Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Madigan’s actions show no fear of Rauner
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Madigan’s actions show no fear of Rauner

Sunday, May 29, 2016

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

After what happened last week it’s more clear than ever that Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan has no fear of what Gov. Rauner could do to his members this fall. And Madigan has even less fear of what his members could do to him.

As you certainly know by now, Madigan lumped together a $40 billion appropriations plan with what the governor’s budget office says is a $7.5 billion hole in it. The budget office claims the bill would require a 5.5 percent personal income tax rate to sustain and the state comptroller estimates would create $15 billion in backlogged bills and an 8-9 month payment delay.

Madigan’s move was at least partially designed to put Republicans on the defense yet again this fall for voting against their local schools and colleges, facilities and various government programs.

Republican threats to tie Madigan’s “most unbalanced budget in Illinois history” around his members’ necks did not phase him. Madigan’s own polling reportedly shows Donald Trump doing pretty well everywhere except Cook County and that didn’t budge him. And just about all of Madigan’s most politically vulnerable members voted for the highly controversial legislation - another very clear signal that his political side doesn’t care a whit about Rauner’s threats to retaliate.

Yes, the Republicans have their “Bad King Madigan” bogeyman, the Democrats concede, and the Republicans used it again last week in tens of thousands of robocalls targeted at seven House Democratic incumbents. The calls claimed that the members backed “Speaker Mike Madigan’s job-crushing, $1,000 tax hike on Illinois families,” which would also “increase Illinois’ debt by $7 billion and force record high income tax rates.”

The Republicans also released results of a statewide “flash poll” conducted last Thursday night which they claim validates their planned messaging against Madigan and the Democrats this fall. 74 percent of the 884 voters who responded to the Victory Phones poll said they opposed “a budget that would spend $7.2 billion more than what state takes in and force a 47 percent tax increase on all Illinoisans.” Another 57 percent said they opposed a “state budget that includes a half billion dollar Chicago Public School bailout.” 71 percent said “rank-and-file Democrats should break with the Speaker and work with the Governor to balance the budget even if it means compromising on issues favored by labor unions.” And 61 percent said they’d be less likely to vote for a legislator who “voted for a budget with a $7 billion deficit that would force income tax rates over 5.5 percent.”

To the Republicans, those are slam-dunk issues that will resonate strongly with voters. The Democrats, they say, simply don’t understand the public’s mood. They believe they have the Democrats exactly where they want them and that Madigan has ironically put them in that position by passing the unbalanced budget and refusing to negotiate on the governor’s economic reforms that Rauner claims will help revitalize the state’s economy.

But Madigan’s side points to Rauner’s ever-tanking poll ratings as proof they can use him against Republican candidates, and they’ll toss in Donald Trump wherever the presidential candidate is unpopular.

And while voters always say they want a balanced budget, they almost always recoil when told what that would actually entail. Details of the $7.5 billion in cuts which “the Trump/Rauner Republicans demanded” via the governor’s expected veto will make for some grisly campaign advertisements. The Senate Democrats did pretty much just that to the Republicans during the last presidential campaign cycle and picked up seats despite raising the income tax by 67 percent - which is a big reason why the governor has twice now refused to submit a truly balanced budget. Once the Republicans vote against overriding Rauner’s budget veto for the second year in a row, they’ll be on the record for huge cuts.

The governor has said for over a year that Madigan’s Democrats privately tell him they’re ready to work with him. But there’s little evidence that they’ll work with Rauner at the expense of crossing Madigan. Just the opposite, in fact. They could’ve killed that budget bill and changed the course of Illinois history by forcing Madigan to the bargaining table, but they stuck with their guy.

Madigan was in a good mood Thursday night as he dined with some of his members. Gov. Rauner was also said to be at peace. Now that an all-out political war is all but certain, they can come to terms with it and steel themselves for the future.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

15 Comments
  1. - cdog - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 2:22 pm:

    “Madigan was in a good mood Thursday night as he dined with some of his members.”

    His tactics are for sure above my pay grade. For the sake of all who need relief from this mess, and are trusting him to lead past it, I hope his plan works.


