Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » I was actually being charitable
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
I was actually being charitable

Monday, Jan 25, 2016

* From my intervew with Gov. Bruce Rauner

“(I)f we can get business regulatory change so I can recruit manufacturer’s here and more transportation companies here, and more businesses here, we can generate billions of new revenue without raising tax rates. That’s directly tied to the budget.”

* As you already know, I asked for proof of this. He had his staff send me a memo and chart that he distributed to legislators last September. I quoted from his own documentation that he projected increased revenues of $510 million.

That came from this particular page

Economic Growth

    • Personal Income Tax Savings by Ending Out-
    Migration: $140 million

    • Revenue Growth by Making Illinois “Average” in Unemployment: $150 Million

    • Revenue Growth if Average Gross State Product: $220 Million

* But then on the very next page, the governor’s own analysis only used one of those numbers

Net State Financial Impact from Reforms

    • Savings: $1.8 billion

    • Revenue from Economic Growth: $220+ million

    • Total Net State Financial Impact: More than $2 billion

So, $220+ million in “net” revenues from economic growth.

Those are the governor’s own numbers that he sent to legislators last fall to justify holding out for a better deal and shutting down part of the government in the process.

Hey, maybe the numbers are very conservative. Maybe they’re even wrong. But they’re not my numbers, they’re Rauner’s numbers.

The point is, why send this to legislators if it was a wild low-ball? Why then send those very same numbers to me? And then after sending it to me, why whine that I got the numbers wrong when they were his own numbers?


- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Huh? - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:06 pm:

    Mr. Miller, it is obvious that you got the numbers wrong because you used his numbers that haven’t been independently corroborated and were taken out of context from a private presentation that shouldn’t have been made public.

  2. - the Other Anonymous - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:08 pm:

    It’s also questionable how he gets to $1.8 billion in savings. Virtually the entire amount is from “collective bargaining.” I wonder if he is referring to the magic asterisk in his FY2016 proposed budget of $2 bln in pension savings. If so, he can’t promise it because the Supreme Court really has the last word on that. Based on its past rulings, I don’t think you can count on the court to uphold the Rauner version of pension reform.

  3. - Eugene - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:08 pm:

    Because his strategy in politics (and in business, I wouldn’t be surprised) is to bury people in numbers laid out in impressive-looking power points and then just assume no one will drill down to see if it all adds up. And usually it’s a safe assumption.

  4. - Humm - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:09 pm:

    This is a guy who speaks without thinking and throws numbers out randomly. Your statement absolutely depict what the Governor’s Office had been telling legislators and staff.

    Also, this is a guy who decided it was a good idea to spend millions on a contract with Deloite to put together an annoucement on IT the same week hundreds of social service agencies are shutting down.

    Not exactly the most moral guy out there.

  5. - Stones - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:10 pm:

    Let’s not get facts in the way of the Governor’s message.

  6. - Earnest - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:10 pm:

    It’s hardly fair, the way you have to run a state. You can’t hide money in off-shore accounts. You can’t close a plant or lay people off somewhere far from your headquarters. You can’t refuse to interact with anyone other than your subordinates. You have to deal with people you can’t fire or lay off. Most important–you can’t just declare bankruptcy and walk away with what you got for yourself.

  7. - 360 Degree TurnAround - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:11 pm:

    If he does this to you Rich, think what the poor AFSCME negotiators have to go through.

  8. - Flynn's Mom - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:12 pm:

    There are lies, damn lies and statistics.
    Mark Twain

  9. - Sam Weinberg - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:13 pm:

    This 2003 quote was ultimately attributed to Karl Rove, but I can’t keep coming back to it when thinking about Rauner. I would bet everything I own that this is Rauner’s way of thinking, whether he understands it or not.

    The aide said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” … “That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

  10. - pundent - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:15 pm:

    This underlies the issue that many have been saying here but few in the media have been reporting on. At what point do we hold Rauner accountable for ending his campaign and actually showing demonstrable benefits of the “turnaround agenda”. We can all agree that “reforms” are needed but Rauner has yet to make the case that it should be these “reforms” or that the consequences of his actions are justified by the benefits. The reason that he’s been hostile towards Rich is that very few people have called him out on the issue. Hopefully that starts to change.

  11. - the Other Anonymous - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:18 pm:

    @ Eugene:

    –Because his strategy in politics (and in business, I wouldn’t be surprised) is to bury people in numbers laid out in impressive-looking power points –

    Meh. Click on the Powerpoint. It’s plain black and white text. Not impressive at all. We don’t even get the illusion of something well thought out.

  12. - Just saying... - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:24 pm:

    $220 million net revenue growth…that’s about half of the money (we know about) that the Raunerites have spent on campaigning since the start. Maybe Madigan was correct in his push for the Millionaires Tax…I think that taxpayers might get a better rate of return than the Raunerites have thus far…just saying

  13. - Austin Blvd - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:28 pm:

    During the last campaign, Quinn et al put out what many considered to be inappropriately malicious ads about Rauner companies:
    - The nursing home sell offs and consequences for senior residents;
    - Threatening to destroying a female executive;
    - buying a biopharma company and raising the price of pharmaceuticals for newborns astronomically;
    - and more.
    It was difficult for many to believe those accusations. And fast forward to today, it is beyond comprehension for many to believe Illinois has a governor who can and will do readily throw the needy under a bus to get what he wants.
    That is the kind of person he is.

  14. - Albany Park Patriot - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:28 pm:

    Even the wildest HIGH-BALL wouldn’t make up the gap.

  15. - Ray del Camino - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:34 pm:

    This is a little one-state preview of what a Donald Trump presidency would look like.

  16. - Chicago 20 - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:36 pm:

    Rauner is whining because you spoiled his story with the facts.

    Rauner needs the suspension of reality during the theatrics.

    Next time when reporting contrary facts make sure to proclaim “Spoiler Alert”.

  17. - Stuff Happens - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:41 pm:

    You should have known those numbers would be inaccurate just because of the integrity of the source.

  18. - Flannery Fan - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:45 pm:

    Rich Miller have you been quoting $200mil or $500mil or $2bil? There are a lot of numbers floating around here.

  19. - Streator Curmudgeon - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:50 pm:

    Rich, you’re preaching to the choir here.

    You would not have lasted as long as you have in journalism if you were not an accurate, careful reporter. Editors would have dropped your columns long ago if you made stuff up.

    No, the Governor needs to stop the blame game and Man Up. His problem is that he hears enough “Hang in there’s” and “stay strong” while he’s touring the state that he’s believing his own PR.

    Just keep doing what you’re doing. You’re in the right.

  20. - Sir Reel - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:54 pm:

    He may be confusing economic growth (billions) with tax revenue growth (millions).

    After all, he’s so busy governing he can’t keep track of such details.

    Oh wait. I just came out of my daydream.

  21. - Flannery Fan - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 12:56 pm:

    Streator Curmudgeon nothing against your Rich Miller example but let’s not give the journalism profession too much credit. A lot of things get out in the mainstream media and not all of them would pass the smell test of a noble, red-bearded anchor of Fox 32 Chicago.

  22. - onfire - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:02 pm:

    I believe the Governor was telling you to back off Rich. You are on his radar now. He could not believe a member of the press would actually question him. Stay strong Rich. You are one of the few reporters to actually get the facts. We appreciate you.

  23. - Natalie - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:16 pm:

    $220 million from stopping out migration - for goodness sake!!! This number implies that no people move out of Illinois - are we going to build a wall? It seems that the data used to develop this “estimate” comes from the IRS. It is important to note that the Adjusted Gross Income associated with a given migrant’s tax return is the total AGI for the filer AFTER migration. It is not how much money they earned prior to departure, it is how much income they earned after arrival. The AGI reported to the IRS has no connection to the departure state and as such cannot be considered an “outflow.”

  24. - crazybleedingheart - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:18 pm:

    ==If he does this to you Rich, think what the poor AFSCME negotiators have to go through.==


    Nailing Jell-O to the wall.

  25. - Ahoy! - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:19 pm:

    I support much of what the Governor is trying to do (pension reform, workers comp reform, UI reform, maps, completely changing the way our government works because i don’t view it as working and I’m even ok with some of his efforts to curtail the public sector unions since they do have a monopoly and stranglehold on our government).

    One thing that does irritate me is his method and his theatrics, in other words, the how he is trying to get his agenda’s accomplished. The guy needs to learn to rain it in, go the edge but for the sake of pete stop jumping off the cliff.

  26. - Georg Sande - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:20 pm:

    Did someone mention whining?

  27. - Former Hoosier - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:20 pm:

    Austin Blvd. @ 12:28- You are absolutely right. So, rather than look malicious, those ads now appear pretty accurate.

    Ray del Camino @ 12:34- So true. Let Illinois be an example of what the entire country could look like under Pres. Trump.

  28. - Natalie - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:24 pm:

    Sorry, I meant to say $140 m.

  29. - Langhorne - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:32 pm:

    His “analysis” was laughable. A grad school Econ or public admin prof would give him a fat F.

    No way he made hundreds of millions based on such feeble work. He is the salesman, drivin’ results, does he know or care about details?

  30. - Hedley Lamarr - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:52 pm:

    Bruce: Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?

  31. - TD - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 1:59 pm:

    Unfortunately, Rich, we’ve recently seen what being charitable in this state gets you.

  32. - Jack Stephens - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 2:00 pm:

    Good post!

  33. - CrazyHorse - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 2:47 pm:

    Rich didn’t you run those numbers past the IPI legal team? LOL

  34. - Mama - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 4:38 pm:

    Rich, no more governor’s reports for you! Didn’t you get the memo telling you not to check his numbers? /s

  35. - Natalie - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 5:04 pm:

    While we all wish our unemployment rate was lower - right now we sit at 5.7 percent while the national average is 5 percent - the above number of $150 million can not be justified by the data. BLS wage and unemployment data indicate that the estimate associated with an unemployment rate equal to the national average would generate approximately $75 million. Not sure how they came up with an estimate associated with higher GSP - I would be interested to see how that particular sausage was made.

  36. - wordslinger - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 5:15 pm:

    That’s why some of us were screaming so loudly and so long for the governor to show his cards as to his “economic and fiscal rationale.”

    It’s a joke. Even the numbers he came up with are unsupported and would not pass muster at any corporation.

    You have to show your work, there.

    Unless cheerleaders like the Tribbies, Louis, Guy, Federalist, FKA, Tone, et. al. can bring the goods and bail them out…..

    ….I guess I’d just have to question their honesty and sincerity after all these months carrying the governor’s water.

    You’re just for whatever he says, with no independent thought or analysis, at all.

    And you don’t care who gets thrown under the bus for that level of boot-licking.

    There’s a word for that.

    Many, actually.

  37. - Macbeth - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 6:17 pm:

    What I want to know is where are the investigative journalists tracking Rauner’s business deals? If he ran his businesses like he’s running the state, he’d get canned. Yet I suspect this is *exactly* how he ran his businesses — threats and all.

    Where are the stories?

  38. - Macbeth - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 6:18 pm:

    BTW == yes, I know there were stories during the campaign. But where’s the follow-through? Where’s the: “Hey, wait, this is a weird pattern …” stories?

  39. - Twinkle Toes - Monday, Jan 25, 16 @ 9:26 pm:

    Let’s be honest, the two reason GE didn’t want to come to Illinois is: 1. More likely because of Rauner’s inability to negotiate; 2. Inconsistencies in his management, as brought forward by this story.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Caption contest!
* Biss on board with Pritzker's publicly funded campaign idea
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner aide claims governor will likely sign stand-alone 72-hour gun buy waiting period bill
* Sanguinetti calls Madigan "harasser-in-chief"
* Affordable housing, Dan Proft and the Illinois Policy Institute on the city's Northwest Side
* It's just a bill
* Appellate court directs Board of Elections to reopen Mautino case
* Massive school superintendent lawsuit lines up with massive ISBE budget request
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Madigan coverage roundup
* *** UPDATED x1 *** A new one on me
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...









* The Mix — Some cool things to do May 25-31, 2018..
* Rauner's Gun Bill Veto Is Not All or Nothing, A.....
* Rauner's Gun Bill Veto Is Not All or Nothing, A.....
* Aide explains Rauner's gun veto - Danville Comm.....
* County attorney to consider threats in North Wo.....
* Rauner says Texas is more union job friendly th.....

* Rockford Park District mulls sale of well-known water park
* Civil rights lawyer defending suspect in commander's death
* Family rejoices at finding of soldier's World War II plane
* Condemned Ohio man blames killing on 'homosexual panic'
* Woman armed with rifle shot to death by police
* Rauner's gun veto not all or nothing, aide says
* 3 men convicted in fatal shooting of teen in front of twin
* Man convicted in fatal shooting of teen in front of twin
* US man gets 15 years in prison for illegal handgun exports
* The Latest: Rauner urges lawmakers to mull entire gun plan

* Lawmakers debate non-death penalty parts of Rauner's safety rewrite
* Bernard Schoenburg: Butler seeks to help caucus with $$, joins gun group
* Two anti-sex harassment bills go to Rauner's desk
* Illinois governor gets bill legalizing industrial hemp
* Rauner's gun veto not all or nothing, aide says
* Illinois Senate panel endorses wage-equity plan
* Judge: IDOC must comply with prison mental health plan
* Madigan denies retaliating against Democratic lawmaker, calls for investigation
* Madigan denies retaliating against Democratic lawmaker, calls for independent investigation
* Madigan denies retaliating against Democratic lawmaker

* A low-tech way to help ex-offenders rejoin society
* Steve Dolinsky wants you to know Chicago is a great pizza town
* Chicago's best pizza in 10 categories
* Home Chef sells to Kroger in deal worth as much as $700 million
* Madigan retaliation probe not independent, AG candidate charges

* Former CBOT chairman Patrick Arbor arrested at Boston airport
* No immigration deal unless ‘real wall,’ good security: Trump
* 3 armed robberies, carjackings this week on Southwest Side: police
* Comey among ‘rotten apples’ in FBI, Trump says
* Trump lauds NFL policy banning kneeling for national anthem
* The Mix — Some cool things to do May 25-31, 2018
* 3 men, 2 women wounded in Chicago gun violence Wednesday
* North Korea demolishes nuke test site with series of blasts
* Jeep Wrangler: Award-winning Wrangler delivers on & off the pavement
* Summer Celebrations 2018— Our guide to the Chicago area’s festivals

* Donald Trump on national anthem: Players who protest 'maybe shouldn't be in the country'
* North Korea says it has demolished its nuclear test site with series of explosions
* Man who groped customer during massage at Evanston spa found guilty of sex abuse
* If public perception changes on Kevin White, it will be because of his play, not his words
* Chicago's population down third year in a row - but we're still ahead of Houston: census
* Women are landing more seats on corporate boards, but pace of change is 'glacial'
* 'First Reformed' review: Ethan Hawke’s bracing dark night of the soul
* Woman must reset her dorkometer for dating success
* Morning Spin: Emanuel doesn't take a side in sports betting debate

» Illinois Could Get More Nurses Trained To Help Sexual Assault Survivors
» May 23, 2018 - Full Show
» Gun Restraining Order Bill Passes IL House, Latest in String of Gun Legislation
» Mr. Beef’s Chris Zucchero Helps Chicago Celebrate Italian Beef Week
» NW Indiana Cop Has A History Of Confrontations At Bar
» Update on Illinois Men Accused of Bombing; Evictions in Decatur; Illinois Politics Update
» Madigan Calls For Investigation After Accusations Of Retaliation
» Survivor Shares Experience With Rape Kit Testing
» Inspector General: End Public School Perk For Chicago’s Wealthiest
» May 22, 2018 - Full Show

* Lawmakers debate non-death penalty parts of Rauner's safety rewrite
* Bernard Schoenburg: Butler seeks to help caucus with $$, joins gun group
* Our View: SIU drama can't lead to more bureaucracy
* Our View: Deterrence program carries great potential
* Two anti-sex harassment bills go to Rauner's desk
* Illinois governor gets bill legalizing industrial hemp
* Rauner's gun veto not all or nothing, aide says
* Illinois Senate panel endorses wage-equity plan
* Judge: IDOC must comply with prison mental health plan
* Madigan denies retaliating against Democratic lawmaker, calls for investigation

* Now hiring in Decatur and Macon County. Recently posted employment opportunities for job seekers
* New adoptables in Decatur and Macon County. Pick your new dog or cat!
* Woman sues East St. Louis Police, says she was injured when struck by a squad car
* St. Clair County man had video on how to groom, sexually assault children, charges say
* Just released: What do census numbers show about Decatur's population total? Let's look at the data.
* Agency heads anticipating 20% cut in United Way funding
* Decatur and Macon County neighbors: Obituaries published today
* Daily Digest 5/24/18
* Rick's Six: Hot and humid, LeClaire eatery closes, and shots fired
* United Way asks public to embrace new way of calculating agency's impact

* Did ICE raid St. Charles restaurants?
* She said she was sexually assaulted by a state trooper. His camera footage shows otherwise.
* Mazzone's Hawthorne selections for Thursday's races
* Feder: WLS cuts ties with Dick Biondi
* EU imposes sales conditions on Russia's Gazprom

* Blockchain Is 'World-Changing', Says US Co...
* Metra's new shop will crank out more refur...
* Congressional Hearing on UFOs Suggested by...
* Democrats turnout surged in primaries: report
* MRO Workforce Grant Program Takes Another ...
* Who has signed the DACA discharge petition
* Black women, the “backbone” of the Democra...
* Guest Opinion: The 'center' cannot hold
* Nazis in America: Meet the Worst Candidate...
* McDonald's workers allege widespread sexua...

* Koch Group Pushing Lawmakers for DACA Fix...
* GOP also reveled when president failed...
* White House-backed prisons bill divides pa......
* Prison reform bill passes US House...
* Trump Administration Ups Dose Of Shame As ......

* Harris, Feinstein, Colleagues Call on Sess......
* Roy Blunt is right on harassment bill: Tax......
* AUSTIN, Texas (AP) - The Latest on the mas......
* The Latest: Texas victim's mother speaks o......
* The Latest: Rockets to remember Santa Fe s......

* Milwaukee. 1968.
* Teachers.
* Dealing with slaughter in the schools, Congress should follow the example of John Wayne
* 33-Unit Rental Building Rises on Sheridan, While Surrounding Area Booms
* St. Boniface Cemetery To Hold Memorial Day Field Mass
* Art Show Opening Reception At The Guesthouse Hotel On June 1st
* Will ‘da Judge’ buy “Fast Eddie” claim his witnesses are too old to remember?
* Columbia College is eliminating book costs, fees for adult students
* What are higher-ed’s analytics priorities?
* 2018’s Cities with the Most & Least Student Debt

* IEMA Releases New Broadcast Campaign Focusing on Functional Needs Emergency Preparedness
* Rend Lake Water Conservancy District Water Main Break
* Statement from Gov. Rauner
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May
* IEMA Highlights Role of Volunteers in Disasters

* TNW Conference 2018: What you need to know
* US Department of Justice is investigating Bitcoin price manipulation
* How the storytelling of today shapes the technology of tomorrow
* Nokia 8 Sirocco review: A premium indulgence
* The TicWatch Pro uses a transparent second display to save power
* Pool on your iPhone is better when it’s more like a video game
* We're all a bit of Trump when it comes to cybersecurity

* Most Essential White Sox Vote: Round 5
* White Sox hit 3 HRs; Covey gets 1st MLB win
* This May Have Been the Soxiest Evening of 2018
* White Sox Minor League Update: May 23, 2018
* Garcia exits with knee sprain after stolen base
* Sheets posts big game for Winston-Salem
* White Sox hit 3 HRs; Covey gets 1st MLB win

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller