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One way 2016 could impact 2018

Friday, Jul 29, 2016

* Riopell

Many delegates at both the Republican and Democratic conventions expressed dissatisfaction with their parties’ presidential nominees, and that discord could have an effect on Illinois’ 2018 election.

Voters upset with the choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton could turn to Libertarian Gary Johnson or the Green Party’s Jill Stein for president on their Illinois ballots. And if either — or both — gets more than 5 percent of the vote, it’ll be much easier for those parties to get a candidate for governor on the 2018 ballot.

That’s because crossing the 5 percent threshold in Illinois means a party’s statewide contenders would only need 5,000 petition signatures to get on the ballot instead of 25,000.

Ten years ago, Green Party candidate for governor Rich Whitney got nearly 10 percent of the vote, making it easier for his party to get ballot access, at least temporarily.

We’ll have to see how all this plays out. This portends to be a hugely negative election, between two candidates who, so far, aren’t widely liked (we’ll have to see what this week did for Clinton, but Trump’s convention bounce was not that big). That could very well force voters to flee to the sidelines or to third party candidates.

* But the Donald should probably avoid saying stuff like this

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Thursday afternoon he wanted to “hit” some of the Democratic National Convention speakers “so hard” while watching them last night, including a “little guy…so hard his head would spin.”

“You know what I wanted to. I wanted to hit a couple of those speakers so hard,” Trump said. “I would have hit them. No, no. I was going to hit them, I was all set and then I got a call from a highly respected governor.”

Trump didn’t immediately clarify what he meant, but he said he was made particularly upset by an unspecified person he called a “little guy.”

“I was gonna hit one guy in particular, a very little guy,” he said. “I was gonna hit this guy so hard his head would spin and he wouldn’t know what the hell happened.”

If you watch the video, it’s pretty clear he was talking about former NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who I thought gave one of the best “disqualifying” speeches of the week.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

61 Comments
  1. - Amalia - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:02 am:

    After last night, I feel particularly strong about my party, in every respect. Especially the Republicans and Independents climbing on and speaking to support the amazing Hillary Rodham Clinton.


  2. - Lomez - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:12 am:

    ==But the Donald should probably avoid saying stuff like this…==

    Why? When has it hurt him?

    I also think it was pretty clear what he meant. I don’t think a Gov steered him away from actually striking someone. “Attack”, “go after”, etc.


  3. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:14 am:

    ===Why? When has it hurt him?===

    This ain’t the primary, bubba.


  4. - iroquois county dem - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:15 am:

    I’m starting to fear for the future of our nation when I see so many people who up until now I have considered sane and reasonable falling in line behind this loud mouth bully


  5. - Valerie F. Leonard - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:19 am:

    Trump couldn’t even face the folks at UIC, much less follow through on his desire to smack some DNC speakers around. The things he says when he’s safely tucked away.


  6. - Cow farmer - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:20 am:

    Trump is going to win in November
    Illinois does not really matter in a presidential race
    Hillary is in deep trouble in this race
    Trump is up in national polls remember Reagan was 28 down coming out of conventions in 1980
    He will just keep a lead better than the polls margins of error
    He is doing better in battle ground states than national polls
    Trump will be the next President of these United States


  7. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:21 am:

    I’m one of those people who has to decide what to do. I have serious misgivings about both major party candidates, not necessarily equally but enough to strongly consider going third party or skipping it. I suspect I am not alone. If the Democrats had not put up such a flawed candidate this would be no contest, im my opinion.


  8. - LizPhairTax - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:22 am:

    Cow Farmer, is that some kind of modified haiku?


  9. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:23 am:

    ===remember Reagan was 28 down coming out of conventions in 1980===

    No, I don’t remember. And the reason is you’re completely wrong about the facts. Reagan led after the conventions, doofus: http://themonkeycage.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/trialheats1980.png


  10. - Archiesmom - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:25 am:

    Just an example of the kind of temperament you want in your commander-in-chief. This guy scares me to death.


  11. - Cow farmer - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:26 am:

    Just an Illinois farmer that raises corn, soybeans, hay, cattle, kids and plays politics for our future


  12. - Honeybear - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:26 am:

    Thanks for posting. I knew turnout affected 3rd party but did not know about the signature threshold.


  13. - Saluki - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:29 am:

    Meh. Trump said something that offends a few people’s sensibilities. What else is new? There are not nearly as many hyper sensitive voters across american as some may believe.


  14. - Cow farmer - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:29 am:

    Ok so it was before the conventions Reagan was still way down, it was a long time ago. Trump is no Reagan but in the end the result is still the same Trump wins it.
    This is not hoping, wishing, or what I would want just an observation he wins it


  15. - here we go - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:33 am:

    I imagine this will likely be important if the Dems get a gubernatorial candidate that is not inspiring.


  16. - jeffinginchicago - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:35 am:

    I have been saying that I would vote for either 3rd party candidate to get them over 5%. That is the threshold to get matching federal funds for 2020. I had not considered the IL governors race. Now I have an even better reason to go 3rd party.


  17. - kimocat - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:36 am:

    Trump disgusts me. Bloomberg described him to a tee. And Trumps reaction just reinforces it.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:37 am:

    Reagan was “down 40″ in Jauary of 1980… in May it eroded…

    http://goo.gl/4H8KHh

    From the link…

    “The plot shows what Chait describes, which is the ebbing of Carter’s poll standing throughout 1980. Indeed, Reagan didn’t need his convention bump—which he certainly got—to put him in the lead. The Democratic convention helped erode.”

    2016 will be, and has been nothing like 1980

    At all.


  19. - Lomez - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:39 am:

    ==I’m starting to fear for the future of our nation when I see so many people who up until now I have considered sane and reasonable falling in line behind this loud mouth bully==

    Just know we feel the same about HRC and her believers.


  20. - Anonymous - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:40 am:

    Cow farmer was wrong about Reagan but he is dead on with the other statements. CNN had him up 3 and when they included Johnson, he was up 5. If CNN has him up, …….

    Trump will attack her on 4-5 fronts and will win in November. And if other scandals come out, which is very likely, it will be over before November.


  21. - Jorge - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:43 am:

    I’m pretty sure Drumpf wouldn’t do much damage with those T-Rex hands of his


  22. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:47 am:

    ===If CNN has him up===

    Oh, please. One poll does not a trend make.

    Look at the RCP polling average, which is linked above: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html


  23. - Lomez - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:49 am:

    ==This ain’t the primary, bubba==

    I expect this to be as relevant and applicable as every other election / campaign tenet has been with respect to him.


  24. - A guy - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:59 am:

    BB, that’s just silly. Ivanka’s husband is Jewish and has been very supportive. I’m amazed your nutty comment made it through any filter.


  25. - Henry Francis - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:00 am:

    Why doesn’t Bloomberg just walk up to the Donald, say here I am, and see what happens? That’s how you deal with Bullies. Either he would be exposed for the fraud that he is, or he would look even worse taking a swing at the guy (and I doubt it would be a John Wayne slug)


  26. - Maximus - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:01 am:

    Given the dislike for both major candidates I would expect the libertarian party to do really well this year. Could be the start of a new political party getting a foot hold and letting people know there is a viable third choice.


  27. - @MisterJayEm - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:01 am:

    “Trump is no Reagan but in the end the result is still the same Trump wins it. This is not hoping, wishing, or what I would want just an observation he wins it.”

    So you think you’re observing… the future?

    You might want to see a doctor about that.

    – MrJM


  28. - Sir Reel - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:01 am:

    See how well Donald can work with those who disagree with him?

    When he’s President, I’m sure he’ll go across the aisle (to punch those who disagree with him).

    Maybe he’ll grow up in the next 3 months.


  29. - Jocko - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:05 am:

    CF@9:20a

    Which of Trump’s seven positions do you agree with…or do you simply like the idea of a 70 year old man “knocking out” people who upset him?


  30. - 47th Ward - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:14 am:

    I think the third parties are going to do pretty well this year, perhaps well enough that we have a realistic shot at four parties in Illinois in 2018, although I think Gary Johnson is going to do much better than Jill Stein in Illinois.

    The other impact that 2016 will have on 2018 is probably worth more attention on this blog because of its bigger impact on the Governor’s race. If Hillary Clinton wins, the GOP should expect 2018 to be a landslide year reminiscent of 1994.

    If Donald Trump wins, expect martial law and a suspension all elections until the civil unrest, chaos and rioting is put down by force.


  31. - G'Kar - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:21 am:

    So who would a third party candidate in 2018 hurt more Rauner or the Democrat challenger? It seems to me that Rauner would love to have a Green Party candidate on the ballot. I don’t know who a Libertarian would help/hurt.


  32. - 47th Ward - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:24 am:

    === I don’t know who a Libertarian would help/hurt.===

    Imagine if Governor Rauner signs an income tax hike before 2018 and still runs for re-election. Does that help your imagination?


