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*** UPDATED x1 *** Poll indicates Rauner trouble

Friday, Jun 26, 2015

* This is just one poll, the pollster has had some luck in the past but not always (which is pretty much par for the course with every pollster these days), so don’t jump to too many conclusions. We need more data

The June 20 survey conducted by Chicago-based Ogden & Fry, the only polling firm which correctly predicted Rauner’s five-point victory margin over Quinn, shows that just 35.7% of voters approve of the way the governor is handling his job while 46.7% disapprove or net approval of minus 11 points.

“Nearly half of respondents disapproved of the Governor’s job performance,” Ogden & Fry pollster Tom Swiss wrote in his polling memo.


The poll, which had a +/- 3.75% margin of error, identified 17.6% were undecided.

The robopoll was of 711 likely 2016 voters.

*** UPDATE *** A subsequent Ogden & Fry poll had Sen. Mark Kirk’s approval rating at a mere 16.9 percent. That seems pretty highly unlikely, but who knows.

Again, take these numbers with large grains of salt.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - How Ironic - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:23 am:

    Trover response to above info? “Sham-Poll!”

  2. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:24 am:

    “It’s an ‘Up’ Day”

  3. - Wordslinger - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:27 am:

    Meh, no election for him until 2018.

  4. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:27 am:

    I’m going to wait until “ck” tells me about more and more counties, townships, cities, villages and towns all finally both v for the Rauner Resolutions before I reakky look at this poll as a negative.

    The silent majority of elected bodies who support the Rauner Resolution and yet to be heard is not visible in this sham poll.

  5. - Politix - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:29 am:

    More phony baloney from a corrupt polling firm being held hostage by Madigan-controlled Chicago machine politicians. /s

  6. - Huh? - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:29 am:

    So the voters are coming around to the fact that a billionaire businessman can’t run the state government like a business?

  7. - Politix - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:30 am:

    Beat that ^^^

  8. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:31 am:

    “After being double-crossed into voting against the increase in K-12 state funding and then the Governor signing it anyway, a GOP legislator, asking not to be identified quipped, after reading this poll, ‘Seems like a lot of people are learning more about Mr. Rauner.’…”

  9. - Enviro - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:31 am:

    This could be one reason the governor signed an education funding bill.

  10. - AC - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:31 am:

    But…but he buys flowers and wear’s hard hats next to workin’ people. Plus he’s not like that Madigan who only wants higher taxes, he wants everything along with higher taxes instead. /s

  11. - Skeptic - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:32 am:

    Politix: You forgot to throw in a couple “extremes” and “moderations” in there…you know for balance.

  12. - Soccertease - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:33 am:

    I’m sure it’s a “fair & balanced” poll.

  13. - Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:34 am:

    So the Madigan/Cullerton “counterpoint” numbers are 31/42? A net approval of -11? Same as Rauner? Oof!

    Maybe the title to your article should be changed to “poll indicates Rauner, Madigan, Cullerton trouble.”

  14. - VanillaMan - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:35 am:

    Literally everyone who cares, recognizes that the new governor is still campaigning against everyone who disagrees with him. They also know that the election is over, and he was sworn in.

    The longer Governor Rauner continues to play politics over being governor, the lower his poll number will be.

    It is better to be a compromising governor, than it is to be argumentative gubernatorial candidate.

  15. - AC - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:35 am:

    wear’s was a typo…more accurately auto correct is corrupt, corrects in the extreme and refuses to change and I’ll bet auto correct has lower approval numbers than Blago

  16. - Wordslinger - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:36 am:

    The Kirk number does not seem possible.

  17. - Soccermom - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:36 am:

    This isn’t the Tom Swiss who ran for State Rep, is it? (I am not being coy here. I really don’t know.)

  18. - CharlieKratos - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:37 am:

    He’s already said that his approach is going to ruffle feathers. I doubt very much that this poll is going to put a dent in his “this will hurt, but I know what’s best for Illinois” delusion.

  19. - 47th Ward - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:39 am:

    I agree with Wordslinger, a poll is only a snapshot of today, and fairly meaningless. 2018 is a long time from now and I expect the Governor to rebound. He certainly won’t have to worry about resources. If he needs to run ads year-round, he can do so. What he needs is a positive story to tell and so far, he hasn’t accomplished much. But as it was said, 2018 is a lifetime from now, so I’m sure Rauner is not losing any sleep worrying about approval ratings.

    On the other hand, he’s at 36% approval BEFORE the possible shut down and certain tax hike. He might sink into single digits in a few weeks. For Team Rauner, it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

  20. - Very Fed Up - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:43 am:

    This looks bad, until you look at the poll numbers from Madigan/Cullerton.

