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Our sorry state

Thursday, Mar 30, 2017

* Ugh…


* More from the IMA…

- Posted by Rich Miller        

53 Comments
  1. - so... - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:41 am:

    But no reforms are needed. Everything is fine! Just raise taxes.


  2. - Magic Dragon - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:42 am:

    The Governor has had two years….two years! He says his priority is job growth…two years and these numbers are still dismal. Governor’s own.


  3. - Not Again - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:43 am:

    I am sure a progressive income tax will fix this!


  4. - @misterjayem - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:45 am:

    “But no reforms are needed. Everything is fine! Just raise taxes.”

    A ’straw man argument’ is a common but fallacious form of argumentation based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent’s argument, while refuting an argument that was not advanced by the opponent.

    – MrJM


  5. - Barrington - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:47 am:

    So what does this mean? Higher state tax rates mean more job growth or graduated income taxes translate to higher job growth or giving more incentives translates to higher job growth? This is lame.


  6. - hot chocolate - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:49 am:

    For Immediate Release: March 30 2017

    Rauner Lauds Job Growth Numbers

    Springfield….Today, Governor Bruce Rauner’s administration announced new job creation numbers.

    The following quote can be attributed to Deputy Governor Leslie Munger, even though Governor Rauner actually said it.

    “Just when everyone thought that things were going really bad in Illinois, I became Governor,” Rauner said. “Only two short years in to a reform minded administration and we’re a net positive in job growth. Just imagine what we can do with 8 years.”


  7. - Denzler - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:50 am:

    For those keeping track, this means that Illinois has create a net 1 job every 2 months for the last 17 years.


  8. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:51 am:

    You may rightly dispise Rauner, and with many good reasons, but these facts do not harm him as much as the long standing pols - most definitely Madigan and his minions. The politics in this state have stunk for a long, long time. Rainer has only stunk it up more.


  9. - A Jack - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:55 am:

    Or… higher taxes could mean that the state could offer higher incentives to move jobs here. The state could also use those taxes to build up infrastructure that those businesses need.

    Illinois just needs the right driver in the driver’s seat.


  10. - Montrose - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:55 am:

    As some commenters have already done, folks are going to grab onto these numbers and use them to support whatever they already think the problem/solution is. I would love to see some analysis that gives us some legitimate answers to “why the difference?”


  11. - Name Withheld - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:56 am:

    They seem to have picked a specific time frame to illustrate their point. How did things look during - say 2002-2008 or 2008-2014? How many jobs were lost in the last 2-3 years that would affect net being reported?

    Not saying the numbers aren’t bad - because they are. But I would be interested in a better breakdown that showed job gain and loss during narrower time periods so as to better illustrate when the losses occurred.


  12. - Sue - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 10:58 am:

    Magic- perhaps you missed that the data has the year 2000 as the Start date. I forgot yea Rauner was Governor since 2000. You folks are all Rabid Rauner haters


  13. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:02 am:

    ===picked a specific time frame to illustrate their point===

    Yep. Previous jobs peak.


  14. - RNUG - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:02 am:

    Manufacturing has gone away, and between offshoring and advances in robotics, a lot of it isn’t coming back. Agriculture has also become more concentrated / mechanized, which has reduced the number of workers. Add in a stronger US dollar, and you will have less exports of both manufactured goods and food stocks.

    Like it or not, these days Illinois is as much a service economy as it is anything else. Service economies grow or contract based on the amount of disposable income available to businesses and individuals.

    What would about $12B in cash injected into the State economy do? Whatever amount of growth, that is what you would get if the State was just paying it’s bills on time.

    And what would about 5% - 10% of the State payroll add3ed into the economy every month do? That is my rough estimate of what AFSCME members are, on average, have cut back / are saving due to the unknown future of a strike or being laid off.

    Uncertainty is a bigger job killer than high taxes. Businesses can plan for high taxes; they can’t plan for what they don’t know. More than anything else, we need some certainty in the direction of the State.


  15. - RNUG - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:04 am:

    == IL added only 100 net jobs … ==

    Subtract the 24 made up jobs for Munger and her flunkies, and the gain was only 76.


  16. - Ratso Rizzo - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:04 am:

    Obviously, it has nothing to do with income taxes since we have some of the lowest rates in the Midwest. Could it be property taxes and regulations? Or is Illinois not giving out enough corporate handouts? Is it our dysfunctional government? My belief is that there aren’t enough government handouts to smaller anc midsize businesses (big corporations barely pay any tax in Illinois) coupled with high property taxes and sometimes onerous business regulations and licensing. Having no budget is a big driver too. Our dysfunctional government, even though it appeared to be back on the right track under Quinn’s tax hike, has been under some kind of turmoil ever since Rod and has worsened dramatically under Rauner. It is a failure of leadership to do the right thing over time. Constant squabbling between the Governors and Madigan, and Madigans refusal, even when he had supermajorities, to put in place a permanent income tax hike without “bi-partisan” support. Rauner finally drove this State into the ditch.


  17. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:05 am:

    ===and her flunkies===

    Enough, already. Most of those people were Topinka staffers. And those folks weren’t flunkies.


  18. - Juice - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:09 am:

    Rich, but taking the peak for Illinois isn’t the same as the peak for other states.

    The numbers aren’t going to look favorable no matter what. But it should either be a month over month comparison, or look at the peaks for each state in 2000/2001 to do an honest comparison.


  19. - Perrid - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:09 am:

    This link has a good graphic showing job growth from year to year of Midwest states. Focus is on Wisconsin but IL is included.Looks like IL did pretty bad 2003-2005, was around the middle after that. http://host.madison.com/wsj/business/job-growth-rankings-wisconsin-middle-of-midwestern-states/html_94b31476-74a1-11e3-9597-0019bb2963f4.html


  20. - Earnest - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:10 am:

    It’s infinitely more complex than this, but I continue to believe that a stable, balanced budget is the single-best thing we can do our the state’s economic environment. Sure, room to debate how we do that, not saying we don’t need to do other things, but a financially stable Illinois is a lot more attractive to business.


  21. - RNUG - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:11 am:

    == Enough, already. ==

    Apologies, both Rich and the other 23. Over emphasized in trying to make a point.


  22. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:13 am:

    Manufacturing has gone away to our neighboring states too.

    Democrats will tolerate job loss of high wage jobs more than crossing powerful special interests in labor and trial lawyers


  23. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:13 am:

    Montrose - @10:55 Spot on.


  24. - Stuff Happens - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:14 am:

    I have no idea what the data would show, but I’d like to see those numbers plotted alongside population numbers.

    If you’re losing a lot of people but not losing jobs, then it sounds like jobs are being created.


  25. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:15 am:

    Whoa Rich! Snapping at your stalwarts - Onarga Willy and RNUG….sometimes da boss is gotta show the troops whose in charge, know what I mean?


  26. - Handle Bar Mustache - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:16 am:

    I’m sorry, but Baise and Denzler have limited credibility. Very nice guys, but also deep-in-the-tank partisan loyalists.

    Their answers to everything align oh-so-nicely with Bruce Rauner’s turnaround agenda.

    What they are selling- I’m not buying. Heard Baise on the radio this morning and he had all kinds of fun facts but his “solutions” - reform workers comp, rinse lather repeat - are stale and unpersuasive.


  27. - Name Withheld - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:18 am:

    ===Yep. Previous jobs peak.===

    Thanks, Rich.


  28. - RNUG - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:20 am:

    == Whoa Rich! … ==

    Rich was right. I forgot that most the other people were long time staffers.


  29. - The Dude Abides - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:26 am:

    Economic uncertainly kills jobs and tax revenue. A progressive income tax system is good for prosperity. See Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota.


  30. - Lucci - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:29 am:

    Kudos to the IMA for pointing this out.

    The manufacturing jobs over the same time period is ugly, and it’s not just because of globalization and automation. Prestige Metals announced they are leaving for Wisconsin this week.

    https://www.illinoispolicy.org/prestige-metals-to-move-from-illinois-to-wisconsin/


  31. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:33 am:

    Those who slough off our manufacturing jobs problem by noting automation and off-shore movement really are missing the point. No one is arguing that there are fewer jobs in manufacturing…the point is that Illinois is losing out to neighboring states for the new ones that ARE being created. A lot of Illinois firms choose to expand out of state–that’s been well documented. And those really are decent, middle class jobs we’re missing. I believe this is a huge problem that simply should not be met with a shoulder shrug and denigration of reforms that could reverse it.


  32. - Nick Name - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:33 am:

    “But no reforms are needed. Everything is fine! Just raise taxes.”

    A common denominator in each one of those states is higher income taxes — and progressive tax rates in each of those states save Indiana.

    Higher taxes means the state governments can pay their bills, meaning more stability, plus better infrastructure, better funded schools, capital projects that get done etc., all of which make a state more attractive to companies looking to expand and/or move into the state.

    But thanks for the straw man.


  33. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:34 am:

    Sorry…no one is arguing that there AREN’T fewer jobs…

    Gotta proofread.


  34. - Handle Bar Mustache - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:35 am:

    Lucci,

    Do you and your IPI friends have a little toast/party every time a company leaves Illinois?

    Heckuva job your boss Bruce Rauner is doing for Illinois. Way to go man.


  35. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:36 am:

    To see the roller coaster: data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

    Peak employment was in 2008 at 6.35M. You know what happened next.

    Some milestones for employment:

    2000: 6.2M

    2004: 5.85M (depth of 9/11 recession)

    2008: 6.35M

    2010: 5.85M (depth of Great Recession)

    2017: 6.2M

    Who do we thank for that 500K bump from 2004 to 2008? Blago, Jones and Madigan? Ridiculous. Much larger forces at work.

    If we think state government is a force for “creating jobs,” I suggest we lay the foundation for private investment by getting our fiscal house in order and investing in higher ed, vocational ed and infrastructure. Those things are real.


  36. - Skirmisher - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:43 am:

    Taxes, I think, have little to do with the collapse of the Illinois economy and almost everything with years of government incompetence and disarray under the last three administrations. No one knows what to expect next and no one is anxious to invest in this environment. Our near neighbor Minnesota is both high tax and left of center in public policy, but it is fairly booming.


  37. - Lucci - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:44 am:

    Handle Bar Mustache,

    Your comment is a complete joke. I grew up working manufacturing jobs through high school and college. My hometown was wiped out when manufacturing jobs left.

    My fight and our fight is, in part, to end the complete insanity that favors special interests over people & biz who work in manufacturing. Manufacturers build wealth & a middle class for the state. How anyone looks at what’s happened here and scoffs it off is beyond me.

    I take it you saddle up for the other side of that fight.


  38. - Harry - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:56 am:

    It’s not like any State keeps all its old jobs and just adds or subtracts a few–there is a lot of churn. I would be curious to know how IL compares to those other states not just on the net number, but how many jobs disappeared (closed or relocated out of state), and how many new jobs appeared.

    Maybe that would begin to give some clues about what might be done.

    Ratrher than everybody just grabbing a partisan brick to throw, I mean.


  39. - ash - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:58 am:

    So, and I may be reading this wrong, things are so bad here that our total manufacturing jobs are double any of the other two? We may not have gained, but we haven’t lost and the others have a long way to go to catch up. No? I’m not saying we are perfect, it just seems that there are other ways to look at this.


  40. - lake county democrat - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 11:59 am:

    — “Manufacturing has gone away, and between offshoring and advances in robotics, a lot of it isn’t coming back.” —-

    The answers are what Wordslinger said, combined with some serious pushback against public worker union pensions/wages going forward and a national tightening of our borders and a serious E-Verify system with teeth. Madigan and Rauner each fight for part of that agenda and against the rest of it.


  41. - Perrid - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 12:04 pm:

    ===So, and I may be reading this wrong, things are so bad here that our total manufacturing jobs are double any of the other two?===
    That’s just population. IL has about twice the population of any of the others, almost 4 times Iowa. So growth would be a better metric I think. And these aren’t manufacturing job numbers, this is all non farm numbers.


  42. - Lucci - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 12:13 pm:

    Ash,

    That’s not the correct reading.

    Illinois is the largest state in the Midwest but has fewer mfg jobs than Michigan and Ohio. Michigan passed us about 2 years ago.

    Indiana is half our size but has about 9% fewer mfg jobs. Wisconsin is also half our size but has about 20% fewer mfg jobs.

    It’s great that IL’s economy has a strong presence in service sector jobs. It’s terrible that labor-intensive manufacturers won’t invest here.

    Illinois taxes & regs skew heavily against manufacturers and blue collar job sectors in ways that don’t matter too much for white collar job sectors.

    https://www.bls.gov/eag/


  43. - Ghost - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 12:33 pm:

    couple quick comments 1. those numbers for other states ae wring. Indiana 2017 3,102,700 down from 3,108,300 last year. so they just lost 5,600 jobs. that said the whole number of jobs is a red herring.

    if we have 100% employment, but everyone makes 12$ a year we are not successful. If we add jobs for fadeing or outmoded jobs we are not succeeding. so lets consider first income. Il median income is 5% over national median and is growing. IA median inc shrank 7% since 2007 and is 5% below the national median.

    Il is losing low paying outdated manufacturing jobs. many of which will be replaced by robots over the next 5 years. Il is gaining high tech jobs https://www.google.com/amp/www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/hub/chi-iin-illinois-high-tech-businesses-bsi-hub-story,amp.html

    so we are losing out of date low pay jobs but we ate gaining higher paying technology jobs…. pushing up il wages and our economy and quality of life.

    side pint IMA left off the CPS numbers which show higher employment. but not my point. we may have fewer jobs lighting the gas lamps around town then other states. but electricty is coming and what will those states do in a few years? and how well will they do if they keep driving down wages and spending power just to have somone employed….


  44. - Ghost - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 12:33 pm:

    oops forogt the stats link http://www.deptofnumbers.com


  45. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 12:40 pm:

    Mr JayEm please tell us about all of the reforms the Democrats and Speaker Madigan are proposing to help stimulate the high wage manufacturing sector in Illinois


  46. - City Zen - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 12:40 pm:

    ==And what would about 5% - 10% of the State payroll added into the economy every month do?==

    But where’s the money coming from? If it’s from a tax hike, it’s a zero sum game. Folks on state payroll spend more and everyone else spends less.


  47. - City Zen - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 12:43 pm:

    ==A progressive income tax system is good for prosperity. See Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota.==

    Each of those states taxes retirement income. Illinois does not.


  48. - Lucci - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 1:12 pm:

    Ghost,

    The same CPS numbers have Illinois down 170,000 compared to before the Great Recession.

    IN, WI, MO, IA all up


  49. - ash - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 2:19 pm:

    Thanks for the input — I was seriously curious! Lucci… is that Michael Lucci? If so, I can put things into perspective.


  50. - Keyser Soze - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 2:31 pm:

    Manufacturing has gone away. Yes, it has. Apparently, to Indians, Iowa, Missouri and Wisconsin. We can probably add Kentucky and Michigan to the list. It is what it is, a sad commentary on this state.


  51. - CapnCrunch - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 3:36 pm:

    “What would about $12B in cash injected into the State economy do? Whatever amount of growth, that is what you would get if the State was just paying it’s bills on time.”

    Wouldn’t do much unless the money was coming from out of state. Raising the money with a tax increase just removes $1 from the pocket of one citizen and puts it in the pocket of another.


  52. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 4:17 pm:

    –Wouldn’t do much unless the money was coming from out of state. Raising the money with a tax increase just removes $1 from the pocket of one citizen and puts it in the pocket of another.–

    Not really. It would raise the money from all citizens over a period of time (especially if bonded) and would pay immediately the relatively small number of contractors who are owed for goods and services already provided.

    Not paying your bills ain’t cool, in most leagues.


  53. - Chicago 20 - Friday, Mar 31, 17 @ 7:28 am:

    What or who is the source of the IMA’s information?
    I cannot find any corroboration of the IMA’s numbers.


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