, he admitted that he was trying to enhance his resume by running. It was about him, not the office or what he could do for the state.
2) He calls himself a Democrat, but leaves the door opening to endorsing a Republican? It truly was all about him.
* More from the Tribune story…
Daley said the weight of his six-week struggle over whether to continue his candidacy fell heavily last week during a news conference when a reporter reminded him of a Quinn comment that the governor “was put on Earth” to solve the state’s pension dilemma. At the time, Daley said he hoped that he was on Earth for more than just solving the pension mess.
But in an interview at his Loop office Monday, Daley said the moment left him to ponder, “is that really what I’m put on Earth for?”
Ugh.
* We’ve been sucked into a year-long psychodrama by a guy who, ironically, turns out to have few actual leadership skills…
Daley also could have faced questions for his handling of the White House during Obama’s first term.
In “The Message: The Reselling of President Obama,” a new book on the 2012 presidential campaign, political reporter Richard Wolffe quoted one campaign aide describing Daley as a “walking disaster” whose 2011-2012 West Wing stint was “chaotic,” according to Monday’s Washington Post.
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