* Tribune…
Rauner said his campaign to collect enough signatures to put a measure on the ballot asking voters to amend the constitution to enact term limits has collected 320,000 signatures so far.
* That’s a bit more than he said he had almost a week ago…
“I’ve brought in U.S. Term Limits, an independent group, to acquire 300,000 signatures by May 4,” Rauner said at the town hall, one of several stops on a suburban bus tour. “They already have 310,000 but we probably need 450,000 to net down to 300,000.”
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Slight uptick detected
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As I told you last week, We Ask America is monitoring who is voting early and absentee in the Republican primary.
Last week didn’t show much if any actual uptick in Democratic involvement. Independents were down six points from 2010, and Republicans and Democrats were up three points each as a share of the total.
As explained before, a Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted.
The final numbers for early and absentees are showing a little something, however…
So, the final early/absentee tally is more Democratic than four years ago, but it’s also more Republican and less independent.
And while there are slightly more Democrats voting than normal, after accounting for the drop in independents. it’s only about 800 votes out of almost 78,000 cast so far. At least, that’s my read.
Keep in mind this is only early and absentee voting. Things could be different tomorrow.
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Photos of the day
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bruce Rauner and dog…
* Zombies in the mail box…
* Bill Brady and running mate…
* And last but not least…
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Cut those guys over there!!!
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Southern Illinoisan ran an editorial with the headline “More school cuts? Look somewhere else!”…
The school funding formula is a good place to start the work – and stop the bleeding from $800 million in education cuts since 2009. What’s needed is public support for a bipartisan reform plan touted by former Gov. Jim Edgar and members of a senate education committee. It would put most state education funding into one account, then require districts, including over-funded Chicago, to demonstrate their needs before receiving any funds. As we’ve previously said, Chicago currently receives a percentage of all state education dollars to spend at its own discretion – a system that yields the city hundreds of millions more than if it were held to the same standard as other school districts.
It’s time to take education off the chopping block.
We agree with Matt Vanover of the Illinois State Board of Education. “ … the future of Illinois really depends on how well we teach our students right now,” he said. “If we continue to cut our education, if we continue to cut back on K-12 learning, then we’re not going to have a workforce that’s going to be attractive to companies that want to come here.”
State budget cuts are coming. That seems certain. We don’t envy our lawmakers the task of putting the state’s finances in order, even though it’s one they deserve for many years of runaway spending. This time, lawmakers need to consider other alternatives to education cuts – including an overdue revision of the state school funding formula – before sharpening their budget knives.
The people of Illinois can’t afford the eventual price of more educational cuts – a further-damaged state business climate, more unskilled and idled workers, and high-priced strategies to deal with increases in crimes and social problems.
So, don’t cut education funding because that would be really bad for the state, except for Chicago, which obviously gets way too much money, so cuts there won’t hurt anything or anyone no matter what. There will be no “increases in crimes and social problems” if Chicago school dollars are cut. No impact on the business climate. No additional unskilled and idled workers.
Yeah.
That’s the ticket.
* Meanwhile, in the real world, Mark Brown writes about Fenger High School principal Elizabeth Dozier, who has emerged as the only real hero so far in CNN’s “Chicagoland” series…
To those of us who have trekked down to Roseland in recent years to witness the successes Dozier and her team have achieved at Fenger, the national attention is well deserved. That’s why I returned to Fenger this week to interview her.
She seemed wearier than her bubbly norm, most likely because she was fighting a cold that reduced her voice to a hoarse whisper.
But this also is a difficult period at Fenger, perhaps the toughest since Dozier’s first year in 2009 when, just weeks into the start of classes, student Derrion Albert was beaten to death on his way home from school.
That also was the first year Fenger received a $1.6 million annual federal grant that provided enough resources not only to help restore order but to give students a fighting chance at success.
Now, it’s Fenger’s first year without the federal money, and coupled with other CPS cuts, there’s a strain Dozier doesn’t try to hide.
“It stresses the building out. I think everyone is feeling it this year,” said Dozier, who has tried to minimize the impact on students by doubling up duties for faculty and staff.
