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Poll has Emanuel leading 51-37

Friday, Mar 13, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

The survey had Emanuel at 51 percent to 37 percent for Garcia with less than four weeks before the April 7 runoff election. Both candidates have gained around 5 percentage points since the first round of voting last month. Another 11 percent of voters remained undecided in the poll, which was conducted March 6 through Wednesday. […]

(T)he poll shows Emanuel’s support rebounding among black voters, a group viewed by both campaigns as a major key to winning next month. Among African-American voters, 52 percent backed the mayor, 31 percent supported Garcia and 15 percent were undecided. […]

Among black voters, 50 percent have a favorable view of the mayor, up from 44 percent last month. But for Garcia, the percentage of black voters with a favorable view grew only slightly since last month, to 31 percent from 28 percent, while those who viewed him unfavorably more than doubled to 22 percent from 9 percent. […]

Overall, a third of the city’s voters have no impression of Garcia, while 40 percent view him favorably and 24 percent look at him in an unfavorable light… Emanuel is now viewed favorably by 50 percent of all voters, while 32 percent have an unfavorable impression of the mayor.


  1. - chi - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 8:21 am:

    It’s the great test to see which of Rauner’s campaign tactics won it for him: was it the endless commercials, or was it the lack of specifics and vague platitudes? So far endless commercials are winning.

  2. - Rick - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 8:44 am:

    Rahm actually needed this poll. All the momentum has been with Chuy for two weeks.

    Still, I think every poll might slightly overstate Rahm’s support. The “he’s-a-jerk, but-he’s-the-best-guy-for-the-job” argument might ring true with a lot of voters, but it won’t drive much turnout on Election Day. Chuy’s backers are gonna be more motivated — by either hatred for Rahm or Latino pride.

  3. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 8:44 am:

    Rahm over 50% in a one on one race isn’t surprising here.

    I didn’t think any of the challengers would be strong enough, organizationally, to rally enough support to get to 50% + 1, in that one on one dynamic.

    So far, that’s held up. It’s really up to Garcia to show a strong political Crew that consolidate and bake a winning cake. Rahm was already at 45% in a 5 way race, Garcia needed/needs a Crew to find that 50% + 1, not by endorsement but by “pluses”

    Rahm is, in this very specific snapshot, in a sweet spot; build off the “51%”, stay on the path. Garcia needs lots more right now, this simple stand alone snapshot, for me, only reinforces these thoughts.

  4. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 8:47 am:


    I imagine it is field organization.

    I have a hard time believing any poll of this race.

    Chicago has never had a mayoral runoff.

    Ergo, there is very little data on which to base a turnout model.

    And with no turnout model, the poll is little more than a best guess, unless your sample size is huge.

  5. - Frenchie Mendoza - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 8:52 am:

    Fingers crossed for Chuy.

    The fireworks between Rauner and Garcia would be phenomenal. Rauner would implode.

  6. - jeffinginChicago - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 8:53 am:

    I live in the 48th Ward of Chicago. A Chuy supporter rang my doorbell yesterday. It is the first political activity since the primary. No signs in the neighborhood no one talking about an election. Turnout may be extremely low.

  7. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 8:56 am:

    It is difficult to see Rahm Emanuel rebuilding his political career on the national stage if he manages to scrape by with 51%. The damage has been done. It is interesting in many ward races, veteran alderman associated with Rahm saw their margins reduced substantially and they had to distance themselves from the mayor. Rahm is toxic. He could be upset.

  8. - Ghost Payroller - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:01 am:

    Turnout, turnout, turnout.

    Will CTU get its members to the polls on April 7, even though school is out? Remind them to vote early if they are heading on vacation?

    also I have not seen Rahm’s negative barrage towards Chuy yet since the primary. Stocking up?

  9. - Ducky LaMoore - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:10 am:

    Not unexpected. Rahm’s organization is as vast as his campaign account. It is tough for any challenger with very limited resources to get that 50%+1.

  10. - Wordslinger - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:14 am:

    GP, I saw a negative spot from Emanuel against Garcia last night during the Hawks game. Hit him for being vague on city finances (look who’s talking, lol).

  11. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:21 am:

    The sweater is working!

    Seriously, YDD raises a great point, we’re in uncharted territory in the run off. No one knows for sure who will be voting. CTU is energized for Chuy. Rahm is working harder than he’s ever had to in his life.

    It’s going down to the wire for sure, but this poll gives Rahm a much-needed boost.

  12. - Carhartt Representative - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:22 am:

    Is Rahm leading right now? I have no doubt.

    Does this poll mean much? I doubt this too. The Tribune is the same group that had the poll that showed Rahm close to 50% and Garcia at 18% right before the run off. I trust Ogden Fry more. I also wonder when it contradicts the last three Ogden and Fry polls if it’s a different methodology or an outlier. Rahm probably does lead, but it’s definitely not over.

  13. - Tom - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:25 am:

    I’d bet the ranch on Rahm. CHewy just doesn’t have the money to get the message out and Rahm will kill him on TV.

  14. - Nucky Thompson - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:27 am:

    I have not met one person of any race who lives in the city who says they’re voting for Rahm. I know that means NOTHING but I do find it really hard to believe the Trib poll. The man’s so unlikeable he even admits it in his own commercials.

  15. - The Captain - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:29 am:

    If Garcia is going to put together the momentum needed to win he needs to get solid enthusiasm among Hispanics where he has the chance to be the city’s first Hispanic mayor and he needs his recent endorsements in the black community (Jesse Jackson, Rainbow/Push, Danny Davis, Wilson, etc.) to turn into a significant increase in African American support. That’s not what this poll shows, Emanuel is holding on to 1/3 of the Hispanic vote, the exact same percent he had in February and it’s Emanuel who’s increasing his support among African Americans at a slightly greater rate.

    Garcia finished 58,000 votes behind Rahm. He has to catch him in raw vote, to do that either he needs to win the 100,000 voters who voted for Fioretti/Wilson/Walls by a margin of 79,000 - 21,000 or he needs to expand the universe. If he’s going to expand the universe he needs to do that in areas where his enthusiasm is the strongest and if there really was a groundswell of enthusiasm for Garcia at this point in time I think you’d see at least some erosion of Emanuel support among Hispanics since February but that’s not happening. The underlying numbers here should concern the Garcia campaign.

  16. - MrJM - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:29 am:

    ‘The “he’s-a-jerk, but-he’s-the-best-guy-for-the-job” argument might ring true with a lot of voters, but it won’t drive much turnout on Election Day.’

    I choose to believe this.
    Helps me sleep at night.

    – MrJM

  17. - Jack Jackson - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:32 am:

    Not over ’til its over. More votes coming out of Latino wards than expected. 3 weeks is a long time. Wait and see.

  18. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:38 am:

    - The Captain -,

    The dynamic was a 5-way race. Raw ballots then v. now is just not a reasonable jump.

    - YDD - and - 47th Ward -, really have the best lens lookibg at this;

    Any speculation as to turnout is is indeed speculation in the truest sense. Chicago has never gotten this far, with this office, in any election. The worry is on Rahm as to getting his “pluses” out. The fear is on Garcia as to the CTU and the coalitions generating momentum mog yet seen in polling.

    This is already a block by block, neighborhood by neighborhood, even Ward by Ward slugfest. Already. Going to be a true, honest, “street fight”, and those are actually my favorite.

  19. - Hacksaw Jim - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:38 am:

    Rahm has no machine to rely on. Outside of the 13th Ward, there isn’t another organization that has been worth their (road) salt to the Mayor. He’s essentially on his own here, and hes scared to death about it. Why else would he remove 50 red light cameras? April 7th can’t get here soon enough.

  20. - Snucka - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:42 am:

    Agreed that the turnout model is very difficult to figure. However, if Rahm is actually at 52% of the black vote, I cant see a scenario where he loses.

    Also, to Nucky’s point, I live on the north side, and I don’t think I know anyone voting for Chuy except for one friend who is a CPS teacher.

  21. - The Captain - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:45 am:

    “The dynamic was a 5-way race. Raw ballots then v. now is just not a reasonable jump.” - OW

    Yes it is.

    Of all the assumptions you can make about the April electorate the easiest assumption to make is that the 378,631 people who voted for either Emanuel or Garcia are the most likely to turn out. We know that on Feb 24 those voters gave Emanuel a 58K vote advantage, Garcia has to make that up.

  22. - ChiTownSeven - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:48 am:

    Chuy’s biggest problem is that he did not staff up his campaign after he got through the primary. The fact that Chuy still has not produced any semblance of an economic plan, or a plan to create blue-collar jobs, or a plan to reduce payments on bonded debt, or a plan to fund 1000 more cops on the street shows just how shallow his bench is. I know many many people who get regular email and text updates from the likes of Toni Preckwinkle — all regular Chicago democratic voters and all regular campaign contributors — and not one of them have received an email or a text from Chuy’s campaign. I know several highly qualified people who have reached out to the campaign to offer help, and none of them have even received a call back. The Trib gave Chuy space of an OpEd today, but beyond vague generalities, Chuy’s OpEd offered no details, no insight, no game-changing ideas, and no persuasive and attention-grabbing rhetoric. Part of the problem lies with Chuy’s campaign manager, who has stood in the way of people who are willing to work or volunteer for Chuy in campaign finance, campaign operations, campaign communications, and campaign policy. Sharp is running the HQ as if his candidate is running for alderman (we don’t need no help from nobody we don’t know) instead of running for mayor of a city that has national attention. But at the end of the day, the problem (and the solution) lies with Chuy. Come on, Chuy. The terrain of the race has changed. It’s time to bring in people who have the experience to play on a professional and informed rapid-response team. You need people who have some expertise in the internal aspects of a campaign (campaign managagement and campaign finance), the external aspects of the campaign (communications, campaign surrogation, new media, etc.), and the policy aspects of the campaign (municipal finance, municipal revenue, new ways to create neighborhood jobs, funding cops on the street, etc.). It might not be too late for you to take advantage of the tailwind, but you gotta bring in some new people fast.

  23. - Kimly - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:50 am:

    Seems odd black voters would favor Rahm so much but given the rare opportunity to bring democracy to Chicago, so maybe CTU will exert a ground game strong enough to counter the TV bombardment by Rahm. I was surprised at how well Garcia did in the primary which tells me not to rely on polls.

  24. - Rahm'sMiddleFinger - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:58 am:

    Thank you Lord Jesus! Finally some good news!

  25. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:59 am:

    What exactly is the Emanuel plan for Chicago’s budget and pension obligations? If he has a plan after four years, it is a well kept secret. After forty-eight months on the job, why has there been so little progress?

  26. - Gooner - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:00 am:


    The “unlikeable” thing means nothing to a lot of us.

    We don’t want to have a beer with him. We want him to make the tough decisions.

    Right now, it looks like Chuy got into a race he was not prepared to enter, and he has no real idea what he wants to do as Mayor. He’s offered no specifics.

    In four years, when he’s given it some thought, Chuy can make the race. Right now? He’s not ready.

  27. - Chris - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:01 am:


    “I have not met one person of any race who lives in the city who says they’re voting for Rahm. ”

    You haven’t met me, but I’m voting for Rahm. As are most of my neighbors.

    I’m voting against someone who is promising to spend hundreds of millions of extra dollars, and cut hundreds of millions of fines/fees/etc and has explained ZERO about how he will pay for it.

    Chuy’s ramblings about TIF funds aren’t credible, as it’s completely obvious that 100% of the TIF funds aren’t enough to pay for his Cop pledge, nevermind all the other things he’s intending to use the money for. And he can’t possibly be so ill-informed to believe that there is enough TIF $$ (unless he is, in which case it’s worse).

  28. - ChiTownSeven - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:03 am:

    == Chicagopropertytaxpayer - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 9:52 am: Thank goodness! 🚍🚊✈️🚣🎡🏢🏫🏠🏡🏫🏡🏢🏫🏤 ==

    You’re a fool if you don’t know that taxes are going to rise under Rahm. Even the alderman who are supporting him have acknowledged that. The only question for Rahm is this: who is going to pay the taxes? And under his leadership, it’s pretty likely that he will be taking the Rauner approach — that is, tax increases spread across all taxpayers, hurting low and middle-income people a lot more than rich people and a lot more than corporations. So when you say ‘Thank Goodness,’ what are you really saying? Daley and now Rahm have created a @!#*storm in city finance — who would you rather have clean it up? A guy who’s never really worked for a living, who was born in privilege and graduated in privilege and got rich because of his privilege, and who doesn’t really understand what it’s like to never quite have enough money, or a guy like Chuy? I know my answer. The data showing that disposable income for the middle class is shrinking while it keeps growing for the upper class tells a pretty graphic tale.

  29. - A guy - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:03 am:

    Rahm’s messaging has been spot on since the target was confined to one guy.
    His ad demonstrating a humble message was masterful. He’s been getting earned media daily for being at L stops every morning.
    His negative ads on Chuy are above the line and not personal and mean-spirited.
    A lot of people in the city wanted to teach him a lesson. The polling indicates they believe he’s learned his lesson.
    He’s getting back a lot of his AA support. Wilson’s song and dance wavering made him irrelevant.
    Jesse J ain’t helping.

    Rahm scores in the high 50s before it’s over. Undecideds go to the devil they know. Too much risk given the finances.
    Rahm has an outside shot at 60.
    Next 3 weeks = Don’t screw up. Unlikely to snow between now and then.
    Lesson learned.
    Taxes going up. With some understanding, making it a lot less fatal.

  30. - Chris - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:05 am:


    “[Chuy]’s offered no specifics.”

    He’s offered 4 specifics, and I’ve parctically *begged* someone to tell me what else there is:

    1. Eliminate traffic cameras and $70m+ from the budget.
    2. Add 1,000 cops “to the streets” (which is either $100m/year, or exactly the same as Rahm’s plan of the past 4 years–get CPD out of the stations).
    3. Handle TIFs differently (as does Rahm compared to Daley…)
    4. Not be named Rahm.

    Can *anyone* enlighten me on what else there is? Is anyone voting *for* Chuy, and if so, why?

  31. - Chris - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:07 am:

    “Why else would he remove 50 red light cameras? ”

    Why did he remove some RLCs 2 years ago?

    Was there a city election in 2013 that I missed?

  32. - Chris - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:09 am:


    If you were designing a tax for Chicago that could raise about $500m for the City (and hopefully about $1b for CPS) and you wanted it to hit *mostly* “rich” people (define however you like), and you *knew* you had to do it without Springfield legislation, what would the tax be?

    Chicago ain’t getting an income tax while Rauner is in the mansion.

  33. - From the 'Dale to HP - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:09 am:

    This poll is a pretty horrible poll for Chuy.

    However, I’m not buying this: “Emanuel is now viewed favorably by 50 percent of all voters, while 32 percent have an unfavorable impression of the mayor.” Not to sound like Pauline Kael, but I have no clue where in Chicago this 50% favorably for Rahm live. If you include the ‘burbs, sure, but just Chicago? Not buying it.

    And if Rahm has 50% favorably, why are we in a run off? Not sure this is passing the smell test.

  34. - From the 'Dale to HP - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:16 am:


    To be fair, Rahm hasn’t offered specifics unless kicking the can down the road is considered a specific. Neither candidate has offered any sort of a plan for the city; we’ll see what Chuy says today.

  35. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:17 am:

    ===And if Rahm has 50% favorably, why are we in a run off?===

    Things change. Rahm is running a ton of TV and he now has just one opponent.

  36. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:18 am:

    “Rahm has no machine to rely on. Outside of the 13th Ward… He’s essentially on his own here, and hes scared to death about it.”

    Maybe Governor Rauner can pardon or parole Donald Tomczak and his Water Department crew to work for Rahm. They delivered big for him in his Congressional race, but Rahm denied knowing about their methods. As for Ward 13, Emanuel wound up with about 52% of the vote… Meh.

  37. - Carhartt Representative - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:19 am:

    =The fact that Chuy still has not produced any semblance of an economic plan, or a plan to create blue-collar jobs, or a plan to reduce payments on bonded debt, or a plan to fund 1000 more cops on the street shows just how shallow his bench is.=

    What does it say, that Rahm hasn’t figured out any of this four years after being elected.

  38. - Hacksaw Jim - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:29 am:


    2013 was when the RedFlex $!%@ hit the fan. Now, it is about the election. If you can’t see that you are truly blind. I am one of the residents of Chicago that don’t mind the red light cameras, and I can see that.

  39. - Belle - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:33 am:

    It’s great that Rahm ahs so much money to spend but that can also turn off a lot of people either by:
    -voters believing that he has the votes to win so they don’t bother to vote
    -voters being so annoyed by the commercials that they don’t vote or go for Garcia.

    I live in the 2nd Ward and we have an Aldermanic run-off so there is still a lot of voting chat. People are on FB and Everyblock talking up Garcia…while I know people who support Rahm, I’m not seeing the Rahm-Love via on-line.

  40. - Hacksaw Jim - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:33 am:

    === who would you rather have clean it up? … who doesn’t really understand what it’s like to never quite have enough money, or a guy like Chuy? ===

    I’d rather have Rahm. And quite frankly, if you think that Chuy isn’t going to raise property taxes you are delusional. Chicago property taxes need to be raised. The fact that Chuy claims that he isn’t going to raise them is either a sheer act of politics or a sheer act of incompetence. Take your pick.

  41. - Nosmo King - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:36 am:

    Uh oh, this poll puts Pickle Joyce in a pickle!

  42. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:39 am:

    For those who reside in wards without aldermanic run-off elections, the mayor has to be sweating turnout. There is only one race on these ballots and nothing else to vote for.

    If this is a popularity contest, Rahm is in possible trouble.

  43. - ChiTownSeven - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:41 am:

    - Carhartt Representative - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:19 am: == What does it say, that Rahm hasn’t figured out any of this four years after being elected.==

    You miss the point, which is that Chuy needs to staff up NOW if he wants to win the race. You can tell a lot about a campaign by how it interacts with the outside world, so let’s take a look:

    1. No emails or texts to regular democratic voters and contributors who get emails and texts from other candidates and officials on a weekly basis.

    2. No calls returned to qualified experts who are calling the campaign and offering to help out.

    3. An OpEd in today’s Tribune that says nothing to get attention, increase contributions, sway voters, or raise the profile of the campaign or the candidate. Did you see that piece? Is there anything in there that you could call new or interesting or ground-breaking? Talk about milk-toast.

    4. No plans or themes or rhetoric to show how or under what policy parameters Chuy will address problems with long-term debt, finance, revenue, budget, police force, economic development, and school closings. Such aspects of a campaign might not be needed for the dyed-in-the-wool progressives, but he needs them NOW if he wants to persuade the undecideds that he is not the “devil you don’t know.”

    These are all syptoms of the problem, which is that Chuy has not staffed up as he needs to if he wants to win this race. He still might have a tailwind, but without an expert crew, he can’t harness it.

  44. - IrishPirate - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:43 am:

    Rahm has proven himself unwilling and unable to deal with the fiscal crisis. Chuy likely wouldn’t be any better, but I don’t think you would see him trying to sell off vast amounts of contracts or assets to his contributors.

    As for the poll I don’t believe it. My guess is flip a coin and watch where people turn out. Rahm badly needs the north lakefront to turn out in big numbers and the white SW and NW side wards.

    To those who say many white voters on the SW or NW sides won’t vote for a a hispanic I suggest they look at how Gary Chico carried the 19th ward in 2011.

    This Chuy ad features a firefighter who sounds like he stars in one of those new tv series focusing on Chicago cops or firemen. His accent screams white working class. If this gets some play and if it’s indicative of what’s out there then Rahm is toast.

  45. - pundent - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:54 am:

    Here’s why Rahm’s numbers and favorability are improving - he’s defining the race. Chuy’s in the position he’s in because he was that best candidate not named Rahm. However, he hasn’t done much to build off of that. And when Rahm is able to pressure Chuy to unveil a financial plan while staying quiet on his own plans, Rahm is winning.

  46. - Lundstrom - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:56 am:

    The Tribune is backing Rahm Emanuel, so I do not trust that its polling is accurate. It is meant to give an illusion and help Emanuel.

    What is up with Toni Preckwinckle? I find her stance on runoff strange. Like pretty much everyone, she doesn’t like Rahm Emanuel, which is a well-known fact. She throws her full support to Joe Berrios every and any chance she gets, and he’s known bad quantity, but she’s tepid and non-committal when it comes to Garica, her own floor leader, who is as clean and pure as they come. In Chicago, Cook County and Illinois politics that is no small accomplishment. She fancies herself a reformer and the media have bought into it by constantly overlooking her flagrant support of all things Berrios. Here her own floor leader, who has real reformer street cred, is running to unseat the guy she cannot stand, and she can’t bring herself to publicly support him?

  47. - Gooner - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 10:58 am:

    The Chuy supporters here are acting like tea partiers.

    Don’t like reality? Just deny it and blame the media.

    This thread is more proof that the far left and the far right are remarkably similar.

  48. - pundent - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:02 am:

    Lundstrom - No one is “as clean and pure as they come”. And Preckwinkle can read the tea leaves.

  49. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:05 am:

    “Don’t like reality? Just deny it and blame the media.”

    Since when are polls reality? In February, all of the polls significantly underestimated Garcia’s appeal. I think that his percentages were six to eight points higher than the polls indicated.

    I do not deny Emanuel has the advantage, but he is going to be a weaker and chastened figure if he survives. Real Clear Politics and Chicago Magazine both ran a lengthy articles about the real possibility that Rahm could actually lose to Garcia. He’s that well liked.

  50. - Gooner - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:09 am:


    Of course he could lose. Only the people on the far left thought otherwise.

    The rest of us saw that the mayor was polling around Quinn-like numbers.

    But go ahead. Keep claiming that everybody is out to get you and there is some vast right wing media bias. And then shake your head and wonder why people think tea partiers and “progressives” sound remarkably similar.

  51. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:12 am:


    I am not sure what you are talking about. I have not complained about media bias. My only complaint about Chicago media is that the two daily newspapers do not provide enough coverage.

  52. - A guy - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:15 am:

    UFR, the polls did not correctly assess Chuy’s numbers, but they did bode for a runoff. Many more undecideds then.

  53. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:18 am:

    @A guy:

    I think that assessment is correct.

  54. - Gooner - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:26 am:

    One thing to note — that poll was conducted before Chuy added the sign truck.

    Now, signs don’t vote, but giant signs on trucks?

    This may be the game changer.

    Let’s see where the numbers are post-truck.

  55. - Carhartt Representative - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:29 am:

    It’s not that I claim a conspiracy, it’s just that the Tribune polling was off prior to Feb. 24th and I trust Ogden-Fry a lot more. We’ve had three consecutive O&F polls showing very similar numbers and now a Tribune poll showing a big swing for Emanuel. The Tribune poll before the Feb 24 election had Garcia with only 20% of the vote. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that this one also has methodology that hurt Garcia. A few more polls from other organizations collaborating those numbers would go a long way towards convincing me.

  56. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:49 am:

    Why is Rahm Emanuel’s campaign now targeting Chicagoans who regularly vote in the Republican primaries? Is Emanuel courting the Tea Party?

  57. - jake - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 11:59 am:

    At the end of the day, you can’t beat somebody with nobody. Garcia could still possibly win, but only if he defines himself more clearly in the minds of the voters as somebody with positive attributes they do not see in Emanuel, as opposed to an unknown person who is not Emanuel.

  58. - Chris - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 12:04 pm:

    “I am one of the residents of Chicago that don’t mind the red light cameras, and I can see that.”

    Oh, so it’s about the *timing* of removing them? (yes, I agree, the timing of the announcement is totally about politics)

    The RLCs *should* come and go to any given location. But the anti-RLCs act like there is no reason for anything to move around bc it is solely (solely!) about dipping into people’s pockets, which is whacko.

    Anyway, I’m one of the Chicagoans who *loves* them. Reduce CPD involvement in traffic control, get revenue from people who are *opting in* to breaking the law, etc etc. Bring ‘em on, to more places. And, no, I am *not* an especially cautious driver–I’ve gotten RL tickets, and I probably drive faster (and more impatiently) around the city than you do. But it’s all good, bc I *can* change.

  59. - Chris - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 12:16 pm:

    Lundstrom: “[Chuy] has real reformer street cred”

    Please to explain. Because he sided with Harold against Fast Eddie?

    UFR: “Why is Rahm Emanuel’s campaign now targeting Chicagoans who regularly vote in the Republican primaries?”

    That’s a rhetorical question, right? The mayor of Chicago will be their mayor, too.

  60. - Amalia - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 12:24 pm:

    the possible comments to Chuy’s fiscal “plan” are endless…where’s the beef? that’s it/really? is that all you’ve got? honestly, embarrassing. who knows what polls are correct, but the mountain to climb is not as great for Rahm.

  61. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 1:28 pm:

    Chicago is a republican city. Right leaning media WSJ, Politico and of course Rahm’s unofficial campaign workers at the Chicago Tribune are doing are working up a sweat to put lipgloss on the Rahm narrative. Rauner took a break from his post election (”I’m still campaigning til i can figure out how to get some actual work done) has endorsed Rahm for his financial sophistication aka a shell game.
    If Rahm does win look for him to spit out that humble pie. With political future not looking too bright watch Rahm stick it to anyone who didnt kiss his ring. More money will go to corporations and the wealthy and less to poor and middle class. It will be Chicago’s version of trickle down if you know what I mean.

  62. - Snucka - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 1:35 pm:

    UFR: “Why is Rahm Emanuel’s campaign now targeting Chicagoans who regularly vote in the Republican primaries?”

    If you can’t see the demographic overlap between Republican voters and Emanuel’s base, you aren’t looking hard enough.

  63. - Amalia - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 1:36 pm:

    @1:28, yeah, cause fixing the schools so kids can learn better is so bad for poor and middle class kids. pleez. it may not be better for teachers, and that is what this appears to be about. accountability helps kids, not Karen Lewis and her followers.

  64. - Carhartt Representative - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 2:01 pm:

    =@1:28, yeah, cause fixing the schools so kids can learn better is so bad for poor and middle class kids. pleez. it may not be better for teachers, and that is what this appears to be about. accountability helps kids, not Karen Lewis and her followers.=

    Talk to some CPS parents. Longer days with less money is not better for kids. Making kids walk miles through gang infested territory isn’t better for kids. A full day kindegarden with 30 students and 1 teacher without an aide isn’t better for kids. Recess that requires students to stand around in the hallway during the 6 months of the year we have inclement weather isn’t better for kids. More money for charters schools like UNO and Concept isn’t better for kids. There’s a reason CPS parents came out to support the teachers on the strike and every year in polls show that they trust CTU far more than the mayor.

  65. - Snucka - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 2:04 pm:

    =Anonymous: “Chicago is a republican city.”=

    Well, that’s a silly comment. Chicago is strongly Democratic, and the municipal elections are not Republican/Democratic contests.

  66. - Responsa - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 2:07 pm:

    I’m still laughing at the question about why is Rahm targeting R primary voters. Do some people here actually not understand that there are real, living, honest to goodness, taxpaying Republicans who live in the city of Chicago and will be casting their vote for mayor from among the two candidates in the run-off? Unbelievable!

  67. - Under Further Review - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 2:31 pm:


    It was a rhetorical question.

    A previous post compared Garcia supporters to members of the Tea Party.

    Yes, Chicago does have Republican voters who actually do count for something in important primary elections.

  68. - Gooner - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 2:55 pm:


    Let me explain how economics works. If the price of something goes up and income remains the same, then you can’t buy as much.

    So parents who thought the teachers should make more money are now complaining because their are fewer teachers?

    What did they expect?

  69. - Carhartt Representative - Friday, Mar 13, 15 @ 4:39 pm:


    Thanks, I haven’t seen such sincere concern for my well being by someone not wearing a sweater in a long time. Yeah, teachers got a raise. I would think most people being asked to work 10 more days every year and an extra 45 minutes every day would want to earn more money than they did previously, especially as they had no raise the previous year, their insurance contribution was going up, and the mutual agreed on mediator was calling for 20%. Rahm forced the raise with the increased workload. However, his no bid contract to the superintendent’s company for $20,000,000 of worthless principal training didn’t help.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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