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Today’s number: 13 percent

Tuesday, Jan 10, 2017

* The Guardian drills down

The map of America’s gun violence epidemic can seem overwhelming. There were more than 13,000 gun homicides in the US in 2015, across nearly 3,500 cities and towns. But the toll of this gun violence was not distributed equally.

Half of America’s gun homicides in 2015 were clustered in just 127 cities and towns, according to a new geographic analysis by the Guardian, even though they contain less than a quarter of the nation’s population. […]

Though these neighborhood areas contain just 1.5% of the country’s population, they saw 26% of America’s total gun homicides… People who live in these neighborhood areas face an average gun homicide rate about 400 times higher than the rate across those high-income countries. […]

In 2015, Chicago had the highest total number of gun homicides of any city in America. But the city’s gun homicide rate per person was much lower than St Louis.

Just 13% of census tracts in Chicago saw multiple gun murders in 2015, and these tracts were responsible for 65% of the city’s gun homicides.

The publication also looked at how those homicide clusters lined up with people living below the poverty line, people with high school diplomas and people living in highly segregated communities and found a pretty consistent match. Go check out the whole thing.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - logic not emotion - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 9:36 am:

    Very interesting study. Worth the time to read.

  2. - Anon - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 9:41 am:

    === the clusters line up with people…iving in segregated communities ===

    Chicago has long been notorious as the most racially segregated big city in America.

  3. - RNUG - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 9:51 am:

    Heck of a read. Makes it pretty clear there is no easy or cheap fix.

  4. - Publius - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 9:53 am:

    Poverty is a big factor, we must address poverty in a comprehensive approach. To achieve the American dream you do not wait in a single file line, so no one is cutting in front of you. Poverty programs are meant to help people get to the starting line.

    Tax the millionaires and getneveryone to a good starting point. The money will always cycle back into the hands of the wealthy

  5. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 10:21 am:

    Great journalism.

    I suspect the findings confirm what many of us thought intuitively: gun violence is heavily concentrated among a population subset of young black males in relatively small geographical pockets of extreme poverty. It is not widespread, despite what you hear from the cable screamers and wannabes in print media.

    There’s your at-risk population; there’s your population that Cease Fire was working with before their funding was gutted, first by Emanuel, then by Rauner.

    We’re talking about $5 million that Cease Fire was banking on. That’s with an “M,” not a “B,” in city and state funds. Cease Fire makes a compelling case that the Chicago homicide spike correlates directly to their funding being cut.

    If gun violence in Chicago is such a big issue, how is that pound-foolish decision not front and center in Springfield and Chicago?

    How in the world do Emanuel and Rauner get a pass on this from the Chicago media? How can you keep printing and broadcasting their weasel-word spin on this issue?

  6. - Amalia - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 11:04 am:

    should prompt some very uncomfortable discussions. we know which areas are the greatest problem. must think long term about solving poverty issues. but short term, the current environment where police have lowered their policing level, must come into question. actions have consequences.

  7. - cdog - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 11:16 am:

    Indigenous people on islands, with nothing, maintain a spirit of hope and seem to have the self-control to not kill in their community.

    something to think about.

  8. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 12:17 pm:

    When Trump takes office, it’s likely he will promote Stop-and-Frisk aggressive policing in Chicago.

    I predict when that happens, downstate legislators like Brandon Phelps will trumpet how they need to “protect the rights of gun owners” then sell out the black community in Chicago and Cook County as he did in his concealed carry bill, which has criminal penalties for public transportation carry on CTA buses and trains.

    Meanwhile Phelps and NRA lobbyist Todd Vandermdye are trying to legalize firearm silencers in Illinois as we speak. That’s good for the gun industry corporation profits. The good old boys don’t really care about black folks in Chicago, they only use blacks like Otis McDonald as plaintiffs for lawsuits.

  9. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 1:45 pm:

    Here they’ve identified the at-risk subgroup and where they live.

    These are exactly the people Cease Fire was working with before Emanuel and Rauner took away their money.

    Cease Fire was looking for $5 million — that’s an “M,”, not a “B” — to intervene with the at-risk group.

    They’ve shown compelling evidence that they were being successful, and that the spike in Chicago homicides is directly related to them being put out of business by the mayor and governor.

    If the homicide spike is the big story in Chicago, would any Chicago journalists like to ask Emanuel and Rauner to explain themselves?

  10. - Former Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 8:57 pm:

    Violence in Chicago during Capone reign was nothing compared to this

  11. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 10:13 pm:

    This time, it’s really true. 2016 saw a tremendous spike in homicides, 762 compared to 492 in 2015. That’s when Emanuel and Rauner defunded Cease Fire.

    As recently as 2014, the city had 432 homicides, the lowest since 396 in 1965.

    The homicide rate and number in 2016 is like the bad old days of the 70s, 80s and 90s.

    The records are 970 homicides in 1974, 943 in 1992 and 928 in 1991. Numbers in the 700s and 800s were common from the 70s through the mid-90s, when a steady decline started.

  12. - RNUG - Tuesday, Jan 10, 17 @ 10:58 pm:

    -wordslinger- raises several real good points.

    From the data, it would seem that a combination of restarting Cease Fire and targeted policing using experienced street smart cops would yield the best results at the lowest possible cost.

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