You’ll recall that a week ago today, Ken Griffin gave Durkin $2 million. Rauner’s Turnaround Illinois PAC busted the caps for the unopposed Durkin by spending a bit over $100,000 on a radio ad.
Songs move through time, seeking their final form. What happens on that path is only partly up to the writer, the singer, the musicians. It may be partly up to the audience hearing the songs, watching them as they are performed, with the response of the audience, even of a single member of the audience, coming back to the performers and, in ways that can be felt but never determined, reshaping the song. That is why, perhaps, it is the fact of Bob Dylan’s songs moving through time, and the way they have taken on elements of those times as they moved through them, that matters most on this interesting occasion.
Lights flicker from the opposite loft
In this room the heat pipes just cough
The country music station plays soft
But there’s nothing really nothing to turn off
Just Louise and her lover so entwined
And these visions of Johanna that conquer my mind
* Rep. Kate Cloonen (D-Kankakee) is one of the House Democrats whacking her opponent for wanting cuts in Social Security and Medicare. Politifact made the obvious ruling here…
In a campaign ad posted on Facebook, Cloonen said, “Lindsay Parkhurst wants to take away programs like Social Security and Medicare that seniors have earned throughout their lifetimes.”
With Social Security and Medicare being federal programs, state lawmakers have no say in setting benefit levels for these programs.
Additionally, Parkhurst has not previously held elected office and therefore has no public voting record on Social Security or Medicare. Nor has she talked about her position on Medicare or Social Security benefits in her campaign.
Ironically, Parkhurst is a defense attorney whose law firm has helped clients obtain Social Security disability benefits. She believes both Social Security and Medicare are part of a contract the federal government must honor.
Cloonen’s campaign did not respond to multiple emails and messages for comment, and the articles cited in the ad contain no mention of Parkhurst.
There is no evidence to back Cloonen’s claim, nor can we find any statement or action by Parkhurst that would have, even indirectly, elicited it.
We rate Cloonen’s claim Pants on Fire.
The Democrats have been doing this for years and they’ve always gotten away with it.
* You may have noticed that the Chicago Sun-Times endorsed Comptroller Leslie Munger this week. An excerpt…
Ask Munger what she thinks about Rauner’s agenda of pro-business reforms and she’ll tell you she likes it. But, unlike the governor, she has never argued those reforms should be a condition of passing a budget.
During remarks to the press and social service leaders, Munger repeated Rauner’s familiar refrain on the budget issue and how to solve it.
“We need to ask the governor and the General Assembly to get a balanced budget in place. I cannot emphasize (enough) the importance of the word ‘balanced,’” she said. “(It) must include some reforms. … We have very high cost for businesses and send businesses and jobs out of state.”
The bottom line is, the governor isn’t ever going to agree to a “balanced” budget (meaning new revenues) until he gets some of his reforms. And Munger has never once to my knowledge urged the governor to set aside those economic demands and work out a budget deal.
The cost of the proposed teachers’ contract with the city’s public school system amounts to about $8.9 billion over four years — a deal that would cost taxpayers at least $100 million more than the one teachers rejected in January, the Chicago Sun-Times has learned.
“I would say this deal has about $100 million more in it,” said Robert Bloch, a longtime attorney for the Chicago Teachers Union who was at the bargaining table late Monday when a strike was averted minutes before a midnight deadline.
The additional cost of the four-year contract proposal compared to the previous offer might even go beyond that, Bloch noted, saying the Chicago Public Schools’ “finances are so opaque, it’s hard to know exactly what they’re spending, what the cost is. […]
Questioned by the Sun-Times about the potential for the new contract to cost more than the one the teachers rejected in January, a mayoral confidant confirmed there would be an increase but contextualized it as relatively small given that the four-year deal would cost about $8.9 billion — or about $2.2 billion a year.
That is relatively small, but since Bloch is right about the opaqueness of CPS finances, we may never really know for sure.
And, by the way, the $100 million figure is just about the size of the district’s pension pickup, which the union mostly maintained in its new contract.
They also have spurred questions over whether or not the [TIF surplus] revenue represents a non-recurring revenue stream that can’t be counted annually to cover an annual operating expense, a position Emanuel seemed to previously back in statements.
That position has now changed.
