42 Comments - VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 9:42 am: The Mayor hasn’t generated much love, has he? - flea - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 9:44 am: Love? He will win. - Bogey Golfer - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 9:49 am: Did Daley have any real competition in ‘03 and ‘07? That would explain the low turnouts in those years? But with 5 candidates to have similar a number… Emanuel doesn’t have the org that Daley did in the neighborhoods. - Independent - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 9:55 am: The remnants of the machine are sputtering. When a Mell is forced into a runoff and a Daley is unable to dominate the 11th things have changed. One of the few constants is Ed Burke’s total domination of the 14th. That may be the last thing to change. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:02 am: Obviously, despite his high negatives, Emanuel has many more paths to 50 percent plus one than Garcia. By my calculations, 45 percent is much more than 34 percent. Garcia will either have to run the table or greatly expand turnout among potential supporters, both heavy lifts. Curiously, the Tribune’s man of the people Kass saw Tuesday’s results as the “mean little man” taking “a whipping” and being “spanked” by Garcia. Maybe he just dug the mental imagery. Doesn’t have a basis in reality. - A guy - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:02 am: It’s instructive. Given an AA choice in many AA wards, many AA chose the AA candidate(s). That’s where the effort will go and that’s where the difference will come from. I don’t see a plethora of non-primary voters jumping in that will mitigate the numbers of people dropping out because their guy is no longer in the running. One guy needs 5% + 1 more. The other needs 16% + 1. That’s a steep hill. Rahm needs to shore up relationships in the AA community. Chuy needs to establish them. My guess is a “humbled” Rahm wins by 10 points. - Stones - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:05 am: Word… True, on paper I’d rather be at 45% than 35% any day heading into a runoff. That being said I think Rahm had the cloak of invincibility about him that has been tarnished. I’ll admit going into this thing months ago I didn’t think Karen Lewis or anyone else had a snowball’s chance against him. Now, like it or not I think he’s seen as beatable…not an easy task by any means but nobody thought Harold Washington had a chance back in the day either. - The Captain - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:13 am: The subset with the most votes that went to candidates not in the runoff were in AA majority wards. In AA majority wards the candidate that received the highest support was Emanuel, and by quite a bit. For Garcia to win in April he has to almost run the table here among Walls/Wilson/Fioretti supporters and I’m not sure the current dynamics lead to that outcome. Maybe the underlying fundamentals of the race change but early voting starts in three and a half weeks (3/23) so the clock is ticking. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:13 am: Stones, if nearly 80 percent of registered voters go to the polls in April, as they did in 1983, Garcia will be elected. As it stands now, he has a puncher’s chance. - Gooner - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:14 am: One thing to keep in mind is that turnout may go up in the wards where there was not a contest for Alderman. A lot of those people didn’t show when it looked like a preliminary race but may well show up in April when it means something. Those wards are 12 (Cardenas), 13 (Quinn, which may not see a great increase due to the Speaker working on turnout this week), 14 (Burke), 28 (Ervin), 30 (Reboyras), 42 (Reilly) and 48 (Osterman). Subjectively, in 42 none of my neighbors were talking about the race. That likely will change in April, particularly if the Mayor goes strongly negative. They need a reason to turn out and nobody gave them one this time. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:15 am: I would bet Rahm as an 80/20 favorite. Possible to beat, but not probable. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:34 am: Garcia is winning the emotion, and the heart of the election. Now he needs to win over the logic, and the brain of it. The Mayor is confronted with the opposite of this. Garcia is on the rise, and the Mayor is on the defensive. So, Garcia can build from his win by showing that he can be a power player among the business power players in Chicago. The win will be if Garcia can convince undecided voters that he won’t destabilize the City. He needs to be seen being comfortable with the Powers that Be. The only reason Daley and Emanuel had been elected was by appearing as the last sane Democratic leader in Chicago. There has been no love for either man. They were default choices, bulwarks against chaos. Garcia needs to appeal to the logical brains of those City leaders afraid of Chicago’s future more than they are afraid of having an disliked Mayor splitting it’s citizens. Emanuel sucks to a lot of Chicagoans, but if he appears to be the only candidate that can keep the City in one piece, he will be reelected. Garcia needs to show that he can keep the City stable, as well as show that the City can move in a new direction that will make more Chicagoans happy. Washington won in a split election by appearing to populist emotions. Garcia can’t repeat that since it is just between him and Emanuel. The middle ground for Garcia is that concerned Chicagoan afraid of change. Whoever wins those voters, wins in April. - IrishPirate - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:35 am: Independent, Ed Burke may dominate the 14th, but he only turned out 5900 votes. 19th ward was nearly 19,000 total. Garcia got 52 percent in the 14th. Generally the wards that turn out big numbers in elections are the white wards on the SW and NW sides, the downtown wards and north lakefront and the black middle class wards on the south side. In some elections the 19th ward will turn out 4-5 times the vote than in some hispanic wards. Chuy needs to ramp up the hispanic vote to less pathetic levels, get a majority of the black vote and keep Rahm under 55% of the white vote. Then he could win it. Rahm only got 51 percent of the vote in his home ward, the 47th. Rahm only did really well downtown, the north lakefront minus Rogers Park, and in the 50th in West Rogers Park. Chuy won’t get Rahm kinda cash, but he won’t need it. He should be able to raise a few million nationally just from the hate the 1 percenters club. This is gonna be fun to watch. Rahm should never have left the House. His personality is more fit to backroom dealmaking than being the leader of a major city. - B.C. - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:37 am: Rahm’s “loss” yesterday is all about the African-American vote tanking on him. He actually improved over his 2011 percentages in some of the old organization wards, despite the high number of Rahm-hating teachers and other city workers who live there. In the 13th Ward, his share of the vote improved from 37 percent in 2011 to 51 percent this year. In the 41st, he moved from 42 to 48 percent. In the 19th he jumped from 37 to 42 percent. But those modest gains were blown out of the water by his loss of black support. Look at two of the highest turnout African-American wards: In the 21st, he went from 59 to 42 percent. In the 34th, he dropped from 60 to 45 percent. For the run-off, he either has to identify supporters who didn’t show up at the polls Tuesday and get them out in April, or he has to win over Wilson/Walls supporters who just voted against him. Niether task is easy. - Cold - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:57 am: I remember polling during the teacher’s strike suggesting that Rahm had problems with female voters. Wonder if anyone has polled on that for Rahm/Chuy. - Snucka - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 11:03 am: The mayoral race is in some serious uncharted waters right now. Since 1995, either Daley or Emanuel have won easily, but I don’t think turnout has ever been above 40%. We also have no data on mayors runoffs, as one has never occurred here. Garcia has to generate the kind of enthusiasm that would push turnout closer to 60 or 65%. The last non-presidential race to bring out more than 50% of city voters was the 2010 gubernatorial race (52%). It will require some heavy lifting, but the possibility of national attention makes it at least plausible. - Hacksaw Jim - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 11:09 am: === One of the few constants is Ed Burke’s total domination of the 14th. === === Ed Burke may dominate the 14th, but he only turned out 5900 votes === It is well known that Burke’s goal is to control the vote in his Ward. With that said, Chuy won the 14th with 52% of the vote. Rahm only had 37% in the 14th. Either Burke’s organization isn’t as strong as people think it is, or he really wasn’t backing the Mayor. Something to think about. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 12:00 pm: Rahm just needs 1 out of every 4 of those who voted for other candidates….Rahm working hard for the African American vote (Obama endorsement can’t hurt…Scrutiny on Garcia now… Seems like Garcia needs to excite voters enough to boost turnout, and I don’t see that happening. I’ve seen his TV ad. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 12:06 pm: ==- Independent - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 9:55 am:== Both the 11th and 33rd pickup up new territory. The 11th picked up some parts of Pilsen that were bad for Danny Solis. ==- IrishPirate - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 10:35 am:== One of the Joyce clan was onstage at Chuy’s party. He got 36% in the 19th, Rahm only 41%. ==- Hacksaw Jim - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 11:09 am:== He didn’t back Emanuel last time, but managed to not get decapitated by Rahm. Maybe Burke did a little calulus: If I don’t work this now and it goes into a runoff, I get some leverage with Rahm and if Rahm won on Tuesday, Burke could’ve said, “the ward’s changing.” - Hacksaw Jim - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 12:23 pm: === Maybe Burke did a little calulus: If I don’t work this now and it goes into a runoff, I get some leverage with Rahm and if Rahm won on Tuesday, Burke could’ve said, “the ward’s changing.” === I guess we will see April 7th. I suspect that the outcome will be silimar to what it was on Tuesday. - A guy - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 12:54 pm: Rumor has it, folks in Burke’s ward had a much clearer path to the polls. - crazybleedingheart - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 12:56 pm: Speaking of his need to court African-American voters, I wonder if Emanuel is going to be made to answer about CPD management and tactics, now that the black site story from Election Day need not be overshadowed by coverage of the horserace. On Election Day - immediately following the Guardian story - Frank Main did CPD the giant favor of publishing their “Abu Ghraib Defense” (if you know the building is there, it can’t be the site of secret and illegal interrogation activities). For those of you who wondered and exclaimed how, HOW, the Chicago media wouldn’t have known/reported on the story if it were really true: Ask yourselves about Chicago media followup on their own stories with fishy details. http://chicago.suntimes.com/news-chicago/7/71/393084/homan-square-site-chicago-police-deny-report-secret-interrogation-compound “The Guardian also ominously noted that John Hubbard, 44, was found unresponsive in an interview room at Homan Square and pronounced dead on Feb. 2, 2013. The Guardian said the Cook County medical examiner’s office couldn’t locate a record indicating his cause of death. But on Tuesday, the office told the Sun-Times that Hubbard died of an accidental heroin overdose. He was taken into custody after he allegedly bought drugs from an undercover officer, arrest records show.” *********** It’s been two days. 1. CPD sold Hubbard drugs. 2. CPD arrested Hubbard. 3. ??? 4. Hubbard died of drug overdose in a CPD facility. Seems like CPD should be able to fill in the blank. Seems like Frank Main should have asked them to in the first place. Seems like within two days someone else should’ve asked. Seems like if Cook County ME could locate a death record the same day the story broke, the Cook County ME should have been able to tell Frank Main pretty quickly whether or not they received any requests from Ackerman. Did he even ask? If so, why not report their response? I’d hate to think he was just printing stories CPD journalists handed him. Seems like in two days someone else could’ve asked Cook ME whether Ackerman requested Hubbard’s records and what he got. - A guy - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 1:03 pm: Because guy who win the Pulitzer can’t do this without your help? This story still has a lot of fog around it. Need to give this one a few days. - Rod - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 1:39 pm: First there was a reasonably good interview last night on WTTW with Cook County Commissioner García and it can be watched at http://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2015/02/25/mayoral-candidate-jes-s-chuy-garc-runoff-election Second, both the Mayor and Garcia are in denial over the situation Chicago faces with its own pension obligations and the fact the City has the lowest property tax rate in Cook County. All that having been said Mayor Emanuel is very likely to win for demographic reasons and the fact that I expect the Mayor’s campaign will unleash if necessary Commissioner Garcia’s son’s racist comments made to off duty black CPD officers that appear in court records. On this issue see http://chicago.suntimes.com/news-chicago/7/71/351122/mayoral-challenger-garcia-backed-deal-firm-gave-son-free-legal-help While a father can not be held responsible for his adult son’s actions, having this son on the stage with him on election night may take this all to another level. It will be hard for Emanuel’s people not to play this card, the property tax exemption issue that he used against Commissioner Garcia in TV commercials will be tame stuff compared to what could be coming. According to the Sun Times in a February 2013 case, Samuel Garcia tried to crash into the car of an off-duty officer while flashing gang signs and yelling a racial slur, according to a police report that said he shouted, “F – - – you n – - – a king killa b – - – -.” According to the Sun Times when the officer identified himself as a Chicago cop and unzipped his jacket to reveal his blue uniform, Garcia replied, “I don’t give a f – - – if you CPD. CPD killa n – - – a,” records show. Now if you are a black CPD officer or a member of that officer’s family are you likely to vote for a guy who has a son with this on his record. I suspect not and that right there is a good number of black votes lost. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 1:40 pm: Chicago media is in “knockdown” mode on the Guardian story. Not unusual when you’ve been scooped. A suspect dies in police custody. At first, medical examiner has no record. Then, they come back and say it was an accidental heroin overdose. The dude was in custody for buying drugs from an undercover cop. End of story? Seriously? - Carhartt Representative - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 1:48 pm: I think the problem is that people assume that the next six weeks will play out just like the last six weeks. 1. Rahm’s air of invincibility is very diminished. People discouraged from going to the polls because they didn’t see a point, may well come out for Chuy. 2. Garcia had no money and not a single staff expenditure through December 31st. He didn’t have a single out of state donation over $150. I expect all of that to change. 3. Chuy’s got the momentum now. 4. A lot of CTU and other activist folks who were voting for him without a lot of enthusiasm because he wasn’t Karen Lewis are now going to be energized. 5. Emanuel already saturated mailboxes and airwaves. There are diminishing returns here. It’s all about ground game at this point. 6. I think we might as well just add 100% of Fioretti’s vote to Garcia. Wilson’s crowd probably leans Garcia as does Walls, but I don’t see anyway somebody goes for Fioretti and then goes 100 degrees to vote Rahm. The Fioretti supporters I know already have Garcia signs up. I still think Rahm is the favorite, but I’d call him a 3-2 favorite, not any better than that - orzo - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 1:52 pm: ===Either Burke’s organization isn’t as strong as people think it is, or he really wasn’t backing the Mayor.=== This is an issue worth pondering. The Chairman managed to scare off any Hispanic opposition in a majority Hispanic ward, but couldn’t–or wouldn’t–carry for Rahm. Perhaps he sees his power increasing under a Garcia administration. - Gman - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 1:52 pm: I agree with B.C. @ 10:37. Rahm improved his percentages on the Northwest and Southwest Sides. Or another way of looking at it, Chuy underperformed Gerry Chico pretty dramatically in the 13th, 19th and 41st Wards. Chico went 50-49-50 percent respectively in those wards, and that was with Miguel DeValle on the ballot too. Chuy went 37-36-31 percent in those wards on Tuesday. So the whole ball game for Rahm is in the black community. He must regain his mojo there. Not sure he can improve much over his Tuesday numbers in what we used to call the “white ethnic” wards, or on the lakefront either. - Gooner - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 1:53 pm: “Air of invincibility”? Geez, that hasn’t existed since March, 2011. The only people who thought there wouldn’t be a run off were progressives so used to losing that they just assumed this race would be like most of the rest. And you are right. Until the time that the CTU convinced him to run and then funded his campaign, he didn’t spend a dime. Poor, poor Chuy, the guy who had to rely on huge union checks to keep the doors open. But if he’s elected, he will not owe them a thing. Nope, he’s going to be our mayor, and not just the mayor of those who first convinced him to run and then wrote just about every significant check to his campaign. - Gooner - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 1:57 pm: Rod, I can absolutely guaranty that nobody connected with the Mayor is going to touch that card. Despite all the garbage thrown at the Mayor, he knows that kids are off limits. You will never hear about that from him. - anon - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 2:01 pm: @Gooner. I’m sure Rahm doesn’t owe any of his numerous and wealthy donors a single thing either. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 2:26 pm: Fioretti’s support came from White voters. Don’t be shocked if some Fioretti voters can’t stomach voting for a Mexican. But an anecdote: a person I know is Black and frequently posts pretty racist stuff against Mexicans and Latinos. S/he attacks Obama for doing too much for Latinos. And this person is all-in for Chuy. If turnout increases, Rahm is going to be drubbed. If turnout stays the same, Rahm will lose. So, Rahm needs to depress turnout even more. How does one reduce turnout even further? Negative ads about Chuy. As a wise man noted: Rahm doesn’t have many friends in Chicago politics. If they see Rahm circling the drain, nobody is going to save him b/c they like him. - Hesh - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 2:29 pm: Rod, Gooner I think Rahm will subtly play that card by focusing on the pro-bono legal work from a law firm that Chuy voted to give a big county contract to…that’s actually a legit hit. And I hate to add to the off-topic discussion on the Guardian story, but I sense a bit of sensationalism. No doubt, CPD has deservedly caught heat for their handling of criminal suspects over the years, but the “black site” stuff in this story is pure hyperbole. Interesting little conflict here: http://my.