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Poll: Emanuel 42, Garcia 18, Fioretti 10, Wilson 7, Walls 2

Thursday, Jan 29, 2015

* A new Chicago Tribune poll has Mayor Rahm Emanuel leading the pack, but still not avoiding a runoff. But the trend is his friend

In August, a Tribune poll found 46 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Emanuel while just 29 percent viewed him favorably. The new survey shows Emanuel has turned that around, with 43 percent viewing him favorably compared with 35 percent who look at him in an unfavorable light.

Similarly, the August poll found more than half of the city’s voters — 52 percent — disapproved of Emanuel’s job performance compared with 35 percent who approved. Again, the latest poll found Emanuel had recovered some, as voters were split over his stewardship of the city: 44 percent voiced approval and 42 percent disapproval.

The most notable factor in Emanuel’s turnaround is African-American voters’ view of him. Back in August, nearly six in 10 black voters disapproved of Emanuel’s handling of City Hall. Now, that group of voters is split, with 40 percent approving of Emanuel and 42 percent disapproving. Continued street violence and closing of nearly 50 schools, many in predominantly black neighborhoods, had helped drive Emanuel’s unpopularity among some black voters. […]

The latest poll found Emanuel with a sizable lead among black voters, garnering 39 percent, followed by Wilson with 14 percent, Garcia with 10 percent, Fioretti with 7 percent and Walls with 2 percent. Wilson and Walls are the two African-American candidates in the race.

* Related…

* Emanuel expands fundraising lead

* Sneed exclusive: Rahm endorsed by 15 labor unions

- Posted by Rich Miller        

36 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 9:53 am:

    Call the White House and request a visit from the home town hero and a weekend stay.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 9:54 am:

    If the goal is to keep Rahm below 50% to get into a runoff AND be that #2 to get Rahm one-on-one, than this could make you optimistic.

    I’m still not sold Rahm gets below 50%, today, looking ahead to February.

    The others have their work cut out for them in the home stretch of “Round 1″ to secure a “Round 2″


  3. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 9:57 am:

    Gonna be real close on getting 50% it appears. Give him 40% of the undecideds and he just barely gets there.


  4. - Under Further Review - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:00 am:

    It would be great to see Rahm sing “Can’t Buy Me Love.”


  5. - Chris - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:00 am:

    In August, everyone was comparing him to their personal (imaginary) dream Mayor.

    Now they’re forced to compare him to the guys who actually want the job.

    Rahm looks bad next to a Philosopher King (and a different one for every person polled), but pretty good in the center of the “Five Dwarfs” panel at the Trib.

    What I think will be interesting is whether or not Karen Lewis (back to work today) gets active in support of Chuy.


  6. - A guy - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:01 am:

    Rahm’s at T-8 with this poll. I suspect he’s a point or two higher. Either way, he’s got a roadmap of where to get those 8 points now. 2 from Chuy, 5 from Fioretti, and 2 from Wilson (thanks Pres. Obama). Walls will sustain his towering 2%. Anyone who’d admit they are voting for him are likely to stay in that weird cyclone.


  7. - A guy - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:02 am:

    Not to mention a cushion of undecideds who will break late for Rahm.


  8. - Soccermom - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:13 am:

    Data.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/09/no-undecided-voters-dont-break-for-the-challenger/


  9. - Carhart Representative - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:15 am:

    I think Rauner’s anti-labor moves may be just the thing to get organized labor to break hard towards Garcia. My prediction for the election is Emanuel 44%, Garcia 28%, Fioretti 13%, Wilson 12%, Walls 2%


  10. - Carhart Representative - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:18 am:

    Soccermom, great point, but that’s national. Local can be a different animal. There have been some mayoral elections this past year where the challenger really shocked the pollsters.


  11. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:26 am:

    Meh. Whether it goes to a runoff or not, Rahm will still be the mayor, I do believe.


  12. - Chris - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:35 am:

    “There have been some mayoral elections this past year where the challenger really shocked the pollsters.”

    Examples??


  13. - MrGrassroots - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:37 am:

    Mayor Emanuel cannot afford a runoff. If voters get to know Chuy better and get re-introduced to Mayor Emanuel, that spells big trouble. at that point, the money is meaningless. It looks to be close indeed. I am so glad I don’t have a dog in this race.


  14. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:51 am:

    I believe Rahm was in the 40s at this time last election and people wondered whether he’d avoid a runoff.

    Remember he also has a ground game that helps him do better than poll numbers.


  15. - Nick Naylor - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:02 am:

    =I think Rauner’s anti-labor moves may be just the thing to get organized labor to break hard towards Garcia=

    Based on media reports today, with the exception of SEIU Local 1 and the CTU, most of the major unions are breaking for Rahm.


  16. - Del Clinkton - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:07 am:

    Why doesnt a rich Catholic school like DePaul ask their own students to pay for a new gym, instead of relying on Welfare to pay for it?

    Ask Rahm this question….


  17. - William j Kelly - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:15 am:

    If the AFL-CIO really wants to stop rauner they need to defeat Rahm, cut off the head and the tail dies.


  18. - 32nd Ward Roscoe Village - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:25 am:

    Starting about 3 weeks ago, I have been receiving a flyer every day or every other day from Rahm campaign that is anti-Chuy Garcia. First few were about Garcia taking illegal property tax exemptions and now it is about him having voted for tax raises in the past and will be pushing for more tax increases if Garcia is elected. No other literature received at our house yet.


  19. - Louis G. Atsaves - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:27 am:

    These poll numbers and others show a basic disconnect between the mayor and Chicago neighborhoods. Yesterday, didn’t he call Ernie Banks “twinkly?” What Chicagoan talks like that? That one was worse than “Ron Santos.”

    He has to connect with those who can vote for him. After four years his numbers should be “twinkly.”


  20. - chi - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:28 am:

    =Why doesnt a rich Catholic school like DePaul ask their own students to pay for a new gym, instead of relying on Welfare to pay for it?=

    It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for DePaul, or anyone, to build an arena solely for DePaul basketball. The arena is only partially for DePaul bball, and is therefore only partially paid for by DePaul. It’s mainly for larger events that can attract big meetings to McCormick Place, concerts, and shows. McCormick Place doesn’t have a space this big. Does anyone really think the arena is just, or even mainly, for DePaul?


  21. - chi - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:33 am:

    =What Chicagoan talks like that?…He has to connect with those who can vote for him.=

    This might be good advice- pretending to be someone your not actually did work for Baron V. Carhartt. There’s a whole bunch of things Rahm can do to make like a regular guy…


  22. - Carhart Representative - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:42 am:

    =This might be good advice- pretending to be someone your not actually did work for Baron V. Carhartt. There’s a whole bunch of things Rahm can do to make like a regular guy…=

    We could sell him a jacket. We carry small sizes.


  23. - T.C. - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:56 am:

    – Del Clinkton — DePaul ain’t Notre Dame…it is not rich. They are actually kicking in a big chunk of the cash for the arena. I think it’s a bad deal for DePaul that will do nothing to improve their basketball program. They’d be better spending that cash on a smaller arena on campus.


  24. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:56 am:

    ==- Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:51 am:==

    Kind of. In mid to late January 2011 Rahm was around here, but he crossed the runoff avoidance threshold (in polls) this week in 2011 (the last full week of the month).

    http://www.chicagomayoralscorecard.com/


  25. - Carhart Representative - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:58 am:

    T.C. Why not just use the United Center rent free until you could build that arena?


  26. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:09 pm:

    DePaul is the beard for the arena. It’s real purpose will be for events tied to that Moby Dick of a casino Emanuel’s chasing.

    If DePaul wanted a more convenient venue for its students to attend basketball games, they would have taken Jerry and Rocky up on their offer for the United Center — rent free.

    And show me the trade shows and conventions that have a 10,000 seat indoor arena in their RFPs. The Las Vegas and Orlando convention authorities don’t have such a facility, but they do have many more nearby entertainment options.

    By the way, Joe Cahill reported costs on the arena have climbed from initial estimates of $140 million to as much as $250 million. DePaul won’t be covering that nut.


  27. - Chris - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:10 pm:

    “he crossed the runoff avoidance threshold (in polls) this week in 2011″

    Not in the Trib poll. As the link shows, as of Feb 10, Trib poll had him at 49, with the other 3 totaling 37.


  28. - ROLLO TOMASI - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:19 pm:

    The whole purpose of the De Paul Arena is to make Rahm’s brother Ari more money. Instead of renting the United Center for 20 dollars a seat for a concert he’ll get the De Paul Arena for 8-10 dollars. But wait because the city is building it city hacks will be employed to run and promote it. Remember that one of the Vanecko’s is the promoter for Lollapalooza. Remember one of the first things Rahm did was not to make that concert pay adjustment taxes his first year in office. A 22% profit for Ari.

    The Trade unions are endorsing Rahm. Why yourself ask? The project is already 75% over budget? How? The trades unions are afraid of Rahm. As they were of Daley. In one word the reason is Privatization! That’s how they keep City Labor in check.

    Why is the project so over budget? It’s the Chicago way. You write the bid proposals so only the firm you want can do the work and they low ball the cost to build the project. But then you put in the bid that any changes to the project are on the City to pay for. Now you change the specs and the project as it is being built and it will cost twice as much as before. The construction company hires friends and relatives of the City’s connected and bundle campaign checks is small denominations for the reelection of Rahm. Look at Maggie Daley Park and the Thorndale bike path which is costing us just under 20 million per mile. (19.88). The US flag should be replaced on every construction crane on a government project with a white flag of surrender.


  29. - ROLLO TOMASI - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:21 pm:

    Adjustment tax should be amusement tax


  30. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:26 pm:

    ===Jerry and Rocky up on their offer for the United Center — rent free.===

    Wordslinger, please tell me you’re not really that gullible to believe the UC was offering anything for free.


  31. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:42 pm:

    47, that’s how I recall it was reported. Not so?


  32. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:50 pm:

    47, I would add I find it easy to understand why Reinsdorf and Wirtz would offer something of value to try and head off the construction of an entertainment venue that will compete with the United Center for profitable events.


  33. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:55 pm:

    The way I heard it Word, DePaul would have been better off financially staying in Rosemont than using the “free” United Center.

    But yeah, I understand why two guys who get boatloads of taxpayer hand-outs for their sports palaces don’t want anyone else getting tax money. And it’s not like a 10,000 seat arena is going to steal any business from the UC.

    Don’t believe everything you read in the newspapers.


  34. - William j Kelly - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:57 pm:

    The unions that are supporting Rahm need new leaders ASAP! If your ‘leaders’ are rahmner lovers, ask them why and then tell them to where they can go!


  35. - From the 'Dale to HP - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 1:22 pm:

    Can’t compare this to 2011, Rahm’s negatives were above 50%, which they are now. People might be surprised by how many alderman are quietly running against Rahm.

    Chuy’s running out of time to make this a race. Gotta get some excitement going.

    If this gets to a run off, agree with MrGrassroots, all bets are off. Rahm knows this. That’s why he’s all in right now. Chuy can’t cross his fingers and hope to get to the run off.


  36. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 4:27 pm:

    ==- Chris - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:10 pm:==

    3 out of the final 4 polls Emanuel was at 52+.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Tuesday
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Tribune asked 16 mayoral candidates to release tax returns, 6 complied
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* *** UPDATED x3 - Morrison wants emergency meeting of ILGOP - McConnaughay explains - Schneider responds *** Rauner says he tried to drop out of race after primary
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* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

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