Is Emanuel bouncing back?
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Partial results of two Anzalone-Liszt-Grove Research polls taken for state Rep. Christian Mitchell’s primary campaign show Mayor Rahm Emanuel apparently bouncing back in March from some big trouble last December with African-American Democratic voters…
Emanuel favorability African Americans 18-64
Emanuel favorability Africa Americans non-college
* Also…
Emanuel has a base of senior African American voters — those over the age of 65 — in this district poll; his standing did not change much in the past months with his favorables holding at 62 per cent.
This is just one House district on the South Side, so it would be better to see broader results. Still, the mayor’s movement is quite interesting.
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Today’s numbers
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The AP reports on a new study of healthy by county…
The overall health ranking for Cook County, the state’s most populous, was 75 of the 102 Illinois counties.
Collar counties Kendall and DuPage ranked second and third, respectively, and Kane was ninth.
The study looks at factors such as high school graduation rates, access to health providers and healthy foods as well as rates of smoking, obesity and teen births. […]
Not surprisingly, the healthiest Illinois county, Woodford in Central Illinois, had some of the state’s best scores for individual health and social and economic factors. Its childhood poverty rate was 8 percent.
Alexander County in Illinois’ far southern tip was at the bottom. Forty-nine percent of children there were living in poverty and the unemployment rate was 11.4 percent.
The study is here.
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Rauner mascot to hound Quinn
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Rauner campaign…
Introducing Quinnocchio
Pat Quinn’s alter-ego, Quinnocchio, is making his first appearance today alongside the governor at his noon campaign stop at Linné Elementary School to remind him of his broken promises.
Discuss.
…Adding… Here’s the governor’s press release for today’s school visit…
Governor Pat Quinn today visited Carl von Linné Elementary School in Chicago and discussed his fiscal year 2015 budget proposal and five-year blueprint to raise state investment in the classroom to its highest point in Illinois history. As a result of tackling the cost drivers behind the financial crisis he inherited, the Governor was able to present a budget that invests an additional $6 billion in education over the next five years.
“The future of Illinois’ economy depends on the quality of our education,” Governor Quinn said. “All students—no matter where they live—deserve to go to a first-rate school. That is why my budget proposal invests like never before in education and support for early childhood development.”
The Governor’s investment in education in the FY15 budget includes:
· Investing $100 million in Birth to Five in FY15, with a total five-year investment of $1.5 billion, a game-changing investment to expand access to prenatal care; early care and learning opportunities for every child; and strong parent support.
· Expanding dual enrollment and early college programs.
· Investing an additional $50 million in the Monetary Assistance Program (MAP) to expand opportunity for 21,000 students to attend college. The proposal calls for doubling MAP scholarships over the next five years.
· Modernizing classrooms across the state to ensure every student attends a first-rate school.
Since taking office, Governor Quinn has fought to preserve education from radical budget cuts, and built and repaired 978 schools. In his Fiscal Year 2015 Budget Address, Governor Quinn laid out an honest and responsible budget for the next fiscal year along with a five-year blueprint that will secure the state’s finances for the long-term, provide significant tax relief to homeowners and working families and invest like never before in education and early childhood.
For more than 100 years Carl von Linné School has been providing a world-class education to children in the Avondale neighborhood of Chicago. The mission of Carl Von Linné Elementary School is to prepare students for college and career by providing a rigorous research-based instructional program, aligned to the Common Core State Standards, with a focus on educating the “whole child.”
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* The House Revenue Committee has voted down a proposed constitutional amendment for a graduated income tax while approving Speaker Madigan’s “millionaire’s tax” - a three percent surcharge on income over $1 million.
Today, by the way, was the “Fair Tax” Statehouse lobby day. The group has focused more of its progressive tax efforts on the Senate, but it got a taste of harsh reality in House Revenue today. A rally is scheduled for noon.
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Good government is good (partisan) politics
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This sounds like a pretty interesting idea…
The state’s shuttered juvenile prison in Murphysboro could be reopened as a special adult prison for drunk driving offenders under Gov. Pat Quinn’s budget proposal.
The plan, which relies on the General Assembly making the 67 percent income tax increase permanent, could bring jobs to a Southern Illinois facility that Quinn closed less than two years ago.
According to the governor’s budget office, an estimated 2,500 inmates housed throughout the state’s sprawling prison system are serving time for multiple drunk driving offenses.
Moving some of them to the former minimum-security institution for juveniles could ease overcrowding in other facilities and provide them with specialized services designed to help them after release.
“Murphysboro could be re-purposed fairly easily,” said Abdon Pallasch, assistant director of the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget. “This center will help us reduce recidivism and save taxpayer money over time.”
Looks like decent policy to me.
Re-opening the facility also has a political benefit, however. State Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) is running for Congress. The House Democrats pushed Bill Kilquist through the Democratic primary and have high hopes for his November chances. Creating a few jobs in an area that is so heavily dependent upon state employment probably won’t hurt at all.
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Quick legislative hits
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Daily Herald writes about how the state’s ultra-exclusive golf country clubs are working the system for huge property tax breaks…
(I)f Medinah officials have their way, those schools and other local government entities will have to give back nearly $1 million to golf course operators, who say Medinah’s tax assessment was far too high for the past three years.
It would also shift that tax burden onto the private golf course’s mostly residential neighbors in the future.
In 2013, the country club’s property tax bill amounted to $391,554, according to assessment records from Bloomingdale Township. If the appeal is successful, the tax bill could shrink to $84,257, a 78.5 percent decrease. […]
Medinah officials are basing their appeal on the state’s disputed definition of “open space.” State law allows golf courses to be classified as open space for assessment purposes. Township assessors, county boards of review and the state’s Property Tax Appeal Board have always maintained that the open space designation only applies to golf course land that is either undeveloped or used for actual golfing.
Lawyers for the Onwentsia Golf Club in Lake Forest challenged that definition in 2006 and argued that land with buildings, parking lots and additional improvements helped conserve all the other open space and should be considered open space by proxy.
Legislation is now moving to address this. I doubt Medinah is gonna get its full break.
* Sun-Times…
New regulations governing petcoke, as currently written, don’t appear to have the votes to get out of the Illinois House Environment Committee, according to vote counters on both sides of the issue.
Although Friday is the deadline for bills to get out of committee, in Springfield there are always ways to get around the rules. But there isn’t a way to get around a shortage of committee votes.
The legislation is being pushed by Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan and has 40 listed co-sponsors. It would require minimum setbacks for coal and petcoke facilities; set limits on dust; regulate storage, loading and unloading; require new permits; and require monitoring and testing. The bill is separate from the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency’s plan to draw up new rules on petcoke storage. The IEPA has been talking to members of the industry, both refiners and bulk operators, and to the environmental community. Environmentalists say new rules are needed, while industry calls the whole effort a solution in search of a problem.
Even if this bill as written doesn’t get out of committee, a bill with new language that resolves legislators’ concerns could be placed on a shell bill, circumventing the Friday deadline.
I spoke to a gathering of the Illinois Petroleum Council this week. They claim there has been just one reported problem with petcoke storage in Illinois. Whether that’s true or not, it’s a talking point that they’ve been relentlessly hammering home with legislators. One problem shouldn’t result in a major regulatory bill. Again, you may disagree with that, but it’s the argument they’re using and it appears to be successful so far.
* AP…
A proposal that would allow truck stops to have twice as many video gaming machines as other establishments is moving through the Illinois Legislature.
A Senate committee on Tuesday approved the measure with a 9-2 vote. It would allow truck stops to have ten video gaming terminals. Currently, establishments with video gaming can operate five machines.
State Sen. Dave Syverson is sponsoring the proposal. He says it will create more revenue from truckers who are often from out of state. The Republican from Rockford says it wouldn’t affect other gaming businesses because truckers already don’t leave truck stops to gamble.
Before legalization and regulation, some truck stops had dozens of poker machines. They were like mini casinos.
* Here’s an interesting piece of legislation…
A plan to let Rosemont and three other Illinois cities apply their local cigarette taxes to cigars and other forms of tobacco won initial approval in the state Senate Wednesday.
The legislation from state Sen. Dan Kotowski, a Park Ridge Democrat, would apply to Rosemont, Chicago, Evanston and Cicero, the four towns in Illinois that have local taxes.
The Rosemont tax, which is 5 cents per pack on top of state and federal cigarette taxes, will not be increased or decreased under Kotowski’s proposal. But it would be applied to other forms of tobacco based on weight.
Senate GOP Leader Christine Radogno asked before voting against it: “If it’s good for these four communities, wouldn’t it be good for the rest of the state?”
* Other stuff…
* Ride-sharing crackdown advances in House: Rep. Tom Morrison, R-Palatine, said those steps contained in Zalewski’s legislation limited new upstart competitors to the taxicab industry too severely. “I voted against this bill because it unfairly locks out competing companies and limits choices for consumers,” Morrison said. Candice Taylor, a Lyft representative who testified before the committee, said the bill’s “burdensome” requirements would mean “the end of companies like Lyft and Uber in Illinois.”
* Bill at Statehouse would allow early release for older inmates
* Illinois gun ranges busy, trying to meet demand
* Illinois set to put major limits on charter schools.
* Unes Opposes bill to Assess ISBE Takeover of IHSA
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Question of the day
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Quinn’s announcement Wednesday that he intends to push for a permanent extension of a temporary income tax he enacted in 2011 represents a huge political Achilles’ heel for him in his campaign against Republican Bruce Rauner.
But will it be fatal?
It’s too early to judge, though Dawn Clark Netsch’s 1994 campaign for governor largely was derailed by early summer that year because of her advocacy for an income-tax increase as part of a school-funding, tax-swap plan.
Quinn, by contrast, ran and narrowly won the Executive Mansion in 2010 when he embraced a 1-percentage point increase in what then was Illinois’ 3-percent individual income tax.
* SJ-R…
In his speech, Quinn said such a reduction in revenue would mean 13,000 teachers would be laid off, 30,000 fewer students receiving assistance for college expenses, 21,000 fewer seniors receiving home care services and 41,000 fewer children in child care.
By extending the tax, Quinn said “we can stabilize the budget for the long term in a way that provides targeted tax relief where it’s needed most, to homeowners and working families raising kids.”
* Illinois Issues…
Quinn offered property tax relief and an incremental doubling of the Earned Income Tax Credit as potential sweetener that might help the income tax proposal go down with voters. […]
Not surprisingly, a recent poll from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois Carbondale found that 60 percent of voters oppose making the tax rates permanent. However, the majority of respondents liked major state services and were opposed to cutting them. Voters were also opposed to taxing retirement income or increasing sales taxes. The only new revenue source that more than half of those polled supported was expanding gambling. […]
Quinn’s proposal has the backing of the legislative leaders in his party. “I would commend the governor for his political courage and honesty,” House Speaker Michael Madigan told Illinois Public Television’s Jak Tichenor, host of Illinois Lawmakers. Madigan said that he “demanded” property tax relief be included in a proposal to make the tax rates permanent. “I plan to support the governor’s position on the extension of the income tax increase,” said Madigan. “If we wish to continue to provide the level of services which we’ve become accustomed to for education and other purposes, then the income tax increase should be extended.”
* Bruce Rauner…
“Pat Quinn first promised the working people of Illinois he wouldn’t raise taxes by 67%. He broke that promise, taking away nearly a week’s worth of pay for Illinois families. Then he promised his tax hike would be temporary. Today he broke that promise too and is doubling down on his failed policies. After five years of Pat Quinn’s failed leadership, we have record tax hikes, outrageously high unemployment, massive cuts in education, and there’s still a giant budget mess in Springfield. It’s now or never to save Illinois. We can balance the budget without more tax increases, if we create a growth economy, and restructure and reform our broken government. That’s what I’ll do as governor.”
* Back to the SJ-R…
In his speech, Quinn ruled out two other options that have been floated as ways for the state to collect more revenue. He said the state sales tax should not be extended to services.
“I won’t institute any new, unfair taxes on everyday services that working people rely on,” Quinn said. “It hurts working families the most to tax basic services like going to the Laundromat, like taking your child to day care, like visiting the barbershop, like taking your dog to the vet.”
Rauner has said he’s open to both the service and retirement income taxes.
* The Question: On balance, were the governor’s proposals yesterday a help or a hindrance to his reelection prospects? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey software
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Here we go again
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Quinn sought to portray his fiscal blueprint as part of an effort to end a cycle of budget game-playing by his predecessors that left state finances in shambles. He said part of his strategy was the controversial pension overhaul law last year that he argued would dramatically cut retirement costs and let more tax revenue flow to schools, health care and other services.
Rauner contends that Quinn’s pension alterations are too timid and will save the state far less than the governor contends. That argument may have gotten a boost Wednesday when the state’s bipartisan fiscal forecasting agency revised downward by several billion dollars its long-term savings projection for the pension overhaul.
* That snippet may have been based on this Bruce Rauner campaign press release…
On the same day of Pat Quinn’s budget address in which he broke his promise to keep the 67% personal income tax temporary, the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability released an analysis of the so-called pension reform law that shows it will save $22.6 billion less than was promised when the legislation was passed.
* This isn’t much different than the same stupid canard I dealt with in the subscriber section back in January. Here’s what I wrote back then. Substitute $15 billion with $22.7 billion and adjust everything else and you’ll get the same sort of results…
ONE OF THE DUMBEST ARGUMENTS EVER There’s been much screaming and hollering about how new calculations show that the pension reform law is projected to save $15 billion less than originally advertised last fall when the bill passed.
The complaints are based mainly on a recent Chicago Tribune article entitled “Illinois pension law saves $15 billion less than first thought.” The ultra-conservative Illinois Policy Institute, Bruce Rauner and other pension bill opponents have used the story as ammunition to claim that the law is based on a tissue of lies.
But the premise of that article was completely off base because it looked at the wrong number. The only truly valuable number is what taxpayers will end up shoveling into the pension system. Like everything else, it’s all about the final bottom line.
OK, we’re gonna get into a little math here, but it’s really easy so stay with me a minute.
The basic thing to remember here is that calculations originally showed last fall that pension reforms meant taxpayers would owe the pension systems $220 billion over 30 years. A recalculation with updated numbers, however, showed the total taxpayer obligation is now at $205 billion. That’s really good news, but it’s being irresponsibly spun as bad news.
The original estimates were based on Fiscal Year 2012 data. Without the new pension law, the data showed that taxpayers were on the hook for $380 billion in pension payments over 30 years. The reform law reduced that obligation estimate to $220 billion, which was a 42.1 percent reduction in what the government would have to give the pension funds.
When the numbers were updated to include Fiscal Year 2013 data (which included some pretty high investment returns), the new research found that taxpayers were now on the hook for $350 billion over the next 30 years without the reforms. The reform law would result in a 41.4 percent reduction to just $205 billion.
So, what about that $15 billion difference touted by the opponents? Where does it come from?
It’s not that hard to figure out and here’s an easy little example if you’re still scratching your head.
Let’s say you’re looking for a new watch. You find one at Macy’s that’s originally priced at $109 and is on sale at 40 percent off. You’d save $43.60 for a final price of $65.40. That’s still more expensive than Rauner’s watch, but not a bad deal at all.
But then you go next door to Bergner’s and you see the exact same watch listed at $100 and it’s also on sale for 40 percent off. You’d save $40 with the 40 percent sale, but your final bottom line price would be $60, compared to $65.40 at Macy’s,
It doesn’t take Einstein to figure out the better bottom line deal here. Yeah, your 40 percent “savings” are higher with the more expensive Macy’s watch, but the bottom line price you pay is significantly lower at Bergner’s.
The Policy Institute and Rauner would have you believe that Bergner’s is somehow ripping you off because the sale’s 40 percent reduction amount is lower than Macy’s. But that’s just plainly ridiculous. Who thinks like that?
Discuss.
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Fun with numbers
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Illinois Watchdog…
Illinois lawmakers have proposed a budget that tops $34 billion, but doesn’t rely on the 2011 tax money. If Quinn gets his wish and a permanent tax hike, state spending could increase to almost $36 billion for the next year.
That would mean Illinois is spending $12 billion a year more than in 2000.
Using a handy-dandy online inflation calculator from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, $24 billion in 2000 equals $32.7 billion today. So, using the Watchdog’s budget numbers, the state is spending, in real dollars, just $1.3 billion more than it was back then, without half the tax hike revenue, or $3.3 billion with it. But the state is also making full pension payments these days. It was spending a whole lot less on pensions back in 2000.
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About that property tax proposal
Thursday, Mar 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mark Brown discusses Gov. Pat Quinn’s proposed $500 property tax refund…
The governor proposed the property tax refund Wednesday as the sweetener to help Illinoisans swallow his decision to make permanent the “temporary” income tax hike he signed into law in 2011.
If the Legislature goes along, Quinn plans to start sending out the $500 checks this summer so that voters might feel a little more kindly toward him when they step into the voting booth this November. […]
The average credit currently is $247, says the Quinn administration, which equates to a net gain to a taxpayer of $253 after trading off the credit for the refund. Your net gain will be more or less than that, depending on how much you pay in property taxes.
Quinn didn’t really make that clear, just as he failed to mention altogether that for anyone who currently pays more than $10,000 a year in property taxes, his plan will result in a net tax increase.
The governor’s office says that will effect fewer than 10 percent of Illinois homeowners, which sounds about right, but I’m pretty sure nearly all of them live in the high-tax Chicago metro area.
* The net effect of this is that the vast majority will get a small property tax break (which isn’t really a property tax break, it’s an income tax refund loosely based on property taxes), while the upper middle class and the wealthy will see a smaller break.
My own property taxes are above $10K in Springfield. The proposed plan means I’ll lose about $125. Mark Brown also admitted that the proposal would cost him a few dollars, but wrote that he doesn’t “begrudge the state the extra hundred bucks or so a year.”
* Bruce Rauner lowered his 2012 Illinois taxes by $3,007 with the state’s property tax credit. So, if this new $500 credit passes, Rauner will have to pay about $2,500 more next time around.
By the way, Rauner paid about $2.6 million in state taxes for 2012, but he made $3.5 million in estimated payments, so he got a state tax refund check worth about $880,000.
* Also, Speaker Madigan claimed yesterday that the tax refund was his own idea…
Madigan said during a public television interview, adding, “My demand as part of this program is relief for homeowners on their real estate taxes.”
* The Republicans were not amused…
[Sen. Matt Murphy] said Quinn’s proposal to roughly double the current amount of overall property tax relief is equivalent to a $600 million “kickback” that would raise the overall amount of state relief for homeowners to more than $1.2 billion a year.
I think it’s actually $700 million in net new spending for a total of $1.3 billion, but whatever the case, it’s a lot of new money. More cuts in other areas will have to be made to pay for this, and that’s always one of the biggest problems with ideas like these.
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
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* House Speaker Michael Madigan told Jak Tichenor today that he admires Gov. Quinn for his courage in proposing to make the income tax hike permanent.
Madigan also said he supports the governor’s plan and said he hopes to try and pass it by the end of the spring session on May 31st. Watch…
A spring session income tax vote would be a rarity in Springfield. It almost never happens.
* Senate President John Cullerton said after he talked to Tichenor today that he “fully” supports the governor’s plan to keep the tax hike permanent. He said during the Illinois Lawmakers program after the governor’s speech that he wants the House to vote on the tax hike first, just to make sure it passes. Watch…
* House Republican Leader Jim Durkin and Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno also spoke with Tichenor. This video was processing when I wrote this, so give it a few and it should work…
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
In any discussion about treatment of mental illness, the interests of the patients and their families should come first. But Senate Bill 2187 – sometimes called “RxP” – would create a lower-tier health system for people with mental illness.
SB 2187 would allow psychologists who have no medical training to prescribe powerful medications to patients. Current Illinois law allows only people who have medical training – doctors, nurse practitioners and physician assistants – to prescribe drugs.
Why does medical training matter? Physical illnesses and mental disorders are often intertwined. Additionally, psychiatric medication, such as drugs for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, can interact negatively with medication for chronic illnesses like diabetes and high blood pressure. Finally, psychiatric drugs are powerful and can create risky side effects. To understand these intricacies, psychiatrists go through four years of medical school plus at least four years of residency. They learn to treat the whole patient – not just the brain.
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* “Taxis want these guys out of business,” one of the sponsors of the ride-sharing regulatory bill told me yesterday.
The play here is obvious. Taxi companies in Chicago, like pretty much everywhere else in the world, want to put Uber and other companies like it out of business. Period. That’s all that this is about. The companies have tough lobbyists and a pile of cash and they want the government to protect them from a new-age competitor.
* It’s not too hard to read between the lines here…
Rep. Michael Zalewski, D-Riverside, chief sponsor of the legislation in Springfield, said putting in safety mandates on the new companies that can be summoned with a few keystrokes on a smartphone is an “urgent matter.”
“It’s our opinion, and the opinion of those who focus on consumer protection, that in fact regulatory vacuums are not healthy for Illinois citizens,” Zalewski said. “We don’t condone unlicensed, unregulated activity, and in fact it’s our duty to protect the public safety of our constituents.”
If only they’d tackled the budget with the same vigor.
Some of the safety mandates do make sense. For instance, making sure that the vehicles are subjected to safety inspections is a good idea.
* But, I mean, what the heck…
No commercial ridesharing arrangement shall pick up or discharge a passenger at any airport that serves as a base for commercial flights open to the general public, to any convention center
This is all about stifling competition. Pure and simple.
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Two decrim bills advance
Wednesday, Mar 26, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A couple of good ideas were advanced out of committee yesterday. But, considering the fact that the medical marijuana law hasn’t even been fully implemented, I don’t expect much movement the rest of the year…
“The war on drugs has not worked,” said Rep. Christian Mitchell, D-Chicago, one of the bill’s sponsors. “Our jails are overcrowded. We need to get smarter on crime, not tougher. Drug addiction is a public health problem, not a public safety problem.”
Under Mitchell’s House Bill 4299, which passed 6-0 in committee, instead of getting a misdemeanor for possessing up to 30 grams — about an ounce — of marijuana, violators would get a fine of no more than $100 with a “petty offense” on their record. […]
Rep. Kelly Cassidy, D-Chicago, passed another pot-ticketing bill 5-2 in committee that would decriminalize marijuana.
Under her legislation, House Bill 5708, possession of less than 30 grams of marijuana would be a “regulatory offense” that would still include a fine of $100 but not exist on someone’s record.
* Anita Bedell is a nice person and she means well, but she always goes so over the top on stuff that she loses credibility…
But Anita Bedell, with Church Action on Alcohol and Addiction Problems, opposed Cassidy’s and Mitchell’s bills. She said she’s worried about the message that lowering marijuana penalties sends to young people. […]
Bedell said the Legislature is “rushing” down the road of legalizing marijuana completely, an outcome that she said would be “disastrous” to the state.
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Rauner gets “fact checked” over job loss numbers
Wednesday, Mar 26, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* FactCheck.org looks at a claim made in a recent Bruce Rauner TV ad…
Republican Bruce Rauner claims in TV ads that Illinois has lost 90,000 jobs in five years under Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn. But Illinois has lost 3,400 jobs in five years — not 90,000 — by the standard definition of “jobs” used by practically all economists and journalists. […]
But the campaign is using BLS data that are not commonly used to measure jobs gained or lost. Rauner bases his figure on surveys of people in households, rather than on a much larger survey of millions of actual payroll records.
BLS has two sets of monthly employment data: the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, which is based on the Current Population Survey (commonly known as the household survey), and the Current Employment Statistics program, which is based on payroll surveys of establishments and government agencies (known as the payroll survey). Mike Schrimpf, a spokesman for the Rauner campaign, said the claim is based on the household survey. Quinn took office on Jan. 29, 2009. The household survey data show there were 6,067,701 jobs in January 2009 and 5,982,030 as of January 2014 — a decline of nearly 86,000 jobs.
But the payroll survey — not the household survey — is used by practically all economists, journalists and politicians when measuring jobs. It’s what journalists use when writing stories about job gains or losses and what BLS posts prominently on its website as the prime indicator of job growth or loss. By that measure, Illinois has lost only 3,400 jobs under Quinn, with total nonfarm employment declining from 5,803,600 in January 2009 to 5,800,200 in January 2014.
What’s the difference between household and payroll surveys?
Both are monthly surveys. But the payroll data — technically called “total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted” — is projected from payroll records at 144,000 establishments and government agencies at 554,000 work sites nationwide. By contrast, the household survey uses a much smaller sample — about 60,000 households. The household survey is used to calculate the unemployment rate, but the payroll data is “considered to be the more accurate employment indicator,” as the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco explains in a Q&A about why the Fed uses payroll data to analyze employment trends. […]
Rauner’s larger point about the performance of the state’s economy is accurate. Illinois has lost jobs under Quinn, even though the U.S. has seen a net gain of 3.7 million jobs since January 2009. The state’s unemployment rate is 8.7 percent, up from 8 percent in January 2009, while the U.S. rate has declined from 7.8 percent to 6.7 percent. But the state’s job losses may not be as large as the Rauner campaign claims.
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* Bruce Rauner released an Internet video yesterday blasting Gov. Pat Quinn. Rate it…
* Sun-Times…
The minute-long piece, titled “Truth,” juxtaposes statements Quinn made at previous press conferences and public appearances with data that seemingly contradicts the governor’s own words.
“When you hear Pat Quinn’s promise, remember the ones he broke,” the narrator says.
The commercial opens with Quinn vowing to lower taxes, particularly for families with household income of $60,000 or less, and notes how in 2011 he signed off on a 67-percent increase in the state income tax. It goes on to feature Quinn talking in 2011 about the need for a “restraint of spending” but highlights the state’s $6 billion backlog of unpaid bills.
* The Quinn campaign kinda responded today…
Billionaire Bruce Rauner’s Brutal Budget Would Slash Education by More Than $2 Billion
Rauner’s Draconian Cuts Would Lay Off One in Every Six Teachers Across the State, Drastically Hike Property Taxes
CHICAGO - Billionaire Bruce Rauner’s FY2015 brutal budget would decimate education, raise property taxes and stall economic growth. Under Rauner’s plan to “run Illinois like a business” with a 3% tax rate, he would decimate education funding by an estimated $2 billion this year – hitting K-12 schools especially hard. These catastrophic cuts would force local school districts to lay off an estimated one in every six teachers (22,100), crowd our classrooms and rob Illinois’ children of valuable educational opportunities. Property taxes across the state would also skyrocket just to keep schools open.
“Rauner’s sales pitch to run Illinois like a business would run our state straight into the ground,” Deputy Press Secretary Izabela Miltko said. “It’s clear his plan would take a sledgehammer to education, lay off tens of thousands of teachers and leave Illinois’ students at a huge disadvantage. His inability to provide real solutions for our state makes it clear he can’t be trusted to run Illinois.”
According to recent legislative testimony by Illinois State Board of Education Superintendent Chris Koch, if the current tax plan was rolled back to the original 3.75%, the potential cuts would mean $967 million less for education, leading to 13,400 teacher layoffs, increased class sizes and cuts to key extra-curricular programs. (”Agency directors describe severity of proposed state budget cuts,” Associated Press, 3/21/14).
If you think these cuts are dangerously deep, Rauner is advocating for a 3% tax rate that would slash education even further, resulting in the lay-off of 22,100 teachers.
With much of Illinois already divided into “have” and “have not” school districts as a result of public education being primarily financed by property taxes, Rauner’s cuts would force districts to raise property taxes just to survive. (Kadner: State board eyes special ed changes,” Southtown Star, 1/20/14)
While Bruce Rauner will do whatever it takes to help himself and his campaign, by contrast Governor Quinn tackles the tough issues and does the right thing to get the job done, even when it’s not politically expedient.
The 2012 election results show that proposed budget cuts were far scarier to voters than the very real income tax hike. But 2014 won’t be as favorable for Quinn as 2012 was to the down-ballot Dems, who also had the benefit of a favorable map.
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“Conversion therapy” bill advances
Wednesday, Mar 26, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
Equality Illinois is calling on the Illinois House of Representatives to protect minors by passing the Conversion Therapy Prohibition Act this spring after the House Human Services Committee approved it today by a 9 to 6 vote.
Bernard Cherkasov, CEO of Equality Illinois, the state’s oldest and largest advocacy organization for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender Illinoisans, said so-called “conversion therapies” for youths pretend to supposedly “cure” people of being gay, but have actually proven to be very harmful and are actively opposed by leading mental health and medical professional groups.
“This bill would ensure that the most vulnerable individuals, those already struggling in the face of homophobia and transphobia, are not targeted and subjected to a practice that medical practitioners deem harmful and inappropriate,” Cherkasov said.
The measure would prohibit mental health providers from engaging in any effort to change the sexual orientation of anyone under the age of 18. The bill’s chief House sponsor is state Rep. Kelly Cassidy.
* An August, 2013 Sun-Times editorial also endorsed the concept…
Conversion therapy — trying to turn gay teenagers straight — is awful in three ways:
◆ It does not work.
◆ It can do considerable harm.
◆ It is unnecessary.
On Monday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie signed a bill banning gay conversion therapy in the Garden State, to which we can only say “hallelujah.”
Now when will Illinois do the same?
* The Illinois Family Institute, however, is staunchly opposed…
Lesbian state representative and activist for all things homosexual, Kelly Cassidy (D-Chicago) has introduced yet another terrible piece of legislation that ultimately redounds to the detriment of children.
Rep. Cassidy has proposed “The Conversion Therapy Prohibition Act” (HB 5569), which would prohibit all licensed mental health providers in Illinois from helping minors change their unwanted same-sex attraction. For those who have been paying attention, this is the same kind of pernicious legislation that passed in California and New Jersey but was stopped in Virginia. […]
Here are just a few of the serious problems with this legislation:
It would prevent those children and teens who experience unwanted same-sex attraction as a result of sexual abuse from getting counseling to overcome these unwanted feelings. Some “progressives” argue that homosexuality is not a choice and, therefore, attempts to change one’s “orientation” are exercises in futility and damaging. But arguing that same-sex attraction is not chosen does not mean its cause is benign or the feelings desirable. Some adults experience same-sex attraction because of childhood molestation. For them, same-sex attraction is neither chosen nor wanted.
Several years ago, Oprah Winfrey had a compelling two-part program in which her audience was composed of 200 men who had been sexually molested as children. One of her guests was Dr. Howard Fradkin, a homosexual licensed psychologist who treats clients for sexual orientation confusion resulting from childhood molestation. He stated on the program that children who are sexually molested can, indeed, experience “sexual orientation confusion” as a result. If this legislation passes, children traumatized by abuse will no longer be allowed to receive counseling for unwanted same-sex attraction.
This proposed law is utterly inconsistent with the “progressive” view that children and teens should be allowed to pursue medical means to change their sex if they don’t like it. How do those who claim children and teens should be able to change their unwanted biological sex (i.e., bodies) then argue that children and teens should not be allowed to change their unwanted “sexual orientation”? What, other than hypocrisy and crass political ends, can account for the Left’s sudden lack of respect for teen autonomy? Any minor who experiences unwanted same-sex attraction should be free with their parents’ consent to undergo counseling to change these feelings.
This legislation presumes that same-sex attraction is fixed, a presumption for which the proponents of this kind of legislation provide no evidence and which is disputed by both “Queer Theory” and research. There is research that provides evidence that “sexual orientation” is fluid, particularly among adolescents. If sexual orientation is not fixed and if minors want to receive counseling to reduce or eliminate same-sex attraction, they should be free with their parents’ consent to receive such counseling.
This legislation presumes without evidence that sexual orientation change efforts for unwanted same-sex attraction in adolescence are damaging. There are no outcome-based studies on adolescents undergoing sexual orientation change effort therapy. It is indefensible to ban forms of therapy for which there is no evidence of harm.
This legislation presumes without evidence that homosexuality is biologically determined. The entire “born gay” foundation, dismissed by many homosexual scholars, is crumbling. In a must-read article, David Benkof explains that never in the history of mankind prior to about 150 years ago, was there such a thing as a homosexual person, a claim that even homosexual scholars acknowledge […]
Cassidy’s proposed legislation is destructive, unethical, and dishonest. It depends on unproven, non-factual, non-evidence-based assumptions that even homosexual scholars reject but the public continues to buy hook, line, and sinker. The ultimate motivation behind this legislation is to promote the Leftist assumptions of adult homosexuals who seek to wipe disapproval of homosexual acts from the face of the planet even if doing requires deception, harms children, undermines parental rights, and corrodes fundamental First Amendment speech and religious liberty.
Whew. The world appears to be ending, according to that group.
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Oberweis reacts to Kirk’s Durbin comment
Wednesday, Mar 26, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sen. Mark Kirk, you will recall, said this the other day when asked whether he’d be campaigning for fellow Republican Jim Oberweis’ US Senate bid…
“I’m going to be protecting my relationship with Dick [Durbin] and not launching into a partisan jihad that hurts our partnership to both pull together for Illinois”
* Oberweis reacts…
“Look, Mark is a Republican senator. He’s said he’ll support the entire Republican ticket, and I accept that,” the Sugar Grove Republican told the Chicago Sun-Times during a brief break in the Illinois Senate.
“I think the media was trying to make a lot more out of this than exists,” Oberweis said.
Oberweis insisted he was not disappointed by Kirk publicly distancing himself from the state senator.
“Look, I serve here in the Illinois Senate, and I understand the desire to not irritate people that you’re going to have to work with in the future,” Oberweis said. “But again, I also emphasize he said he’ll support the entire Republican ticket.”
Discuss.
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* Give him credit for taking a very risky stand…
Gov. Pat Quinn has prepared an election-year spending proposal that would make permanent the 67 percent income tax increase set to expire in 2015 and couple it with property tax relief for homeowners, sources familiar with the plan said Tuesday.
Quinn planned to tell lawmakers in his Wednesday budget address that the temporary tax increase he signed into law in 2011 is needed to fund education, said one of the sources who was briefed on his plan but not authorized to reveal the details in advance of the noon speech.
The property tax relief would take the form of a $500 refund, sources said. One source said it would be an annual refund as part of a restructuring of the current property tax break for income tax filers.
Quinn was also expected to tell lawmakers that the alternative is to drop the 5 percent income tax rate to 3.75 as scheduled on Jan. 1, but that would make state programs unsustainable, sources said.
*** UPDATE *** The Sun-Times now has more details…
Quinn’s plan would reconfigure how Illinois homeowners deduct their property taxes by setting up a system in which they would get an automatic $500 tax credit. That change will roughly double the state’s outlay on property tax relief from approximately $650 million to $1.25 billion.
Now, they can deduct 5 percent of their property taxes, which one source called “regressive” because homeowners with more expensive properties get to deduct more than those living in more modest homes.
Since they wouldn’t qualify for the property-tax rebate, low-income renters would draw some benefit from the doubling of the state’s earned income tax credit during the next four years, as Quinn will propose, sources said.
* Related…
* Quinn to tout fiscal successes in budget address: On Tuesday, aides distributed a checklist of upbeat fiscal news Quinn is expected to highlight to a joint session of the House and Senate at noon. Included are reductions in the state’s backlog of bills and cuts in the state’s operating budget because of changes to the Medicaid program, the closure of prisons and savings in state office leases.
* Quinn’s budget may make income tax increase permanent
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