  2. - Norseman - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 2:23 pm:

    Is there an expectation that regardless of what compromise they agree to, Rauner and the GOP will use Rauner’s millions to try and hang the tax albatross around Democrat necks. The response to that expectation is to avoid letting Rauner claim any victory.


  3. - AC - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 2:47 pm:

    ==a budget with a $7 billion deficit that would force income tax rates over 5.5 percent==

    Would it really be both? I thought it was either a tax hike or a $7 billion defict.


  4. - Captain Illini - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 3:39 pm:

    I believe - even though I’m a conservative - that the Speaker has the winning hand so far…and the Gov’s is holding a pair of two’s and trying to bluff. I cannot get my head around the Gov’s strategy, other than cleaning house of the GOP and planning to switch parties before the next election…


  5. - Formerly Known As... - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 4:40 pm:

    No fear of Rauner, and no concern for Illinois.

    Failure to pass a balnced budget 4 straight years. 14 years of deficits.

    No compromise. No reforms. No change. No progress.


  6. - an independent - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 5:12 pm:

    I just don’t understand the Republican point of view. What is to stop the Governor from simply using the item veto or the reduction veto? Madigan does not have the votes to override. Why the outrage? Or, is the real issue that the Democrats won’t throw labor under the bus for what we all know is a necessary and inevitable tax increase?


  7. - Tito - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 6:34 pm:

    My money is on Rauner in the long haul. Younger, better financed and actions that spring from ideas that can bring true change.
    Madigan=old dude who would change nothing.


  8. - Anonymous - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 6:46 pm:

    ==I just don’t understand the Republican point of view. What is to stop the Governor from simply using the item veto or the reduction veto?==

    He says it’s “too hard”.


  9. - RJN - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 6:56 pm:

    Amendatory vetoes only require a majority to override.


  10. - Pot calling kettle - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 7:26 pm:

    ===What is to stop the Governor from simply using the item veto or the reduction veto? ===

    The voters hate tax hikes, but they hate actual cuts even more. If the governor used his line item veto, all the ads he could buy would not dig the Republicans out of the hole.


  11. - an independent - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 7:58 pm:

    true of a reduction veto, rjn, not true with a line item veto, it takes 3/5ths


  12. - IRLJ - Sunday, May 29, 16 @ 8:16 pm:

    House Democrats do not have a functioning super-majority.
    Hence, stalemate.
    Nothing will happen until and unless the Dems pick up seats.
    Or, until Republicans who until now have been bought and paid-for by Rauner, revolt.


  13. - Tax$ForBuyngCivilization - Monday, May 30, 16 @ 12:32 am:

    ===They could’ve killed that budget bill and changed the course of Illinois history by forcing Madigan to the bargaining table, but they stuck with their guy.===

    I think Rauner’s behavior over the last two years has made it very difficult for any legislator to trust him, and more to the point I don’t think there’s really any cuts that any of the Democratic legislators really want to make in that budget.

    It’s not really a compromise when it’s a debate about which fingers to cut off.


  14. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 30, 16 @ 12:34 am:

    ==Nothing will happen until and unless the Dems pick up seats.==

    Respectfully, Madigan is not going ram through another tax increase on a party line vote. More seats for Dems will not change anything, because the number of seats is not the obstruction.


  15. - kemald - Monday, May 30, 16 @ 3:31 am:

    A veto of an appropriation measure requires a three-fifths majority to override, whereas a reduction veto or can be overridden by a simple majority. Illinois Constitution, Article IV, Section 9 (d): “An item reduced in amount shall be returned to the house in which it originated and may be restored to its original amount in the same manner as a vetoed bill except that the required record vote shall be a majority of the members elected to each house.”


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Open thread and another LSSI reminder
* In defense of Mary Todd Lincoln on her 200th birthday
* Caption contest!
* Rauner says he'll file end of term report, clear clemency backlog
* Question of the day: Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Pritzker roundup
* Cook County Public Guardian sues DCFS: "Abject moral and human rights failure"
* Mendoza signature clearance rate is high during first round
* Your holiday season moment of Zen
* Pritzker criticized over lack of Active Transportation Alliance members on his transition committee
* Color me skeptical
* Pritzker heading to White House today
* Sen. Schimpf wants Satanic sculpture removed from rotunda as Rep. Bryant introduces condemnation resolution
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller