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Silver: Trump is gonna get trounced in Illinois

Thursday, Jun 30, 2016

* Pearson writes about Nate Silver’s latest prediction that Donald Trump has just a 20 percent chance of winning the election. Here’s the relevant Illinois part

Illinois traditionally trends Democratic in presidential election years, and Silver’s polls-only forecast shows the state would be the 10th-most lopsided of states going to Clinton, favoring her by at least 18 percent and putting her odds of winning its 20 electoral votes at 97 percent.

In electoral-vote rich states of California and New York, Clinton’s odds are rated even better, at close to 99 percent. But if the election were held today, Silver said, Clinton’s odds in her birth state of Illinois would be 98.7 percent.

No surprise there. What’ll be most interesting to people like me is how Trump will do in contested legislative and congressional districts.

* Related…

* Sneed exclusive: Ditka politely declines Trump’s invitation: In an email to the Trump folks, Sneed stated, “Mike Ditka said he’d love to speak although he hadn’t heard from you guys yet, how about a few words from your boss. It could be great!” Thus, in a three-way conference call orchestrated by Sneed at 2:15 p.m., Trump officially invited Ditka — a huge Trump fan — to speak at the Republican convention next month.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


63 Comments
  1. - CharlieKratos - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:16 am:

    Jill Stein says what?


  2. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:16 am:

    Kirk certainly made a decision on Trump regarding his race. So did Dold in his swing district.

    Who else is in the barrel?


  3. - The Captain - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:19 am:

    Prediction: Trump will play more in mail than TV where you can specifically target households that may be more receptive to the Trump or anti-Trump message.


  4. - Formerly Known as Frenchie M - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:25 am:

    Fingers crossed that Trump in Illinois becomes the gift that keeps giving.

    I mean, it’s theoretically possible that if Trump wins in November — and does a good job for the next two years — that Rauner could ride his coattails to victory in 2018. Theoretically.

    I mean, as Trump points out today: “Who the heck even knows what ‘Xenophobe’ means?” I’m guessing many Rauner voters don’t — so that’s … a positive.

    Right?


  5. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:27 am:

    ===Trump will play more in mail than TV where you can specifically target households===

    Not in Illinois, he won’t.


  6. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:28 am:

    ===theoretically possible that if Trump wins in November — and does a good job for the next two years — that Rauner could ride his coattails to victory in 2018===

    Doubtful. Presidential midterms generally lean away from the incumbent. And it’ll be amplified here in Illinois if Trump wins.


  7. - Michael Westen - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:29 am:

    Silver really went out on a limb with that bold prediction.


  8. - Chungas revenge - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:29 am:

    This is the same guy who predicted Trump had a 5% chance to win the Republican nomination. I don’t think Trump will win Illinois. I think it’s just too early to make ridiculous predictions.


  9. - The Captain - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:30 am:

    Trump still has pockets of strong support, I suspect that smart campaigns won’t want to alienate those voters with a TV message when mail is available. We’ll see though, I’ve been wrong about plenty of things.


  10. - The Great and All Knowing Oz - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:30 am:

    The Silent Majority will rise up in this coming election year and it won’t be for mrs.clinton.


  11. - Gruntled University Employee - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:30 am:

    Frenchie,

    My guess would be that since off year elections tend to go against the incumbent, IF Trump were to win the 2016 election, Rauner would be washed out to sea in the 2018 Democratic Tsunami.


  12. - Gruntled University Employee - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:31 am:

    Rich beat me to it while I was looking up how to spell Tsunami.


  13. - Scamp640 - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:32 am:

    @ The Great and All Knowing Oz. If the Silent Majority rises up and votes for Trump, we as a country and civilization are doomed.


  14. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:33 am:

    ===The Silent Majority will rise up===

    Demographics are a whole lot different in this country than they were when Nixon won.


  15. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:34 am:

    So who is actually showing up to appear on stage at this convention? Clint Eastwood’s chair?


  16. - Bronco Bahma - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:35 am:

    There is no silent “majority” of Trump voters. Well, not in Illinois and probably many other places.


  17. - Wensicia - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:37 am:

    Trump’s undisciplined campaign, what there is of it, is losing him points in the polls each week. He’s a train wreak and every Republican’s best bet is to jump off before the election, as did Kirk. But, if Republican voters stay home because they won’t vote for him or Hillary, there’s the likely damage in local races.


  18. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:43 am:

    How many electoral votes does the Silent Majority have?

    Because presidential elections are won and lost with the electoral votes among a handful of swing states.

    Great web site, 270towin.com, to track the presidential race. Lot of historic content.


  19. - jack28 - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:44 am:

    Frenchie: Illinois has not been in play in Presidential elections since maybe the Reagan years. Only presidential advertising in the Chicago market is directed to Indiana.

    Also, Rauner said he’s not going to the Republican convention, and, as others have noted, Kirk and Dold have disowned Orange Face.

    I don’t know where Orange Face’s supporters get their strange ideas, but this is certainly one of them.

    In the meantime, based on my first sentence, Silver made one of the safer bets–much safer than saying Cincy and Oakland will not meet in the 2016 World Series.


  20. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:44 am:

    Trump winning Illinois seems as likely as every TA item being passed without amendment.

    That said, Silver consistently misses on Trump. 20% is still better than the 2% chance he gave Trump of winning the nomination in August, the 5% he gave Trump in September, and the =considerably less than 20%= he gave Trump in November.

    If something strange can happen in this election, it likely will. So, Trump will win New York, California and Illinois while losing every other state lol. And Joe Biden will somehow wind up POTUS. /s


  21. - Illinois Bob - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:46 am:

    It will be interesting to see what his electoral strategy will be. He’s been very efficient in use of his resources thus far.

    He won’t have “coattails” for Congress or Governors in blue states, so he may completely abandon them.

    What’s becoming clear is how many RINOs in congress have more in common with Hillary than any GOP candidates. She’s for sale. They can deal with that.


  22. - jack28 - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:47 am:

    wordslinger, correct. Basically only Ohio and Fla. counted in any recent election.

    What might be telling is whether any Republican state is controlled by actual conservatives, as those are solidly against Orange Face.


  23. - Huh? - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:53 am:

    I can only hope that something so unexpected occurs that we are saved from a Clinton administration.


  24. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:55 am:

    HW was the last GOP presidential candidate to win Illinois in 1988, ending a GOP run in the state that began in 1968: Nixon twice, Ford, Reagan twice, HW.

    After that, Bill Clinton twice, Gore and Kerrey all won Illinois with 54%-55% of the vote. Obama got 62% and 58% in his two runs.


  25. - The Muse - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:09 pm:

    “Trump will play more in mail….”

    You honestly think he’ll even take a stab at winning Illinois??? Via Silver’s article, states like Georgia, Missouri, and even Arizona (see: John McCain’s comments about Pres. Obama a few weeks ago) are “toss-ups.” Trump will likely be focusing on more winnable states.


  26. - Captain Illini - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:09 pm:

    I too agree that Trump will probably not win Illinois, however I don’t agree with Silver’s analysis or point of view…and I agree that it’s way too early to rely upon polls that have not seen or experienced the latest this, that or the other which will influence the electorate nearer the election.


  27. - Keyser Soze - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:15 pm:

    What if the typical voter, who usually shows up at the polls, is so repelled by the likes of Trump and Hillary that he holds his nose and stays home? Meanwhile, what if the typical non-voter, seldom seen at the polls, is so inspired by whatever turns off the others, that he races off to the polls with glee? Isn’t this what got Trump where he is now? This not a normal election cycle.


  28. - Niblets - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:19 pm:

    My hope is that the GOP get what they have earned with Trump and it results in the long term destruction of the party. If by some awful chance Trump were to get elected I think it would result in the destruction of the country.
    Donald Trump carrying the torch of Abraham Lincoln.Doesn’t get much sadder than that.


  29. - Hit or Miss - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:25 pm:

    With Trump at the top of the ticket all other GOP candidates down the ballot, Kirk for example, will find it harder if not impossible to win in Nov.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:32 pm:

    ===What’s becoming clear is how many RINOs in congress have more in common with Hillary than any GOP candidates. She’s for sale. They can deal with that.===

    Trump is not a traditional GOP candidate.

    You could argue being against Trump is as Republican as a Republican can get.


  31. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:33 pm:

    What if the sky was green? Would the grass be blue?

    Stop smoking weed before commenting, please.


  32. - Huh? - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:41 pm:

    “What if the sky was green?”

    I saw a green sky many years ago when I worked as a counselor at a boy scout camp. A tornado struck in the next county over. Since then, I have always taken a green sky as a harbinger of very bad weather.


  33. - jack28 - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:52 pm:

    Hit or Miss: I’m sure that’s why Kirk is already carpetbombing the airwaves with commercials that he called for a vote on Garland and repudiated Trump. Only way he can win is to disassociate himself from this mess.


  34. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:52 pm:

    Silver also predicted that Trump had only a 5% chance of winning the GOP nomination at this point in the primary.

    The chances of Trump carrying Illinois is about as good as Romney’s, McCain’s, or Bush’s were.


  35. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:57 pm:

    Polls showed Brexit having only a 10% chance of winning just Wednesday morning before anyone voted.

    Believe what you want, just watch out for signs that your bias has blinded you.

    After everything I’ve seen this election season, literally nothing will surprise me.


  36. - a drop in - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:59 pm:

    “Trump will play more in mail….”

    I hope he remembers postage to European MPs is higher than the domestic rate.


  37. - Formerly Known as Frenchie M - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 1:02 pm:


    He’s been very efficient in use of his resources thus far.

    Wait — are you talking about Trump? If so — you’re kidding, right?

    Trump “efficient” in his use of resources? LOL. He’s already lagging behind in a historically unwinnable position this late in the game, barely has a presence — much less a “game” — in many swing states, and is — today, at least — wondering out loud why he’s doing so lousy in the polls.

    Yeah, that’s efficiency all right. The only peeps that’ll be at his convention are his kids and Rascal Flatts — and I feel sorry for Rascal Flatts.

    On an unrelated note: Trump U is now accused of plagiarizing materials for its “course” and Trump claimed a $302 home deduction apparently — but it’s a deduction that can only be used for incomes less than $500,000.

    So, I dunno — “efficient” is not the word that comes to mind when Trump and his hairpiece come rolling down the street.


  38. - Anonymous - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 1:05 pm:

    “Silver really went out on a limb with that bold prediction.” It’s all math and probability. Science in other words. No glorification sought by Silver as was with Trump with his self congratulatory prediction of a future terrorist attack. Serious science doesnt work that way. BTW I predict the sun will rise tomorrow Donald.


  39. - TruthLover - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 1:05 pm:

    Trump supporters are so blind. How do you not see the landslide of an election that is about to occur in this state. If anyone on here thinks Trump has a shot in Illinois- you need medication.


  40. - illini97 - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 1:10 pm:

    “Silver also predicted that Trump had only a 5% chance of winning the GOP nomination at this point in the primary.”

    Silver did a pretty deep dive on what went wrong with his predictions on NPR last weekend. In short, he over-prioritized the non-poll data and under-prioritized what the polls were saying.

    He put far too much emphasis on the unfavorables. He stated that the polls weren’t very accurate last election cycle in picking the nominees, but the people with the highest unfavorables were the quickest out of the primary races.

    It’s a stats-driven site with a remarkable track record of accuracy and a constantly revised formula for weighting factors. I’d not completely dismiss any of the predictions coming out of there.


  41. - ihpsdm - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 1:23 pm:

    Trump would need money, a ground game, etc. in order to get some kind of mailing campaign going anywhere. He’s got serious cash flow and staffing issues.


  42. - ihpsdm - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 1:28 pm:

    “It’s a stats-driven site with a remarkable track record of accuracy and a constantly revised formula for weighting factors. I’d not completely dismiss any of the predictions coming out of there.”

    I agree. He relies on statistical data for his predictions. Getting away from that is what caused him to err so badly with the GOP nomination. Trump led from the time he entered straight through the primaries, with a few exceptions in October (Carson).

    Instead he went with some kind of Howard Dean swoon theory that never came to fruition. If he leaves emotion, gut feelings, etc. out of it, you get a lot of quality and useful information out of him/538.


  43. - Demoralized - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 1:53 pm:

    ==The Silent Majority will rise up==

    I wish the silent majority would sit back down if they think Trump is the answer


  44. - Stones - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 1:57 pm:

    It would have been interesting to see Da Coach & Trump together at the convention. Two guys with oddly colored orange faces.


  45. - Fast East St. Louis Eddie - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:19 pm:

    At the federal and statewide level Trump hurts GOP candidates.

    But with a lower turnout then 2012, a roll off vote of 10-15%, tons of split-ticket voters in targets statehouse districts and combined with the fact Republicans will vastly outspend the state house and senate Dems for the first time in a long time it is going to be a blood bath for Dems at the statehouse level.


  46. - jack28 - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:22 pm:

    Stones: But it would affect da Coach’s sales of hearing aids and prostate placebos.


  47. - The_Equalizer - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:24 pm:

    I am genuinely curious to see if there is a Trump effect in Illinois. I would venture to guess that there will be little effect as it will be obscured by the budget and Rauner. Of course, the unpredictability of Trump makes these all guesses..


  48. - Anonymous - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:30 pm:

    Silver also gave Melissa Bean an 87% chance of beating Joe Walsh.


  49. - Chucktownian - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:34 pm:

    Trump will deliver a true veto-proof majority to Madigan. I’m not sure that’s a good thing necessarily but that’s what will happen. Hillary wins by 20 and brings a few of the close races (not many of those) with her.

    By the time of the GOP convention and on through November most Republicans in Illinois will act like Trump doesn’t exist…and for good reason.


  50. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:41 pm:

    HRC may well win the election. But maybe not.

    Certainly Illinois is no longer a swing state and at the Presidential level it is strongly Blue- she will easily carry it.

    California and New York the same. California used to be a swing state and once in awhile New York could go Republican.

    No longer. Immigration, both legal and illegal, from heavily 3rd world impoverished people is the overwhelming reason in all cases that has made the tipping point.

    That is the reality. But the elites from both political parties want more of it, for different reasons, so it will continue. Would not be surprised to see the Republican Party go the way of the Whig Party in another 20 years.


  51. - Illinois Bob - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:41 pm:

    Most of you forget that having a non-competitive race cuts both ways….many Dems, especially minorities, may not vote because they now Hillary will win Illinois, their state rep/senator/congressman isn’t contested and they’re pretty indifferent about Tammy. The threat to the Dems is that where there are contested GA and congressman races minorities, and many union members, won’t show up.


  52. - Rabid - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:50 pm:

    Ditka can’t connect when it’s in the grass bowl (Rauner endorsement 2014)


  53. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 2:53 pm:

    –Most of you forget that having a non-competitive race cuts both ways….many Dems, especially minorities, may not vote because they now Hillary will win Illinois, their state rep/senator/congressman isn’t contested and they’re pretty indifferent about Tammy. The threat to the Dems is that where there are contested GA and congressman races minorities, and many union members, won’t show up–

    You can’t forget something that never was. You’re basing your analysis on…… what?

    Go to the ISBE website, and you’ll see Illinois turnout in presidential years is consistently 20 points higher than non-presidential years.

    And if you can find a political operative, Democratic or Republican, who will tell you that the higher turnout doesn’t skew Democratic, I won’t call you a troll….. for a week.


  54. - Last Bull Moose - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 4:02 pm:

    Hillary is the best reason for me to vote Republican for Senator and Representative. She will need a loyal opposition. (What a quaint phrase. Do we still have that? )

    I have become a man without a party.


  55. - Jeff Trigg - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 4:13 pm:

    If Gary Johnson and Jill Stein both get 5% in Illinois, it could make 2018 a little more interesting.


  56. - ZC - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 4:20 pm:

    What people already said above. The polls fundamentally got Trump right, it’s just that “smart people” (myself included) kept confidently predicting they’d shift.

    Now the polls are hardening that Trump is down and it’s his side’s turn to say, “Oh, they’ll shift.”

    I’d much rather be in Hillary’s position.


  57. - Northsider - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 4:22 pm:

    A “silent majority” for Trump?

    Dem voters ignoring downballot races?

    Johnson and/or stien getting anywhere near, much led at or above 5 percent?

    What ARE some of you smoking today?


  58. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 4:26 pm:

    ==- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 12:57 pm:==

    Polls showed a close vote. The vote was close. Read polls for comprehension.


  59. - Illinois bob - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 4:46 pm:

    @wordslinger

    Read my post, word. I didn’t say this was based on “history”. Obviously voting TENDS to trend higher during presidential years.

    What I’m saying is this is not a “normal” year, as I’m sure you’d agree.

    A POTUS candidate like Hillary not getting a serious challenger certainly is unique in modern history.

    And as far as Trump, well, could we agree that his rise has been unprecedented in modern times?

    There seems to be a unique mindset this time around, and voter motivation certainly isn’t following norms.

    I entirely agree that the overall vote in Illinois will be more Dem than usual. The issue is whether there will be enough pockets of angry Republicans out there to turn the tide in state and congressional races.

    We’ll see.

    BTW, say hello to Billy Goat Gruff under your troll bridge!


  60. - Amalia - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 5:44 pm:

    oh, for the love of goddess, this is a really easy decision. smart, prepared, tough as nails, historic vs. say anything to get what is best for his business and trash all sorts of people. no one is perfect, but one is less imperfect than the other and SHE should get your vote.


  61. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 5:47 pm:

    Trump will do very, very well in the rural, downstate, Republican strongholds.

    He will lose Lake and Will. He might lose DuPage.

    And I suspect that there is a chance - a good chance maybe - that Democrats will ginning up turnout in college towns among higher Ed folks to punish Trump for the sins of Rauner.


  62. - Some Guy - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 6:11 pm:

    “Prediction: Trump will play more in mail than TV where you can specifically target households that may be more receptive to the Trump or anti-Trump message.”

    Trump needs a much better campaign team if he’s going to do that. The latest news is him emailed Members of Parliament, the Icelandic national legislature and a former Canadian prime minister for donations. Yeah, they ain’t that good at the whole targeting thing right now.


  63. - Michael Westen - Thursday, Jun 30, 16 @ 11:10 pm:

    “It’s all math and probability. Science in other words.” Right. And the science has indicated that since 1992 the Democratic candidate for President has won Illinois handily. Again, Silver really went out on a limb with that bold prediction.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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