“But no reforms are needed. Everything is fine! Just raise taxes.”
A ’straw man argument’ is a common but fallacious form of argumentation based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent’s argument, while refuting an argument that was not advanced by the opponent.
So what does this mean? Higher state tax rates mean more job growth or graduated income taxes translate to higher job growth or giving more incentives translates to higher job growth? This is lame.
- hot chocolate - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:49 am:
For Immediate Release: March 30 2017
Rauner Lauds Job Growth Numbers
Springfield….Today, Governor Bruce Rauner’s administration announced new job creation numbers.
The following quote can be attributed to Deputy Governor Leslie Munger, even though Governor Rauner actually said it.
“Just when everyone thought that things were going really bad in Illinois, I became Governor,” Rauner said. “Only two short years in to a reform minded administration and we’re a net positive in job growth. Just imagine what we can do with 8 years.”
You may rightly dispise Rauner, and with many good reasons, but these facts do not harm him as much as the long standing pols - most definitely Madigan and his minions. The politics in this state have stunk for a long, long time. Rainer has only stunk it up more.
As some commenters have already done, folks are going to grab onto these numbers and use them to support whatever they already think the problem/solution is. I would love to see some analysis that gives us some legitimate answers to “why the difference?”
- Name Withheld - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:56 am:
They seem to have picked a specific time frame to illustrate their point. How did things look during - say 2002-2008 or 2008-2014? How many jobs were lost in the last 2-3 years that would affect net being reported?
Not saying the numbers aren’t bad - because they are. But I would be interested in a better breakdown that showed job gain and loss during narrower time periods so as to better illustrate when the losses occurred.
Manufacturing has gone away, and between offshoring and advances in robotics, a lot of it isn’t coming back. Agriculture has also become more concentrated / mechanized, which has reduced the number of workers. Add in a stronger US dollar, and you will have less exports of both manufactured goods and food stocks.
Like it or not, these days Illinois is as much a service economy as it is anything else. Service economies grow or contract based on the amount of disposable income available to businesses and individuals.
What would about $12B in cash injected into the State economy do? Whatever amount of growth, that is what you would get if the State was just paying it’s bills on time.
And what would about 5% - 10% of the State payroll add3ed into the economy every month do? That is my rough estimate of what AFSCME members are, on average, have cut back / are saving due to the unknown future of a strike or being laid off.
Uncertainty is a bigger job killer than high taxes. Businesses can plan for high taxes; they can’t plan for what they don’t know. More than anything else, we need some certainty in the direction of the State.
Obviously, it has nothing to do with income taxes since we have some of the lowest rates in the Midwest. Could it be property taxes and regulations? Or is Illinois not giving out enough corporate handouts? Is it our dysfunctional government? My belief is that there aren’t enough government handouts to smaller anc midsize businesses (big corporations barely pay any tax in Illinois) coupled with high property taxes and sometimes onerous business regulations and licensing. Having no budget is a big driver too. Our dysfunctional government, even though it appeared to be back on the right track under Quinn’s tax hike, has been under some kind of turmoil ever since Rod and has worsened dramatically under Rauner. It is a failure of leadership to do the right thing over time. Constant squabbling between the Governors and Madigan, and Madigans refusal, even when he had supermajorities, to put in place a permanent income tax hike without “bi-partisan” support. Rauner finally drove this State into the ditch.
It’s infinitely more complex than this, but I continue to believe that a stable, balanced budget is the single-best thing we can do our the state’s economic environment. Sure, room to debate how we do that, not saying we don’t need to do other things, but a financially stable Illinois is a lot more attractive to business.
Whoa Rich! Snapping at your stalwarts - Onarga Willy and RNUG….sometimes da boss is gotta show the troops whose in charge, know what I mean?
- Handle Bar Mustache - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:16 am:
I’m sorry, but Baise and Denzler have limited credibility. Very nice guys, but also deep-in-the-tank partisan loyalists.
Their answers to everything align oh-so-nicely with Bruce Rauner’s turnaround agenda.
What they are selling- I’m not buying. Heard Baise on the radio this morning and he had all kinds of fun facts but his “solutions” - reform workers comp, rinse lather repeat - are stale and unpersuasive.
- Name Withheld - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:18 am:
Those who slough off our manufacturing jobs problem by noting automation and off-shore movement really are missing the point. No one is arguing that there are fewer jobs in manufacturing…the point is that Illinois is losing out to neighboring states for the new ones that ARE being created. A lot of Illinois firms choose to expand out of state–that’s been well documented. And those really are decent, middle class jobs we’re missing. I believe this is a huge problem that simply should not be met with a shoulder shrug and denigration of reforms that could reverse it.
“But no reforms are needed. Everything is fine! Just raise taxes.”
A common denominator in each one of those states is higher income taxes — and progressive tax rates in each of those states save Indiana.
Higher taxes means the state governments can pay their bills, meaning more stability, plus better infrastructure, better funded schools, capital projects that get done etc., all of which make a state more attractive to companies looking to expand and/or move into the state.
To see the roller coaster: data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Peak employment was in 2008 at 6.35M. You know what happened next.
Some milestones for employment:
2004: 5.85M (depth of 9/11 recession)
2010: 5.85M (depth of Great Recession)
Who do we thank for that 500K bump from 2004 to 2008? Blago, Jones and Madigan? Ridiculous. Much larger forces at work.
If we think state government is a force for “creating jobs,” I suggest we lay the foundation for private investment by getting our fiscal house in order and investing in higher ed, vocational ed and infrastructure. Those things are real.
Taxes, I think, have little to do with the collapse of the Illinois economy and almost everything with years of government incompetence and disarray under the last three administrations. No one knows what to expect next and no one is anxious to invest in this environment. Our near neighbor Minnesota is both high tax and left of center in public policy, but it is fairly booming.
Your comment is a complete joke. I grew up working manufacturing jobs through high school and college. My hometown was wiped out when manufacturing jobs left.
My fight and our fight is, in part, to end the complete insanity that favors special interests over people & biz who work in manufacturing. Manufacturers build wealth & a middle class for the state. How anyone looks at what’s happened here and scoffs it off is beyond me.
I take it you saddle up for the other side of that fight.
It’s not like any State keeps all its old jobs and just adds or subtracts a few–there is a lot of churn. I would be curious to know how IL compares to those other states not just on the net number, but how many jobs disappeared (closed or relocated out of state), and how many new jobs appeared.
Maybe that would begin to give some clues about what might be done.
Ratrher than everybody just grabbing a partisan brick to throw, I mean.
So, and I may be reading this wrong, things are so bad here that our total manufacturing jobs are double any of the other two? We may not have gained, but we haven’t lost and the others have a long way to go to catch up. No? I’m not saying we are perfect, it just seems that there are other ways to look at this.
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:59 am:
— “Manufacturing has gone away, and between offshoring and advances in robotics, a lot of it isn’t coming back.” —-
The answers are what Wordslinger said, combined with some serious pushback against public worker union pensions/wages going forward and a national tightening of our borders and a serious E-Verify system with teeth. Madigan and Rauner each fight for part of that agenda and against the rest of it.
===So, and I may be reading this wrong, things are so bad here that our total manufacturing jobs are double any of the other two?===
That’s just population. IL has about twice the population of any of the others, almost 4 times Iowa. So growth would be a better metric I think. And these aren’t manufacturing job numbers, this is all non farm numbers.
couple quick comments 1. those numbers for other states ae wring. Indiana 2017 3,102,700 down from 3,108,300 last year. so they just lost 5,600 jobs. that said the whole number of jobs is a red herring.
if we have 100% employment, but everyone makes 12$ a year we are not successful. If we add jobs for fadeing or outmoded jobs we are not succeeding. so lets consider first income. Il median income is 5% over national median and is growing. IA median inc shrank 7% since 2007 and is 5% below the national median.
so we are losing out of date low pay jobs but we ate gaining higher paying technology jobs…. pushing up il wages and our economy and quality of life.
side pint IMA left off the CPS numbers which show higher employment. but not my point. we may have fewer jobs lighting the gas lamps around town then other states. but electricty is coming and what will those states do in a few years? and how well will they do if they keep driving down wages and spending power just to have somone employed….
–Wouldn’t do much unless the money was coming from out of state. Raising the money with a tax increase just removes $1 from the pocket of one citizen and puts it in the pocket of another.–
Not really. It would raise the money from all citizens over a period of time (especially if bonded) and would pay immediately the relatively small number of contractors who are owed for goods and services already provided.
Not paying your bills ain’t cool, in most leagues.