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These kids today…

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WGN

A disturbing trend the kids are trying: snorting Smarties.

Thousands of YouTube videos have showed up showing kids grinding up the candy, and snorting it.

They’re laughing and egging each other one some are even doing it right there in the classroom.

They don’t think it’s risky because it’s candy and not a drug.

But, kids are getting caught and suspended from school for doing it, and doctors warn of some pretty serious risks.

They say, snorting Smarties can lead to lung irritation, infection, and even worse nasal maggots.

What sort of goofballs would ever do such a thing?

* Well, many years ago when my family rented a house on a farm in Iroquois County, my parents raised chickens. For whatever reason (I suppose he didn’t have a truck at the time), my dad bought some corn for the chickens and hauled it in the back seat of his 1964 Ford Falcon.

A few kernels remained on the floor of the back seat and were still there when my parents took us all on a family trip to Springfield.

My younger brother Denny was always an odd duck and to this day I’m not sure why he did it, but he put one of those corn kernels up his nose. He then proudly informed everyone of his superb accomplishment.

Mom told him to try to blow it out, but instead of blowing, Denny breathed in through his nose. Like I said, he was an odd duck.

Large families (I have four brothers) cannot ever escape the crazy. Somebody always does something goofy. But the real insanity comes when everybody gets into the act.

Dad was yelling, Mom was doing her best to stay calm, and my other brothers and I were trying to “help” Denny by blowing air out through our own noses to show him how it was done. I’m sure it was a pretty darned hilarious site if you passed us on the highway.

Denny sucked that corn kernel all the way into his sinus cavity and we had to go to a Springfield hospital to have it removed with a very long pair of tweezers. Needless to say, our capital city tour didn’t get off to a great start. I don’t remember anything else about that trip except waiting forever in front of the hospital in a hot car.

* Anyway, the moral of this story, kids, is don’t put stuff up your nose that doesn’t belong there.

…Adding… WGN must be behind the times. I just found a “snorting smarties” video from six years ago.

  32 Comments      


More fun with numbers

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sounds horrible, doesn’t it?…

As the number of complaints about the racket caused by jets using O’Hare Airport’s new runway soar, two Northwest Side aldermen want answers from airport officials about what can be done to turn down the volume.

From September — the last full month before the new east-west runway opened in October — to November, complaints to the city-run toll-free hotline rose 124 percent, according to data compiled by the O’Hare Noise Compatibility Commission.

Aldermen are furious and Congressman Quigley wants flights halted O’Hare’s “fly quiet program” to start at 9 o’clock every night.

* But

The 4,763 complaints filed in November came from 395 people, with each complainant making an average of 12 calls to the hotline, Pride said.

I’m not sure that 395 people ought to control the destiny of one of the world’s most important airports, but that’s just me.

Also, about half of those calls came from the suburbs, so aldermen are all up in arms about two hundred people.

On the other hand, there are some pricey homes in Sauganash and some very connected residents.

  39 Comments      


Rate the new Cross ad

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rep. Tom Cross is running a new radio ad in Springfield, Bloomington and Champaign. Rate it

Skyrocketing debt, record high taxes, the nation’s worst budget deficit.

State government is a mess.

We need new leadership in Springfield.

Illinois voters are facing an important choice for state treasurer.

Tom Cross is running to stop the dishonest budget gimmicks and enforce the state’s balanced budget requirement.

Senator Mike Frerichs supported billions in budget hikes leaving Illinois citizens holding the bag.

Cross is a proven fiscal conservative who will establish a government integrity unit to protect state funds from corruption and fraud.

Frerichs and Governor Quinn raised taxes on families and employers by 67 percent – the most in Illinois history.

Cross has the skills and determination to be a vigilant fiscal watchdog and protect Illinois taxpayers.

For treasurer, the choice is clear.

Tom Cross will clean up the mess…

…fight the waste and corruption…

…and restore fiscal sanity.

Paid for by Cross for Treasurer.

* As if by magic, the Illinois Republican Party backs up Cross with a press release…

Mike Frerichs is launching his campaign for Illinois Treasurer this week. But the people of Illinois have some questions that Sen. Frerichs needs to answer:

1. “Since entering office in 2007, 364,000 fewer people are working in Illinois. In fact, even your own family members have moved their business out of Illinois due to the poor business climate. Do you still maintain that raising taxes on small businesses, like you have, is an effective job creation policy?”

2. “In 2011, you joined with Governor Quinn to raise income taxes by 67%. At the time, you said it would help pay past due bills. Illinois currently has over $7 billion in unpaid bills while at the same time being a regional leader in unemployment. Did your tax increase plan work?”

3. “Twice over the last few years you voted to raise your pay and that of the Governor and other constitutional officers. During this same period, the state was accruing billions in unpaid bills and struggling to maintain funding levels for education and human services. Why were pay raises for politicians made a priority in your spending plans?”

4. “In 2010, even Speaker Madigan conceded that the budget was not balanced, even though there is a state constitutional requirement to have a balanced budget. How do you justify supporting that unbalanced budget?”

5. “During the last fundraising quarter, greater than 50% of your contributions came from public- and private-sector unions and overall have contributed over $270,000 in 2013 alone to your treasurer campaign. How will you avoid conflicts of interest with taxpayers?”

Illinois Republican Party Executive Director Jayme Odom released the following statement:

“Democrat State Senator Mike Frerichs has been a consistent vote for higher taxes, budget-busting spending and job-crushing fees and regulations. Illinois needs a solution-driven Republican Treasurer ready to tackle the economic problems facing our state. Mike Frerichs won’t be part of the solution, because he is already a part of the problem.”

  33 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We had 172 comments last week in response to my call for questions we could ask the gubernatorial candidates. Your task today is to scroll through those comments and choose your one personal favorite.

Thanks.

  27 Comments      


Fun with numbers

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* AP

Recent pension reform legislation has been hailed as historic and groundbreaking, but the $160 billion savings plan ultimately won’t make much of a dent in the state’s growing deficits, a report released Tuesday says.

While the changes to the state’s major public pension systems will eliminate their unfunded liability over the next 25 years, the state’s deficit will increase to $13 billion during that time, according to the University of Illinois’ Institute for Government and Public Affairs study.

Institute researchers had projected a $14 billion deficit - a $1 billion difference - if the state had not implemented pension reform.

“The deficit has gotten off the front burner,” Institute Director Chris Mooney said. “And the pension solution, while important, in terms of (its effect on) the budget, it’s a red herring.”

The study is here.

* The Institute is projecting a $1 billion deficit for this fiscal year that doesn’t actually exist. If that’s the case, then I really gotta wonder about the rest of their numbers.

And even using their possibly flawed numbers, the pension reform (if it survives the courts) will save Illinois on average about a billion dollars per year through 2025, using a “cash budget gap” formula. Annual savings are designed to go way up after that, however.

* Also, the Institute admits that a different projection formula, which accounts for the annual change in unfunded liability, is “arguably more meaningful.” Using that projection of the pension reform law’s impact, you get an average annual savings of $5.5 billion. That’s pretty darned substantial.

And using that “arguably more meaningful” formula, if both the tax hike and the pension reform law remain in place, the average annual budget gap over twelve years is about $800 million. That ain’t great, but it’s far more manageable than repeal of both laws, which gives us an average annual budget deficit of a whopping $10.5 billion. Using the cash budget gap formula, repeal of both the tax hike and pension reform laws would result in an average annual deficit of $8.2 billion.

* So, yeah, not all problems are solved, but they are a whole lot more manageable with a permanent tax hike and the new pension reform laws than without.

  19 Comments      


In which I agree with Kirk Dillard

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More from the Tribune’s coverage of yesterday’s WTTW GOP candidate forum

A generation gap was on display. Asked by the teens what TV show or character inspired them, Brady cited “Bonanza,” which stopped airing first-run shows in 1973. Rutherford said “Sea Hunt,” which ran first-run episodes until 1961. Dillard kissed up to the hosts, listing Ch. 11’s “Chicago Tonight.”

Dillard’s response was his usual “tell your audience what they want to hear” goofiness, but I actually agree with him. I wanted to be on that show so badly when I was young. You knew you’d made it if you were on the show. I was a total devotee.

So after I started my company and the call finally came in the 1990s, I eagerly jumped at the chance. That was in the old days, when the sainted John Callaway was still hosting and the show had a big enough budget to fly me to Meigs Field and pick up my car fare to the studio.

When I moved to Chicago, Phil Ponce kept me coming back on the show as a semi-regular. I never got over the thrill of walking into that studio, even when I grew a bit tired of being used whenever they needed somebody to whack George Ryan. Whatever. I felt like I was near the center of the Chicago political universe.

* And I learned a lot of “tricks” along the way, mainly by forcing myself to watch my appearances over and over again. It wasn’t a pleasant experience at first, but I figured out some stuff that helped improve my future performances.

The first thing to keep in mind is that everything moves fast so you have to jump in whenever you possibly can or the show will be over before you know it. I was on the program during Dan Rutherford’s first ever appearance, and we went out to dinner in Korea Town afterwards where he marveled at how 20 minutes (or whatever it was) just flew by.

And, between us, here’s a little secret I told Rutherford back then: The director will almost always cut to a shot of you if you react to somebody else’s comment. So a shake of the head, a smirk, a little chuckle, a frown, a smile, or whatever seems appropriate can slyly undermine an opponent’s argument, and they won’t even know what hit them unless they watch the show later.

Heh.

* I used to need all that stuff. And I mean need it. At one point, the station put up a photo of myself and my buddy Carlos Hernandez Gomez in the main lobby and the two of us were beyond ecstatic. I eventually found myself becoming upset if I didn’t get the call to discuss a hot topic. I had totally bought in to the hype.

Eventually, I realized I shouldn’t let that effect me so much, and then I finally realized that I could leave Chicago and not worry about such things any more.

But, I gotta tell ya, sometimes I really miss walking into that studio.

  36 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2 *** Two sides of union debate

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune editorial

“I am not an employee of the state. I work from my home. I don’t want the union in my home. I can Norma Rae with the rest of them.”

That’s the sentiment of Pamela Harris, an Illinoisan who provides care for her disabled son, Joshua. He has a rare condition that causes cognitive and physical impairments. For this function, she and some 20,000 other personal assistants receive stipends from the state through Medicaid.

It’s a good program. The providers save the state money by allowing those in need to live in their own homes rather than public facilities, and participants get to choose those who provide their assistance — often family members.

Harris’ disagreement is with two governors, the General Assembly and the Service Employees International Union. In 2003, the legislature passed a law codifying a policy adopted by Rod Blagojevich classifying the caregivers providing rehabilitation services as state employees for purpose of union representation. They get it from SEIU-Healthcare Illinois & Indiana. Those who don’t want to join the union have to pay dues anyway.

* AFSCME’s Henry Bayer responds via e-mail…

You wouldn’t know it from today’s Tribune, but the named plaintiff in the suit, Pamela Harris, whose right to not pay dues they staunchly defend, doesn’t pay dues.

The caregivers who were granted collective bargaining rights by the Governor’s Executive Order voted against representation. Thus, Harris and all of the other caregivers covered by the Executive Order she contests, pay neither dues nor fees, a fact the Trib either doesn’t know or chooses to ignore. Is it ignorance or malice or both on the part of the editors?

They also ignore the fact that in the public sector employees who choose not to join the union are not required to do so. They pay a fee which excludes any costs associated with political or ideological expenditures and only requires them to pay for the services which the union is legally obligated to provide to them, which included, in the case of Illinois, hefty increases in their abysmally low wages and access to affordable health care.

Ms. Harris could take care of her child and not request or receive pay from the state. Then she would not be eligible for union representation. She could also hire someone to care for her child. She could pay those wages herself, and the individual providing those services would remain outside the purview of the Executive Order.

Finally, they fail to point out that caring for the disabled is a state responsibility

She has chosen to ask the state to pay for her services in the care for her loved one. She was not required by the law to do so, but has understandably exercised that right.

Why would she or the Trib think that she should have the right to receive a state paycheck for her services, but the state should have no right to declare her, or anyone else receiving a state paycheck, a state employee?

Her attitude of entitlement is one I thought the Tribune rejected.

Thoughts?

*** UPDATE *** From the Bruce Rauner campaign…

The United States Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today in Harris v. Quinn. In the case, Pam Harris is challenging Illinois’ requirements that home care providers are designated as government employees and forced to provide union dues even though they are hired by the individuals for whom they provide care. Moreover, Harris only provides care for her son.

“People like Pam Harris, who only wants to care for her own child, should not be forced to join and pay into government unions. Her case is a clear example of government union overreach and anyone who wants to be governor of Illinois should make clear where they stand on it,” said Bruce Rauner. “Pam Harris is dedicating her life to her child and she deserves the freedom to decide herself whether or not she joins a government union.”

*** UPDATE 2 *** From a press release…

Illinois State Representative and candidate for Illinois State Treasurer Tom Cross today released the following statement on the United States Supreme Court hearing oral arguments in Harris v. Quinn. The case focuses on challenging executive orders signed by Governors Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn that force Illinois home-care workers to join unions, some of which are spending member dues on political causes that are not necessarily supported by the organizations’ membership:

“I believe forcing Illinois home-care workers to join a union and pay labor dues against their will violates both their right to free association and freedom of speech. For too long, the leadership in Illinois has focused on rewarding special interests as opposed to making common sense decisions that are fiscally prudent and defend core individual rights. It is not the job of state government to pick winners and losers, in this case seeking to bolster falling union membership; instead, elected leaders must put the common good before all else. My hope is the Supreme Court hears the arguments in this case and comes to the conclusion that Illinois’ actions are unconstitutional and cannot be allowed to stand.”

  73 Comments      


Wheels grinding slowly

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

Judges in Cook County have begun revoking inmates’ sentences to boot camp and resentencing them instead to prison in response to a Chicago Sun-Times investigation that revealed hundreds of violent offenders were improperly sentenced to the program.

In November, the newspaper reported that violent criminals were being sent to boot camp, an alternative to prison with a focus on rehabilitation. Under Illinois law, judges are supposed to send only nonviolent criminals to the boot camp at the Cook County Jail.

In one case, a judge sentenced a convicted armed robber to the four-month boot-camp program rather than give him the sentence the law calls for — six to 30 years in prison without the possibility of parole. Less than two years after completing the program, the man was accused of killing a college student. […]

After the Sun-Times’ investigation was published, Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart wrote to the county’s judges, asking them to confirm that 56 inmates who’d been sentenced to boot camp — Chaney among them — had been properly sentenced. Those inmates were being held in jail, awaiting placement in the program.

Since then, 26 inmates have been confirmed as eligible for boot camp and admitted into what’s formally called the Vocational Rehabilitation Impact Center. Beside Chaney, judges also have revoked the boot-camp sentences of three other inmates and sent them to prison. The other cases are still pending, according to the sheriff’s office.

Sheriff Dart wrote that letter on December 10th. And in all that time they still have 26 cases still pending?

  15 Comments      


Unclear on the concepts

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Kirk Dillard unveiled a proposal yesterday to lower the state’s gasoline sales tax by 3 percentage points and then using the remaining 2 percent state sales tax to fund a $1 billion capital program for roads and bridges

“This will save a typical family in Illinois nearly $200 a year while also putting people to work on road and bridge projects that are in dire need of repair,” Dillard said in a press release.

OK, first of all, in nominal dollars, Illinois’ gross state product was $644 billion in 2012. So, a $1 billion construction project represents just 0.16 percent of GSP. Not a lot of relative growth from something like that.

More importantly, though, the plan would cut state coffers by $550 million (including the $100 million taken out of circulation for capital projects). How would he cover that hole? By “growing the economy,” Dillard told reporters yesterday.

Sorry, but hope ain’t a plan.

* Then there were the contradictions

“Illinois has two taxes on gas and I propose, using, getting rid of the second one — as I long have,” said Dillard, who noted the state also has a 19-cent per gallon tax on gasoline. […]

Dillard in the past has recommended shifting revenues from the sales tax on gasoline to replace the use of video poker money as a source for state bond-funded public works projects. On Monday, he said video poker was in Illinois to stay.

Dillard is finally getting closer scrutiny from the Chicago media, and it ain’t great. Natasha Korecki points out a few in her most recent column and ends it this way

When the Sun-Times asked Dillard whether rumors were true that he was thinking about voting against the pension bill to keep the possibility open for union support, Dillard was adamant: “I always supported pension reform,” he said then. “I can’t imagine I wouldn’t be [in support].”

He then voted against it.

So taking it all into account is Dillard’s clout issue just “one story”?

Maybe.

But if he isn’t careful, doubts about his credibility may begin to look like a “perpetual pattern.”

* Not to mention that Dillard and two of the other three Republican candidates definitely want the state income tax to sunset on schedule, which blows a $3.6 billion hole in state revenues the first full year of implementation, according to the governor’s budget office.

With that in mind

[Sen. Bill Brady], the only GOP candidate for governor who supported a new law in December curbing state employee pension increases aimed at closing the state’s $100 billion unfunded liability, also said the measure’s passage would mean the scheduled reduction in the state’s income tax rate should go on as scheduled in January 2015.

“It will save us at least $1 billion or $1.2 billion in the first year, which lets the income tax go away,” Brady said.

Only in Fantasyland is that even remotely true.

  28 Comments      


“One of the worst accounting frauds ever”

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Tribune takes a long look at one of Bruce Rauner’s prized GTCR acquisitions, Lason, Inc

A few months after praising its performance, Rauner resigned from its board of directors just as the company’s high-flying stock began to crater. Lason imploded amid allegations by investors and criminal investigators that top executives cooked the books to boost the company’s value.

Neither Rauner nor his partners at the venture firm GTCR were accused of any wrongdoing. The firm netted at least $32 million from its investment by selling almost all of its stock before the earnings scandal became public. However, records show, other investors and lenders lost about $285 million as a result of the systematic accounting fraud, and three top executives went to prison. […]

Prosecutors alleged that for most of that time — from approximately 1997 through early 2000 — Lason’s success was bolstered by bookkeeping sleight of hand. The maneuver, referred to around the office as “Tailwind,” was orchestrated primarily by William Rauwerdink, Lason’s executive vice president and chief financial officer.

Rauwerdink, who eventually became a company director as well, was hired by Rauner and fellow board members in 1996 just months after he was sanctioned and fined more than $200,000 by the SEC over insider trading allegations at his previous job. He neither admitted nor denied the allegations, Lason noted in an annual report to the SEC.

Messinger told federal investigators the Tailwind scheme counted on manipulating financial data from newly acquired companies to inflate Lason earnings, driving up the stock price while masking Lason’s real financial condition. But the scheme began to unravel as acquisitions slowed and it became difficult to meet Wall Street expectations with accounting tricks alone.

The solution of the Lason conspirators was to make up $13 million in anticipated revenues from work that wasn’t real, according to court records. To mislead investors and stock analysts, the false numbers were highlighted in a company press release distributed in late October 1999. The figures were also folded into an official report filed with the SEC on Nov. 15 that wrongly claimed operating income in the third quarter of 1999 had far exceeded the same period the year before. […]

[Peter J. Henning, an expert on securities fraud and white collar crime] said Lason might be recalled as “one of the worst accounting frauds ever” had it not been upstaged by similar scandals at much bigger companies — Enron and WorldCom. […]

Go read the whole thing.

  31 Comments      


So far, so good

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

A solid week of horribly negative media coverage of Bruce Rauner was apparently outweighed by lots and lots of television ads because his numbers are still rising.

A new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll found that Rauner’s lead increased in the Republican gubernatorial primary since late November.

The poll of 1,139 likely Republican primary voters taken January 14th found Rauner getting 34 percent of the vote, with state Sen. Bill Brady at 17 percent, Treasurer Dan Rutherford at 15 percent and state Sen. Kirk Dillard bringing up the rear at 9 percent.

A We Ask America poll taken November 26th after Rauner launched his holiday season TV ad blitz showed Rauner leading with 26 percent, to Brady’s 18 percent, to Rutherford’s 17 percent to Dillard’s 10 percent. Those numbers confirmed a Public Policy Polling survey taken just days before, which had Rauner leading with 24 percent.

So, essentially, the rest of the pack hasn’t moved at all, while Rauner has added eight points to his lead. Last week’s poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

“Buoyed by a constant stream of quality TV ads, Mr. Rauner continues to gain ground,” said We Ask America pollster Greg Durham. “For now, it does not appear the negative press he’s recently received has resulted in producing any significant speed bumps. This race is far from settled, but the Rauner camp must feel like their plan is working.”

As you already know, twin scandals have buffeted Rauner’s campaign since the holiday season ended. He’s been hammered extensively for a December comment that surfaced in early January of Rauner demanding that the minimum wage be cut by a dollar an hour. Last week, the media focused on Rauner’s successful effort to clout his suburban daughter into a Chicago public school, followed by a $250,000 contribution to that school.

But “earned media” attacks don’t work like they used to, particularly in GOP primaries where a hardcore strand of voters tends to discount the “mainstream media.”

Most importantly, though, is that none of Rauner’s opponents have yet to run a single TV ad. Paid media, and in particular television, moves numbers. Period. End of story. And Rauner has had the TV all to himself.

Rauner’s massive TV spending is having a profound impact. Just 25 percent of GOP primary voters say they’re undecided. Rauner leads in almost every geographic region in the state, with his biggest numbers racked up in the vote rich collar counties. There, Rauner scores a whopping 44 percent. He’s also way ahead in suburban Cook County, with 37 percent. And he has 27 percent in Downstate, which puts him 8 points ahead of both Brady and Rutherford. Treasurer Rutherford leads in Chicago, according to the poll, but only by three points.

Speaking of Treasurer Rutherford, he reported raising about $400,000 in the fourth quarter last year and had just under $1.4 million in his campaign bank account.

When he puts that money on TV, Rutherford could take advantage of any effect that labor unions will have on the primary. If the upcoming multimillion dollar labor union-financed TV advertising blitz manages to disqualify Rauner in GOP voters’ minds, then Rutherford’s ads could convince those voters to head his way.

Right now, though, Republican primary voters are divided on whom they would choose if Rauner is taken out of the equation.

We asked Rauner supporters: “If information emerged that would cause you to withdraw your support for Bruce Rauner, for whom would you vote?”

According to the poll, 22 percent of former Rauner backers would choose Rutherford, 20 percent picked Brady and 16 percent backed Dillard. But 42 percent remained undecided.

Sen. Brady has raised just about zero cash in the last six months and Sen. Dillard’s campaign is barely staying afloat. So the poll and common sense indicate that Rutherford could be the most likely candidate to take advantage when the union money starts pouring in against Rauner.

But Rauner could then start attacking Rutherford, and anybody else who starts climbing in the polls. It’s gonna get complicated.

And that’s very important to remember. The poll shows what it shows on the day it was taken. But voters can only express a preference based on the information they currently have, and there will be a whole lot more info - mostly bad - coming very soon.

Those last two paragraphs are absolutely necessary to keep in mind as this thing moves forward. 2010 showed how volatile the Republican primary electorate can be, and that’s why I voted “No” last week on our question which asked whether anybody should drop out.

Carol Marin has an alternate take here.

  27 Comments      


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