20th District: If you want to send another Michael Madigan “Mini-Me” to Springfield, then vote for Merry Marwig, the Democratic candidate in this Northwest Side/suburban district who is following the Madigan playbook. She’s accepting thousands of dollars from Madigan’s campaign funds. She’s attacking her opponent, Rep. Michael McAuliffe, R-Chicago, with untruthful mail pieces. And she’s lying low, rarely speaking publicly or answering questions. McAuliffe is the only Republican in the House who represents part of Chicago. You want even more one-party, draconian rule in Springfield? Then vote for the “Mini-Me.” We’re endorsing McAuliffe.
* The Question: On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the greatest, how much impact will “the Speaker Madigan issue” have on House races this November? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 600 likely voters in Illinois. Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted September 27-29, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4%.
• Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has weathered nearly a million dollars of false attacks on TV during the month of September alone and has expanded her lead over Senator Mark Kirk to 46% to 37%.
• These improvements for Duckworth took place without any commensurate advantage in the presidential race. The presidential race remains steady in Illinois.
The current poll shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump 52%-35%. Our August 1-4 poll showed Clinton leading Trump 51%-32%.
Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth continues to expand her lead over incumbent Senator Mark Kirk, 46%-37%. As the chart below indicates, this nine-point lead is an increase from the August 1-4 poll that showed Duckworth besting Kirk 44%-37%, a seven-point lead. Duckworth remains ahead among constituencies critical to Kirk’s success in November, including Independents (45%-30%) and among Veteran households (44%-40%). Moreover, she maintains strong leads among core Democratic constituencies of African American (70%-8%), Hispanic (62%-26%), and women (46%-36%) voters.
In September, Kirk and Republican special interest groups spent nearly one million dollars attacking Duckworth both Downstate in the Chicago media market with false ads about her record on Veterans and commitment to fighting terrorism. Despite these attacks, Duckworth maintains a 29-point margin over Kirk for which candidate is dedicated to helping Veterans (44%-15%) and an 8-point lead on Is someone we can count on to keep America safe (30%-22%).
Not only is Duckworth pulling farther ahead but voters have increasing negative impressions of Kirk. As the chart above shows, his favorable rating has steadily eroded since the summer and he is now five points underwater.
God forbid your teenage son is arrested in Illinois on the Friday before a three-day holiday weekend.
Even for an offense as minor as retail theft, as a juvenile he could sit locked up all weekend, and not stand before a judge to determine if he deserves to be charged or detained until the following Tuesday.
Across Illinois, Juvenile Courts are closed on weekends and holidays. But the courts are open for adults 365 days a year. They generally get hearings within 24 hours of arrest.
That discrepancy is expected to end in Cook County next month, thanks to a federal court suit filed by four parents and some tough talk from U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Durkin. Under an agreement being worked out in that case, Cook County is expected to start holding detention hearings for juveniles within 24 hours of arrest.
That’s a change that should be established statewide. Teens are far more vulnerable – and redeemable – than adults. They should be entitled to post-arrest court hearings in every county in the same time frame granted adults, if not sooner.
Gov. Bruce Rauner is pushing a bill that would provide released convicts with state identification cards in an effort to reduce rates of prison returnees.
The bill, which was passed unanimously through the Illinois Senate in April, aims to reduce recidivism, or relapse in criminal behavior or imprisonment. The bill has bipartisan support, Rauner said. Having a state ID will help former convicts obtain a bank account, an apartment lease or a cell phone, he said.
“In order to combat recidivism we need to remove some of the hurdles offenders face when they are released from a detention facility and begin to re-integrate into society,” Rauner said in a news release. “In this case, it’s the simple step of providing an offender with a state ID.”
The bill requires the State Department to issue an ID to any prisoner upon release if they present a birth certificate, a social security card and two proofs of address. For those without those documents, the Department will issue an ID that is valid for 90 days if the prisoner is able to present a verified document from the Department of Corrections or Juvenile Justice with their name, birth date, social security number and proof of address.
The bill is not yet perfect, Flowers said, because it implies the [Secretary of State] has employees in correction centers who are able to give the prisoners IDs when they are released.
* Could TIF surpluses avert a teachers strike? Maybe, says the Tribune…
With an Oct. 11 strike date looming, sources on both sides privately have expressed guarded optimism that a deal can get done.
Emerging as a likely key to any pact is how much money from the special taxing district Emanuel is willing to direct to Chicago Public Schools. […]
“The settlement hinges on money coming from a development slush fund into the public school system,” CTU Vice President Jesse Sharkey said last week. “That’s what the settlement hinges on. It’s about the money.” […]
Last year, the amount declared as surplus was particularly large at $113 million, with CPS getting more than half. But pressure to direct more funding from TIFs to schools grew in June, when Cook County Clerk David Orr reported that the city’s total take in 2015 from 146 tax districts grew by $89 million, to $461 million. […]
Sharkey said if CPS received its share of the total overall surplus, not just the $32 million that has been budgeted, “there’d be enough money to pay for a whole number of things that we’re asking for.”
As the mayor says in the story, however, this isn’t a longterm solution.
The way some business interests describe Illinois’ tax climate, one might think it’s about the worst in the nation.
Not so, according to the Tax Foundation, a tax policy research organization. The group’s annual State Business Tax Climate Index ranked Illinois 23rd.
That’s well above California, New York and New Jersey, deemed the nation’s three worst. All of our neighboring states also fared worse, with the exception of Indiana, which was ranked eighth in the nation.
But Illinois made the bottom 10 — at 46th — for its property tax structure. Real estate taxes are high in Illinois because that’s the primary mechanism used to fund local schools.
As the piece goes on to note, Illinois’ ranking will undoubtedly fall once again as soon as the state income tax is raised.
Anecdotes about the impact of state tax systems on business investment are plentiful. In Illinois early last decade, hundreds of millions of dollars of capital investments were delayed when then-Governor Rod Blagojevich proposed a hefty gross receipts tax. Only when the legislature resoundingly defeated the bill did the investment resume.
So one can only wonder what impact an uncertain fiscal future has on the current biz climate.
With less than six weeks until Election Day, Democratic challenger and former Congressman Brad Schneider leads incumbent Republican Congressman Bob Dold, 46%-41% in the rematch contest for the 10th Congressional District of Illinois. […]
o Dold’s favorable rating remains objectively low at 34%-29%. Voters know him but they certainly do not like him.
o His job rating is weak, with just 38% of voters rating his performance as “excellent” or “good” and 35% rating his “not so good” or “poor.”
o Moreover, despite Dold’s repeated attempts to mischaracterize Schneider’s position on the Iran deal to persuade Jewish voters, they remain solidly with Schneider.
Not only does Schneider hold a five-point lead, but the political environment also strongly favors him:
o President Barack Obama is increasingly popular, with a favorable rating of 60%-31% and a job rating of 61%-37%. Both of these measures are better than in 2012 when Schneider first defeated Dold.
o Donald Trump is a major liability for Dold. He is nearly universally unpopular with a favorable rating of 25%-64%, with 49% rating him very unfavorable. Hillary Clinton has a 27-point lead over Trump in the race for president, 59%-32%.
The problem for Schneider is that he’s so badly trailing the top of the ticket.
Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones (51% landlines, 49% mobile). Interviews were conducted September 28-29, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4.9%.
* Meanwhile, from Illinois Review…
DOLD SNUBS GOP NOMINEE TRUMP AND PARTY PLATFORM IN LATEST AD
Congressman Bob Dold (IL-10) is very proud of his independence from the Republican Party’s presidential nominee and the GOP’s conservative leadership in the U.S. House. He boasts of how he’s parted with their pro-Second Amendment and pro-life positions in his new ad:
Thanks to hefty infusions of cash from multimillionaire Rauner and his wealthy supporters, the Illinois Republican Party topped the Democrats by taking in about $21 million since July 2015, state records show. Liberty Principles, a super PAC supporting Republicans, took in another $10 million.
“I’ve witnessed and been part of campaigns where we’ve been outspent by two or three times by the House Democrats,” said Jim Durkin, the House Republican leader. “Now we’re competing dollar for dollar statewide.”
Over the same period, the four political committees that Madigan controls — including the state Democratic Party, which he chairs — have collected more than $14 million. The top donors, as in years past, are unions and their political action committees. […]
By using multiple political committees, Madigan and his allies are able to gather more money from donors than would be allowed for a single committee under state campaign finance laws. Funds also are being moved from one committee to another. […]
As [Rep. Kate Cloonen’s] race grows more heated and expensive — at $1.7 million and counting — her challenger, attorney Lindsay Parkhurst, has received support from Liberty Principles, Proft’s Republican super PAC.
While she fights for her political life, Cloonen’s committee also has become a piggy bank for others. In the last week, more than $300,000 in contributions to her have been redistributed to Madigan’s committees and other campaign funds, including those of several legislators in tough races.
Those transfers by Cloonen are a bit weird, and I went through them with subscribers last week.
* From the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform…
Contribution limits are also lifted if independent expenditures supporting or opposing a single candidate in a race exceed $250,000 in statewide races or $100,000 in all other races. The $100,000 mark has been passed in 3 House and 2 Senate races thus far.
The House districts affected are:
46th: Deb Conroy (D) vs. Heidi Holan (R)
59th: Carol Sente (D) vs. Dawn Abernathy (R)
72nd: Michael Halpin (D) vs. Brandi McGuire (R)
The Senate districts affected are:
28th: Laura Murphy (D) vs. Mel Thillens (R)
49th: Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant (D) vs. Michelle Smith (R)
So far, limits have been removed in a total of 9 races at various levels of government, including the House 114th District, where candidate Bob Romanik (R) has self-funded his campaign against Latoya Greenwood (D) with over $2 million. A total of 16 races saw limits lifted in advance of the March Illinois Primary.
* More…
The Illinois Republican Party transferred another $375K to the RSSCC. https://t.co/0mwhSNEoCw
Gannett’s long quest to buy the newspaper company known as Tronc is nearing the finish line.
Confidential sources have told POLITICO that asset purchase agreement drafts have been exchanged by Gannett, the country’s second-largest newspaper chain and publisher of USA Today, and Tronc, formerly known as Tribune Publishing and the publisher of such broadsheet mainstays as The Los Angeles Times, The Chicago Tribune and The Baltimore Sun. The announcement of a deal could come as soon as business opens on the fourth quarter of the year, as early as Monday morning. […]
While the public had become well aware of Ferro’s aversion to selling, it hadn’t realized other complications of the deal. Financing looks like it is now in place for Gannett, with Jefferies LLC, a large American global investment bank, in place, financial sources said. As I reported earlier, Gannett had run into financing issues with large banks, including JP Morgan, growing wary of a deal. There were two main factors to their hesitation: First, the increasingly high price of the acquisition makes its financial justification tougher to certify, with Gannett’s leverage ratios apparently one question. Secondly, the further cratering of print advertising and sluggishness of digital advertising complicate further assessment of forward value.
Investors generally have shared the concern that Gannett could be overreaching in what would be its third significant acquisition since the newspaper operations split from old Gannett (newspapers and broadcast stations, now assembled as TEGNA) two years ago. As the stock market has hit new highs, Gannett has seen a drop of 40 percent in share price since it began its quest for Tribune/Tronc.
For its part, Gannett has remained bullish on the deal, believing it can wring large cost-saving synergies by combining many operations.
When Gannett’s purchase of Tronc becomes official, Gannett will own the #3, #4, #10, #20, and #23 newspapers in the country. pic.twitter.com/pm0ChsxCh4
The Illinois state treasurer plans to announce that the state will suspend billions of dollars of investment activity with Wells Fargo.
Illinois Treasurer Michael Frerichs plans a Monday morning news conference in Chicago to give details about a moratorium on state business with Wells Fargo.
U.S. and California regulators have fined San Francisco-based Wells Fargo $185 million, saying employees who were trying to meet sales targets opened up to 2 million fake accounts without customers’ knowledge. The abuses are said to have gone on for years, unchecked by senior management.
Wells Fargo made the list of 15 senior underwriters tapped by Illinois this month for bond sales over the next three years. A spokeswoman for Governor Bruce Rauner declined to comment on whether his office is rethinking Wells Fargo’s selection.
Chicago Treasurer Kurt Summers plans to divest $25 million the city has invested with Wells Fargo & Co. after the company admitted to opening potentially millions of bogus client accounts, joining state officials who have pulled business from the bank because of the scandal.
Summers, whose office manages the city’s $7 billion investment portfolio, plans to “unwind these assets as expeditious as possible in a fashion that is prudent and will protect taxpayer money,’’ according to a statement from his office sent to Bloomberg News.
“Today, the Office of the City Treasurer is proud to stand with working families from Chicago and across the nation by divesting in Wells Fargo & Co.,’’ according to the e-mailed statement. “Chicago deserves better.’’
*** UPDATE *** I’m told the Rauner administration won’t be using Wells Fargo for any new bond sales “until further notice.” The administration hasn’t done any bond business with Wells Fargo to date, and it chose not to do business with Wells Fargo on the current bond deal that’s in progress.
Rick Renteria is managing in Chicago again. This time, on the South Side of town.
The White Sox on Monday named Renteria as the 40th manager in club history, replacing Robin Ventura, who managed his last game Sunday after five seasons.
Renteria, hired by the Theo Epstein regime but fired with two years left on his Cubs contract after the 2014 season when Joe Maddon became available, sat out of baseball during the 2015 season before returning as Ventura’s bench coach this season. He managed the Cubs to a 73-89 record during a rebuilding year.
The Sox were 375-435 under Ventura, including 78-84 this year. The Sun-Times first reported Saturday that Renteria would be named as his replacement Monday.
S&P Global Ratings dropped Illinois’ credit rating one notch to BBB on Friday and warned it could fall further absent a long-term solution that deals with the state’s chronic structural budget deficit and pension woes.
“The downgrade reflects our view of continued weak financial management and increased long-term and short-term pressures tied to declining pension funded levels,” said S&P analyst John Sugden in a statement.
Illinois, the lowest-rated U.S. state, is in its second straight fiscal year without a complete budget due to an impasse between its Republican governor and Democrats who control the legislature.
The impasse, along with a $111 billion unfunded pension liability and a growing pile of unpaid bills have pounded Illinois’ credit ratings into the low-investment grade triple-B level.
S&P said another downgrade could follow “should the state continue to demonstrate a lack of ability or willingness to adopt a long-term structural budget solution that also incorporates a credible approach to its long-term liabilities.”
Moody’s Investors Service has assigned a Baa2 rating to the State of Illinois’ $1.8 billion of general obligation (GO) bonds in two series, the General Obligation Refunding Bonds, Series of October 2016, and General Obligation Bonds, Series of November 2016. The rating factors in severely underfunded pension plans, failure to address a structural deficit because of a political impasse, and narrow operating fund liquidity that is driving up a backlog of unpaid bills. Offsetting these challenging conditions are the state’s large, diverse economic base; legal provisions that ensure continued debt payment even with no enacted budget, and the powers common to US states, such as control over revenue and spending. […]
Credit Challenges
» Political paralysis that has impeded efforts to pass appropriation legislation or achieve structural balance for a second year
» Severe pension funding shortfall and growing adjusted net pension liability (ANPL)
» Chronic use of payment deferrals to manage operating fund cash
» Weak management practices shown by pension underfunding, payment delays and recurring negative fund balances
* And while everybody talks about pensions, Greg Hinz concludes it’s time to just fund ‘em fully and move the heck on…
That, though, still leaves the mortgage—the $111 billion owed to Tier 1 folks, money that justices have ruled we cannot avoid paying.
Some say the state ought to ignore the Supreme Court and stiff the pensioners. Not in this state. Others argue that a “consideration” model could be used to cut benefits in Tier 1. That’s a long shot. So is amending the constitution. As for declaring bankruptcy to shed the debt, it’s not legal for states. I like the idea of lump-sum employee buyouts, but where do you get the lump sum?
That leaves one solution: Suck it up and pay. That won’t be easy. A recent blog post by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago concluded, “Illinois has little room to increase taxes without reducing economic activity in ways that would be damaging.”
But instability is more damaging, I now think. Delaying the day of reckoning just drives up the ultimate price tag. And maybe it all doesn’t have to come from taxes. Perhaps public employee unions can be convinced to make concessions on pay or work rules in exchange for the luxurious guaranteed 3 percent annual increases they’re getting in pension benefits at a time of 1 percent inflation.
If the state’s economy remains slack and investment returns remain low, Illinois and a lot of other states are going to have big, big problems. But at least we won’t be denying reality and can-kicking anymore. That would be a start.
The Illinois comptroller’s election is often described as a proxy war between Gov. Bruce Rauner and House Speaker Michael Madigan. It is most definitely that, but the result could change the direction of state government.
Rauner appointed fellow Republican Leslie Munger to the job after Judy Baar Topinka, the fiercely independent and outspoken Republican incumbent, died about a month after her re-election in 2014. Normally, Munger would’ve received a full four-year term, but Madigan decided that was too long so the Democrats changed the law. Rauner could appoint Munger for two years only.
Several months after Munger’s appointment, Madigan helped recruit Chicago City Clerk Susana Mendoza into the race. And then he, um, nudged state Sen. Daniel Biss out of the Democratic primary to give Mendoza a clear path to the general election.
As a matter of both pride and credibility, the governor has an obligation to help his appointee win. And since Rauner and Madigan are engaged in a long and nasty war, and since Mendoza is Madigan’s candidate, the speaker most definitely wants to see her prevail.
Whoever wins this contest will obviously give their political overlords bragging rights. Normally, a Democrat would be heavily favored because it’s a presidential election year. But the spectacularly wealthy Rauner is expected to dump a fortune into Munger’s campaign.
Gov. Rauner attended a meeting last week of his “Cabinet on Children & Youth,” but it’s not known if he pulled aside one of its members, State Superintendent of Education Tony Smith, for a little chat.
The Illinois State Board of Education is reportedly mulling whether to settle a civil rights lawsuit filed eight years ago by the Chicago Urban League. The suit essentially claims that Illinois’ education funding system violates minority students’ rights because a disproportionate number of those kids reside in areas with the lowest property wealth and also attend schools with majority-minority enrollment. They’re basically getting shafted by the state, so they sued.
According to the Urban League’s CEO Shari Runner, the ISBE “walked away from lengthy settlement talks that we held this summer.” The group has filed a motion for summary judgment and Runner said last week it is “awaiting ISBE’s response.” Runner said the group hopes to “hold ISBE liable for implementing an unlawful and discriminatory school system.”
A settlement would drastically alter the way Illinois funds its school system, with wealthier suburban and Downstate districts losing tons of state money. It would also preempt long-stalled legislative action on the topic.
Last summer, when negotiations with the Urban League were still apparently underway, Gov. Rauner impaneled an education funding reform working group and charged it with coming up with a solution to the funding inequities by the first of next year. So, the Urban League’s civil rights lawsuit may actually be why Rauner imposed such an ambitious timetable.
What the administration doesn’t want (along with a whole lot of impacted legislators) is to take the tricky solution out of the hands of the governor and the General Assembly and give it to a Cook County judge. But there’s no guarantee that the governor’s funding reform working group will come to an agreement. A deal is politically complicated because legislators who represent wealthier school districts also tend to oppose tax hikes. But they’ll be forced to choose between losing state cash or voting for higher state taxes. Some might actually welcome judicial intervention to spare them this fate.
Word from inside is that some ISBE legal staff are urging board members to settle the suit. The board’s chief legal counsel, for instance, is a former Chicago Public Schools chief of staff. The city’s school system filed an amicus brief years ago supporting the Urban League case.
Perhaps more importantly, though, a massive amount of supporting data has been compiled since the suit was brought all those years ago, mainly because of state Sen. Andy Manar’s constant push to reform the system. The plaintiffs might be able to make their case more easily now than they could when their suit was filed. So, the logic goes, a settlement would be far better than a loss.
Superintendent Smith has made no bones about the fact that the state’s funding system is archaic and harmful to minority children, but he apparently hasn’t spoken up in the last couple of private board meetings when members discussed the litigation, and one board member swears Smith is not communicating directly with members about the case. Still, rumors abound that he is driving the settlement talks.
Smith has recently upped his national profile by traveling the country to talk about various education issues. He is not a popular man within the administration for several reasons, and his generous employment contract caused the Rauner folks quite a few headaches last year. Some Republicans claim he’s angling for a spot in a potential Hillary Clinton administration, which he has denied.
State Board of Education Chairman James Meeks, a former state Senator who pushed hard for education funding reform for years and was one of a tiny number of high-profile African-Americans to support Rauner’s 2014 election, has reportedly not taken an official position on the litigation. Meeks is said to be suggesting that board members also talk with the governor’s legal counsel to get another side of the issue. The board insists that Smith doesn’t have the authority to settle the case on his own, and there’s no indication at this moment that he plans to do so.
A settlement would also create a thorny political problem for Gov. Rauner down the road. A big chunk of his political base would get the short end of the stick, which won’t go over well when he runs for reelection in 2018.
Ironically, the state government got itself dismissed from the case several years ago, so I suppose we could see the administration try to get itself back into the game if the ISBE decides to move forward with a settlement.
