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*** UPDATED x1 *** Seeing what they want to see

Friday, Mar 11, 2016

* CBS 2

Just west of Midway Airport, in the bungalow belt dominated by Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, some Democrats are defecting to The Donald.

“Right here, I’m a Donald Trump voter,” says retired city plumber Tom Izzo.

“So many Americans are out of job, but we got all these illegals working here. Something’s got to happen,” he says.

Izzo represents a bit of a trend. In 2008, just 6 percent of Chicago primary voters selected Republican ballots. This year, it’s up to 10 percent. And that’s not far away from the 13 percent back in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan attracted so-called blue collar Reagan Democrats.

An example: Gene Krupa, who usually votes Democrat.

“We need change, and Obama didn’t give us the change we needed,” he says.

OK, the station used citywide numbers, but it didn’t look at results in Madigan’s 22nd House District.

So, let’s take a look for ourselves, shall we?

* By far, the district’s two largest wards are 13 and 23. So, since I’m a one-person shop, let’s just look at those two wards.

In 2008, 5 percent of 13th Ward voters cast Republican ballots and 8 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)

In 2012, 8 percent of 13th Ward voters took GOP ballots and 17 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)

So far this year, 5.45 percent of 13th Ward voters have requested GOP ballots during early voting, and 14.48 percent of 23rd Ward voters have done the same. Click here for the official election board spreadsheet.

*** UPDATE *** Will Caskey took a look at the ward numbers and wrote this on Facebook

VERY interesting Chicago early vote data courtesy of Rich Miller.

From the looks of it there are, so far, 8 wards with over twice the GOP vote share as citywide. This compares to 10 wards in 2012.

Additionally, the citywide R vote share in 2012 was 15 percent, as opposed to the current 8.73 percent.

In other words, There does NOT appear to be a surge in blue collar whites pulling Republican ballots instead of Democratic ones in Chicago. This is especially interesting as Trump tends to do the best with people who made up their minds earlier, then falls on Election Day.

So far these numbers would seem to favor Anita Alvarez in the Cook SA primary; even the heavily Republican 42nd Ward is producing a GOP vote share under 25 percent (it’s usually more like 40+%).

Basically the more white voters pull Democratic ballots, the better Alvarez should do.

So, the citywide trend appears to be (for now) exactly the opposite of what that CBS 2 report claims.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

23 Comments
  1. - X-prof - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:55 am:

    The drummer Gene Krupa was one of the greats. Born in Chicago, he died in 1973. It’s good to see he’s following the Chicago tradition of voting well past his death.


  2. - Lovie - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:55 am:

    Call me crazy, but I don’t see the trend.


  3. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:00 am:

    Tom Izzo? Gene Krupa?

    What do Ray Meyer and Buddy Rich have to say?


  4. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:03 am:

    Lovie, you’re not crazy, but the TV reporter borders on it.


  5. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:04 am:

    There will likely be plenty of voters who will vote against Trump, particularly Latinos and other minorities, to perhaps counter the angry white vote. How many Republicans are appalled at Trump and won’t vote for him?

    For what they’re worth, polls generally show Trump losing to Democrats and performing worse than other Republicans. The trail of Trump negatives is long and wide, for the General.


  6. - Mama - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:08 am:

    If people in Madigan’s ward pull Republican tickets in order to vote for Trump, where does that leave Madigan?


  7. - siriusly - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:14 am:

    Journalism schools used to teach statistics. Most broadcast reporters seem like they don’t even understand basic math. Why let the facts get in the way of a story?


  8. - MOON - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:18 am:

    MAMA

    In my opinion people who vote for Trump are the same people who would more than likely vote for Gonzalez. Thus, they probably would not have voted for Madigan.

    Madigan wins 70% to 30%.


  9. - DuPage Saint - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:18 am:

    Madigan’s will be left where he almost always been: Speaker of the House


  10. - Chicago 20 - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:28 am:

    Is this a Jay Latrine story?


  11. - Joe M - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:29 am:

    I heard a guy at the coffee shop say he was voting for Gonzalez instead of Madigan - that means Gonzalez must be winning!

    Funny thing, that same guy kept talking about how much he liked Rauner.


  12. - cgo75 - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:34 am:

    No worries for Madigan….I predict 88% to 12%


  13. - Magic carpet ride - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:51 am:

    Madigan will know if there is an uptick in R voters and there will be consequences.


  14. - TT - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 12:08 pm:

    I tried to dig into the numbers a little deeper to find any other evidence of a Trump-crossover trend…found mixed results.

    I think the best baseline comparison is ‘08 because both parties had contested presidential primaries still underway when Illinois voted in early February of that year.

    So I looked at the 19th and 41st Wards, both of which are home to a fair number of ticket-spltters. In the 19th Ward back in ‘08, about 9.5 percent of total the ballots pulled were Republican. This year, early voting is showing the potential for a big boost in GOP ballots: 18 percent of early voters have been Republican, so far in the 19th.

    However, the trend in the 41st Ward is heading in the opposite direction. In the ‘08 primary, 19 percent of total ballots pulled were Republican. But in early voting so far this year, the number of GOP ballots is at only 12 percent.

    So it’s hard to reach any difinitive conclusion. Also, it should be pointed out, we’re mixing apples and oranges a little bit: early voting numbers vs. total votes cast.


  15. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 12:10 pm:

    –Journalism schools used to teach statistics. Most broadcast reporters seem like they don’t even understand basic math.–

    Watch, listen or read any story over the last eight months on the so-called “budget impasse.”

    You want find a number in any of them.

    In budget stories. No numbers.

    Lutheran Social Services is being driven out of business, right now, because Gov. Rauner willfully is dishonoring state contracts.

    CSU, EIU and WIU are next.

    In any story, you won’t see a number attached to any of them, anywhere in Illinois media except right here.

    That’s why the governor is getting away with this reactionary lunacy.

    Because it’s all about “personality conflicts,” like you see on “Keeping Up with the Kardashians.”


  16. - Century Club - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:03 pm:

    I think making claims based on 2008 vs. 2016 is suspect at best, even if Rich’s numbers had shown an uptick in R primary voters. Senator Obama was hugely popular among independents and was a native son running for the Presidency. I would assume that Republican primary voters would have been lower than usual in 2008.

    Also, Republican primaries have set records for turnout across the country - which could be Regan Democrats or could just be massive interest in the Republican primary.

    But hey, why let thoughtful consideration get in the way of a newspaper article?


  17. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:30 pm:

    Thanks for the data, Rich. This is fascinating and speaks to my IO column a few days ago.

    From the looks of it there are, so far, 8 wards with over twice the GOP vote share as citywide. This compares to 10 wards in 2012.

    Additionally, the citywide R vote share in 2012 was 15 percent, as opposed to the current 8.73 percent.

    In other words, There does NOT appear to be a surge in blue collar whites pulling Republican ballots instead of Democratic ones in Chicago. This is especially interesting as Trump tends to do the best with people who made up their minds earlier, then fall on Election Day.

    So far these numbers would seem to favor Anita Alvarez in the Cook SA primary; even the heavily Republican 42nd Ward is producing a GOP vote share under 25 percent (it’s usually more like 40+%)


  18. - Allen D - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:57 pm:

    There is also the fact of being “Labeled” in a GOP election… many in my shop are voting for Trump however they are not voting in the primary due to the fact of having to Declare the party affiliation. call it what you will but many feel the need to be closet GOP rather then called out in a meeting or at work… I think there will be a surprise actually on election day and the numbers will be staggering in Trumps favor…


  19. - Fred - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:17 pm:

    @Will

    I agree that this is potentially a good sign for Alvarez. But I also agree with @TT…isn’t ‘08 a better comparison year than ‘12, given that both parties had prez primaries going that year?


  20. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:10 pm:

    –There is also the fact of being “Labeled” in a GOP election… many in my shop are voting for Trump however they are not voting in the primary due to the fact of having to Declare the party affiliation. call it what you will but many feel the need to be closet GOP rather then called out in a meeting or at work..–

    Allen, please explain how pulling a GOP ballot would hurt you working in the executive branch of the Rauner administration.

    Baby, you’ve got the kook.


  21. - JS Mill - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:53 pm:

    “Baby, you’ve got the kook.”

    Now second on my favorite list, but #1 is the immortal- “I can’t get me no get right”

    Great stuff.

    “will be staggering in Trumps favor… ”

    The dumbing down of America and the anti intellectual movement continue to pick up speed at a break neck pace….


  22. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:06 pm:

    @Fred-

    Rule of thumb, never use 08 election data for anything. ESPECIALLY in Illinois, Obama screwed everything up.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:32 pm:

    Will Caskey - 1, CBS - 0

    If Rauner is a Republican, more GOP ballots pulled the better, right?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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