A solid week of horribly negative media coverage of Bruce Rauner was apparently outweighed by lots and lots of television ads because his numbers are still rising.
A new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll found that Rauner’s lead increased in the Republican gubernatorial primary since late November.
The poll of 1,139 likely Republican primary voters taken January 14th found Rauner getting 34 percent of the vote, with state Sen. Bill Brady at 17 percent, Treasurer Dan Rutherford at 15 percent and state Sen. Kirk Dillard bringing up the rear at 9 percent.
A We Ask America poll taken November 26th after Rauner launched his holiday season TV ad blitz showed Rauner leading with 26 percent, to Brady’s 18 percent, to Rutherford’s 17 percent to Dillard’s 10 percent. Those numbers confirmed a Public Policy Polling survey taken just days before, which had Rauner leading with 24 percent.
So, essentially, the rest of the pack hasn’t moved at all, while Rauner has added eight points to his lead. Last week’s poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
“Buoyed by a constant stream of quality TV ads, Mr. Rauner continues to gain ground,” said We Ask America pollster Greg Durham. “For now, it does not appear the negative press he’s recently received has resulted in producing any significant speed bumps. This race is far from settled, but the Rauner camp must feel like their plan is working.”
As you already know, twin scandals have buffeted Rauner’s campaign since the holiday season ended. He’s been hammered extensively for a December comment that surfaced in early January of Rauner demanding that the minimum wage be cut by a dollar an hour. Last week, the media focused on Rauner’s successful effort to clout his suburban daughter into a Chicago public school, followed by a $250,000 contribution to that school.
But “earned media” attacks don’t work like they used to, particularly in GOP primaries where a hardcore strand of voters tends to discount the “mainstream media.”
Most importantly, though, is that none of Rauner’s opponents have yet to run a single TV ad. Paid media, and in particular television, moves numbers. Period. End of story. And Rauner has had the TV all to himself.
Rauner’s massive TV spending is having a profound impact. Just 25 percent of GOP primary voters say they’re undecided. Rauner leads in almost every geographic region in the state, with his biggest numbers racked up in the vote rich collar counties. There, Rauner scores a whopping 44 percent. He’s also way ahead in suburban Cook County, with 37 percent. And he has 27 percent in Downstate, which puts him 8 points ahead of both Brady and Rutherford. Treasurer Rutherford leads in Chicago, according to the poll, but only by three points.
Speaking of Treasurer Rutherford, he reported raising about $400,000 in the fourth quarter last year and had just under $1.4 million in his campaign bank account.
When he puts that money on TV, Rutherford could take advantage of any effect that labor unions will have on the primary. If the upcoming multimillion dollar labor union-financed TV advertising blitz manages to disqualify Rauner in GOP voters’ minds, then Rutherford’s ads could convince those voters to head his way.
Right now, though, Republican primary voters are divided on whom they would choose if Rauner is taken out of the equation.
We asked Rauner supporters: “If information emerged that would cause you to withdraw your support for Bruce Rauner, for whom would you vote?”
According to the poll, 22 percent of former Rauner backers would choose Rutherford, 20 percent picked Brady and 16 percent backed Dillard. But 42 percent remained undecided.
Sen. Brady has raised just about zero cash in the last six months and Sen. Dillard’s campaign is barely staying afloat. So the poll and common sense indicate that Rutherford could be the most likely candidate to take advantage when the union money starts pouring in against Rauner.
But Rauner could then start attacking Rutherford, and anybody else who starts climbing in the polls. It’s gonna get complicated.
And that’s very important to remember. The poll shows what it shows on the day it was taken. But voters can only express a preference based on the information they currently have, and there will be a whole lot more info - mostly bad - coming very soon.
Those last two paragraphs are absolutely necessary to keep in mind as this thing moves forward. 2010 showed how volatile the Republican primary electorate can be, and that’s why I voted “No” last week on our question which asked whether anybody should drop out.