A new spot that’s hitting TV and radio this week attacks three out of the four gubernatorial primary candidates, sparing only Winnetka venture capitalist Bruce Rauner.
A source with knowledge of the buy said the group — Mid-America Fund — spent roughly $180,000 on broadcast, cable, and radio for this week.
And they kept spending.
One of Mid-America Fund’s 2014 contributors was the Republican Governor’s Association, which claims to have recruited Rauner into the Illinois race.
More pay for them, higher taxes for you. That’s what career politicians do. Career politicians like Bill Brady, Dan Rutherford and Kirk Dillard. Together, they’ve spent over 60 years in Springfield. They voted to increase their own pay and supported millions in pork barrel spending. And to pay for it all, they stuck Illinois families with higher taxes. Call career politicians Brady, Rutherford and Dillard. Tell them we can’t afford high taxes and wasteful spending.
* Well, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has filed a complaint with the IRS about Mid-America Fund and nine other “dark money” groups. From its summary…
[Mid-America Fund] acknowledged on its 2014 tax return that it spent $874,920 on political activity that year. MAF also spent hundreds of thousands of additional dollars on television and radio advertisements attacking three candidates for the Illinois Republican gubernatorial nomination weeks before the primary election. Those ads also were political, but MAF failed to report the spending as political activity. It is not clear exactly how much MAF spent on them, but estimates range from $244,600 to $705,000, which means political expenditures accounted for between 56% and 79% of MAF’s overall spending in 2014. As a result, politics appears to have been MAF’s primary activity. In addition, by failing to report its spending on the Illinois primary election as political activity, it appears MAF and its president, Dexter Vaughn, made false representations to the IRS. […]
It is unclear exactly how much MAF spent on the campaign, but the organization asserted on its tax return that it spent $705,000 for “production and media” to the company that purchased the broadcast television air time for the Illinois ads.
These groups can’t “primarily” be involved in campaign work, so if they spend more than half of their money on politics they can lose their not-for-profit status. Also, allegedly deceiving the IRS is kinda frowned upon. Mid-America Fund was dissolved in 2016, according to CREW.
* If you read the complaint, CREW acknowledges that these ads might be seen as non-political, but dismisses that contention by pointing to an IRS revenue ruling which takes into consideration a number of factors, including whether candidates are identified, whether the message approves or disapproves of the candidate, the proximity to the election, whether it makes reference to voting or an election, whether the issue distinguishes the candidates, whether it’s an ongoing series of communications, etc. It concludes…
(T)he ads were not issue ads, but were intended to effect the election.
Including the Illinois ads push Mid-America Fund’s campaign percentage to at least 56 percent of its 2014 total, up to as much as 79 percent, according to CREW.
* This was an Ohio group, by the way. Another Ohio group, Jobs and Progress Fund, was also hit with a CREW complaint…
JPF first made a name for itself in politics in early 2013 when it ran ads and sent mailers critical of then-Rep. Aaron Schock (R-IL), who was believed to be considering a run for Illinois governor
* I am in dire need of a haircut, kids. Plus, I have to run a couple of errands. I’ll be back this afternoon, hopefully by 1:30, when the governor is scheduled to speak to reporters.
So, instead of a question, let’s make this an Illinois-only open thread. Be respectful of each other. Thanks.
* The biggest potential flaw with Gov. Rauner’s Turnaround Agenda is in this story…
An attempt to support Gov. Bruce Rauner’s turnaround agenda in Kane County failed Tuesday in a vote that ultimately supported Illinois’ prevailing wage law.
Drew Frasz tried to rally fellow board members to reject the annual prevailing wage ordinance the county must pass to comply with state law. Frasz, a nonunion contractor from Elburn, said the prevailing wage only makes government construction projects more expensive for taxpayers. He wants state lawmakers to repeal the prevailing wage and support Rauner. […]
Frasz, who is also vice chairman of the county board, made a similar attempt to reject the prevailing wage law in a board vote about a year ago. Tuesday’s vote received the same total of “no” votes as last year’s attempt. Six of the board’s 14 Republicans voted “no”: Frasz, Maggie Auger, Doug Scheflow, T.R. Smith, Susan Starrett and Barb Wojnicki.
The majority of the board, including all 10 Democrats, voted in favor of the prevailing wage law. As Kane County Democratic Party Chairman Mark Guethle watched from the audience, board member Brian Dahl spoke in support of the prevailing wage as key to keeping people out of poverty and in good-paying jobs.
As we all know, Rauner wants to give local governments the right to opt out of union collective bargaining items and at least part of the prevailing wage.
But he can’t even count on a majority of a GOP-dominated suburban county board to vote for what amounts to a fantasy resolution.
* The only local governments which would conceivably adopt Rauner’s local opt-outs are run by very conservative Republicans. And there aren’t enough of those to make a difference in this state’s $775 billion gross state product. And many of them (particularly in the suburbs) also have enough cash coming in that they probably don’t need the money savings all that much anyway.
Hey, maybe I’m wrong. Maybe other governments would adopt the reforms over time. But from my position, this is just a whole lot of stalemate over what likely wouldn’t amount to much “progress” anyway.
To his credit, Rauner has scaled back his list of reforms to make them more palatable and tried to move forward. He probably has a longer distance to travel, however. Get the nose under the tent first. Change is almost always incremental.
House Republican Organization Releases TV Ad
Network buy targets Reps. John Bradley, Brandon Phelps and Sen. Gary Forby for doing Mike Madigan’s Bidding
“John Bradley, Brandon Phelps and Gary Forby are career politicians that have spent a collective 39 years in Springfield. What they say to voters in Southern Illinois bears no resemblance to their actions in Springfield. Bradley, Phelps and Forby all voted for Mike Madigan’s reckless, $7 billion out-of-balance budget that would require a $1,000 tax hike on Illinois families to balance. That same spending plan also provides a massive bailout to mismanaged Chicago Public Schools. Bradley, Phelps and Forby have done Madigan’s bidding for too long.” – Illinois Republican Party Spokesman Aaron DeGroot
Today the House Republican Organization released a TV ad in Southern Illinois to highlight Reps. John Bradley, Brandon Phelps and Sen. Gary Forby’s history of saying one thing in their district and doing another in Springfield.
* The response from Sen. Durbin is expected, but the news here is that Chris Kennedy met with Durbin about a possible gubernatorial bid. He’s held a lot of similar meetings lately…
Among the Democrats who might be interested are former governor Pat Quinn. He lost all but one of Illinois’ 102 counties to Rauner two years ago, but has lately made a public push to get back into politics.
Another possibility: Christopher Kennedy, son of Bobby Kennedy and former chairman of the University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Kennedy met recently with U.S. Senator Dick Durbin. Durbin says he told Kennedy to “move around the state” to get to know people. But he also says Democrats ought to keep their focus on Illinois’ immediate crisis.
“The only thing I’ve said is all this speculation about who’s going to run for governor in 30 months — for goodness’ sake, cool it. We’ve got a budget crisis that needs to be solved today.”
Durbin himself has been mentioned as a potential challenger to Gov. Rauner. He says he’s got a “great job” representing Illinois in Washington and that his “plans do not include running for any other office.”
Kennedy does need to eventually start moving around the state. Chicagoans tend not to realize just how large Illinois is. Waukegan to Cairo is a more than six-hour drive - and it’s way more than that with traffic. Cairo is actually closer to Jackson, Mississippi than it is to Waukegan - in more ways than one.
A legislative candidate once used a song in his radio ads about how there’s a “whole lot of Illinois below 13,” referring to Route 13, which runs from St. Louis to the Kentucky state line. The first time I ever drove to Anna, I was amazed at how far south it was from Carbondale. And, by the way, Carbondale is actually south of Louisville, Kentucky.
And the state is wide, too. Ever drive from Quincy to Danville? It’s three and a half hours.
So, Kennedy really needs to get out and explore. And that goes for everyone else wanting to run statewide. This is a big, very diverse state. Go experience it.
[Treasurer Michael Frerichs] argued that the budget situation should be resolved before the administration goes back to the bond market, as it plans to do Thursday. The state is seeking to sell $550 million in bonds to fund mass transit, road construction and general construction projects. Frerichs said the state will end up paying “inordinate interest rates.”
Rauner defended the move, saying it’s “the appropriate way” to invest in infrastructure.
Gov. Bruce Rauner says many bond buyers support the pro-business changes he’s pushing and want to invest in Illinois despite its worst-in-the-nation credit rating.
The Republican said Tuesday that taking on more debt is appropriate because the money is for improvements to roads and bridges, not daily operating expenses.
Illinois will go to market Thursday to sell $550 million in bonds.
Rauner says Illinois has strengths including its location and the city of Chicago. Rauner says many bond buyers “have indicated confidence in what we’re trying to do.”
(F)rom a bondholder’s perspective, risk of a payment default appears low, explains Moody’s senior credit officer Ted Hampton.
Despite its fiscal chaos, Illinois still brings in plenty of revenue to cover debt service on bonds. What’s more, state law gives bondholders first crack at those revenues, meaning they’ll likely get paid before any money goes to struggling social services agencies stiffed by the state. “We don’t think the state of Illinois is likely to default on its (bond) debt anytime soon,” Hampton says.
What Hayes’ comments do suggest, however, is that skepticism toward Illinois is growing among bond investors. Ciccarone notes that some have begun to back away from Illinois bonds, relegating the state to a costlier corner of the market. “With conservative investors you’re seeing resistance,” he says. “The investors that are stretching for yield are interested.”
As demand for Illinois paper shrinks, its borrowing costs will rise. How high? Possibly a lot higher, if paralysis endures in Springfield and Illinois’ credit rating keeps falling. Moody’s has a negative outlook on Illinois, a sign that at least one more downgrade may be coming. A drop into junk territory would be extremely expensive—junk-rated Chicago Public Schools bonds carry a rate of 8.5 percent.
A far-fetched scenario, perhaps, but Illinois’ current fiscal predicament seemed unimaginable not so long ago. As Hampton says, “We’re sort of in uncharted territory here with Illinois.”
Illinois has never missed a bond payment, but the state for the first time is addressing that doomsday scenario in a document filed ahead of a scheduled $550 million bond sale this week.
In the prospectus for its June 16 sale of $550 million of bonds, dated June 6, Illinois warned that if it were to miss a payment, bondholders’ ability to collect their money could be delayed by court proceedings or other actions out of the state’s control. This is the first time the state has highlighted such a warning, though its lawyers have given similar notice in opinions appended to prior offering documents.
“It’s a pretty cautious, if alarming, statement,” said Richard Ciccarone, who heads Merritt Research Services, which analyzes municipal bond issuer data. The warning should increase investor anxiety over buying the bonds, he added.
Standard & Poor’s last week also questioned whether the state could “maintain adequate debt-paying capacity” because of deteriorating finances and political gridlock.
Highly unusual for sure, but probably not without cause in the wake of Puerto Rico’s troubles, etc.
* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s radio network…
A $700 million bipartisan stopgap measure that would fund a variety of human services has been on the governor’s desk for nearly a month now.
While the state finishes the current fiscal year without a full budget, Senate Bill 2038 would spend nearly $700 million from special funds for various human services that have gone all year without funding.
State Sen. Kyle McCarter, R-Lebanon, said SB 2038 is an imperfect bill that highlights the state’s broken financial situation. “We haven’t budgeted as a whole. We’ve budgeted by emergency. We’ve budgeted because of court orders and consent decrees. This whole process is dysfunctional.”
McCarter said Gov. Bruce Rauner should sign the measure or at least line-item veto what the governor thinks isn’t a priority.
Rauner criticized the measure for not funding executive agency operations but stopped short of saying he’d veto the bill.
When you’ve lost Kyle McCarter on a stopgap spending fight, you’ve lost the fight.
A [UIUC] campus resolution urging state lawmakers to settle a year-long budget impasse prompted a two-page response from House Speaker Michael Madigan but it was mostly political finger-pointing, exasperated University of Illinois faculty say.
Given the lack of budget progress, leaders of the Academic Senate now plan to forward the resolution to the entire General Assembly to “stand on principle and ask for what is right,” said Professor Gay Miller, chair of the Senate Executive Committee. […]
Miller said she was disappointed in the letter.
“In my way of thinking, there’s too much politics wrapped up in the response, and too much finger-pointing,” she said at this week’s Senate Executive Committee meeting.
“It’s pretty much a rehash of what’s been said,” agreed entomology Professor Bettina Francis.
Gov. Bruce Rauner said he won’t be calling the General Assembly back to Springfield this week for a special session, saying it would be a “waste of time” so long as the Democrats in the Legislature are not ready to vote on a GOP-backed proposal for an emergency budget.
“Calling special sessions has happened in the past, and it has a tendency to alienate people, make them frustrated and angry, and has not had success when it’s been done in the past,” Rauner said Tuesday, after Democratic Speaker Michael Madigan canceled a planned Wednesday session in the House.
“To have them come when they’re not ready to vote is a waste,” Rauner told reporters after addressing the annual meeting of the Illinois Chamber of Commerce at the Palmer House Hilton. “It’s a waste of time, and it just gets everybody’s emotions ragged. We don’t need that. Emotions are already running a little bit too high.”
The tone was a mild departure from Rauner’s combative statements as he’s toured the state in recent weeks, which have done little to ratchet down emotions among Democratic lawmakers he has blamed for the state’s year-long budget impasse.
I agree on all points. Special sessions are a waste of time if nobody wants to do anything. Plus, the governor gets the stage all to himself when the GA isn’t in session. He has to share that stage, however, when legislators are all together and have easy access to reporters.
Also, it’s good that he finally realized that emotions were running too high around here. And subscribers know more about the new mood. We’ll see if it lasts when he speaks to reporters again at 1:30 this afternoon. You can watch or listen to that event by clicking here.
Attached you will find a summary report of all our polls over the past 9 years. “The Climate of Opinion in Illinois 2008-2016: Roots of Gridlock” charts the ebb and flow of opinion on a variety of issues.
As the state budget stalemate continues, the report and the graphics may prove to be a useful resource in your coverage of budget and other issues facing the state.
In the narrative and conclusion, the authors of the report say voters themselves “bear significant responsibility” for some of the stalemate. Many voters do that by supporting spending programs and opposing cuts to programs while opposing revenue increases.
Some of the political scientists at the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute have a theory about the roots of the current gridlock in Illinois government. […]
“Our data support the argument that the voters themselves bear significant responsibility for the current debt crisis and gridlocked government,” states the report authored by John Jackson, Charles Leonard and Shiloh Deitz.
“Not only did they elect the leaders responsible for this state of affairs, but their steadfast insistence on the untenable high-service/low-tax status quo gave the politicians permission to drive the vehicle of state to the edge of the cliff, where it teeters today on the brink.” […]
Jackson agreed with my own thesis to explain why voters don’t see a disconnect between their opposition to cutting services at the same time they’re opposed to raising taxes.
It’s because they also believe government is so corrupt that we wouldn’t need to pay more in taxes if we just had proper management that weeds out the waste and fraud.
Our leadership defects and deficits are matched by—and in fact enabled by—a “followership deficit” as well. We the people must have the good sense to govern ourselves if mass democracy is going to work. If we do not live in a fact-based world—in which the voters take an interest in government and acquire basic knowledge about the issues and the candidates—then only emotion, fear, and prejudice will prevail in our elections. There is ample evidence of such motivations dominating the voting of many millions of Americans in the current election cycle.
Our data support the argument that the voters themselves bear significant responsibility for the current debt crisis and gridlocked government. Not only did they elect the leaders responsible for this state of affairs, but their steadfast insistence on the untenable high-service/low-tax status quo gave the politicians permission to drive the vehicle of state to the edge of the cliff, where it teeters today on the brink.
