Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Poll: Emanuel 42, Garcia 18, Fioretti 10, Wilson 7, Walls 2
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Emanuel 42, Garcia 18, Fioretti 10, Wilson 7, Walls 2

Thursday, Jan 29, 2015

* A new Chicago Tribune poll has Mayor Rahm Emanuel leading the pack, but still not avoiding a runoff. But the trend is his friend

In August, a Tribune poll found 46 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Emanuel while just 29 percent viewed him favorably. The new survey shows Emanuel has turned that around, with 43 percent viewing him favorably compared with 35 percent who look at him in an unfavorable light.

Similarly, the August poll found more than half of the city’s voters — 52 percent — disapproved of Emanuel’s job performance compared with 35 percent who approved. Again, the latest poll found Emanuel had recovered some, as voters were split over his stewardship of the city: 44 percent voiced approval and 42 percent disapproval.

The most notable factor in Emanuel’s turnaround is African-American voters’ view of him. Back in August, nearly six in 10 black voters disapproved of Emanuel’s handling of City Hall. Now, that group of voters is split, with 40 percent approving of Emanuel and 42 percent disapproving. Continued street violence and closing of nearly 50 schools, many in predominantly black neighborhoods, had helped drive Emanuel’s unpopularity among some black voters. […]

The latest poll found Emanuel with a sizable lead among black voters, garnering 39 percent, followed by Wilson with 14 percent, Garcia with 10 percent, Fioretti with 7 percent and Walls with 2 percent. Wilson and Walls are the two African-American candidates in the race.

* Related…

* Emanuel expands fundraising lead

* Sneed exclusive: Rahm endorsed by 15 labor unions

- Posted by Rich Miller        

36 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 9:53 am:

    Call the White House and request a visit from the home town hero and a weekend stay.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 9:54 am:

    If the goal is to keep Rahm below 50% to get into a runoff AND be that #2 to get Rahm one-on-one, than this could make you optimistic.

    I’m still not sold Rahm gets below 50%, today, looking ahead to February.

    The others have their work cut out for them in the home stretch of “Round 1″ to secure a “Round 2″


  3. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 9:57 am:

    Gonna be real close on getting 50% it appears. Give him 40% of the undecideds and he just barely gets there.


  4. - Under Further Review - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:00 am:

    It would be great to see Rahm sing “Can’t Buy Me Love.”


  5. - Chris - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:00 am:

    In August, everyone was comparing him to their personal (imaginary) dream Mayor.

    Now they’re forced to compare him to the guys who actually want the job.

    Rahm looks bad next to a Philosopher King (and a different one for every person polled), but pretty good in the center of the “Five Dwarfs” panel at the Trib.

    What I think will be interesting is whether or not Karen Lewis (back to work today) gets active in support of Chuy.


  6. - A guy - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:01 am:

    Rahm’s at T-8 with this poll. I suspect he’s a point or two higher. Either way, he’s got a roadmap of where to get those 8 points now. 2 from Chuy, 5 from Fioretti, and 2 from Wilson (thanks Pres. Obama). Walls will sustain his towering 2%. Anyone who’d admit they are voting for him are likely to stay in that weird cyclone.


  7. - A guy - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:02 am:

    Not to mention a cushion of undecideds who will break late for Rahm.


  8. - Soccermom - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:13 am:

    Data.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/09/no-undecided-voters-dont-break-for-the-challenger/


  9. - Carhart Representative - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:15 am:

    I think Rauner’s anti-labor moves may be just the thing to get organized labor to break hard towards Garcia. My prediction for the election is Emanuel 44%, Garcia 28%, Fioretti 13%, Wilson 12%, Walls 2%


  10. - Carhart Representative - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:18 am:

    Soccermom, great point, but that’s national. Local can be a different animal. There have been some mayoral elections this past year where the challenger really shocked the pollsters.


  11. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:26 am:

    Meh. Whether it goes to a runoff or not, Rahm will still be the mayor, I do believe.


  12. - Chris - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:35 am:

    “There have been some mayoral elections this past year where the challenger really shocked the pollsters.”

    Examples??


  13. - MrGrassroots - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:37 am:

    Mayor Emanuel cannot afford a runoff. If voters get to know Chuy better and get re-introduced to Mayor Emanuel, that spells big trouble. at that point, the money is meaningless. It looks to be close indeed. I am so glad I don’t have a dog in this race.


  14. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:51 am:

    I believe Rahm was in the 40s at this time last election and people wondered whether he’d avoid a runoff.

    Remember he also has a ground game that helps him do better than poll numbers.


  15. - Nick Naylor - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:02 am:

    =I think Rauner’s anti-labor moves may be just the thing to get organized labor to break hard towards Garcia=

    Based on media reports today, with the exception of SEIU Local 1 and the CTU, most of the major unions are breaking for Rahm.


  16. - Del Clinkton - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:07 am:

    Why doesnt a rich Catholic school like DePaul ask their own students to pay for a new gym, instead of relying on Welfare to pay for it?

    Ask Rahm this question….


  17. - William j Kelly - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:15 am:

    If the AFL-CIO really wants to stop rauner they need to defeat Rahm, cut off the head and the tail dies.


  18. - 32nd Ward Roscoe Village - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:25 am:

    Starting about 3 weeks ago, I have been receiving a flyer every day or every other day from Rahm campaign that is anti-Chuy Garcia. First few were about Garcia taking illegal property tax exemptions and now it is about him having voted for tax raises in the past and will be pushing for more tax increases if Garcia is elected. No other literature received at our house yet.


  19. - Louis G. Atsaves - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:27 am:

    These poll numbers and others show a basic disconnect between the mayor and Chicago neighborhoods. Yesterday, didn’t he call Ernie Banks “twinkly?” What Chicagoan talks like that? That one was worse than “Ron Santos.”

    He has to connect with those who can vote for him. After four years his numbers should be “twinkly.”


  20. - chi - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:28 am:

    =Why doesnt a rich Catholic school like DePaul ask their own students to pay for a new gym, instead of relying on Welfare to pay for it?=

    It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for DePaul, or anyone, to build an arena solely for DePaul basketball. The arena is only partially for DePaul bball, and is therefore only partially paid for by DePaul. It’s mainly for larger events that can attract big meetings to McCormick Place, concerts, and shows. McCormick Place doesn’t have a space this big. Does anyone really think the arena is just, or even mainly, for DePaul?


  21. - chi - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:33 am:

    =What Chicagoan talks like that?…He has to connect with those who can vote for him.=

    This might be good advice- pretending to be someone your not actually did work for Baron V. Carhartt. There’s a whole bunch of things Rahm can do to make like a regular guy…


  22. - Carhart Representative - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:42 am:

    =This might be good advice- pretending to be someone your not actually did work for Baron V. Carhartt. There’s a whole bunch of things Rahm can do to make like a regular guy…=

    We could sell him a jacket. We carry small sizes.


  23. - T.C. - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:56 am:

    – Del Clinkton — DePaul ain’t Notre Dame…it is not rich. They are actually kicking in a big chunk of the cash for the arena. I think it’s a bad deal for DePaul that will do nothing to improve their basketball program. They’d be better spending that cash on a smaller arena on campus.


  24. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:56 am:

    ==- Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 10:51 am:==

    Kind of. In mid to late January 2011 Rahm was around here, but he crossed the runoff avoidance threshold (in polls) this week in 2011 (the last full week of the month).

    http://www.chicagomayoralscorecard.com/


  25. - Carhart Representative - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 11:58 am:

    T.C. Why not just use the United Center rent free until you could build that arena?


  26. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:09 pm:

    DePaul is the beard for the arena. It’s real purpose will be for events tied to that Moby Dick of a casino Emanuel’s chasing.

    If DePaul wanted a more convenient venue for its students to attend basketball games, they would have taken Jerry and Rocky up on their offer for the United Center — rent free.

    And show me the trade shows and conventions that have a 10,000 seat indoor arena in their RFPs. The Las Vegas and Orlando convention authorities don’t have such a facility, but they do have many more nearby entertainment options.

    By the way, Joe Cahill reported costs on the arena have climbed from initial estimates of $140 million to as much as $250 million. DePaul won’t be covering that nut.


  27. - Chris - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:10 pm:

    “he crossed the runoff avoidance threshold (in polls) this week in 2011″

    Not in the Trib poll. As the link shows, as of Feb 10, Trib poll had him at 49, with the other 3 totaling 37.


  28. - ROLLO TOMASI - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:19 pm:

    The whole purpose of the De Paul Arena is to make Rahm’s brother Ari more money. Instead of renting the United Center for 20 dollars a seat for a concert he’ll get the De Paul Arena for 8-10 dollars. But wait because the city is building it city hacks will be employed to run and promote it. Remember that one of the Vanecko’s is the promoter for Lollapalooza. Remember one of the first things Rahm did was not to make that concert pay adjustment taxes his first year in office. A 22% profit for Ari.

    The Trade unions are endorsing Rahm. Why yourself ask? The project is already 75% over budget? How? The trades unions are afraid of Rahm. As they were of Daley. In one word the reason is Privatization! That’s how they keep City Labor in check.

    Why is the project so over budget? It’s the Chicago way. You write the bid proposals so only the firm you want can do the work and they low ball the cost to build the project. But then you put in the bid that any changes to the project are on the City to pay for. Now you change the specs and the project as it is being built and it will cost twice as much as before. The construction company hires friends and relatives of the City’s connected and bundle campaign checks is small denominations for the reelection of Rahm. Look at Maggie Daley Park and the Thorndale bike path which is costing us just under 20 million per mile. (19.88). The US flag should be replaced on every construction crane on a government project with a white flag of surrender.


  29. - ROLLO TOMASI - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:21 pm:

    Adjustment tax should be amusement tax


  30. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:26 pm:

    ===Jerry and Rocky up on their offer for the United Center — rent free.===

    Wordslinger, please tell me you’re not really that gullible to believe the UC was offering anything for free.


  31. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:42 pm:

    47, that’s how I recall it was reported. Not so?


  32. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:50 pm:

    47, I would add I find it easy to understand why Reinsdorf and Wirtz would offer something of value to try and head off the construction of an entertainment venue that will compete with the United Center for profitable events.


  33. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:55 pm:

    The way I heard it Word, DePaul would have been better off financially staying in Rosemont than using the “free” United Center.

    But yeah, I understand why two guys who get boatloads of taxpayer hand-outs for their sports palaces don’t want anyone else getting tax money. And it’s not like a 10,000 seat arena is going to steal any business from the UC.

    Don’t believe everything you read in the newspapers.


  34. - William j Kelly - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:57 pm:

    The unions that are supporting Rahm need new leaders ASAP! If your ‘leaders’ are rahmner lovers, ask them why and then tell them to where they can go!


  35. - From the 'Dale to HP - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 1:22 pm:

    Can’t compare this to 2011, Rahm’s negatives were above 50%, which they are now. People might be surprised by how many alderman are quietly running against Rahm.

    Chuy’s running out of time to make this a race. Gotta get some excitement going.

    If this gets to a run off, agree with MrGrassroots, all bets are off. Rahm knows this. That’s why he’s all in right now. Chuy can’t cross his fingers and hope to get to the run off.


  36. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 4:27 pm:

    ==- Chris - Thursday, Jan 29, 15 @ 12:10 pm:==

    3 out of the final 4 polls Emanuel was at 52+.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Brady makes some unusual appointments to discrimination and harassment task force
* Pritzker sues endorser, deletes ad she appeared in
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Candidate announcement
* Best tweet of the day
* Question of the day
* Roskam race moved to "Toss Up" by Cook Political Report
* Kennedy lashes out at Emanuel, while Pritzker takes a softer approach
* Rauner refuses to weigh in on federal tax legislation
* Reports: Former Munger firm gets $12.5 million no-bid contract after a $12 million payment was frozen by Mendoza
* "Every time I see a little kid waving I always try to wave back"
* Londrigan, EMILY's List stand by their false statements
* In praise of Mary Ann Ahern
* George Will: Illinois "approaching a death spiral"
* Rauner urged to sign education funding "cleanup" bill
* Republican Party wants Durbin, Duckworth to give away Franken's cash
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Open thread
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* George Will: In Illinois, a looming battle over.....
* George Will: In Illinois, looming battle over b.....
* SNEED EXCLUSIVE: Amazon reps visit old Finkl St.....
* House task force to review sexual harassment..
* Kennedy lands endorsement from Danny K. Davis..
* Keep an eye on Illinois, a blue-state basket ca.....
* In Illinois, a looming battle over the bankrupt.....


* Police dog to regularly search public schools in Springfield
* U of I student has been named a Rhodes Scholar
* Backers hope Route 66 historic designation can drive tourism
* Lurie recognized for approach to managing pain in children
* Decatur Police investigate shooting death
* Illinois man's memory to live on with Rose Parade float
* Father, son travel around the US repairing handbells
* 80 percent of debris dump sites high in toxins
* AP Exclusive: 4 in 5 Illinois debris sites high in toxins
* AP Exclusive: 4 in 5 Illinois debris sites high in toxins

* House task force to review sexual harassment
* Electric cars, better fuel efficiency spell doom for Illinois gas tax
* Springfield wants out of legislation limiting payments for 5G antennas
* Fact check: Are Gov. Rauner's grandparents immigrants?
* Londrigan accused of attacking Davis for 'opposite' of remarks
* Gov. Rauner signs sex harassment legislation
* Under the Dome Podcast: Governor's race, sexual harassment, Rodney Davis
* Macoupin Co. highway renamed in honor of soldier who died in Vietnam
* Macoupin Co. highway renamed in honor of solder who died in Vietnam
* Schoenburg: Rep. Davis leads new caucus, pleased with White House access

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* Here's how Baker McKenzie profits from offshore tax system
* Cards Against Humanity works to maintain its naughtiness
* The either/or world of Cards Against Humanity: Funny or Die
* Why do people give? Not for the tax break.


* 10-year-old boy and girl, 13, missing from same block in Lake View
* Body of canoeist recovered from Indiana lake 3 weeks after capsizing
* Official says Trump doesn’t know whom to believe about Roy Moore
* Paul Zipser has gone from last season surprise to this season MIA
* Man wounded in Marquette Park drive-by shooting
* Man, 39, reported missing from Uptown
* Three-and-out: On Adam Shaheen’s growth, Connor Barth’s Bears future
* Mitch Trubisky offers hope in John Fox’s play-it-safe world
* SNEED EXCLUSIVE: Amazon reps visit old Finkl Steel site on North Side
* MORRISSEY: Attendance is optional for Bears, fans in loss to Lions


* Victim airlifted to hospital following 'cooking accident' in Crystal Lake
* Leonard Floyd feared out for extended period with knee injury
* Suns lead Bulls 61-56 at halftime of battle of rebuilding teams
* Chicago intends to sue U.S. Steel after 2 toxic spills this year, mayor says
* Kicked when they’re down, Bears long on excuses, short on progress
* Stepson, 21, charged with repeatedly stabbing CPD officer, prosecutors say
* 'Lulls,' 'siestas' doom Bears against Lions in latest close loss
* Boy 14, among 6 shot including one fatally on Sunday
* Many Christian conservatives are backing Alabama's Roy Moore
* As clock ticks on tax bill, White House signals a compromise


» State Week: Are Voters Thinking About 2018?
» Legislative Checklist: Veto Session
» How 3 Women Want To Make Illinois’ Political Future Female
» Illinois Supreme Court Weighing Seizure Of Woman’s Harley
» Illinois Supreme Court Weighing Seizure Of Woman's Harley
» Statehouse Ethical Issues Might Need Outside Oversight, Legislators Say
» Prosecutor: No More Indictments In Laquan McDonald Shooting
» Metra Board OKs Budget With Service Cuts, Fare Hikes In 2018
» For Illinois Sex Offenders, Six Years Can Turn Into Life In Prison
» State Week: Harassment Training, Veto Wins And Losses, Late Payments


* Rex Huppke: Moment of reckoning for swinish behavior is here
* George Will: In Illinois, a looming battle over the bankrupting 'blue model'
* House task force to review sexual harassment
* Bernard Schoenburg: Ives says Rauner joined 'ruling class' he was to fight
* Statehouse Insider: Republican primary for governor underway
* Doubek: For harassment and beyond, Springfield needs stronger accountability
* Jim Dixon: It is time for a fair tax for Illinois
* Our View: It’s time for decision on YWCA block
* Electric cars, better fuel efficiency spell doom for Illinois gas tax
* Ed Rogers: A Clinton special counsel won't help Republicans in 2018


* Underwood: 'Excited for our growth today'
* Nichols: 'Got to play 40 minutes of basketball'
* UI Men's Basketball vs Marshall
* Alive and helping to brighten Thanksgiving for others
* LIVE! Marshall
* UI student has been named a Rhodes Scholar
* A listing of fundraising events in central Illinois
* Help your neighbors in need by donating items
* Second person charged with striking 8-year-old girl with extension cord
* Second man charged with double East St. Louis shooting that left one dead


* Images: Bears lose to Lions 27-24
* Chicago Bears coach Fox on Barth's missed FG: 'We will evaluate it'
* The Latest: Trump tweets about death of Border Patrol agent
* Clarkson, Pink honor victims of hurricanes, violence at AMAs
* One killed in Bensenville apartment fire

* Geneva Chamber honors Gaines for 40 years ...
* DOJ to ban US lawmakers should Duterte ord...
* US lawmakers to Duterte: 'Sovereignty does...
* Local Congressmen React to the Passage of ...
* Hultgren whishes McHenry County College a ...
* Hultgren and Ruppersberger: Protect infras...
* US lawmakers urge Trump to prod Rody on dr...
* This RSS feed URL is deprecated
* Rep. Randy Hultgren congratulates McHenry ...
* 3 suburban GOP reps provide crucial votes ...

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...

* I’m voting against Joe Berrios, but I don’t know why I should have to.
* Show some gratitude, people.
* Youth Open Mic Night on Friday, December 1st
* Chicago high school students salute Harold Washington as his hearse passes. December, 1987.
* Sunday week in review.
* Dollar Tree Coming To Former Unique Thrift Store Location?
* All Aboard! Open House Sunday Afternoon At Uptown's Model Railroad Club
* Meet Your 20th District Officers On Argyle in Sunday/Monday Events
* Believe women.
* SNL Watch Party at SMG-Chatham


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Qualcomm takeover of NXP to be approved by Japan, EU
* Best Buy takes 75 percent off LG G6 on Sprint
* Android Oreo and OxygenOS 5.0 finally pushed to OnePlus 3, 3T
* Amazon takes $100 off Moto X4 Prime Exclusive edition
* Sprint Black Friday deals now include Essential Phone for $145
* Razer’s Hammerhead earphones pack USB-C connectivity to replace your headphone port
* Authorities serve Apple a warrant for Texas shooter’s iPhone

* White Sox Arizona Fall League recap
* Sporcle Saturday: Top player performances
* LIVE: MLB Awards unveiled on Network
* White Sox face roster call on Clarkin, 6 more
* Thyago Vieira brings missing heat to White Sox bullpen battle
* MLB Awards grand finale (7 CT, MLB Network)
* White Sox trade for hard-throwing Vieira


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller