House Republican Organization Releases TV Ad
Network buy targets Reps. John Bradley, Brandon Phelps and Sen. Gary Forby for doing Mike Madigan’s Bidding
“John Bradley, Brandon Phelps and Gary Forby are career politicians that have spent a collective 39 years in Springfield. What they say to voters in Southern Illinois bears no resemblance to their actions in Springfield. Bradley, Phelps and Forby all voted for Mike Madigan’s reckless, $7 billion out-of-balance budget that would require a $1,000 tax hike on Illinois families to balance. That same spending plan also provides a massive bailout to mismanaged Chicago Public Schools. Bradley, Phelps and Forby have done Madigan’s bidding for too long.” – Illinois Republican Party Spokesman Aaron DeGroot
Today the House Republican Organization released a TV ad in Southern Illinois to highlight Reps. John Bradley, Brandon Phelps and Sen. Gary Forby’s history of saying one thing in their district and doing another in Springfield.
So I guess we know which candidates are going to be targeted for the relentless attacks on their character/lives. Millions will be spent to demonize these individuals just as it was done to Rep McCann.
I am from southern Illinois and live just north of these districts. I do not see how this ad does anything to “move the needle”. Madigan is not liked at all in this area, and I presume the rest of Illinois as well. However, just trying to attach someone to Madigan as a puppet will not work. The same branding could have been used against Rep. Costello, but the R’s couldn’t even find anyone to run, despite Rauner’s millions in tow. This cycle will be just like any another, vote all the bums out, but not our bum. Not an impressive ad at all. At least for me.
It’s an effective “pass”. It’s pointed, it’s concise and it targets a cohesive region. Not sure how many soft spots there are in this district, but whatever exist, this will hit them.
Repeated use of this, although it is somewhat weak, will leave a mark over time. Madigan is disliked intensely in this area and this will be effective. Expect more and even harsher dialogue as the summer and fall wear on.
I don’t watch much tv, but living in this area, I have seen the ad so many times it is quite annoying. Of course, I am not naturally sympathetic to this viewpoint, but I have to think they are over playing it. I have gotten a robocall from Phelps stressing his independence from Madigan. He talks about the ad in the robocall.
The ad is shlock, but it’s exactly the type of thing that elected the first Republican legislature since Reconstruction in North Carolina. This story is several years old, but I doubt the playbook has changed.
- Chucktownian - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:43 am:
The GOP is going to spend millions on ads and still lose big. If it hasn’t worked so far, it certainly isn’t going to in a year in which a Democrat wins the presidential race in the state by 20 points.
My prediction - all three will survive the Rauner Millions that will be spent this election cycle.
I do live in Southern Illinois but none represent me. Yet I know that they have a better handle on their constituency than the PR gurus who have the same simplistic message used to demonize any opponents.
And I agree, this works both ways.
This may be an election that confirms the findings of the Simon Institute study referenced today.
Grade F. The message is what they say is not what they do. OK. The ad does not have a single example of what they actually said not matching what they did. A generic ad that takes no effort to put out and could be used for anyone.
I suppose the ad will help get out the base. When ever I hear “career politician” used as a pejorative, I wonder why anyone would want a “clueless beginner” to represent them instead? What’s the difference between a “career politician” and a “statesman”? Seems like it’s if they are on your side or not. But I guess some respond to this or they wouldn’t use that line of attack.
I live in a district represented by two of these of men. These tactics aren’t going to work on these individuals who have all held their seats for 12+ years and have proven themselves loyal to Southern Illinois. I don’t know what their favorability ratings are, but I’d imagine they are higher than the average.
If the GOP really wanted to compete, they would have put up some good opponents.
Jason Kasier is running against Brandon Phelps. He has five total donors with $6,000 in the bank. He’s raised about $17,000 with one donation being from Richard Uihlein for $5,400 and another $10,000 from two relatives. Phelps has $600k plus on hand.
Dave Severin is running against John Bradley and had $82 Cash on Hand after raising $100 during the primaries. Bradley has $600k plus on hand.
Money isn’t everything but if shows any signs that a candidate is serious, we know that their opponents aren’t.
@ Southern Illinoisan, you make the best points. If these are serious candidates, then they need to have their own money and not depend on independent expenditure groups. To several of the other commenters (and Rich), lately there has been more and more shall we say “targeted” comments, but not especially insightful or informational comments. If all y’all want to do is blow your R or D horn, at least bring an interesting angle to the discussion, please?
@ Southern Illinoisan ( and I am assuming that you are not from the newspaper - or maybe you are ) - great points.
Kasier and Severin are bought and paid for with the assurances of the BVR Millions that will be used to get them elected.
These members of the GA know their constituency and they will not be intimidated by these generic attack ads. And I will suggest that most of the voters will not be swayed either.
- Gooner - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:36 am:
I give it a D.
It is just the same tired lines.
Rauner has been repeating similar allegations for going on three years now, including during the campaign.
We are well past the point where people stopped listening.
- Radar - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:37 am:
So I guess we know which candidates are going to be targeted for the relentless attacks on their character/lives. Millions will be spent to demonize these individuals just as it was done to Rep McCann.
- lawdawg - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:42 am:
I am from southern Illinois and live just north of these districts. I do not see how this ad does anything to “move the needle”. Madigan is not liked at all in this area, and I presume the rest of Illinois as well. However, just trying to attach someone to Madigan as a puppet will not work. The same branding could have been used against Rep. Costello, but the R’s couldn’t even find anyone to run, despite Rauner’s millions in tow. This cycle will be just like any another, vote all the bums out, but not our bum. Not an impressive ad at all. At least for me.
- illini97 - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:43 am:
It’s a D for me. “Fire Madigan X.0″ hasn’t worked and it’s going to bite back when House R’s go green on a “tax hike” and “CPS bailout”
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:45 am:
It’s an effective “pass”. It’s pointed, it’s concise and it targets a cohesive region. Not sure how many soft spots there are in this district, but whatever exist, this will hit them.
- Elliott Ness - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:48 am:
Repeated use of this, although it is somewhat weak, will leave a mark over time. Madigan is disliked intensely in this area and this will be effective. Expect more and even harsher dialogue as the summer and fall wear on.
- Red eft - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:49 am:
I don’t watch much tv, but living in this area, I have seen the ad so many times it is quite annoying. Of course, I am not naturally sympathetic to this viewpoint, but I have to think they are over playing it. I have gotten a robocall from Phelps stressing his independence from Madigan. He talks about the ad in the robocall.
- Red eft - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:50 am:
Actually, I guess it was an earlier ad linking them to Madigan that I saw too many times. They are saturating the air waves.
- Georg Sande - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:18 am:
Good stuff!
- olddog - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:21 am:
The ad is shlock, but it’s exactly the type of thing that elected the first Republican legislature since Reconstruction in North Carolina. This story is several years old, but I doubt the playbook has changed.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/10/10/state-for-sale
- Chucktownian - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:43 am:
The GOP is going to spend millions on ads and still lose big. If it hasn’t worked so far, it certainly isn’t going to in a year in which a Democrat wins the presidential race in the state by 20 points.
- illini - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:52 am:
My prediction - all three will survive the Rauner Millions that will be spent this election cycle.
I do live in Southern Illinois but none represent me. Yet I know that they have a better handle on their constituency than the PR gurus who have the same simplistic message used to demonize any opponents.
And I agree, this works both ways.
This may be an election that confirms the findings of the Simon Institute study referenced today.
- zatoichi - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:02 pm:
Grade F. The message is what they say is not what they do. OK. The ad does not have a single example of what they actually said not matching what they did. A generic ad that takes no effort to put out and could be used for anyone.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:05 pm:
I’d give it a C–for compromise.
- James Knell - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:08 pm:
I suppose the ad will help get out the base. When ever I hear “career politician” used as a pejorative, I wonder why anyone would want a “clueless beginner” to represent them instead? What’s the difference between a “career politician” and a “statesman”? Seems like it’s if they are on your side or not. But I guess some respond to this or they wouldn’t use that line of attack.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:09 pm:
easy to rebut, just pint out the Govs proposed budget has a 6 Billion deficit, and it was not created by the Dems or Madigan.
- James Knell - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:12 pm:
It would be really funny if they made a positive spot together. Like the “three amigos” or something like that.
- Anon - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:12 pm:
Can’t wait to see Forby doing the McCarter “Chicago-my kind of town” dance skit!
- IllinoisBoi - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:14 pm:
These kind of tactics worked SO well against McCann.
- Way South of I-80 - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:23 pm:
I would also give it a “D” - already tuning it out. Didn’t think I was going to have to go to Netflix exclusively so early in the year.
- Signal and Noise - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:32 pm:
Noun, verb and Mike Madigan.
Guess we’ll see once and for all if Mire Fadigan ever wins an actual seat.
- Nieva - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:36 pm:
Hope they all get together and do a rebuttal with Forby as the spokesman…
- Ottawa Phil - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:47 pm:
Very effective piece. Hope there’s lots more to come!
- Southern Illinoisan - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 2:19 pm:
I live in a district represented by two of these of men. These tactics aren’t going to work on these individuals who have all held their seats for 12+ years and have proven themselves loyal to Southern Illinois. I don’t know what their favorability ratings are, but I’d imagine they are higher than the average.
If the GOP really wanted to compete, they would have put up some good opponents.
Jason Kasier is running against Brandon Phelps. He has five total donors with $6,000 in the bank. He’s raised about $17,000 with one donation being from Richard Uihlein for $5,400 and another $10,000 from two relatives. Phelps has $600k plus on hand.
Dave Severin is running against John Bradley and had $82 Cash on Hand after raising $100 during the primaries. Bradley has $600k plus on hand.
Money isn’t everything but if shows any signs that a candidate is serious, we know that their opponents aren’t.
- NoNews - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 3:16 pm:
@ Southern Illinoisan, you make the best points. If these are serious candidates, then they need to have their own money and not depend on independent expenditure groups. To several of the other commenters (and Rich), lately there has been more and more shall we say “targeted” comments, but not especially insightful or informational comments. If all y’all want to do is blow your R or D horn, at least bring an interesting angle to the discussion, please?
- NoNews - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 3:17 pm:
Edit: I wasn’t implying Rich does that, just bringing to his attention.
- illini - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 4:45 pm:
@ Southern Illinoisan ( and I am assuming that you are not from the newspaper - or maybe you are ) - great points.
Kasier and Severin are bought and paid for with the assurances of the BVR Millions that will be used to get them elected.
These members of the GA know their constituency and they will not be intimidated by these generic attack ads. And I will suggest that most of the voters will not be swayed either.