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More fallout from “documentary”

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune columnist John Kass fesses up to willfully participating in the Illinois Policy Institute’s upcoming “documentary” on Speaker Madigan and offers an apology to his readers and his paper

But it was bad judgment for me to participate in the documentary, since it was backed by the Illinois Policy Institute, a group that supports Gov. Bruce Rauner in his political fight with Madigan. I have no complaints with the institute, and understood from the start that the group was behind the documentary. But I should have declined the group’s request, since the Tribune is an independent newspaper, and my participation is inconsistent with that mission. For this I apologize to my readers and to my newspaper.

  70 Comments      


Chicago Bears open thread

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My Twitter feed exploded in anger last night and is continuing to rage today. And for once the extreme passion isn’t about the presidential race…


As a White Sox fan, I had desperately glommed onto a thin ray of hope that football would distract me from October. No such luck.

* I have a routine doctor’s checkup this afternoon, so don’t go too nutso in comments, please. Thanks.

  58 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Governor Bruce Rauner today signed Executive Order 2016-10 to create the new Illinois Bicentennial Commission and the Governor’s Office of the Illinois Bicentennial to lead the planning for the celebration of the state’s 200th anniversary.

“The Illinois Bicentennial is an incredible opportunity to celebrate Illinois’ contributions to the country and the world and plan for our next 200 years of innovation and achievements,” said Governor Rauner. “I look forward to the commission’s recommendations on how best to move forward to ensure that this will be a celebration to remember.”

Executive Order 2016-10 creates the Governor’s Office of the Illinois Bicentennial. The Bicentennial Office, with administrative support from the Governor’s Office and other state agencies, will develop the strategic vision for the bicentennial celebration and work with the public and private sectors to implement that vision.

The EO also rescinds Executive Order 2014-07, dissolving the 77-member State Bicentennial Commission. In its place the EO establishes a reconstituted commission of no more than 51 members to be called the Illinois Bicentennial Commission, which will be housed within the new Bicentennial Office. No more than 40 members may be appointed by the Governor and one member each may be appointed by the President of the Senate, the Speaker of the House, the Senate Minority Leader, the House Minority Leader, the Attorney General, the Lieutenant Governor, the Treasurer, the Comptroller, the Secretary of State, and the Mayors of Chicago and Springfield.

The Governor today also announced the hiring of Stuart Layne to serve as the Illinois Bicentennial Executive Director. Stuart brings decades of experience in strategic marketing and communications, with expertise in research, branding, publicity, events and sponsor partnerships.

* The Question: Your predictions for how this turns out?

  48 Comments      


Elections have consequences

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remember when the CTU president grumbled about Pat Quinn’s running mate?

The Chicago Teachers Union has supported Governor Quinn in the past because of his commitment to grassroots organizing, publicly funded public education, and collective bargaining. For these reasons we are concerned about his choice of Paul Vallas as a running mate. His choice takes us in the wrong direction for public education in Chicago and Illinois.

* The union ended up endorsing Quinn, but people weren’t happy

In perhaps the most lively debate in the Chicago Teachers Union in quite some time, the delegates voted overwhelmingly to endorse Dem. Gov. Pat Quinn on Wednesday at the House of Delegates first meeting of the new school year.

This strong endorsement came despite impassioned speeches to not endorse Quinn, including several members from the CTU caucus party CORE.

“You know what will happen to someone who will lick their boots,” asked delegate and CORE activist Michelle Gunderson, “they will treat you like a dog.”

But despite the pleas to not endorse a candidate who has burned the CTU, including naming anti-union extraordinaire Paul Vallas as his running mate, and just recently signing devastating pension legislation for municipal workers (look out CTU members - You’re next!), the fear of republican candidate Bruce Rauner was just too much for a house that listens carefully to what its headmistress has to say.

* Keep that in mind

The Chicago Teachers Union claims the Illinois Educational Labor Relations Board was further compromised Friday when Gov. Bruce Rauner appointed a former attorney for Chicago Public Schools.

With Lara Shayne’s appointment, three of the five members have been appointed by Rauner, who is known for his anti-union views and dislike of the Chicago Teachers Union. […]

But CTU leaders have complained recently that the board is skewed against them. CTU Vice President Jesse Sharkey said the more Rauner appointments to the board, the less legitimate it is becoming.

“These appointments undermine the board,” he said.

Yeah, well, he won, didn’t he?

  35 Comments      


The fun starts at noon

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As we’ve already discussed, Gov. Bruce Rauner is doing a live Facebook question and answer thingy today at noon. Click here to watch and participate. You can also click here to see some questions already posted on Twitter. Some aren’t exactly polite, so beware.

If you do participate, let us know how it goes in comments. Thanks.

…Adding… Let’s add a ScribbleLive app

  54 Comments      


Today’s graph

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Bloomberg

A very well-written story goes along with it, so go read the whole thing.

  22 Comments      


The artful dodger strikes again

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From yesterday

Reporter A: As the head of the Republican Party, are you yet able to say for whom you are going to vote for—for President. We heard you said you were voting for Trump in a crowd. Why won’t you say as the leader of the Party.

Gov. Rauner: I am not going to comment on the Presidential race. I am very focused on-

Monique Garcia [Chicago Tribune]: Was that report inaccurate?

Gov. Rauner: I am very focused on Illinois, as you guys know.

Reporter A: Is that a cop out? As the Leader?

Gov. Rauner: We need big reform in the State of Illinois. We need to grow more jobs. We need to protect our taxpayers. And we especially need to reform our political system, through term limits and Fair Maps. That’s where I am focused.

  41 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Duckworth chances rated at 80.9 percent *** Poll: Duckworth up by 5, and three quarters say Illinois is on wrong track

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release

In the high-profile contest for the U.S. Senate in Illinois, the new Loras College Poll finds Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth with a five-point edge over incumbent Republican Sen. Mark Kirk. The live-caller statewide survey of a random sample of 600 likely voters was conducted Sept. 13-16.

* The numbers

Tammy Duckworth 41 percent
Mark Kirk 36 percent
Unsure 22 percent

For whatever reason, they didn’t include the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. Not wise.

* And

Net Favorability

The new Loras Poll of Illinois asked likely voters whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates for U.S. Senate. The results below indicate the net favorability of the candidates (percentage favorable opinion minus percentage unfavorable opinion). Positive numbers indicate a net favorable view, whereas negative numbers would indicate a net unfavorable opinion.

    Tammy Duckworth +12
    Mark Kirk +4

In addition, 31 percent of likely voters indicated they had no opinion of Kirk, and 22 percent held no opinion of Duckworth.

“The numbers of undecided and those who have yet to form an opinion of Kirk, coupled with his net favorable rating, mean this race is not over. Add in the general volatility of this year’s campaign season, and the next several weeks could be interesting in Illinois,” Budzisz said. “That said, Duckworth holds some real advantages—including that this is a presidential election year and that tends to help Democrats in a state such as Illinois.”

How a guy can go through a high-profile Senate race and then spend almost six years in office and 31 percent still have no opinion of him is more than a bit troubling for Kirk.

* Kirk does seem to be doing better than expected in Chicago, which may be why Duckworth hit the race button yesterday

Kirk appears to have more crossover appeal than Duckworth, as 22 percent of self-identified Democrats indicate they intend to vote for the Republican Kirk, compared to 13 percent of Republicans supporting Duckworth.

Turning to those who view themselves as political independents, Duckworth has the edge over the incumbent. Duckworth receives support from 41 percent of independents compared to Kirk’s 29 percent.

Not surprising given the partisan divide on these issues, those who approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance and/or believe the country is on the right track are more likely to support Duckworth than Kirk.

20 percent of Trump supporters are undecided when it comes to the choice between Kirk and Duckworth, compared to only 12 percent of Clinton supporters who remain undecided on the Senate race.

Turning to support within regions of the state, Duckworth has a clear advantage in the City of Chicago (54 percent to 21 percent), while Kirk leads Duckworth Downstate (41 percent to 32 percent), and in the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area the two split support nearly evenly, 41 percent Duckworth to 39 percent Kirk.

He’s been attacking Trump, so no surprise there.

* Now, check this out

Direction of Illinois

    Right Track 14 percent
    Wrong Direction 75 percent
    Unsure 11 percent

Not a good year to be an Illinois incumbent (although it rarely has been for quite a while).

Crosstabs are here.

*** UPDATE ***  FYI, FiveThirtyEight gives Duckworth an 80.9 percent chance of winning.

  19 Comments      


When the majority starts to become a minority

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

The majority of Illinois children will be of a minority or mixed race by 2020, according to projections recently released by demographers at two public policy institutions.

It’s a forecast that signals a more racially diverse America in the coming decades, as the country is expected to become minority-majority around 2043. By the early 2030s, 18- to 44-year-olds become minority-majority, and adults 45 and older reach the shift in the late 2050s, according to projections by the Brookings Institution and the Center for American Progress based on U.S. census data.

Children, however, will reach the milestone far sooner, and Illinois is among the first 18 states expected to cross the bar in 2020. […]

In Illinois, the children of first and second generations of Mexican immigrants who moved to the state throughout the 1990s are bolstering the Hispanic population, as Hispanic children are expected to make up 25 percent of the state’s child population by 2020, projections show. That same year, just under 50 percent of Illinois children will be white, about 16 percent of children will be black and about 9 percent of children will be Asian, multiracial or of another race. By 2060, the number of white children in Illinois will slip to about 35 percent, projections show, while the number of Hispanic children will rise to 36 percent. Black children will be at about 15 percent and Asian, multiracial and other nonwhite children at about 15 percent.

* The accompanying chart

Go read the whole thing.

* This is not particularly new, by the way. From a 1996 study

At mid-decade, the population of Illinois is just under 12 million. At the 1990 census, 11,430,602 Illinoisans were enumerated, including 952,272 foreign-born residents. From 1990 through 1994, about 250,000 legal immigrants settled in Illinois In addition, the number of illegal residents in Illinois is estimated at between 215,000 and 355,000. Thus, immigration is a major contributor to population growth in the state, and illegal immigrants may comprise as much as 30 percent of the state’s foreign-born population, most of which resides in the Chicago area.

More people leave Illinois and move to other states than enter from other states. Between 1985 and 1990, while 667,778 people moved to Illinois from another state, just under one million moved from Illinois to another state. Over the same period, almost 200,000 people moved into Illinois from abroad. Thus, the population challenge facing Illinois is not growth; it is composition. For example, according to studies by demographer William Frey of the University of Michigan, between 1985 and 1990, almost three-quarters of the net out-migration of 320,331 were non-Hispanic Whites; of the 195,654 immigrants who came to Illinois, over two-thirds were minorities.

According to the 1990 census, 74.8 percent of Illinoisans were White, 14.6 percent were Black, 8.0 percent were Hispanic and 2.6 percent were Asian or Other (i.e., including Native Americans and Others). Of the 952,272 foreign born residing in Illinois in 1990, Mexico was by far the leading country of birth, accounting for 281,651 people- almost 30 percent of all the foreign born living in Illinois. Other leading sources included Poland (80,594), the Philippines (49,119), India (40,817), Germany (39,920), Italy (33,812) and Korea (30,058).

  29 Comments      


Rauner denies he’s “hurting some class”

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jordan Abudayyeh

The Governor says he hasn’t been talking with democratic leadership about these things, but he’s hopeful the outcome of the election will swing things in his favor.

“Are you going to support the status quo? Or are you going to support reform? We clearly need to go in a different direction. And folks that argue our proposals on reforms are too extreme, or hurting some class, or whatever, that’s just not true. That’s political spin,” said Gov. Bruce Rauner.

I think some “classes” would beg to differ.

  44 Comments      


He gone… for now

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Dan Petrella

Barring future court action, David Gill’s name will not appear on the Nov. 8 ballot as an independent candidate in the 13th Congressional District.

The Illinois State Board of Elections voted unanimously Monday to remove Gill, a Bloomington physician who’s previously run for Congress four times as a Democrat, because he failed to collect the 10,754 signatures he needed on his nominating petitions to earn a spot on the ballot. […]

When the board met Aug. 26 to certify the ballot, it was under an order from U.S. District Judge Sue Myerscough to allow Gill’s name to appear alongside those of incumbent U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville, and Democratic challenger Mark Wicklund of Decatur. […]

But a three-judge panel of the U.S. 7th Circuit Court of Appeals stepped in and blocked Myerscough’s order, pending the outcome of an appeal from the Illinois attorney general’s office.

* Bernie

Ken Menzel, general counsel to the elections board, said Monday the ballot has now been certified without Gill’s name on it, but his name can still be returned if that is ordered by the federal appeals court. […]

Sangamon County Clerk Don Gray said ballots being readied in his county – part of which is included in the 13th – do not have Gill’s name, and the first ballots are to be sent out Saturday to people in the military serving overseas. Early voting in the county begins Sept. 29.

Gray said ballot updates can be made if ordered by a court. He also said there will be a line for write-ins in the 13th on the ballot, so if Gill files as a write-in, there would be a place for voters to cast votes for him.

* From Gill’s attorney Sam Cahnman…

Today’s action by the State Board was expected after a 3-judge panel of the Court of Appeals issued its one sentence order temporarily staying Judge Myerscough’s preliminary injunction pending the outcome of the States appeal. Our focus now is to get Dr. Gill back on the ballot by a) getting the temporary stay lifted; or b) defeating the State’s appeal of Judge Myerscough’s 26-page well reasoned opinion, letting the voters of the 13th Congressional District decide who will represent them in Congress rather than 8 Gubernatorial appointees at the Board of Elections, or 3 Judges in Chicago.

Here’s a candidate who got more than 15 times the signatures the Republican and Democratic candidates had to get. I don’t know what they are afraid of. They are certainly going to great lengths to keep voters of the 13th Congressional District from even getting a chance at voting for this highly qualified candidate.

  19 Comments      


Duckworth lashes out at congressional opponents of immigration reform

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Senate-seeking U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth appeared with fellow Democrats on Monday to advocate for long-sought changes to immigration laws, casting the November election as crucial to the cause while blasting opponents as “bigots and racists and fear-mongerers.” […]

Duckworth asserted that votes had stalled in Congress on legislation to open citizenship opportunities to students and people who serve in the military “because there are bigots and racists and fear-mongerers who don’t understand that they are in fact weakening this great nation when they turn their backs on immigration reform.” […]

While Duckworth did not direct her comments about racism and bigotry at Kirk specifically, she did cast herself and the Democratic ticket generally as the pro-immigrant choice.

“We’re not going to get anywhere with comprehensive immigration reform unless we have Democrats in charge of the Senate, unless we have a Democratic leader of the Senate, because it will never come up for a vote, just like we never got a vote on a next member of the United States Supreme Court,” Duckworth said. “So if you vote for the Republican, then you are voting for Republican control of the Senate, and that means we’ll never get this issue to come up, it will never pass out of the Senate.”

* Meanwhile, Duckworth’s spokesman is wearing criticism from this blog’s commenters as a sort of badge of honor on his Twitter page

Heh.

* Related…

* Funds gush in deep blue Land of Lincoln as Kirk struggles to hold seat

* Illinois Dems Discuss Immigration Reform, NYC Terror Attack

  25 Comments      


Dated, online poll has Rauner’s numbers in the tank

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Zoe Galland for Crain’s

Gov. Bruce Rauner’s approval rating comes in at 33 percent in a new poll.

MorningConsult, a media and polling firm, finds that the governor’s disapproval rating is at 56 percent. Governors who are more unpopular include New Jersey’s Chris Christie, Michigan’s Rick Snyder and, at No. 1, Kansas’ Sam Brownback.

Where would Rauner’s numbers be if he actually got his agenda through?

I about spit out my coffee when I read that line.

According to the poll, Rauner is just slightly more popular than Maine’s bizarre governor Paul LePage.

Whew.

* However, take these numbers with a gigantic grain of salt

Morning Consult surveyed 71,900 registered voters in all 50 states from early May 2016 through early September 2016. Survey respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of their governor’s job performance.

Ancient numbers and an online poll.

  26 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Today’s quotable

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Offered without comment…


  23 Comments      


ILGOP: “Madigan is as corrupt as they come”

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From an ILGOP fundraising e-mail entitled “Corrupt money”…

Friend,

Speaker Mike Madigan just gave $500,000 directly to the Democratic Party of Illinois. We have to respond now before it’s too late.

Madigan is as corrupt as they come.

He’ll spend that money to help elect Hillary Clinton, who hid classified emails on her private server.

He’ll spend that money to help elect Tammy Duckworth, who fired whistleblowers for exposing abuse of veterans.

He’ll spend that money to help elect Susana Mendoza so her office can hire more of his patronage goons.

And he’ll spend that money to push back on Governor Rauner and raise your taxes.

Please help before its too late.

Tim

The money came from Madigan’s personal campaign committee.

  39 Comments      


Rauner fights expanding statewide “special master” to monitor hiring

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* So, when Gov. Rauner announced today that he had abolished the staff assistant position at the Illinois Department of Transportation when it was actually abolished in April via an agreement with the Teamsters, was he trying to tamp down coverage of this?

Gov. Bruce Rauner pledged Monday to continue rooting out improper patronage hiring at the same time his lawyers were attempting to block a federal court monitor’s expanded review of all state administration jobs. […]

Yet, Rauner says a review of all state positions by a special master — appointed in 2014 to investigate the scandal, in which the staff assistant posts were improperly handed out as political favors — is premature, too costly and duplicative of the work it wants the Office of the Executive Inspector General to do. […]

In a motion filed in U.S. District Court in Chicago, Rauner’s administration argues that the state has already paid $800,000 to the special master; expanding her workload would come at a much steeper cost. It also outlines a newly created Hiring and Employment Monitoring unit under the executive inspector general. […]

The Rauner administration countered Monday that a statewide special master expansion is premature, would unnecessarily complicate the government’s attempts to reform hiring, would cost the cash-strapped state too much and duplicate the work of the newly established Hiring and Employment Monitoring unit.

Kudos to the AP.

  30 Comments      


Poll: Clinton up by 13

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release

In its new survey of Illinois, the Loras College Poll finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a lead over Republican Donald Trump. The live-caller statewide survey of a random sample of 600 likely voters was conducted Sept. 13-16. […]

    Hillary Clinton 43 percent
    Donald Trump 30 percent
    Gary Johnson 8 percent
    Jill Stein 3 percent

    Unsure 14 percent

* More

Clinton and Trump both continue to struggle with the public’s perception of them. Even in the state she used to call home, 50 percent of likely Illinois voters view Clinton unfavorably, while 67 percent view Donald Trump negatively. […]

    Candidate Net Favorability
    Hillary Clinton -8
    Donald Trump

About even numbers of Trump supporters indicate they intend to vote for the real estate mogul more out of opposition to Clinton (46 percent) than in support of Trump (44 percent). For Clinton, a majority (54 percent) indicated that their choice of Clinton was due more to support of her than opposition to Trump.

Nothing unifies quite like an opponent can, and that’s particularly true of Trump supporters right now.

* Back to the poll

In terms of race, Trump’s support among Hispanic and African-American voters is very small, with only 10 percent of Hispanic voters surveyed intending to vote for the real estate mogul. Only 4 percent of African-Americans surveyed indicated they intend to vote for Trump. […]

Geography is also an important element in understanding Illinois politics, with the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and City of Chicago holding substantial importance politically and economically. Downstate Illinois comprises the third geographic unit of analysis. Geographic differences in voter preference are revealed in this Loras Poll, as Clinton’s margin is strongest in the City of Chicago (64 percent Clinton to 12 percent Trump), while within the Chicago MSA the race is more competitive (42 percent for Clinton and 31 percent for Trump). There is one geographic region in which Trump holds the advantage over Clinton. In downstate Illinois Trump leads over Clinton 40 percent to 31 percent.

President Obama’s job approval rating is 55 percent, compared to 40 percent who disapprove.

* Other stuff

53 percent of likely voters expect that Hillary Clinton will be elected in November, while 26 percent expect the winner to be Donald Trump.

35 percent of likely voters believe the country is on the right track, with 51 percent indicating the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Looking at the impact of partisanship on perception of the direction of the country, Democrats are more positive than Republicans—52 percent of Democrats believe the country is on the right track compared to just 11 percent of Republicans. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 33 percent of Democrats.

Only 24 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of both Clinton and Trump.

That last line is interesting. You’d think by reading analysis online that everybody hates both candidates.

Methodology is here. Crosstabs are here.

Their US Senate poll results will be released tomorrow.

  15 Comments      


Caption contest!

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Heh…


  47 Comments      


Find another way

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* California appears to have done it, so why not Illinois?

California employers quieted any lingering doubts about the state’s economy in August, as an uptick in hiring helped absorb hordes of new job-seekers.

The state added a net 63,100 jobs last month and the unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, according to data released by the Employment Development Department on Friday.

Across the nation in August, employers added a net total of 151,000 new positions, meaning that California accounted for 42% of all U.S. job growth last month. […]

Since last August, the state has boosted payrolls by 378,000 workers — a 2.3% gain. Despite new paid-leave mandates, a rising minimum wage and strict environmental regulations, California has managed to grow faster than the rest of the country for several months.

  20 Comments      


Khouri zooms into the lead… on improper property tax exemptions

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Daily Herald has been looking into these sorts of stories for a while now, but they hit the mother lode on a candidate without much hope of winning

A DuPage County Board member making a bid for Congress improperly claimed a number of homeowner exemptions on properties her family is renting out, a Daily Herald investigation has found.

Republican Tonia Khouri of Aurora, who is running against Naperville Democrat Bill Foster in the 11th Congressional District this fall, listed rental properties in Aurora as supplementary sources of income on the financial disclosure report filed in mid-May with the clerk of the House of Representatives. […]

But the Kane County and Aurora Township assessors offices, where the rental properties lie, confirmed the Khouris also received primary homeowners exemptions on homes on High Street from 2012 through 2015, on North Ohio Street in 2013, 2014 and 2015, and on Elliott Street in 2014 and 2015, all homes which are being rented out by the Khouris. Together, the Khouris have received more than $6,000 in exemptions for the properties, records show. […]

Khouri is not the first candidate to be found to be taking extra exemptions. The Daily Herald reported in 2013 that Gov. Bruce Rauner claimed $1,616 in extra homeowner exemptions on a Winnetka home, a Chicago penthouse and a condo, and that Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth was claiming two exemptions on homes in DeKalb and Hoffman Estates at the same time for a total of $1,928 in extra exemptions. Last fall, the Daily Herald also reported that Arlington Heights Trustee John Scaletta had claimed an extra $4,200 exemption on a second property.

* Meanwhile, in other congressional campaign news…


  13 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If you click below and go to about the 8:30 mark [fixed link], you’ll hear Gov. Rauner yet again refuse to answer a question today about who how he’ll be voting for president…

You’ll recall this statement from earlier this year

“Now is the time to come together, now is the time to unite, up and down the ticket,” Rauner told the convention. “What we can’t do is let Hillary Clinton get in the White House. No way Hillary Clinton is getting elected.”

And this

Rauner repeatedly had sought to stay out of the presidential race, though he did say that as leader of the GOP in Illinois, he would back the eventual nominee. But Rauner aides stressed there are various levels of “support”

* The Question: Why do you think that Rauner is refusing to respond to this question?

  32 Comments      


Another goofy idea

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I don’t really think that driverless cars are going to be a real issue for quite a long time. If you look carefully at the breathless write-ups about Uber’s splashy “no-driver” car rollout in Pittsburgh, you’ll see that the cars do, indeed, have drivers who had to take control at various points in the demonstrations and the drivers require special two-week training classes before they get behind the wheel.

My main concern is that policymakers shouldn’t succumb to Uber and the other big players’ expected attempts to get the government to somehow subsidize this stuff or set aside big chunks of city streets for the ice cream of the future cars.

But this is a bit much

Hours after Uber launched driverless cars in Pittsburgh, aldermen proposed an ordinance to ban driverless cars in Chicago.

Aldermen Ed Burke and Anthony Beale proposed the ordinance Wednesday in a City Council meeting, calling it a “preemptive strike” after Uber’s announcement it was beginning a pilot of self-driving cars.

“We do not want the streets of Chicago to be used as an experiment that will no doubt come with its share of risks, especially for pedestrians,” Burke said in an emailed press release from the city’s Committee on Finance. “No technology is one-hundred percent safe.”

Sigh.

They’re not even here yet. They’re not even driverless yet. Take a breath already.

* For whatever reason, Ald. Burke decided to appear on Dan Proft’s radio show. You should really give this a listen. Burke is raked over the coals about his proposed ban and the city’s less than stellar governance. I don’t think he realized what he had gotten himself into

  17 Comments      


Teamsters agreed to abolish controversial IDOT position

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a press release…

Rauner Administration Abolishes Position in IDOT Patronage Hiring Scandal

Illegal hires off state payroll

The Rauner Administration announced today it has abolished the staff assistant position at the Illinois Department of Transportation. The position was central to the IDOT patronage hiring scandal that began under previous administrations.

“Every day we are working to restore the people’s faith and confidence in government,” Governor Rauner said. “Ending this illegal patronage hiring and abolishing the staff assistant position is another step in regaining the trust of Illinois taxpayers. Government should work for the people and not the government insiders.”

On September 1, the Administration announced the remaining staff assistants at IDOT had received layoff notices. Their last day with the agency was Thursday, September 15; they are no longer on state payroll.

The staff assistant position came under scrutiny in 2014. An Executive Inspector General Report found the previous administrations had illegally hired employees into the staff assistant position at IDOT. These employees would then transfer into protected government positions or perform job duties that had little or no relation to their actual job description. The previous administration tried to layoff these employees, but the union representing the employees sued to stop those proceedings. The Rauner Administration reached an agreement with the union to finalize the layoffs of the illegal patronage hires.

Since taking office, Governor Rauner has taken a number of actions to increase transparency in hiring. He signed an Executive Order to publish Rutan-exempt employees on the Illinois Transparency and Accountability Portal website in a direct response to the IDOT hiring scandal. In addition, he signed an Executive Order that removed the requirement that the Governor’s Office review and approve the hiring and promotion decisions of Rutan-covered positions. This Executive Order removed a level of bureaucracy in hiring civil-service positions and further protected the process from unlawful political influence.

* Notice this buried passage from the release…

The Rauner Administration reached an agreement with the union to finalize the layoffs of the illegal patronage hires

* From Tina Sfondeles’ story a couple weeks ago about the 29 IDOT staff assistant layoffs

The last day for the staff assistants will be Sept. 15. Rauner’s administration said the group was laid off on Thursday after the state reached a settlement with the union representing the workers, Teamsters Local 916.

Part of the settlement included abolishing the position of “staff assistant” within IDOT.

That settlement is here. It’s dated April 8th and lays out a complicated process to move staff assistants to other jobs. 32 people remained on IDOT’s payroll as staff assistants at that time, down from 55 in 2014. And the folks who were laid off this month are now on a recall list for three years. If anyone is hired back for a position at a lower classification, they’re guaranteed at least 96 percent of their former salary.

Sounds like a reasonable compromise.

  20 Comments      


Today’s number: $45,500

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Hinz

Each Illinois taxpayer is on the hook for $45,500 in unfunded liabilities—more than most residents earn after taxes in an entire year.

That’s the bottom line of yet another report that whacks Illinois’ pension-impacted finances but presents the numbers in a way the average taxpayer may more easily grasp.

Today’s report from a division of Truth in Accounting—a Chicago-based, bipartisan think tank whose board includes DePaul University researcher Bill Obershain, Democratic strategist Rick Jasculca, conservative activist Dan Proft and financial analyst Terry Savage—categorizes the Land of Lincoln as a “sinkhole state” and finds it in the third-worst shape of any of the 50 states.

The group came up with its figures by dividing total net state debt (liabilities minus available assets) by 4.1 million, the combined number of individual and company tax returns filed in 2015. Illinois’ per-taxpayer debt of $45,500 is exceeded only by New Jersey’s $59,400 and Connecticut’s $49,000—and well above that in some surrounding Midwest states such as Ohio at $5,000, Wisconsin at $4,600 and Indiana at $2,400.

The full report is here.

  78 Comments      


Hammond said she “tore up” Rauner check

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Bruce Rauner’s campaign committee reported contributing $8,000 to Rep. Norine Hammond (R-Macomb) on May 5th, 2015, along with several other GOP legislators. Rep. Hammond never reported that contribution, so her Democratic opponent has pounced

“Norine Hammond either broke state campaign finance laws and failed to report a contribution of nearly $10,000 she accepted from Illinois’ most powerful politician, or she’s afraid to let people know about the governor’s very generous contribution just before crucial votes…” Curtis was quoted in the media release.

* But

While Hammond confirmed receipt of such a check from Citizens for Rauner, she told the Voice on Friday that she also destroyed the check. The check was sent soon after the governor was elected and before the General Assembly began its session, she said.

“He sent them out, and I was not comfortable with that from the beginning,” Hammond said. “There’s a perception. I don’t want to be tied to a governor because he gave me $8,000. It didn’t feel right.”

In a written response to Curtis’ claim, Hammond stated, “My opponent may want to get his facts straight. I tore up the check from Governor Rauner when I received it. By law, you do not report a contribution until it is deposited. And moving forward, (Curtis) may want to tighten up his accusations given he’s looking for people to trust him with their representation.” […]

In her written response, Hammond noted she broke with the governor on several issues and helped to drive the rank and file compromise that kept Western Illinois University and the local Meals on Wheels programs going through the budget impasse.

Thoughts?

  42 Comments      


Rooney is a gung-ho team player

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From an interview with Rolling Meadows Mayor Tom Rooney, who will take Sen. Matt Murphy’s spot

Q: How does it feel to be leaving Rolling Meadows and moving on to the state Senate?

A: Of course it’s difficult to leave something I’ve been doing for a long time. I’m certainly still going to keep my eye on everything. I still live in town and I’m not going anywhere. Now I just get to represent the same people on a higher level. Plus, I’ve wanted to be in a House or Senate chamber since I was 17 years old, so this is a special moment.

Q: How will you work with Gov. Bruce Rauner and the gridlock in Springfield?

A: I’m already feeling that the caucus in the Senate is a great big club of people who want to be unified and charge forward. They’re sending that signal from the governor on down, and it’s a neat feeling. It feels like a tremendous honor to get to be a part of the team.

  19 Comments      


Karmeier elected chief justice

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It was his turn, so it’s not unexpected. He’s widely expected to retire after he does his two years as chief. From a press release

The Illinois Supreme Court announced today that Justice Lloyd A. Karmeier will be its next Chief Justice. Justice Karmeier was unanimously elected to the office by his fellow justices and will serve a three-year term commencing October 26, 2016. He succeeds Rita B. Garman, whose tenure as Chief Justice ends October 25, 2016.

An installation ceremony honoring Justice Karmeier’s election as Chief Justice will be held at the Supreme Court Building in Springfield on Monday, October 31. Justice Garman will administer the oath of office.

Justice Karmeier will be this State’s 120th Chief Justice and the second person from Washington County to hold that office. Justice Byron O. House, for whom Justice Karmeier served as a law clerk, was the first.

“I appreciate the confidence shown by the other members of the court in electing me to this position,” said Justice Karmeier. “Since joining the court in 2004, I have had the privilege of serving under five different chief justices, all of whom have done an outstanding job. I will do my very best to live up to the high standard they have set.”

* Coincidentally, this press release also arrived today from Robert Clifford’s law firm…

An Illinois federal judge late Friday (Sept. 16, 2016) granted class certification to plaintiffs representing 4.7 million State Farm policyholders involved in a complex Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (“RICO”) regarding an alleged scheme involving campaign contributions being poured into an Illinois Supreme Court justice’s race to influence the reversal of a $1.05 billion decision. If successful, that could result in a more than $7.6 billion payout from State Farm for the class given the interest that has accrued.

This case alleges violations of the “RICO” against State Farm and related defendants who allegedly “perpetrat[ed] a scheme through an enterprise specifically designed to defraud Plaintiffs and Class out of a $1.05 billion judgment,” according to the complaint. That “scheme” allegedly involved the defendants orchestrating a “dark money” network of campaign contributions to the campaign committee of Justice Lloyd A. Karmeier for the Illinois Supreme Court who would be sympathetic to State Farm’s position in the $1.05 billion class action, and then misleading and lying to the Court about its clandestine and sizeable involvement in contributions to Karmeier’s contested election.

“Dark money” is campaign contributions that are run through political action committees (PACs) so that the actual source of its distribution is muddied. Here, it is alleged that State Farm contributed millions to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that then sent the money back to PACs and the Illinois Republican Party for use in Karmeier’s campaign.

Karmeier’s contested election for an open downstate seat on the Illinois Supreme Court for the November, 2004 election was one of the highest in history for a judicial election and his recruitment for the position involved someone “who would support State Farm once its appeal came before the [Illinois Supreme] Court for disposition,” according to pleadings. The underlying case involves a class action filed in 1997 that led to a $1.05 billion verdict that was upheld by the appellate court. But when it ultimately was decided by the Illinois Supreme Court more than two years following oral arguments before the Court that Karmeier never heard, by then Karmeier had been elected and had taken the bench and decided to participate in the Court’s decision, with Karmeier admitting he cast the deciding vote.

The defendants in the RICO certified class action are State Farm; Edward Murnane, President of the Illinois Civil Justice League (ICJL); and William G. Shepherd, employee/lobbyist of State Farm and ICJL Executive Committee Member. Karmeier’s election committee, now long disbanded, remains associated in the enterprise, according to the pleadings.

Friday’s decision certifying the class brings this case one step closer to a jury trial to determine the damages suffered by the class that consists of 4.7 million State Farm policyholders who made a claim for vehicle repairs pursuant to their policies from 1987-1998. These claims were litigated in the Avery v. State Farm case and involved damages to cars that were repaired with non-factory authorized and/or non-Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) parts when they were led to believe that they were factory authorized, as their policies provided.

The claimed misleading comments and lies by State Farm representatives to the Illinois Supreme Court and the damages they caused are now the subject of the RICO class action after plaintiffs hired a former FBI agent who uncovered the alleged “dark money” ties of State Farm to Karmeier’s campaign in his bid for election to Illinois’ highest court. Plaintiffs allege Karmeier’s participation in that case and his apparent lack of objectivity tainted the tribunal that resulted in the reversal by the Illinois Supreme Court.

Friday’s decision comes on the heels of an earlier decision by U.S. District Court Judge David R. Herndon who held in June that plaintiffs’ experts, including a judicial election expert as well as a forensic accounting expert who valued the case to now be worth $7.6 billion, could testify as expert witnesses during the expected trial of this matter.

“The Illinois Constitution clearly provides that four votes are required to reverse the decision of an appellate court. In the absence of four votes, the Illinois Constitution provides that the decision of the appellate court stands, which in this matter would have resulted in affirming the $1.05 billion verdict,” said Robert A. Clifford, founder and senior partner of Clifford Law Offices in Chicago and co-lead counsel of the class action matter. “The next step is that we will continue our preparations for trial of this matter on behalf of the millions of State Farm policy holders.”

In its 29-page written opinion issued Friday (Sept. 16, 2016), Judge Herndon said that in certifying the class, “the Court agrees with plaintiff that all questions of law and fact are common as to the putative class: did defendants act in concert over a period of time to select and elect Justice Karmeier and to fraudulently conceal the nature and the scope of their involvement to enable and defend his participation in Avery.”

The parties are expected to be before Judge Herndon Oct. 15 in St. Louis for a status on the case.

  11 Comments      


Yes, but…

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Dan Petrella

Illinois has paid more than $631,000 in bonuses over the past two years to dozens of Illinois Lottery employees for meeting sales targets and other goals.

Introducing programs like this, which reward workers financially based on certain measures of job performance, throughout state government has been a priority for Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration in stalled contract talks with a union representing 38,000 state workers. The administration wants to do away with guaranteed annual raises in favor what it calls “merit pay,” but the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 31 has opposed those proposals because, among other reasons, it sees opportunities for favoritism. […]

McDevitt said the program has proved effective at improving performance. For example, the percentage of retailers activating new games within two weeks was 79 percent in September 2012, but it’s now up to about 95 percent, he said. […]

While performance might be easily measurable for some workers, such as “an exceedingly small number of employees” at the Lottery, that’s not the case across the board, [AFSCME spokesman Anders Lindall] said.

“How would one fairly and accurately quantify the performance of a child protection investigator or a nurse assistant in a veterans home or a caregiver for someone with disabilities?” he said. “We’re skeptical that that can be done.”

Lindall is right that it’s fairly easy to quantify a lottery salesperson’s bonuses. That’s a no-brainer (and, frankly, I’m not even sure why the state is handling what should be given to an outside vendor).

And bonuses can be manipulated by the type of boss who wants to reward his or her friends and punish his or her enemies.

* But I could see situations where some of Anders’ own examples, including child protection investigators, could be subject to a bonus system. If, for instance, the state is too slow at initiating investigations, bonuses could be awarded to those who are prompt.

Then again, as we saw with the recent Wells Fargo scandal, if you reward employees based on a specific metric, they could very well do whatever they can to meet that particular goal, even if it doesn’t actually accomplish anything. You have to be careful when setting goals to avoid this sort of outcome.

It’s like teaching to the test. If you base teacher pay/ratings on how much their students’ test scores improve, they’re gonna teach that test as much as they possibly can. Does it really improve the overall education of those kids? Nope. But are other incentives wrong? Nope.

* Semi-related…

* Rauner eliminates IDOT job position tied to patronage hiring: Rauner’s office said early Monday that abolishing the staff assistant positions at the Illinois Department of Transportation was necessary for “regaining the trust of Illinois taxpayers.” On Sept. 1, Rauner issued layoff notices to the remaining 29 staff assistants. Investigations previously found they were hired based on clout instead of merit. Their last day was Thursday.

* Press release: In an announcement today at the 2016 National Association of State Chief Information Officers (NASCIO) Conference in Orlando, Florida, the Center for Digital Government named Illinois as one of the most improved states in the country for technology and innovation. In just 18 months, Illinois has moved from the bottom quarter to the top third of all 50 states.

  32 Comments      


It’s all about loyalty, and it goes both ways

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My Crain’s Chicago Business column

I was duped by a right-wing organization into appearing in what will probably be a propaganda movie. It’s my own fault. The producer claimed that while some people were pointing fingers at House Speaker Michael Madigan, his company was interested in doing a fair and balanced film about “what’s really at the center of it all.”

Two days later, I found out that the forthcoming “documentary” is backed by an arm of the well-funded Illinois Policy Institute, one of Madigan’s fiercest critics and a staunch ally of Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. The institute’s top executive is also a close Rauner adviser. I’m not exactly popular with that group, although I have strongly supported several of its small-business initiatives in Chicago. I’m not expecting to come out of the editing room looking too well.

Such is life.

But just to make sure I get my side in, I thought I’d tell you some of what I told the filmmakers.

We already have a thread about the Illinois Policy Institute’s movie, so go there if you want to discuss that topic today.

* For this post’s purposes, click here to read the rest of my column before commenting, please. Thanks.

  33 Comments      


Spinning like a top

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WMAY

Illinois State Fair officials are trying to put the best spin on this year’s attendance figures.

13-percent fewer people came through the gates this year… but fair officials say revenues overall should remain even, in part because of record Grandstand ticket sales.

* Man, did they ever use lots of spin. Check out this press release

PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE GROSS REVENUE FOR 2016 FAIR WILL SURPASS 2015 REVENUE LEVELS
2016 Fair Breaks Two Grandstand Ticket Records

SPRINGFIELD, IL - Despite triple digit heat indices, power outages, flooding and the cancelation of a concert at the Grandstand, the 2016 Illinois State Fair revenues remained on pace with figures from previous years. In fact, preliminary figures project that gross revenue estimates for the 2016 Illinois State Fair will surpass 2015 revenue levels.

2016 was the highest-grossing Grandstand line-up in State Fair history with tickets sales of $2.08 million. The sales figure eclipsed the previous record of $2.03 million set in 2013. Concerts like Meghan Trainor, Jake Owen, KISS, and Cole Swindell proved to be popular among fairgoers.

“Someone once stated that conducting the Illinois State Fair consisted of 15% planning and 85% weather, and after this year’s fair, I tend to believe it,” said State Fair Manager Kevin Gordon. “This year we battled obstacles at every turn: triple digit heat indices, power outages and seven and three quarter inches (7.75″) of rain. In one evening alone we saw a record 5.59 inches of rain which led to extensive flooding, parking lot closures and event cancellations. Yet, we still had thousands of people leave Springfield with memories and experiences that will last a lifetime.”

The Illinois State Fair continues to provide affordable entertainment and free educational opportunities for Illinoisans. In addition, the fair offers the State of Illinois an opportunity to highlight our state’s number one industry. This year an estimated 357,409 fairgoers attended the Illinois State Fair. While flooding forced the early closure of the fair on the first Friday (August 12), near perfect weather conditions followed for the first weekend (August 13-14). Historically, the first weekend of the fair is the highest attended dates of the Illinois State Fair.

And it goes on and on and on like that until you finally get to the actual attendance figures. But instead of providing a grand total and context from last year, the state fair folks only provided each individual day’s attendance figures for this year.

  23 Comments      


Rauner’s total ILGOP contributions now top $20 million

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Finke

Gov. Bruce Rauner has said several times over the past few weeks that he’s not involved in legislative races. He said it again last week.

“I’m asked that all the time and I do want to emphasize I’m not really involved,” Rauner said after an event in Decatur. “I’m not involved in races per se, predicting races or advising races. I’m not involved in that.”

Yeah, but he’s involved in a way that’s way more important — and probably way more appreciated by the candidates — than giving them advice on how to run their campaigns. That’s giving them money. Big money. You may have heard the reports that the state Republican Party has raised $15 million since March 31, and nearly all of that came from Rauner’s campaign committee, to which he is the biggest contributor. There are similar lopsided contributions to the House Republican Organization.

It’s not illegal. It’s also not uninvolved. Any more than labor unions or business organizations can say they’re uninvolved just because they make campaign contributions.

* The total went up since Doug filed his column…


  28 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Duckworth response: “a lie, pure and simple” *** Duckworth “whistleblowers” appear in TV ad for Kirk

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Republican U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk is launching a new TV ad today featuring the two women who sued his Democratic challenger, Tammy Duckworth, for alleged workplace retaliation during her tenure as head of the state’s Department of Veterans’ Affairs.

A judge in Union County has not acted on the case, in which the attorney general’s office in June said that a $26,000 settlement had been reached with no finding of wrongdoing, only to see the plaintiffs subsequently say later that they didn’t agree to it.

In the new 30-second Kirk attack ad, the two plaintiffs, Christine Butler and Denise Goins, who work at the Anna Veterans’ Home, try to make their case to the public while an announcer accused Duckworth of “covering up the abuse” of veterans.

* The ad

* Script…

Goins: She said to me point blank: keep your mouth shut and you won’t be fired.

Announcer: Veterans abused under Tammy Duckworth’s watch. When whistleblowers came forward, Duckworth fired and threatened them - covering up the abuse.

Butler: Director Tammy Duckworth was trying to protect Governor Blagojevich. I believe she put her ​personal aspirations ahead of the veteran’s care.

Announcer: Duckworth is a war hero. But she’s been a terrible public servant.

Butler: The veteran was not Tammy Duckworth’s top priority.

I’m Mark Kirk and I approve this message.

*** UPDATE ***  Response…

“The story this ad purports to tell is a lie, pure and simple, and Senator Kirk knows it. The lawsuit was called a ‘garden variety workplace case’ by a federal judge, and has been dismissed in whole or in part three times. Indeed, the plaintiffs agreed to settle the case for what the Attorney General called ‘nuisance value,’ before Senator Kirk cynically recruited them to star in a political commercial. Tammy Duckworth, a decorated combat veteran, has spent her entire adult life defending our country and assuring that Veterans are treated with respect. Tammy gets her own health care from the VA, and she makes no apology for fighting to assure that Veterans are given nothing but the highest quality care. Senator Kirk, on the other hand, has lied at least ten times about his own military record. He continues to plumb the depths of campaign vitriol, desperately spinning yarns of his own military glory, while baselessly attacking his opponent’s dedication to our Veterans. Kirk’s claims are pathetic. He should salvage what’s left of his dignity, apologize to Veterans, and pull this shameless ad.” — Matt McGrath, campaign spokesman

Background info is here.

  21 Comments      


In which I agree with the Koch brothers

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

Food-truck operators in Chicago — facing a crackdown by City Hall on a business that’s found big support among the young and hip — are getting backing from groups financed by staunch conservatives including the billionaire industrialist Koch brothers and Gov. Bruce Rauner.

Lawyers from the Institute for Justice, based in Arlington, Va., are pressing a long-running lawsuit to overturn the city’s rules, which bar food trucks from doing business within 200 feet of restaurants.

The Institute for Justice says it got “initial seed funding” from Charles G. Koch of Wichita, Kansas, and recognizes the “generous” financial support of David H. Koch, who lives in New York. The octogenarian brothers control Koch Industries, the country’s second-biggest privately held company, and are among the largest financiers of Republican politicians and right-wing causes nationally.

Another conservative organization, the Illinois Policy Institute, which ramped up its campaign on behalf of Chicago’s food trucks in recent weeks, has received funding from the Charles Koch Institute and Rauner’s family foundation, according to publicly available tax returns those groups have filed with the Internal Revenue Service as not-for-profit organizations.

I’ve written about this before, but let me say it again: The city’s overly complicated food truck regulations are just plain ridiculous.

  23 Comments      


Stantis says he was also duped into appearing in documentary

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bernie wrote about that new Illinois Policy Institute “documentary” about House Speaker Michael Madigan

The [Illinois Policy Institute press release] promises “an impressive lineup of interviews,” and on the list is Rich Miller, publisher of the Capitol Fax newsletter and blog. But Miller says he was never told, when he sat for an interview last week, that Illinois Policy was involved, and he would not have participated had he known.

“I … wouldn’t have consented if the project was backed by the Illinois AFL-CIO, either,” Miller told me. […]

Miller later told me the questions he was asked were fine, but he felt he had been “duped into participating in an Illinois Policy Institute project.”

He added that he has “no idea if the producer and director knew who was funding them. I asked them numerous times on Tuesday who was providing the money, and they kept saying it was Emergent.”

I brought someone with me to the interview, so he can attest to the fact that I repeatedly asked about who was behind the project.

* And a day after I did a post about the flick, Chicago Tribune editorial cartoonist Scott Stantis revealed in an e-mail to me that he was also duped into doing the doc

Hey Rich,

Thanks for posting about the IPI “documentary”. I have the same story. When I asked who was doing the documentary they said they were. That Madigan was an interesting subject unknown to the rest of the country. I didn’t press them. Live and learn, I guess.

-Scott

* Considering my witness and Stantis’ e-mail, perhaps the Illinois Policy Institute’s Diana Rickert might want to reconsider this quote

“Rich’s comments are strange. The film crew is top notch, and was very forthcoming about the scope of the documentary and our involvement when asked who was funding the project. We’ve been critical of Speaker Madigan and his political machine for many years, so we’re certainly not shy about our work on this issue. It’s not like Rich was stopped on the sidewalk in Springfield and caught off-guard with a random guy filming with his iPhone; the interview was scheduled in advance, he signed a release form and he even went out for drinks with the film crew after they were done. Our research was used as the premise of many questions. Some of the other interviews for our documentary were even filmed in our Chicago office.”

I didn’t just go out to drinks with the director and producer, I took them both out to dinner. They seemed like fine sorts and they did ask reasonable questions, and, yes, a couple/three were based on stuff I’ve read at the Illinois Policy Institute’s website.

My beef is with this dishonest secrecy. And the Illinois Policy Institute is compounding their dishonesty by not telling the truth now. Some interview subjects may very well have been told about the group’s participation. I was not, and Stantis says he wasn’t, either.

  24 Comments      


What’s keeping Democrats awake at night?

Monday, Sep 19, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

The Republicans have been saying behind the scenes that they have put four Democratic state Senators “on the bubble”—Tom Cullerton in DuPage County, Melinda Bush in Lake County, Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant in Will County and Gary Forby in deep southern Illinois.

Understandably, Senate President John Cullerton does not agree.

“If it wasn’t for Donald Trump maybe four would be on the bubble,” Cullerton told me the other day.

Cullerton claimed that the one-two punch of Trump and Gov. Bruce Rauner was hurting Republicans in contested districts everywhere. “Downstate, Trump’s popular,” he admitted, “But Rauner’s not.” In Sen. Forby’s heavily targeted district, Cullerton said, “Rauner’s hated down there.”

People in Forby’s district may have voted for Rauner two years ago, but, in reality, Cullerton claimed, “They were voting against Pat Quinn.” And the same goes, he said, for the contested neighboring open seat race currently held by retiring Sen. Dave Luechtefeld (R-Okawville).

In the suburbs, Cullerton said, Rauner and Trump are both very unpopular, “Maybe Trump is a bit more unpopular,” he averred. But that still works to the Democrats’ advantage, Cullerton said.

Noting that his operation only surveys contested “swing” districts, Cullerton claimed that the governor’s poll numbers are “underwater everywhere.” And while Rauner “picked up a few points” after the governor and the General Assembly agreed to a stopgap budget in June, Rauner’s “job performance is still way underwater.”

Cullerton did not share any specific numbers, but what he said matches with what I’ve been hearing from others, including a few Republicans.

And that may also be part of the reason why Rauner continues to tell reporters that he isn’t much involved in legislative campaigns, even though GOP sources say he is involved. Personally interviewing candidates to replace retired state Sen. Matt Murphy (R-Palatine) along with his former chief of staff as well as what appears to be his favorite adviser John Tillman of the Illinois Policy Institute was more than just a clue that his interest approaches granularity levels. Admitting to actually being heavily involved would result in news stories about how he’s strongly influencing specific local races, however.

The Republicans have been tying House Speaker Michael Madigan to Democrats in both chambers in their mail and in their TV ads, but the Senate President claimed “The Madigan stuff doesn’t rub off on Democratic candidates,” then backed up a bit to say he was only familiar with polling for Senators and Senate candidates. “It doesn’t work on the Senators,” he said.

But, what if he’s wrong? What if Rauner’s vast wealth and his field operation manage to break through the extreme white noise of a presidential election and the Republicans do actually pick off several Democratic seats?

Well, a million dollars spent on Chicago broadcast TV ads hasn’t managed to propel Rep. Michael McAuliffe (R-Chicago) over 50 percent, according to the Republicans’ own polling, and his margin has actually shrunk since July. President Obama won McAuliffe’s district in 2012 by eight points, 53-45, according to data compiled by pollster We Ask America. Structural presidential year turnout like that is very difficult to overcome, and that includes those Senate races.

Still, I’ve been asking Democratic operatives lately what is keeping them awake at night, and they’ve all had about the same basic answer.

Targeted legislative races can often be decided by just a handful of votes. Rep. Kate Cloonen (D-Kankakee) is the most extreme example of this, winning by an average of about 100 votes the last two cycles. Rep. Mike Smiddy (D-Hillsdale) won his 2014 race by 314 votes. Former Democratic Rep. Frank Mautino won his last race two years ago by 337 votes.

The biggest potential problem is the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s supporters. Some Dems believe his support is actually higher than the polls are currently showing.

And in any given district, five hundred (or even fewer) Trump backers who rarely vote and therefore haven’t been personally contacted much, if at all, by either side could decide to head to the polls on election day and then continue supporting Republican candidates straight down the ticket and create some upsets.

Gov. Rauner’s unprecedented campaign spending and his emphasis on a ground game along with Trump’s huge popularity with white working class voters (who dominate all of the Democrats’ contested Downstate districts) are making this presidential cycle extremely unusual and, to an extent, unpredictable. So, no matter what Cullerton says, the Democrats are worried that they may actually lose some seats.

  27 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* McHenry County State’s Attorney Patrick Kenneally abruptly aborts reelection bid without explanation
* Question of the day
* It’s just a bill
* Protect Illinois Hospitality – Vote No On House Bill 5345
* You gotta be kidding me
* Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work
* Moody’s revises Illinois outlook from stable to positive (Updated)
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Live coverage
* *** UPDATED x1 - Equality Illinois 'alarmed' over possible Harris appointment *** Personal PAC warns Democratic committeepersons about Sen. Napoleon Harris
* Yesterday's stories

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