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Fun with numbers
Monday, Nov 28, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller * The governor’s office released a video of Gov. Rauner’s morning show interviews today. From that video…
* From the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Illinois page…  And, of course, the pension liability has continued to rise even after the tax hike partially expired, so that argument is essentially meaningless, although it does sound good to the teevee people. …Adding… More from the governor’s round of morning show appearances. This one from WGN TV…
More jobs would create more revenues. But how many more jobs can be created and how much additional revenues would they generate? He doesn’t say. Lowering the property tax burden would conceivably free up money that could be used for job creation, but how much? Again, he doesn’t say. Also, too, properly funding schools will require more money, not less. And I’m not quite sure how term limits will “benefit the budget.”
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- illini97 - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 12:55 pm:
You know, I’m starting to think Governor Rauner doesn’t particularly care for numbers or facts.
- Linus - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 12:57 pm:
Illinois, bringing back manufacturing jobs! The manufacturing of “facts” and fake news, anyway.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 12:57 pm:
I’m not worried for Democrats.
Any minute, they’ll issue a press release and with an easel and multi-colored charts like this, they will bore everyone to tears while Lance trolls a member of the HDems, “ck” will use the Rauner Word Jumble, and Goldberg will write a letter to the Bureau of Labor Statistics…
… and Rauner will win the day.
When you’re losing the argument daily when the statistics are on your side… you’re doing it wrong.
- Former Downstater - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 12:57 pm:
A bit Trumpian, no?
- 47th Ward - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 12:59 pm:
The chart disproves his claim of “accelerated” job losses after the tax hike. And yet, people believe him anyway.
I mean, it’s right there on the chart people. No one calls him on this stuff?
Let’s see: politician says X, data say Y. Yes, the answer is clearly X and if you don’t believe me, you’re a partisan hack.
- m - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:01 pm:
==you’re doing it wrong.==
Is someone else pretending to be OW?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:02 pm:
“This Just In - ILRaunerite State Party Calls BOL Stats ‘Phony’,Reforms Needed Now”
Oh, and Rep. Guzzardi…
It’s swell that you want a “message”, but let’s be honest for about 9 minutes and realize even if YOU got whatever you think is “important” in the message, the execution of your thingy, if recent history continues, will be swamped and overrun, and turned against you.
- Boone's is Back - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:04 pm:
Maybe the Gov will hire his own Goebbles aka Bannon. Oh wait… isn’t that Proft?
- m - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:08 pm:
Since OW doesn’t appear to be feeling like his usual self.
“Governor’s own, that’s the way it’s always been. Do your plans get you to 60 and 30? Didn’t think so.”
Now I don’t feel like I’m in an alternate dimension.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:10 pm:
- m -
Read. Stop trolling.
It’s about messaging.
Are you unable to read or willfully ignorant to words and meanings?
- Anon221 - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:17 pm:
I guess the round of morning shows by Rauner is one reason the leader’s meeting isn’t until 3 pm today. Talkin’ and not sayin’ says a lot.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:18 pm:
===… it’s almost as if he works for Steve Brown or Tim Mapes.===
No. Consistently speaking, more like Edgar.
Making everything about me isn’t making an argument.
If you can’t make an argument and your purpose is to make things about me, what are you saying about your positions?
- Moist von Lipwig - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:20 pm:
Rauner seems to be playing the Trump playbook of making wild claims that have nothing to do with one another or basis in fact. Of course the 2011 tax increase had a positive impact, and the State was getting toward a 30 day billing cycle when the tax rate expired.
Under Rauner’s logic, I can claim that the 5% tax rate didn’t create jobs, but it did give us marriage equality. That’s a good thing!
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:21 pm:
The biggest chunk of property tax bills go to K-12 education. To lower property tax bills, the State needs to follow the Illinois Constitution and be the primary funder of K-12 education. That is the easy part. Not so easy is coming up with the State revenue for the State to be the primary funder of K-12 education. Rauner ignores that part of the equation.
- JS Mill - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:21 pm:
=When you’re losing the argument daily when the statistics are on your side… you’re doing it wrong.=
Incompetence, plain and simple.
@DW- I see you run away when you can’t answer questions honestly. Kind of like the knights in “Monty Python’s the Holy Grail”.
I guess that is your game.
- yeah - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:22 pm:
A wooden boy with clay feet cries wolf.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:24 pm:
To Rauner??
I have no idea why a governor refuses to take any good news and is more than willing to deflate any good news unless it helps an agenda that has no possibility of passing.
The governing is failing, in part, due to Rauner refusing the politics that help a governor move things to happen, like good economic news continually dismissed by IDES.
The Raunerism needs are first, governing and actually “being” a governor in the politics is second. “Why?” Raunerism.
This post is about confusing Raunerism messaging, and I’m highlighting continued Democratic failures in having a “message” to counter, but they are lacking in the 1954 manner HDems specifically and continually go about their business.
- HistProf - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:42 pm:
Rich,
You write, “Lowering the property tax burden would conceivably free up money that could be used for job creation, but how much? Again, he doesn’t say.”
We are nowhere near experiencing a shortage of investment cash! (If you don’t believe Keynes or Krugman, check the interest rates.) That is NOT the problem either internationally, nationally, or locally. Half of Obama’s stimulus consisted of tax cuts. Those tax cuts did not result in increased investment because we have a demand side problem. That’s the half of Obama’s stimulus that failed! This supply side nonsense is just that, nonsense.
In terms of the Dems getting a message, I agree with O.W. And the message should be this: only increased public investments in crucial infrastructure and education will bring jobs to Illinois and keep jobs here. A large proportion of college grads remain in the state where they graduate and we are bleeding them out to Iowa and Wisconsin.
Perhaps we can cut a deal on workman’s comp., I don’t know much about it. But only first rate infrastructure and a first rate labor force will make Illinois attractive to private investors.
- SAP - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:44 pm:
So employment levels crashed starting 2 years before the tax increase (happened nationwide, BTW) and starting climbing again right around the time the tax hike took effect. This chart helps Rauner’s narrative how?
- Lucky Pierre - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:47 pm:
Facts are undeniable. After we raised taxes in 2011, Illinois has had one of the weakest recoveries in the nation and the worst in the Midwest from the Great Recession.
There are still 32,500 less people employed in our state than 16 years ago and 146,000 less people employed since 2007.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/illinois/
I can’t for the life of me figure out why there are so many deniers out there. Illinois needs drastic changes to attract more businesses and the people they need to employ and if Springfield just passes another phony budget instead of reforming Illinois we will continue our decline.
- Black eyed ed - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:50 pm:
Here is an idea, lets freee property taxes for ten years. Open that constitution and move to a progressive tax rate. Then from the windfalls pay our dept down. Why do we have a flat tax?? Could this be the reason for all the other taxes?
- Annonin' - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:51 pm:
“Meetin every day” is the bumper sticker for the day..one reporter did ask about Trump and he used some happy talk to mumbo jumbo his way out of that. Too bad no one asked about the group home scandal exposed last weeks or conditions about the Logan Correctional Center or the absentee ballot scandal.
It can be noted that he has not demonstrated that his $50 million election pay out did not seem to produce a lot of new backers for his big plan to make IL more like West IN.
- Mokenavince - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:52 pm:
As a voted who voted for the guy. I think he should try to Govern. O.W. is right there is never good news. Just sound bites. No one seems to like Madigan, I get it. But if he and Madigan ever talk it would be a step in the right direction.
- Ted - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:53 pm:
OW is exactly right about the Dems’ messaging problems.
Rauner pounds softballs in friendly interviews with morning T.V. “reporters,” most of whom couldn’t find Springfield with a map.
And how are the Democrats countering? Brownie is spinning smart aleck quotes for the five remaining capitol beat reporters and staff is starting to draft their mail plan for the 2018 targets.
Please, please, please Dems…join the modern media age. Madigan won’t (and shouldn’t!!!) go out front. Get someone who can. You have some talent in the Senate chamber. Use it.
Or how about a Dem governor candidate emerging? There is a huge vacuum that needs filling.
- Keyser Soze - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:54 pm:
In comparing 1/16 to 1/08, the chart suggests, at a glance, that Illinois hasn’t fully recovered from the Great Recession. How do other states compare?
- T Sowell - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:57 pm:
Ah yes more money for schools that is the answer. Never mind that Illinois already ranks as the 14th highest state in terms of per public spending. Never mind that the rate of spending has gone up over the past 5 years, never mind that overall state test score have been falling and never mind that the Illinois ACT scores rank near 33rd. But don’t worry money will fix everything.
- Ahoy! - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 1:59 pm:
One might debate the facts of job losses and pension liabilities, but all I know is from my own vantage of being middle class and not employed by government, which I believe represents most of the electorate. When the tax hike was passed, I didn’t see any benefit (because around 95% of it went to other people’s retirement) and when it went down to 3.75%, I got a 1.25% raise.
Of course a representative or senator can try to tell me that i should give up that 1.25% to again go to someone else’s retirement, but I’m not voting for that person. While you might try to tell me that I should because some folks put some bad wording in the Constitution in 1970, but that’s not going to change my mind.
I can see why raising the income tax is hard because it will benefit so few people.
- Federalist - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:00 pm:
What about all the overdue bills not paid by the dead beat state of Illinois.
Rauner forgets to mention that.
I get it. Rauner wants to cut state programs and taxes. He openly ran on that. But not to pay bills you owe is not, or at least did not use to be, a conservative ideal.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:05 pm:
===Of course a representative or senator can try to tell me that i should give up that 1.25% to again go to someone else’s retirement…===
If aim my “ire” at the Illinois Supreme Court, the unanimous rulings on pensions, and… that pesky constitution.
===I should because some folks put some bad wording in the Constitution in 1970…===
There’s a real good reason those pensions are guaranteed. The reason being that they could be taken away at a whim, and while the state has been neglect, that pesky constitution is there to hold accountable what is protected.
That’s why.
It’s not bad language. If I’ve learned anything, unless there are guarantees here in Illinois Government, at some point poachers will come a’callin’.
With respect.
- wordslinger - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:05 pm:
–“We tried a big tax hike in 2011. They did that. Fixed nothing. Job losses accelerated and the pension liability went up.”–
Only two conclusions are possible:
1. The governor is completely ignorant on two issues he has identified as critical priorities.
2. He is baldly lying to the citizens.
Neither possibility is acceptable, especially in light of all the damage he has wrought.
But some of the people, all of the time….
- City Zen - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:08 pm:
==Of course the 2011 tax increase had a positive impact==
Not on retirement and children’s college savings funds. I know my working family has been able to put a bit more in both after 2014.
- Smitty Irving - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:13 pm:
“And I’m not quite sure how term limits will ‘benefit the budget.’ ”
They don’t. If anything, the mess Jerry Brown has cleaned up in his 3rd and 4th gubernatorial terms proves term limits make the budget worse.
- wordslinger - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:14 pm:
=When you’re losing the argument daily when the statistics are on your side… you’re doing it wrong.=
Incompetence, plain and simple.–
I’d add hubris and stupidity.
Actually, the Dems crafted a rapid-fire response to the latest whoppers from the governor.
But, turns out, the two carrier pigeons assigned to deliver the message far and wide were mistaken for turkeys and were eaten last Thursday.
Because the carrier pigeons were so fat from lack of flying, as the Dems never respond to the guvs whoppers.
The Superstars must laugh themselves silly at their good fortune. The other guys can’t hit a beach ball done Broadway. They don’t take the bat off their shoulders.
- SAP - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:35 pm:
Ahoy, that 1.25% goes to a lot more than other people’s retirement. Depending on where you sit on the continuum, that 1.25% kept taxes artificially low, spending artificially high, or both for decades to pay for roads, schools, police protection, environmental protection, social workers, etc.
- City Zen - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:38 pm:
==Why do we have a flat tax?? Could this be the reason for all the other taxes?==
Colorado has a slightly higher flat income tax but much lower property taxes. Then you have states like FL, TN, and TX that have no state income taxes and seem to find a way to pay their bills. Some states have municipal income taxes but also have much lower property and sales taxes overall. A couple of states have progressive taxes but revenue neutral with IL into the 6-figures. So I don’t think you can point to the flat tax as the main problem.
For example, folks often complain about the extremely low k-12 funding from the state. But if you look at total ed funding including local sources (per BLS), Illinois residents spend more per pupil than 3 out of every 4 states, and more than most states with higher GDP’s. So the money’s out there. How’s it’s distributed is another matter.
- Aldyth - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:40 pm:
“We tried a big tax hike in 2011. They did that. Fixed nothing. Job losses accelerated and the pension liability went up.”
A fine example of lies, darn lies, and statistics.
- Whatever - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:56 pm:
Lucky Pierre — a quick look at the link you posted shows that, before the tax increase was enacted and after the tax increase expired, Illinois’ job growth still trailed its neighbors’.
- JS Mill - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 2:57 pm:
=Illinois needs drastic changes to attract more businesses=
You mean changes like paying its’ obligations and paying them on time? That might help “grow” the businesses hat are owed money by the state. Might even “grow” the economy.
=Not on retirement and children’s college savings funds. I know my working family has been able to put a bit more in both after 2014.=
Nice to know your family is working.
Clearly the statement was related to the financial condition of state government, which was better when the state was paying its’ bills.
Now Illinois just sends out IOU’s or ignores the debts altogether.
The working families that lost their jobs as a result of your savings might not agree.
- Smitty Irving - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:00 pm:
City Zen
Texas and Florida don’t need an income tax as they “export” part of their tax burden to non-residents. Texas, energy. Florida, tourists.
- Dog - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:10 pm:
Once again why let the truth stand in the way of a perfectly good lie……….
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:30 pm:
Oswego Willy, Ted and Wordslinger all hit home runs with their critique of the Democrats on communication strategy. Really, Dems. This isn’t that hard. Get a clue.
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:30 pm:
Trump’s win proved that the general public does not check the facts. Rauner knows facts are no longer necessary.
- Mama - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:31 pm:
It appears everything Rauner says is about shaping the public opinion against the Dems. Its always about the next election - - its never about what is in the best interest for the people of IL.
- City Zen - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:32 pm:
==Texas and Florida don’t need an income tax as they “export” part of their tax burden to non-residents. Texas, energy. Florida, tourists.==
What about Tennessee? Don’t tell me their entire state budget rests on Dollywood.
==Nice to know your family is working.==
Thanks! I say that because state union leaders like to think they own that nomenclature, as if no one else works. I like to remind them otherwise. So does my wife. Did I mention she also works?
- Mama - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:33 pm:
Reducing or doing away with property taxes will hurt the public schools local government.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:43 pm:
Just a guess… but Rauner’s trying to get out in front of a lot of stuff because things are going to start hitting the fan once Mendoza gets comfortable in the comptrollers office. Rauner is going to get hit on a near daily basis about the back log of bills and deficit he’s run up since he’s become governor.
- Arthur Andersen - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 3:51 pm:
Speaking of mumbo-jumbo, have we heard comments from Speaker Madigan or his mouthpiece on the HRC “Circular Firing Squad” campaign or the “Win Jill Stein’s Money!” goofy recount?
To the Post, what happened to “pension reform” on the Rauner hit list? Forgotten, folded into another SuperInitiative, or what?
- Smitty Irving - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 4:48 pm:
City Zen
Not entirely sure about TN, but do know eastern TN in the hills / mountains is a booming retirement mecca, and retirees with pensions tend not to make many demands upon the public treasury.
- Steve Schnorf - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 7:05 pm:
Zen,for one thing TN has a much higher sales tax than Illinois
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 9:07 pm:
–I can’t for the life of me figure out why there are so many deniers out there. Illinois needs drastic changes to attract more businesses and the people they need to employ and if Springfield just passes another phony budget instead of reforming Illinois we will continue our decline.–
Do you believe this guy? The “economy” is controlled in Springfield and dependent on the budget.
Tell us how, Smith/Keynes/Friedman.
You yammer on about “economics” all the time, yet you never make an economic argument.
What are you talking about?
For example, the Putin dictatorship — with absolute control over currency, imports/exports, trade agreements, fiscal policy, labor policy, taxes, no political opposition, et. al. — has produced an economy that is in a long-term recession bordering on Depression.
Yet Einsteins like you claim that a governor in the United States with none of those tools, in a free economy and in a democracy can bend the economy to his will.
How’s about an example, or a couple of books that back you up?
Or are you content to be a childish clown?
- Lynn S. - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 9:14 pm:
Steve Schnorf–
One of my sisters lived in TN for a few years, around 2010.
Doesn’t TN also apply the full amount of sales tax to food and medicine, vs. IL that has a discounted sales tax rate for food and medicine?
Thanks for your help!
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 9:34 pm:
–Facts are undeniable. –
Indeed, they are.
Gov. Rauner’s IDES projects, right now, without any alleged “reforms,” that in a few short months more people will be employed in Illinois than before the Great Recession, more than anytime in state history.
And exponentially more people will be employed in Illinois than in Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, Kentucky, Tennessee, blah, blah, blah, harrumph, harrumph.
More people than all the 50 states other than California, Texas, Florida and New York.
You’ve got no game, Stepford Wife.
http://www.ides.illinois.gov/LMI/Pages/Employment_Projections.aspx
- wordslinger - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 9:37 pm:
Pardon, 934 was me.
- City Zen - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 9:56 pm:
==Zen,for one thing TN has a much higher sales tax than Illinois==
True, depending on where you live. TN’s top sales tax rate is 9.75% (including local), which is darn close to what many folks in Cook County pay already. But TN does also tax food at a discounted rate like IL, but it is higher.
==More people than all the 50 states other than California, Texas, Florida and New York==
But only NY (including local sources) spend more per pupil on education than Illinois. Which begs the question…what makes us so different? And can we afford to be?
- wordslinger - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 10:56 pm:
–But only NY (including local sources) spend more per pupil on education than Illinois. Which begs the question…what makes us so different? And can we afford to be?–
Huh? Begs the question: what does your post have to do with the governor’s nonsensical comments on Illinois employment.
Do you have some case you want to make about education funding? Go ahead, it just has nothing to do with the issue.
- wordslinger - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 11:14 pm:
–Oswego Willy, Ted and Wordslinger all hit home runs with their critique of the Democrats on communication strategy. Really, Dems. This isn’t that hard. Get a clue.–
It’s beyond reason.
I’ve made a living in the marketing/advertising business for 30 years.
I cannot identify any good reason why you let a bunch of Rauner partisan lightweights tune you up, day after day, when the facts are on your side.
Silence is assent.
What’s pathetic is, the Superstars are weak. They’re just a lot better than the Dems, for some reason.
I’ve been doing this for a while.
I could sign a crew of pipe-hitting young braniacs who could go medieval on Rauner and the Superstars tukkus and the Turnaround Agenda — facts, demographics, across all platforms — and put them on the run within 20 days.
That ain’t Patton wheeling to Bastogne, but it’s a lot of sting, that will last, in a hurry.
I’m not the only one who could do it. Many could. Many. Rauner and the Superstars are a target begging to get knocked down.
The only ones who can’t see it or do it are Illinois Democrats.
It’s pathetic, and beyond that, it’s sad, because millions are counting on them, but Madigan, Cullerton, Brown and Mapes — they’re too fat and arrogant to make an effort
- Steve Schnorf - Monday, Nov 28, 16 @ 11:22 pm:
Tn has a small discount, I think either a quarter or a half percent. The average sales tax rate in Tn is 9.45%
- Rabid - Tuesday, Nov 29, 16 @ 4:52 am:
Trem limits is a dog whistle for Madigan? The people’s champion is yet to be determined