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Final thoughts before calling it a night
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * Bruce Rauner is heading to the relatively sparsely populated Downstate on the final weekend of the campaign. Gov. Quinn just started running a deliberately incendiary ad on black radio stations for the campaign’s home stretch. Does it look to any of you like maybe both of these guys have some base issues?
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- Angry Chicagoan - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:02 pm:
Maybe, though in different ways. Rauner has made a huge pitch for black votes, and Quinn’s trying to counter that. But I don’t think Downstate ever really was part of Rauner’s base; he just didn’t imagine it would be a problem until quite late in the game. Bill Brady’s one of Downstate’s own; Rauner most definitely is not, in so many ways.
- the Other Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:04 pm:
Depends.
If the radio ad is designed to boost turnout, then there’s no problem with Quin and African American voters. If it’s intended to change salvaging voters’ mind about possibly voting for Rauner instead, then it’s a base problem.
I suspect it’s about increasing turnout for Quinn.
On the other hand, I think it’s more likely that Rauner has base problems because of the mixed messages he is sending on social issues. Illinois Review has the email Diane Rauner sent defending Bruce from Personal PAC ads. That email is enough to switch some prolife votes to Grimm.
- Casual Observer - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:05 pm:
They are both doing what they need to do…bring out the vote. I’m surprised neither seems to address Latinos. Aren’t thet traditionally under counted in polls?
- Casual Observer - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:06 pm:
They
- RNUG - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:06 pm:
I think they both are worried about their internal polls showing they may not be able to count on a group they expected to support them.
I have to admit, this has been one of the strangest election years I can remember … and there may yet be another surprise or two after all the votes are counted. Win or lose, both sides will be trying to figure out exactly where they went wrong in their assumptions.
- Uh... - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:09 pm:
If it’s wrong for Rauner to include the race of these guys in his story, not sure you should be calling them “black” radio stations.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:14 pm:
===not sure you should be calling them “black” radio stations. ===
Um, it’s pertinent to the explanation, totally unlike Rauner’s comment. Would you rather I just said radio stations? That wouldn’t make much sense. It’s a highly targeted market. There are Latino stations too. Is it wrong to call them that?
You are just looking for a way to get upset. You might wanna chill out and look at context first.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:17 pm:
Very good takeaway.
Both Crews have fundamental problems. They both always had.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:18 pm:
Also, “Uh,” being from Anna, I’m not sure you have a leg to stand on in this particular topic.
- walker - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:18 pm:
Yes. The key question is about insuring turnout. Actual switchers will be few, compared to those in each base who are at risk of sitting this one out.
- Adlai - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:19 pm:
C’mon Rich- running an ad on select radio stations =\ using a weekend of the principal’s time to campaign in a specific area. At the very least, Rauner’s problems are a couple of magnitudes greater than Quinn’s.
- ironman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:22 pm:
Rauner’s base will come home. A lot of people down south do not like Quinn. I have a very large prect. Down south. Almost all voters will swing rauner.. light dems and independents.. rauner has game and the dems have been sleeping. You will see Tuesday night..
- Who Knows - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:22 pm:
I think it shows they both have problems with base. So question is , who does it affect more?
If I’m Rauner not good if downstate is not engaged.
If Quinn big trouble if AA not engaged.
And last but not least all these polls are for the birds.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:24 pm:
I would not describe it as a problem for Quinn.
Normally, you close with your base.
Quinn is advertising with his base, but where is he campaigning? Rock Island, Rockford, champaign.
Quinn seems to be leaning forward in his saddle.
I am surprised they are sending Rauner downstate and not to the collar counties. That should be his base.
- Leprechaun - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:25 pm:
If AA vote has to be pushed by these last minute adds Quinn in trouble.
At this point if PQ doesn’t have the AA vote tied down he has major problems
- K3 - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:28 pm:
You’re assuming Rauner’s base is downstate. I thought it was the Winnetka/Barrington top 5%ers
- Adlai - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:29 pm:
I’m pretty sure the polls have consistently shown that Quinn has +75% of the AA vote. He’s not “locking it down” anymore, he’s trying to maximize it.
- Truly Said - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:32 pm:
Adlai I have a real surprise for you, if he has only 75 percent then Rauner can move in the governors mansion tomorrow
- Samurai - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:33 pm:
==Rauner’s base will come home==
It is getting increasingly difficult to determine who Rauner’s base is or was, let alone that they will come home. Ken Griffin?
- Truly Said - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:34 pm:
25 if AA out of chicago means about 35 in Chicago. Don’t tell the Quinn people that or they will be all reading the want adds Sunday
- Sox fan - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:37 pm:
It’s been mentioned throughout the campaign, but needs repeating: Off-year elections are all about turnout. The GOP side appears to be energized. Quinn needs to ensure his base is energized too. That’s what this ad aims to achieve.
- Levi - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:37 pm:
Smart move by Quinn: soon enough to matter, too late for the sure-to-come backlash.
- Adlai - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:40 pm:
Truly Said, I deliberately low balled it; all the polls I’ve seen show PQ with comfortably more than 80%, I just didn’t want someone to come in and say “nuh uh! The Palookaville Post says he’s only getting 79%!”
At any rate, if you’re getting more than 3/4 of any given constituency, you’ve already locked that constituency down. Any TLC you give it from there is about maximizing your advantage, not repairing the relationship.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:49 pm:
It’s not like you play to win by a little. If Rauner wanted to get in the big game he should have watched his mouth.
- Almost the Weekend - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:53 pm:
This is a case of bizarro Bill Brady. Rauner has to be cleaning house in suburbs and collar counties, but is struggling in downstate. Bill Brady was a social conservative, but also disliked unions. Not to mention he is from downstate, and one of their own. Rauner hates unions and is a social moderate. Unfortunately when Rauner opened an exploratory committee in 2013, somebody forgot to tell him Thompson, Edgar, and Ryan put jails, and other government buildings/services in Republican strong holds downstate. Flash forward 20-30 years and these employees are now members of public unions. Most importantly the major economic driver in these communities. As much as they hate PQ, they have to vote for him or their savings and pocketbook is at risk. On the hand social conservatives have no motivation to vote, it’s that’s simple. I hope that Rauner bus blows out dollar bills on Interstate 57, 74, 72, and 70 instead of carbon monoxide or he’s done.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:57 pm:
If both Rauner and Quinn have base problems, the question becomes, what works to gin up turnout? Will the downstate campaigning and radio ads work? That we will soon know (or maybe not so soon).
- Under Further Review - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 12:07 am:
As much as I disapprove of this stunt by Quinn, it does serve to reinforce the idea that his campaign is largely following themes developed by the national Democratic Party. For months, Quinn has been recycling Obama’s class warfare and wealth envy that was used against Mitt Romney to beat up on Rauner. More to the point in several election contest around the USA, the Democrats have been playing the race card in a series of vicious attacks to gin up African American voter turn out (Louisiana and North Carolina). Many of the attacks are false, but it is cut throat politics.
- Norseman - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 12:24 am:
Folks have rightly referenced turnout. Now will see if the Dem ballot measures have the desired effect.
- Norseman - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 12:28 am:
Now back to watching something not as wired as this election has been - Mars Attack.
- Under Further Review - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 12:28 am:
Another question about Quinn’s race baiting campaign ad: Did Rauner actually contribute to any group or committee seeking to impeach President Obama?
The only ones talking about impeachment have been Democratic party fundraisers who have used the prospect as a means of shaking down donors.
- Buzz Fugazi - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 12:29 am:
It’s nice that Bruce can joke about encountering black guys without his gun. Just another sign we are living in a post-racial, post-PC, post-Trayvon era. I suppose the Ferguson riots hadn’t happened yet? Well, the important thing is that racism is a thing of the past and we can all joke about it now. Rauner has decreed it. Anyone other than me see the humor in minimum wage hike on the ballot and term limits not?
- Illinoisvoter - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:20 am:
The great thing about playing with your own money
is that you can do whatever you want. The bad
thing is that too often you do just that and
dig yourself one hell of a hole. A little over
two thirds of the votes in this election will
be cast in metro Chicago. Downstate will generate
larger percentages of Republican ballots, but
not more votes. For those you need NW Cook and
a pivot in DuPage County where Obama got 50,000
more votes in 2012 than 2008. If the people in
his campaign couldn’t challenge Rauner why
would anyone think he could govern?
- Louis Howe - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 6:28 am:
Like most rural voters, downstate has a populist bent that I’m not sure the billionaire Rauner has overcome. Should be interesting to see how Rauner runs in the 30 Downstate Counties Quinn lost in the Democratic Primary.
- Arsenal - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 8:12 am:
“The only ones talking about impeachment have been Democratic party fundraisers who have used the prospect as a means of shaking down donors.”
And the Republicans’ 2008 VP candidate. And Senators Inhofe and Coburn. And Darrel Issa.
The idea that Dems started the impeachment conversation is based on wishes, not facts.
- The Captain - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 8:16 am:
It’s just GOTV. Go where your votes are and run up the score.
- Under Further Review - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 8:33 am:
@Arsenal:
When exactly did the US House authorize a committee to conduct an investigation to frame Articles of Impeachment? The Speaker of the House said that no such effort would occur during the present Congress, but that has not stopped Democrats from trying to raise funds and rally their base by claiming all throughout 2014 that impeachment is imminent.
Nice try, but go blow smoke somewhere else.
- Anonymous - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 8:45 am:
I live in a small Southern County. Four years ago in the Halloween parade the local Repubs had a Brady for Governor float and about 50 to 60 people walking in Brady shirts. Last night at the Halloween parade no Rauner float and not one person walking for Rauner.
- Bored Chairman - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 8:49 am:
True story. I live in Cook County. Was seriously undecided, leaning Quinn. Just read on this blog that Quinn is fanning racial flames in the AA community to win an election. Am going to vote against Quinn in early voting today. And not for the union spoiler Chad Grimm. Plus one for Rauner. Thank you Pat Quinn for exposing your true divisive nature before I mistakenly cast a vote for you. You are truly pathetic.
- Anonymous - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 8:57 am:
- is fanning racial flames -
Did he make Rauner tell that story?
- Grandson of Man - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 9:03 am:
“Thank you Pat Quinn for exposing your true divisive nature before I mistakenly cast a vote for you. You are truly pathetic.”
LOL. Yeah, right.
- 618662dem - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 9:11 am:
Your high if you think rauner will do better down state then Brady, ain’t happening.
- wndycty - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 9:15 am:
“Thank you Pat Quinn for exposing your true divisive nature before I mistakenly cast a vote for you. You are truly pathetic.”
Let me get this straight. Bruce Rauner and his allies having been running around trying to convince us Black folk that Pat Quinn is bad for us, yet you are calling Quinn divisive? What? Huh?
“‘Pat Quinn has been a total failure for the African American community of Illinois and the governor’s failures were on full display,’ Rauner campaign spokesman Mike Schrimp said in a statement.”
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2014/10/15/rauner-nails-illinois-gov-pat-quinn-as-worst-governor-in-america-during-second-debate-n1905672
- 618662dem - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 9:16 am:
Somebody using bored chairman as their name was never voting democrat.
- Grandson of Man - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 9:23 am:
Here is something that might assuage some frayed nerves and short tempers. A new poll has Quinn leading by almost 5 points.
http://www.illinoisobserver.net/2014/11/01/poll-gov-pat-quinn-leads-bruce-rauner-home-stretch/
The African American numbers need to be better for Quinn, but the poll generally bodes well for him, and if the turnout is good enough, he may be able to win with the numbers in the poll.
- 618662dem - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 9:34 am:
Rauner had to be up by an average of at least five IMO to have made this a race, he is down 1 or 2 so I don’t see a path for him to get a plurality.
- MIMI - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 9:37 am:
So it gets a few Undecideds to vote for Rauner, it gets AA out in droves. The impeachment story also helps.
Mary Mitchell,from the suntimes, said that the blacks who Rauner paid to support him are really working for Quinn. She also said he will pick up AA votes in the low single digits. LOL
- Wordslinger - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 10:20 am:
“not sure you should be calling them black radio stations…”
How about “urban?” That’s the term used within the industry for ratings and advertising. Feel better?
You must be aware that radio stations are laser-focused by format? That’s how they make their money. Rush is not followed on the air by DJ Suss One.
All this divisiveness. In the spirit of unity, I think both candidates should broadcast their Spanish language TV and radio spots on the major network stations. Like during Wheel of Fortune on TV, or Sean Hannity on the radio.
And I’m certain that Rauner is blasting his “no social agenda” spots all over Southern Illinois. It’s divisive to have different messages in different parts of the state.
That’s never happened in Illinois.
- MrJM - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 10:38 am:
“Rauner’s base will come home.”
Presumes facts not in evidence.
What makes you think Bruce Rauner has a GOP base?
– MrJM
- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 10:47 am:
===What makes you think Bruce Rauner has a GOP base?===
Winner.
Ignoring the GOP base was “fun” for the Rauner Crew. Now it’s as fun as baking a cake and forgetting to add eggs or sugar, or flour, and wondering why it won’t bake.
- Thursday's Child - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 11:00 am:
Rauner did not just ignore conservatives, he deliberately insulted them in some ways.
- Grandson of Man - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 11:02 am:
“Rauner did not just ignore conservatives, he deliberately insulted them in some ways.”
If Rauner does wind up losing, all that early union-smashing could be a big reason.
One or more of the commenters said that conservative union members who are not with Rauner now won’t come back to him.
- Thursday's Child - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 11:04 am:
Probably so, Grandson.
- Thursday's Child - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 11:08 am:
Rauner’s base was more of a donor’s base than a voter’s base. He raised a lot of money from very well-off people from around the country. Rahm also did this. Rahm had less people to convince in less time to vote for him in a city election than Rauner did/does in a state election. It will be a close race either way.
- Samurai - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 11:28 am:
@Bored Chairman -@ 8:49 am:True story.==
Bored. Another True Story. Just left a business meeting in Chicago and was discussing the campaign with several DuPage and collar county Republicans. Rauner’s recent public statements about taxing legal services has some R’s thinking he is a loon and they will vote Quinn. I am one of those Rs. This is a True story.
- DuPage Bard - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 12:42 pm:
I think Quinn’s support in the AA community is fine, this ad as well as the last 2 have been out there to get people worried or angry enough to get to the polls. Quinn needs to make sure everyone shows up.
I think Rauner is making an error, he should be rallying the Collar Counties and let Evelyn shake the cages downstate. Have her hit some prayer circles, revivals and Christmas craft shows this weekend.
- Anonymous - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:02 pm:
Rauner has tried to present himself in the campaign as a moderate Republican, which is what Jim Edgar has always said is the best way for a Republican to win a statewide general election in Illinois.
- Stupid republicans ! - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:07 pm:
Dillard would be a million votes in the lead…. Quinn’s money would have already dried up.
- Thursday's Child - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:31 pm:
I remember when the “collar counties” were considered “Downstate” for all ethnocentric Cook County intents and purposes. What are now considered suburbs e.g. Joliet, Waukegan, Aurora, Elgin were indeed satellite cities of Chicago.
- Thursday's Child - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:35 pm:
Oswego: Rauner tried to bake his cake with the Easy-Bake Oven and took the light bulb (conservatives) out. Hence, no cake. A commenter said earlier this year to pack a lunch running against Quinn. We will see.