* Press release…
Yesterday, on July 26, 2016, We Ask America Polls™ conducted a statewide hybrid poll (part automated/part live interview) measuring Democratic voters’ views on which potential candidates for Illinois governor would most likely receive their vote. The respondents were asked one primary question plus a short series of demographic-related questions. The primary question was this:
“There are a number of Democratic candidates rumored to be interested in running for Illinois governor in two years. We’d like to know which—if any—of the following possible candidates you would most likely vote for if they do run for Illinois governor. “
Crosstabs are here.
I’m told that Lisa Madigan wasn’t included because she said a couple years back she wouldn’t run for governor unless her father stepped aside as House Speaker.
…Adding… More from the pollster…
1. As expected, those with the best name recognition stood out, with a U.S. Senator dwarfing the field: Sen. Dick Durbin scored nearly 50 percent–significant especially with at least one other recent statewide office holder on the list.
2. Former Illinois Governor Pat Quinn’s numbers paled compared to Durbin, and were within the margin of error of the generic “someone else” option: Quinn certainly enjoyed the benefit of better name recognition than most of the others, but simply couldn’t muster enough support to climb into a double-digit range of results. His extremely weak numbers downstate (5.29%) kept him below that threshold.
3. Should Durbin decide against a run for governor, the field must be considered wide open. Former Gov. Quinn’s numbers cannot be considered a deterrent to any potential candidate. Congresswoman Cheri Bustos (IL-17) is a close family friend of Sen. Durbin’s and won a hotly contested race against Republican incumbent Bobby Schilling four years ago. Congresswoman Robin Kelly (IL-2) is a former state representative who also served as chief of staff for the State Treasurer. Chris Kennedy is a business executive who was the former Chair of the University of Illinois Board…as well as the Illinois anchor for the Kennedy clan; State Senator Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) filled Barack Obama’s state senate seat when Obama left the Statehouse for the U.S. Senate and has been an active leader in Springfield; and State Senator Heather Steans (D-Chicago) is a Princeton and Harvard-educated reformer who has championed a number of causes including nursing home and environmental reforms.
Notes & Comments
A poll this early in the process cannot be viewed as a predictor of any kind for the fall of 2018. While the list of candidates mentioned in this poll was merited by direct mention of possible candidacy in published reports, some will not run and others not listed undoubtedly will test the waters. Some candidates that many feel may possibly run were left off if they had expressed a strong enough denial. For example, Attorney General Lisa Madigan has repeatedly stated that she will not run as long as her father remains Speaker of the Illinois House–and was therefore not offered as an option.
Note that a short job related description was read about each potential candidate during the polling process. For example: “Congresswoman Cheri Bustos” - “State Senator Kwame Raoul.”
We Ask America Polls paid for this poll and was not asked to conduct it by any candidate, individual or political committee. The poll was purposely conducted during the Democratic National Convention in an effort to discuss the issue with Illinois Democrats during a time where they may be paying more attention to political issues.
This poll was conducted July 26, 2016 using both automated (recorded) and live operator-initiated calls. In all, 1,128 registered voters completed all questions on the poll. About 30% (338) of the responses came from cell phones. The voters dialed were randomly selected from a proprietary registered-voter database to assure the greatest chance of providing an accurate cross-section of opinion from the statewide sample. Weighting formulas were applied to correct any over- and under-sampling. Each respondent was asked to verify that he/she was a Democrat who planned to vote in the next Democratic Primary Election.
Our sampling methodology ensures that We Ask America poll results are “projectable,” meaning that if every resident in a given geography were dialed, the results would not differ from the reported poll results by more than the stated margin of error at a 95% confidence level (the industry standard), if the same survey was repeated. For this case, results with a margin of error of ±3.0 % at the 95% confidence level means that if the same survey were conducted 100 times, 95 times out of 100 the results would not vary in either direction by more than 3.0% in either direction.
Emphasis added for obvious reasons.