But as everyone learns who tries to do more with less, there are limits. An average class size of 20 has jumped to 30, a huge difference for a student body that needs help with so much more than understanding the homework.
Yeah, so go ahead and cut Fenger’s state money even further. I’m sure it won’t do any harm whatsoever.
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Question of the day
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the twitters…
I tend to think more about the over-worked, under-paid, bone-tired staffers at times like this, but he has a good point, so…
* The Question: Who is in your thoughts on this day before the 2014 primary and why?
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Fun with numbers
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Adam Andrzejewski sent out a provocative e-mail last week. It began with a quote from a state legislator…
“Governor Quinn is driving a bus through loopholes in the Illinois procurement code.”
State Representative Dwight Kay (R-Glen Carbon)
* Andrzejewski continued…
Not even Rod Blagojevich thought of these loopholes…
Gov. Quinn is using intergovernmental agreements and grants to circumvent a competitive bidding process. Many thanks to Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar-Topinka for providing the data: total intergovernmental agreements (IGA) outside of a bid process totaled $1.8 billion (2013) and $5.2 billion since 2010!
* Andrzejewski claims IGA’s and grants have skyrocketed since the days of Rod Blagojevich…
AN EXPLOSION OF NO-BID GOODIES
Gov. Quinn’s total dollars in no-bid contracts and grants are 2,823% higher than the Blagojevich administration. Bidding a contract is important for transparency, competitive pricing, accountability and oversight.
* So I checked with the governor’s budget office. What’s going on here? They explained that if you take a look at the list AA compiled, you’ll see that these are grants to local governments, mainly due to the capital program. Rod Blagojevich had no capital program, hence the huge increase.
I communicated this to Andrzejewski and this was his response…
The point is not about the appropriation vehicle- capitol bill or otherwise. It’s about competitively bidding the contracts. It’s about distributing appropriated money in a manner where taxpayers are protected. We are not concerned with the appropriation vehicle, at this point. Our point is that a competitive procurement process has been undermined by loopholes in the code. Quinn is has driven $5.2 billion through those loopholes.
* But how is the procurement process undermined? These are grants to local governments for projects already in the pipeline and which, apparently, were bid at the local level. How do you bid grants like that? His response…
First, citizens needed to know the gross scale of growth in intergovernmental contracts/grants and you have to admit that $5.2 billion in four years with a topline 2,823% increase are big numbers. Illinois still has billions in unpaid vendor bills from general operations.
Secondly, we separately broke out the intergovernmental (IGA) contracts. The IGA’s have increased by 900% in the Quinn administration, from $44 million to $438 million last year. Again, at this point, we are not concerned with the funding purpose (construction, IT, etc.). Transparency, accountability and competition are thwarted with no-bid intergovernmental contracts. Quinn’s put “IGA contracting” on steroids.
* But, again, how do you bid that stuff? His response…
In my “first point” below, I covered the answer to your question below. In the “second point,” I cover the intergovernmental agreement contracts– and the gross majority of those can always go through a procurement process no matter what the purpose. Quinn must defend why it’s a 900% increase in no-bid IGA CONTRACTS. The only defense is the standard, “trust us we are saving you money.”
* I pointed out, yet again, that there was no capital program under Rod. His response…
Then it’s an interesting “defense” when the state is broke and billions are owed to vendors. To allow a 900% increase in no-bid contracts, to not frugally steward a half billion of hard earned taxpayer dollars, just because the lawmakers appropriated the money pot, is just another reason Illinois has net outward migration.
At that point, I gave up.
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#MassiveFail
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz looks at organized labor’s failures…
Unions kicked off the season by impotently watching as dozens of their Springfield allies abandoned ship and voted for a tough pension reform law that now needs only the final approval of the Illinois Supreme Court. More recently, they’ve spent nearly $4 million on what (unless all the polls are wrong) was a failed bid to prevent the virulently anti-labor Bruce Rauner from becoming the GOP nominee for governor. And when lawmakers return to Springfield after the March 18 elections, item one on the agenda is more pension cuts, this time for city and Chicago Public Schools workers.
“It’s really awful what’s happened,” concedes one top labor honcho, speaking privately. “I just don’t know right now if this movement has the capacity to build the next movement.”
I don’t know either. But even if it knocks off a couple of unfriendly lawmakers on March 18, Illinois’ labor movement risks becoming a chapter in the history books—right next to the one on Jimmy Hoffa. The question is: What should the movement do?
Part of the solution, I suspect, is putting someone in charge of the notoriously fractious labor “movement.” Someone who can act decisively.
That’s what was wrong with the multimillion-dollar TV blitz against Mr. Rauner. It started too late with too little, lacked focus and suffered from an identity crisis over whether to concentrate on taking out Mr. Rauner or electing someone else. The labor chiefs never quite figured out the answers. So, in consensus fashion, they did a little of this and a little of that—ineffectively. And now there’s less money available for November.
I wrote a long addendum to Greg’s piece, and then decided to save it for subscribers. So… discuss among yourselves.
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Today’s quotables
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kirk Dillard…
“People are catching on to the fact that Bruce Rauner is a social liberal, and a vacation buddy and a member of Rahm Emanuel’s inner circle,” Dillard said. “And buyers better beware. They better know who Bruce Rauner is. He has a ton of scandals in his business background with many people that were his associates in federal penitentiaries. We’ve been down that road with Rod Blagojevich before.”
Dillard disputed Rauner’s claim to be a political outsider.
“He’s an insider to the max. He’s the worst kind of insider — the one that does the buying,” he said.
* From NPR…
Democrats are eager to paint Rauner as the second coming of Mitt Romney, only worse — an arrogant rich guy seeking to buy his way into top political office.
“There is hardly a more flawed candidate running for office in the country today,” claims Quinn consultant Mark Mellman. “He’s done Romney-like dismemberment of companies to his own benefit.”
* From Politico…
“I believe Rauner’s probably the only one who could beat Quinn,” said a veteran Democrat operative who did not want to be named. “The message he has is resonating in the Republican Party, but I think it is also resonating with independents and disenchanted Democrats. … And Rauner’s run a very good campaign, he’s proven to be a very good candidate.”
Some outside observers agree Republicans have a good shot at this one if Rauner wins the nomination on Tuesday.
“You’re starting with the fact that it’s a blue state, so for a Republican to win in Illinois, the right set of factors have to come in place,” said Brad McMillan, former chief of staff to then-Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) who runs Bradley University’s public service institute. […]
But Democratic strategist Pete Giangreco, who ran Bill Daley’s short-lived primary challenge of Quinn before the former White House chief of staff dropped out, said the governor couldn’t pick a better challenger than Rauner.
“He’s probably the best guy for Quinn to run against,” Giangreco said. “Bruce Rauner is as phony as a $2 billion bill. This is a guy who has spent a record amount of his own money and he has defined himself negatively in a lot of people’s minds because all they know about him is he’s a billionaire and they see these ads where he looks like such a phony. They don’t buy him as a reformer. … And you can’t say that about Pat Quinn, that he’s dishonest. People don’t buy that.”
* Crain’s…
Going into this election, Mr. Quinn’s approval ratings are even worse than in 2010. The spread has widened, with 34 percent saying he has done a good job and 60 percent saying he has not, according to Raleigh, N.C.-based Public Policy Polling’s latest survey in November.
Since then, however, Mr. Quinn had perhaps the biggest accomplishment of his term, getting statewide pension reform enacted.
“In the final analysis, Quinn doesn’t run against his job approval rating, he runs against another human being,” says David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon institute.
* New York Times…
“It’ll be a rock ’em, sock ’em campaign,” Mr. Quinn acknowledged last week as he left a church basement in Chicago’s Pilsen neighborhood, where he was promoting efforts to raise the state’s minimum wage. “This is a tough state politically,” said Mr. Quinn, whose approval ratings, at times, have dipped to miserable lows.
