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Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Talk at you Monday

They’re really saying I love you

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Question of the day

Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Everybody seems so edgy today, including me, so…

* The Question: How about you tell us a story about your favorite pet?

  32 Comments      


ILGOP already calling out the last two southern Dems

Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From WSIL TV

As lawmakers throughout the state gather in Springfield for a special legislative session, a couple of our local representatives get ready to say goodbye.

Unseated in last week’s election, they’ve got just a few weeks left in office.

Democrats John Bradley and Gary Forby are two long time friends getting ready to head out from Springfield, after more than a decade of service. To Forby, his loss was a sign voters want change.

“It did surprise me a little bit you’re never ready for this. But people are ready for change you know. They wanted change. They were ready for change and that’s what the people got and I’m happy for the people,” Forby said.

When John Bradley leaves office this January, southern Illinois will lose its spot as head of the House Revenue and Finance Committee.

* The Illinois Republican Party posted the story to its Facebook page with this note

Voters soundly rejected two top lieutenants of Mike Madigan in deep Southern Illinois this election. The other two Madigan minions from the area, State Rep. Brandon W. Phelps and State Representative Jerry Costello II, have another two years before they can be interviewed for a similar WSILTV story on their departure from Madigan’s legislature.

This ain’t ever gonna end.

  42 Comments      


Take it from me, stopping fake news won’t be easy

Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This probably won’t work

Did Denzel Washington endorse Trump? Was a DNC staffer murdered so he wouldn’t meet with the FBI to testify against Hillary Clinton? Did Trump win the popular vote? Does cannabis cure cancer? The answer to all of these is no.

But you might have seen an article reporting these stories as fact: All are examples of fake news articles that have been shared on Facebook, or jumped to the top of Google’s news feed. […]

A team of students, including two University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign students, working out of HackPrinceton this weekend created FiB, a chrome extension that uses artificial intelligence to analyze and verify content shared on Facebook.

FiB works to combat fake news in two ways. First, the extension combs through a user’s Facebook news feed, verifying status updates, images and links using image recognition, keyword extraction, source verification and a Twitter search (to verify if a screenshot of a tweet is authentic). Based off the AI’s assessment of facts presented in the story, the extension will put a small tag in the corner indicating how factual a story is (such as “Verified” or “Not Verified”), and if the story turns out to be false, the AI will try to locate a more verified source of information on the topic. Second, if someone is about to post content, the extension will use the same verification process to see if someone is about to post unverified information. If so, a user is notified via chatbot and can choose to keep their post or discard it. The Chrome extension is currently available for download, and the project is open source.

Why won’t it work? Because the people who believe fake news stories are either too lazy or ill-informed to install the app or just don’t want to be told that the news they love is fake. Heck, I suspect that many already know the stories are fake and are doing their meanest best to spread the word to hurt the other side.

* I was a victim of this stuff. A tiny little publication that also posted on Facebook made repeated false claims a while ago that I was a former staffer for Speaker Madigan. I told them they were wrong, but didn’t get a response. Even Steve Brown told them they were wrong (not at my behest, by the way). They just kept writing it.

You will recall that Gov. Rauner himself bought into that claim and passed it along to reporters during a press conference. He apparently wanted to believe it so much that he didn’t bother checking.

Rauner spread that fake info when he was cornered by reporters about a column I’d written

When informed that the online Capitol Fax reported a 1.4 percent return on the hypothetical implementation of the “Turnaround Agenda,” Rauner said blogger Rich Miller is “way, way wrong” and a former employee of House Speaker Mike Madigan (D-Chicago).

Except I didn’t use my numbers. I used Rauner’s numbers.

* From my column

I sat down for an interview last week with Gov. Rauner. As with just about every reporter, Rauner blamed House Speaker Michael Madigan for stifling his beloved Turnaround Agenda. The governor said he was “frustrated” with Madigan for saying that his anti-union, pro-business reforms were “unrelated to the budget.”

“For example,” Rauner said, “if we can get business regulatory change so I can recruit manufacturers here and more transportation companies here, and more businesses here, we can generate billions of new revenue without raising tax rates. That’s directly tied to the budget.”

“Billions?” I asked.

“Billions,” he replied, while promising to send me a detailed analysis.

A few days later, his staff e-mailed me a memo that the governor had sent to lawmakers last fall. You can see it yourself at CapitolFax.com/turnaround.

But the memo didn’t really say much of anything about revenues, other than if the governor could get Illinois to “average” levels of unemployment and Gross State Product and if the governor could stop the migration of Illinoisans to other states, his agenda would produce a grand total of $510 million in additional revenues.

That ain’t “billions.” […]

And while $510 million seems like a lot of money, the governor’s projected revenue growth from his Turnaround Agenda would only be a 1.4 percent increase over the last state fiscal year.

Hence, “Gov. 1.4 percent.”

And would it even be that much? Rauner has said he would agree to higher state taxes if legislators agree to his Turnaround Agenda. But as a Republican legislative friend pointed out to me last week, that tax hike will reduce growth, even with all of Rauner’s agenda items.

That link with the Rauner memos is still active, so you can go check it out yourself.

To sum up, the governor used a fake news story to deny the validity of a very real story about numbers generated by his own staff for legislators and then sent to me at his own direction.

By the way, Rauner told reporters back then that he’d release updated economic projections. Never happened.

* I tried and failed to get Facebook to do something about that little fake news operation. Maybe now the company would listen, but I kinda doubt it.

Facebook and Google have to crack down hard on this stuff. And I do mean hard. But they can only do so much if the populace isn’t willing or able to act like citizens instead of lazy-minded, hyper-partisan consumers.

  47 Comments      


The impasse, in two tweets

Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From himself…


* From the left…


  99 Comments      


AFSCME in a trick box

Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The SJ-R on yesterday’s AFSCME informational pickets

Marcus Sherrod of Springfield, a 20-year employee of the Department of Human Services, said he doesn’t think Rauner is interested in bargaining.

“I think he wants to force the hands of state workers and he want to try to demonize us, appearing as though we’re greedy,” he said. “We pay taxes just like anybody else. Rauner is just refusing to acknowledge or recognize ordinary state workers.”

Sherrod said he thinks Rauner’s goal is to bust the union.

Mr. Sherrod is absolutely right about how Rauner is attempting to make AFSCME members look greedy. And he’s also right that the ultimate goal is to either bust the union or vastly weaken it.

* For instance, to most eyes, allowing overtime after 37.5 hours instead of the 40 that Rauner is demanding just doesn’t look good at all. And before you explode in comments, I totally understand the 37.5 hour work week. You don’t get paid for your half-hour lunch. Gotcha. I’m OK with that. But it’s just really tough to explain to non-state people why y’all can start collecting OT at 37.5 instead of 40. And when you’re explaining, you’re losing.

The same goes for allowing volunteers to help out at state sites. There’s probably a good explanation for at least some of the grievances the union has filed over the years about volunteers, but I’d bet real money that the public loves the idea of using volunteers to save taxpayer money. Also, too, Illinoisans volunteer more than most, according to the 2015 Volunteering and Civic Life in America report, which was conveniently highlighted by the governor’s office this week.

Ditto for merit pay. I know first hand how merit pay can be used to reward favorites and punish people who work hard, but aren’t on the boss’ holiday card list. Still, explaining that takes time and effort and money and I’m not sure it’ll work anyway, particularly since the governor is now offering $1,000 bonuses. Back to the SJ-R

[Department of Revenue employee Jim Robson] said the bonus is “kind of making the governor look good. Who doesn’t want $1,000 of merit pay?”

The idea here is to make AFSCME look bad in the public eye. No great intellect needed to see that one.

* Next up, split state workers. Make them choose between paying their mortgages (and getting a thousand bucks) or voting down his last, best and final offer and going on strike.

And that last offer will likely mean gigantic health insurance cost-shifts to employees, which has been mostly lost in the media shuffle. People are going to be hurt.

* AFSCME’s best bet is to convince the courts to force Rauner back to the table. I have no idea if it can succeed, but if it doesn’t another major disruption is about to occur.

  132 Comments      


Look at it another way

Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Charlie Wheeler takes a look at the election and changing demographics

Suburban Democrats were prime targets for Republicans, but none lost. The only GOP gain in the area was a northwest suburban seat vacated by Jack Franks, who chose to run — successfully — for McHenry County board chairman.

One might suspect, correctly, that having President-elect Donald Trump at the top of the ticket was no help to GOP suburban challengers, despite megabucks campaigns. But more significantly, demographic trends have been working against Republicans, as southern and western Cook County towns become home to more African-Americans, and growing numbers of Hispanic and Asian-Americans move into the collars.

* It’s been my contention during numerous arguments since the election that this commonly used analysis looks at it backwards.

As Charlie rightly notes, Trump was surely no help to Republicans in the suburbs. So, by extension, Hillary Clinton was most certainly an advantage for suburban Democrats.

But, if that’s the case, then why didn’t the Democrats pick up any more suburban seats? They went after a bunch and failed everywhere. They also had their absolute top guy (Ald. Marty Quinn) running the race against Rep. Michael McAuliffe, but they had to pull out to save Rep. Sam Yingling’s hide. Yingling won by about 5 points this time around, but won by twice that four years ago. He barely beat his margin from the big Republican wave in 2014.

In a “normal” presidential year, the Democrats would’ve picked up at least some suburban seats and would’ve made the McAuliffe contest (where Clinton won by a significant margin) far more competitive than the 12-point blowout it wound up being and Yingling wouldn’t have been a problem.

The Democrats also won the comptroller’s race, but only by four points. That’s a dozen points off of Hillary Clinton’s margin and ten points below Tammy Duckworth’s. Susana Mendoza also trailed the top of the ticket in suburban Cook and Comptroller Munger won big in DuPage, despite Clinton’s and Duckworth’s wins there.

* Why did this happen?

The best explanation is the bigtime Raunerite money behind the “Fire Madigan 2.0″ program. It helped Republicans win Downstate races, prevented any losses in the suburbs (and put Yingling on the defensive) and kept Munger competitive in what should’ve been a landslide.

  51 Comments      


Clock ticking on pension deal

Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

The clock is ticking for Gov. Bruce Rauner to sign or veto a teacher pension bill with the potential to blow a $215 million hole in the Chicago Public Schools budget and trigger devastating classroom cuts.

On Nov. 7, the teacher pension bill was quietly moved to the governor’s desk, giving the governor 60 days to make a decision on it.

That means Rauner has until Jan. 4 to either sign the bill, veto it or do nothing, in which case the legislation would take effect automatically. […]

When the governor signed off on the deal giving Chicago $215 million for teacher pensions, it was with the unwritten understanding that CPS would get the money — but only if there was an elusive deal to save state pensions. And that’s unlikely to happen until Illinois has a permanent budget.

They can make the pension deal separately. The agreement is the agreement: Pass a pension reform bill and the governor signs the CPS bill. It doesn’t need to get caught up in the rest of the impasse stuff.

The problem is that nobody talked to each other over the summer and fall about possible pension changes. And so here we are still at Square One with the clock ticking.

* More

The political script is virtually identical to what happened last spring with legislation giving Chicago 15 more years to ramp up to a 90 percent funding level for police and fire pensions.

That one was different because nobody really knew what Rauner would do. There was no side deal involved. He vetoed it and the police and fire unions worked the heck out of it. Those two unions have more bipartisan support than just about any others, and they succeeded in picking up some Republicans.

The CTU isn’t as bipartisan, to say the least.

  30 Comments      


Durkin says GOP workers’ comp plan a “starting point,” not an “ultimatum”

Friday, Nov 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I told subscribers about this committee posting by Speaker Madigan yesterday. Here’s Leader Durkin’s response…

Dear Speaker Madigan,

During our Leaders’ meetings this week, we discussed the importance of enacting reforms to create jobs and grow our economy. Employment in Illinois is flat over the past decade, and we continue to lose manufacturing jobs while neighboring states expand. Without reforms that spur economic growth, increase employment, and bring new tax revenue through growth, Illinois will continue to suffer from structural budget deficits year after year.

Governor Rauner presented us with his ideas to create jobs, lower property taxes, and improve our schools. In Wednesday’s Leaders’ meeting, we discussed a specific proposal to lower workers’ compensation costs, understanding that Illinois’s costly, uncompetitive workers’ compensation system is one of the primary reasons that employers have left Illinois or choose not to relocate or expand here. That proposal was introduced in July 2015, following bipartisan discussions earlier that year.

At the conclusion of our Wednesday meeting, we agreed to return with feedback on the various reform proposals discussed during the meeting. Governor Rauner repeatedly made clear that he has no pre-conditions to a bipartisan agreement on a balanced budget with needed reforms, and he specifically requested your input and ideas. A bipartisan agreement to end this budget impasse will only happen with meaningful negotiations between the legislative leaders and the Governor. Our workers’ compensation reform proposal is a starting point for discussion, not an ultimatum.

So I am surprised to learn that – within hours after the conclusion of our Wednesday meeting – you referred the workers’ compensation reform proposal, House Bill 4248, to the House Labor and Commerce Committee for a hearing on Monday, November 28, 2016. I believe it is premature to hold a hearing on the matter; our goal should be to use the legislation as a starting point for discussion at our Leaders’ meeting that day.

The people of Illinois want us to work together to fix Illinois. We want fair hearings on proposals we craft together in a bi-partisan manner. I urge you to return to the negotiating table with suggestions and to work together in good faith to end the budget impasse. We will succeed by working together on a path towards compromise and mutual agreement on a comprehensive balanced budget with reforms.

Sincerely,

Jim Durkin
House Republican Leader

This is actually pretty tame compared to what I thought it might be, particularly since Madigan posted Durkin’s own bill for a hearing without consulting him first. Madigan often claims, after all, that sponsors decide when their bills get called.

But the Republicans are trying to maintain a positive public face these days and look reasonable. So, we get stuff like this.

…Adding… Some commenters are being deliberately obtuse. This bill was introduced last year. It was a “marker” bill. Nothing more. It was the big ask and not the expected result. Negotiations are now under way. Unless you’re trying to undermine those negotiations, you don’t post a hearing on an old bill.

  53 Comments      


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