* CBS 2…
Just west of Midway Airport, in the bungalow belt dominated by Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, some Democrats are defecting to The Donald.
“Right here, I’m a Donald Trump voter,” says retired city plumber Tom Izzo.
“So many Americans are out of job, but we got all these illegals working here. Something’s got to happen,” he says.
Izzo represents a bit of a trend. In 2008, just 6 percent of Chicago primary voters selected Republican ballots. This year, it’s up to 10 percent. And that’s not far away from the 13 percent back in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan attracted so-called blue collar Reagan Democrats.
An example: Gene Krupa, who usually votes Democrat.
“We need change, and Obama didn’t give us the change we needed,” he says.
OK, the station used citywide numbers, but it didn’t look at results in Madigan’s 22nd House District.
So, let’s take a look for ourselves, shall we?
* By far, the district’s two largest wards are 13 and 23. So, since I’m a one-person shop, let’s just look at those two wards.
In 2008, 5 percent of 13th Ward voters cast Republican ballots and 8 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)
In 2012, 8 percent of 13th Ward voters took GOP ballots and 17 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)
So far this year, 5.45 percent of 13th Ward voters have requested GOP ballots during early voting, and 14.48 percent of 23rd Ward voters have done the same. Click here for the official election board spreadsheet.
*** UPDATE *** Will Caskey took a look at the ward numbers and wrote this on Facebook…
VERY interesting Chicago early vote data courtesy of Rich Miller.
From the looks of it there are, so far, 8 wards with over twice the GOP vote share as citywide. This compares to 10 wards in 2012.
Additionally, the citywide R vote share in 2012 was 15 percent, as opposed to the current 8.73 percent.
In other words, There does NOT appear to be a surge in blue collar whites pulling Republican ballots instead of Democratic ones in Chicago. This is especially interesting as Trump tends to do the best with people who made up their minds earlier, then falls on Election Day.
So far these numbers would seem to favor Anita Alvarez in the Cook SA primary; even the heavily Republican 42nd Ward is producing a GOP vote share under 25 percent (it’s usually more like 40+%).
Basically the more white voters pull Democratic ballots, the better Alvarez should do.
So, the citywide trend appears to be (for now) exactly the opposite of what that CBS 2 report claims.