Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » CTBA: Deficit is far higher than both Rauner and COGFA projections
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
CTBA: Deficit is far higher than both Rauner and COGFA projections

Friday, Sep 30, 2016

* From the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability’s budget director Bobby Otter on the two competing deficit projections

The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) - the Illinois General Assembly’s independent budget analysts, projected that total state spending for the current fiscal year (FY2017) which began on July 1, will ultimately be $39.5 billion, but that revenue would only come in at $31.8 billion, leaving nearly a $7.8 billion deficit. On Wednesday, Rauner’s administration disagreed maintaining the budget deficit would be $5.4 billion. Budget Director Tim Nuding said the commission didn’t factor in several key sources of revenue, including the full amount of federal reimbursements to the state for Medicaid anticipated for FY2017.

What’s really troubling is that both of these projections of the General Fund deficit only compare anticipated, year-in, FY2017 spending to FY2017 revenues. Neither are factoring the accumulated deficit left over at the end of FY2016-and thus both COGFA and the Governor’s Budget Office understate the true General Fund deficit in Illinois. (The “General Fund” is the part of the state budget that pays for the services that affect most people-education, healthcare, public safety, and human services.)

HERE’S WHY.

At the end of FY2015, the state’s General Fund deficit was $5.97 billion. CTBA’s analysis shows that the accumulated deficit grew by some $3.13 billion over the course of FY2016, to a total of $9.1 billion.

In other words, Illinois began FY2017 with $9.1 billion in unpaid bills. That means that even if we balanced this year’s revenue with this year’s expenses, we’d still have a $9.1 billion deficit.

Of course, that means both deficit projections quoted in the Sun-Times article understate the true accumulated deficit by that $9.1 billion carry forward. After this carry forward deficit is included, the projected FY2017 General Fund deficit balloons to either $14.5 billion using the Governor’s estimates, or $16.9 billion using COGFA’s.

Another way to look at the General Fund deficit is as a percentage of General Fund service appropriations. CTBA analysis projects the state to spend $24.69 billion on General Fund services in FY2017. Using the Governor’s projected FY2017 deficit figures, 58.7 percent of all General Fund service appropriations aren’t paid for by FY2017 revenues. Since COGFA projects the FY2017 deficit to be even greater, using its numbers, that figure is 68.4 percent.

What does this all mean? The state’s financial condition continues to deteriorate due to a lack of revenue. Whether the General Fund deficit is $14.5 billion or $16.9 billion, it’s definitely unstainable. Between 59 percent and 68 percent of FY2017 spending is deficit spending. And Illinois will continue on this deficit spending path until it increases revenue. But in order to do that, the state needs to fix its flawed tax policy in order to generate additional revenue (see “It Is All About Revenue: A Common Sense Solution for Illinois’ Fiscal Solvency” for CTBA’s suggestions to fix the state’s revenue problems). Until then, the trend of growth in the accumulated deficit is likely to occur past FY2017.

* The accompanying chart…

- Posted by Rich Miller        

15 Comments
  1. - Spiritualized - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 1:56 pm:

    What will this look like come the end of Rauner’s first term, when only stopgap budgets are likely to be passed?


  2. - Honeybear - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:04 pm:

    Broadside on to the wave.


  3. - walker - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:05 pm:

    Numbers are accurate as usual for CBTA, but it depends on what questions we are trying to answer. CBTA just added a third factor, carry over, to complete either picture as to an end point status.

    I wish CBTA had answered the question: Which of the two numbers originally provided by COGFA and GOMB were a better reflection of the 2017 Projected deficit? and Why?


  4. - Honeybear - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:06 pm:

    They are also assuming that Revenue will come in like they expect it to. What if our continued deterioration causes revenue to not come in like we thought? I would think all the contracts that haven’t been paid would have an effect on our revenue. Our state owes businesses billions. Doesn’t some of that come back into the coffers in the form of revenue?


  5. - Linus - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:11 pm:

    People, please: Term limits will fix this.


  6. - RNUG - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:14 pm:

    == Term limits will fix this ==

    No. Honestly matching revenue to expenses will fix it.


  7. - Angry Chicagoan - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:17 pm:

    So it quickly gets to the point where the five percent income tax fixing this has left the station. We’re going to need seven or eight percent.


  8. - Big Muddy - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:20 pm:

    =No. Honestly matching revenue to expenses will fix it.=

    No. Honestly matching expenses to revenue will fix it.


  9. - cdog - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:21 pm:

    The crazy thing about this truth, is Rauner is still thinking his TA 1.4% ROI is relevant and a rational path to address either total.

    Cut this guy off. Take the keys.


  10. - Linus - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:29 pm:

    (Apparently, we still have to clearly label our snark as “snark.”)


  11. - Hit or Miss - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:32 pm:

    “People, please: Term limits will fix this.

    The fix to the problem is: 1) a substantial cut in spending, or 2) a substantial increase in tax revenue, or 3) both #1 and #2 at the same time.


  12. - Huh? - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:42 pm:

    No. No. Passing the turn around agenda will fix this. Our brilliant businessman governor who knows what is best for us told us this was true. /s


  13. - Keyrock - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 2:43 pm:

    Linus - I saw your blanket snapping when you posted. ;-)


  14. - Leaving Eventually - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 3:23 pm:

    Every budget looks more and more grim. I, for one, am starting my 3 year plan to leave Illinois. It’s frustrating, because I’ve spent the last 12 years here. In that time, I’ve seen the economy crash and slightly rebound. And by the end of 2019, I’ll have moved to another state that can get its financial house in order.


  15. - Linus - Friday, Sep 30, 16 @ 4:13 pm:

    Keyrock, your handle should be “YouRock”


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* It's all one, big thing
* It's just a bill
* Stay classy, Daniel
* *** UPDATED x6 - Schneider, Ives, Rauner campaign, Durkin call on Minor to withdraw *** GOP township chairman alleged to have directed racist, homophobic remarks at black female GOP candidate
* National "Our Revolution" endorses Biss
* "Wauconda forever!"
* Maybe he's not so holy
* Pritzker and Biss spar over pension issue again
* Kennedy takes heat for dissing Cairo schools
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Biss' poll has him tied for second and 8 points back
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Biss blasts Pritzker over Madigan issue
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* State senator calls into question Madigan's dua.....
* Speak Out - Chicago Tribune..
* Gov. Rauner drinks chocolate milk to demonstrat.....
* It's all one, big thing - The Capitol Fax Blog .....
* Elk Grove Township Republicans Back Ives, Corri.....
* Illinois GOP contender called AG candidate raci.....
* House resolution aims to stop pension shift - W.....
* Babcock calls for resignations of Bristow, Madi.....


* Woman, 2 men dead in Illinois had been reported missing
* Illinois lawmakers revisit gun legislation
* Shelters open amid Midwest flooding as rivers keep rising
* Illinois lawmakers revisit gun legislation
* Man accused of plotting attack hammer attack of parents
* Chicago-area man convicted in sweeping sex trafficking case
* Springfield High School plans extra security, bag searches
* More rains forecast for Illinois as flooding continues
* Food truck owner fighting Chicago rules headed to high court
* Illinois executive inspector general to leave post in March

* Recreational marijuana ballot question clears committee
* Rauner 're-evaluating' whether to move veterans out of Quincy home
* Illinois Democrats move toward licensing gun stores
* Biss, Pritzker clash at Springfield debate
* Watch replay: Democratic governor candidate debate
* Watch live at 7 p.m.: Democratic governor candidate debate
* Chris Kennedy skipping debate due to back injury
* Illinois megadonor jumps into Missouri right-to-work fight
* Legionella found in state comptroller's Springfield office
* SIU Carbondale chancellor faces questions for hiring family and qualms about his leadership

* What's on TV at your favorite bar? You!
* This restaurant's credo: 'Time is money'
* Modern Luxury taps Uslan to lead all of its Chicago magazines
* Sinclair would sell stations in Chicago, New York to meet limits
* Mueller investigation turns to Chicago banker, Manafort: report


* FBI says it’s trying to rebuild trust after botched tip
* Watch Leslie Jones’ profane commentary of US women’s ice hockey winning gold
* Watch Team USA celebrate winning gold in women’s ice hockey over Canada
* Your Turn: DePaul coach Leitao, AD Ponsetto taking unprecedented heat from fans
* Google hopes AI can predict heart disease by looking at retinas
* 11-year-old boy missing from Austin
* The numbers don’t add up when it comes to arming teachers
* Chicagoans to Wisconsin: Thanks but no thanks — we’ll take the train
* White Sox Kopech’s changeup a work in progress
* The Mix — Some cool things to do Feb. 23-March 1, 2018


* After silence on Parkland, NRA pushes back against law enforcement, media, gun-control advocates
* Gov. Rauner drinks chocolate milk to demonstrate his commitment to diversity
* West Virginia teachers strike in push for better wages, closing all public schools
* Robin Lopez expected to sit tonight for the 1st time this season
* Judge: Second patient can join lawsuit over Delnor hostage standoff
* New Chicago radio station mining gold from rap classics
* You want 'this time' to be different? The kids can't do it alone.
* U.S. win over Canada for hockey gold is the stuff of dreams — and naps
* Lindsey Vonn scatters grandfather's ashes near downhill course
* Emotional support dog bites child on Southwest flight, forcing airline to reexamine policies