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Caption contest!
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sen. Mike Frerichs, the Democratic candidate for state treasurer…
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The other Rauner/Walker comparison
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Last week, we looked at a comparison between Bruce Rauner and former Gov. Dan Walker. Today, let’s look at a comparison with a different Walker. From the AP…
When superrich Republican Bruce Rauner decided to run for governor of Illinois, it was clear this wouldn’t be the kind of race the state was accustomed to. Rauner, who made his fortune as a venture capitalist, was new to campaigning and bragged of being beholden to no one. He came out swinging at entrenched special interests and “government union bosses” with an intensity not seen before. […]
“I think all the national unions fear they’ll have another Scott Walker on their hands if he should come in,” said Don Rose, a longtime Chicago political analyst, referring to the Republican governor of Wisconsin who stripped state employee unions of most of their bargaining powers after his election in 2010. […]
Rauner, who made $53 million in 2012 but portrays himself as an everyman in a Carhartt jacket who loves hunting and fishing, is attempting to join the list of Republican business executives who have won office in recent years with no elective experience. They include former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a former Eli Lilly official; Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, CEO of a plastics company, and Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, former CEO of the Gateway computer company. They ran as problem-solvers in states with serious economic problems.
Rauner has cited Walker and Snyder – who also championed anti-union policies_as his role models.
* Bloomberg…
“Illinois is part of the pattern — these rich folks are going wherever they see an opportunity, just like they did in Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan,” said Henry Bayer, executive director of the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees Council 31, representing 95,000 workers and retirees in the state. “Illinois is experiencing some real difficulties, so they think they can make some inroads.” […]
Democrats hold veto-proof majorities in the Illinois Senate and House of Representatives, which would make it difficult for a Republican governor to enact his agenda. Organized labor, though, was caught off guard by Walker and union-weakening moves in other states. […]
Since Walker pushed through collective-bargaining restrictions in 2011, membership in Wisconsin Afscme, the state where the union was born, has plunged 60 percent. Republican governors and legislatures in Indiana and Michigan passed laws exempting nonunion employees from paying dues, the first of their type in the industrial Midwest. Republicans pushed similar legislation in Missouri, where Democratic Governor Jay Nixon has vowed to veto it.
“The folks in Illinois sort of feel like they’re surrounded,” said Robert Bruno, a professor of labor and employment relations at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. […]
“Bashing labor unions resonates with the Republican electorate,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. “And the people of Illinois have had a bellyful of politics as usual.”
Expect to see a whole lot more of this particular comparison in the coming months.
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I’m really glad this one is over
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Way back in 1992, I did a story about Dan Rutherford’s first run for the Illinois House of Representatives.
The House Democrats back then were quietly spreading rumors about Rutherford’s private life, hoping that the conservative, rural district would refuse to support someone who they said seemed to be gay. It was a classic “barber shop” play. Go where people hang out, like barber shops and taverns, and start spreading a rumor. Spread that rumor in enough places, and pretty soon lots of folks would eventually hear it and spread it themselves.
Without mentioning Rutherford’s name, I wrote that I knew the district pretty well. I didn’t reveal it in the story at the time, but I was raised on a farm in Iroquois County and my mom was born in Pontiac, near where Rutherford lives.
I wrote all those years ago that the Democrats were deluding themselves. Those voters weren’t just conservatives, they were dyed in the wool Republicans. They’d take a Republican over a Democrat any day of the week, pretty much no matter what the grapevine was saying. All the Democrats were doing was embarrassing themselves, I wrote, and they ought to cut it out. Rutherford won, of course. The Democrats’ tactic failed.
I remembered that story when the Sun-Times and the Tribune started publishing “exposés” about how Treasurer Rutherford had a habit of staying in the same hotel room or apartment with his male travel aide on some government and political trips. These stories served little apparent purpose other than to try and gin up that very same rumor mill about the candidate. The pieces were almost adolescently prurient in nature.
As with the Democrats almost 22 years ago, the newspapers never should’ve done that and should’ve instead risen above such nonsense.
The real angle here is that insiders say the young man in question was not comfortable with the arrangement. He has not, to my knowledge, alleged that Rutherford did anything specifically untoward, it’s just that he reportedly didn’t want to continue sharing rooms with his male boss. The story buttresses accounts that Rutherford puts some very weird pressure on some of his employees.
But this young man’s name was dragged through some very unseemly mud by the two largest newspapers in his home state. It wasn’t fair to him, let alone the whisper campaign damage it did to Rutherford.
Ten years after I wrote that first story in 1992, I was talking with Rutherford about a news item in his local paper about how he’d used campaign money for his legislative office expenses. The expenses appeared perfectly legal, but he was one of only a handful of people who were doing it at the time, so he caught some heat for it.
I suggested to Rutherford that this story might come back to haunt him if he attempted to move up to statewide office (Rutherford has been running for governor almost since he could walk).
Rutherford looked at me, got real quiet and then said, “Rich, you and I both know that if they come after me about something it won’t be about something like this.”
How right he was.
Last week, a reporter tweeted that Rutherford had decided to bar reporters from his election night party.
It’s hard to blame the guy.
Rutherford’s campaign says that a Chicago Tribune reporter showed up at the home of Rutherford’s mother at 9:30 one night to ask her highly personal questions about her son.
The campaign also confirmed reports I’d heard that the paper pursued the parents of Rutherford’s travel aide to demand to know if their son was gay after reports surfaced that the two men had shared rooms together. And the campaign confirmed that the Tribune pursued the aide’s ex-girlfriend with the same questions.
Look, Rutherford made some mistakes. Even some big mistakes.
But staking out a guy’s mom late at night and hounding the parents and ex-girlfriend of an employee with horribly inappropriate accusations seems way over the line to me. I mean, it’s not like Rutherford shot a man just to watch him die.
I always thought we were above the disgusting Hollywood paparazzi snooping level here in Illinois. I suppose I was wrong.
* Related…
* Dale Risinger endorses Kirk Dillard, abandons Dan Rutherford
* Rutherford winds down gov campaign with a whisper
* Rutherford to close Election night party to press
* Rutherford Staying Quiet During Election Night
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Edgar: Money matters and the polls are wrong
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jim Edgar appeared with Sen. Kirk Dillard at campaign stops over the weekend…
Edgar said Rauner’s position as frontrunner is due to his flush campaign fund. Rauner has pumped $6 million of his own money into his campaign, however, he’s raised more than $6 million from others, including huge donations from some of the wealthiest people in the state.
“If he had the same amount of money as Kirk Dillard, Kirk Dillard would be ahead of him 3 to 1 in the polls today,” Edgar contended. “It’s purely money in my estimation, why he has the leads he has in he polls. The other thing I would also caution you. It’s very difficult to poll in a primary. Those numbers are not accurate. Turnout is the key. You don’t know what the turnout’s going to be. You don’t know what the cross over votes are going to be.”
Edgar says Rauner is ahead because of money and the polls are wrong. But isn’t that a wee bit contradictory?
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Poll shows Rauner holding on to large lead
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The latest from We Ask America as Bruce Rauner holding in the mid 40s. The poll of 1,126 likely GOP voters was taken last night. Numbers in parentheses are from a March 11th WAA poll…
Bill Brady 19% (19%)
Kirk Dillard 27% (26%)
Bruce Rauner 44% (46%)
Dan Rutherford 9% (9%)
Margin of error was ± 3 percent.
* The firm took those poll results and then calculated how many votes Sen. Dillard would need from unexpected crossovers to catch Rauner. If it’s a traditional 750,000 voter turnout, Dillard would need 126,600 outside votes to win. If the turnout is 800,000, Dillard would need 135,040 new crossovers to win…
That many votes represents a whole lotta love the unions have to generate for their crossover effort. Nothing of this scope has ever been accomplished in Illinois. Still, there may be enough crossover to move numbers tomorrow. But a few won’t be enough.
Dillard needs a stampede.
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