If this was a “Magic 8-Ball”… It would be too cloudy to see the single dice arbitrarily being random to the “turn”, all the while leaking “blue” liquid as its being shook…
That’s the outlook.
To the “question” itself,
Here’s the rub for me. This is the only thing I can see where action, reaction, and a result occurred.
Leader Radogno got close enough with President Cullerton to find a Grand Bargain and but significant heat/pressure on Speaker Madigan with one chamber finding headway, and agreement, to end the hostage taking.
Rauner stepped in, undercut Leader Radogno, actually “spoke” for her caucus, through the Office of the Governor.
If I want to believe that anyone here is close for a good outlook, I need to look past intention sabotage to process.
I’m not ready to do that, but I’m behind President Cullerton’s efforts, and I’m squarely, 100% behind Republican Leader Radogno and her unwavering commitment to get a Grand Compromise.
That’s where I am, show me intentional sabotage is over, then I’m all in.
I think the political situation needs to shift dramatically before a GB is possible. But, that can happen fast.
To me some of the key questions are:
1.Do Republicans decide associatin with Rauner is more toxic than his money is lovely. In this case, perhaps some show independence and vote for a GB.
2.Does the prospect of Eastern, Western, CSU, NEIU, and SIU Carbondale goin belly up (and they will without money soon) move lawmakers to budget? It would seem that there’d be huge political damage to wrecking those institutions.
3. Does Rauner figure that he needs a “win” of some sort and/or decide that he doesn’t want to head into an election cycle without a budget or a single accomplishment.
That grand bargain has as much a chance as Morrie’s wig not fallin off when choked by Jimmy.
- The Real Just Me - Tuesday, Mar 28, 17 @ 3:48 pm:
Outlook bad. As the Governor said earlier today, the Grand Bargain is just duct tape. The Governor knows that he cannot have put the State through almost 3 years of torture to get the incrementalism of the Grand Bargain. The Governor needs something much Grander to warrant the misery he has caused.
What disturbs me about all of the “Grand Bargain is dead” talk coming out of Springfield is the shrugging, whaddaya-gonna-do tone. The vast collateral damage to the state is almost never mentioned. It’s as if they’re talking about a TV show getting canceled, or a sports team’s losing season.
- Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, Mar 28, 17 @ 4:14 pm:
The use of military language like “trench warfare” speaks to the Governor’s mindset. He is not negotiating with fellow citizens. He is at war with an enemy.
The only hope for the state is a revolt among the Senate Republicans. I don’t see that as likely.
The Grand Bargain is dependent upon Senate Republicans moving against Rauner. I wish they would, but do not expect them to do so.
The odds of a grand bargain are similar to where we were on conceal carry a few years ago — nothing was possible until a court issued a ruling scaring the heck out of one side.
The Governor, House and Senate will not do something on their own. Cullerton may be the only one with both the desire and the political power to push his side. Senate Republicans may want a a deal but are terrified of the Gov. who does not want a deal. I have no idea where the Speaker really stands and don’t really care where House Republicans stand.
They all need fear of a court decision to make it happen and unfortunately, I don’t see any basis for a suit that will force anybody’s hand.
I just don’t see any resolution until Rauner leaves office. If somehow he wins another term, that would be four additional years of no deal. He will see it as a mandate to stay the course.
Unless the courts stop employee paychecks or rule entering into contracts without appropriations is illegal, nothing on a full budget until after the 2018 elections when a new governor and hopefully a new speaker are elected. Adding K-12 to the hostage list with the 2018 campaign underway is now off the table.
==A major disaster with lethal results that can be directly laid on the Governor’s doorstep.==
I’ve had exactly the same thoughts. If there are deaths directly attributable to the impasse—and I think it’s inevitable that there will be—Rauner won’t be able to blame Madigan or wave it off with talk of reforms (although he’ll certainly try).
LP, Rauner’s actions in sabotaging any movement in the Senate toward a deal, including threatening to primary GOP senators according to the troncs, speak much louder than his words and the ones he programs for you.
The National Weather Service has issued a severe tornado warning for the State of Illinois. A slow moving tornado with winds in excess of 200 miles per hour is moving towards the State and is expected to hit in the very near future. The tornado is accompanied by severe thunderstorms with rainfall in excess of 12 inches per hour and golf ball to plum size hail. Damage and flooding will be wide spread and severe. Loss of life is expected. The NWS urges residents of low lying areas near streams and rivers to evacuate immediately to higher ground. Residents must take evacuate immediately to secure storm shelters.
Residents are urged to be prepared to fend for themselves for the duration of the storm aftermath. Residents should not expect to receive any help from their local government, police, fire, or any social service agency for the foreseeable future.
Budget no. But the forecast for the state issuing billions in tax free municipal bonds is certain in the near to medium term. The cash burn has got to be close to operating solvency failure. Or in Rauner case insolvence success.
===So the Speaker would approve the Grand Bargain Wordslinger and not wring any more concessions===
One chamber at a time.
Passing it thru the Senate puts tremendous pressure on Speaker Madigan. If you think Madigan deserves the blame and the pressure, the best way to get that squarely on Madigan is to… pass it thru the Senate.
===Just like the Senate passing a budget put tremendous pressure on Speaker Madigan to do nothing until Senator Cullerton proposed a stop gap===
No, the discussion is squarely on the Grand Compromise. Rauner decided to undercut Leader Radogno. You know this because daily you have to be “reminded” what is actually going on. Leader Radogno herself made clear that Rauner doesn’t speak for the Senate Caucus, even as Rauner continues to undercut Leader Radogno and the Grand Bargain.
This is real. Your comments refuse to see truth(?)