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Quinn’s base problem
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * A new poll of 1,085 likely voters conducted by We Ask America for the Chicago Sun-Times finds Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn 51-38. The most explicable difference between this poll and one leaked to Michael Sneed by the Quinn campaign (and which I also obtained and gave to subscribers) is that this WAA poll is of likely voters. The Quinn numbers, which had him down by one point, were registered voters - which is almost always a more Democratic universe in off-year elections. * But check this out: “Which gubernatorial candidate do you consider to be a reformer?…  Oof. So much for “You know who I am.” And check out some of the crosstabs on this question…  Look at how few Democrats and Chicagoans consider Quinn to be a reformer. * Which candidate for governor do you think understands your every day concerns?…  No success yet in painting Rauner as an out of touch billionaire. From the xtabs…  Quinn really has problems with his base, not to mention with independents. Ouch. * Which candidate for governor is more likely to solve Illinois’ budget problems?…  Despite the fact that Rauner’s plan would blow a gigantic hole in the state budget, even Democrats aren’t thrilled with Quinn’s plan…  * Back to the Sun-Times story…
Most of those Democrats will “come home.” And if you look at the xtabs, 12 percent of Democrats were undecided. So the race will obviously tighten up down the stretch.
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- Western Ave. Doug - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:45 am:
If those Suburban Cook numbers are anywhere close to accurate, then Gov. Quinn will be pulling his pension and benefiting from those Cayman investments.
- lake county democrat - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:49 am:
Quinn threw his own reform commission under the bus. Quinn didn’t want to have a special election to fill the vacant Obama senate seat when he thought he was going to be the one to get to make the pick. Quinn pushes phony policy questions on the ballot but doesn’t try to get the legislature that is favored 63-14% by the public. And would anybody say he’s done a -good- job policing the ethics of the programs in his control? Rauner wins this one merely by default.
- lake county democrat - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:50 am:
(ok, I SWEAR that part of my last post got cut off (I’m using Opera as my browser - should that matter?)) I meant that Quinn didn’t push to get the legislature to put the term limits question on the ballot.
- Peoria guy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:52 am:
Politics are unpredictable, but it sure looks like Rauner will be our next governor.
- Hit or Miss - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:53 am:
The thing that I note is that ‘neither’ plus ‘unsure’ equals about 25% of the voters. This number will decrease as the elections nears but it looks large to me considering that Quinn has been in office for years and Rauner has spent millions spreading his message. Is this an indication that many of the voters have only a shallow attraction to the two candidates?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:53 am:
I am of the belief that Rauner is up between 6-10 points, well beyond the margin of error of any poll anyone believes or not from either Crew.
===Most of those Democrats will “come home.” And if you look at the xtabs, 12 percent of Democrats were undecided. So the race will obviously tighten up down the stretch.===
Here is where I totally agree;
If the “number” is 12%, the “room” is there for Quinn to close at the end, but it really, truly, is going to come down to who can find the identified pluses and vote them.
Any votes left on the table will be a huge mistake, and this time, it will be more damaging to Quinn.
Disastrous poll for Quinn. If you take it as it reads, it is as though Quinn’s self identity is lost, no matter if the voter is paying attention or not to the Quinn positive messaging. Yikes.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:53 am:
Not surprising.
Quinn hasn’t kept his voter base from 2010. As events went south in Illinois, Quinn didn’t get out and show his voter base that he was meeting those issues head on. Quinn didn’t keep telling and showing voters that he was dedicated to ousting the corrupted Democrats in office and he didn’t find a way to work with the other political leaders in his own party so that he can succeed politically.
Mr. Quinn’s struggles are so amazing in that he has been a statewide Democrat for decades. He is in the same group of Illinois Democrats as Michael J. Madigan and John Cullerton, Jesse White and Richard M. Daley, Emil Jones and so many others. How could a guy be a part of all of this for so long, but not have a plan once he ended up in the governor’s office? Each of these men are known to one another. No surprises. They know their agreements, likes and dislikes. After almost two terms in office as the Lt. Governor, we don’t see Pat Quinn knowing what to do as governor. What’s up with that? You can’t blame Madigan, because Quinn has known that guy for a generation.
Before that, Pat Quinn was Illinois treasurer. So, here is a governor with a long history of statewide experience - so what is with all the bumbling? If anyone should have hit the ground prepared for anything, it should have been Pat Quinn.
So, right now a whole lot of the state is trying to decide when Pat Quinn is going to show them that he can meet their expectations as governor. He got a second chance in 2010. Will he get a third?
Polls today show that voters have run out of patience for this amazingly passive statewide leader who lucked into the governor’s office, then wondered how he got there.
- MyNameHere - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:53 am:
Is the 16.85% “Neither” vote higher than usual?
- William j Kelly - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:54 am:
More trouble for Quinn, the same poll also showed rauner more patriotic than George Washington, more intelligent than Einstein and more gorgeous than Raquel Welch.
- Boone's is Back - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 9:58 am:
Suburban Cook and Collars is what should be scaring PQ. That’s the canary in the coal mine.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:00 am:
In the Sun Times article, the pollster’s COO said he expects the race to get much closer. I also do not expect Rauner to win this by double digits–unless the NRI scandal bears some more bad fruit for Quinn in October.
We have to remember that it’s not just one poll that predicts races, it’s the totality of polls. Other polls show a closer race. Even still, polling averages show Rauner ahead, but not by double digits.
Turnout is also another key to this race. The unions may play a key roll in this race, as they did in the primary.
- phocion - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:04 am:
Some takeaways from these results:
1. The NRI and IDOT scandals have taken away Quinn’s reputation as a reformer and good government advocate.
2. Without having a reputation as a reformer, Quinn’s raison d’etre has disappeared. Voters tolerated bumbling if accompanied by honest. They now think we have neither as Governor.
3. Rauner’s business background is a plus, despite Quinn’s efforts to make it a negative. In fact, Quinn’s attempts may have backfired with voters who see private sector experience as a plus compared with a lifetime of public service.
4. Yes, some Democrats may “come home.” But quite a few are likely to “stay home” come election day.
5. The suburban Cook numbers are devastating to Quinn. Devastating. Unsure how he can patch that hole in the next few months. Likely he can’t.
6. There is little to move large numbers of Latinos and African Americans to the polls to support Quinn. While Vallas did no harm, it looks like he didn’t help like possibly Neely would have (but she may have been a big turn-off to those outside of the African American base).
7. Rauner has run a disciplined and effective campaign. Quinn’s campaign frankly is better than it was 4 years ago, but he’s got a much bigger hill to climb now it seems.
8. Still too early to measure the drapes, and events can come up to sink Rauner or save Quinn, but this is bad, bad for Quinn.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:05 am:
The unions may play a key roll in this race, as they did in the primary.
They did this for two reasons.
1) They voted against Rauner.
2) They voted for Dillard.
Now that Rauner has attempted to cool his anti-union blathering and he is opposing Pat Quinn, that scenario is most definitely not the same. You cannot assume all the Dillard voters in the primary were doing so as anti-Rauner union voters who will simply shift over to Quinn. Not going to happen.
- zatoichi - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:07 am:
How can Rauner be considered a reformer when he has not actually done anything that can be directly tracked to his efforts in Springfield and what has he reformed except his bank account? This reads more like general dissatisfaction with Quinn because he is currently wearing the coat while people are angry at the required solutions.
- A guy... - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:08 am:
If you blend these polls you’d get a much more believable of Rauner up 4-5 points. I would guess that’s about where it is. Soft Dems and Indy’s are the ballgame here to me and it’s about the economy and ever rising real estate taxes in NE Illinois. That Rauner is doing well with the tweeners is good news, as is he’s up at 50% now. If he can hold them, he won’t have to “change” minds. He can keep pounding the “haven’t made up my mind” group out there.
People don’t seem to care if it’s a pauper or a tycoon now, they need things to improve and Illinois’ collective ego needs a boost.
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:08 am:
Wonder if the Quinn folks have another poll they are going to give to Sneed that shows everything is ok.
- Norseman - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:09 am:
Pat you’re not helping!
It appears that Quinn’s lucky streak is coming to an end. His incompetence has led to numerous hits on his credibility. Rauner has been on the air with ads reminding folks of his mistakes and the sorry state of finances. Quinn’s campaign has been slow with ads and appears to love ineffective Internet ads.
The unions are going to have to work triple time to bail this goof out.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:10 am:
===Now that Rauner has attempted to cool his anti-union blathering and he is opposing Pat Quinn, that scenario is most definitely not the same.===
Oh yeah, those Unions are now warning up to Rauner, lol.
If anything, the Union leadership has made it quite clear that Rauner is a non-starter.
Unless. “Slip and Sue” does some of her magic to Union leaders, like forget the Primary, or the Scott Walker love, cool or not cool, the language of Walker is red hot against Unions.
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:16 am:
Heck I think you might find is anti-union stuff is making him appear to be the reformer.
Would be interesting to see a poll on public opinion about public employee unions. A neutral poll not put out by pro or anti groups.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:22 am:
===Would be interesting to see a poll on public opinion about public employee unions. A neutral poll not put out by pro or anti groups.===
I would too. Those would be interesting numbers up for discussion.
You have to admit, thou, losing 17 points in 6 weeks, generated from the Anti-Union genesis scares more than helps.
Why?
If Bruce thought going full-tilt Scott Walker would win this, he would. The Primary reminded the entire Rauner Crew;
“Illinois isn’t Wisconsin.”
- William j Kelly - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:28 am:
As we speak the rauner campaign is scrambling to figure out how I knew they were preparing a poll showing rauner more gorgeous than Raquel Welch. Lol
- Norseman - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:28 am:
To make Illinois into Wisconsin, Raunervich has to up his contributions to his corrupt legislative friends by gigantic amounts. Sun Times had a story about his distribution thus far. That isn’t going to cut it when looking at the tight grip the Democrats have on the General Assembly.
- Titus Lucretius Carus - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:32 am:
Two terrible candidates; one known, one unknown… The unknown will preach something along the lines of “hope and change”, while the other needs to convince us he’s better than his proven track record… Hmmm, sounds kinda like the 2008 Presidential election…
Will we ever have a general election with two good candidates? Or even one good candidate… I won’t hold my breath…
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:32 am:
Oh, - Norseman -, only 1/3 of the GOP GA is corrupt. I am sure after “teaching” MJM and Cullerton, Bruce will show he can work with anyone. “Raunervich” indeed.
I still wonder..,which 44 are “a-ok” for Rauner, and which 22 are just corrupt in My Party’s Caucuses…
- Aldyth - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:35 am:
A lot of dissatisfied voters in a “throw the rascals out” mood.
- Jechislo - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:40 am:
“How can Rauner be considered a reformer when he has not actually done anything that can be directly tracked to his efforts in Springfield and what has he reformed except his bank account?”
This is about the people of Illinois being fed up with ‘politicians’. Quinn is a professional politician. Rauner is a businessman. Maybe a businessman that you don’t particularly agree with, but a businessman all the same.
This is why Dillard would be losing to Quinn at this point. He was just another professional politician. Illinois is ready to give a non-political person who can govern as a CEO a chance to get this State out of this mess, not someone who has lived off of the public for his entire career.
Illinois is ready for a huge change. They are ready for someone to shake up Illinois. It’s still going to be a very close election, but Rauner is going to come out on top and be our next Governor.
- walker - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:40 am:
No one can still be the “reformer” after 6+ years in office. No one.
So when things are “bad”, they’re under siege. Barring image disasters, the “anyone but” candidate can win.
It all turns on whether folks generally perceive much hope or confidence by Nov.
VMan has felt the public pulse all along.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:41 am:
“If Bruce thought going full-tilt Scott Walker would win this, he would.”
I agree, Willy. The only reason Rauner stopped the attacks on unions is because he almost had his behind handed to him in the primary. Unions remember what he said in the primary, and how he demonized hundreds if not thousands of union leaders.
Union leaders are much more than the president and vice president of the entire union. They are presidents of locals, stewards, executive board members, activist members, etc. Rauner’s negative statements are extended to all these people and not just the likes of Karen Lewis and Henry Bayer.
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:42 am:
With Rahm no doubt….
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 10:49 am:
===This is why Dillard would be losing to Quinn at this point. He was just another professional politician.===
You have some proof how Dillard would be doing?
No.
===Illinois is ready to give a non-political person who can govern as a CEO a chance to get this State out of this mess, not someone who has lived off of the public for his entire career.===
Then the voters better be ready for an even greater disappointment.
The Executive in Illinois Government is not a CEO. The Executive in Illinois government as described in that pesky Constitution is 1/3 of all Illinois government, with all three branches equal.
Maybe those voters will not be the only ones disappointed. Bruce Rauner will be very disappointed too.
Governing is hard. Being a CEO who is hands on, except when he’s not, that’s not governing. You can’t fire the legislature, you can’t force the Supremes to take early retirement to be on another board in the company. Governing is hard. The only thing in common with the word Executive in governing and in business is the spelling.
- Federalist - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 11:01 am:
If Rauner wins( not a done deal) and the GA is Democrat ( basically a done deal) it will sure provide for some interesting times and political reporters and junkies will be in 7th heaven.
- Not Rich - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 11:16 am:
Quinn needs more than some Democrats come home tightening.. He needs to bury Rauner in the City and Cook..
- Toure's Latte - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 11:40 am:
It’ll take more than those Freedom PAC ads about Rauner not paying taxes. No one likes to pay taxes. They should be hitting him on how he hurts other people, not how he succeeds financially.
- Cassandra - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 11:41 am:
The Democrats have the numbers (of registered voters) in Illinois but they have to show up. So Rauner should hope a lot of ‘em don’t. It’s the midterms, after all, and we citizens are kind of lazy, judging by turnout numbers from past elections. One way to help that might be for Rauner to restrain himself from virulent attacks on unions, union members, the minimum wage, and other issues of concern to working and middle class voters. Stick with tax relief, change, and anti-corruption efforts and talk about how inclusive you can be. Because those Democrats who do show up are going to have a hard time pulling the lever for a Republican plutocrat. It’s still Quinn’s election to lose.
- Rod - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 11:42 am:
A guy very correctly wrote above: “People don’t seem to care if it’s a pauper or a tycoon now, they need things to improve and Illinois’ collective ego needs a boost.” The Quinn camp seems to think by focusing on Rauner’s wealth it is actually carrying out some type of class war strategy, that is nonsense.
It’s not possible for a Governor who selected the great privatizer of public schools Paul Vallas, to in any way claim to be the champion of the public sector or progressivism. Moreover Quinn has an anti union track record.
Here is what AFSCME Council 31 said of Quinn in 2012: “Governor Quinn’s actions in our home state directly contradict our party’s (that’s the Democratic party) professed values.”
According to AFSCME, those actions included canceling the raises of 26,000 public employees in 2011. Quinn can’t effectively wage a believable class war on Rauner when he himself went to war against public sector unions.
The chickens are coming home to roost.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 11:56 am:
==a non-political person==
How is politican Bruce Rauner “non-political”? How are millions of donations to the political funds of Rahm Emanuel, Richard Daley, Ed Rendell, and GOPers “non-political”?
==VMan has felt the public pulse all along.==
That’d be new. His pulse on Obama was always way off.
- Arizona Bob - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 11:57 am:
The difference I’ve seen in Rauner from Brady in 2010, amongst MANY, is that Rauner is running like he’s behind and understands that he needs a subtantial showing in Cook to win. He’s engaging and funding suburban Cook organizations to get out the vote and energize the base.
Those supporting Quinn financially and with boots on the ground, such as the unions, have to be thinking long and hard about the upcoming “campaign triage” decisions they’ll soon have to make.
Illinois politically driven unions didn’t show themselves to be too astute at this in the GOP gubernatorial primaries. They had both Rutherford (choice 1) and Dillard (choice 2) bought and paid for, but they were very slow in shifting resources from Rutherford to Dillard. I’m convinced that if they switched sooner and got the damaged Rutherford out of the race sooner,they could have knocked off Rauner in the primary with Dem crossover votes alone.
If the metrics show Quinn is a dead duck, the DGA and union funding will dry up and all those out of state union door knockers (mostly from Michigan I understand) won’t be there to jack up the vote in the final two weeks as in 2010.
There are simply better gubernatorial bets out there than in Illinois.
With all the uncontested GA races in the city, it’ll be tough to get the vote out in this midterm. If Quinn doesn’t keep the unions and DGA “all in” I don’t see how he pulls this out. I also don’t see Madigan using up his resources in a big way for Quinn. My guess is that he’d have an easier time dealing with pragmitist Rauner than pseudo idealist Quinn for the next four years.
- wordslinger - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 12:02 pm:
I’m starting to think that raising taxes and cutting spending to make full pension payments and pay down old bills isn’t universally popular.
If I were Rauner, I’d lay off that Voter ID/Voter Integrity stuff that was related in Bernie’s column the other day. Might not be wise to poke the bear.
- PolPal56 - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 12:03 pm:
I know that if I were polled today, I would say “neither.” And I’d probably say it right up to the minute I walk into the voting booth. Then I’ll drink the kool-aid and vote PQ.
I say the majority of undecideds and neithers will vote Quinn, they just don’t want to admit it yet. They refuse to give PQ the satisfaction.
- Sue - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 12:13 pm:
Any objective assessment of where Illinois stands in terms of growth, employment, pension funding, etc. has to result in a conclusion that Quinn does not deserve to be reelected- Given his past experience, Rauner’s expertise might be a plus for Illinois in terms of the next four years- Does anyone actually think Rauner will be worse?
- Mokenavince - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 12:27 pm:
This will end up as a close race. Quinn is still thought of as an honest guy, but still a dope.
Rauner may still get let down by the far right wing of the Republican party.
Either way Madigan’s still the boss.
- TRUTH BE TOLD - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:34 pm:
Does the IMA own the WAA poll? Do they get a number of their respondants from their web site?
- VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:39 pm:
His pulse on Obama was always way off.
Cute, but wrong. Too bad this website can’t let you print in color, because your comment should be in deep, deep jealousy green.
When an accidental governor runs for reelection, voters often let him catch a break. What he got in 2010, he never would have gotten in 2014, after a full term in office. This election is the answer to the question voters had four years ago.
It seems they are telling Quinn - “you had your chance to show us what you can do. NEXT!”
- Anon. - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:42 pm:
==How can Rauner be considered a reformer when he has not actually done anything==
You could ask the same question about Quinn. He certainly has done nothing noteworthy to reform Illinois government since becoming governor. How many voters even know about his two big accomplishments as a reformer — CUB and downsizing the general assembly? And even for those voters who do remember, the first is of minor value and the second turned out to be anti-reform.
- Skeptic - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:57 pm:
“Does anyone actually think Rauner will be worse?” One word: Yes.
- wordslinger - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:00 pm:
–When an accidental governor runs for reelection, voters often let him catch a break–
Often? How about a five or six examples that would prove your thoughtful theory. Or are you just making stuff up to pass the time of day?
- VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:28 pm:
Here are a few -
Governors:
Jan Brewer
Rick Perry
Sean Parnell
Bruce Babbitt
Howard Dean
Presidents:
Theodore Roosevelt
Harry Truman
Calvin Coolidge
- Mason born - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:29 pm:
-Quinn is still thought of as an honest guy, but still a dope.–
What happens when the few that believe that realize they have been had. Nri, patronage, and last week lying about fixing patronage. The belief in pats honesty is fading. Even worse all of it will be front page news in October right when those who are too busy now start tuning in.
- wordslinger - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:58 pm:
I’m pretty sure Rick Perry won in Texas because he was the Republican. I’m certain LBJ won because his opponent was Barry Goldwater.
Trying to gin-up some unifying “theory” on elections for different offices in different places in different eras is silly.
- walker - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:59 pm:
Sue: ==”Does anyone actually think Rauner will be worse?”==
It depends.
“Yes”, if Rauner actually believes some of the nonsense he said to win Conservative superPAC funding, and the Primary election. Like Scott Walker being the “best governor in America”, or let’s shut down the government if the unions won’t agree with a salary reduction, or “switch to a 401K plan to solve the pension funding problem”. All would be actual disasters. Rauner could sacrifice any chance of real recovery in Illinois on the altar of ideology.
On the other hand, if Rauner was just talking, didn’t really mean it, and he would act in a more reasonable and skillful way — them maybe No.
- A guy... - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 4:06 pm:
Walk, there’s no greater “power sander” than a legislature, no matter who’s in charge of it. Ideals go there to die, but spawn ideas.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 5:04 pm:
Given his past experience, Rauner’s expertise might be a plus for Illinois in terms of the next four years- Does anyone actually think Rauner will be worse?
Since 1998, we have had an unbelievably long run of “worse” in the governor’s chair in IL. Nothing would surprise us anymore.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 5:06 pm:
==- Sue - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 12:13 pm:==
What expertise? He’s a salesman, in his own words.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 8:33 pm:
Good grief I could give you another five names, but you’ll keep blowing hot air and claim I didn’t prove my point.
Give up. You are behind.
- Common Sense - Tuesday, Aug 12, 14 @ 3:22 am:
As l predicted four years ago that Pat Quinn will be elected as the Governor of the state of Illinois. Take it to bank Pat Quinn will be re-elected.