* OK, let’s try this again, shall we? I published and then removed a post about an Illinois Supreme Court action today. I thought it was a different case, but I checked with AFSCME and the attorney general’s office too late. There are actually two AFSCME cases out there and the one the Supremes acted on today is the case to halt payroll for state workers appealed by the attorney general and NOT the case about whether the governor can impose his terms on AFSCME. Sorry about that. Too many lawsuits!
Anyway, here’s the order again…
SUPREME COURT OF ILLINOIS COURT CONVENED AT 10:30 A.M., MONDAY, MARCH 20, 2017 THE FOLLOWING ANNOUNCEMENTS WERE MADE:
CIVIL DOCKET
No. 121984 - The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, AFL-CIO, Council 31, et al., appellees, v. Bruce Rauner, Governor of the State of Illinois, et al., etc. (People State of Illinois, appellant).
Motion by appellant for direct appeal to this Court pursuant to Supreme Court Rule 302(b). Motion denied.
Order entered by the Court.
Again, this is the case that Attorney General Lisa Madigan tried to directly appeal from St. Clair County regarding paying state employees without an appropriation. So, it’s back to the appellate level for her.
*** UPDATE *** AFSCME…
Today the Illinois Supreme Court denied the Attorney General’s motion for direct appeal of a Circuit Court Order that ensures state employee payroll continues even in the absence of an enacted state budget. AFSCME and other unions that represent state workers secured that order and opposed the motion for direct appeal.
We believe the standard appeals process should be followed. Dissolving the order would only worsen the uncertainty that the lack of a budget is inflicting on our state. Despite all the chaos caused by Governor Rauner, the people of Illinois have been able to rely on state workers to be there, providing important public services.
In the absence of a budget, the order ensuring state workers are paid is only a temporary measure keeping Illinois from spiraling further downward. It’s past time for Governor Rauner to stop holding the budget hostage in pursuit of his own ideological agenda. He should do his job and work constructively with the General Assembly toward a budget plan that is balanced and fair.
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Question of the day
Monday, Mar 20, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* He announced his candidacy for governor today, so it’s his turn in the barrel…
* The Question: Your own caption?
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* Press release…
Bills for consultants and technology contracts for computer software have helped deplete a fund created for the relief of providers of health care services through Illinois’ financially stressed Medicaid program, State Comptroller Susana Mendoza announced Monday.
Doctors and other health care providers around Illinois are waiting six months to a year or more to get paid because the state has not had a balanced budget in more than two years. This fund, as its name suggests, is designed to send relief to health care providers, Comptroller Mendoza said.
“Where are this administration’s priorities?” Comptroller Mendoza said. “These funds are supposed to be for critical healthcare services. There is a time and a place for technology upgrades, but our state is in the midst of the biggest financial crisis in its history and we simply cannot put consultants and new computers ahead of vulnerable people.”
The state’s Medicaid backlog now sits at approximately $3.5 billion, a major component of the overall bill backlog that now approaches $13 billion. Because those bills are paid late, taxpayers also must pay an additional $2 million a month of late payment interest penalties.
In just over two years, Governor Bruce Rauner’s administration has spent an estimated $112 million in Healthcare Provider Relief Funds on various consulting and management fees and contracts for computer software instead of direct payments to providers according to the reports filed with the Office of the Illinois Comptroller.
A single consulting firm – Deloitte Consulting LLP – has received $27.6 million in consulting fees from the Healthcare Provider Relief Fund between January 2015 and March 2017. The fees are associated with technology initiatives at the Department of Healthcare and Family Services and are part of over $350 million spent by DHFS overall on consulting and software costs since Governor Rauner took office. Whether those initiatives had successful outcomes has not yet been fully established.
The new report comes on the heels of findings indicating the Rauner Administration has budgeted nearly $100 million in additional funding for its Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) program, an initiative overseen by the Governor’s newly created Department of Innovation Technology, which is directed to receive $1.3 billion in funding in FY2018 according to budget documents.
Comptroller Mendoza has put the brakes on $27 million in a fund being used for ERP spending pending answers from the administration on the program’s costs, progress and results to date.
Comptroller Mendoza announced the findings of her staff’s research at a speech at the City Club of Chicago. She noted her commitment to upgrading technology in government, citing her performance as City Clerk of Chicago, where she shifted more than 1.3 million Chicago City Vehicle Sticker customers from a seasonal sales program to year-round sales, bringing in more revenue for the city at lower cost to taxpayers and eliminating long lines for drivers.
“I didn’t get a blank check for technology upgrades from the City Council,” Comptroller Mendoza said. “I needed to provide transparency, accountability, and results and so should the Governor. The days of the Comptroller’s office handing out blank checks for the Governor’s pet projects are over. I am going to be the check and balance the Constitution designed this office to be.”
Mendoza also claimed at the City Club today that “days before I took office, my predecessor transferred $71 million from the General Revenue Fund… into funds used to pay, in part, the ERP.”
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the governor’s office…
Comptroller Mendoza will do anything to distract from the fact that she used taxpayer dollars to buy herself an SUV while cutting funding to human services.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Oof…
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Mendoza under fire yet again by Team Rauner
Monday, Mar 20, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Comptroller Susana Mendoza is speaking to the City Club today, and the Tribune has a little primer about her battle with Gov. Bruce Rauner. From that piece…
That’s resulted in multiple attacks from Rauner over how Mendoza has prioritized payments during the impasse. Rauner first raised concerns over how much money the comptroller was setting aside for so-called hardship payments to social service providers within the Department of Aging. Those are payments that get rushed to businesses on the verge of closing or missing payroll because the state is so far behind in paying its bills. The Rauner administration said Mendoza cut that fund to $7 million a month from $20 million a month under Munger, putting groups that care for the elderly at risk.
Mendoza shot back that Rauner was cherry-picking issues in an effort to make her look bad, saying there was simply less money to go around as the state is coming out of a time of year where tax receipts are historically low so there is not as much cash on hand. Mendoza said she has requested help from the governor’s office on identifying groups who need expedited payments but instead received a letter from the administration noting it was Mendoza’s duty to decide how spending is prioritized.
* The Rauner administration just put out this press release…
The Rauner Administration today called on Comptroller Susana Mendoza to reverse her disturbing decision to cut payments to social service organizations serving our state’s most vulnerable residents.
“Hardship payments” are high-priority payments that executive branch agencies routinely send to the Office of the Comptroller to ensure services to our most vulnerable continue. At the Department on Aging, for example, these hardship payments are a lifeline for Community Care Program providers serving elderly populations. As reported today by the Chicago Tribune, while former Comptroller Leslie Munger had allowed the Department on Aging to pay $20 million in hardship payments every month, Comptroller Mendoza has reduced that allotment to $7 million, jeopardizing services.
In a letter to Comptroller Mendoza’s office, Department on Aging Director Jean Bohnoff wrote, “We once again urge the Comptroller to reverse the recent reductions in hardship allotments and increase them to at least $20 million per month to help us avert a crisis in all regions of the State by doing what we can to keep our provider network afloat.”
* From that letter to the comptroller…
In conversations with my staff, you informed us that hardship request would only be considered for those providers who could supply both a letter from their bank stating that they no longer had access to credit and a separate letter stating what the hardship request would be used for. Considering that none of the Department’s providers have been paid for services to non-Medicaid clients for all of FY2017, and many of them are struggling to get by on the meager hardship payments that have been released, I feel that this request would be unduly burdensome when they are losing staff and having to withhold payments to their staff, their vendors, and even the State in the form of payroll and other taxes. Furthermore, the decision to only pay “non-current” vouchers may force many smaller providers, who have been increasingly turning to the Department for help, to close their doors and stop serving some of the State’s most vulnerable citizens. That, in turn, would end up with many seniors being forced to leave their homes prematurely and enter nursing homes, imposing an even greater cost on the State.
Indicative of the plight of these small to medium providers is the letter that you recently received from one of our largest providers—Community Care Systems, Inc. That letter laid out their request for $4.8 million in on-going monthly hardship assistance in order for them to continue to operate in all areas of the State and meet their payroll needs. With such a large provider struggling to meet current payrolls, just think about how smaller providers are struggling more with multiple missed payrolls.
* The governor’s office is right that they requested money for Community Care Systems, Inc. What they don’t mention above is that an earlier letter sent by the same state agency director [click here] claimed the organization could go out of business if it wasn’t paid immediately. That letter was sent on February 28th - three weeks ago. It’s still in business.
The governor appointed the owner of that provider to the chairmanship of the state’s Procurement Policy Board back in 2015. He also owns the popular Route 66 Hotel & Conference Center just south of Springfield in Southern View. The late Judy Baar Topinka kicked off her comptroller’s reelection campaign in the hotel’s parking lot back in 2014.
* Back to today’s Tribune story…
The goal is to now extend that [anti-Madigan] branding to Mendoza, said a Republican operative who dismissed the notion that infighting between the two offices could reflect badly on both the comptroller and the governor given the delicate nature of running a state that’s gone without a full budget since July 2015.
“As opposed to when Munger was there, there is more chaos that can be blamed on (Mendoza), because these things weren’t happening prior to her coming into office,” the operative said. “I think people are very smart and astute and they know it’s not a coincidence that the person Madigan recruited for the office is pulling the strings. That’s a very believable argument for people, whether it’s true or not.” [Emphasis added.]
If they weren’t playing these obvious games, it would be a whole lot easier to pile on Mendoza. Just sayin…
* You can watch Mendoza’s City Club address by clicking here.
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* Chicago Crusader…
Tensions are escalating at Chicago State University, where sources tell the Chicago Crusader that Gov. Bruce Rauner is getting pushback from some officials as he seeks to make former CPS chief, Paul Vallas, president of the university. […]
Sources told the Crusader that on March 3, Rauner’s Education Secretary, Beth Purvis, called a meeting with Board of Trustees chairman Marshall Hatch and Tony Anderson. Anderson is board chairman of Perspectives Charter Schools and serves on Rauner’s newly-created eight-member advisory council at CSU.
Rauner was not at the meeting, but sources told the Crusader that Purvis told Hatch and Anderson that Rauner wanted Vallas to be the president to replace Thomas Calhoun, who abruptly resigned last September under mysterious circumstances.
Sources told the Crusader that if Rauner’s request isn’t met, he will not secure additional funding to help solve the school’s financial woes and withdraw his support. The Board of Trustees would also risk losing Vallas—an important member who gained praise when he served as CEO of Chicago Public Schools from 1995 to 2001. At a time when CPS was financially bankrupt, Vallas was credited with keeping the school system afloat and boosting academic achievement among the district’s minority students. […]
Sources said Rauner’s plan to get Vallas as president did not sit well with Hatch, who has served on the Board of Trustees since 2015. Another board member, Nikki M. Zollar, who has served on the board since 2013, said she said “no” when she was called about Rauner’s request.
* Rauner administration response…
“First, any notion of threatening future state funding is entirely false. Second, the Governor’s Office has been in regular communications with CSU leaders about potential university leadership candidates, including Paul Vallas, to work towards a turnaround of this university in crisis.”
* Mary Mitchell followed up…
Purvis acknowledged the meeting with Hatch, Anderson and Vallas but denied putting pressure on the two board members to get the votes needed for Vallas to be president.
“There was a conversation about how do we bring the urgency so we can bring more resources to the university,” she said. “There was absolutely no threat.” […]
“I don’t understand his purpose,” Zollar said. “I was shocked that he was going to be on the board. And I was even more shocked that the governor wanted him to be the chairman of the board.
“Paul himself have said in many meetings, ‘I want to be the president of the university.’ I do think he has all good intentions, but I wouldn’t be able to support the idea of Mr. Vallas being the president of CSU because he doesn’t have the requisite background in higher education.
Vallas has a masters degree from WIU.
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Opioid overdose deaths are skyrocketing
Monday, Mar 20, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the latest edition of the Annals of Surgery, which has been published since 1885…
We are running out of ways to emphasize how dire the opioid overdose crisis has become. In 2015, United States drug overdose deaths exceeded 50,000; 30,000 involved opioids. There were more deaths from opioid overdose than not only from motor vehicle accidents, but also than from HIV/AIDS at the peak of the epidemic in 1995.
The role of surgeons is important for 2 reasons. First, we are likely to encounter many patients on chronic opioids. Older estimates suggest 5% of the general population use opioids chronically. Cron et al found that patients seeing surgeons may have significantly higher rates of use, with 21% of general surgery patients at the University of Michigan Medical Center using opioids at home prior to surgery.
Second, emerging evidence suggests that surgeons are unwittingly enablers of addiction, abuse, and overdosage. Waljee et al5 cite administrative data suggesting that 3% to 10% of opioid-naive patients who receive narcotic prescriptions for low-risk surgery continue to take narcotics up to a year later. Moreover, the vast majority of prescription opiate abusers receive the drugs they use through diversion, most often from family members who have excess pills. And, as Hill et al document, surgeons frequently supply a large excess of pills, with 72% of narcotics prescribed for 5 outpatient procedures going unused. One hundred seventeen of 127 patients they tracked had excess pills; three-quarters retained the pills instead of disposing them. Cauley et al also found, in data from the National Inpatient Sample, that rates of postoperative opioid overdosage among patients undergoing inpatient surgery doubled over the last decade. Surgeons are proving to likely be a significant source of the opioid supply fueling the current epidemic.
* One way to address the problem…
In 2010, however, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency issued regulations permitting electronic prescribing for controlled substances.11 Such systems have numerous advantages: they prevent duplicate and forged prescriptions by using 2-factor authentication; reduce dosing errors; cross-reference prescription monitoring program databases; and simplify the prescription process for doctors and patients. Electronic prescribing would make it far easier for surgeons to write smaller prescriptions that meet the needs of 80% of patients, or even 50%, knowing they could remotely order an additional supply if a patient needed it.
The technology is widely available, but few doctors use it. Although 81% of pharmacies are enabled to receive computerized opioid prescriptions; more than 90% of physicians have electronic medical record systems; and most can be enabled for controlled substances—only 8% of physicians are in practices that have enabled that capability and use it.
Doing so is clearly feasible. In March, 2016, New York promulgated stringent opioid prescription requirements, including mandatory use of electronic prescriptions. By then, half of the state’s doctors were already prescribing controlled substances electronically.
* Related…
* Opioid epidemic: Another drug war failure: Pot, in fact, appears to be saving lives. A 2014 study published in JAMA Internal Medicine found that states allowing medical marijuana had 25 percent fewer deaths from prescription drug overdoses than states forbidding it… Crackdowns have other unhealthy side effects. “When the police shut down a local pill mill, they rarely identify the users and help them get treatment, and heroin and fentanyl dealers are quick to move in to exploit the new business opportunity,” writes New York University professor Mark A.R. Kleiman in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs. “In 2014, deaths from overdosing on prescription opioids fell, but deaths from fentanyl overdoses almost doubled.”
* Hearing continued for McHenry doctor accused of overprescribing pain pills
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Biss takes on the “Madigan question”
Monday, Mar 20, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I think the main takeaway from today’s announcement by Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Evanston) that he’s running for governor is this quote…
We have a system that listens to billionaires and machine politicians.
That’s not only a jab at Gov. Rauner and Speaker Madigan, but also at Democrats like JB Pritzker and Chris Kennedy.
* If you saw the update below, you know that the Illinois Republican Party called Biss “the North Shore branch of the Madigan machine,” this morning. The party also claimed that Biss is a “willing Mike Madigan accomplice who would give the Governor’s office back to the Chicago machine.”
Biss talked about Madigan several times during his Facebook Live event, and had this to say to someone who asked how the state could be rid of the longtime House Speaker…
I’ve been clear for a long time that Madigan’s been in for too long.
He added that he introduced legislation years ago to limit leader terms, before it became so popular.
* He also said that this fight was about lots more than a personality conflict and said…
The problems we face in Illinois are not about a person, they’re about a broken system.
Overall, I thought Biss was more animated and less professorial than I’ve seen him before. He also talked about making the wealthy pay their fair share and promised to protect important social programs. And he called on the governor to speak out against President Trump on things like immigration, whom he said should be resisted “at every turn.”
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* You’ll recall that Gov. Rauner asked the Illinois Supreme Court Friday to take his appeal of a case he lost against AFSCME...
The administration of Gov. Bruce Rauner is asking the state Supreme Court to rule on whether it can impose its contract terms on the union representing some 38,000 state employees.
In a filing late Friday afternoon, the administration is asking the state’s high court to immediately consider the case, rather than wait for the 4th District Appellate Court to rule first, a process the administration said could take months.
“The delay of waiting for the Fourth Circuit adjudication will impose enormous costs,” the administration said in its filing.
Those costs, it said, include $30 million to $40 million a month in expenses to the state just from being unable to impose health insurance cost savings on members of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.
Rauner’s general counsel Dennis Murashko said in a statement the state and union went through 67 days of negotiations before the state presented its last, best and final offer.
* Here was AFSCME’s response on Friday…
Instead of wasting more time and money in the courts, Governor Rauner should simply do his job and negotiate with our union. State workers are willing to do their part, but Bruce Rauner is so blinded by his anti-union animosity that he refuses to compromise.
Contrary to the misleading statements from the governor’s office, no other union has accepted Rauner’s extreme demands that would hike health costs by 100%, freeze wages for four years and remove safeguards against irresponsible privatization schemes.
Finding that AFSCME has a “reasonable likelihood” of prevailing on appeal, the 4th District Appellate Court blocked Rauner from rushing to impose those demands. Since the governor continues to choose confrontation over compromise, we are prepared to make our case before the Supreme Court.
* This morning, the governor’s office sent over a somewhat odd response to AFSCME. Here’s Eleni Demertzis…
We are delighted that AFSCME is ready to resolve the impasse issue in the Supreme Court and hope the Court does so without delay.
Huh?
* I sent it over to AFSCME’s spokesman for comment…
No clue what she’s talking about. We said instead of wasting time and money in the courts, Governor Rauner should do his job and negotiate with our union.
*** UPDATE *** More from AFSCME…
Typical of its tendency to misinform, the governor’s office is making claims it knows are untrue about AFSCME’s statement on Friday regarding our appeal of the Illinois Labor Relations Board ruling. That statement is below. To clarify the last sentence, we are prepared to make our case before the Supreme Court that normal judicial procedures should be followed, with the Appellate Court review proceeding as scheduled.
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Same day registration increases turnout here
Monday, Mar 20, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Nonprofit Vote and the US Elections Project have released a new study of the impact of same day voter registration (SDR). Here’s the Illinois data…
The newest adopters of SDR, Connecticut and Illinois, were among the top four turnout increase states between 2012 and 2016 – 4.1% points and 4.0% points respectively. New adopters should continue to see the participation benefits as research suggests states implementing SDR should over time expect a turnout increase closer to 5-7% points. […]
Wisconsin was the only SDR state with a large drop in voter turnout – 3.1% points, its lowest presidential turnout since 2000. This may be associated with recent implementation of a restrictive voter ID law.
According to the study, Illinois’ voter turnout last November as a percentage of all eligible voting-age population was 63.4 percent, putting us 23rd in the nation. That’s a big jump up from 30th in the nation four years earlier, before Illinois had a full SDR program up and running.
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FOP oppo dump
Monday, Mar 20, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* One of the candidates for Chicago FOP president may have a residency issue…
Chicago Police Officer Kevin W. Graham once picketed with the Fraternal Order of Police carrying a sign that called for ending the residency requirement for Chicago cops: “If the city wants to save money, lift residency requirement,” it read.
In 2013, he and his wife sold their split-level house in Edgebrook on the city’s Northwest Side — and bought a more expensive four-bedroom house in Lincolnshire, about 25 miles outside the city limits in Lake County. […]
Records also show Graham’s wife was registered to vote from the Lincolnshire address and that Graham was registered from a 900-square-foot basement apartment in West Town, a near West Side Chicago neighborhood. Two cars Graham owns aren’t registered to either address, but to the 19th District police station where he works. […]
The Grahams claim a homestead exemption on the property tax bill for the Lincolnshire house. […]
Graham said he moved out of basement apartment after it flooded “about a year ago” and now lives in a Lake View condominium owned by his sister. He admits he voted using the West Town address five months ago, but told poll workers he had moved before they gave him a ballot.
Doesn’t look good.
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Griffin still state’s richest person
Monday, Mar 20, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Crain’s…
Ken Griffin of Citadel again leads Illinois in Forbes’ yearly list of the world’s billionaires.
The list includes 16 people from Illinois, down by one from 17 on last year’s list. […]
Five Pritzkers are among the 16 in Illinois on this year’s list: J.B., Thomas, Gigi, Jennifer and Nicholas Pritzker II.
Griffin, CEO of the Chicago hedge fund firm, had a net worth of $8 billion as of Feb. 17, according to Forbes, up from $7.5 billion on last year’s list. He is 166th overall on the world list.
Second in Illinois is Sam Zell, with a net worth of $5 billion. Third is J.B. Pritzker, at $3.4 billion.
Griffin and Zell are active Bruce Rauner supporters. Jennifer Pritzker is also a Republican.
The full Illinois list is here.
* Related…
* What will Zell do with $2.1 billion in cash?
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* Not unexpected, but ouch…
A man who launched an ill-fated primary election challenge of Michael J. Madigan, arguably the most powerful politician in Illinois, has again lost to the Speaker of the State House of Representatives, after a federal judge tossed out his lawsuit alleging Madigan and his political allies violated his constitutional rights by conspiring to smear his name and undercut his campaign.
On March 14, U.S. District Judge Matthew F. Kennelly sided with Madigan and other defendants accused in the lawsuit, saying plaintiff Jason Gonzales presented no evidence that Madigan and his allies used the power of the state or their positions to violate any of Gonzales’ rights.
“Gonzales argues … that, due to Madigan’s lengthy service in the Illinois House of Representatives, his ‘authority as a private person and the authority he derives from his position are indistinguishable,’” Kennelly wrote. “Gonzales cites no case law to support this proposition. The Seventh Circuit has repeatedly stated that ‘[t]he mere assertion that one is a state officer does not necessarily mean that one acts under color of state law.’
“Gonzales must allege facts permitting a plausible inference that Madigan engaged in conduct made possible by his official authority under state law that contributed to the alleged constitutional violations. Gonzales has not done so in his complaint in its current form.”
Kennelly dismissed the complaint without prejudice, for now, giving Gonzales until March 29 to refile a lawsuit “that contains at least one viable claim.”
Go read the whole thing. Brutal.
*** UPDATE *** Um, OK. But how about just coming up with “one” fact?…
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You may have heard about a recent Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll which found that Gov. Bruce Rauner’s job disapproval ratings have almost doubled in the past two years, from 31 percent in March of 2015 to 58 percent this month. According to the poll, Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan’s current disapproval rating is 61 percent, about the same as his 63 percent disapproval rating last October. Rauner’s disapproval rating last October was 55 percent.
During this long governmental impasse, Speaker Madigan has championed the cause of unions and working people against the governor’s attempts to take rights and benefits away from them. But the Democrat is actually underwater with union members. According to the Simon poll, 55 percent of respondents who said they belong to a union disapprove of Madigan’s job performance, including 38 percent who strongly disapprove. Just 34 percent of union members approve of his job performance, while only 12 percent strongly approve. All this pain and they still don’t like him.
But union members dislike the governor far more. The poll found that 72 percent of union members disapprove of Rauner’s job performance, and half of union members strongly disapprove. Only 24 percent approve. On Rauner, anyway, the union message has gotten out.
At the very beginning of this impasse almost two years ago, a top Madigan operative told me the plan was to drag Rauner down to the same polling levels as the House Speaker. They’re very nearly there.
Gov. Rauner is polling horribly everywhere. Fifty-eight percent of suburbanites and 56 percent of downstaters disapprove of his job performance. Another 62 percent of moderates, 60 percent of independents, 47 percent of born-again Christians, 55 percent of men, 61 percent of women, 56 percent of seniors, 54 percent of whites, 56 percent of those making over $100,000 a year and 55 percent of non-union members all disapprove of his job performance.
The same day, JB Pritzker announced he was forming an exploratory committee to run for governor, the Illinois Republican Party made a wildly unsubstantiated claim that the Democrat was “at the center of Blagojevich’s criminal scheme to sell Illinois’ Senate seat.” Like it or not, this is our future.
Barring a dramatic turnaround in his approval ratings, Gov. Rauner’s only sure path to reelection is to make his opponent look even uglier than he does - and he looks pretty darned ugly right now. But he’s also got a very expensive ugly stick with which he can bludgeon the other side. He’s already deposited $50 million into his campaign bank account and there’s plenty more cash where that came from. So, 2018 will not only likely be the most expensive gubernatorial race in history, it’ll be the meanest, because now that the governor has opened the door to these sorts of crazy attacks, the other side will undoubtedly respond in-kind.
Rauner has spent tens of millions of dollars muddying up Speaker Madigan’s image and he’ll definitely use this “issue” against whoever his opponent will be. Campaigns are usually referendums on the incumbent, so Rauner will attempt to make Madigan and whoever his alleged puppet gubernatorial candidate is the incumbents while positioning himself as the outsider trying to change things for the better. For the past two years, the whole plan has been to equate “Democrat” with “Madigan” in voters’ minds. And it’s had some success.
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“When is a Democrat going to run a campaign for that 61 percent?” a Democratic operative asked me last week, referring to the obvious opportunity to capitalize on Madigan’s 61 percent disapproval rating. To the operative, this is a no-brainer. Run a campaign that criticizes both Rauner and Madigan. After all, even more Democrats disapprove of Madigan’s job performance (47 percent) than approve (40 percent), while 27 percent of Democrats strongly disapprove and only a tiny 9 percent strongly approve.
So far, announced Democratic candidate Chris Kennedy has seemed to go out of his way to avoid directly criticizing Madigan. Even Ameya Pawar, the progressive Democratic candidate, hasn’t really launched on the guy. Pritzker hasn’t granted any serious interviews and hasn’t issued any substantive policy statements, so we don’t know yet where he’ll stand.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party has not done much of anything to equate “Republican” with “Rauner” in voters’ minds. Rauner’s numbers were almost as bad last October as they are now, but the Democrats barely mentioned him in their campaigns. It’s probably time to start thinking about that.
* Whet Moser adds this bit of historical context…
In 2013, Pat Quinn was judged to be the second-most-vulnerable governor in America by FiveThirtyEight, with a net job-approval rating of -24 percentage points. Rick Scott of Florida was third at -20. Scott won reelection by just one percent of the vote against a weak opponent; Quinn, of course, lost by a substantial margin. Today, Rauner sits at -22 points—in the parlance of the month, on the bubble.
Discuss.
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