  33. - Anonymous - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:30 am:

    Henry Francis. Kudos. It may be the swing that cuts the Gordian knot


  34. - A Jack - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:32 am:

    So cow farmer, when Trump ends free trade, and countries that had bought your produce tariff-free decide to put huge tariffs on farm produce to relaliate and protect their farmers, what will you do with the produce you can’t sell?

    But you do have an option. Trump University likely has a course in bankruptcy.


  35. - Honeybear - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:36 am:

    –although I think Gary Johnson is going to do much better than Jill Stein in Illinois.–

    Just curious. Why do you feel that? No challenging you, just curious. I know he’s nationally at 5% vs 3% for Jill but now the DNC convention is over I imagine this will go up. Just interested in your Illinois analysis.


  36. - A Jack - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:36 am:

    Why would Trump bother to punch anyone if he is elected.

    After all, he will have nuclear weapons and drones at his disposal.


  37. - Paddyrollingstone - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:37 am:

    what a tough guy. I would be shocked, shocked, if Trump has ever actuality been in a real fight.


  38. - 47th Ward - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:43 am:

    HB, I think there are a lot of Jim Edgar Republicans who won’t be able to vote for Trump. Pat Brady is one. OW is another. And they won’t be able to vote for Clinton either. In my estimation, there are more of those sorts of Republicans who will find Johnson an acceptable place to lodge their anti-Trump protest vote.

    Disaffected Dems, on the other hand, especially in Illinois, can’t afford to waste a vote on Jill Stein. There is too much at stake, not the least of which is the open Supreme Court seat. It is not a hypothetical that the next President will appoint a justice: it is a certainty. I don’t believe the Democrats in Illinois will risk a protest vote when the stakes are so incredibly high.

    Also, Hillary has strong, deep and time-tested connections to many Illinois Democrats. She is in many ways Illinois’favorite daughter now.

    Just my opinion though.


  39. - The Fool On The Hill - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:44 am:

    Democrats have successfully grabbed the center while Trump is on the far-right fringe.


  40. - Name/Nickname/Anon - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:48 am:

    How does the third party polling trend compare to other years? IIRC, third parties tend to poll at roughly 3-5% around this time then drop dramatically to the whopping 0.8% they usually get.

    Now, if Johnson can somehow get into the debates, as a for all actual purposes Republican running with a for all actual purposes Republican running mate, he could peel off more apprehensive voters from Trump than Clinton.


  41. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:53 am:

    ===OW is another.===

    100% accurate.

    No Trump, never Trump.

    ===In my estimation, there are more of those sorts of Republicans who will find Johnson an acceptable place to lodge their anti-Trump protest vote.===

    I am seriously struggling with this dilemma.

    Another mitigating factor is to vote for the Liberterian to allow Rauner to face a 3rd party in 2018 to his Right in the General.

    That may be attractive to me. Dunno yet.

    It’s a struggle, there’s no doubt.


  42. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 10:59 am:

    In 2014, I left “Governor” blank, for the record.

    The struggle for 2018 might come to that as well.


  43. - Anonymous - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:01 am:

    Name/Nickname/Anon—The CNN poll I referenced above showed more votes peeled away from Clinton when the 3 candidates were included. Yes, I know, it is just one poll.


  44. - Anonymous - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:03 am:

    Sir Reel, how well has Obama worked with those across the aisle? Say what you want about Trump, but the current prez is not the great compromiser that he said he would be.


  45. - burbanite - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:12 am:

    If Bloomberg was the “little guy” to which Trump referred it clearly was not based on the respect he garners or the wealth he controls. His business acumen makes Trump look like an amateur. Trump scares me, if he doesn’t scare you, you aren’t looking hard enough. Or, perhaps he was right, after all he likes the “poorly educated”. Seriously what has he ever done for any one other than himself?

    I have protest voted in the past, but this is not the year for such a vote. It is too important.


  46. - 47th Ward - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:16 am:

    ===how well has Obama worked with those across the aisle?===

    Lol. You mean these guys?

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/the-republicans-plan-for-the-new-president/


  47. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:32 am:

    I don’t think the 2016 Presidential race will impact Illinois in 2018 much unless we have a similar “Perfect Storm” type scenario where both major party gubernatorial candidates are north of 60% unfavorable and have a significant percentage of people unable to vote for either of them. Could happen, but it’s not dependent on what happens this November, just the facts of that particular race.


  48. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:39 am:

    ===I don’t think the 2016 Presidential race will impact Illinois in 2018 much… ===

    If 3rd party (Liberterian) can get easier access in slotting a Gubernatorial candidate, that could very well have an impact on Rauner or (Green) on a possible Democratic Gubernatorial nominee.

    It could be impactful with easier ballot access.


  49. - Sir Reel - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:43 am:

    Anonymous 11:03, yes Obama hasn’t always worked across the aisle. But he almost had a grand bargain with Boehner, he based Obamacare on a Republican idea, he had a Republican on his cabinet (Lahood), etc.

    Republicans have vilified him and refuse to cooperate.

    And he’s never said he wanted to hit one.


  50. - Blue dog dem - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:48 am:

    Labor. Vote accordingly. TPP will be the final straw for us. Never Hillary.


  51. - Kathryn - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 11:57 am:

    Trump is a draft dodger, a big mouth bully that couldn’t fight his way out of a paper bag. Did you see how he grabbed onto his body guard when a protestor ran toward the stage a few months ago?
    When Americans were fighting in Viet Nam he was busy being a college playboy.


  52. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 12:00 pm:

    – It could be impactful with easier ballot access. –

    Sure. I was more focused on the motivation for large numbers of people to look at third parties. Without two major party candidates with massive negatives, that motivation just hasn’t been there.


  53. - Enviro - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 12:07 pm:

    Hillary Clinton spoke out against bad trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership:

    “…and no to bad trade deals and unfair trade practices including the Trans Pacific Partnership.”

    http://www.aflcio.org/Blog/Political-Action-Legislation/Hillary-Clinton-Opposes-TPP


  54. - 47th Ward - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 12:12 pm:

    ===Hillary Clinton spoke out against bad trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership===

    What’s left of the sane Republicans in Congress will be working very closely with President Obama to get the TPP approved before he leaves office. They can’t trust Clinton or Trump to do the right thing, so they better get it done before January.


  55. - ZC - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 12:17 pm:

    Well this thread is bringing out the talking points isn’t it.

    Everyone here who feels strongly about this election’s outcome, I hope you’re doing more than posting strongly worded comments to Capitol Fax blog. Go knock on some doors, dial some phones and give a few bucks if you want to really make your voice heard.


  56. - Ghost - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 12:23 pm:

    With all due respect, the green party has no viable electable canidates in big races. Its not like they are asking for ballott access to win, at best they just siphon protest votes from some party. The demonstration of angst serves no actual purpose.

    take the current topic. Do bernie supporters teally thunk they will be better off helpin Trump to win?
    because they dont have enough votes to do anything else.

    They need to come up with a real strategy to
    win, not just be the perpetual antiestablsihment also rans


  57. - Honeybear - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 12:54 pm:

    47th Thanks for the response. I would add however that Illinois is more safely in the HRC column and thus people like me will feel safer in “voting their conscience” for Jill. In truth, though, I’m still chewing on Chris Hedges critique of the neoliberal Dems and HRC. My recent research work at night is trying to tease out the things that would or would not be damaged by an HRC Presidency especially in light of the SCOTUS. I doubt she would change labor law or pick a judge that would allow it. Unfortunately labor leadership has put all it’s eggs in that basket. I think the deal was done at the crossroads at midnight. But anyway, I can see the LGBT and Minority communities getting really really shafted under a Trump Presidency. I feel a bit like a judge weighing arguments. I can tell you I wouldn’t like to do that. I also think that even if HRC wins we’re liable to lose both houses big time. That will stifle any work that HRC would do. It will be as it is now.

    So many things to factor in.


  58. - Last Bull Moose - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 2:07 pm:

    The Republicans may blow up this year like the Whigs did in the 1850’s. Trump is a modern mixture of the Nativist Know Nothings and Jacksonian Democrats. He displays a scary combination of racism, economic illiteracy, and international fecklessness.

    The Libertarian party could be the successor to the Republican party. Unlikely, I know. But this is one strange year.


  59. - Mama - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 4:01 pm:

    - kimocat - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 9:36 am: “Trump disgusts me. Bloomberg described him to a tee. And Trumps reaction just reinforces it. ”

    I agree 100%. Former governor Bloomberg gave an excellent description of Trump.


  60. - Mama - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 4:04 pm:

    Will someone please explain why people are against TPP? What makes it harmful to US workers?


  61. - Mama - Friday, Jul 29, 16 @ 4:19 pm:

    “even if HRC wins we’re liable to lose both houses big time. That will stifle any work that HRC would do. It will be as it is now.”

    I thought the Dems were the minority in both Houses in Congress. NO?


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