Today’s number: 20,000
Monday, Aug 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP…
Former Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn says a voter referendum aimed at imposing term limits on Chicago’s mayor and creating a consumer advocacy position won’t make the November ballot.
Quinn told The Associated Press he’s short of the roughly 53,000 signatures required by a Monday deadline. The Democrat says his goal is to get 100,000 and he’s got roughly 20,000.
He launched the petition drive in June, but wouldn’t say which election. He tells AP he’s aiming for 2018’s primary, when Illinois next elects a governor. Quinn hasn’t definitively ruled out another gubernatorial run.
Discuss.
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A good idea, but a big pricetag
Monday, Aug 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Letters to the editor on this topic have been popping up all over the place…
We are writing to you regarding the importance of House Bill 5931 that has recently passed the House and Senate with significant support and is now on its way to Governor Rauner’s desk.
This bill would raise the wages of Direct Support Professionals that provide services to children and adults with intellectual and other developmental disabilities. DSPs play a critical role by providing assistance to people with I/DD to learn daily living skills, find jobs, administer medications, provide transportation, and respond calmly to diffuse volatile situations that keep people out of the police departments or emergency rooms. Without DSPs, the health, safety, and welfare of thousands is jeopardized.
We serve as CEOs for three community organizations that combined serve more than 10,000 children and adults with I/DD. We are challenged with an unprecedented staffing crisis! This situation was not created by the current budget impasse, but rather years of neglect from our state government resulting in a system that ranks 47th in the nation. Today, the average wage for DSPs statewide is only $9.35/hour and community providers are reporting staff vacancy rates as high as 30 percent. With more than 23,000 people waiting for services, community providers can no longer respond to the needs in their community.
Our disability system is on the brink of disaster in Illinois. House Bill 5931 not only provides a livable wage to a valuable workforce, but it is the single most important measure that will stabilize a crumbling system. Governor Rauner must sign House Bill 5931.
More are here, here, here and here.
* The Tribune editorial page likes the concept, but not the cost…
The bill sounds swell but includes no funding source. Even if Rauner signs it, the state doesn’t have the roughly $300 million to pay for it (about half of that would be reimbursed by the federal government). Think check-kiting scheme.
Had legislators and Rauner hammered out a full-year budget, Perez and other parents might not be trapped in this vise.
But this is what happens when politicians care more about the November election than about helping the people they profess to help. The Democrat-led General Assembly, and eventually Rauner and many Republicans, decided this was the best they could do: Pass a half-measure and go home to campaign.
Thoughts?
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Question of the day
Monday, Aug 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This has been going around on Twitter so I decided to participate…
* The Question: What were your first seven jobs?
…Adding… I left out all my farm work because it was for my Granddad and I didn’t consider it work.
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* As I told you last week, Speaker Madigan’s vanquished primary opponent Jason Gonzales was planning to file suit against Madigan and others today. The suit has now been filed. Click here to see it.
The lawsuit also names Madigan lieutenant Shaw DeCreamer, Rep. Silvana Tabares, Ray Hanania, Joe Barbosa and Grasiela Rodriguez, as well as political funds Madigan controls. Barbosa and Rodriguez were allegedly Madigan’s put-up candidates to split the Latino vote against Gonzales. They received a combined vote of about 2,000. Gonzales got 7124 votes to Madigan’s 17,155.
The lawsuit claims that Madigan violated several of Gonzales’ rights by “tainting the pool of voters with messages” that Gonzales was a “convicted felon” who could “not be elected to public office.” Gonzales had been pardoned by Gov. Pat Quinn.
He also claims that Madigan “abridged the voting rights of Hispanics, including Gonzales, by diluting the Hispanic vote by registering two fake candidates with Hispanic surnames minutes after Gonzales filed his nominating petition.”
* Speaker Madigan’s response…
Jason Gonzales cannot be trusted and his lawsuit is without merit. According to Gonzales’ own court filing today, his criminal activity “resulted in several arrests, criminal charges, and felony and misdemeanor convictions.” Further, in an interview with FOX 32 News political editor Mike Flannery on March 4, 2016, Gonzales admitted to being a convicted felon. Additionally, many times during the campaign, Gonzales made statements about his criminal past. Gonzales’ losing campaign against me last spring was funded with more than $1 million from supporters and allies of Governor Bruce Rauner. Voters of my district soundly renominated me based on my strong record of service, giving me more than 65 percent of the vote, and they emphatically rejected Jason Gonzales because they knew he couldn’t be trusted.
*** UPDATE *** Sun-Times…
“I knew that this battle was going to be a uphill battle when I started. I knew it was going to be tough. I knew Speaker Madigan was going to play dirty, but I had no idea that he was going to come and use fraudulent, dirty and illegal tactics to win a race,” Gonzales said Monday.
“This stuff has got to stop. These fraudulent illegal tactics have got to stop. We have to stand up. We have to stand united against the machine when they do these kinds of things, and we have to keep fighting,” Gonzalez said.
Throughout the campaign, Gonzales maintained that he and Madigan were the only candidates on the ballot until he submitted his paperwork just minutes ahead of the filing deadline, allegedly prompting a Madigan operative to quickly pull out petitions in Grasiela Rodriguez’ and Joe Barbosa’s names.
“We know a phony ghost candidate when we see one,” Peraica said. “And I’ve seen plenty. These two are it. And Speaker Madigan knew it. He allowed it. He promoted it.”
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17-year-olds now have more voter rights
Monday, Aug 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a Friday press release…
Individuals who will be 18 years old at the next election are now able to fully participate in the election process under legislation sponsored by Senator Dan McConchie and signed into law by Governor Rauner on August 5.
“There’s no reason to say that 17-year-olds have the right to vote and prevent them from otherwise participating in the election process,” said Senator McConchie. “Now, qualified 17-year-olds can sign and circulate petitions, pre-register to vote and act as deputy registrars. This new law makes the voting rights that 17-year-olds already have more complete.”
The new law also acts as an expansion of a 2013 law that allowed 17-year-olds who would be 18 by the general election to vote in the primary election. House Bill 6167 went a bit further to allow 17-year-olds the ability to vote in a caucus or a consolidated primary as long as they would be 18 when the corresponding election takes place.
“As the state has already decided that 17-year-olds should be allowed to vote in general primary elections for federal, state and county office, they then too should be allowed to have a say at the local level,” said Sen. McConchie.
Agreed. Good bill.
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The Sandack mystery deepens
Monday, Aug 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
A police investigation that Republican Ronald L. Sandack initiated shortly before he mysteriously resigned from the Legislature last month doesn’t involve Sandack’s former role as a west suburban state representative, a newly released document related to the case shows.
And while an initial police report disclosed that Sandack had reported an “internet scam” to police, “the actual criminal activity that took place” was something different, the document also appears to reveal. But exactly what police are investigating is being withheld because that investigation is ongoing. […]
The letter also reveals that screenshots of “messages and social media pages” have been preserved as evidence. […]
“Mr. Sandack came to the police station to report that he was the victim of an ‘internet scam,’ as he later publicly reported,” Petrarca wrote. “However upon providing further information to the police officer it was determined that the actual criminal activity that took place and was being reported was [redacted]. This is certainly different than an ‘internet scam’ or ‘hacking’.”
* From the report…
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* The Illinois Press Association has issued an official statement on Dan Proft’s string of pro-Republican newspapers…
Official statement of the Illinois Press Association Board of Directors
The Illinois Press Association has been approached about the regional ‘newspapers’ which have been introduced to Illinois voters this election cycle.
Obviously, the IPA respects the First Amendment protections of freedom of speech and freedom of the press which allows each of us the right to speak freely, and publish newspapers or newsletters if we wish. While imitation is the highest form of flattery, the IPA cautions readers to become as news literate as possible; that is, to try to determine the source behind the news and information they receive and to question the legitimacy, integrity and intent of both the source and the message.
Technology has significantly lowered the barrier for entry into publishing—for both print and digital, making it extremely difficult to distinguish between legitimate news and political propaganda. News and information shape the decisions we make every day and the importance of news literacy is becoming more and more important each day.
People are continually inundated with messages from this growing number of platforms and it is often unclear as to the source or the integrity of the message or the platform. The newspapers published under the banners of Chambana Sun, DuPage Policy Journal, East Central Reporter, Kankakee Times, Lake County Gazette, McHenry Times, Metro East Sun, North Cook News, Rock Island Today, Sangamon Sun, SW Illinois News, West Central Reporter, West Cook News, are not members of the Illinois Press Association, nor are they eligible for membership in the Association.
The IPA is grateful that so many continue to view local newspapers as the best method to communicate with Illinois communities and Illinois voters.
* Here’s a recent example from SW Illinois News…
Dave Severin, Republican candidate for House District 117, recently called out his opponent John Bradley (D-Dist. 117) after second quarter fundraising reports were released by the State Board of Elections.
“Second quarter fundraising reports are in,” Severin said. “Now we know where John Bradley’s money and support comes from. Will you help us beat John Bradley, Springfield insiders and the Chicago political machine?”
Severin pointed out that while his own funds are raised in southern Illinois, his opponent’s financial support originates primarily in Chicago, with a significant amount raised in Springfield. Severin raised $9,335, while Bradley raised $55,000 in Chicago, $12,400 in Springfield and approximately $2,000 in Southern Illinois.
The source of Bradley’s campaign funds adds fuel to Severin’s claims that the Democratic incumbent is part of the Chicago political machine. Bradley also supported House Speaker Mike Madigan (D-Dist. 22) during the budget impasse.
No mention, of course, that Severin is already benefiting from hundreds of thousands of dollars in TV ads and mailers that were almost completely financed by Gov. Rauner.
Hat tip: Politico.
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* This AP brief misses a significant point…
A Winnebago County courtroom is the setting for a struggle over Gov. Bruce Rauner’s so-called turnaround agenda.
A lawsuit by the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 is technically about whether the Rockford City Council violated the state Open Meetings Act in April. The Rockford Register Start reports (http://bit.ly/2aDlbRC ) that aldermen approved a resolution supporting the Republican governor’s pro-business, anti-union proposals. […]
Republican state lawmakers urged the city to adopt a “compromise” resolution. It was not on the council’s agenda the night of the vote. Ed Maher of Local 150 says the lawsuit is justified.
* It turns out that Gov. Rauner himself was involved in lobbying the city council…
Ald. Joe Chiarelli said he had no idea how high the stakes were surrounding the Turnaround Agenda resolution before the matter made its way to the City Council floor. He said he remembers sitting at home on the Sunday morning before the meeting, studying the City Council agenda to prepare for the meeting. It was raining outside. Then the phone rang. Chiarelli answered it, and a member of Rauner’s staff asked if he would take a call from the governor.
“He told me that the resolution was really important to him,” Chiarelli said. “He said he ran his campaign on this Turnaround Agenda. He said (the resolution) could be contentious. The first thing I thought was, why is the governor calling me?”
There are 14 aldermanic wards in Rockford, and Chiarelli, a Republican, represents the 14th Ward. If a roll call vote on the City Council floor begins with the 1st Ward alderman, Chiarelli votes last, which means he can be a tiebreaker — or force the mayor to break a tie — on a controversial matter.
“It was clear to me after my deposition why the governor called me,” Chiarelli said. “I’m the 14th vote. I have been friendly to labor. How the governor found that out, I don’t know. But he told me: ‘I’ve heard that you’re an alderman that will look at both sides … . I’d really like it if you could take a hard look at this resolution.’”
Sheesh. If he’d spent half that energy lobbying the General Assembly’s Democrats during his first session, we might not be in this mess today.
Also, too, Rauner didn’t run on “right to work” in the fall campaign, which is what that push for local municipal resolutions was really about.
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Moving a little slow today
Monday, Aug 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I was power-washing my deck yesterday afternoon and tripped and fell down some stairs. Got some road rash on an elbow and twisted my right ankle but good. No broken bones, according to the x-ray, but man am I ever sore today on my right side. Hip, leg and ankle are all ouchies.
I missed most of the State Fair last year because of surgery, and I remember thinking as I was struggling to get up off the wet concrete yesterday that no way would this keep me from going this year. I should be fine in a few days.
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* Refresh your memory and get some background on this post by clicking here.
From Rep. Bob Martwick’s Facebook page…
Offering a financial incentive to an elected official to secure their vote on a subject is corruption. If you do that, you will go to jail. Withholding pay in order to force a vote is no different. Our impasse in Springfield has nothing to do with being able to do that math. Instead it is about one side wanting to impose profound change to our system and is trying to force the other side to do it against the wishes of the people they represent. Politicians in Illinois are not very popular. I often hear “you should work for free.”
Of course if we did that, then the only people who could serve would be people like Rauner, Madigan, Cullerton, and me. Shouldn’t everyone have the opportunity to serve? Do you really just want a bunch of wealthy businessmen and lawyers making the laws that affect your life? Wouldn’t you rather have some representatives who know what it means to struggle from day to day so that when they vote on laws, they can relate to the issues you deal with?
Jaime M Andrade Jr. is an extremely effective, smart and hard working representative. He has an understanding of the legislative process that is unparalleled. By denying him pay, Leslie Geissler Munger and Bruce Rauner are trying, and succeeding, at putting him in a very difficult financial decision. That is extortion and corruption. Plain and simple. Kudos to Jaime for being willing to do whatever it takes to stay true to the people he represents.
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Oh, this ought to be good
Monday, Aug 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
The National Conference of State Legislatures is in town for its annual meeting. Tim Mapes, longtime righthand man to Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, is scheduled to speak on a panel about redistricting.
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* From Normington, Petts and Associates…
To: Interested Parties
From: Jill Normington
Date: August 8, 2016
MEMORANDUM
The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 800 likely voters in Illinois. Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted August 1-4, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Summary
• After the recent television exchange, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has expanded her lead over Senator Mark Kirk to 44% to 37%.
• Duckworth clearly won the recent television exchange that has strengthened her position and drained him of resources.
• These improvements for Duckworth took place without any commensurate advantage in the presidential race.
Over the course of the last three weeks, despite national polls showing a convention bounce for Hillary Clinton, our polling indicates that Illinois is unaffected. Our July 11-14 poll showed Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump 51%-32%. The current August 1-4 poll shows Clinton besting Trump 51%-32%. Partisan identification is actually net two points more Republican over that span. While there is stasis at the top of the ticket, what has changed is the Senate race.
In late June, Republican incumbent Senator Mark Kirk began an advertising campaign in the Chicago media market focused on distancing himself from Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. From June 23-July 28, Kirk spent more than a million dollars on two television ads that sought to establish his independence from his Republican party and attacked Tammy Duckworth on her commitment to Veterans, using the IDVA lawsuit as his primary evidence. According to his most recent FEC filing, Kirk’s million-dollar television expenditure was roughly one-third of his total cash on hand of $3.1M.
From July 14-29, Duckworth spent just $620,00 defending herself and reacquainting voters with her record. The net effect of this exchange, despite getting outspent, is that Duckworth increased her lead over Kirk. As the chart below indicates, our July poll showed Duckworth leading Kirk by just two points, 40%-38% in the wake of more than $500,000 worth of advertising from Kirk to which Duckworth had yet to respond. This most recent poll shows Duckworth leading Kirk by seven, 44%-37%, after airing her rebuttal ad.
Duckworth made gains among constituencies critical to Kirk’s success in November. She pulled ahead among Independents and grew her vote among white voters downstate, among whites without a college degree and among Veteran households. Moreover, she continues to hold substantial leads among the core Democratic constituencies of African American (71%-12%), Hispanic (69%-17%), women (48%-31%) and millennial (46%-32%) voters.
It is clear that when Duckworth has adequate resources to compete in a television exchange, that she can win it. Moreover, Kirk expenditures only served to increase Duckworth’s already sizeable cash on hand advantage over him. While there are still three months to go until Election Day, Tammy Duckworth has emerged from the initial round of paid communication with Mark Kirk in better electoral and fiscal shape than when it began.
* The chart…
…Adding… Mobile phone users were 50 percent of the total.
*** UPDATE *** From the Kirk campaign…
Just like every other Democrat, Duckworth got a temporary bump after the Democrat convention. But as her previous poll shows and the one released by the super pac demonstrates as well, once the race settles back down it’s a dead even race heading into the fall.
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Voter suppression?
Monday, Aug 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Is Illinois the next state to deal with “voter suppression”? Maybe, depending how you look at it.
You may know that a conservative group filed a federal lawsuit last week to stop Illinois’ election-day voter registration law from being carried out this November. The group’s top expert in the case is probably best known for his vigorous defense of Wisconsin’s controversial voter ID law, which was declared unconstitutional by a federal judge last month. Requiring voters to produce identification at the polls has often been ruled as an unconstitutional suppression tactic in numerous recent cases.
M.V. Hood III, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, is consulting on the new case for the Illinois Policy Institute’s legal arm, the Liberty Justice Center. The lawsuit argues that since Illinois only requires in-precinct voter registration on election day in counties with populations over 100,000, it should be struck down for violating the constitutional equal protection rights of people in the other counties. Under state law, counties under 100,000 population must have a same-day voter registration process, but they are allowed to have only one central registration/voting location.
Same-day registration proved crucial on election day two years ago in a super-tight Illinois House race, when state Rep. Kate Cloonen (D-Kankakee) barely defeated Republican Glenn Nixon by a mere 122 votes. Cloonen is near the very top of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s political hit list this year.
Not all, but most of the legislative Democrats targeted for defeat this year are in counties of over 100,000 people where same-day in-precinct registration is mandatory. Same-day registration certainly gives them an advantage in those counties because Democrats generally have a much better “ground game” than the Republicans. They have far more foot soldiers and a system to get people to the polls at the last minute.
But if the entire same-day registration law is enjoined for this cycle, as Hood and the Illinois Policy Institute want, the ruling would undoubtedly have a negative impact on Democrats in every single contested House and Senate race in the state.
Rauner has supported same-day registration in the past, but he has contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to the Illinois Policy Institute, although everybody denies any current direct involvement. Even so, the Institute’s director John Tillman maintains very close ties to Rauner, is said by GOP insiders to be assisting Rauner with his messaging and was seen on video walking out of a recent Chicago term limits press conference with the governor.
Hood was a witness for Wisconsin this year as the Republican-controlled state attempted to fend off an attempt to declare its voter ID law unconstitutional. He claimed he knew of no reason why the state’s requirements to provide proof of identification in order to vote “will have a detrimental impact on the ability of Wisconsin voters to cast a ballot, including minority voters,” according to a May 26th Wisconsin State Journal article.
But on July 29, U.S. District Judge James Peterson declared, “To put it bluntly, Wisconsin’s strict version of voter ID law is a cure worse than the disease” and ordered the state to supply voters with ID cards within 30 days. Earlier this year, the former chief of staff to a Wisconsin GOP state Senator alleged that Republican Senators were “giddy” during a private caucus meeting “and literally singled out the prospects of suppressing minority and college voters” with a voter ID law.
Hood has also defended Georgia’s voter ID requirements, saying that while it did suppress turnout, he could find “no empirical evidence to suggest that there is a racial or ethnic component to this suppression effect.”
The new Illinois lawsuit points out that the same-day law was passed with only Democratic votes and was signed by a Democratic governor. “Not coincidentally,” the group wrote in a statement, “high-population counties in Illinois tend to favor Democratic candidates; low-population counties in Illinois tend to favor Republican candidates.”
But state Rep. Christian Mitchell (D-Chicago) took to Twitter to repeatedly denounce the Illinois Policy Institute’s lawsuit as an attempt at “voter suppression,” similar to what happened in Wisconsin. Mitchell, an African-American legislator who strongly supported the same-day bill, claimed that, after “defending Rauner ‘budgets,’” the conservative think tank is “now doing his dirty work of voter suppression.” The group responded by repeating its legal claim that the law violates the U.S. Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause.
This is, without a doubt, the single most fascinating year for Illinois politics in my lifetime. And it’s only gonna get weirder as every single trick in the book is played—and maybe some that aren’t even in the book.
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