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*** UPDATED x3 - Frerichs closes in *** Chicago: At least 24,000 votes left to count

Thursday, Nov 6, 2014

* The Chicago Board of Election Commissioners has updated its totals online. This latest info could be crucial to the too close to call state treasurer’s race. From a press release…

Here are the biggest items that remain:

    - Absentee Ballots: Approximately 9,900 absentee ballots that were received Monday and Tuesday, plus 1,500 that arrived on Wednesday that had postmarks of Nov. 3 or earlier.

    - Approximately 10,000 in-precinct provisional ballots from 48 wards, excluding what we still needed to retrieve from all of the 3rd Ward and parts of the 4th Ward.

    - Approximately 2,900 Same-Day registration provisional ballots from Monday and Tuesday

There then is a universe of 11,400 absentee ballots that were mailed out to voters but not yet returned, which hypothetically could have a Nov. 3 or earlier postmark and arrive by close of business Nov. 18. Some of those may arrive and qualify to be counted, and others may arrive postmarked too late to be counted, and still others may never arrive if the voter decided instead to vote in the polling place on Election Day.

That totals over 24,000, plus whatever additional absentees they receive.

* The AP has Cross ahead by 21,011 votes. Reuters has Cross ahead by 3,552 votes. I’m not sure who’s right, but I tend to trust the experienced AP more than Reuters.

*** UPDATE 1 *** Forget about the AP, forget about Reuters. Scott Kennedy’s online tracker has, by far, the most updated numbers. And right now, the tracker has Cross up by only 13,202 votes. That could easily be wiped out by those Chicago ballots.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Kennedy updated his numbers…

Yikes.

*** UPDATE 3 *** Kennedy explains his update

I went to all the election authority websites again tonight and updated any data that was new in the tracker. Here’s a summary of what’s new:

    City of Chicago – they finally included the last 6 uncounted precincts in their totals, they now have 100% precincts reporting. It appears that the City of Chicago totals only show regular votes, it doesn’t appear they have vote by mail votes or any provisionals (including same day registration) counted. See more on that here. Frerichs had a net gain here of 1,171 votes.

    Cook County Suburbs – they added a little over 6,500 votes to their existing numbers, I’m guessing these were vote by mail ballots. Frerichs had a net gain here of 1,509 votes.

    Jackson County – they added almost 1,700 votes to their existing numbers, Frerichs had a net gain of 53 votes.

    City of Rockford – they added about 600 votes to their existing totals, Frerichs had a net gain of 231 votes.

    Ogle County – they added 4 votes to their existing totals, Frerichs had a net gain of 2.

    I had heard that Will County was supposed to have some updated numbers, which most likely would have added to Cross’ advantage but they haven’t updated anything yet.

Also here are a few known issues:

    Fulton County – I went to check to see if there was any update and tonight I couldn’t find a link to their totals. Not sure if I am just missing it or what. I swear it was there last night.

    Jersey County – I am still using the AP’s numbers here. The numbers they have listed on their website are so small they can’t be right. The AP’s numbers are consistent with historical norms, the numbers they have listed just seem like there has to be an error. I’ll keep an eye on this.

    Marshall County – their website was down tonight and displaying a server error.

    20 Small Counties – all the data in pink on the tracker is still just what the AP reported for these 20 small counties. Most of them don’t even have a county website so short of calling them all I can’t verify the AP’s reported numbers.

[ *** End Of Updates *** ]

* Meanwhile the Chicago GOP sent out an “emergency” plea for volunteers…

Volunteers,

Tom Cross won the Treasurer’s race Tuesday, but only by a few thousand votes. Now they’re counting absentee and provisional ballots at the Board of Elections, and the Democrats are going to try to make up the difference. We need volunteers to ensure that the votes get counted correctly.

Please show up at the Chicago Board of Elections tomorrow. The work starts at 8:00 am, but any time you can give during the day will help.

Chicago Board of Elections
69 W Washington
Contact: Caitlin Huxley
Phone: 312.841.0172 or Caitlin.Huxley@ChicagoGOP.com

The job is very simple, and very important: watch the ballot process to make sure everything is above board.

