* Let’s circle back to the Illinois Department of Revenue’s use of dynamic scoring that helped kill off a progressive income tax. You’ll recall that the scoring came up with these results…
After 14 years of implementation of this tax policy (year 2030) the main economic effects of this tax policy are:
* Disposable Personal Income decreases $2.8 Billion per year compared with the baseline scenario (current conditions and economic trend).
* Real Gross Domestic Product of the state decreases $1.7 Billion compared with the baseline scenario (current conditions and economic trend).
* Total Employment decreases almost 18,000 jobs compared with the baseline scenario (current conditions and economic trend).
* Governing magazine…
While dynamic models do not generate a margin-of-error estimate for dynamic effects, research has shown that traditional revenue estimates carry an error rate of around 3 percent.
* Wordslinger did the math…
The projections from “Gov. Rauner’s Department of Revenue” are ridiculously precise, given the scales of the base numbers and all the dynamics that go into economic forecasting.
Wow, those guys are goooooood. Who’s doin’ the modelin’ and projectin’ — freakin’ sharks with freakin’ lasers on their heads?
Yet not even ballpark projections on the ROI for The Turnaround Agenda. Go figure. Or not, in this case.
I’m thinking they just made it up on the fly and nobody put the “work” to the Absurdity Test. They were supposed to add some zeroes on the back ends of those “projections.”
And he didn’t even factor into the equation that these projections cover a time period of 14 years.
There is simply no way to say with any sort of authority that these statistically tiny predicted changes have any solid significance.