  21. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:46 am:

    Louis, Madigan’s poll numbers in the dumpster wouldn’t be news. They’ve always been there.

  22. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:46 am:

    ===But as it was said, 2018 is a lifetime from now, so I’m sure Rauner is not losing any sleep worrying about approval ratings.===

    …except that Rauner is runnin’ Ads tryin’ to be a good at the same time?

    My mocking is solely based on the premise Rauner despises being “un-liked” more than Rauner despises Unions.

    Rauner is the only governor I can think of that refuses to own any decision he makes, rather, Rauner has to find a way to make even a good move (funding schools) more about the boogeymen than owning his own action.

    As a poll, meh, it means zero.

    To the GOP GA running in 2016, a glance at the temperature today, especially after being double-crossed.

    To Rauner? “We have to make them like me, and blame Madigan too.”

    With respect.

  23. - How Ironic - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:46 am:

    What were Madigan/Cullerton polling at before though? I have a feeling they haven’t been polling very high for a very long time.

    Rauner however, continues to drop in the polls. That could be more problematic. In my opinion.

  24. - anon - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:48 am:

    711 likely voters? Uh, okay.

    They need to contact me.

  25. - Arsenal - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:48 am:

    ==Maybe the title to your article should be changed to “poll indicates Rauner, Madigan, Cullerton trouble.”==

    But of course, Madigan and Cullerton don’t have to satisfy a statewide constituency…

    The limitation on this poll is that Rauner’s strategy doesn’t depend on him being popular in his own right, but making his opponents absolutely toxic. Plus, those Kirk numbers cast a pall on the entire poll, if you ask me. But, it’s a data point, it’s information we didn’t have before.

  26. - Federalist - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:48 am:

    Rauner could care less about these polls.

    Check back in three years, and if these are accurate polls, he WILL care. At this point he wants to be a two term governor.

  27. - Arsenal - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:48 am:

    Wait, were the Kirk numbers from the same poll?

  28. - forwhatitsworth - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:52 am:

    No surprise here.

  29. - David Ormsby - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:53 am:

    On Madigan and Cullerton, the poll asked not about their job performance, but whether voters approved/disapproved of them serving as a “check-and-balance” on the governor’s agenda. Different question. They didn’t.

  30. - Sam Weinberg - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:54 am:

    It’s just a poll. And 2018 is political light years away. But as his rating sink even further, as they undoubtedly will if he blows things up, keep one thing in mind: big victories are usually the only things that rescue politicians who are polling in the low 30s or worse.

    Maybe he’ll get that victory. But, as we’ve seen with the past two Governors, a wounded politician’s search for that big win often devolves into a negative-feedback loop of ever more goofy (and worse) stunts and simulacra.

    Given his phony penchant for carhartts and baloney dropped g’s, I know where my money is.

  31. - the old man - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:54 am:

    I do not believe that this governor governs by polls, if he did surely he would have known that right to work was a non-starter in Illinois. Bruce will continue to do what Bruce thinks is the thing to do, right or wrong. Why listen to the people when you have more money than God. Republicans gear up to be the minority party at least 2 more decades.

  32. - Eugene - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:55 am:

    Rauner shouldn’t be confident about his numbers in 2018. Remember that he WILL raise taxes no matter what, and many of his supporters have been misled into thinking the budget standoff is about stopping the Dems from raising taxes. Once he loses the anti-tax card, what has he got? The Turnaround Agenda? Even assuming he gets any of it passed (which is doubtful), union-busting is not popular in this state.

  33. - Kippax Blue - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:55 am:

    @ Louis– do you happen to know Madigan/Cullerton numbers in their respective districts To me, state-wide polling numbers concerning them mean diddilypoo.

  34. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:57 am:

    ===Rauner could care less about these polls.===

    Yes, that’s why a third of his new ad is about pushing up his own numbers.

    Oh… wait.

    OK, well, that’s why he has proposed a real budget that balances.

    Oh… wait.

    Hmm. OK, well, that’s why he signed the education approp bill.

    Oh.. wait.

    Don’t kid yourself.

  35. - Mason born - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:57 am:

    I wonder how much Rauner cares. He obviously doesn’t needto get reelected. If he is the true believer he may not care if he is one and done if he can get his “fixes” implemented.

  36. - muon - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:01 am:

    I have a hard time accepting a poll that claims it is using likely 2016 voters so far in advance of the election. Typically pollsters rely on registered voters until they are a few months ahead of the election. The use of likely voters requires knowledge of what will motivate voters to the polls so that the pollster can screen for that motivation. Until the election is close it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine what that election’s motivating factors will be.

  37. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:01 am:

    The Ads are “benign”, but are about Rauner is good, Madigan is bad, and Rauner sayin’ “Like me”

    Rauner cares to be liked.

  38. - foster brooks - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:01 am:

    “If he needs to run ads year-round, he can do so”

    nobody wants to see his ads year round, nobody

  39. - walker - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:03 am:

    Rich Miller: Let’s put some music to your comment and dance the mockarena.

  40. - MrJM - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:06 am:

    “The Kirk number does not seem possible.”

    Agreed. Migraines would poll better than that.

    – MrJM

  41. - Streator Curmudgeon - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:10 am:

    If Rauner is from the Ronald Reagan School of Politics, he probably believes having the public behind him can shame the opposition into doing his bidding, or at least compromising.

    But this isn’t the 1980s, and he’s not Ronald Reagan.

  42. - Apocalypse Now - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:11 am:

    I recall John Kasish, Governor of Ohio, numbers were in the tank for the first year. Now, he is one of the highest rated Governor’s in the country. Just a little to early to draw any conclusions from a poll, except for those already to burn Rauner at the stake the day after the election.

  43. - Amalia - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:21 am:

    what is it with polling? who is actually good at it now? or is it an outmoded method of assessing opinion? what is the best way to assess opinion now?

  44. - Anonymous - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:27 am:

    Regardless of this poll… if the goal of the ad was to lift Rauners approval then the consultants who put it together failed to follow decades of political polling history that shows comparative does not lift the “good guy’s” numbers. They may make him comparatively more acceptable. But that is different than being liked or approved. Its a basic rule. Anyone who has done campaigns knows this. So maybe Rauner becomes more liked than Madigan. Or in this case less disliked. Big whoop.

    So the basic conclusion I make is that including Rauner in the end of the ad is a waste of time/money. Either go all positive or all negative. Comparative in this situation makes you lose 30 cents on the dollar. A waste of Sam Zell’s hard earned money.

  45. - Federalist - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:30 am:


    Hi again. If you are right then he will start to reverse himself on many aspects of the budget. Great by me!

    Don’t hold your breath!

  46. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:30 am:

    - Apocalpse Now -

    Same with Harry Truman, same with…

    It’s a poll. Rauner will be fine today.

  47. - downstate - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:42 am:

    Soccermom, you’re correct. Ogden and Fry is run by the same Tom Swiss who tried to sneak into a State Rep spot on the West Side of Chicago as a Republican.

    Learned that from Maven Miller’s post sometime last year.

  48. - Louis G Atsaves - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:45 am:

    Rauner is now as unpopular as Madigan and Cullerton? All three are at -11? And that isn’t headline news? Paint me confused here.

  49. - Michael Westen - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:45 am:

    Wasn’t Tom Swiss the white guy who pretended to be black (sort of like Rachel Dolezal) when he ran for Derrick Smith’s State Rep seat? Now he’s pretending to be a pollster?

  50. - downstate - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:45 am:


    Swiss is a Republican who ran in the Democratic primary.

  51. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:46 am:

    === And that isn’t headline news? ===

    You need to re-read the story.

  52. - The Equalizer - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:46 am:

    I wish I would have copyrighted the phrase “Rauner Republican”, because with all the play it will get over the next few years, I’d be rich!

  53. - Bill - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:50 am:

    The still unanswered question about Gov. Rauner is “What does he really, really, really want?” Why did a mega millionaire run for governor besides seeing himself on TV? Answering that question moves the process forward.
    Rauner’s polling is meaningful today only in the context of his gravitas when generating public pressure on the legislature, specifically Speaker Madigan and Senate President Cullerton. I don’t think TV ads get the job done.

  54. - Wordslinger - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:51 am:

    Louis, you are quick on the draw today. Do they have you on a piece rate or something?

  55. - Louis G Atsaves - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 11:54 am:

    @Word, I could never out piece you here! :-)

  56. - Honeybear - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:00 pm:

    Bill, reminds me of Galaxy Quest. “What is it’s motivation?” “It’s a ROCK, IT DOESNT HAVE ANY MOTIVATION!”….”You were never serious about the craft!” Oh, I’m going to have to watch that tonight!

  57. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:08 pm:

    ==Meh, no election for him until 2018==

    Nailed it.

    Gains in the House and Sen would be helpful, but he is a playing a longer game than six months or even two years.

  58. - Ben - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:16 pm:

    Hey Rich,

    Link to the subsequent O&F poll with the Kirk #s?

  59. - Ben Franklin - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:20 pm:

    He’s still Governor for the next 3.5 years…..

  60. - gopower - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:22 pm:

    The common (and often quite severe) problem with such “approve/disapprove” polls is that those who disapprove include both those who do not like what the politician has done and those who are disappointed that he did not do much more.

    In this case, more than a few are disappointed that Rauner has not made more progress yet in reforming Illinois.

  61. - Team Sleep - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:30 pm:

    16.9%?! That can’t be right. Even though Senator Kirk isn’t on Senator Durbin’s level, he’s not exactly a super-polarizing figure, either.

    Isn’t that the same Tom Swiss who “ran” against Speaker Madigan a few years ago?!

  62. - Apocalypse Now - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:36 pm:

    @ OW Thanks for the reminder. In the spring of 1948, Truman’s public approval rating stood at 36%, and the president was nearly universally regarded as incapable of winning the general election. Guess, what? He won the election in 1948.

  63. - Moist von Lipwig - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:40 pm:

    ==the only polling firm which correctly predicted Rauner’s five-point victory margin over Quinn==

    Rauner won by 3.9%. Whoops. Their polling may be fine, but their Googling is atrocious.

  64. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:45 pm:

    - Apocslypse Now -

    I expect Rauner will win, 3 of 5 times.

    I dunno what you think you gained. I made my own point, thanks.

  65. - chiagr - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:48 pm:

    We should stay tuned for more and more polls with the Governor having plummeting numbers! Talk is cheap. He needs to put his shirt sleeves up and with his panel of experts-Produce a balanced budget!! One with CUTS and NEW REVENUE!!! Nothing is gained by business as usual which is what Rauner is doing. If the Dems don’t do it-why doesn’t he???? I am sick of this blame game.

  66. - Wordslinger - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:49 pm:

    Truman, really? Every slam dunk loser since 1948 has trotted out Truman before going down in flames.

    The extraordinary is just that. Don’t count on it.

  67. - low level - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:50 pm:

    The funny part was apparently Swiss didn’t realize that with a name like “Tom Swiss” he wasnt going to make much headway no matter how many slick billboards or mailers he had.

    The “extremely low information” voters turned out to be pretty well informed - and the real “low info” one was the candidate himself.

  68. - Tone - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:54 pm:

    I hate Kirk, but I don’t believe for a second that his approval rating 17%.

  69. - AlabamaShake - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 12:59 pm:

    **Maybe the title to your article should be changed to “poll indicates Rauner, Madigan, Cullerton trouble.”**

    There is a huge difference between them.

    One has to get re-elected in a statewide election. The other two do not.

  70. - Apocalypse Now - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 1:15 pm:

    =I dunno what you think you gained. I made my own point, thanks=
    Wasn’t trying to make any point. Just thanks for confirming Rauner poll numbers, if you believe them, may not look good now, but it’s way to early to draw any conclusions.

  71. - VanillaMan - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 1:35 pm:

    Kasich was unpopular in Ohio because of his anti-union moves. He recovered after voters gave him a beat-down and he responded by telling them that they were correct.

    Kasich is no longer an anti-union governor. Hence poll numbers improved.

  72. - JS Mill - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 1:37 pm:

    =Migraines would poll better than that.= LOL!

    Madigan may be the most unpopular political figure in Illinois history, but what really matters (as someone pointed out) is his popularity in his district. Much different than someone running for state wide office.

    That said I have lost all faith in polls after the last election. Plenty of time for the governor to rebound, and the electorate can be very fickle.

  73. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 1:42 pm:

    - Wordslinger -, apologies. My bad. To clarify;

    I just threw Truman in there, since everyone does… trot Truman out there…

    I said Rauner has a 3 in 5 chance for re-elect. That isn’t Truman odds.

  74. - Formerpol - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 1:43 pm:

    If you could buy futures on Rauner, I would do so now. I will bet right now that he wins re-election. Any takers?

  75. - Precinct Captain - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 2:30 pm:

    ==- anon - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 10:48 am:==

    Take a basic statistics class, they cover sampling.

  76. - Anonymous - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 2:49 pm:

    - Do they have you on a piece rate or something? -


  77. - Sue - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 3:17 pm:

    And this matters why? Rauner will either succeed and see his poll numbers improve or he won’t get done what he set out to do and will forego reelection. Rauner cares about one thing-improving the Stae’s fiscal and employment standing. He could care less what his poll number is 6 months in

  78. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 3:20 pm:

    === Rauner cares about one thing===

    And you know this how?

  79. - Sue - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 3:23 pm:

    Rich-because that is what he ran on and unlike most other politicians he is trying to accomplish what he said he would during the campaign

  80. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 3:30 pm:

    And you know that how?

  81. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 3:31 pm:

    ===Rauner cares about one thing-improving the Stae’s fiscal and employment standing. ===

    “Rauner cares about one thing-dismantling the Unions.”

    This is a fun game.

  82. - Ben - Friday, Jun 26, 15 @ 4:06 pm:

    So…no go on the Kirk polling? Where can that be seen?

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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