Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Poll: Durbin leads Democratic field by huge margin
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Durbin leads Democratic field by huge margin

Wednesday, Jul 27, 2016

* Press release…

Yesterday, on July 26, 2016, We Ask America Polls™ conducted a statewide hybrid poll (part automated/part live interview) measuring Democratic voters’ views on which potential candidates for Illinois governor would most likely receive their vote. The respondents were asked one primary question plus a short series of demographic-related questions. The primary question was this:

“There are a number of Democratic candidates rumored to be interested in running for Illinois governor in two years. We’d like to know which—if any—of the following possible candidates you would most likely vote for if they do run for Illinois governor. “

    Cheri Bustos………4.88%
    Dick Durbin……….48.87%
    Robin Kelly………..3.63%
    Chris Kennedy……4.50%
    Pat Quinn…………..9.91%
    Kwame Raoul……..1.46%
    Heather Steans……0.63%
    Someone else…….7.21%
    Undecided…………18.90%

Crosstabs are here.

I’m told that Lisa Madigan wasn’t included because she said a couple years back she wouldn’t run for governor unless her father stepped aside as House Speaker.

…Adding… More from the pollster…

Findings

    1. As expected, those with the best name recognition stood out, with a U.S. Senator dwarfing the field: Sen. Dick Durbin scored nearly 50 percent–significant especially with at least one other recent statewide office holder on the list.

    2. Former Illinois Governor Pat Quinn’s numbers paled compared to Durbin, and were within the margin of error of the generic “someone else” option: Quinn certainly enjoyed the benefit of better name recognition than most of the others, but simply couldn’t muster enough support to climb into a double-digit range of results. His extremely weak numbers downstate (5.29%) kept him below that threshold.

    3. Should Durbin decide against a run for governor, the field must be considered wide open. Former Gov. Quinn’s numbers cannot be considered a deterrent to any potential candidate. Congresswoman Cheri Bustos (IL-17) is a close family friend of Sen. Durbin’s and won a hotly contested race against Republican incumbent Bobby Schilling four years ago. Congresswoman Robin Kelly (IL-2) is a former state representative who also served as chief of staff for the State Treasurer. Chris Kennedy is a business executive who was the former Chair of the University of Illinois Board…as well as the Illinois anchor for the Kennedy clan; State Senator Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) filled Barack Obama’s state senate seat when Obama left the Statehouse for the U.S. Senate and has been an active leader in Springfield; and State Senator Heather Steans (D-Chicago) is a Princeton and Harvard-educated reformer who has championed a number of causes including nursing home and environmental reforms.

Notes & Comments

A poll this early in the process cannot be viewed as a predictor of any kind for the fall of 2018. While the list of candidates mentioned in this poll was merited by direct mention of possible candidacy in published reports, some will not run and others not listed undoubtedly will test the waters. Some candidates that many feel may possibly run were left off if they had expressed a strong enough denial. For example, Attorney General Lisa Madigan has repeatedly stated that she will not run as long as her father remains Speaker of the Illinois House–and was therefore not offered as an option.

Note that a short job related description was read about each potential candidate during the polling process. For example: “Congresswoman Cheri Bustos” - “State Senator Kwame Raoul.”

We Ask America Polls paid for this poll and was not asked to conduct it by any candidate, individual or political committee. The poll was purposely conducted during the Democratic National Convention in an effort to discuss the issue with Illinois Democrats during a time where they may be paying more attention to political issues.

Methodology

This poll was conducted July 26, 2016 using both automated (recorded) and live operator-initiated calls. In all, 1,128 registered voters completed all questions on the poll. About 30% (338) of the responses came from cell phones. The voters dialed were randomly selected from a proprietary registered-voter database to assure the greatest chance of providing an accurate cross-section of opinion from the statewide sample. Weighting formulas were applied to correct any over- and under-sampling. Each respondent was asked to verify that he/she was a Democrat who planned to vote in the next Democratic Primary Election.

Our sampling methodology ensures that We Ask America poll results are “projectable,” meaning that if every resident in a given geography were dialed, the results would not differ from the reported poll results by more than the stated margin of error at a 95% confidence level (the industry standard), if the same survey was repeated. For this case, results with a margin of error of ±3.0 % at the 95% confidence level means that if the same survey were conducted 100 times, 95 times out of 100 the results would not vary in either direction by more than 3.0% in either direction.

Emphasis added for obvious reasons.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

32 Comments
  1. - Conn Smythe - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 10:57 am:

    How did they not include Lisa Madigan?


  2. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 10:58 am:

    How is Lisa Madigan not listed?


  3. - Downstate GOP Faithless - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 10:58 am:

    Someone tell me, at this stage, why the question does not include the AG? I am really just wondering.


  4. - Meida Critic - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:00 am:

    I don’t suppose it’s possible to get past the 2016 election before talking serious about the 2018 election, is it?


  5. - Cubs in '16 - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:00 am:

    Albeit a distant second, Pat Quinn? Really??


  6. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:00 am:

    Que sorpresa! The best known candidate without fatal unfavorable numbers would win in a walk!


  7. - Jolly1 - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:02 am:

    READ the whole story people..
    . I’m told that Lisa Madigan wasn’t included because she said a couple years back she wouldn’t run for governor unless her father stepped aside as House Speaker.


  8. - Formerly Known as Frenchie M - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:04 am:

    Problem with Durbin is that someone will invariably remind him that if loses an election to Rauner — of all people — that that loss — to Rauner — will be his legacy.

    This, despite all the good work he’s done in Washington. The race will be so polarizing — and nasty — that it will define Durbin’s legacy — one way or the other.


  9. - A guy - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:06 am:

    “someone else” sure is over performing. lol. Name recognition is everything here. I don’t think there’s any surprise. Had Lisa been included, I would guess she would be a few points either side of Durbin. Probably a point or two up because of her name rec in Chicago.


  10. - NIU Grad - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:11 am:

    I’m still not sold on his strength…he’s popular, but I’m not sure if most voters actually know much about him. Even against weak candidates, his victory margin has been shrinking more and more. I don’t know how solid that popularity will remain once his positions and vote record, coupled with the ‘Washington insider’ label, are put in the spotlight.


  11. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:14 am:

    – Albeit a distant second, Pat Quinn? Really?? –

    Only other person listed with true statewide name recognition.


  12. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:18 am:

    Durbin is by far the most qualified to run. The biggest factor in my opinion is it makes the Rauner teams work that much harder. He will not be able to use his Chicago v. Downstate pandering because Durbin and his team know everything about different regions of the state and he has a house in Springfield.

    Rauner likes to go downstate to bash Chicago, term limits, but has no accomplishments to run on. Durbin can go downstate knowing exactly what this area needs and also talk about what he has done at the federal level for that area. Example: Quad Cities, keeping Rock Island Arsenal open and funds for a new I-74 bridge.

    Rauner won’t have anything accomplished in four years. That’s his biggest problem. Four steps backwards and one stop forward.


  13. - A guy - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:19 am:

    Would be interesting to see this same poll with Lisa running, predicated on the Speaker retiring. Bet that would be pretty clear.


  14. - Shake - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:20 am:

    Durbin vs Rauner. Durbin In A Landslide, Easy…


  15. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:23 am:

    === Easy===

    Is that you, Kirk Dillard? Or maybe it’s you, Pat Quinn?


  16. - Cubs in '16 - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:25 am:

    - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:14 am:

    – Albeit a distant second, Pat Quinn? Really?? –

    Only other person listed with true statewide name recognition.

    Exactly! lol


  17. - A guy - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:25 am:

    Or is it you Dick Durbin?


  18. - illini - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:27 am:

    Guessing there are no Democrats who have roots south of Chicago and the collar counties, other than Sen Durbin, who could be added to this mix of candidates!

    Other than Durbin and Quinn, I’m fairly certain that most of these names would not be recognized by 95% of Downstate Democrats, or those who are typically inclined to vote Democrat.


  19. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:28 am:

    could have just had a poll of “Which of the following names have you heard before?”


  20. - LessAnon? - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:28 am:

    Can’t imagine Durbin would want to take this on. He has things too good right now, and he’d be giving that up to get pounded for over a year by an opposing campaign with an endless supply of resources. Back to reality, without Durbin or Lisa running, it’s pretty slim pickin’s


  21. - Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:31 am:

    Let’s see what happens this November. And then see what the FY17 budget is.

    Without lots more revenue, there will be a collapse of services. Who will be left standing?


  22. - Illinois Bob - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:32 am:

    What can they offer Durbin to make this worth his while? I wouldn’t wish that job on anybody given the toxic culture in Springfield. Ya gotta be thinking some “goody” worth seven figures for him personally, and substantially more than he could cash in for as a retired Senator.

    There really is no better political gig than Senator. With 100 members there’s far more influence to peddle for your vote than in the House, and three’s no less accountable gig than being a Senator.

    He also can stay there as long as he wants.

    I just can’t see what’s in it for him.


  23. - just maybe - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:34 am:

    Cong. Cheri Bustos has family and roots in southern Illinois and a strong connection to SIUC.


  24. - Downstate - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:37 am:

    Tom Dart, who’s very popular in Cook County, has been making the rounds downstate and has lots of friends in every region of the state. Would be interesting to see where he would land in this poll.


  25. - Chicago J - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 11:44 am:

    Kwame Raoul went way down in my estimation, when he participated in the “criss cross” tactic to defeat legislative redistricting reform.


  26. - MOON - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 12:33 pm:

    Durbin does not have the stomach to take on Rauner and his deep pockets.


  27. - *...* - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 1:28 pm:

    Hm, would’ve liked to see Tom Dart’s name in the polling…not sure why they didn’t include it seeing as it has been thrown around and included in another poll a couple months back.


  28. - Virtually Illiterate Collectivist - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 2:31 pm:

    Can’t read too much into this, but the one legit take away is bad news for Quinn. Durbin and him are the only candidates with universal name recognition among Dem voters and Durbin is out-polling him 5 to 1.


  29. - atsuishin - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 5:06 pm:

    quinn cant even make double digits :(


  30. - Former State Employee - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 5:53 pm:

    I don’t like Bruce Rauner, and I understand how bad his numbers are but anyone on this list except Dick Durbin will get crushed. Especially Cherie Bustos. Also Kwame, whose primary claim to fame is his connection to the President. And I hate my statement, but the party better get their act together if they want to beat him and they aren’t going to do it with someone who can’t pull their weight.


  31. - G'Kar - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 8:26 pm:

    “We Ask America Polls paid for this poll and was not asked to conduct it by any candidate, individual or political committee.”

    I know this is late, and perhaps a naive question but why would WAA do this for free?


  32. - Jimmy - Wednesday, Jul 27, 16 @ 9:49 pm:

    The poll was purposely conducted during the Democratic National Convention in an effort to discuss the issue with Illinois Democrats during a time where they may be paying more attention to political issues.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Madigan calls for LIG investigation
* Death penalty hearing roundup
* Female lawmakers want immediate LIG investigation of Cassidy allegations
* Biss' former running mate Litesa Wallace endorses Pritzker
* Pat Brady vs. Dan Proft: Let's get ready to rumble!
* We interrupt today's craziness for an important announcement
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner campaign responds *** Pritzker wants immediate independent investigation following Cassidy allegations
* More on Pritzker's "Blue Wave" program
* *** UPDATED x1 - Cassidy responds *** Madigan denies Cassidy allegations
* Midwest Members Credit Union Donates to Tri-City Baseball/Softball League for 3rd Year in a Row
* Support a free and open internet – Support House Bill 4819!
* Is Sheriff Dart's office really this clueless?
* WIU looking at drastic enrollment declines as deficit spending increases
* Election Day Registration lawsuit finally dismissed
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner campaign slams Pritzker *** ILGOP lambastes Madigan over Cassidy allegations
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Rauner should support bipartisan bill to reduce.....
* A narrow win for bondholders still sets an omin.....
* Biss' former running mate Litesa Wallace endors.....
* Pat Brady vs. Dan Proft: Let's get ready to rum.....
* Pat Brady vs. Dan Proft: Let's get ready to rum.....
* School-Based Mental Health Centers Play Vital R.....
* Watch live: Two GOP heavyweights battle over fu.....
* Madigan denies retaliating against Democratic l.....
* Madigan denies retaliating against Democratic l.....
* More on Pritzker's “Blue Wave” program..


* Woman accuses R. Kelly of sexual battery, giving her herpes
* Group plans LGBTQ pride festival in southern Illinois
* Union vote set for some South Carolina Boeing workers
* US Marshal in Chicago steps down halfway through term
* Chicago will add extra police officers over holiday weekend
* 3 found dead in suburban Chicago home; autopsies planned
* Coast Guard: Don't keep details about boat trips a secret
* Mike Ditka to speak at benefit for shuttered Indiana college
* Baboon escapes crate at Texas airport; officers corner him
* Gary airport completes project that closed main runway

* Democratic lawmaker says she quit side job because she felt pressure from Madigan allies
* Rauner administration cited for hiring mismanagement
* Democrats offer harsh assessment of Rauner's death penalty proposal
* Rauners move back into Governor's Mansion
* Pritzker giving, raising funds for 'blue wave'
* Rauners move back into Illinois Governor's Mansion
* Illinois GOP chairman re-elected; Republicans display unity
* GoFundMe makes saving Lincoln artifacts modern, accessible
* Gov. Rauner ally Ken Dunkin given $70K Chicago post
* Madigan wants information on governor's Legionnaires' fix

* First Midwest closing 19 branches, cutting 100-plus jobs
* AbbVie to donate $100 million to help storm-ravaged Puerto Rico
* As families struggle to get behavioral health coverage, enforcement of parity laws lags
* Emanuel moves to build support for Obama Center
* GE's $11 billion rail deal


* NFL unanimously approves David Tepper’s $2.2B purchase of Panthers
* Zoning Committee approves Obama Presidential Center
* Bulls big man Lauri Markkanen is named NBA All-Rookie First Team by voters
* Rauner should support bipartisan bill to reduce gun violence
* Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen named to All-Rookie first team
* Man exposed himself to woman in Portage Park: police
* Bucks guard plans to sue Milwaukee police who tased him in January arrest
* CTA to rehab 2 Blue Line stops; 3 others — but no fare hikes — also on track
* Watch live: Two GOP heavyweights battle over future of party in Illinois
* Israel has every right to protect its citizens against an invasion by hostile masses


* Lauri Markkanen earns All-Rookie first-team honors
* Ian Happ and Jason Heyward sit vs. Indians starter Trevor Bauer
* Mueller investigating flows of money to Israeli social media company
* Emails reveal secret lobbying effort to alter U.S. policy in Middle East
* After R. Kelly is a no-show in court — and his attorneys quit — Chicago judge tosses lawsuit
* Milwaukee police to release video of arrest of Bucks guard Sterling Brown
* D203 spokeswoman, Safety Town commissioner loses battle with cancer
* Hammond man charged with Sauk Village murder
* Madigan denies retaliating against Democratic lawmaker who spoke out about his handling of sexual harassment claims
* Just Opened: Diversey Wine selling wines 'made by a real human'


» Study: 2013 Chicago School Closings Failed To Help Students
» Illinois Lawmakers Hear Arguments On Rauner's Death Penalty Plan
» May 21, 2018 - Full Show
» The Musical ‘Assassins’; Dr. Eli Finkel On Good Relationships; ‘The Brain Scoop’
» Downtown Expedition Helps Teens Make Chicago Their Own
» Mansion Move-In: Rauner Returns to Redeveloped Governor's Home
» Mansion Move-In: Rauner Returns to Renovated Governor's Home
» Illinois Lawmakers Weigh Compromise On Guns, Death Penalty
» Outside Chicago Most Illinois Gun Deaths Are Suicides
» Sports Betting Negotiations Jump-Started In Illinois


* Democratic lawmaker says she quit side job because she felt pressure from Madigan allies
* Rauner administration cited for hiring mismanagement
* Democrats offer harsh assessment of Rauner's death penalty proposal
* Their View: As possible impeachment looms, Greitens keeps digging his own grave
* EJ Dionne: Trump's dehumanization project
* Guest View: Illinois needs to keep Abraham Lincoln's legacy from being auctioned
* Rauners move back into Governor's Mansion
* Pritzker giving, raising funds for 'blue wave'
* Rauners move back into Illinois Governor's Mansion
* George Will: Battling campus oppression of the freedom of expression


* No one hurt after shots fired in Urbana
* Police respond to shooting in East St. Louis
* Juvenile airlifted to regional hospital after Sunday morning rollover crash in Ava
* Mascoutah Pool won't open until end of June
* Solo: A Star Wars Story official trailer
* Organizers: Lakeside Triathlon postponed for 2018, expect 2019 return
* Noon update: Partly sunny and mild
* Major Case Squad investigating Alton double homicide
* Spillane wins Big Ten Player of the Year
* Allerton Park fundraising goal: $8 million


* Robbers armed with AK-47 hold up Gurnee bank
* Proud mom orders 'Summa Cum Laude' cake online. Publix censors it to 'Summa … Laude.'
* Concerts: Elbo Room gets funky with The King of Mars
* Trump: North Korea summit 'may not work out' for June 12
* Splish splash summertime bash – what's new at the Dells

* How the Public Finance Network will push C...
* CNN House Key Race alerts: A dozen GOP-hel...
* This RSS feed URL is deprecated
* Hultgren talks gun control after St. Charl...
* Lobbying intensifies for advance refunding...
* Letter: Hultgren isn't good for the enviro...
* PPP: Rodney Davis up by only 3, Hultgren a...
* Letter: Let's fix the Trump issue - Northw...
* Blockchain Is 'World-Changing', Says US Co...
* Congressional Hearing on UFOs Suggested by...

* Education Sec. DeVos Unfazed by Conflict o......
* US Marshal in Chicago leaves office withou......
* Trump floats large fine, management change......
* US lawmakers say they will try to block po......
* Arizona in brief: Drilling rig topples nea......

* Video: In therapy with Sally Wingert at Mi......
* Washington, DC's Mayor Just Adopted a Baby......
* Citizen Bulletin: Governor Rauner Proposes......
* Decatur-Macon County Opportunities Corp. r......
* Adams Co. poll worker told not to bring in......

* Lisagor and more, or some stories that other Chicago media types also thought were great
* A bold crimson red is a pick-me-up for a dreary spring
* Will the new ‘McDonald's of the future’ on Restaurant Row earn a Michelin star?
* Hitting Left with the Klonsky Brothers. Episode 67. The Grassroots Collaborative’s Nathan Ryan.
* Saigon. 1968.
* It's Demo Day!
* More on state payments to TRIP.
* Illinois schools sue Rauner over failure to provide adequate school funding.
* About those associate judge results and that plea for civility....
* Supreme Court Delivers For Sports Bettors. Now States Need To Scramble


* Rend Lake Water Conservancy District Water Main Break
* Statement from Gov. Rauner
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May
* IEMA Highlights Role of Volunteers in Disasters
* Governor Rauner activates State Emergency Operations Center in Springfield

  
* No one’s ready for GDPR
* Ryan Reynolds, Michael Bay, and the writers of Deadpool are making a Netflix movie
* Nigel Farage thinks Facebook is censoring conservatives
* California Congressional candidate goes after fellow Democrat with anti-Bitcoin attack ad
* Tesla Model 3 updates coming after Consumer Reports found ‘big flaws’
* ACLU tells AWS: Stop selling facial recognition tools to the government
* A complete list of everyone we’re muting on Instagram

* 2018 MLB Draft Profile: Brady Singer
* Most Essential White Sox Vote: Round 3
* Shields matches up with Gausman, Orioles
* Renteria pulls Castillo for failure to hustle
* Jimenez continues mashing with 8th HR
* Trio of solo HRs sink Santiago, White Sox
* White Sox Minor League Update: May 21, 2018


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller