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Rauner administration rejects key components of Exelon/ComEd bill

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This will get the lobbyists scrambling…

From: Jason Heffley, Policy Advisor for Energy and Environment
To: Richard Goldberg, Chief of Staff
Date: November 21, 2016
Re: Impact of Exelon/ComEd Bill on Energy Prices and Jobs

I understand the leadership of Exelon and ComEd requested a meeting with you tomorrow to advocate for passage of their energy legislation. As you know, this legislation has attracted a wide range of viewpoints and public comments. While our office will continue to work diligently to bring all parties together to reach bipartisan consensus, we will also uphold the governor’s statement of principles with respect to any energy legislation:

    1) We should protect the high-quality and good-paying jobs at the Clinton and Quad Cities nuclear power plants;

    2) We should protect the thousands of other high-quality, good-paying manufacturing jobs around the state, which could be put at risk by saddling job creators with high energy costs;

    3) We should protect working families and seniors on fixed incomes from significant rate increases; and

    4) We should support efforts to conserve energy and lower energy costs for all families and job creators.

Over the last few days, we have become aware of significant public concerns regarding the most recent draft of Exelon/ComEd’s legislation, which passed out of a House committee last week. These concerns include:

    1) The legislation as filed raises energy costs on some of the largest employers in Illinois by more than $100 million over the life of the program, hurting their ability to be competitive and putting jobs at risk. Given our already high workers’ compensation costs and property taxes, rising energy costs would make us even less competitive. Such costs should be mitigated to avoid heavy job losses and lost opportunity across the state.

    2) The legislation as filed skyrockets energy prices for working families and fixed-income seniors through so-called “demand rates” that would dramatically alter the way customers are charged for their energy usage. These are not demand rates, these are insane rates – and they should be rejected.

    3) The legislation as filed does not provide a long-term commitment to keeping the Quad Cities and Clinton nuclear power plants open beyond six years. These communities deserve to know their jobs are not going away in six short years.

We understand that the legislation as passed by the Committee will not be the final legislation. Therefore, we will continue our work to create bipartisan consensus and uphold the governor’s statement of principles.

The administration is apparently hearing a lot of complaints from business owners about the coming rate hikes and are worried (like many are) about this “demand rates” proposal from ComEd.

  24 Comments      


Another must-read from the Trib

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Part 2 of the Tribune’s investigation

On her last night at a Lockport group home, Tina Marie Douglas tossed her few possessions in the trash and warned caregivers that she planned to run away in the morning.

It was not an idle threat. In the last three months, the 48-year-old state ward diagnosed with psychiatric and intellectual disabilities had slipped out of the home eight times and repeatedly run into the street. Her caregivers were considering moving her to a different home, one on a block with less traffic.

But that never happened. Shortly before dawn in October 2013, she broke away again, sprinted down a four-lane state road and was fatally struck by a car.

The Illinois Department of Human Services, which licensed the group home, assigned its inspector general’s office to conduct a comprehensive review.

But a Tribune investigation found the inspector general’s staffers never interviewed a witness, never visited the group home, never left their desks. Instead, they relied on group home employees to help investigate their own business and, based on those findings, determined the home was not at fault.

The Douglas investigation is one of hundreds in which self-policing played a role in determining whether neglect had occurred, including many where group home employees played an even more significant role — not only gathering evidence but drafting the state’s final investigative reports.

These group home employees — dubbed “buddy investigators” by the Office of the Inspector General — handled at least 550 cases, the Tribune determined. And in the vast majority of instances, employees helped clear their own group homes of wrongdoing. […]

The inspector general’s practice of relying on so-called buddy investigators goes back more than a decade, but by the time of Douglas’ death their use was growing, mostly out of desperation by the state.

By 2013, staffing levels had fallen to historic lows at the inspector general’s office. With just 18 investigators statewide, some carried up to 90 open cases, leaving just minutes a day to spend on each, state files show. Some cases languished without action for up to five years.

The “buddy investigations” have now been stopped, thanks to the Tribune. But more resources are most definitely needed.

As before, go read the whole thing.

  20 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

A short Thanksgiving week at City Hall and the Capitol. Which means things could be slow, but also beware the long holiday weekend news dumps.

* The Question: Your predictions for pre-Thanksgiving Illinois-centric news dumps? Snark is not discouraged.

  39 Comments      


The absolute importance of mass transit

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* RTA Chairman Kirk Dillard at the City Club…



* And then there’s this headline from Philadelphia after its recent transit strike

Increased car traffic during SEPTA strike increased air pollution by 400 percent

* Back to Dillard…


  30 Comments      


Rauner administration implements bereavement leave

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* JT writes another letter to state employees…

Dear Colleagues,

We continue to receive many questions regarding the Labor Board’s decision and the implementation of the State’s proposals.

One proposal that can be implemented immediately is bereavement leave. Bereavement leave provides employees with paid leave for the terrible circumstance of attending a funeral for their children or step-children. Surprisingly, previous contracts did not provide for this form of time off, meaning that some employees have previously been forced to use sick or vacation time in such circumstances. Unfortunately, in some cases, employees may not have accrued much sick or vacation time.

AFSCME requested that the State correct this issue by providing for bereavement leave and we did so in our offer. While it is my hope that this provision never impacts any of you, putting it into effect as soon as possible just seems to make the most sense. Therefore, the State plans to implement this proposal immediately.

I am sure that many of you will continue to have questions regarding the State’s proposals. If you have additional concerns, please consult the Labor Relations tab on the Team Illinois website, http://www.illinois.gov/sites/TeamIllinois/LaborRelations. There, you will find the entirety of the State’s final offer to AFSCME, as well as the employee FAQs website. The FAQs website is a terrific source of up to date information, where you can review answers to questions submitted by state employees, as well as submit questions of your own.

Sincerely,
JT
John Terranova
Deputy Director
CMS Office of Labor Relations

Whatever else you can say about them, these Rauner guys ain’t stupid.

  46 Comments      


Your midday mental health break

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My niece Reagan Miller is a wonderful young lady and a senior at Booker T Washington High School in Dallas, Texas. She’s also an incredibly talented singer. Take a couple of minutes and listen

Wow. I think it’s safe to say that Mozart would be proud.

The translation is here. Heh.

  30 Comments      


It’s not as simple as it looks

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Claire Bushey at Crain’s takes a look at several angles on workers’ comp insurance. For instance, the price Illinois and Indiana pay for things like lost fingers

Payments in Illinois diminish across the palm, from $108,584.24 for a thumb down to $31,432.28 for a pinkie. Indiana, meanwhile, prices the same fingers between $46,848 and $14,000.

You can say, like some do, that we pay too much to injured workers for lost limbs, but try voting to cut those reimbursements in the General Assembly. Not easy.

* There’s also the cost of medical procedures, which is often overlooked

“The idea that the value of this finger is more in Illinois than it is in Indiana, the fact that a doctor working on a carpal tunnel injury is going to charge $2,700 in a Medicare case and $7,500 in a workers’ comp case—those things have to be brought into line,” [Greg Baise, president of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association] says.

* However

[In Illinois] Forty-five percent of the money covers medical costs; the rest pays a portion of employees’ wages while they recover or goes toward a permanent disability award. By contrast, payers in Indiana shelled out an estimated $589.2 million, with 73 percent going toward medical costs.

* And then there’s this

Illinois changed its system in 2011, limiting payments for carpal tunnel syndrome and for employees who can still work but whose injuries force them into lower-paying jobs. The heart of the legislation, though, was a 30 percent cut to payments for doctors, hospitals and pharmacies treating those injured on the job. In the end, Illinois saw a 13 percent dip in workers’ comp medical costs between 2010 and 2014, the fourth-largest drop in the country.

Gov. Rauner has proposed yet another 30 percent cut for medical providers except office visits and physical therapy. But the Medical Society’s opposition is the main reason why only one House Republican voted for the last workers’ comp reform bill.

* The Democrats, the trial lawyers and organized labor blame insurance companies for not passing along savings from that 2011 reform

Steve Brown, a spokesman for Michael Madigan, and trial lawyers say insurance companies, not employers, have reaped the benefits from the 2011 changes. Last year 332 insurance companies underwrote workers’ comp policies in Illinois, more than in any other state, collecting $2.83 billion in premiums (226 companies insured themselves). In 2010, insurers reported losses of nearly 11 percent; four years later, they reported the same in profits.

A conspiracy involving 332 insurance companies is possible, but you’d think that somebody, somewhere would try to take advantage of the market and offer lower and still profitable rates.

* And we do much better than Indiana when it comes to workplace safety

Illinois has 2,883 injuries for every 100,000 workers. Indiana has 3,913.

* But

Catherine Kelly, the governor’s spokeswoman, says in an email that the system is now “absorbing costs caused by heart disease, obesity and other non-occupational health issues; we need to follow the 29 other states that have enacted reforms to protect the system from non-work-related costs.”

Except when you talk about causation, it gets so complicated and politically charged that people just turn off their hearing aids.

  20 Comments      


Missing the point

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remember our discussion last week about “fake news”? Well, the problem isn’t just confined to Macedonian websites. Here’s the Belleville News Democrat’s latest editorial entitled “Halt! In the name of the state employee union police!”

So you visited your favorite Illinois state park, saw the upended trash can and garbage strewn across the campground. Being the solid citizen that you are, you cleaned up the litter and righted the can.

A state employee approaches. Will she hand you a certificate of appreciation?

Nope. She reports you to her union for violating her collective bargaining agreement by volunteering. You just took work, and thus food, from the mouth of a state employee with your reckless, unskilled volunteerism. And you did it on the Labor Day holiday, which cost that poor state employee double-time pay.

Sound crazy? Yes, but it’s essentially the way things worked in Illinois. At least it was until last week, when the Illinois Labor Relations Board handed Gov. Bruce Rauner and taxpayers a $3 billion win.

* This is either a deliberate or lazy misreading of a union grievance filed eight years ago…

In 2008, AFSCME filed a grievance over staffing at the Visitor Center at the Illinois Beach State Park. Covering 4,160 acres along Lake Michigan near the Wisconsin border, the park is one of the busiest in the State with over 2 million visitors a year. As staffing was slowly declining at the park, some of the duties normally performed by union employees began being performed by Camp Ground Hosts.

Camp Ground Hosts are campers who, in exchange for a free camping space and a hookup, are allowed to live on the camp ground and help guide other campers. In 2008, they also earned $1 a day. As staffing declined, the Camp Ground hosts began meeting and greeting visitors and answered questions about the park. The Campground Host handbook stated that the campground hosts were expected to live at the campground, welcome other campers in a cheerful and helpful manner, collect camping fees, become familiar with points of interest, set a good example by keeping a neat and clean campsite, and report needed repairs to maintenance staff, as well as other duties.

The union filed a grievance that complained that the use of the campground hosts was eroding bargaining unit work. The grievance was sent to arbitration, and the arbitrator relied on the fact that the Campground hosts were educating the other campers about the “flora, fauna, geography, and geology of the park.” The arbitrator ordered the State to cease and desist from permitting the Campground Hosts to educate the public about the camp where they lived.

* And Illinois isn’t alone. The federal government has the “Antideficiency Act,” which prohibits the government from accepting volunteer services “except in cases of emergency involving the safety of human life or the protection of property.”

The law means that furloughed federal employees can’t volunteer to work during government shutdowns.

Hmm.

* Related…

* Ruling underlines no clear path to AFSCME-Rauner resolution

  17 Comments      


Illinois declares unilateral truce in regional economic battle

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Hinz tried to hold a mini peace summit recently during the Alliance for Regional Development’s fourth annual conference

In a joint interview, [Gov. Bruce Rauner’s top economic development aide, Intersect Illinois CEO Jim Schultz], Indiana Secretary of Commerce Victor Smith and Wisconsin Deputy Development Corporation COO Tricia Brown all pointed to new efforts at cooperation. In fact, while I was interviewing the trio, Schultz asked Smith if he’d be interested in a joint trade mission to next year’s Paris Air Show, the huge convention of the aeronautics industry. Smith said yes.

Then I asked the three if they’d agree to end cross-border job raids.

Smith said Indiana has ended those lovely “Illinoyed” ads—”That campaign was successful”—but added: “We don’t say no to anybody. We recruit companies from all over. That’s our job.” Wisconsin’s Brown turned a thumbs-down, too. “The reality is it’s a competitive environment,” she said. “There’s a role for incentives.”

But Schultz, who earlier had compared the three states to Big Ten football teams that beat the tar out of one another until the bowl games roll around, said he’s sworn off such raiding. “I’ve talked to the governor. Our agreement is we don’t do that,” he said. If a Wisconsin firm calls, Illinois certainly will talk to it, Schultz said. But, in general, luring a company from Zion to Racine or Elkhart to Watseka is “just moving deck chairs. I’m not planning to go into Wisconsin or, for that matter, Indiana.”

So, apparently, Gov. Rauner’s vow to rip the economic guts out of Indiana and go after the state “big time” is no longer on his agenda.

  19 Comments      


Kennedy digs down into the 2016 numbers

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Scott Kennedy takes a look at some election results. Let’s start with Hillary’s Clinton’s Downstate erosion compared to past presidential years

* Trump vote

Outside the Chicagoland area it was a different story. Trump won the 90 counties outside the Chicago media market roughly 57-37, some in historically commanding fashion. Looking at the vote totals by media market what’s strange is that down the middle Trump’s numbers were downright ordinary. In the Rockford, Peoria and Champaign/Springfield/Decatur media markets his vote totals were very similar to Romney 2012 and all lagged Bush 2004 and especially Rauner 2014. Yet in the remaining media markets Trump’s numbers blew away the other Republican presidential candidates this century and either rivaled or surpassed Rauner’s 2014 numbers. Remember, Rauner won the state by 4 points (with very impressive downstate numbers) and Trump lost it by more than 16 so to rival or surpass Rauner’s performance in these areas was no small feat for Trump.

By the numbers

Paducah, St. Louis and the Quad Cities all had hotly contested legislative races.

* Now, let’s compare results. First, Mark Kirk

* Leslie Munger

Kirk just got hammered this time, while Munger did substantially better in the collars and Downstate than Kirk and mostly kept up with Trump. What did her in was erosion in the collars (common in presidential years, except it was worse for Kirk than in the past) and suburban Cook County.

There’s more, so click here and read it all.

  38 Comments      


Shooting details emerge as Davis calls for state of emergency

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

A 16-year-old boy and a 17-year-old girl were ordered held without bail Sunday after being charged with murder in the shooting death of Jovan Wilson, the grandson of U.S. Rep. Danny Davis.

Tariq M. Harris, 16, and Dijae T. Banks, 17, are charged as adults with first-degree murder in an attack that started as a fight over clothes and shoes, police and prosecutors said. The pair were taken into custody Saturday.

Harris, of the 8100 block of South Loomis Boulevard, and Banks, of the 12000 block of South Indiana Avenue, appeared before Cook County Judge James Brown wearing juvenile detention center sweatshirts and with their heads bowed.

Brown ordered both held with no bail in a scathing address.

“The murdering of a young boy over articles of clothing (and) gym shoes demonstrates a total callous disregard over the precious nature of human life,” Brown said. “The citizens of this city need to be protected from these defendants.”

* Sun-Times

In previous weeks [Dijae] Banks had exchanged clothing with [Jovan] Wilson’s 14-year-old brother, including a pair of shoes she lent him in exchange for a pair of pants, Cook County Assistant State’s Attorney Bryan Grissman said at a court hearing Sunday.

Banks and [Tariq] Harris arrived Friday at the back door of the Wilson’s second-story apartment in the 5600 block of South Princeton Avenue with a message: Banks wanted the shoes back.

Wilson’s younger brother told Banks she wasn’t going to get the shoes back until she returned the pants he loaned her.

When Wilson’s brother opened the door slightly, both Harris and Banks forced their way in, at which point Banks pulled a gun and began threatening Wilson’s 16-year-old sister, prosecutors said.

Banks handed the gun to Harris and began to fight the girl.

As they battled, Harris held the gun and slid the safety on and off, Grissman said.

When Javon Wilson tried to separate his sister and Banks, Banks punched him with a closed fist. Wilson punched her back, Grissman said.

Banks then yelled at Harris for allowing the siblings to treat her this way.

“Harris then took a step back, raised the firearm and fired it one time, striking the victim in the neck,” Grissman said.

At the time of the shooting, Wilson’s adult uncle and a 19-year-old family friend were in the home, Grissman said.

* Politico

On the weekend his grandson was shot to death, U.S. Rep. Danny Davis called on state, city and local authorities to declare a “state of emergency” in high crime, low-employment areas of the city.

Davis told POLITICO on Sunday that he does not want a paramilitary state, but a formal declaration that would allow resources to flow quickly into areas of the city that are facing a crisis of violence.

“I would call upon every unit of government to call a state of emergency need for these communities. So yes, I think we need immediate help. We don’t need something that’s going to take five or six years,” Davis said. “There are many inner-city communities throughout Illinois, especially in the Chicago metropolitan area, that need this kind of economic and social development.”

Davis said resources are needed immediately in areas where crime has reached the highest levels since the 1990s. The money would go toward boosting gang intervention, after-school programs, tutoring, job placement, mentor programs and economic development. Davis said some of the communities affected, including Englewood and North Lawndale, have 40 percent unemployment.

“In order to make that happen, the state of Illinois, the governor, would have to make such a determination. Same thing as the city council and the mayor. Individuals like myself can keep pushing,” said the Illinois Democrat.

* Related…

* Close-to-home murders another element of Chicago’s violent year

  42 Comments      


Guzzardi proposes bill to ban pension investments in Trump border wall companies

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From an e-mail sent this morning to House Democrats by Rep. Will Guzzardi (D-Chicago)…

Dear colleagues,

I know that many of us are still reeling from the recent presidential election. I sure am. I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about where to go from here, and I’ve landed on two main thoughts. First, no matter what happened everywhere else, Illinois stayed a solidly blue state, and we should do everything we can to push back against the Trump agenda. I loved this letter from the California legislature, and I think we can do the same.

And second, as the Sun-Times pointed out this weekend, it’s time for Rauner to pick sides. He’s trying to have it both ways. Trying to stay moderate on immigration and other issues while also not alienating his Trump base by actually criticizing the man’s rhetoric, his appointments, etc. We can’t let him do that. We need to make him decide if he’s with Trump and his agenda or if he’s with the people of Illinois.

To those two ends, I have filed HB6628, a bill that would divest all of Illinois’s pension funds and investments from any company that builds a border wall with Mexico. It would be a message from us to the people of this state that if Trump wants to build his wall he can, but our taxpayer dollars aren’t going to support it. Those aren’t our values.

We’ll be having a press conference to announce the bill tomorrow (Tuesday) at 12:30pm at the Thompson Center Blue Room. Any of you who wants to come is more than welcome. (I’ve pasted the press advisory below.)

I’m working with leadership to see that the bill gets moved to the floor for a vote the week after Thanksgiving. I’ll come by to ask for your support once we’re down there, but in the meantime, if you’re interested in co-sponsoring, please let me know. And I’ll also put together another press event in Springfield for those who can’t make tomorrow.

Let me know, hope to see some of you tomorrow, and have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Best,
-Will

Guzzardi was one of the two legislators who didn’t immediately pledge his vote to Speaker Madigan. He told me recently that he did talk to Madigan and that “it went well.” He said he believes the Speaker is “open to us pushing a more ambitious agenda of our own.”

The bill is here. What do you think?

  67 Comments      


What was Schock’s intent?

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gatehouse recently published a story about the Aaron Schock case, which focused on the question of “intent”

“The amount of money isn’t always the determining factor whether a case gets prosecuted or not,” [Lee Smith, a central Illinois defense attorney who served in the U.S. Attorney’s Office several years ago] said. “The issue here is whether it was an honest error as (Schock) is alleging or intentional.

“But in any fraud case, there has to be intent to defraud. And if someone can show they have made an honest mistake, they could be found not guilty.”

Peter Joy, a professor at the Washington University School of Law in St. Louis, agreed.

“First of all, he is presumed innocent but assuming that everything in the charges is something that the government can prove, if they can prove that, then it is a big deal,” he said. “That’s because they have alleged that he has misappropriated, embezzled, stole and set up a scheme to defraud the federal government. […]

“At one point, he claimed many more miles than were on the vehicle that he had. If they are honest mistakes, it’s rare that they always fall in favor of the individual. I would suppose he could under-report various expenses, and if he did, then that would definitely help his defense. But if he always over-claims, that definitely goes along with the government’s theory that he was misappropriating funds.”

* Now comes the AP

The indictment of a 35-year-old disgraced former Republican congressman jolted residents of his central Illinois district, shaken by prosecutors’ claims that Aaron Schock illegally dipped into campaign and government coffers to subsidize a lavish lifestyle, including his Capitol Hill office done up in the style of “Downton Abbey.”

Perhaps more stunning was an allegation found on page 34 of the charging document: Schock’s apparent willingness to pocket thousands of constituents’ dollars by arranging annual Washington tours combined with meet-and-greets. […]

The three-day extravaganza attended by Freiburg and about 50 others in July 2014 included bus rides to the National Zoo and a reception at the Japanese ambassador’s residence. Freiburg paid a $785 “Fly-in Conference Fee” to Schock’s office - meant to cover meals, transportation and other hosting costs - on top of $2,000 to $3,000 for a plane ticket, hotel room and other expenses.

Schock, the once-rising GOP star and prodigious party fundraiser, secretly kept at least $11,000 from that event, the indictment said. […]

Prosecutors say in 2011, Schock set up a Florida bank account under the name of a fictitious company, “Global Travel International,” and instructed staff to deposit that year’s fly-fee money into it. He allegedly kept at least $4,482 from the 2011 fly-in

Oof.

* A sampling of the charges against Schock published by the Pantagraph

Ticket broker: The former congressman is charged with using $10,025 from a political action committee to buy 2014 Super Bowl tickets, later selling them for a $2,000 profit, while claiming the purchase as an allowable fundraising expense. Profits from other Super Bowl and World Series ticket sales were allegedly left off Schock’s income taxes.

Payback of legal fees: Indictments allege that Schock reimbursed the father of a former staffer for $7,500 in legal fees the father paid to defend Schock’s false allegation that the worker had inappropriately accessed the social media account of one of Schock’s friends. Schock then used PAC funds to pay himself back, later representing the charges to federal election officials as “PAC legal fees,” said the indictment. […]

Staff bonuses: A $6,000 bonus to Schock’s executive assistant was allegedly paid with instructions to pass it along to his chief of staff, with whom Schock was living and owed rent money, said charges. Schock also is charged with providing bonuses to House and campaign staff with money derived from false mileage reimbursements. […]

Travel card expenses: Schock is accused of repeatedly embezzling campaign funds to cover his personal expenses, including as much as $7,000 in travel costs after his March 31, 2015 resignation. The Schock For Congress fund paid for Schock’s trip to Dallas for the American Country Music Awards show less than a month after he left office, according to the charges.

  21 Comments      


A weird year, indeed

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My Crain’s Chicago Business column

Gov. Bruce Rauner’s people are crowing these days about more than just their net Election Day gain of six seats in the Illinois House and Senate. But there’s a microscopic ray of hope for the Democrats, too.

First, a little background.

Victory Phones is a Republican polling outfit that has been remarkably accurate here, predicting Rauner’s 2014 5-point margin of victory over incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn when nobody else did. Understandably, the Republicans love that company, and they spent over $400,000 with the pollster since the spring primary.

The firm’s last poll, taken the day before the election, had Hillary Clinton’s 16-point margin of victory exactly right. The pollster was off by just a single point in the U.S. Senate race. And it had Democrat Susana Mendoza leading Republican Comptroller Leslie Munger by 4 points—her final victory margin.

The pollster also tracked Rauner’s favorability rating through most of the campaign. Its poll of 775 likely voters taken Oct. 9-10 showed 36 percent viewed him favorably, while 50 percent viewed him unfavorably.

That’s obviously not good, but Rauner’s numbers have never been spectacular. This is no longer a Republican state, after all, and Rauner has been a controversial character. Back in June, Victory Phones had Rauner’s favorable and unfavorable rating almost even, with 43 percent viewing him favorably and 41 percent viewing him unfavorably.

So why are the Republicans not discouraged by that October poll?

That’s the wrong question. It’s what happened next that gives them reason for some optimism.

The day after that October poll was completed, state Sen. Daniel Biss, D-Evanston, launched a blistering $10 million advertising campaign against Rauner.

Biss formed a federal super PAC funded by unions and wealthy Democrats like J.B. Pritzker and Michael Sacks. His Leading Illinois for Tomorrow PAC kicked off its effort by airing snippets of Donald Trump saying nasty things about women, immigrants and others, repeatedly interspersed with a clip of Rauner saying he would “support the Republican Party’s nominee.”

Another spot, aimed more at audiences downstate where Trump was popular, used a cartoon image of Rauner and Republicans wearing suits “shaking down” Springfield instead of shaking it up, as Rauner had promised. “Springfield’s got real problems, but Rauner and the Republicans are making it worse,” the announcer said.

All told, Biss’ PAC aired seven ads on TV and online, particularly Facebook.

The last time Victory Phones tracked Rauner’s favorables was Oct. 30 through Nov. 3, just five days before Election Day.

The results of the poll of 1,376 respondents?

Click here to read the rest before commenting, please.

  25 Comments      


Vinicky and Riopell are both moving up

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Feder

Amanda Vinicky, who’s been a Springfield-based contributor to WTTW-Channel 11’s “Chicago Tonight” since 2015, will move up to full-time correspondent for the Window to the World Communications’ flagship news program, starting in January. She’ll continue to cover state government and the Illinois General Assembly and serve as a general assignment reporter for the show and its website.

“Amanda’s stellar reporting and her experience covering the statehouse has helped our audiences make sense of the political impasse in Springfield and the enormous challenges facing the state,” executive producer Mary Field said in a statement. “We are delighted to welcome her to our team on a full-time basis.”

Vinicky, a graduate of the University of Illinois, has covered politics and government for the Illinois Public Radio network since 2006.

Bad news for Public Radio, great news for Amanda and WTTW. She has worked hard to position herself for that new job, constantly commuting back and forth between Springfield and Chicago, and I couldn’t be happier for her. She loves Illinois politics, returning here after a brief stint in Iowa. We’ve been the better for it.

* Bernie

Mike Riopell, who has been the Arlington Heights-based Daily Herald’s Springfield presence for six years, begins this week as an editor on the politics team of the Chicago Tribune. Riopell earlier spent four years as a statehouse reporter for Lee Enterprises.

Riopell recently has also been a group editor of several Southern Illinois papers purchased by Paddock publications, owners of the Daily Herald. […]

Riopell and Vinicky were both statehouse interns in 2005 through the Public Affairs Reporting master’s degree program at the University of Illinois Springfield. Good luck to both of them.

Covering all those Daily Herald suburbs from Springfield is one of the toughest jobs at the Statehouse news room. Riopell did it well and the Tribune is lucky to have him.

  10 Comments      


Where’s the plan?

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

On election night, Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan started making his usual post-election calls to his Democratic members asking for their support for his own re-election as speaker. But at least a couple said they’d like to sit down with him before providing a firm answer either way.

Reps. Will Guzzardi and Kelly Cassidy, both liberal Chicago Democrats, confirmed they want Madigan to come up with a plan that, as Guzzardi said, involves more than “just saying no” to Gov. Bruce Rauner.

“I’d like to know what his vision of the next two years is,” Cassidy said. “Doing the same thing over and over again is the definition of insanity, so I want to know what the vision is.” She refused to comment further, saying she preferred to share her thoughts with Madigan himself. But Guzzardi wasn’t quite as reticent.

Right now,” Guzzardi said, “Rauner is the only one with a plan to fix this.” Rauner, of course, endlessly promotes his “Turnaround Agenda” reforms and blames Democrats for blocking him at every turn. He’s the one positioned as a change agent, Guzzardi said, and that, in turn, makes the Democrats look like obstructionists.

“We don’t have an agenda,” Guzzardi complained. The Democratic Party needs to show voters that “we want to change things and let people know what the party is doing for the people of this state.”

Asked about the state party’s aversion to social media and other 21st-century innovations, Guzzardi said it wouldn’t matter much now anyway. “We could hire a social media coordinator, but what would they say?”

“It starts with having a message,” he insisted, saying he has been talking with several other members about building “a platform that we can go fight on.”

Others in Madigan’s caucus are undoubtedly nervous about January’s vote for House speaker. Everyone who represents a district that Rauner won two years ago will be watched closely—and there are a bunch of them, although the number was reduced by five via the election.

There is no doubt that something has changed in the House Democratic caucus.

No actual “revolt” is brewing against the speaker. It’s just that members are worried about something that haunts all politicians: self-preservation. A vote for Madigan for speaker in January is, for many, absolutely guaranteed to cause huge problems for them back home unless this almost two-year impasse is resolved.

Even the least active legislators go to enough events to know what’s on their constituents’ minds. And thanks to unprecedented multimillion-dollar advertising buys in Chicago, St. Louis and other broadcast television markets, a large swath of the public has been overexposed to the pettiness and ugliness of legislative politics for the first time. And about half of those ads were focused mainly on one guy: Madigan.

The last time anyone voted “present” on a roll call for House speaker was 30 years ago this coming January, when Rep. Dick Mautino stuck his neck out. He was dealt with harshly, and Madigan put down a potential revolt a year later when he defeated one of the attempted coup leaders in a primary and defeated yet another plotter in 1992. It’s been mostly smooth sailing ever since.

And it’s not like public vilification is anything new to Madigan. I remember the 1988 campaign in the Kankakee area when appointed Rep. Phil Novak, D-Bradley, ran against Iroquois County Clerk John Kuntz. Novak was hammered on local radio and in the mail for his alleged ties to Madigan. But Novak shrugged it off and went on to win. Madigan just wasn’t as well-known back then and Illinois wasn’t in crisis.

But this year is different. The Republicans turned on the biggest anti-Madigan fire hose they could buy to shift as much blame as possible for this horrific two-year stalemate onto the House speaker. Madigan’s job approval numbers were already very low. Actually, they’ve always been low. But at a time of crisis, people look for a scapegoat and Madigan was handed to the populace by Rauner on an expensive platinum platter.

Nobody will say they are prepared to do it themselves, but plenty of House Democrats are speculating that some of their colleagues could vote “present” when Madigan comes up for re-election in January. That would be the rarest of rare events, and Team Rauner would most definitely do all it could to exploit it to the hilt. After Madigan lost a net of four seats on Nov. 8, any wavering of support by Madigan’s membership would be “proof” that the man was losing his iron grip.

That last sentence is why we saw the Illinois Republican Party pounce so hard on Reps. Brandon Phelps and Jerry Costello last week. They’re stirring the pot.

  26 Comments      


Today’s number: $1,692 per household, per year

Monday, Nov 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

The average [Chicago] family will pay nearly $1,700 more a year to the city and Chicago Public Schools than they did before the mayor took office in 2011 once all of Emanuel’s tax and fee increases take full effect. There’s been a series of property tax hikes. There was a water and sewer rate increase, plus a new tax on top of that. Not to mention a new garbage hauling fee, 911 phone tax hike, vehicle sticker fee increase and a tax on cable television.

Even with all of that, taxpayers may be asked for more money in the coming years. Emanuel’s plans for shoring up long-neglected city worker pension funds will require the city to come up with hundreds of millions of dollars more by the early to mid-2020s.

The full breakdown of the additional taxes and fees is at the link.

  20 Comments      


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