Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Slight uptick detected
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Slight uptick detected

Monday, Mar 17, 2014

* As I told you last week, We Ask America is monitoring who is voting early and absentee in the Republican primary.

Last week didn’t show much if any actual uptick in Democratic involvement. Independents were down six points from 2010, and Republicans and Democrats were up three points each as a share of the total.

As explained before, a Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted.

The final numbers for early and absentees are showing a little something, however…

So, the final early/absentee tally is more Democratic than four years ago, but it’s also more Republican and less independent.

And while there are slightly more Democrats voting than normal, after accounting for the drop in independents. it’s only about 800 votes out of almost 78,000 cast so far. At least, that’s my read.

Keep in mind this is only early and absentee voting. Things could be different tomorrow.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

26 Comments
  1. - Mighty M. Mouse - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:54 pm:

    I’m sure it must be my inadequacy but I tried and have not been able to understand your columns in the absence of some kind of explanatory headings.


  2. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:56 pm:

    What is the purpose of listing “Independents?” Illinois has a closed primary system, so voters need to declare themselves by party.


  3. - Northern Will - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:58 pm:

    Can you imagine what will happen if unions turn out enough Dem’s to give Dillard the nomination? If voter turnout is around 850-900k things might get interesting tomorrow night…


  4. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:59 pm:

    For the 4 GOP Guv candidates, and actually for all candidates looking at absentee ballots in general;

    Unless you know YOUR “Pluses” voted early, took absentees, abc can count how many you have in the “bank”, this is Folly to the actual impact it will have on your actual campaign.

    Go against a good precinct captain and watch the gloating of 30, 40… 50 absentee ballots, and the captain knowing 95% of those are his “Pluses”

    What we see is a …trend, but nothing points to anyone driving the early voting to any of those 4 specifically from the campaign operations, so any and all the four could be both “exited” and “scared” by these events.


  5. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:01 pm:

    ===What is the purpose of listing “Independents?===

    Sigh.

    If you saw last week’s post, it’s all explained.


  6. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:02 pm:

    Sorry, I did not read that post. What date was it? I will go back and check.


  7. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    ===if unions turn out enough Dem’s to give Dillard the nomination?===

    As explained earlier today, at minimum they’d need to turn out 126,000 new GOP primary voters to win.

    Ever try to completely change the face of a partisan primary? Ever try to do that in a few weeks? Ever try to do that for a guy who isn’t all that beloved to begin with?

    I want what you’re smoking.


  8. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Okay, I see. Anyone who has not cast a primary vote since 2008.


  9. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    Well it makes perfect sense that Republican would be up a bit and Independent down because of the high number of Independents in 2010 who pulled GOP ballots. Those who took part in the primary 4 years ago and are voting again would be Republican now. I would think that if you never voted in primaries before 2010 and were compelled to vote in the GOP despite a close race for the DEM nomination for governor and another race for the DEM senate race, you were motivated at least in part by the conservative groundswell of 2010.

    Either way, no reason, as of yet, to believe in a Dillard miracle.


  10. - Dwarf - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:13 pm:

    I wonder if the increase has more to do with people getting comfortable with early voting? I’ve seen some of the early voter and absentee lists in my area and they are traditional D and R voters who just won’t be coming into the polling place tomorrow. I haven’t seen a trend of new voters or traditional Rs or Ds switching ballot requests. Then again, I’m not from DuPage or Will either.


  11. - Adam Smith - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    As noted, this all comes down to real numbers. As WAA noted in their tracker this morning, Dillard needs at least 125,000 dems to cross over and all vote for him to be able to make up for the 20-point deficit he is showing consistently in multiple recent samples.

    To put that in perspective, the IEA has 130,000 active members. So they all must vote in the GOP primary and must vote exactly the same just to get Dillard in the hunt. That’s not even taking into account that perhaps 15-20% of IEA members are Republican voters already.

    But maybe the polls are wrong…even if Rauner’s lead is half what the polls have shown, Dillard must have a perfect GOTV operation and get an unprecedented crossover and he still comes up short.

    But judging by the last minute media buy I’m seeing today, Dillard won’t have a dime left by 7 pm tomorrow.


  12. - lake county democrat - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:29 pm:

    I wouldn’t presume ALL the crossover Dem voters in the GOP primary are going to Dillard. There’s nothing to vote for in most Dem races and some suburban Dems may be voting for Rauner. I don’t put a miracle past the unions (I gave it 15% - much higher than most - in Rich’s poll last week) but I’m not seeing it.


  13. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:30 pm:

    In Cook County, there were only 794 fewer early votes cast then during the 2010 primary. About 46% of the ballots were Republican this year, up from about 31% four years ago.


  14. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:37 pm:

    I’d be surprised if much of the Dem and union crossover vote will happen tomorrow. It’s more likely that someone who was crossing over for Dillard would’ve done it at a more convenient early voting opportunity.

    I think the biggest crossover factor tomorrow will be ambulatory seniors who are public retirees. They have plenty of time on their hands and tend to like the election day voting experience.


  15. - IL Champ - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:45 pm:

    Further review nailed it. Unless we are seeing a trend of increased significantly increased early voting, Democrats ae pulling Republican ballots. This gives Dillard some, although marginal, room to work. I think the Edgar fly around moves the needle a little his way. The press has been incredible and people love Edgar.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    === I think the Edgar fly around moves the needle a little his way. The press has been incredible and people love Edgar.===

    People indeed love Edgar. People have shown they could care less who Edgar himself loves. Just sayin’.


  17. - Dave Fako - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 3:51 pm:

    UPR - Actually Illinois has an open primary where anybody can vote in any primary, no party registration etc. is required (although you can only pull one partisan ballot in the election). The “D”, “R” and “I” and a few other designations are actually just based on past primary voting behavior, not registration and has been explained an “Independent” on the Illinois voter file really = a registered voters who has / regular votes in general elections but has not voted in a partisan primary. The I voters real behavior varies depedning on where you are - some are clearly D and R while some are true Independents.

    The reality is some primary voters are pathological D / R primary voters even if they skip a few here and there, a smaller number go back and forth between both parties and a few I’s jump into the partisan contents (and once they do they get a partisan designation, and lose their I label, like it or not). Virtually all primary election campaigns that are contingent upon getting “I” voters or the opposite party primary voters to vote in their primary to win are doomed to failure.


  18. - VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 4:43 pm:

    No sign of cavalry - some claim to be seeing something like a dust cloud ahead however. Looks too small to make a difference any which way.

    The GOP fort looks like it will be forced to open its gates tomorrow night.


  19. - Excessively Rabid - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 4:51 pm:

    My wife is planning on voting in the GOP primary - gotta go, there’s a pig flying around the back yard.


  20. - Downstate - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 5:24 pm:

    70 year old family member, lifelong Democrat announced they are voting in the Republican primary for the first time in their life.

    They will be canceling out a union vote.


  21. - railrat - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 5:36 pm:

    when 130,000 crossover’s occur because the ” labor leaders” spent their memberships “voluntary” PAC funds” for fear of a Rauner… Satan will be at Gander Mountain for artic gear…and even better if by chance it did occur Satan would be frozen solid if those “labor leaders” didn’t throw Dillard under the bus for Quinn in the general..


  22. - Oh Come On! - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:12 pm:

    @Dave Fuko:

    As a result of a SCOTUS decision that came to be the case in the Seventies. Now, one can switch party affiliations in each primary (not permitted years ago without a twenty-three month waiting period), but what I was referring to is the continued process that requires every primary voter to publicly declare their party preference when requesting a ballot and having that request noted of record. There are other states where such a decision is made by the voter in the privacy of the polling booth.

    Thousands of Illnoisans choose to skip primaries because they do not want to publicly declare their party and have their choice recorded. In the bad old days, Chicagoans equated declaring Republican with the future refusal or lessening of city services, etc.

