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Tribune poll: Alvarez leads despite 30 percent approval rating

Tuesday, Feb 2, 2016

* This is why unpopular incumbents prefer multi-candidate primaries

Alvarez, known by nearly all voters, had 34 percent support, while Foxx had 27 percent and More had 12 percent, the poll showed. An additional 26 percent said they backed another candidate or were undecided.

Only about a third of Democratic voters support her, and a quarter are undecided or clueless, but she’s still leading the pack.

* More

The poll found a large percentage of voters don’t accept Alvarez’s explanation for her handling of the McDonald case. More than 7 in 10 Democratic voters said they were not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with it. That included 85 percent of black voters, 67 percent of Hispanic voters and 64 percent of white voters. […]

Overall, half of voters in the poll disapproved of Alvarez job performance, while 30 percent approved and 20 percent had no opinion. White voters were split on the question, while 68 percent of black voters disapproved as did 47 percent of Hispanic voters. The error margin for racial and ethnic subgroups is 5.7 percentage points.

30 percent approval.


* One more

Not to be Mr. Obvious or anything, but if Foxx can tightly sew together blacks, unions and liberals she has a very real path in a three-way primary.

* Meanwhile, this is probably a good move by Alvarez

Cook County State’s Attorney Anita Alvarez slams Kim Foxx after the Foxx campaign launched a radio ad hitting Alvarez over the Laquan McDonald case, saying she failed to charge in the case for 400 days. Alvarez has contended she was working in concert with the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the period between the shooting and the release of the video. “It’s disappointing that Kim Foxx is running attack ads to score political points off the death of a teenager — in a case that Anita Alvarez has already charged after a joint investigation with the FBI and the US Attorney’s Office,” Alvarez campaign manager Mike Carson said in a statement to POLITICO.”

“Maybe Foxx wants to avoid a discussion about her real record of … raising the sales tax and using tax dollars to give out millions in political pay raises to her supporters. It’s time for voters to learn about the real Kim Foxx.” Given that Foxx is Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle’s chief of staff, it’s clear team Alvarez plans to lay Preckwinkle’s flip-flop tax hike at Foxx’s feet.”

THIRD CANDIDATE — Running in the three-way primary for Cook County State’s Attorney is Donna More. More announced Tuesday she is launching a month-long TV ad campaign. From More’s camp: “The effort includes a 30 second spot entitled ‘Anita Alvarez Must Go.’ The cable TV schedule that the campaign purchased will have both 30 and 15 second ads running in primetime and daytime … The ads are intended to draw a sharp distinction between the ‘justice delayed, justice denied’ term of incumbent Anita Alvarez and More’s qualifications for restoring the integrity of the State’s Attorney’s Office. Citing Alvarez’ misconduct, one of the ads says, ‘Anita Alvarez must go.’ The other is a 15 second spot that focuses on More’s plan for reducing gun violence.”

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 8:52 am:

    Foxx’s biggest handicap is her lack of important experience; working as an assistant prosecutor at the Juvenile Court is not the same as handling felony prosecutions at the Criminal Courts Building at 26th and Cal.

  2. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:06 am:

    To the Post,

    The Raunerite More shoukd have been on TV two whole weeks ago. If you’re going to break the caps, swamp your opponent by first spending on media at an alarming rate for your message, and second, don’t take your foot off the gas.

    If the Democrats can’t stop Alvarez, and the only option is the Raunerite More, spendin’ and gettin’ on the TV, what exactly was all that re-slating all about?

    If anything, today, these numbers make More seem more, Foxx crazy for not being closer, and Alvarez the luckiest person to be at 30%

    More would be a complete disaster, not unlike Dunkin.

  3. - Ravenswood Right Winger - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:13 am:

    I was more amused by the poll showing Cook County Circuit Clerk Dorothy Brown still in the lead despite all of her problems.

  4. - Anon404 - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:26 am:

    The undecideds are interesting. Like Rich said, the African-Americans will break hard for Foxx. But the number of undecided whites and Hispanics is high too.

    Will be interesting to see if Alvarez shifts right, gives up on defending her “criminal justice reform” record, and runs more of an old fashion law-and-order (and anti-Preckwinkle tax) campaign. She might lose white liberals that way, but she probably wasn’t going to get them to begin with. Shifting right is obviously risky in a Dem primary, but I’m not sure where else she goes.

  5. - Century Club - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:30 am:

    Interestingly, Alvarez has a distinct money advantage at this point, and is still outraising Foxx despite the Dem party endorsement. If she can get up on TV a lot, I think she can keep enough votes away from Foxx to pull it off.

  6. - Chicagonk - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:46 am:

    Donna More is eminently more qualified than Foxx.

  7. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:51 am:

    Mark Kirk should be pulling for Alvarez.

    If Foxx doesn’t win, there won’t be an African-American at the top of the ticket in Cook County, let alone Illinois. It’s a Presidential election but no Barrack Obama and Illinois is a pretty safely blue state. African-Americans will still vote heavily for the Dems but, as 2004 (and 2014) showed, it’s as much about turnout.

  8. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:52 am:

    ===Donna More is eminently more qualified than Foxx.===

    Really? How do?

    Make the case.

    Keep in mind, in a partisan Democratic Primary Election, just last cycle, More gave money to Rauner, an alleged Republican, and has given a great deal of monies to Republicans all along, unapologetically.

    Then there’s all the Casino business…

    So, make the case. The drive-by says zero.

    Make the case.

  9. - Original Rambler - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:53 am:

    Anonymous, Foxx inexperience as a prosecutor will matter little with Alvarez negatives so high. It’s going to be more about who is perceived as being better at protecting citizen rights without overly hamstringing law enforcement.

    RRW,where did you see those Dorothy Brown numbers?

  10. - NorthCenter - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 9:58 am:

    Donna More seems to be doing decently well with the black vote. Not to speculate too much… but Kim Foxx and Donna More are both black sounding names. That might cause more of a split vote between them allowing Alvarez to sweep up the white and Latino vote.

  11. - Fortress - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 10:20 am:

    It’s tough to handicap the SA’s race because it’s hard to establish turnout models.

    Will African-Americans be fired up by the McDonald shooting and make up close to half of the primary electorate? Will the hotly contested Republican presidential inspire ticket-splitters to pull GOP ballots, denying Alvarez important suburban votes? What if Hilary and Sanders are still fighting it out…does that bring more white women to the polls, potentially helping More or Alvarez?

    This thing is very much up for grabs.

  12. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 10:46 am:

    –If Foxx doesn’t win, there won’t be an African-American at the top of the ticket in Cook County, let alone Illinois. –

    In the last four presidential-year general elections, statewide turnout has been consistent at 69% to 71%, according to ISBE.

    I don’t see a Cook state’s attorney race with a likely no-name GOP candidate moving the needle one way or the other.

    Illinois turns out about 20 points higher in presidential than in off-presidential years, regardless of who’s at the top or in the middle of the ticket. That’s trouble enough for Kirk.

  13. - Juice - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 10:50 am:

    OW- just a quick not. More is currently on the air. Not sure when she went up, or how many points are behind it, but she is up. (And I only have seen her ad on cable, so again, it may not be the large scale assault she would have to do to win.)

  14. - Century Club - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 10:55 am:

    Rambler, it’s up on the Trib website:

  15. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 11:18 am:

    - Juice -

    I’m in the Hinterlands of Kendall County.

    If it’s in local cable, I won’t see it, but if it makes WLS, WMAQ, WBBM, Fox32, I’ll catch it sometime.

    I haven’t yet. Thanks for the Heads Up.


  16. - The Man on 6 - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 11:22 am:

    This race frustrates me more than any other state or Cook County race this year. Anita Alvarez’s complicity with and/or intentional ignorance of police misconduct in Chicago should result in her ejection from office by the voters. The alternative raised by the Democratic Party is, to be sure, a somewhat experienced prosecutor, but Kim Foxx’s connection to Toni Preckwinkle (no matter how you view HER policies) makes it look like Foxx is nothing more than a partisan shill, and that may very well be true anyway.

    Here, an easy (and I would say necessary) target in Alvarez is once again made needlessly difficult by the IL Democratic Party’s eternal refusal to offer up or even to allow candidates who have not passed through the party machinery. This is a serious disservice to the voters, and it is far out of keeping with the reputation and stated ideology of the party nationally. None of this, of course, is new. Increasingly, however, Democratic voters are tiring of the status quo. The backlash against Pat Quinn should have been warning enough to the Democratic leadership, but apparently this is a lesson that will require even more serious losses for the people in power to really learn.

  17. - Uptown Lou - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 11:41 am:

    Rich nailed how this will play out. Foxx has the Momentum and will weave together a winning coalition of African Americans, progressives and young people. Alvarez will get attacked by both More and Foxx driving her vote share down across the board. More will be attacked for giving money to Republicans damaging her. Attacking Foxx’s Preckwinkle connection is weak sauce. Preckwinkle is one of the most popular politicians in Cook County. Once Foxx’s name id is above 50% it’s over.

  18. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 11:44 am:

    Wordslinger - it’s not a state’s attorney race that’s depressing turnout, it’s the marginalization (or perceived marginalization) of African-American pols that might. And an extra 2% AA turnout in Ohio would have given John Kerry the presidency. In any case, it won’t help.

  19. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 12:36 pm:

    Alvarez would be toast if Preckwinkle and Berrios had not served up such a lightweight as their endorsed alternative.

  20. - Amalia - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 12:38 pm:

    Preckwinkle popular? think back to posts on this board about the weakness of the political endorsement from Preckwinkle. she almost always picks the wrong horse. add to that the Taxin Toni unpopular tax adds and the episode of barging in to the prosecutor’s office to seemingly assert control over an office she does not control. I think the negative ads against Preckwinkle have barely started.

  21. - Uptown lou - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 12:57 pm:

    Preckwinkle does not have a great track record but among Democrats she is pretty damn popular. Plus Foxx has endorsements from every section of the county not just Preckwinkle. And anytime you have to explain an attack like Alvarez will, it won’t work.

    The attack on Alvarez is simple. She stands for the status quo and news flash the status quo isn’t very popular this election cycle. Plus she comes off entitled, angry and not likable at all.

    If tying Foxx to Prexkwinkle is all Alvarez got, she is in big trouble. Like I side once Foxx’s name if gets over 50% it’s game over.

  22. - crazybleedingheart - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 1:12 pm:

    Still hilarious that Anita’s insisting on a Preckwinkle referendum. Her Daley/Burke backing is such a glowing badge of honor for Alvarez.

    The party endorsement went to Foxx. That should certainly help with name recognition. Especially if MJM decides he still wants endorsements to mean something.

  23. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 1:17 pm:

    “I was more amused by the poll showing Cook County Circuit Clerk Dorothy Brown still in the lead despite all of her problems.”

    Brown is simply awful. Many Cook County Judges in the Daley Center insist that lawyers provide their chambers with courtesy copies of all pleadings because they have no confidence in the ability of the Circuit Court Clerk to deliver files to their courtrooms.

  24. - Anon - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 3:38 pm:

    Alvarez kinda reminds me of Dorothy Brown.
    They both make a good first impression. They look and sound the part, and have some charisma. They’ve got the tough Chicago lady vibe. They have a solid base of support.
    After they’ve been in office a while, disappointment sets in. But by then they’re entrenched and supplanting them is a major challenge.

  25. - Amalia - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 3:47 pm:

    a comparison of Anita Alvarez to Dorothy Brown is ridiculous. Brown has some big legal troubles. Alvarez does not.

  26. - Chicagonk - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 3:57 pm:

    OW - In my opinion, state’s attorney should be an apolitical office. I could care less whether she donated to Rauner. Kim Foxx is only running because Toni couldn’t run.

  27. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 4:15 pm:

    ===In my opinion, state’s attorney should be an apolitical office.===

    It’s not. Right or wrong it’s not.

    ===I could care less whether she donated to Rauner.===

    Democrats in a Democratic Primary sure might… see how that works?

    ===Kim Foxx is only running because Toni couldn’t run.===

    You base this on… what? LOL

  28. - West Side The Best Side - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 4:25 pm:

    Toni’s not a lawyer so she can’t run for an office she wants to control down to the smallest detail. She continues to introduce herself as “President of Cook County” a non-existent position. She really thinks she is president and all other elected officials work for her. The members of the SAO are not “her troops” until she can get a person she controls in there, therefore Kim Foxx.

  29. - Anon - Tuesday, Feb 2, 16 @ 4:51 pm:

    And yet they’re both leading in the Tribune poll.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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