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Uh-oh
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller * We’ll discuss other results from a recent PPP poll later today. But, first, check this out…
Not good. I think the high undecideds may be that people are still willing to give the new governor a chance before pronouncing final judgement. In cases like this we often see folks move from “approve” to parking in neutral. * What appears to be driving those negative numbers are high disapproval ratings from Democrats in a Democrat-leading state. If there’s any good news for the governor here, it’s that he is still barely holding on among indies, whites and older voters…
* But moderates don’t like him much and neither do women…
Discuss. …Adding… People, you gotta forget about the 2018 election. This poll is about the governor’s ability to lead. He repeatedly claims to have the people on his side against those bad old “machine” Democrats. That’s obviously not true. I highly doubt the public is with the Democrats, either. It is, as I suggested the other day, “a pox on both your houses” sort of dealio, which is probably the best thing the Dems can hope for right now. Drag him down with them. The worse Rauner’s numbers get, the more pressure he’ll get from within his party to finally drop his silly demands and cut a deal. Maybe he won’t care about his poll results, but Republican legislators will.
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- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:48 am:
Can you say “one-termer”? Sure, you can.
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:48 am:
Just a sham survey from a corrupt Madigan-Influenced polling firm…
- The Captain - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:50 am:
He’s underwater with everyone under 65 years old, but among voters over 65 he’s at 48-41. I have no theory to explain this.
- Man with a plan - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:52 am:
Incomplete poll. Totally leaves out the huge support he has from voters who dislike the disabled, autistic, poor and middle class. And the flannel bloc.
- Jack Stephens - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:52 am:
@public:
Based on your own personal contact with the polling organization (their contact info is listed)….please describe what you disagree with AND why.
Thank!
- 99%er - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:53 am:
Not above 50% in any group. I would say yes losing the battle. Madigan only needs to be liked by his district. A losing formula for Rauner.
- Pacman - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:53 am:
Can’t imagine the numbers are much different for the other team
- Gary - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:53 am:
Think if his numbers are in this realm 2 years from now—would anyone in the GOP be able to tell him not to run?
Then again, Quinn’s approval rating was at least this poor ahead of 10 and 14, and he ran anyway.
- Curious Georgina - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:53 am:
Because….Madigan.
- walker - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:54 am:
Not surprised. Everybody’s looking bad.
No way a honeymoon could sustain him.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:54 am:
So, what was the point of that $2 million ad buy, again?
He’s a long way from an election.
But that “women” number is a monster.
- Wallinger Dickus - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:55 am:
Jack –
Methinks PublicServant is being snarky.
- ZC - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:56 am:
If you look at the last five presidential elections or so as a rubric, so not always including Obama, the pattern is pretty clear: IL is about 5% more Democratic than Wisconsin, statewide.
That’s not ginormous but if Scott Walker had faced IL demographics he’d have been recalled long ago.
So you just can’t govern IL like Scott Walker. Especially when you don’t even control the legislature. Maybe then you could try a lightning strike to kneecap organized labor , and hope to chip a few percentage pts off the statewide avg. But instead Rauner seems to have settled into a siege mode. But beware the fury of a patient Madigan.
- Nope, Nope, Nope - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:57 am:
==would anyone in the GOP be able to tell him not to run?==
Not one single chance. The Illinois Republican Party is a wholey owned subsidiary of Bruce Rauner. They have all locked arms and are prepared to walk off the cliff together.
- Mama - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:58 am:
Rauner has finally shown the public what he stands for. Therefore, I am not surprised people have pulled away from him.
- walker - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:58 am:
Jack S: breathe easy. Public’s comment was snarky humor.
- DuPage - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:58 am:
It seems what is important to Rauner is approval from 100% of the 1%. These are the people he represents.
- Reo Symes, M.D. - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:59 am:
This shows what happens when you’re a blue state governor who plays to the Wall Street Journal and Chicago Tribune editorial boards.
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:01 am:
He better not cut services to retirees…
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:01 am:
All this poll does is show that Speaker Madigan and the legislators he controls do not like Rauner. Right?
In all seriousness… Rauner’s in big, big, big trouble if he doesn’t start doing something two months ago. The die has been cast, not sure how Rauner pulls out of this.
- AC - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:01 am:
Rauner, more than anything, sold voters on his successful track record in private industry. I don’t think it’s his political views that are hurting him as much as his lack of visible results.
- Stones - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:02 am:
When government doesn’t function everyone looks bad. I’m sure the numbers are terrible for everyone.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:02 am:
– would anyone in the GOP be able to tell him not to run–
Sure, the great Ron Gidwitz. And then five minutes later he would endorse him.
The real answer, of course, is that it’s way too far away and “no.”
Rauner and his network are the bank. They’re the ones who knock.
- Hamlet's Ghost - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:02 am:
If November 2016 sees a faceoff between Hillary Clinton and “The Donald” - - - MJM & Cullerton might gain seats in the General Assembly.
- IllinoisBoi - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:02 am:
People just love it when billionaires tell them that they make too much money.
- Bogey Golfer - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:03 am:
Not all that surprising. Now he’s in and he intends to push his agenda regardless of popularity with the GA or the public. And if he doesn’t get re-elected…….
- Triple fat - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:04 am:
Polls we don’t need no stinking polls…
But really Walker I sincerely believe the speaker is improving his image among voters. Agree or disagree this is what I truly believe… And you’re going to have to take my word for this but until this crisis I didn’t have a positive opinion of MJM.
- Anon - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:04 am:
The real question for me is who in the Democratic Party would consider taking him on in 2018? If his numbers stay the same or worsen, he could be considered vulnerable. But with all that money he will do serious damage to whoever challenges him. What democrat is willing to put his/her reputation on the line to take this guy on? What donors are going to get behind the democrat knowing they will draw the ire of a vengeful governor Rauner? I feel like Illinois has been taken hostage. Scary.
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:05 am:
==Can’t imagine the numbers are much different for the other team ==
The “other team” is made up of individual GA members who only need to be popular in their districts. Madigan is the team leader, sort of, but he allows (sometimes requires) his members to vote against him based on their district. Will team leader Rauner do the same for his members? Not so far…
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:06 am:
Somebody has to be the bad guy and that’s the Governor. The numbers don’t lie and he inherited the can that was kicked into the corner with nowhere to go.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:08 am:
Pot, the governor did require his team to vote against him on the K-12 budget.
I’m sure there was a very good strategic reason for that.
- How Ironic - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:08 am:
@ Anon - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:04 am:
“The real question for me is who in the Democratic Party would consider taking him on in 2018.”
At this point, I think Quinn could probably win with a comfortable margin. He could run on a platform of “See what you get when you don’t stick with what you know?”
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:08 am:
===Can you say “one-termer”? Sure, you can.===
Let’s look at this as a snapshot, as all polls are. We’re 7 months in. 3 years plus is forever and a day in politics.
To the Post,
Two things stick out, for me, maybe not anyone else;
1) The “mirrored” D/R Approval Rating.
Looking at the +/- of Republicans and the Reciprocal for Democrats, there seems to be a clearer polarizing that Rauner has in its mirrored image. The party lines seem, in this snapshot, mirroring the line(s) in the sand both Madigan and Rauner are willing to have. While Rauner is “holding” the “Indies”, the positives need to escalate with Indies, and also with Democrats if Rauner himself doesn’t want to be the “poster” Rauner wants Madigan to be to Republicsns.
2) Women
“Why?” The women numbers are below the Upside Down numbers, and moves like the Tollway not having any women, and while having a woman Lt. Governor, the female voters are more skeptical in their approval, in the snapshot, then the men, and suburban women will be the target for GA races Rauner will want to win. Rauner becomes/continues to be polarizing, it very well may be difficult to separate Rauner from the GOP, as the GOP GA politicos hope their $100 million will make it difficult for Dems to separate themselves from MJM.
If the polarizing bleeds into the women subgroup at a steeper rate than the overall favorable, and throw in a Presidential voters’ universe, it’s a concern. Today.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:08 am:
Reagan approval, January1983 - 35%
Clinton approval, May 1993 - 37%
Bush Sr Approval, February 1991 - 89%
Obama approval, October 2011 - 38%
All clear indicators of their eventual chances of reelection
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:09 am:
1) I firmly believe that any IL Governor would be similarly unpopular right now.
2) That being said, Rauner’s entire strategy is “make the GA too scared of me to oppose me”. 37% isn’t very fearsome.
3) But- money.
4) He can totally still win re-election, even if his numbers are in the same spot in 2018.
- LINK - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:09 am:
Dupage.
Let me add to what you said and hopefully someone can refresh my memory but didn’t Rauner say he didn’t care about being popular - even though it seems that he hasn’t taken the heat well at times, with the exception of not caring about state employees?
- anon - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:09 am:
And Bruce won’t lose a minute of sleep tonight over this poll.
- Jake From Elwood - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:09 am:
Too bad the PPP would rather ask questions about baseball than running a poll for popular opinoin of Mike Madigan. It would be interesting to see how his numbers would compare to Rauner’s at this time. I guess they would be similarly poor, if not worse.
And 7% of the electorate still favor Aaron Schock!
- thunderspirit - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:11 am:
== Rauner, more than anything, sold voters on his successful track record in private industry. I don’t think it’s his political views that are hurting him as much as his lack of visible results. ==
The lack of visible results is certainly a significant contributing factor. Likewise, popularity is not always directly proportional to success.
That said, so far Bruce Rauner has shown little more than the ability to beat Pat Quinn in an election. It’s still fairly early, but he’s going to need something else upon which to hang his hat soon or he’ll be just as popular as his predecessor in the Governor’s mansion.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:13 am:
Like it or not - and my guess is that he could care less - Governor Rauner is the face of Illinois. Even though Speaker Madigan and President Cullerton have super majorities and wield plenty of power, Governor Rauner is “the man”. When statewide and national media outlets report on Illinois issues - whether it be natural disasters or budget issues or a change in unemployment figures - Governor Rauner and his staff are the people the press turns to for info and statements. So that is likely part of the reason why the figurative “honeymoon” is over. And the longer the budget impasse dredges on, the worse his numbers will be. I will be interested to see his numbers around the start of veto session.
- Mouthy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:14 am:
I don’t reelection is on his mind. IMO this is a one shot deal and he’s gonna go for broke..
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:14 am:
The $20 million in the 20 races…
If it’s about the polarizing and being even more upside down with women overall, the 20 races in micro will need to be more hand to hand combat than cookie cutter ads.
It’s a consideration the GOP GA political shops should really look at.
- Reality check - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:15 am:
Pity we don’t have a survey showing Madigan’s numbers. But then agan….why would the dems allow that?
- walker - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:16 am:
If only seniors voted more than young adults.
- Snucka - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:16 am:
As we saw in 2010, approval ratings don’t necessarily equate to re-election chances. In fact, other than Duckworth, every public figure in this poll has a negative approval rating.
People may tell pollsters that they don’t like Rauner, but he will again have unlimited cash in 2018. It will be up to the Illinois Democratic Party to choose a candidate who can get the base out to the polls while still appealing to independents as a leader who can get things done.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:17 am:
Walker - your comment reminded me of the Futurama episode when Robot Nixon won after 6% of the public voted. Fry and Leela remembered that they forgot to vote after the results were announced. HA!
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:18 am:
At the end of the day…. This is Illinois
The voters have obtained what they asked for. Lots of union state employees voted for rauner….and minorities hoping he as going to bring economic investment to their cmmunities…. Reap what you sow and all that…
THIS is ILLINOIS
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:18 am:
I think, for what the governor has done, said, hasn’t done, and his general demeanor, he is polling quite well. If things continue on the path they are on right now, you will see a trend… the slow dissolving of support from all groups. A poll like this with relatively soft numbers for the governor, will not deter said governor in the least.
- D.P.Gumby - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:18 am:
Irony is that Madigan will win more from the legislative pay cut repeal than will Brucie. It will only reinforce these divisions.
- How Ironic - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:19 am:
@- Reality check
“Pity we don’t have a survey showing Madigan’s numbers. But then agan….why would the dems allow that?”
His numbers are probably lower, everyone knows it. And guess what? He’s not the Gov. Too bad the Gov hasn’t figured out how to actually, you know govern?
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:21 am:
Reality Check, that’s quite an ironic handle you have. The Victim Force is strong in this one.
How, exactly, could Dems “not allow” an independent poll on Madigan’s approval ratings?
By the way, his ratings are in the dumpster, as published polls have shown for some time.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:22 am:
All talking about Rauner’s money… it doesn’t matter if no one likes you.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:22 am:
It’s about where one should expect it to be. Best data here is to work a little harder with women. Social services is a big issue on that side of the gender equation. There’s been a lot said (justifiably) about the difficulties being faced in that area.
It’s a marathon, not a sprint. In a four year term, you dispense the toughest medicine in year one. This is about where one would expect things to be.
- walker - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:23 am:
==Pity we don’t have a survey showing Madigan’s numbers. But then agan….why would the dems allow that?==
Them Dems sure are powerful! LOL
- Sam Weinberg - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:23 am:
For those citing polling, it isn’t that Rauner can’t (or even won’t likely be) re-elected in 2018.
It’s that he’s going to have to become a heck of a lot less polarizing to do so. In other words, he’s going to have to stop holding the most vulnerable in society hostage in order to get union-busting legislation passed.
Given the last 6 months, it’s hard to see him doing that. So it’s hard to see these number improving.
- Reality check - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:24 am:
Ironic -
I bet MMadigan’s numbers are lower. Which is why the results by a left-leaning poster will likely not see the light of day!
- Michael Westen - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:24 am:
We’ve had many polls showing Madigan’s unpopularity for the last ten years. All have proven irrelevant. He will never be on the ballot statewide. GOP has made “Fire Madigan” their statewide mantra at least twice to disastrous results. To quote Hillary “What difference does it make” what Madigan’s statewide approval number is.
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:24 am:
=== you dispense the toughest medicine in year one. ===
A guy, the only thing Rauner has dispensed is double-talk.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:25 am:
A looong way to go for the governor. I do not think these numbers mean much if anything to him. And, they can turn around quickly or go further south.
The only place it has any meaning at all is for the ILGA. Here he has less time to rebound if the governor can actually hurt members of the GOP that will run again in less than two years. But, even that is a long time in politics.
Polling of this type just does not seem terribly important or meaningful right now.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:25 am:
==It’s a marathon, not a sprint. In a four year term, you dispense the toughest medicine in year one. This is about where one would expect things to be.==
So you sprint the first mile, jog the second mile, walk the third mile, and drive your trashcan van the fourth mile? Typically, you would start by building coalitions to pass your agenda, not alienate everyone to ensure there will never be any coalitions built.
- Century Club - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:25 am:
Unfortunately, I think this is the kind of poll that will just see both sides dig in deeper. Either side can look at this poll and say that they’re doing what their base (and half of the independents) wants. Rauner said during the campaign there was going to be turmoil. In 3 years, if the budget is stable (at least by his & the Trib’s standards), he wins re-election by a landslide.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:28 am:
Rauner never had this older, independent / GOP leaning retiree’s vote. And I’m hearing a lot of buyer’s remorse among my contemporaries (60 - 69 range) who did vote for Rauner.
Rauner’s in trouble, especially considering the amount of ads / money that has been poured into knocking down MJM and propping up Rauner’s image. I suspect the only reason his numbers are not lower is some people are still waiting for the promised results.
As I’ve said before, people thought they were voting for a competent administrator (like previous GOP Governors) and instead they got an anti-union ideologue who doesn’t appear to know the difference between business where you can order things done and government where you have to work within the political and legal constraints of laws and budgets. Robber barons were envied, not liked, at the beginning of the last century … and it appears the public is starting to relearn that today.
- Gooner - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:29 am:
What is interesting is that he’s squandered his approval with nothing to show now or in the future.
He’s not going to pass his union busting agenda, yet his numbers are falling for it.
If his numbers were down because he signed a budget that would improve the state in the long term (even if causing pain now) it would make sense. There would be something he could point to in two years.
Unfortunately for him, he’s got nothing to show for it and will not have anything to show for it in the future.
- Cheswick - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:31 am:
I can’t help but think that a lot of people who had high hopes for a new way of doing things have had their hopes dashed by Rauner.
He missed the mark right out of the gate starting with before he got sworn in. I think he thought he could be a hard-nosed CEO (something he knew a lot about) to get his way and the governing thing (something he knew nothing about) would fall into place. And now people are unhappy.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:34 am:
Two observations:
1. Seniors. Even with Homestead Exemption and Circuit Breaker, seniors on fixed incomes don’t want to see their property taxes go up. They may believe Rauner can hold the line on them. Also, the “Shakin’ up Springfield” ads seemed to hit home with them; they’re tired of business as usual.
2. Women. Women tend to be more compassionate than men. As the TV stories on nonprofits closing increase, along with people suffering from budget cuts, disapproval from women will probably climb even higher.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:34 am:
Hmmmmmm. 62% favor Chicago baseball teams. So, basically downstate wasnt polled!
- SAP - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:35 am:
The Governor is still in his rookie year and making rookie mistakes. The 2016 elections will be fascinating just to see whether money will trump politics. If the GOP does not pick up seats, it will be interesting to see whether the Governor pivots on policy to try to shore up his popularity.
- Juvenal - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:36 am:
If you think these poll numbers are bad for Rauner, just wait, they will get much, much worse.
If you think those approval numbers with the GOP faithful are gonna hold when he signs a tax increase, talk to folks from the Ryan administration.
Walker:
In a presidential election year, there are roughly 1 million more ballots cast by Illinois voters under the age of 30 than over the age of 65. Presumably, that is fixed into the polling’s sampling.
- Federalist - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:36 am:
Breaks down along typical race/sex lines.
Only surprise is that Independents are slightly tilted in his favor.
- Federalist - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:40 am:
- Man with a plan - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:52 am:
Incomplete poll. Totally leaves out the huge support he has from voters who dislike the disabled, autistic, poor and middle class. And the flannel bloc.
Explain what specific flaws that were in this poll that discounted the ‘groups’ you mentioned.
- dawn - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:41 am:
You guys, Bernie Sanders is beating all of the republican candidates in head to heads. Someone needs to sit Rauner down and explain to him that his turn around agenda isnt going to pass!!!
- Mason born - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:41 am:
IMO the budget mess is killing him the most. What I hear most people say is just sit down and get it done. I think it’s hurting both sides however most folks seem to blame MJM and Rauner and not their local rep/sen. Until MJM’s numbers are underwater in his district people blaming him and not his members is a complete success.
To me the takeaway from this for the governor is time is rapidly approaching to find some wins and end this fiasco. The leverage he thought he had is biting him. One of the biggest complaint on Quinn was being an ineffective leader if this thing goes much longer Bruce is going to make Quinn look like Patton.
- Fireman - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:43 am:
- Anonymous @ 10:08 am -
Yes, polling numbers can twist and turn during any given 4-year term.
Would love to see what Quinn, Blago, Ryan, Edgar numbers were like during their first year in office.
- burbanite - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:44 am:
Federalist, pretty sure Man with a Plan was being snarky.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:45 am:
===The worse Rauner’s numbers get, the more pressure he’ll get from within his party to finally drop his silly demands and cut a deal. Maybe he won’t care about his poll results, but Republican legislators will.===
Will Rauner “listen”, or will Rauner, like with the controlling of the colored voting buttons, be more concerned with “his” wants, as opposed to the GOP GA’s “needs”.
Great question to the 67… Is it more about the $1 million a race, guaranteed, or the personal Rauner polling numbers sinking the Agenda, leading to the GOP GA “U-Turning” on Rauner, no matter the monies, or Rauner admitting… “I’m not helping”
This poll sets the Agenda front and center, not about it “points” but the Rauner popularity “points”
- wrangler - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:45 am:
We see what Governor Rauner poll numbers are. Wonder what MJM poll numbers are in his district? My point is the state wide voters can’t fire MJM. But we sure can fire Rauner. My advice get to leadin!!
- nixit71 - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:46 am:
There has never been a more relevant “survey of 931 Illinois voters” than this one.
- walker - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:47 am:
Juvenal: Thank you for the info on voting demos in Illinois. Didn’t know the under 30’s are so strong.
The future’s so bright, we’ve got to wear shades.
- Snucka - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:50 am:
Understand this: It matters not one bit what Michael Madigan’s statewide approval rating is. He does not have power because a majority of Illinois voters elected him. He has power because Illinois voters elected Democratic legislators in 60% of House districts, and those legislators then elected him Speaker. That’s the only poll that matters when it comes to MJM. Just because bashing him is easy doesn’t mean that it’s effective in any way.
- The Dude Abides - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:52 am:
I actually kind of expected the numbers to be slightly worse than they are but they are poor. The Independents are sticking with him ever so slightly but as Rich said some have not run out of patience just yet but if the current situation drags on another couple of months he will lose even more support. The majority of every age group under 65 disapprove and his numbers with women are bad. If I was a Rauner advisor I would suggest that he drop the anti union agenda for now and move on and make a deal concentrating on a mix of budget cuts and increased revenue. It is very hard to govern when a solid majority of voters oppose you. If the numbers continue to head South on the Governor the pressure will mount on GOP members in the legislature. There is the likelihood of a negative coattail effect on his members in the next election if they continue to hang with him.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:52 am:
===walker - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:47 am:
Juvenal: Thank you for the info on voting demos in Illinois. Didn’t know the under 30’s are so strong.
The future’s so bright, we’ve got to wear shades.====
True dat Walk. Not to mention the galvanizing force of Barack Obama among younger voters…will not be on the ticket this time around. Hillary ain’t Bill. Hillary ain’t Barack.
- Reality Check - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:54 am:
This may be obvious, but the person hijacking my handle at 10:15 and 10:34 is a fake.
Get your own name, dude.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:56 am:
Juvenal - that’s great, but what about non-presidential years?! That’s what matters here. 2018 will feature no statewide federal elections, so it will be all Rauner at the top of the ticket. And then we are also likely to have a scrum for Jesse White’s seat, so that will be another big money contest that could involve Rauner’s and his pals’s cash. The national GOP will also aim to make strides in the Congressional elections, so there will likely be coordinated efforts there as well.
I’m not saying that stat is trivial, but that’s what kinda validated Mayor Daley’s concern with having the gubernatorial and statewide elections in the even but non-presidential years.
- burbanite - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:56 am:
Can’t catch his ads if you don’t have electric. Just sayin’.
- ZC - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:00 am:
“Independents” today clearly has some Republican leanings because it’s a slightly disproportionate check off for conservative voters who are fed up with what they see as establishment GOP. Independents for Trump, etc.
In terms of the much-sought “center”, which is a dubious category but if you have to look, I think “moderate” is the better category.
- How Ironic - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:01 am:
@ Reality check (or whomever this is)- @ 10:24 am:
“Ironic -
I bet MMadigan’s numbers are lower. Which is why the results by a left-leaning poster will likely not see the light of day!”
You still don’t get it. MJM IS lower. And so what? His district loves him enough to vote him in again and again. His members respect him, and know that if nothing else he has their back for the really tough votes.
What does Rauner have? None of that. He is polling terribly all over the state. Why is that relevant? Because represents the whole state. And his members are starting to see that he doesn’t give one iota about covering their backs (think telling them to vote no on the education bill, then signing it).
WE all know MJM is polling in the gutter. But it’s irrelevant to the discussion. He only has to win 1 district.
- Give Me A Break - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:01 am:
A guy: Hillary may not be Bill, but she is a female and Rauner’s numbers with that demographic don’t look too hot.
- Anon - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:04 am:
I’m loving is thread! The “Rauner is making Quinn look like Patton” made me laugh so hard milk came out of my nose.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:05 am:
TS, in tne UIC oral history project, Richard J is quoted as saying that with the move to off-presidential elections the Dems wouldn’t elect a governor for “20 years.”
Turned out, 26.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:07 am:
My governor promised not to tax seniors I love him taxes frozen anyway baby boomers rule
- Pete - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:08 am:
How do you validate a survey that has 101% of somewhat conservatives in their ideological breakout?
- All the answers - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:09 am:
After spending millions to win, Rauner only beat the very unpopular Pat Quinn by a small margin. Money clearly isn’t everything.
- Big Mouth - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:10 am:
Rich, why to you continue to peddle this stuff. PPP has too many holes to be considered reliable.
See below from Nate Cohn.
And it’s also possible that PPP would still be a decent pollster if it used a more defensible approach. But PPP’s opacity and flexibility goes too far. In employing amateurish weighting techniques, withholding controversial methodological details, or deleting questions to avoid scrutiny, the firm does not inspire trust. We need pollsters taking representative samples with a rigorous and dependable methodology. Unfortunately, that’s not PPP.
Follow Nate Cohn on twitter: @Nate_Cohn
- paddyrollingstone - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:13 am:
- Man with a plan - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 9:52 am:
Incomplete poll. Totally leaves out the huge support he has from voters who dislike the disabled, autistic, poor and middle class. And the flannel bloc.
For the Win
- Southern Illinois Hoopdee - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:14 am:
I think this thread is remarkable, how everyone is admitting that Madigan is the true power here, yet he only needs to win one district.
How would Madigan be handling things if he were actually the governor?
- nixit71 - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:14 am:
==Bruce is going to make Quinn look like Patton==
Do you mean Dick Van Patten? Because I do see a resemblance.
- Mouthy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:17 am:
- Big Mouth - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:10 am:
You made plenty of accusations but produced zero examples to back them up. Got any?
- Wensicia - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:18 am:
People are tired of all the negative back and forth led by a governor with zero results on getting anything done. The insecurity felt by many concerning their jobs and services is increasing daily. I think most people dislike political campaigns; they’re happy when the election is over and their elected officials get to work. But, Rauner is still in campaign mode and seems to be more focused on next year than what needs to be done now.
Enough.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:20 am:
===How would Madigan be handling things if he were actually the governor?===
Why ask such a sophomoric question? He isn’t the governor. He’s the speaker.
- salavador dali - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:26 am:
I just don’t think Rauner is looking for a second term, and is not really interested in following polling trends. I suspect he feels that his sole purpose in life at this point is to attempt to correct the financial morass of this state and he is going to solve it by addressing the structural problems which he perceives is the underlying cause. This is what is so scary to the entrenched special interests…he is impervious to the typical political pressures and influences.
Many other Republican pols are definitely influenced by the typical political pressures, but I would guess Rauner would see these Republicans as part of the problem as well, and would not be much affected by their perspective.
Rauner’s unique perspective (financially and philosophically) combined with potentially cataclysmic financial situations looming could make things very interesting in this state, and could lead to actual fundamental change in the power structure of this state, like it or not.
Or everything could just be the same.
- salavador dali - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:32 am:
I don’t think Rauner is in campaigning mode for himself…..that is where many people I think are misinterpreting the agenda. Rauner is campaigning for a massive structural power change in this state, whether one agrees with him or not. The interesting thing is he believes he is doing this for altruistic reasons….because it is for “the good of the state.” It can more challenging for the opposition to alter the course of folks like this, particularly when they are well funded.
His opponents clearly don’t see him as altruistic, but when one is operating from the altruistic perspective, “a true believer” in certain reforms, I’m not sure the typical opponent opposition is as effective.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:32 am:
@RNUG- Normally I think you have your thumb on the pulse very well. And I concede the fact that I am not in your age/social group or particular locale, but I am not hearing what you are from your contemporaries. What I hear, from that group in particular, is still staunch support for the governor. Again, my sample is much smaller than yours.
Mr personally, I really hoped for a Dillard primary win. I thought he had the right qualities for the job and I still think he would have beaten Quinn by 10 percentage points.
Rauner has turned out to be exactly what he portrayed him self to be (depending on where you were at) in the primary. A rabidly anti-union pro-corporate ideologue. Highly divisive.
I fear that the long run will favor Rauner in that he will wear down the opposition, including moderate republicans and conservative democrats. The lack of their moderating influence would be destructive.
He has the money for it. Does he have the interest and/or patience? It is for these reasons and more that I just don’t see much value in polls right now. The biggest threat to his plan is weather or not he negatively impacts the ILGOP’s ability (or friendly democratic)to pick up seats in the ILGA.
Like Walker he needs that power to fully implement his plan.
- Liberty - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:35 am:
==RNUG - Rauner never had this older, independent / GOP leaning retiree’s vote. And I’m hearing a lot of buyer’s remorse among my contemporaries (60 - 69 range) who did vote for Rauner.==
Ditto- Voters have no idea who they elected. Rauner was never a manager of businesses.
- SAP - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:37 am:
==Maybe he won’t care about his poll results, but Republican legislators will== Agreed, but can they convince the Governor to desour and sweeten on the class warfare? Pre-Rauner, many had little to worry about during the primary, at least. Now it is shaping up as represent your district or face a well-funded primary opponent.
- SAP - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:39 am:
How low do the Governor’s numbers have to get before GOP legislators abandon him?
- walker - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:41 am:
salvador dali: Let’s just for argument’s sake, take all that you say about the state and Rauner to be true. And let’s assume he fully believes in his Turnaround agenda, and has no agenda beyond a better Illinois.
What would you do, if you were in Rauner’s spot, to better achieve his agenda?
That could provide a fair, non-partisan critique.
- Michael Westen - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:42 am:
Waiting for Goldberg to say, “You have under represented billionaires. Until you correct this oversight, your sample falls outside the parameters of your sham poll.”
- Macado - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:04 pm:
Where are the Republicans with there budget?
- burbanite - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:27 pm:
I believe your smaller local elections are determined by the ground game. Unions produce very skilled and enthusiastic walkers. Unions and Trial Lawyers can also generate signficant funds when need be. I wouldn’t count on Rauner’s money winning him the GA in a future electon if he continues insisting on his turnaround agenda. There can be true structural reforms without destroying Unions and taking out the most vulnerable in our society. I think reducing those “superstar” salaries and perks and reducing the number of “superstars” would be a good start. I have always found the job title “consultant” amusing.
- vole - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:29 pm:
Man, what is there left to say about this? Nothing intelligent comes to mind.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:35 pm:
Word - yep, I remember that from the times Rich has posted its reference in both his subscriber edition and on his blog.
- Norseman - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:39 pm:
I’d love to celebrate this information, but it is really a small blip on the political radar screen that applies to today’s thoughts. It would be more telling if there were district numbers. Rauner’s purchased may starting thinking for themselves if the local numbers showed the same trends.
AND, for all the folks talking about one-term get a grip. This guy has the money to buy himself a second term. The important battles will occur in the districts. If he can purchase enough seats, then Illinois becomes another victim of the elite.
- Juvenal - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:44 pm:
Team Sleep:
See Rich’s update, but I wasn’t speaking to any electoral outcome, only the misperception that there is some sort of political interest in skewing public policy toward senior citizens or that the views of those under 30 don’t matter because they don’t vote.
They should matter because they are Illinoisans, but they actually do vote as well.
- Anon221 - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:57 pm:
He may have the money to buy a second term, and bring in some willing to trust he will “support” them if they follow lock-step. But, how much destruction is he willing to allow to pile up along the way? It’s doubtful he will get much as his agenda within the next few months, then there are the multiple levels of court proceedings, layoffs, business closings, etc.. If he creates the Gordian knot, will he untie it himself, or force the people of Illinois face a damaging cut(s)?
- Anonymous Redux - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 1:01 pm:
Money clearly isn’t everything. - All the answers
Money can’t buy you love…and money can’t buy political allegiance…but…The question is, ” Can it rent some”?
Is it nearing the time for another check…yet?
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 1:32 pm:
Rauner has clearly shown that he doesn’t understand how government works. His excuses and finger pointing no longer work.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 2:30 pm:
- JS Mill - @ 11:32 am:
I would have been happy to vote for Dillard in the general; I did in the primary. In the general I ended up voting for Quinn, the first time I’ve marked a D in the Gov race for over 40 years.
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 2:40 pm:
==It is, as I suggested the other day, “a pox on both your houses” sort of dealio==
What Rich said.
The gamble, ultimately, is whether or not people are sufficiently tired of the state Illinois has reached. If they are sufficiently tired, they will side with Rauner or at least remain undecided through the gridlock and until he has a chance to see his ideas implemented. To them, gridlock is better than Madigan and crew running roughshod over the state. Those who are not sufficiently tired of the state of the state are firmly in the ==disapprove== column and likely have been since near election day.
- DuPage Don - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 3:22 pm:
All kidding aside, to be only -6 on approval rating is much better than I would have predicted. Rauner is sure to go down in approval much more than that before this is a all over with and has factored his unpopularity into the equation long before he was sworn in.
- Federalist - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 4:07 pm:
All of this stuff about Rauners success/lack and his plans for re-election are so conjectural as to mean nothing at this point.
People get sick and tired of ideologues like Rauner after a while with ideologues However. the same goes for Madigan and his party.
Raunr will do exactly as he pleases until it he wins or he is thwarted so bad that even he can see the handwriting on the wall. If he thinks he is making ‘progress’ he will run again.
Madigan has the advantage that he will be elected until he is dead (an maybe after that if no one questions the death certificate.) But Rauner can stall him out as the Governor’s power in this state in nothing to sneeze at.
I wish they would both go away but I doubt if I will get my wishes and I do not yet see a solid trend as to how this will work out.
- Democalypse Now - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 4:32 pm:
82% of eligible voters chose not to vote for this loser. What possible validity can any approval ratings have? The guy is a corporate tool and nothing more.
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 4:35 pm:
==Hillary ain’t Bill. Hillary ain’t Barack.==
Hillary is also upside down in that poll.
45% favorable, 47% unfavorable, 8% undecided.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 4:47 pm:
Mother Teresa would be upside down in a poll if she were a candidate for public office right now. This poll says more about an exhausted and frustrated electorate more than anything else.
- Norseman - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 4:55 pm:
=== Mother Teresa would be upside down in a poll if she were a candidate for public office right now. This poll says more about an exhausted and frustrated electorate more than anything else. ===
I can’t conceive of Mother Theresa going around and calling people corrupt and casting aspersions on the integrity of a host of folks. But then again, you’re right because I suspect the Raunerites would be the first to trash her for wanting to fund services to the needy.
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 5:27 pm:
==I can’t conceive of Mother Theresa going around and calling people corrupt and casting aspersions on the integrity of a host of folks==
Or deleting emails and so on.
The electorate does seem exhausted, and maybe they should be.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 5:29 pm:
– Mother Theresa would be upside down in a poll if she were a candidate for public office right now.–
Spin yourself silly guy.
First off, it would be swell if fhe governor and his acolytes would realize that he is no longer a candidate for public office and wont be for a very long time.
Was JBT under water? Is Jesse White, Lisa Madigan, Preckwinkle, Durbin?
Last I saw even Emanuel was above water by a couple of points.
The governor had very good reasons for hiding his true agenda during the general election campaign, and they are reflected in his job approval rating today.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 8:04 pm:
- A Guy -,
Comparing a woman awaiting Canonnization to the Governor, to make a point?
Grasping.
- Lynn S, - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:54 pm:
@ Anon - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:04 am:
The real question for me is who in the Democratic Party would consider taking him on in 2018?=========
I’m sure there’s a few ambitious Dems who would be willing to give this a shot. Andy Manar is one who immediately comes to mind (not that I’m an Andy fan, but after having had the misfortune of meeting him, I think Andy’s ego is that oversized).
If his numbers stay the same or worsen, he could be considered vulnerable.===========
Rauner’s probably vulnerable now, but the election isn’t until Nov. 2018.
But with all that money he will do serious damage to whoever challenges him.========
Depends on several factors: How much will BVR blow trying to win (buy) General Assembly seats in 2016? (He spent almost $50 for every vote he got in 2014, and he’s already said he will spend $20 million in an attempt to win 20 seats in 2016.) How much will unions and special interest groups spend on anti-BVR ads? How low will BVR’s poll numbers be, and how much can the challenger raise from “Joe Public” donors, i.e. the small donors who gave so much to Barack Obama in 2008? How many folks will be willing and able to walk for the Dem candidate, because everyone here knows that campaigns are not won on social media or advertising; they’re won by folks willing to go door-to-door, asking other folks to vote for that person.
What democrat is willing to put his/her reputation on the line to take this guy on?======= See the response to #1 above.
What donors are going to get behind the democrat knowing they will draw the ire of a vengeful governor Rauner?========== I suspect there are Dems out there who are confident they are insulated enough from BVR, and there are folks who are willing to donate to both parties to hedge their bets. They’ll just make sure the check to BVR–assuming he runs again, and he’s hasn’t yet said he would–gets dropped in the mail 15 minutes before the check to the other guy.
I feel like Illinois has been taken hostage. Scary.=========== Bruce is trying, but he’s operating like the kidnappers in “The Ransom of Red Chief”, and his “superstar” staffers are the gang who couldn’t shoot (or research) straight.
- Lynn S, - Thursday, Jul 30, 15 @ 1:26 am:
@- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:09 am:
4) He can totally still win re-election, even if his numbers are in the same spot in 2018=========
How? I think the union voters who went for BVR the first time won’t do it again (they’ve seen his proposal to AFSCME, and learned their lesson), and everyone else who voted for Quinn in 2014 will vote for the Dem candidate–whomever it will be in 2018–unless that candidate’s a complete, utter, and total failure and incompetent. Not convinced BVR’s got a path…
- Lynn S, - Thursday, Jul 30, 15 @ 1:37 am:
@ Mason born - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:41 am:
One of the biggest complaint on Quinn was being an ineffective leader if this thing goes much longer Bruce is going to make Quinn look like Patton.=====
The image of Pat Quinn as General Patton is laugh out loud funny, but you’re absolutely true about this!