    The IEA sent out notices telling members that asking for a Republican ballot tomorrow will not obligate them to support the Republican Party in the future.


  23. - Oh Come On! - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:14 pm:

    what was being referred to is the continued process that requires every primary voter to publicly declare their party preference


  24. - RNUG - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:24 pm:

    This “I” will be pulling an “R” ballot tomorrow and won’t be voting for Baron von Carhart. Over dinner tonight I was talking with my mother-in-law (lifelong “D”) who plans to pull an “R” tomorrow; never thought I would see the day but it has arrived.

    I still think it is a long shot for Dillard but the anecdotal evidence is adding up.


  25. - DuPage Rep - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:43 pm:

    ==I still think it is a long shot for Dillard but the anecdotal evidence is adding up.==
    Fly on you crazy diamond.


  26. - DuPage Rep - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:45 pm:

    Sorry, shine on


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* Group threatens suit over Senate tax hike
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Andersson warns of GOP revolt
* HDems examining Senate's plan, not their own
* IMA urges veto of Senate's workers' comp reform bill
* You gotta be kidding me
* Helping the medicine go down
* Yeah, this will help
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Pritzker attacks Rauner property tax freeze as "political stunt," outlines his own idea
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* All options remain on table as budget talks con.....
* House Dems dissect budget, tax hike; budget dir.....
* House Dems dissect budget, tax hike; budget dir.....


* Illinois House continues debate over income tax increase
* House Democrats meet, discuss potential tax increase
* House Democrats meet, discuss potential tax increase
* Chicago says teen birth rates in city continue to fall
* Wreath-laying to honor servicemen at Chicago park
* 29-year-old Chicago-area man slain in Janesville, Wisconsin
* Indiana court takes up Lake Michigan property rights case
* Illinois State University cybersecurity program gets $3M
* AARP seeks senior community builders for awards
* U of Illinois trustees' retreat to address free speech

* Odds against Springfield casino after amendment blocked
* All options remain on table as budget talks continue
* Illinois farmers may soon be growing industrial hemp
* U of Illinois trustees' retreat to address free speech
* Big retirement payouts tiny part of big pension mess
* Big pensions tiny part of big pension mess
* Senate approves workers' comp changes
* Push for downtown Springfield casino taking shape
* Push for Springfield casino taking shape
* Push for smaller Springfield casino taking shape

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* The place where media pain hurts most: Springfield
* For the GOP, it's all about the Benjamins
* Online lender Avant's reboot still hasn't yielded profit
* Mike Keiser knows where golf is alive and well. (It's not Illinois)


* 2 wounded in Archer Heights shooting
* Police warn of armed robberies in Lincoln Park, Old Town
* Man wounded in South Side shooting
* 2-year-old girl struck by car, critically injured in Englewood
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for May 29, 2017
* Dear Abby: Co-worker accuses me of a perfume crime
* 21-year-old man shot in Washington Park alley
* Trump eyes White House overhaul, outside lawyers and PR team
* House Dems dissect budget, tax hike; budget director vows Rauner veto
* 52-year-old man shot during unincorporated McHenry home invasion


* All aboard: Joliet Rocket steamin' into town
* Cheap out: Five fun things to do for free
* Quigley says Russia probe is 'in its infancy'
* Chicago in epicenter of charter school teacher contract disputes
* Boy, 15, fatally shot, 6 others wounded in Sunday shootings
* Toddler injured in South Side crash
* North Korea fires apparent Scud-type missile into waters off Japan
* Muslims in Portland thank community, raise money for families of 'heroes' who defended young women
* Jon Lester frustrated after his start in 9-4 loss to Dodgers: 'Just wasted a whole day'
* Navy parachutist dies during demonstration over Hudson River


» Illinois Budget Fight Could Affect 2018 Elections
» New Lawsuit Accuses Imprisoned Former Speaker Of Sex Assault
» 17-Month Old Semaj Crosby’s Death Linked To Systemic, Family Failures
» 17-Month-Old Semaj Crosby’s Death Linked To Systemic, Family Failures
» Senate Passes Workers' Compensation Bills — Most Republicans Reject It
» State Week: Tax Hike Getting Cold Shoulder
» Popular Music Store Finds New Home On Navy Pier
» For West Side Students, Playing Outside Is Protesting Against Gun Violence
» Offline And On Paper: Chicago Teens Make Zines In An Ephemeral World
» Judge Refuses To Dismiss Murder Case Against Chicago Cop Who Shot Laquan McDonald


* Odds against Springfield casino after amendment blocked
* All options remain on table as budget talks continue
* Illinois farmers may soon be growing industrial hemp
* Our View: Remember the reason for Memorial Day
* Responsible Budget Coalition: Illinois needs revenue to thrive
* George Will: How to restore American self-reliance
* U of Illinois trustees' retreat to address free speech
* Bernard Schoenburg: Lawmakers taking heat, but is a charity announcement so bad?
* Big retirement payouts tiny part of big pension mess
* Statehouse Insider: Seems like we've been this way before


* Reader photo: Splish splash
* Beardstown Class of 2017 small, competitive
* Those Who Served: Richard Underwood
* Police Beat
* Kind stranger helps Granite City soldier come home for Memorial Day
* Man missing from Winchester may be suffering from psychotic episodes, police say
* She's 26 and part of a milestone in marathon baseball history
* Clinton man charged after train collides with truck on tracks
* Rettig, Smith aid title bid at nationals
* Late slipups cost Illini the lead at NCAA Championships


* Navy parachutist dies during demonstration over Hudson River
* LEADING OFF: Trout gets checked, Price makes season debut
* Dillon earns 1st win at Coca-Cola 600
* Kushner's Russia ties questioned as Trump cites media 'lies'
* The Latest: Trump says he favors more money for health care

* Protesters continue die-in at US Rep. Rand...
* Jim Walz Will Challenge Randy Hultgren for...
* PHOTOS: Protesters stage die-in at Randy H...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren's office the scene ...
* Second Democrat announces bid to unseat Hu...
* Sweet: Hultgren, Roskam, Kinzinger avoid b...
* Local Republicans, Democrats praise appoin...
* Dems shift financial debate to spotlight T...
* Batavia resident announces candidacy for 1...
* Teacher raised in Yorkville running agains...

* Trump says he favors more money for health......
* Durbin: GOP Should Work With Dems to Save ......

* 'Inexcusable:' Durbin, Duckworth slam HUD ......

* Memorial Day; ‘yea’ or ‘nae’ for those who do their military service?
* A remarkably clear explanation of Illinois public pension issues.
* Distractions.
* Democracy in Chicago? It’s complicated.
* The Walgreen's on 95th & King Drive is closing
* Volunteers Needed For Windy City RibFest Beer Tents
* Broadway & Wilson Payless Shoesource To Close
* Fresh Harvest Market Opening Soon?
* Pivot Arts Festival: 10 Days of Innovative Performances In Uptown & Edgewater
* Sheridan Park's Dick Uyvari Honored With a Memorial Bowling Tournament On Saturday, June 3rd


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* No more Moto Z2 Play question marks after this, and all the E4 specs are also leaked
* OPPO R11 leak has Plus, specs and cardboard cut-out models
* ARM debuts Cortex-A55, Cortex-A75 and Mali-G72 GPU
* Dual-camera on the front, dual-camera on the back, it’s the Gionee S10
* 24 hours with the HTC U11
* Thanks, Ookla: Speedtest now on Windows 10 Mobile
* LG V30 leaks show one potential vision with a Priv-ish Second Screen

* Hansen fans career-high 15 for Kannapolis
* Sox bats back Gonzalez's perfecto bid
* Gonzalez gives 'mates 'perfect' thoughts
* Gonzalez gives mates 'perfect' thoughts
* Gonzalez retires first 18 Tigers in Sox win
* White Sox call on Holmberg vs. Boston, Price
* Abreu eager to serve as mentor to Robert


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller