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Poll: Clinton up by 13

Monday, Sep 19, 2016

* Press release

In its new survey of Illinois, the Loras College Poll finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a lead over Republican Donald Trump. The live-caller statewide survey of a random sample of 600 likely voters was conducted Sept. 13-16. […]

    Hillary Clinton 43 percent
    Donald Trump 30 percent
    Gary Johnson 8 percent
    Jill Stein 3 percent

    Unsure 14 percent

* More

Clinton and Trump both continue to struggle with the public’s perception of them. Even in the state she used to call home, 50 percent of likely Illinois voters view Clinton unfavorably, while 67 percent view Donald Trump negatively. […]

    Candidate Net Favorability
    Hillary Clinton -8
    Donald Trump

About even numbers of Trump supporters indicate they intend to vote for the real estate mogul more out of opposition to Clinton (46 percent) than in support of Trump (44 percent). For Clinton, a majority (54 percent) indicated that their choice of Clinton was due more to support of her than opposition to Trump.

Nothing unifies quite like an opponent can, and that’s particularly true of Trump supporters right now.

* Back to the poll

In terms of race, Trump’s support among Hispanic and African-American voters is very small, with only 10 percent of Hispanic voters surveyed intending to vote for the real estate mogul. Only 4 percent of African-Americans surveyed indicated they intend to vote for Trump. […]

Geography is also an important element in understanding Illinois politics, with the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and City of Chicago holding substantial importance politically and economically. Downstate Illinois comprises the third geographic unit of analysis. Geographic differences in voter preference are revealed in this Loras Poll, as Clinton’s margin is strongest in the City of Chicago (64 percent Clinton to 12 percent Trump), while within the Chicago MSA the race is more competitive (42 percent for Clinton and 31 percent for Trump). There is one geographic region in which Trump holds the advantage over Clinton. In downstate Illinois Trump leads over Clinton 40 percent to 31 percent.

President Obama’s job approval rating is 55 percent, compared to 40 percent who disapprove.

* Other stuff

53 percent of likely voters expect that Hillary Clinton will be elected in November, while 26 percent expect the winner to be Donald Trump.

35 percent of likely voters believe the country is on the right track, with 51 percent indicating the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Looking at the impact of partisanship on perception of the direction of the country, Democrats are more positive than Republicans—52 percent of Democrats believe the country is on the right track compared to just 11 percent of Republicans. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 33 percent of Democrats.

Only 24 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of both Clinton and Trump.

That last line is interesting. You’d think by reading analysis online that everybody hates both candidates.

Methodology is here. Crosstabs are here.

Their US Senate poll results will be released tomorrow.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

15 Comments
  1. - G'Kar - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:09 pm:

    Well, I guess I’m one of that 24%.


  2. - FearTheTree - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:16 pm:

    I’m part of the 30%. And I voted 2x for President Obama.

    Whatever the outcome (and I believe that HRC will take IL), Trump will outperform Romney’s 17% point loss in 2012 by at least 5% points.


  3. - Archiesmom - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:17 pm:

    I’m part of the 24%, but I’m voting for Hillary because Trump scares me way too much.


  4. - Downstate Dem - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:30 pm:

    Has anyone done a poll recently in the race for state comptroller? I’m guessing it’s about tied with a lot of undecideds?


  5. - Piece of Work - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:32 pm:

    Trump is flawed, HRC is REALLY, REALLY flawed.

    Trump gets my vote. Hillary is 68 and seems to be 80. In the end, the debates do her in because voters will focus on the economy, ISIS and the border and she has no answers.


  6. - Ron - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:32 pm:

    I generally like Clinton and despise Trump. Easy vote.

    What scares me is that Trump has more than 20%.


  7. - A guy - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:39 pm:

    ==Hillary Clinton 43 percent
    Donald Trump 30 percent
    Gary Johnson 8 percent
    Jill Stein 3 percent
    Unsure 14 percent===

    That 14% unsure is trying to “rationalize voting for Trump”. I’m willing to guess he’ll get most of them, with the rest splintering between the others.

    I think HRC will win Illinois because of the huge Chicago advantage, but it will be single digit. Could be 5 or 6%. We’ll see. AA’s and Latinos are hard to poll. Turnout in Chicago precincts will determine Hillary’s percentage. That’s a really interesting poll.


  8. - Cheryl44 - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:43 pm:

    Mrs. Clinton wouldn’t be my first choice but I am not in the 24%. I think she’ll be fine.


  9. - Piece of Work - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:46 pm:

    HRC will win Illinois comfortably. However, her numbers will continue to tumble and Trump wins.

    The deplorables comment, more Wikileak releases, bad debate performances, etc.


  10. - ILPundit - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 3:57 pm:

    Anyone who thinks that Madigan’s unpopularity in districts where he is not on the ballot will “trump” the fact that the GOP Presidential nominee is struggling to break 30% statewide needs their head examined


  11. - chad - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 4:27 pm:

    I was floored by the 10% of Hispanics saying they will vote for Trump. Sounds like the unexpected percentage of African Americans in California that say they will vote for Trump (reported over the weekend over 10%). Won’t bring in those states for Trump, but a real shocker to me. Guess this goes to the reported enthusiasm gap


  12. - Touré's Latte - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 4:44 pm:

    I’m not surpised by anything anymore. I started in with Jim Webb and he was gone before I finished a cup of coffee.


  13. - weltschmerz - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 6:47 pm:

    ^#5 of the people recently polled (Realpolitic average) think the country is on the wrong track. Four more years?


  14. - Baloneymous - Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 7:08 pm:

    A guy you gave me the laugh of the day. 14% trying to rationalize voting for Trump? If you really believe that then you’re saying he actually has a chance to win Illinois….. great comedy, thank you


  15. - PublicServant - Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 7:44 am:

    ===You’d think by reading analysis online that everybody hates both candidates.===

    You do get that impression from the “news”, which is why news is becoming more entertainment than news lately.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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