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-82918274/ - Gooner - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 2:35 pm: Hesh, Chuy wasn’t at the County when the firm did the free work and moreover, the contract was routine. That firm does a lot of work for the County. There is no real issue. Rahm will not touch it. The police will not touch it either since Chuy will likely be easier on them than Rahm at contract time. Rahm’s a tough guy, but he doesn’t cross that line. - Under Further Review - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 2:42 pm: Mary Mitchell of the Sun-Times had a similar take on Emanuel’s poor performance as did Kass, but she emphasized the candidacy of Willie Wilson that pulled 10% of the vote. Sneed suggested that the meeting between Emanuel and Wilson did not go too well — hard to expect much from such a meeting since Emanuel’s allies challenged Wilson’s nominating petition and lost after a costly records check. In all likelihood, Rahm’s nonstop advertisements probably fostered some complacency with some of his likely voters (Why vote when you are being told that it is in the bag for weeks and weeks?) Chicago voter apathy was the story of the 2015 election, but I was shocked how Emanuel failed to match his poll numbers on Tuesday and Garcia pulled in more votes than the last polls indicated. Obama was able to deliver for Quinn in 2010 and Emanuel in 2011, but his endorsement does not seem to count for much now. - jimbo2 - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 2:55 pm: “The Chairman managed to scare off any Hispanic opposition in a majority Hispanic ward, but couldn’t–or wouldn’t–carry for Rahm. Perhaps he sees his power increasing under a Garcia administration.” Could that be a dynamic that plays out in other words? - Hesh - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 3:00 pm: Sorry, Gooner, Couldn’t disagree with you more. First, re-read the Sun-Times story. Chuy not only supported the bond deal for the law firm, he co-sponsored it. Second, look at that headline: “Garcia backed county deal with firm that gave son free legal work” Not using that in a campaign would be political malpractice. - Under Further Review - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 3:05 pm: Credit where credit is due: Garcia was endorsed by County Clerk David Orr, who was the longtime alderman of the 49th Ward. He still lives there. Obviously, Orr’s endorsement helped Chuy in Rogers Park. Emanuel had Congressman Luis Gutierrez introduce him at the Plumbers’ Hall. Luis used to represent the 26th Ward, both as an alderman and committeeman, but Garcia carried the 26th. - Gooner - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 3:20 pm: Hesh, The events were roughly five years apart. At the time the firm did the work, Chuy was not in a position to help them. The contract itself was routine. That firm does that sort of work constantly. It is like approving FedEx to do deliveries. There is nothing there. - Hesh - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 4:03 pm: Gooner, I’m not arguing with you about the merits of the Sun-Times piece…I’m arguing with your “Rahm will not touch it” theory. We’re talking about Rahm Freaking Emanuel. He will touch it. He’s punched much, much further below the belt than this. And actually, now that I think of it, while this ain’t exactly the Watergate break-in, there are some legit questions raised by this story. Hot shot law firms do pro-bono work for poor criminal defendents on ocassion, but giving the middle-class son of a long-time politician a freebie? That’s gonna raise an eyebrow or two. I’m not saying his vote on the county board was a quid pro quo…my sense is you’re probably right, approving the contract was a mere formality for the county board. But, c’mon. There’s a little bit of smoke here. He at least has to explain how he swung pro-bono work out of one of the city’s most clout heavy law firms. - Carhartt Representative - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 4:40 pm: =“Air of invincibility”? Geez, that hasn’t existed since March, 2011.= Read this forum and look how many people posted that there would be no runoff. On Chicago This Week, 5 “experts” all agreed there would be no runoff. All the newspapers the week before the election were trumpeting a poll showing Rahm at 45% as him being inches a way and so many Chicagoans felt that nobody had a chance to beat Rahm. =Poor, poor Chuy, the guy who had to rely on huge union checks to keep the doors open. But if he’s elected, he will not owe them a thing.= Look how much Garcia got from CPU http://www.elections.il.gov/CampaignDisclosure/CommitteeDetail.aspx?id=26214 Now look how much Rahm got from hedge funders http://www.elections.il.gov/CampaignDisclosure/CommitteeDetail.aspx?id=22989 We already know about the sweetheart deals that Rahm’s donors get http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-rahm-emanuel-political-donors-met-20150130-story.html#page=1 - LatinoVoterSpokesman - Thursday, Feb 26, 15 @ 9:46 pm: The Sleeping Giant is stirring… Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.