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Unclear on the history

Friday, May 27, 2016

* Tom Corfman

Who does the Journal think is winning, anyway?

“Gov. Bruce Rauner has the most thankless job in politics: trying to rescue Illinois from its economic and fiscal morass,” according to an editorial by the Wall Street Journal, which celebrates his defeat of an override of his veto of a bill mandating arbitration of a long-running union contract dispute.

“Rauner won in 2014 on a reform platform, but the political lifers in Springfield are fighting him like they’re defending Stalingrad,” the newspaper said.

Wait, didn’t the Russians win the Battle of Stalingrad?

The editorial is here.

* Meanwhile, Greg Hinz asks if Speaker Madigan is losing his mojo

But it appears this time that Madigan’s odds of winning are less, maybe substantially less, than they usually have been. The sauce has lost some of its zing. Signs are growing that the era in which the speaker’s tail wagged Springfield’s dog is seeing its limits.

My specific reference is to the proposed fiscal 2017 budget that the speaker absolutely shoved through his chamber last night, ignoring good rules of comity, proper parliamentary procedure and, perhaps, smart politics. It created such a stink that Madigan today agreed to reconsider and pass the budget again. […]

The bill passed 63 to 53, with seven of Madigan’s Democrats either voting no or abstaining. That kind of thing never happens in Springfield. On today’s rerun, the margin was even narrower, 61-53—just two votes more than a majority, and 10 short of what would be needed to overturn a gubernatorial veto. […]

Even if Senate Democrats decide to suck it up and pass the budget—and that’s likely, not certain—Rauner aides are promising a veto, and I believe them. The rookie governor finally has learned some of the tricks of his new trade, one well-connected lobbyist tells me. “They (now) understand the need for realistic management of the budget, instead of the stopgap” approach the state has been dealing with over the past year, that source says. […]

It’s still far too early to say how this all is going to turn out in Springfield. It could be a long, hot summer. But it’s fair to say that least a wisp of change is in the air.

I dunno. A half dozen HDems didn’t vote for the approp bills last year. And the total went down between Wednesday and Thursday because of absences, not some increasing member revolt.

And I don’t know how the administration is gonna manage a budget without a budget.

As far as the Senate goes… well, you’ll have to subscribe.

* What I do believe is that Madigan has lost his sense of proportion. As the clock ticks down, he should try to forge a compromise as he’s done many, many times in the past (remember how the CTA’s unions were whacked hard by Madigan to obtain a $500 million tax hike for the RTA?). The closer it gets to May 31st, the more eager everybody’s gonna be for a deal.

What was the saying on that old poster? “War is Not Healthy for Children and Other Living Things.”

- Posted by Rich Miller        

44 Comments
  1. - ILPundit - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:44 am:

    With all due respect, Rich, its not like anyone is “going to war” if there is no budget deal. We’ve been in the middle of a war for a year. There’s nothing to avoid, we’re already there, and have been for quite a while.


  2. - Ahoy! - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:47 am:

    Personally I think Madigan is losing his mind. I’m not sure if he’s losing his mojo as he seems to be getting what he wants, no budget and an extended war. Sometimes I think the Governor is winning based upon the irrational actions by Madigan and his top staff. However, he is getting what he wants, no budget and an extended drawn out war with the Governor.

    We might now know who wins until November when we see if the people of Illinois continue to vote for Madigan’s minions.

    The only way out until then might be for the House Democrats to select a new leader.


  3. - From the 'Dale to HP - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:48 am:

    ===The closer it gets to May 31st, the more eager everybody’s gonna be for a deal.===

    But it didn’t happen last year. Seems like everyone is in for a penny, in for a pound.

    Most signs point to Rauner/GOP losing. Maybe they could turn this around, but without the votes… not sure how.


  4. - Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:48 am:

    ===With all due respect===

    Bite me.


  5. - Chungas revenge - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:49 am:

    ” war is not healthy for children and other living things”

    But it’s GREAT for business!

    And we have a businessman as our governor


  6. - Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:53 am:

    I’m sure everyone remembers vividly the platform that Rauner ran on during the general, the one where he failed to ever provide any specifics.


  7. - Honeybear - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:55 am:

    WE’RE GOING TO WAR” Some Republicans seemed almost downright giddy after yesterday afternoon’s leaders meeting.

    Right there. right there. That is the lesson that this nation has not learned yet. War is horrific in any form. This is the malignant callousness produced by privilege. The state workforce, the mainstreet local economies will be thrown into the maw. Oh, my dear God. I had thought there was reason left in people. I even thought most likely that at worst AFSCME would be thrown under the bus. But with this, it is the state, the entire state is to go down.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:55 am:

    ===Most signs point to Rauner/GOP losing. Maybe they could turn this around, but without the votes… not sure how.===

    If anything, right now, Raunerites are likely to get Sen. Sullivan’s and Rep. Frank’s.

    They’re “two up” out of the gate(?)

    Something to really consider before counting either side as “losing”


  9. - tobor - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:57 am:

    Who would Madigan compromise with, Rauner? What would a Rauner compromise look like?


  10. - AC - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:58 am:

    https://illinoisepi.wordpress.com/2016/05/24/illinois-has-the-highest-unemployment-in-the-nation/

    Sure, the Governor is winning! /s


  11. - The Dude Abides - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:59 am:

    I still think an agreement could be reached if the collective bargaining stuff was dropped. There is a strong opinion among many Democrats that the collective bargaining reform has less to do with improving the economy and more to do with increasing business profits. The Governor’s people haven’t been able to produce numbers persuading Democrats to think otherwise.
    I agree that Madigan accomplished nothing positive in ramming that odd budget bill through the other day.


  12. - cgo75 - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:59 am:

    There’s absolutely no doubt that the GOP is losing. If there were signs they weren’t, I believe we’d be seeing signs of compromise. The Democrats must still feel very confident of their position and potential gains come November. The Speaker is still in control.


  13. - Anonymous user - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 9:59 am:

    Not surprisingly, Hinz’s column is hot garbage. He could have just had his straw man “Is Mike Madigan starting to lose his stuff?” headline and then just simply put the word No and called it a day.


  14. - Earnest - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:03 am:

    >* What I do believe is that Madigan has lost his sense of proportion. As the clock ticks down, he should try to forge a compromise as he’s done many, many times in the past

    I hope you’re correct. Knowing and seeing less, my perception is that Rauner wants to continue to destroy higher education and human services and would just keep moving the goalposts if Madigan tries to compromise. Getting people to focus on Madigan is just more (effective) distraction from that fact. If it was ever going to happen, I think it would have been up to a small group of House Republicans to make things happen.


  15. - Daniel Plainview - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:04 am:

    - CTA’s unions were whacked hard by Madigan to obtain a $500 million tax hike for the RTA? -

    Proportion? What part of that situation involved trying to appease a Governor who wants to gut unions and is currently holding a budget hostage as part of that agenda?

    Not to mention deliberately destroying social service infrastructure as a parallel goal?

    It’s not as if the Democrats are asking Rauner to expand workers rights in exchange for a budget. They’re asking for a budget.


  16. - Winnin' - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:06 am:

    Perhaps the primary reason Madigan and the House Dems passed a spending bill is to say they did.
    Guessing that, to Madigan, it would be unconscionable to fail to not pass a budget bill prior to May 31.
    Also guessing that he does not care whether the Senate passed the exact same bill.
    It’s a starting point.
    Just doing their jobs — unlike the governor.


  17. - Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:10 am:

    Let’s face it, the Dems hate the middle class.

    Very clear.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:11 am:

    ===Perhaps the primary reason Madigan and the House Dems passed a spending bill is to say they did.===

    Yep, that was always the play.

    Pass “something”, leave it up to the Senate, and maybe, not necessarily, the Governor.

    Can’t imagine the Senate not doing a play similar.

    The problem with that?

    No governing going on. By anyone.


  19. - Mike Cirrincione - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:13 am:

    To correct the Wall Street Journal:

    Bruce ran on *Quinn bad*….*No social issues*…and his wife is a Democrat.

    Thats it.

    After he got elected, then he told us what he stood for.

    I gotta give Trump credit, his opinion changes hourly, but at least we know what it is.


  20. - Oswego Willy - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:17 am:

    The “- @MisterJayEm - Rule” in full effect today…


  21. - Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:18 am:

    In a blood feud, only winning counts


  22. - Honeybear - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:25 am:

    This is turning into Conrad’s Heart of Darkness. “The horror, the horror”


  23. - SAP - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:26 am:

    From the Journal’s editorial: “Mr. Rauner has used legal duct tape to keep essential services running, and the state has managed to spend some $35 billion even without a budget. Illinois citizens don’t seem to miss the nonessential services…” I can think of at least 84 social service providers who would take serious issue with that disgusting statement.


  24. - cdog - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:29 am:

    proportion? mojo? Maybe relativism and prudence?

    No one expects Madigan to “gut unions.”

    I do strongly feel that labor/unions/afscme should share in the sacrifice that is needed.

    I am completely pro-labor but at the same time against a destructive sense of entitlement.

    Taxpayers should not be expected to shoulder the entire burden.

    In my world (ha!) state employee health insurance would be less cadillac and at the same time a legislative reformation of health insurance benefits* for Illinois residents.

    (*day one/dollar one–pcp visits, generic on-going meds, non-acute crap covered. As opposed to my current $500/mo and no coverage until I spend down the $5000 deductible. Providers should side with this too as their traffic will continue to go down for non-acute treatments. /rant over)


  25. - Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:33 am:

    Unless Madigans troops eventually turn on him, he will not allow Rauner to “win”. Unlike Michael Corleone, this IS personal.


  26. - steve schnorf - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:35 am:

    Maybe each of the two principals knows what the other means by “compromise”, but none of us do, and that makes it hard for the average citizen to know who’s the good guy and who’s the bad guy. Is the Governor’s bottom line more reasonable than the Speaker’s, or vice versa? Furthermore, they can’t tell us without ending up negotiating against themselves. That leaves each of them talking in broad platitudes while we crave specifics. None of us want to pass up real opportunities to “improve Illinois business climate”, but neither do we want to do “great harm” to the middle class. Not until the principals can meet, talk straight and civilly to each other, with the secure knowledge that what’s being talked about stays in the room until an agreement is reached,can this be worked out. I don’t see either of these men running up the white flag, do any of you? The trust factor necessary for face to face negotiations doesn;’t seem to be there. Looks like a long summer, fall, winter, spring….


  27. - @MisterJayEm - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:38 am:

    “I don’t know how the administration is gonna manage a budget without a budget.”

    This is the root of the current crisis.

    Article VIII, Section 2(a) of the Illinois Constitution mandates that the governor prepare and submit a state budget to the General Assembly. http://www.ilga.gov/commission/lrb/con8.htm

    Until the governor fulfills his constitutional obligation, everything else is mere theater.

    – MrJM


  28. - Honeybear - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:39 am:

    Illinois citizens don’t seem to miss the nonessential services…

    Malignant callousness born of privilege and blind to consequences.


  29. - steve schnorf - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:46 am:

    This is one of those times when Honeybear is spot on. The current situation, except for those very directly affected by it, very quickly became the new normal for everyone else. It’s just not an issue or interest for the majority of the citizenry.


  30. - DuPage Moderate - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:52 am:

    Keep it up GOP. I’m not in favor of all of Rauner’s plans, but I’m definitely less in favor of Madigan’s stalling and over spending. Enough! As a long time union member, everyone needs to give a bit. This state is sinking quickly under Madigan’s grip.


  31. - Angry Republican - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:06 am:

    I think “War of the Roses” is a more appropriate analogy. I am referring to the 1989 movie with Kathleen Turner, Michael Douglass and Danny DeVito.


  32. - zatoichi - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:09 am:

    Two plate spinners are on stage ready for the competition to start. The crowd is set. As the curtain opens, One spin master says “Someone get me some plates”. The other spin meister says “Thought the rules said you gotta at least bring a set.” First guy:”Hey where are the sticks to spin the plates on?” Meister replies:”No sticks? I got an old set off stage, but it is show time, dude”.


  33. - Rich Miller - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:10 am:

    ===There’s nothing to avoid===

    That was why I responded so harshly. Should’ve made it more clear.

    This war was preventable. Rauner made big, big BIG mistakes early on (as chronicled here in detail on a daily basis), but I believe he legitimately tried to get a deal this month. All it took to see that was two eyes and an open mind. You apparently have neither.


  34. - DuPage - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:16 am:

    Madigan is going to absolutely hold the line against the Rauner attack, if Madigan starts retreating then Rauner will intensify his attacks and add more hostages as he goes along. If Rauner is adding new demands today as preconditions to a budget agreement, it is obvious Rauner wants no budget agreement.


  35. - Excessively Rabid - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:27 am:

    “…to say”


  36. - Daniel Plainview - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:30 am:

    - All it took to see that was two eyes and an open mind. -

    Some details on what exactly Rauner was willing to give up would help. I mean, if it would make the Speaker seem totally unreasonable, they should share it with the world, right?

    Or is this just another brilliant OODA loop?


  37. - crazybleedingheart - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:31 am:

    ==This war was preventable. Rauner made big, big BIG mistakes early on (as chronicled here in detail on a daily basis), but I believe he legitimately tried to get a deal this month.==

    Yeah, it was preventable all right. It’s also endable.

    But that requires the person who has lost, as in does not have as many points on the board and no path to get them, to acknowledge defeat and accept it somewhat gracefully. Not demand “agreement” on his terms just because he is both losing and also used to also lying to himself about never having failed.

    Learn how to lose gracefully, Gov. Desperately haranguing the refs to review their call and force the game into OT isn’t it.


  38. - A guy - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:31 am:

    == steve schnorf - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 10:46 am:

    This is one of those times when Honeybear is spot on. The current situation, except for those very directly affected by it, very quickly became the new normal for everyone else. It’s just not an issue or interest for the majority of the citizenry.===

    I agree with most of the substance of this. I would however add that it’s not that Republicans are heartless cretins, it’s because far fewer of these services are in the areas of their lives residentially or even their mobile circles. The concentration of many of these services are outside of their concentration areas.

    Crises is some places. Minor inconveniences in others, virtually invisible in others. The university towns being the most visible (and prison towns) for some members. Outside of that, most of the most difficult situations are in the areas of the majority. Ironically, a lot of the “target” or “swing” areas can be perceived as less effected. For those areas or districts, the idea of a significant raise in taxes is more disruptive than any loss of service.

    It’s a pickle. A deal has to be made. No side can entirely brush off issues that are important to the other, or there will be no deal. Everyone’s got to walk away from the table equally unhappy for the foreseeable future or this all just goes from worst to whatever is beyond worst.


  39. - walker - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:31 am:

    Schnorf plus 2

    We don’t know enough

    Many others don’t care enough


  40. - crazybleedingheart - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:36 am:

    ==If Rauner is adding new demands today as preconditions to a budget agreement, it is obvious Rauner wants no budget agreement.==

    He wants a win. Which sounds like polite, productive politics.

    But that is not the game he has played.

    He dragged the Zero-Sum box out of the closet, blew the dust off, and sat down.

    Now he wants a result as if it was all just tiddlywinks, as well as a participation trophy to show the WSJ ed board.

    No.

    You were wrong. Eat the crow, do your job, spend your summer drafting your next awful plot.


  41. - Anonymous - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 11:51 am:

    glad i dont by the journal..RAUNER IS THE WORST GOVERNOR IN THE HISTROY OF ILLINOIS


  42. - RNUG - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 12:10 pm:

    == It’s just not an issue or interest for the majority of the citizenry. ==

    Steve is spot on. Heck, I’m a political junkie, but the only personal effects I’ve seen are no license plate renewal notices and some delayed health care payments (which is nothing new). I’ve noticed a few closed Interstate rest areas and a State park or two.

    In my circle of family and friends, some job anxiety among those who still have state jobs, and a bit of effect on some receiving welfare benefits. Relatively speaking, minor inconveniences.

    People don’t pay attention unless they are directly affected. Nothing is going to change until there is a real meltdown that leads to public outrage.


  43. - AlfondoGonz - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 2:05 pm:

    War is no place for a child, especially when he is armed with an AK and a smile.


  44. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, May 27, 16 @ 4:28 pm:

    ==fulfills his constitutional obligation==

    2014 out of balance budget
    2015 out of balance budget
    2016 no balanced budget or budget
    2017 no balanced budget or budget (yet)

    For 4 years, the GA has not fulfilled their constitutional obligation under Article VIII, Section 2(b) of the Illinois Constitution. Even when they had Democratic governor and the full tax increase.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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