“I don’t see TIF surplus at this stage as a one-time revenue,” city budget director Alexandra Holt said when asked about the issue during a meeting with Crain’s Chicago Business’ editorial board. “I see it as an ongoing revenue.”
Much of the surplus funding being freed up comes from frozen, canceled, and expiring TIFs as well as the “declared” amount.
Holt projected that surpluses will be available for well over a decade, and therefore should not be considered a so-called one-shot.
Chicago Public Schools CEO Forrest Claypool is “unfit” to lead the district, Chicago Teachers Union Vice President Jesse Sharkey told DNAinfo Chicago Thursday.
Three days after the teachers union reached a tentative agreement on a new contract with the district, Sharkey, the union’s second in command, said Claypool had “run the system off the edge of a cliff.”
“He is unfit to be CEO,” Sharkey said. “He has earned the contempt of teachers and parents across the city” by threatening mass layoffs and deep program cuts to schools.
Sharkey, however, stopped short of calling for Claypool’s ouster.
The Illinois Executive Mansion will close to public tours in January for what is expected to be a year-and-a-half restoration project.
Gov. Bruce Rauner and and his wife, Diana Rauner, plan to live at the Director’s House on the Illinois State Fairgrounds during the work, according to an announcement from the governor’s office Thursday. A separate announcement from the Illinois Executive Mansion Association said Springfield contractor O’Shea Builders had been selected as managing contractor for the restoration.
Diana Rauner is leading a private fundraising campaign to pay for the estimated $15 million cost of the work. The mansion association had raised $4.5 million as of July.
“When it reopens, the Illinois Executive Mansion will feature art exhibits that showcase Illinois artists, and an educational visitors center for school groups, along with some much needed updating,” Diana Rauner said in a statement.
* A pic of the director’s house on the fairgrounds…
Rauners to live at fairgrounds during Executive Mansion closure - News - The State Journal-Register - https://t.co/2wOtIUjtVn
* Earlier today, we talked about how Democratic House candidate Tony DelGiorno said “I have no intention to at this point in time” of voting for Michael Madigan for Speaker if he’s elected.”
“My district does not like the leadership of Speaker Madigan,” DelGiorno added.
* Well, GOP Rep. Sara Jimenez has a new TV ad that features audio of DelGiorno praising Madigan and pledging his vote…
* Script…
ANNOUNCER: On the Sangamon County Board, Tony DelGiorno doesn’t fit in. DelGiorno cast the only vote against a bipartisan balanced budget, denying critical funds for infrastructure, law enforcement, even veterans, while blocking a balanced budget. No wonder DelGiorno’s running for state Representative as Mike Madigan’s candidate.
DELGIORNO: “I admire the leadership that Speaker Madigan has. That means I’m voting for Madigan.”
ANNOUNCER: Tony DelGiorno, he’s for Madigan, not Sangamon County.
Those quotes were obviously from two different audio sources, but still.
* You use what works in campaigns, so, apparently, the Republicans tying Gov. Bruce Rauner around Democratic Sen. Gary Forby’s neck is something they think will work…
LOL on @ILAFLCIO call it's mentioned @ilgop put out mail saying that Gary Forby supports @GovRauner to drive down support in #Union homes.
* I’ve been surprised at the number of people who think Bob Dylan didn’t deserve his Nobel Prize for Literature. But here’s Rolling Stone’s take…
This is easily the most controversial award since they gave it to the guy who wrote Lord of the Flies, which was controversial only because it came next after the immensely popular 1982 prize for Gabriel García Márquez. Nobody can read the minds of the Nobel committee – it’s not that kind of award. You can’t argue that Dylan jumped the line in front of more deserving candidates, because there’s no internal logic to the process. Like most literary Nobels, except much more so, it comes out of the blue, giving Dylan fans a whole new glorious enigma to battle over. So settle in. This argument will take us years. If you’re looking to get silly, you better go back to from where you came.
According to the Swedish Academy, Dylan won “for having created new poetic expressions within the great American song tradition.” Of course it’s not poetry, not even sung poetry. It’s songwriting, it’s storytelling, it’s electric noise, it’s a bard exploiting the new-media inventions of his time (amplifiers, microphones, recording studios, radio) for literary performance the way playwrights or screenwriters once did…. He won for inventing ways to make songs do what they hadn’t done before.
The best argument for Dylan’s Nobel Prize comes from Ralph Waldo Emerson, even though he died a century before Shot of Love. His 1850 essay “Shakespeare; or the Poet,” from the book Representative Men, works as a cheat sheet to Dylan. For Emerson, Shakespeare’s greatness was to exploit the freedoms of a disreputable format, the theater: “Shakespeare, in common with his comrades, esteemed the mass of old plays, waste stock, in which any experiment could be freely tried. Had the prestige which hedges about a modern tragedy existed, nothing could have been done. The rude warm blood of the living England circulated in the play, as in street-ballads.”
This is a key point – Shakespeare was a writer/actor/manager hustling in the commercial theater racket for live crowds. He didn’t publish his plays – didn’t even keep written copies. Once it was onstage, he was on to the next one. (After his death, his friends had to cobble the First Folio together, mostly from working scripts, hence the deplorable state of his texts.) Low prestige meant constant forward motion. The theater was becoming a national passion, “but not a whit less considerable, because it was cheap.” He aimed his poetry at the groundlings: “It must even go into the world’s history, that the best poet led an obscure and profane life, using his genius for the public amusement.”
Dylan didn’t write many books either – his songs came out of that same “rude warm blood.” He makes sure you can’t reduce his songs to their verbal content
Today, about 11.5 percent of men between the ages of 24-54 are neither employed nor looking for a job [up from 3.3 percent in 1948]. Economists say that these people are “out of the labor force” — and they don’t figure into statistics like the unemployment rate. […]
In a recently released draft of his paper, which he will present at a Federal Reserve conference in Boston on Friday, [Princeton professor Alan Krueger, a former chief economist at the Department of Labor and former chairman of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers] finds that 44 percent of male, prime-age labor force dropouts say they took pain medication the day prior — which is more than twice the rate reported by employed men. […]
In a follow-up survey focusing on these male labor-force dropouts, Krueger found that these were serious habits. About two-thirds of the people taking pain medication were using prescription drugs, not over-the-counter remedies like Tylenol or aspirin. […]
About 20 percent of these men say they have difficulty walking or climbing stairs; about 16 percent say they have memory or concentration problems; over a third say they have a disability of some kind, and nearly 18 percent say they have multiple disabilities. […]
Declining health is becoming a major reason prime-age men are working less and less. The Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly asks people why they aren’t in the labor force. Of the 11.5 percent of prime-age men who aren’t employed or looking for a job, over half blame illness or disability. The rest are either retired, going to school, or performing housework.
In other words, fully 6 percent of American men between the ages of 25-54 feel that their minds or their bodies are too broken for them to work. This rate has nearly quadrupled since 1968, when only 1.6 percent of men felt the same way.
While a stroke by no means disqualifies anyone from public office, we cannot tiptoe around the issue of Kirk’s recovery and readiness. His health is a fundamental component of this race — a hotly contested matchup that could return control of the U.S. Senate to Democrats.
We aren’t physicians; Kirk’s doctor attests to his good cognitive health.
But we are voters. And our reluctant judgment is that, due to forces beyond his control, Kirk no longer can perform to the fullest the job of a U.S. senator. We are unable to endorse him for another six-year term.
We endorse Duckworth with the expectation that she stay focused on cost cutting as the nation navigates a debt crisis that much of official Washington recklessly ignores. We endorse her with the expectation she will challenge her party’s leaders. We endorse her with the realization that Illinois already has one fierce Democratic loyalist in the Senate, Dick Durbin. If she’s elected, it will be Duckworth’s job to also represent the many Republican and independent Illinoisans who won’t have voted for her but who deserve a voice.
*** UPDATE *** From Kirk’s campaign manager Kevin Artl…
A low-blow and cheap shot by the Chicago Tribune that is not based on fact or reality. The indisputable truth is that while Cong. Duckworth has been rated as one of the least effective members of Congress, Senator Mark Kirk has been one of the most successful. Kirk created bi-partisan support to keep the Export-Import Bank open, saving over 40,000 Illinois jobs, he secured millions in funding for law enforcement to crack down on gang violence and he is viewed as a national leader when he bucked his own party and said he could not support Donald Trump. Illinois families want results–not rhetoric–and that’s what Sen. Kirk delivers.
Maybe if Kirk had talked about Speaker Madigan instead of foreign policy at the editorial board debate he would’ve been endorsed. (No snark.)
Today, Illinois is taking another step to reform our criminal justice system.
First, our administration will be closing Stateville Correctional Center’s F House, one of the state’s oldest and most costly prison housing units. Built in 1922, F House is the only remaining “roundhouse” in use in the United States. It’s Panopticon layout is antiquated and creates safety and operational hazards for both staff and offenders. The structure itself is labor-intensive for staff and promotes a loud, chaotic environment for offenders.
When also taking into account the $10.3 million in deferred maintenance costs for F House, Illinois is better served by investing its limited resources into housing units and community-based programs that meet current national best practices and help reduce recidivism.
Second, in the coming months, we will reopen and repurpose the Illinois Youth Center at Murphysboro, which was built in 1993 and opened in 1997. A critical piece of our reform efforts is to help offenders gain valuable skills that will enable them to re-enter society as productive citizens. With that goal in mind, the Department of Corrections will reopen Murphysboro as a Life Skills and Re-Entry Facility, which is a minimum security facility with a focus on preparing offenders for a successful transition back into society through educational, vocational and life skills training.
By closing F House and repurposing Murphysboro, Illinois is taking another important step to reform our criminal justice system. Our administration will continue working with members of the legislature, the Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority and other stakeholders so that we can continue to make meaningful progress on these reforms to accomplish our goal of improving outcomes and dramatically reducing Illinois’ prison population.
A majority of registered voters in Illinois believe the earth is getting warmer because of human activity rather than natural patterns, according to the latest poll from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
There are 57 percent who believe human activity causes global warming while 25 percent believe in natural causes. Only 12 percent claim there is no evidence the earth is getting warmer, while 7 percent haven’t formed an opinion.
The survey of 1000 registered voters was taken Sept. 27-Oct. 2. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Another question asked whether to prioritize environmental protection or economic growth. Sixty-four percent believe that the environment should be given priority even at the cost of economic growth, while 27 percent believe that economic growth should be prioritized.
Shiloh Deitz, a researcher at the Institute, said “Voters understand environmental issues and are willing to prioritize them.”
Among the poll’s findings:
• Opinions differ about the environment across party and ideological lines: 82 percent of liberals believe climate change is due to human activity, only 28 percent of conservatives believe the same.
• While most liberals (80 percent) would prioritize the environment over economic growth, conservatives are split with 44 percent wishing to prioritize the environment and an almost equal 43 percent who want to focus on economic growth.
• Sixty-six percent of respondents under 50 see climate change as the result of human activity, compared to 55 percent of people age 51 to 65, and 47 percent of those over 66 years.
Deitz said “there is a stark contrast of these opinions across age groups. Gen X-ers and millennials have grown up with environmental awareness campaigns and this is clear in the results,” she said. “Younger people are most likely to see climate change as a result of human activity and want to prioritize environmental preservation even at the cost of economic growth.”
Only 7 percent of millennials believe that there is no evidence the earth is getting warmer, compared to 16 percent of adults over 66. Seventy-nine percent of those under 35 would prioritize the environment, while 61 percent of those over 66 would do the same.
One trend in the data indicates the Republican Party may soon grow more environmentalist. Nearly half (49 percent) of Republicans or conservatives under age 50 believe human activity can be blamed for the earth getting warmer compared to only a quarter of those over 50. Sixty-two percent of Republicans or conservatives under 50 would prioritize the environment even at the cost of economic growth compared to only 41 percent of Republicans or conservatives over 50.
* Let’s take a look at two charts based on that last paragraph above about the age split among Republicans/conservatives…
To: Interested Parties
From: Dan Judy and Jon McHenry
Date: October 12, 2016
Re: Highlights of IL 10 Congressional Survey
North Star Opinion Research conducted a survey of 400 registered voters in Illinois’ 10th congressional district October 8-11, 2016. Congressman Bob Dold remains well-positioned to win reelection, despite the headwinds of an unpopular presidential nominee. Highlights of the survey are:
1. The district retains its Democratic tilt. Democrats hold a 6-point advantage in self- identified party, 34 to 28 percent, and a 3-point advantage on the generic ballot for congress, 44 to 41 percent.
2. Donald Trump is unpopular in the district, while Hillary Clinton has a net positive image. Trump has a 28 to 64 percent favorable to unfavorable rating, compared to a 50 to 44 percent rating for Clinton. Clinton leads 53 to 31 percent on the ballot, with 7 percent for Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Jill Stein.
3. Bob Dold continues to have a positive image in the district. Dold has a 45 to 32 percent favorable-unfavorable rating, superior to both Trump’s and Mark Kirk’s ratings.
4. Dold has expanded his lead since the summer. Dold now leads Brad Schneider by 50 to 43 percent, up from a lead inside the margin of error in August. Looking at likely voters – those who say they are absolutely certain or very likely to vote in November – his lead remains 50-43. Dold receives 53 percent of independent voters, one-fourth of Hillary Clinton voters, and two- thirds of 3rd-party candidate voters.
As the national political environment deteriorates, many Republican candidates in swing districts will need to run well ahead of Donald Trump to win their races. Bob Dold has consistently out- polled Trump by 20 points, and a campaign emphasizing his independence and record of accomplishment for the 10th district has him in a solid position with under four weeks to go. A strong and well-funded campaign will keep him on track to win reelection on November 8.
Methodology
The sample for this Survey of Registered Voters in IL 10, conducted October 8-11, 2016, consists of 400 respondents selected randomly from a list of registered voters in the district who were contacted by live interviewers. All respondents confirmed that they are registered to vote in the county in which they live, and 36 percent of respondents were interviewed on a cell phone. Demographic quotas were set to ensure the sample matches registration statistics in the district.
* The DCCC begs to differ…
Newsflash: Republican Bob Dold’s “Poll” is a Joke
The NRCC’s new “poll,” released this morning, has Republican Congressman Bob Dold at a laughable 7-point lead over Democrat Brad Schneider. This “poll” flies in the face of multiple public polls released over the past year showing Schneider with consistent leads over their Republican incumbent:
Furthermore, the NRCC’s results simply defy intelligence, as their presidential nominee Donald Trump continues his death spiral in the polls, and traditionally Republican or swing states start to move over to the Democratic column. No candidate with an “R” next to their name on the ballot will be resistant to this toxic Trump Effect. A recently-released DCCC online survey conducted after the leaked Access Hollywood tapes, and after more recent allegations that Trump made inappropriate sexual advances toward many other women, found that the political environment is shifting in the favor of Democrats. These results are consistent with other public polling released since the debate.
“It’s clear that National Republicans had to cook up a poll to make their incumbent candidate Republican Bob Dold feel better,” said Sacha Haworth. “There’s no other reason why this poll exists, since it flies so blatantly in the face of everything else that’s out there.”
* We’ll circle back to this story about last night’s legislative candidate forum later today, but for now let’s talk about this angle…
One person [Democrat Tony DelGiorno of Springfield, who is running against Rep. Sara Jimenez] said he won’t vote for is Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, for another term as speaker. Republican Party mailers against DelGiorno have depicted him as a mere puppet for Madigan. […]
“If you want an answer to the question ‘will I vote for Speaker Madigan?’ I have no intention to at this point in time,” DelGiorno said.
He’s criticized Jimenez for casting votes that didn’t reflect the 99th district, he said, so it wouldn’t be appropriate for him to then vote for Madigan as speaker.
“My district does not like the leadership of Speaker Madigan,” DelGiorno said, adding that he would vote for any alternative who rejects an agenda that hurts the middle class.
As we’ve already discussed, DelGiorno released a poll yesterday showing him trailing Rep. Jimenez by just 5 points. But he’s sitting at 38 percent, which is a long way to 50 plus one, so he may need lots more money to put him over the top. He hasn’t taken any cash from Madigan’s operation so far.
Your thoughts on whether this was the right move considering his current position and Madigan’s unpopularity? Also, do you believe him?
* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s radio network…
One central Illinois congressman thinks Illinois voters can differentiate between GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, D-Chicago.
U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Dist. 13, said GOP voters across downstate Illinois may have questions about Trump, but Davis said the voters he’s talked to have no doubt about Madigan and what is happening in Springfield.
“It would be a travesty if what’s happening at the presidential level went down to down-ballot races to give Mike Madigan more power in Springfield,” Davis said.
But Davis said if local candidates have been meeting with voters, talking about issues and, most importantly, listening, then voters will be able to differentiate between national and local races.
