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Friday, Aug 28, 2015

* Press release…

The Illinois House is expected to vote next week to override a bill that Gov. Bruce Rauner vetoed, Senate Bill 1229. This bill would strip Rauner’s ability to bargain with the government union representing almost all state workers, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, or AFSCME. Instead, if an agreement is not reached within two months of negotiating, the state’s next AFSCME contract would be decided by an labor arbitrator.

Last week the Illinois Senate voted to override the governor’s veto of this bill, and the measure now needs House approval. Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan is urging Democrats to follow the Senate’s lead and strip Rauner’s ability to set the terms of the next union contract, but that might not be what voters want, according to a new poll released today by Illinois Policy Action.

The poll was conducted by Ogden & Fry across suburban Chicago legislative districts. In all districts surveyed, very few voters said their opinion of their state representative would improve if the lawmaker consistently voted with Speaker Madigan. Also, in all of the districts surveyed, more than half of voters said they actually would think more negatively of their state representative if he or she voted with Speaker Madigan the majority of the time.

“Suburban lawmakers hold tremendous sway in the budget battle going on in Springfield, and that’s why these poll findings are so important. Even though voters in these districts elected Democrats to represent them, the poll results show they don’t want their representatives to be proxies for Speaker Madigan,” said John Tillman, CEO of Illinois Policy Action. “Speaker Madigan is putting intense pressure on these suburban lawmakers to support his agenda and to override the governor’s veto of the AFSCME bill. But the polling data is extremely clear: Voters think very negatively of politicians who vote consistently with Madigan.”

POLL QUESTION: Do you think of State Representative [NAME] more favorably or less favorably if s/he votes with Mike Madigan 90 percent of the time?


    State Rep. Deb Conroy, 46th district: 51.4 percent less favorably, 22.2 percent more favorably for voting with Madigan;
    State Rep. Scott Drury, 58th district: 57.8 percent less favorably, 18.1 percent more favorably for voting with Madigan;
    State Rep. Marty Moylan, 55th district: 54.9 percent less favorably, 19 percent more favorably for voting with Madigan;
    State Rep. Michelle Mussman, 56th district: 51.6 percent more favorably, 21.5 percent less favorably for voting with Madigan;
    State Rep. Elaine Nekritz, 57th district: 52.2 percent less favorably, 16.5 percent more favorably for voting with Madigan;
    State Rep. Carol Sente, 59th district: 55.7 percent less favorably, 21 percent more favorably for voting with Madigan;
    State Rep. Sam Yingling, 62nd district: 54.1 percent less favorably, 18.1 less favorably for voting with Madigan.

Those Mussman results are kind of odd, no?

…Adding… The group misprinted the Mussman results. From the pollster…

More favorably 76 21.5%
Less favorably 182 51.6%
Undecided 95 26.9%

Also, in order to confidently “move” voters to base their election day decision on a single issue, you generally need numbers in the 70s. We’re a long way from that point right now.

Plus, the campaign hasn’t even started yet. The incumbents haven’t fully made their own cases.

In other words, we’ll see.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Facts are stubborn things - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:40 am:

    This bill does not strip gov. Rauner so ability to bargain,

  2. - Anonin' - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:40 am:

    Wow TeamBungle really gettin’ into this one….are they plannin’ a Scheme B if the override occurs?

  3. - A guy - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:42 am:

    This is interesting…but that’s all it is at this point as Rich suggests. It may well bode for multiple elections in the suburbs where one would assume MJM is on the ballot running opposite the challenger. It’s been done before, but never with the resources that are out there now. Like I said, interesting. We’ll see…is a good way to put it.

  4. - Wordslinger - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:44 am:

    So what makes Madigan so popular around O’Hare?

  5. - Tournaround Agenda - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:44 am:

    The poll is flawed from the outset. It doesn’t strip the governor’s right to bargain. It merely provides arbitration if contract negotiations hit an impasse, avoiding the possibility of strike or lockout. I’d take these numbers with a heavy dose of salt.

  6. - Liberty - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:44 am:

    Push polling is worthless.

  7. - Langhorne - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:45 am:

    The premise is bunk. Bills get worked over until there is broad support. A very high percentage of bills pass overwhelmingly, making it hard NOT to be voting w madigan. Very few bills squeak by.

  8. - Team Sleep - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:48 am:

    Rich - perhaps they oversampled Rep. Mussman’s family and LinkedIn pals.

  9. - Politix - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:51 am:

    Possible temporary dyslexia for Mussman’s entry in order to make the polling look legit.

  10. - Mama - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:51 am:

    Why is Rauner so afraid of SB1229? I thought he said he wants to bargain in good faith, and is what SB1229 is all about.

  11. - ChinaTown - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:54 am:

    Rich nails it after the release — for a single issue to move anyone, these #s aren’t even close. This is almost helpful for wavering Dems.

    Never mind that this comes via IPI.

  12. - Worth It - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:55 am:

    This bill absolutely undermines Rauner’s ability to negotiate. The employee unions will be able to wait out the clock in favor of negotiating with a favorable adversary. Unfortunately brinksmanship is often what it takes for two sides to come to an agreement with mutual sacrifice which is the measure of a fair agreement. This is impossible when one of the sides negotiating can have their representative (who happens to be elected in part to fulfill this role) removed from the equation after 2 months.

  13. - ChinaTown - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:56 am:

    Also, the ILGOP can already easily run their campaigns along the lines of a “vote against Yingling/Madigan agenda” without this bill.

    Again, another reason for wavering Dems not to bolt. The potential linkage to Madigan is a sunk cost. If GOP goes there, it’ll either work or it won’t.

  14. - Just saying... - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:57 am:

    Too funny…an organization with little credibility if any at all and is funded by Rauner and the other 1%er’s runs a push poll of little value to help a failing governor who has determined his success is based on bashing Madigan and unions instead of actually governing - feel better about himself.

    I’m sure that the DEMS can run a push poll about Rauner and get similar results!

    OK not funny just a sad state of affairs.

  15. - Help - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:59 am:

    OMG!!! Mike Madigan is unpopular in the suburbs?! Who knew? This is may be the most earth shattering news ever unearthed by polling. I’m sure the targeted legislators are shocked and will immediately change their voting patterns.

  16. - Skeptic - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:59 am:

    “This bill absolutely undermines AFSCME’s ability to negotiate. The employer will be able to wait out the clock in favor of negotiating with a favorable adversary.”

    Works both ways.

  17. - Skeptic - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:01 am:

    And the whole premise is (as has been stated repeatedly) flawed. How does “voting with Madigan the majority of the time” indicate support or lack thereof for 1229? How about “voting with Rauner” the majority of the time? Maybe the pollees would like their representatives to vote for *them* and not someone else, be it Madigan or Rauner.

  18. - is it just me? - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:02 am:

    Poll questions are like statistics, its all in how it is phrased/set up and the interpretation you want to believe.

  19. - Facts are stubborn things - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:02 am:

    This bill is about solving problems in moderation and not the extreme. It is sad it takes a bill to create moderation.

  20. - Me too - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:06 am:

    Worth it, that is untrue. Because one side will be chosen it incentivises both sides moderate their demands least they be considered not extreme than the other then if both sides feel they can be no more fair and that their proposal is the most level headed approach, they can request arbitration. No one would request it unless the other side was not moving and still had outrageous demands. So, unless Rauner wants to force outrageous demands down the union’s throat, then he has no reason to oppose this. If he really plans on bargaining then there’s no need for an arbitrator as no impasse will be reached. Hr just wants to be able not to budge on his demands and then force the union to either strike, so he can replace workers, or accept a horrible contract that will basically eliminate the need for a union since the only thing that they can negotiate is work conditions and everyone’s take home goes down dramatically while copays and coinsurance rise sky high. Who could accept that? He wants a strike which is why he opposes this bill, plain and simple.

  21. - Juvenal - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:06 am:

    Rich is spot on.

    I can assure you that a poll question on slashing funding for autism, the developmentally disabled, etc while “refusing to close corporate tax loopholes” polls in the upper 60’s and 70’s in suburban Republican districts.

    The same question, gut pay and benefits for teachers, firefighters and police officers in downstate Illinois is downright lethal in Central and Southern Illinois GOP districts.

    Besides, all of this is moot.

    Because most people are betting that by November 2016, Illinois will have enacted some sort of tax increase that will have been signed by Governor Rauner and all of the lawmakers listed above will have voted against it.

    Either that, or we will have appropriated no money to buy salt for IDOT this winter. Or gasoline for the State Police.

  22. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:08 am:

    ===It may well bode for multiple elections in the suburbs where one would assume MJM is on the ballot running opposite the challenger. It’s been done before, but never with the resources that are out there now.===


    “Fire Madigan, 2.0″ is a loser. Even at $100 million (Rauner’s election at $62 million, $20 million for 20 races, and $20 million for Turnaround and IllinoisGO PACS)

    Plus, if Labor decides every GOP statehouse candidate = an end to collective bargaining, it’s the same wishy-washy insane notion that “Fire Madigan, 2.0″ is s winner.

    It ain’t.

    Man, the Raunerite campaign plan, even with IllinoisGO is just a gravy train of a nine-figure pipe dream others will feast on the easy cash.


  23. - Button is broke... - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:09 am:

    What about a poll asking voters how they feel about House Republican members that vote with Madigan 80% of the time? The vast majority of the bills that are voted on are nearly unanimous. (Might have to look at previous GA’s with Madigan not voting as much this GA.)

  24. - VanillaMan - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:10 am:

    There are still deals being made to effect this final vote outcome.

  25. - walker - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:14 am:

    The question is fundamentally wrong, because it does not take into account what actually happens in Springfield. It’s results are at best misleading, at worst meaningless.

    Most bills (hundreds) sail thru the House with large majorities from both sides. Many are virtually consensus. In an overall bill count, most Republicans also “voted with Madigan.” Is that what voters mean when they answered this question?”

    No. What is of interest is votes on the fewer contentious bills, where the votes are closer and more partisan than usual. On those bills, a “vote with Madigan” might be of concern. But, Madigan deliberately pulls his “targets” from competitive suburban districts off of those contentious bills, whenever he can.

    Therefore, there simply aren’t suburban Reps who “vote with Madigan 90% of the time” on contentious bills. While there are many Republicans and Democrats who do vote “with Madigan” when counting all bills.

    In my own case, I voted less with Madigan on contentious bills, and on bills overall, than did the Republican Leader Tom Cross. A meaningless metric.

  26. - nona - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:15 am:

    How about asking voters what they think of GOP Reps who vote with Rauner 100% of the time? I bet Tillman does not criticize GOP legislators who obediently vote the way they are told.

  27. - lake county democrat - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:17 am:

    I love how none of the Madigan genuflectors are touching the basic meaning of the poll.

    The polled voters are overwhelmingly against the veto override. Looks like 55% vs. 15% Even in Democrat districts.

    You can argue, perhaps correctly, that this won’t translate into votes come election time. But you can’t argue that if the suburban reps vote to override the veto, they are ignoring their constituents and illustrating just how indebted they are to the unions.

  28. - CharlieKratos - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:18 am:

    So instead of trying to negotiating with Madigan or AFSCME, Team Bungle decides to only go on the attack. When/if SB1229 passes, there will be massive furloughs just to prove that “you don’t mess with Bruce”. He really is the definition of “My way or the highway”, isn’t he? How can anyone trust someone who is that inflexible when you can’t disagree with him even once or you have a f$&@#n problem?

  29. - Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:21 am:

    ===The polled voters are overwhelmingly against the veto override===


    How so? I didn’t see that question even listed and it’s not mentioned at all in the question which is listed.

  30. - Joe M - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:21 am:

    is it just me at 11:02 hit it on the head - its all in the way poll questions are framed. I’d say those poll questions were framed to get a certain responsive.

  31. - the Other Anonymous - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:23 am:

    I’m not sure how this poll moves anyone.

    A vote against SB1299 will not change anyone’s record of voting with Madigan more than 90% of the time, so the question really has nothing to do with the issue.

    More speculatively, I think when respondents hear the phrase “votes with Madigan 90% of the time” they also hear an implied “against our interests.” The thing is, this poll shows nothing about the popularity or lack of popularity of SB 1299.

    Last, walker raises a really good point about how often you can count Republicans voting with Madigan. The number really has to be in the high 70s at least, right?

  32. - dawn - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:35 am:

    If I were MJM and saw those numbers I’d think, not bad…

  33. - Worth It - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:36 am:

    @Me too…thanks for the response, two points to your response 1) this bill changes the status quo of how negotiations have taken place in this state for a long time and it does strip Rauner of the power of that the Governor’s office is supposed to wield, that is of course why he is against it. 2) with regard to the timeline you are completely eliminating the initial negotiations prior to the forced coming together that arbitration provides, the 2 month window is completely arbitrary. There is nothing good government about this bill and there are already remedies in place should it get to an impasse. To institute this now is creating a bill specifically designed to hamstring Rauner, nothing less nothing more.

  34. - anonlurker - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:46 am:

    Less and less?
    ==State Rep. Sam Yingling, 62nd district: 54.1 percent less favorably, 18.1 less favorably for voting with Madigan.==

  35. - Ghost - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:47 am:

    Put in the subjects of the vote and see of the demagoguery holds…. Would you be more likely to support your candidate if they voted to provide medical care for veterans and old people… For exmple the build a campaing against voting with madigan; the countet adds pull out laws that helped barious groups and finish with a tag line like, why is so and so opposed to helping dsabled veterans?

    Thats the dange of makin it about madigan, madigan has supported popular bills so tou end up attacking popular laws

  36. - GOP Veteran - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:50 am:

    @ Worth It
    Under successful override of 1229, the Governor vmcan negotiate all the way until the end. He just no longer gets to give an ultimatum to employees of 20-30 years of service, which is what he wants. This bill addresses well what happens AT impasse instead of the Governor being allowed to stuff his desires down working families throats the way the French stuff geese to make foie gras.

  37. - Worth It - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 12:01 pm:

    There are already arbitration and court remedies in place. Why were these righteous “reforms” never made until Rauner took office?

  38. - CharlieKratos - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 12:17 pm:

    Because, until Rauner took office they weren’t necessary.

  39. - GOP Veteran - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 12:20 pm:

    Probably because there has NEVER been a Gov in IL who has wanted to harm state employees as determinedly as Gov Rauner and that includes 26 years out of 42 years under GOP governorship since Walker OK’d unions in 1973. This Gov is out of step with GOP tradition in IL.

  40. - Robert the 1st - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 12:23 pm:

    “Why were these righteous “reforms” never made until Rauner took office?”

    Because Rauner is the first governor who didn’t take any of AFSCME’s money. Negotiating is all fair and well until the other side actually is contentious. When that happens you simply use the politicians you have bought to change the rules in your favor.

  41. - late to the party - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 12:23 pm:

    It would be interesting if the House Dems get a few GOP to vote yes, allowing Madigan or a couple targets to vote no.

  42. - Arsenal - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 12:24 pm:

    I suppose the big problem is, it’s already pretty well believed that these guys are all in Madigan’s back pocket, and they nonetheless won their elections.

  43. - D.P.Gumby - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 12:24 pm:

    If a unicorn was a fish could it ride a bicycle and make you more likely to vote for Speaker Madigan?

  44. - Archiesmom - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 12:46 pm:

    So the institutional response to all this mess is a freaking push poll? God help us all.

  45. - Worth It - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 1:06 pm:

    Archiesmom +1

  46. - Precinct Captain - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 1:12 pm:

    ==- Worth It - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 10:55 am:==

    Employers win the majority of arbitration cases in Illinois. The reason Rauner hates this bill is because he knows is offers are not fair in any shape, fashion, or form will get rejected by an arbitrator. If he were negotating in good faith, the management side would most likely be selected by an arbitrator.

    ==- is it just me? - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:02 am:==

    That’s not at all how statistics or opinion sampling works, but go on and continue to live in ignorance.

    ==- Worth It - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 11:36 am:==

    It does not strip the governor of anything. He can continue to negotiate.

  47. - Shanks - Friday, Aug 28, 15 @ 3:31 pm:

    Rauner won’t lock public servants out…he will force them to strike, look at Rauner’s proposals, no one in the right mind would accept them. Rauner is not compromising at all. You think the state is bad without a budget? Wait until the state workers are left no other choice but to strike.

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