» Early Voting Gets Late Start In Some IL Districts
» Illinois’ Storied History of Choosing Its Second-in-Command
» Speaker Madigan Among Lead Topics At Democratic Gubernatorial Debate
» The Primary Race That’s Almost Guaranteed To Hit Your Bottom Line
» More Gun Legislation Filed At Illinois State Capitol
» Lawmaker Rips Rauner On Legionnaires' Response At Vets' Home
» Illinois Lawmaker Looks To Ban AR-15, 'Ghost Guns'
» After Husband's DUI, Supreme Court OKs Seizure Of Wife's Harley
» Setting the Record Not-So-Straight: Rights Group Pushes Inclusive History in IL Classrooms
» Mourners: Slain Chicago Officer Was 'One Of The Good Guys'


* Recreational marijuana ballot question clears committee
* Rauner 're-evaluating' whether to move veterans out of Quincy home
* Illinois Democrats move toward licensing gun stores
* Biss, Pritzker clash at Springfield debate
* Watch replay: Democratic governor candidate debate
* Bernard Schoenburg: Gov. Rauner accused of politicizing Janus union dues case
* Our View: Budget doesn’t mean Springfield officials are done
* Watch live at 7 p.m.: Democratic governor candidate debate
* Chris Kennedy skipping debate due to back injury
* Illinois megadonor jumps into Missouri right-to-work fight


* Habitat names new executive director
* Col. Maher assumes command of 375th AMW
* Comm partners with aeromedical teams to save lives
* Maj. Gen. Farmen returns to lead SDDC
* Vet clinic helps make happy, healthy pets
* MILITARY SAVES WEEK: Preparing Airmen, families for financial success
* A fond farewell to Chief Frey
* SHOWCASE AIRMAN: Maj. Michael Silverman
* Women & PTSD—an ever concerning issue
* UPDATE: pair of flood warnings remain


* Charges filed in fatal November Naperville crash
* Mayor: Driver crashed car into hospital, set himself on fire
* US stocks on pace to snap two-day losing streak
* Dutch lawmakers label massacre of Armenians as genocide
* Rays deal Dickerson to Pirates for Hudson and minor leaguer

* Iranian refugees, denied entry to US, coul...
* Before the State of the Union, a chance to...
* Trump administration denies entry to Irani...
* Democrat Schneider, Republican Hultgren si...
* This RSS feed URL is deprecated
* River Town Chronicles: Randy Hultgren is T...
* Duckworth taps downstate principal as Stat...
* A New Congressional Caucus Backs Planetary...
* House passes bill boosting funding to Illi...
* Reps Question DHS's Decision to Deny Asylu...

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Sen. Dick Durbin banned from communion 'un......
* Durbin: Congress Has To Take On The Gun Lo......

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Why more women are having babies at 50 and......

* Attorney and former Playboy model Corri Fetman calls out ‘body-shaming’ attack ad in judicial campaign
* Project Onward artists pay tribute to their African-American predecessors
* Birther controversy in 2nd Subcircuit?
* The [Thursday] Papers
* TBS greenlights Lena Waithe comedy about ‘queer black girl’
* Web series Super Narcoleptic Girl introduces a superhero who fights off crime and sleep
* Lantern Bearers Needed For Argyle Lunar Parade
* Meeting On Re-Opening Carol's Pub, March 1
* The week that was.
* Friday’s Hitting Left.


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* App Store Pages Now Able to Feature Up to 10 Screenshots
* Google says more than 40 carriers and device manufacturers now use its platform for RCS, the next generation of SMS
* Airbnb is rolling out a new tier aimed at higher-end travelers
* Qualcomm rejects yet another Broadcom offer, leaving little room for negotiation
* Snapchat doubles down on their new design, regardless of how much you hate it
* [TA Deals] Name your price and learn Python with this coding bundle
* Xiaomi Mi Max 3 gains 5,500mAh battery, wireless charging and SD660 confirmation

* CF and relief pitching focus of camp battles
* In the year 2020 ...
* White Sox want Rodon healthy for long haul
* Santiago made his own uniform for Photo Day
* The Game I’ll Never Forget: Chet Lemon
* New South Side Sox Instagram Account: @southsidesoxsbn
* If you’re a writer, and you see good writing, sometimes, or mostly,...


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller