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Schneider poll has him ahead by 5, Dold launches new TV ad

Monday, Oct 3, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I tweeted this out over the weekend, so let’s take a look here

With less than six weeks until Election Day, Democratic challenger and former Congressman Brad Schneider leads incumbent Republican Congressman Bob Dold, 46%-41% in the rematch contest for the 10th Congressional District of Illinois. […]

    o Dold’s favorable rating remains objectively low at 34%-29%. Voters know him but they certainly do not like him.

    o His job rating is weak, with just 38% of voters rating his performance as “excellent” or “good” and 35% rating his “not so good” or “poor.”

    o Moreover, despite Dold’s repeated attempts to mischaracterize Schneider’s position on the Iran deal to persuade Jewish voters, they remain solidly with Schneider.

Not only does Schneider hold a five-point lead, but the political environment also strongly favors him:

    o President Barack Obama is increasingly popular, with a favorable rating of 60%-31% and a job rating of 61%-37%. Both of these measures are better than in 2012 when Schneider first defeated Dold.

    o Donald Trump is a major liability for Dold. He is nearly universally unpopular with a favorable rating of 25%-64%, with 49% rating him very unfavorable. Hillary Clinton has a 27-point lead over Trump in the race for president, 59%-32%.

The problem for Schneider is that he’s so badly trailing the top of the ticket.

* This is based on 399 likely voters

Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones (51% landlines, 49% mobile). Interviews were conducted September 28-29, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4.9%.

* Meanwhile, from Illinois Review…

DOLD SNUBS GOP NOMINEE TRUMP AND PARTY PLATFORM IN LATEST AD

Congressman Bob Dold (IL-10) is very proud of his independence from the Republican Party’s presidential nominee and the GOP’s conservative leadership in the U.S. House. He boasts of how he’s parted with their pro-Second Amendment and pro-life positions in his new ad:

* The spot

Thoughts?

       

12 Comments
  1. - lake county - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 12:43 pm:

    Odd that Dold would equate both sides when Hillary is that far ahead in his district. But given Dold’s “Beat Hillary” fundraiser…


  2. - lake county - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 12:46 pm:

    Is Dold’s commercial the only anti-Hillary ad on TV in Illinois right now?


  3. - Anonymous - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 1:51 pm:

    A+ for a straight forward message. The commercial also knocks down several false claims leveled against Dold by Schneider (tying Dold to votes of other Republicans rather than acknowledging Dold’s own votes).


  4. - hisgirlfriday - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 2:05 pm:

    @Lake County - No. The pro-Trump Super PAC run by the Ricketts family, Future 45, has anti-Hillary ads on cable TV comparing her to Nixon. At least in Central IL anyway.


  5. - Jose Abreu's next homer - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 2:06 pm:

    Can I just assume these two will change seats every 2 years for the next 5 elections, or can Dan Seals come back?


  6. - Anon - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 2:11 pm:

    Working with anyone is a good line but it’s lost thanks to the “Clinton and Trump are the same” beginning. He loses his audience right there.


  7. - ZC - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 2:23 pm:

    Anon 2:11 raises a good question, whether it cuts it to be ambivalent between Clinton and Trump in that district, in 2016. Trump is not going to carry Lake County.


  8. - Federalist - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:11 pm:

    Wasting his time trying to persuade Jewish voters. They are and always have been a solid Democratic bloc. Republicans have tried this many time over the years and no matter what the results are the same.

    Dold has a real problem with Trump at the head of the ticket. It will not help his already difficult position.


  9. - Anon - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:33 pm:

    Considering how unpopular Trump is in IL-10, it seems insane to start a direct to the camera ad with a “Hillary’s shrill and just like Trump” part. I can’t get past that.


  10. - Illinois Bob - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:06 pm:

    So Dold pretty much trashes the key issues for conservatives and is just a “Democrat lite”, and he wonders why few in the GOP and independents, let alone Dems, are supporting him?

    What a surprise for both him and Kirk….LOL


  11. - Ron - Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 6:33 pm:

    Dold will be swept out as Trump goes down in flames.


  12. - Anon - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 6:55 am:

    Thought: Dold’s internals tell him he can’t win this year so this actually is the first ad of Dold’s 2018 campaign. (Another Schneider-Dold race!!)


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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