Don’t let the Democrats take this one away.

Chris Cleveland

* From Team Frerichs…

Thanks to all of you, our race is extremely close and could go either way. While the Cross campaign has indicated that they believe there are only 17,000 ballots still to be counted as of Wednesday morning, by everyone else’s count, election authorities are still counting tens of thousands of ballots across the state.

Many of those ballots come from seniors and military personnel serving overseas, as well as the provisional ballots cast on Election Day by people who unfortunately waited as long as nine hours to vote.

We, like most people, believe those votes should be counted. The race is extremely close right now and could go either way, and the campaign is waiting for all the votes to be counted.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

62 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 7:55 pm:

    Closest race of the Statewides.

    I will be watching, still super-interesting


  2. - Cadillac - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 8:12 pm:

    24,000 left to be counted? Then why has PQ conceded? No respect…. /s


  3. - Illinoise - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 8:26 pm:

    Cadillac, Quinn said he was waiting for everyone to vote before conceding. Not for all votes to be counted. Arithmetic suggests uncounted ballots would not close the deficit, unlike in the Treasurers race.


  4. - Cadillac - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 8:33 pm:

    Illinoise - you could not be more wrong, even if you tried. You might want to watch this:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/chi-illinois-governor-quinn-theres-a-lot-of-votes-still-to-be-counted-20141105-embeddedvideo.html


  5. - Percival - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 8:38 pm:

    If Cross doesn’t have a team of lawyers standing there watching he is crazy.


  6. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 8:56 pm:

    === and the Democrats are going to try to make up the difference. We need volunteers to ensure that the votes get counted correctly. ===

    === The job is very simple, and very important: watch the ballot process to make sure everything is above board. ===

    === Don’t let the Democrats take this one away. ===

    Gee, Rich, who could have ever foreseen the Republicans trying to undermine the credibility of the election process?

    Perhaps Chris Cleveland can tell us who was responsible for the robocalls intended to shut down the polls in Chicago.


  7. - DuPage - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:04 pm:

    How close would it have to be for a required re-count?


  8. - Martin S. McFly Sr. - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:09 pm:

    24,000 votes or 24,000 ballots? Not everyone that turned in a ballot voted in the treasurer race.


  9. - Martin S. McFly Sr. - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:10 pm:

    ==How close would it have to be for a required re-count?===

    According to Roll Call: “The discovery recount only involves 25 percent of the precincts and is non-binding, meaning the result will not officially change if the recount shows the losing candidate actually won. The only avenue to change a result is by filing an election contest through the court system. The discovery recount results can be used as evidence in the case. The candidate who requests a discovery recount pays a fee of $10 per precinct.”


  10. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:13 pm:

    “Scratch Pad Dopiness”

    24k

    75-25 Frerichs/Cross

    18k -6k = 12K Frerichs

    13,202 - 12k = Cross by 1,100

    24k

    80-20 Frerichs/Cross

    19K - 5K = 14K Frerichs

    14K - 13,202 = Frerichs by 700

    Yikes. Close.


  11. - Almost the Weekend - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:24 pm:

    OW @ 9:13 PM

    According to Chicago State Board of Elections Cross is only getting 19.47% in the city and Frerichs is getting 76.75%. Forgot about the libertarian candidate.

    http://www.chicagoelections.com/en/wdlevel3.asp?elec_code=11

    If those numbers hold with 24,000 ballots left Frerichs wins in a nail biter.

    Funny how the lib candidate was being talked up in the governor’s race, but could determine the treasurer’s race.


  12. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:32 pm:

    - ATW -,

    No worries, I was showing the “swing”, not guessing the outcome.

    Way too close, but it was easily seen as the most competitive.

    It will be a handful that wins this.


  13. - Stan - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:51 pm:

    I bet there are other counties that have outstanding ballots besides cook. It ain’t going to be all bad for Cross.


  14. - DuPage Bard - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:55 pm:

    Pretty devastating to Cross if he loses. Republican “wave” year- new Governor, new Congressmen, Topinka retains, former GOP leader with all the name ID you could ever want as a Republican and he can’t pull off a Treasurer’s race? yikes.


  15. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 9:57 pm:

    I really couldn’t have envisioned a scenario where Bruce Rauner and Mike Frerichs both win. This has to be pushing the limits of electoral reality.


  16. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 10:03 pm:

    I think they should settle this on the basketball court. One on one, first one to 20 wins. Who’s with me?


  17. - Mike - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 10:17 pm:

    I think Frerichs’s cute ads may put him over the top.


  18. - Justin - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 10:23 pm:

    Surely hope Frerichs ekes one out. If he wins, it would a big bright spot for the Dems here in an otherwise largely crappy election cycle for us.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 10:37 pm:

    ===Surely hope Frerichs ekes one out. If he wins, it would a big bright spot for the Dems here in an otherwise largely crappy election cycle for us===

    Lisa, Jesse…veto-proof GA retained.

    Those aren’t bright spots?


  20. - modest proposal - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 10:38 pm:

    I can’t help to put a height reference in the comments…

    “It’s not about the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog.”

    On a serious note. Frerich’s was surging on election day, hopefully cross can pull it out. Is there any indication to the amount of downstate ballots are left uncounted?


  21. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 10:59 pm:

    - 47th Ward -,

    I’m in. Winner gets the office, loser gets cannoli from
    Pastry Sponsor(?)


  22. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:05 pm:

    47, that’s pretty good.


  23. - Been There - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:08 pm:

    ===- 47th Ward -,
    I’m in. Winner gets the office, loser gets cannoli from
    Pastry Sponsor(?) ===

    OW, I would have thought you would want to change the duel to a round of golf. Especially if you are betting for cannoli.


  24. - Been There - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:11 pm:

    Where did those supposed integrity teams go around the state for the GOP and challenge voters? Where ever there are a lot of provisional ballots in limbo is where Frerichs should be sending attorneys.


  25. - walker - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:11 pm:

    But how many outside Chicago still uncounted?


  26. - Marty Funkhouser - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:19 pm:

    Ducky, isn’t the electoral reality basically that the fundamentals of this state are Democratic and that everything has to go right for a Republican to win any statewide race?


  27. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:20 pm:

    - Been There -,

    I would, maybe a biathlon, with basketball and golf, but it’s - 47th Ward -’s bit, don’t want to glom


  28. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:30 pm:

    @MF

    I wouldn’t necessarily agree. Rauner ran a campaign that had quite a few issues. Frerichs ran a campaign with quite a few issues. Tom Cross ran a relatively good campaign. I thought Ds would be Ds, but apparently the unpopularity of Quinn drove a very small, yet very significant portion of them to Rauner without much crossover effect for any other Republican.


  29. - G'Kar - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:37 pm:

    I live in Marshall County. I am not the least bit surprised that their server is down.


  30. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:38 pm:

    ===But how many outside Chicago still uncounted?===

    The new intern is calling all 20 “small counties” in the morning, plus three big counties that haven’t updated.


  31. - btowntruth - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:40 pm:

    Jersey County results for Treasurer:
    Tom Cross - 1309
    Michael W. Frerichs - 891
    Matthew Skopek - 72


  32. - btowntruth - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:43 pm:

    Fulton County results for Treasurer:
    MICHAEL W. FRERICHS 5431
    TOM CROSS 4855
    MATTHEW SKOPEK 580


  33. - Illinois Election Data - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:54 pm:

    Thanks btowntruth for those Fulton numbers.

    Here’s the problem with the Jersey numbers, here’s what they were in 2010:
    Quinn: 2,509
    Brady: 4,724
    Cohen: 205
    Whitney: 158
    Green: 68

    That’s 7,664 total votes.

    The AP’s total for Jersey on election night this year was 7,719 total votes. What you listed shows 2,272 total votes. That just can’t be right.


  34. - btowntruth - Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 11:58 pm:

    Marshall County results for Treasurer from the Lasalle News-Tribune website:

    Tom Cross 6,953
    Michael Frerichs 4,569
    Matthew Skopek 593


  35. - Cabildero - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:03 am:

    you’re comparing gov numbers in 2010 to treasurer numbers now. 2 totally different races. maybe a lot of them just not voting in that race.


  36. - Illinois Election Data - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:06 am:

    Those Marshall numbers can’t be right, that’s way too high. There should be approx 4K total votes in that county, those numbers are for about 12K total votes.

    By the way if you want to see the individual election authority totals in the tracker you can scroll to the bottom here.


  37. - btowntruth - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:09 am:

    http://jerseycountyclerk-il.com/NGE14/

    I got the numbers from the Jersey County Clerks website.
    You are right,that is a BIG difference in numbers between 2010 and 2014.


  38. - Illinois Election Data - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:11 am:

    Ok Cabildero which of these strategies do you recommend:

    a) assume that 70% of the voters in Jersey County undervoted the Treasurer’s race?

    or

    b) notice that these numbers look very unexpected, make a point of warning people of that, use the AP’s numbers from election night that are very similar to totals that were expected and make a note to follow up and verify the totals?


  39. - btowntruth - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:13 am:

    http://newstrib.com/main.asp?SectionID=2&SubSectionID=27&ArticleID=40165

    This is where I found those numbers for Marshall County.


  40. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:15 am:

    I thought I was going to bed.

    I think it is pretty clear Tom Cross exuded a bit too much confidence in the outcome of this race.

    There are a lot of factors here. Frerichs is running independent of Quinn. Cross is below the magic 20 percent in the city. And one would think that mail in ballots and provisional ballots will tend to lean more Democratic than traditional Election Day voters.

    I find the tone of the Republicans pretty appalling, and they would be advised to tone it down. Governor-elect Rauner is calling for bipartisanship, while the party is ginning up anti-Democratic rhetoric? Have you all forgotten there is a pending criminal investigation into efforts to suppress Chicagoans’ right to vote?

    Calm down, count the votes.


  41. - Illinois Election Data - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:20 am:

    Thanks btowntruth, I used these numbers in the tracker so far (from the AP, via the Sun-Times) they’re pretty consistent with the historical norm, total to 4,076 votes. Also I’m pretty sure the Marshall county website was working fine last night when I verified them the first time so I’m not really expecting them to change. Very few of the smaller counties have had data that is different from yesterday.


  42. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:24 am:

    The numbers for the individual precincts appear correct for Jersey County, but they aren’t all feeding into the countywide figures, Rich.

    Just have your intern add them up.

    http://jerseycountyclerk-il.us/NGE14/index.htm


  43. - btowntruth - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:24 am:

    You’re right,Scott,I pasted the Bureau County numbers instead of the Marshall County ones.
    Happens when I stay up late LOL.

    Here are the ones reported for Marshall County by the La Salle News-Tribune:

    Tom Cross 2,449
    Michael Frerichs 1,423
    Matthew Skopek 204


  44. - Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:37 am:

    Marty, I don’t buy the “Blue State,” everything thing has to break right for a GOP candidate to win statewide. I think that’s just an excuse for losers who have been outhustled.

    I think Rauner ran a lousy media campaign in the final weeks, but he certainly wasn’t outhustled any time in the last year. Put it all together and it was 40K more than Brady and enough to win.

    The question going forward is if he will be the catalyst for rebuilding a real statewide organization that can be the base to attract the independents who are the deciders.

    The GOP has withered all these years without the jobs and business from the SOS and governor’s offices. You can’t count on the far-right ideologues to actually put in the work to achieve office and, with that, responsibility,

    I


  45. - Lunchbox - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 4:13 am:

    Wow, I bet Team Cross’ fingernails are down to the stubs. Exciting stuff, this could be weeks before its decided after legal challenges.


  46. - A guy - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 7:15 am:

    Still waiting for Dade and Broward….Whoa. I was having a nightmare.


  47. - Illinois Election Data - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 7:19 am:

    The Marshall County servers are back up and their published numbers match the numbers already in the tracker.


  48. - anon - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 7:27 am:

    So Yellow Dog is chastising the R’s to tone it down. Good grief, have some self-awareness.


  49. - Peoria Guy - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 8:11 am:

    ^^^^So Yellow Dog is chastising the R’s to tone it down. Good grief, have some self-awareness.^^^^

    Yeah, no kidding


  50. - Dee Lay - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 8:56 am:

    The Nixon / Cloonen race in the 79th district settles the super majority question in the house, and here we are talking about a treasurer’s race that will have minimal impact on legislation the next two years.

    The 79th isn’t as sexy as statewide, but it has a larger impact!


  51. - Angry Chicagoan - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 8:57 am:

    I am sick and tired of the Republicans’ incendiary, democracy-poisoning language about “taking elections away,” even in Illinois, where, historically speaking, they have some memories of this to feed upon.

    If it was cast by polling close, and if identification checks out, you count it.

    Coming from the party whose operatives robocalled election judges with misinformation, these words ring completely hollow.

    Republicans, you can have conservatism or domination, but not both. I hope you choose wisely.


  52. - Angry Chicagoan - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 9:04 am:

    @Wordslinger, at some level, a challenger has to understand that governing parties lose elections more than challengers win them, especially when the challenger’s own party is as deeply split as the Illinois GOP. For all of Rauner’s faults, I think he displayed evidence of understanding that, and actually played it fairly smartly. He pulled a four point victory out of what was essentially a tie, and at the same time as the legislative Democrats turned out another thumping victory.


  53. - muon - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 9:07 am:

    One interesting quick take away from Kennedy’s waeb site come from comparing Cross-Frerichs to Kirk-Giannoulias. Over all Cross is at 48.09% which is virtually the same as Kirk’s 48.01%. However Frerichs is more than a point better than Giannoulias 47.76% to 46.42%. The difference is downstate where Frerichs is running almost 4 points ahead of Giannoulias. Most of that seems to be coming from the third party vote, not Cross. A simple conclusion would be that it helps the Dems to have a Downstater in a close race.


  54. - Living in Raunerville - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 9:11 am:

    Probably just some kind of glitch but the Tribune’s map with county results show’s Brown County with zero votes for Cross. Didn’t not know Brown County was a bastion of hard D’s.


  55. - Team Sleep - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 9:19 am:

    To quote the venerable Samuel L. Jackson:

    “Hold on to your butts.”


  56. - walker - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    ===”the new intern is calling 20 ’small counties’ in the morning”===

    The new intern got a name?

    Exciting time to join your team.

    Thanks for all the work and updates.


  57. - Joe Blow - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    @Raunerville - That’s a gitch. Brown County will go Cross by a large margin.


  58. - Soccermom - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 10:23 am:

    Just want to say — big love for Scott Kennedy.


  59. - Almost the Weekend - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    Joe Blow and Living in Raunerville

    You guys must be living in Rauner land. Nobody is following the Trib’s numbers anymore. They haven’t been updated in a long time. As Rich said Scott Kennedy’s numbers are by far the most up to date. With votes already counted in Brown County. And you guys are both right. Cross won there by about a 2 to 1 margin. Have a good weekend!


  60. - Mama - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 10:54 am:

    Will any other state races be un-won via the late ballot counts?


  61. - low level - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    Well thank you Chris Cleveland for whatever that was. And by all means, go and observe the counting. My guess is your people will be very bored.

    Whatever anyone wants to believe about Chicago and the smoke filled rooms - goofy nonsense - if you go you will find dedicated professionals doing their jobs counting the votes.

    As Rich likes to say: bite me, Mr. Cleveland.


  62. - Living in Raunerville - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 11:31 am:

    Not seeing many major media sources (cept for BND) talking about Karmier barely hanging on to his ILSC seat. When was the last time a SCJ was not retained?….guessing never.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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