* The Democratic results match up somewhat closely with the poll we discussed the other day. And Sen. Kirk’s gonna win his primary, but check out the large number of undecideds and the high number of folks who don’t know enough about him to rate him after over 5 years in office. The GOP base isn’t totally in love with him…
Republican Senator Mark Kirk and Democratic U.S. Representative Tammy Duckworth are the clear early leaders in Illinois’ upcoming March 15 primary to be their party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Kirk, according to a poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
Both Republicans and Democrats feature contested primaries for their nominations, and the November Illinois contest is widely regarded to be one of the most competitive and pivotal contests in the fierce national battle for majority control of the U.S. Senate.
REPUBLICANS
• In the GOP race, Kirk is being challenged for re-nomination by Oswego business owner and conservative, James Marter. The poll found that 53 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they would vote for Kirk, compared to 14 percent who said they were for Marter. This left one-third, or 33 percent, who were still undecided.
The sample of 306 Republicans was part of a statewide poll of 1,000 registered voters taken Feb. 15-20. The Republican sample has a margin of error of 5.6 percent.
DEMOCRATS
• U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth from suburban Chicago is the leader, with 52 percent of self-identified Democratic primary voters, compared with 6 percent who said they would vote for Andrea Zopp, head of the Chicago Urban League, and 4 percent who said they would vote for Illinois State Sen. Napoleon Harris of Harvey. The remaining 37 percent said they were still undecided in this race.
The sample of 1,000 Illinois registered voters contained 422 who said they would vote in the Democratic primary and those findings have a margin of error of 4.7 percent.
“These results provide just a snapshot of public opinion in Illinois at this juncture, but it is a good indicator of where the races stand with three weeks to go before the vote,” said John S. Jackson, a visiting professor at the Institute and one of the designers of the poll. “Sen. Kirk and Rep. Duckworth were widely considered to be their parties’ leading candidates for the nomination, and so far they are living up to those expectations.”
U.S. SENATOR JOB APPROVALS
The poll asked all respondents how they felt about the state’s two U.S. Senators, Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Dick Durbin.
There were 39 percent of the total sample of 1,000 who approved of the job Kirk is doing, while 31 percent disapproved. There were 25 percent who said they did not know and 5 percent who said they neither approved nor disapproved.
Durbin won approval from 51 percent for the job he is doing. There were 34 percent who disapproved. Only 12 percent said they did not know what kind of job Durbin was doing, and 4 percent neither approved nor disapproved.
Jackson said “these results indicate that Sen. Kirk does have his critics, and that there is an unusually large number who say they do not know what kind of job he is doing. This is probably indicative of why he is being challenged in his own party.”
Crosstabs are here.
- LizPhairTax - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 1:07 pm:
Duckworth, Kirk both polling above 50
My Analysis: This will change in the General
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 1:11 pm:
Liz - very funny!
This is the same situation Kirk found himself in during the 2010 primary. No matter how many primary voters screamed “RINO”, he still beat the snot out of Patrick Hughes.
- Peets - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 1:12 pm:
good numbers for Kirk given all the naysayers out there, I think a moderate republican will alway suffer from low intensity within his base. that’s the challenge of being a successful moderate.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 1:12 pm:
What I have been harping on since first blogging here way back when - incumbents running for reelection, must reaffirm those who voted for them previously, what they had accomplished during their term in office.
The only pol always doing this perfectly is Durbin. Durbin ran outstanding incumbent ads in 2014. No one with a television didn’t know how much his service to Illinois was appreciated by voting citizens.
Sam McCann has a great incumbent ad out right now - kudos to him.
Kirk has had a need to tell his voting constituency why they need to repeat their vote this year, and cast it for him to return to DC. This year especially, Kirk has to tell his voter base what he has accomplished in spite of his illness and recuperation. Kirk’s stroke is well known and everyone voting this year, knows someone who has suffered a stroke. Consequently, they have real reasons and experiences to wonder how someone could have had this happen, AND be a good Illinois senator as well.
It is Kirk’s job to tell them the story of how he overcame a stroke AND deserves reelection. That will be the key to his success this year.
Oddly, he may face someone with her own story of physical challenge. Duckworth has shown us that she can live a full life in DC and raise a family. She is a winner on that front. She goes into this race against Kirk with a personal story that can match his, even if he comes out with a strong and compelling story of his own to tell Illinoisans.
The key here, is that Kirk is the incumbent and has built in advantages. He will need every advantage in order to keep his seat.
Tell us what you did in DC, Senator. Tell us how you overcame your physical challenge at the same time, Senator. Tell us what you will do for us in the next term, Senator.
Beating up Duckworth shouldn’t be his default position. Telling that 33% of undecided Republicans and Democrats what he has been doing SHOULD be his default position.
Or he will lose - easily.
- Chicagoman - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 2:23 pm:
I’m surprised Zopp is polling that low. It’s not surprising she’s losing, but after getting a fair amount of press coverage and buying some TV time, she’s barely beating Harris, who has been a nearly invisible candidate.
- Soccermom - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 2:43 pm:
At first glance, I was like — “In a head-to-head?”
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 2:52 pm:
Soccer - no, the numbers are right. Both got more than 50% in a head-to-head. The results were figured by Mike Noland’s pollster.
- paddyrollingstone - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 3:43 pm:
I still don’t understand why Andy Zopp made this race. Its not over yet but those numbers are beyond ugly.
- cannon649 - Tuesday, Feb 23, 16 @ 11:00 pm:
Harris will improve