Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Will “Madigan map-making” survive? It depends who you ask
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Will “Madigan map-making” survive? It depends who you ask

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

* From a Tribune editorial entitled “Gerrymandering heads to the U.S. Supreme Court. Will Madigan map-making survive?”

The justices have agreed to consider whether Wisconsin’s State Assembly map violates the 14th amendment’s equal protection clause because it was drawn to neutralize the votes of Democrats, depriving them of representation.

The standard proffered by a bipartisan group of voting advocates is a straightforward mathematical calculation. It tallies the number of votes that are “wasted,” or assigned to a district in which they could not affect the outcome of an election. A handful of Democrats carved into a Republican stronghold, for example, or the redundant Republicans crowded into a district where half as many would have constituted a majority.

A map drawn without bias would “waste” about the same number of Republican and Democratic votes. The difference, or the “efficiency gap,” is a measure of partisan imbalance. The larger the gap, the harder it would be for mapmakers to convince a court that the lines weren’t drawn to disenfranchise the opposing party.

That makes sense to us. It made sense to the panel of federal judges whose decision is now before the Supreme Court. We hope the justices are impressed as well.

The editorial implies that Illinois’ map-making process is so political that it would be struck down if the Supreme Court whacks Wisconsin’s law.

* But the folks who are behind the Wisconsin case say Illinois law wouldn’t be in danger

(A)ccording to Nick Stephanopolous, a law professor and lawyer for Wisconsin Democrats, it would leave Madigan’s partisan cartography undisturbed.

“At this point, no, (the Wisconsin case would not affect Illinois), simply because the ‘efficiency gap’ isn’t big enough for Illinois,” he said.

Efficiency gap?

That’s a measure the Wisconsin judges embraced as a means of determining the political unfairness of the Wisconsin districts.

The judges considered total votes cast statewide in legislative races and used those totals to determine how many individual districts each party would have won if the elections were held on a statewide basis.

If you click here and scroll down, you’ll find an explanation of the “efficiency gap.” And if you click here, you’ll see a list of the 15 state legislative maps which the researches say show significant partisan bias one way or another. Illinois isn’t one of them.

* Others disagree

In 2012, [Illinois] Democratic House candidates got 52 percent of the vote statewide but captured 60 percent of the seats, report political scientist Kent Redfield of the University of Illinois at Springfield and policy consultant Cynthia Canary. In 2014, Democrats got 50.5 percent of the vote and 60 percent of the seats. This year, Madigan’s party again won 60 percent of the races.

That’s why Illinois Republicans may side with Wisconsin Democrats on one issue: partisan gerrymandering. On Nov. 21, a federal district court struck down Wisconsin’s legislative map on the ground that it unfairly favors Republicans, who dominate the Legislature. It had been more than three decades since a federal court invalidated a reapportionment plan for partisan bias.

The Supreme Court ultimately overruled that decision, upholding an Indiana redistricting plan. But the justices affirmed that a gerrymander could be so biased toward one party as to violate the Constitution. The district court said the Wisconsin plan fits the bill.

A few months ago, I attempted to referee this topic between Redfield and the Wisconsin folks. I never really did get to the bottom of it, however. Long story short, they’re looking at the same problem in slightly different ways. So, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens next.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

23 Comments
  1. - Grand Avenue - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:06 am:

    Looking at the votes for House Members isn’t the best measure because a lot of Deep Blue seats are unopposed and people just skip voting for them.

    In Illinois in 2016, Hillary Clinton got 55% of the vote. The House Dems got 67/118 seats, or 57% of the seats - seems pretty fair to me.


  2. - The Captain - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:10 am:

    In 2014 Bruce Rauner got more votes than Pat Quinn in 69 House districts, Tom Cross got more votes than Mike Frerichs in 64 House districts and the House Republicans only managed to win 47 seats. It’s not that Republicans can’t manage to win more votes than Democrats in a majority of the House districts under this map, it’s that some sort of ineptitude keeps the House Republicans from doing so.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:12 am:

    The Wisconsin Map issue, all it really does, at this specific point of the discussion, is just that, puts the Illinois Map up for discussion.

    While our pension language in the constitution mirrors other states, map making in of itself isn’t mirrored “constructively” as maps can differ in rationale just by the populations within subgroups one state may have that another state would not.

    Interesting discussion, to say the least.


  4. - Annonin' - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:15 am:

    The simplest element to remember is Madigan always to comply with the Voting Rights Act while GOPies use that measure to blow their nose. Hence they lose in federal courts.
    Not sure the use of who got what % of vote is especially meaningful.


  5. - Sue - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:24 am:

    Does anyone else find it infuriating that the media when discussing this issue always focuses on Republican gerrymandering and never mentions Madiganstan


  6. - My button is broke... - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:28 am:

    Redistricting is an interesting and extremely complicated topic. I think it is interesting to note that in link that Rich posted about the efficiency gap, the author cites maps where there are all districts are of one party as more fair than the map where there are more mixed districts. The tribune and other reformers say that redistricting would result in closer elections. But using this metric, that might not be the result (at least from the basic explanation of this metric).


  7. - Mike Cirrincione - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:31 am:

    The best way to put this issue to rest, for once and for all is to Amend the U.S. Constitution. Just use the US Geological Survey for mapping of districts and ban gerrymandering.

    Also include a Right to Vote, which does not exist.


  8. - ZC - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:37 am:

    I’m not sure what the “unbiased” alternative in Illinois is supposed to look like, is the thing.

    Super-”packing” as many Dems as possible into as few districts as possible (even if the districts look appealingly rectangular) in the northeast corner of the state? That’s “reform”? It looks like Republican gerrymandering to me, just another form of self-interest cloaked as the public interest.

    I’d be interested in other words what a “fair map” of Illinois would look like. If it didn’t include -some- Democratic advantage, considering how IL has voted in presidentials statewide going back to the 1990s, I’d be highly suspicious of it.


  9. - ZC - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:38 am:

    Mike 11:31 am -

    “Just use the US Geological Survey for mapping of districts and ban gerrymandering.”

    Umm, a few more details please…


  10. - My New Handle - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:38 am:

    What is Madigan’s mapmaking that left him out of the majority for only two years under a Republican map?


  11. - Been There - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:41 am:

    === or the redundant Republicans crowded into a district where half as many would have constituted a majority.====
    Unless everyone in a district is a republican this statement is a mathmatical impossibility.


  12. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:41 am:

    If gerrymandering didn’t make a huge difference, Madigan wouldn’t fight redistricting reform as hard as he has, and the Dems would use it as a bartering chip (a cost-free Turnaround Agenda item) in the budget negotiations.


  13. - Blooms of Spring - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:54 am:

    One of my favorite podcasts, Opening Arguments, has 2 episodes explaining why packing and cracking are mostly constitutional if done for partisan reasons, but not for racial reasons. Check out episodes OA54 and this weeks update OA72 for a legal rundown.

    Sue says the media only reports… unfair! Got any proof of your assertion? Like why we don’t hear about more votes for US house demos than republics but repubs hold majority of seats due to Repub gerrymandering?


  14. - Ron - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 11:56 am:

    Hopefully not. Illinois has some of the worst politicians in the nation. Look at what is happening to the crime bill in Springfield. We need to clean house and pay these useless reps $200/term as New Hampshire does.


  15. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 12:13 pm:

    I hope Madigan discovered how his last approach was so successful he suffered blowback from it.

    One can be blamed for being too powerful by governors who can’t govern, ya know.


  16. - Sue - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 12:29 pm:

    Bloom- you must have missed all of the news reporting following the recent case in NC. All of the stories focused on those racist republicans in NC and never mentioned Illinois and how Madigan has routinely fought off attempts to get the Illinois mapmaking onto the ballot


  17. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 12:41 pm:

    ===All of the stories focused on those racist republicans in NC and never mentioned Illinois===

    Why would a story about a Supreme Court ruling in North Carolina include info about Illinois, which wasn’t part of the case?

    You really are clueless sometimes.


  18. - Simple Simon - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 1:55 pm:

    Sue- the article I read specifically mentioned that the NC GOP was only doing what the Dems did when they were in power. I guess you only see what fits your world view.


  19. - Sue - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 2:51 pm:

    you guys are missing the point. The media always harps on Republican mapmaking disenfranchising voters. Has the NYT or awP in their gerrymandering articles EVER mentioned what happens in Illinois? The elections for the legislature here are a joke. As Kass always says- the citizens here are prisoners of Mr Madigan


  20. - walker - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 3:19 pm:

    Just another case of “Illinois Is The Worst!” being disproved by neutral metrics.

    We don’t have always to be “the worst” or even close, to justify needed improvement.


  21. - Abu Iskandr - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 3:29 pm:

    Were you thinking of this from Mother Jones, Sue?

    While seemed to lean on reading Justice Kennedy’s tea leaves on his possible inclinations that partisan gerrymandering may be argued against on First Amendment (rather than Fourteenth Amendment) grounds, the SupCt is actually facing several challenges to NC’s redistricting system (with many questions revolving around “race as a proxy for party/party as a proxy for race” justification. (See Election Law Blog for more: https://electionlawblog.org/?p=92837#more-92837)


  22. - Abu Iskandr - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 3:31 pm:

    This was the Mother Jones article: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/05/supreme-court-north-carolina-racial-gerrymander-case-voting-rights


  23. - Anonymous - Tuesday, May 30, 17 @ 4:59 pm:

    Sue, you can go home now.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Question of the day
* School has kid slapped with felony eavesdropping charge
* AG Madigan to file lawsuit challenging "cruel and unconstitutional policy" at southern border
* Rep. Andersson tries a comeback
* CTU's Lewis to retire
* *** UPDATED x2 *** Rauner brags he's "dramatically" reduced Medicaid enrollment, but hit on "failing" computer system
* Fitch: "The enacted budget entails significant implementation risk"
* *** UPDATED x2 - Pritzker campaign calls comments "racist" *** After Black Caucus backlash, Gov. Rauner says he's "Not surprised they're sensitive because the black legislators really have not been serving their community very well"
* Rep. Chad Hays to resign
* The local news memory hole
* No Janus ruling today
* Police chiefs want Rauner to veto hemp bill
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner campaign responds *** New Pritzker TV ad blames Rauner for job losses to neighboring states
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* BGA President: Rauner budget a shaky platform f.....
* Statehouse Insider: Wait almost over for Janus .....
* Dragon Boat Race held in Chicago to spread Chin.....
* WWE Hall Of Famer Harley Race comments on Vader.....
* Crain's Chicago Business: Illinois' exi.....
* Miller: It's just one poll in June..
* SVM EDITORIAL: Let schools, not state, determin.....
* School districts nervous about possible $40000 .....
* Gov. Rauner's legacy rests with the US Supr.....
* Morrison says there's no room in budget to .....


* LGBT-friendly affordable housing units to open in Chicago
* Alleged police misconduct may cost Chicago $6 million
* Illinois man flees police, banned from motorcycle for year
* Illinois-Kentucky ferry may sink under rising costs
* Illinois WWII vet receives France's highest honor
* University of Illinois seeks dismissal of free speech suit
* Zoning exception OK'd for seed company near Springfield
* University will honor alumnus who stopped Indiana shooting
* Illinois finalizes its plans to prevent another Russian hack
* EXCHANGE: Marengo families seeking normalcy year after blast

* Illinois finalizes its plans to prevent another Russian hack
* Illinois stands to gain from Supreme Court decision
* Records: Mansion used in Rauner's 'Porcelain Prince' ad got its own tax reduction
* Illinois politicians seek answers to family separations at border
* 80+ years later, Meredosia woman sees the opening of another new bridge
* Chatham man wins Illinois Bicentennial coin design contest
* Rauner to consider allowing medical cannabis for opioid patients
* Bipartisan work yields gun bills, fate rests with Rauner
* Rauner names Justin Blandford curator of Governor's Mansion
* Rauner names Williamsville woman interim HFS director

* Mariano's parent buys turnaround time
* Trump's tariff tweet spurs consternation at local car dealerships
* Illinois' existential problem: Shrinking number of young people
* Chicago set for another big TV year
* Chicago manufacturer automates—then hires


* 2 shot in Washington Park
* Horoscope for June 24, 2018
* Burglars stealing from garages in Logan Square: police
* Tempers flare as ‘searching’ Cubs drop third straight to last-place Reds
* US military moves 100 coffins to North Korean border for war remains
* Trump administration seeks to expand immigrant family detention
* Vote for Pedro: Strop starts All-Star write-in campaign for Albert Almora Jr.
* Man shot in head in Englewood
* Sox blow lead as Dylan Covey exits with injury, lose 7-6 to A’s
* Sox notebook: Miguel Gonzalez, Nicky Delmonico injury updates


* English bulldog Zsa Zsa wins World's Ugliest Dog contest
* Pitcher Edwin Jackson on cusp of tying major-league record by playing for 13th team
* U.S. officials separated him from his daughter. Then he was deported to El Salvador.
* Federal cybersecurity funds aimed at preventing another Russian hack into Illinois' elections
* U.S. moves 100 coffins to North Korean border to collect war remains
* Reds crush Cubs 11-2 for third straight win in series
* Justice Department gives Congress new classified documents on Russia probe
* Willson Contreras says his lack of a 'thank-you' to ump led to bench coach's ejection
* 1 dead, 1 wounded in Englewood shootings
* NHL draft helps Blackhawks with the future; now it's time to look to the present


» ‘That’s A Sad Woman’: Struggling Lincoln Foundation To Sell Monroe, Sandburg Photos
» The Week in Review: Immigration Debate Explodes in Chicago
» Rauner: Black Legislators Not Serving Their Community
» State Week: Online Sales Taxes; CPS Scandal; Rauner Takes On Black Caucus
» WBEZ’s Chicago And Illinois News Roundup: June 22, 2018
» Jurors Get Close-Up View Of Chicago Politics In Probes Of Shootings By Cops
» Ailing Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis Retiring
» Rebecca Makkai, Author Of ‘The Great Believers’; Crowded Starved Rock; Illinois Outdoor Destinations
» Cook County To Hire Sexual Harassment Watchdog
» #656 Hinds & Opinions on Beyoncé and Jay-Z, Parquet Courts & More


* Angie Muhs: Goal of opinion page is to spark discussion and thought
* BGA President: Rauner budget a shaky platform for campaign
* Community Foundation for the Land of Lincoln: Women for Women making new connections
* Illinois finalizes its plans to prevent another Russian hack
* Our View: Hearing should focus on solutions for DCFS children
* Statehouse Insider: Wait almost over for Janus decision
* George Will: Charles Krauthammer, a diagnostician of our public discontents
* Ed Rogers: Democrats still have no message on the economy or jobs
* Point: Obamacare's constitutionality ends when its tax ends
* Counterpoint: Injustice reigns as Trump's Justice Department attacks Obamacare


* One arrested after apparent standoff
* Williamson County to let voters decide whether it should be a sanctuary for gun owners
* Healthcare mission provides free care to Southern Illinoisans
* Land of Lincoln hosts clinic to expunge or seal criminal records in Carbondale
* Save Our Streets: Event battles violence, celebrates talent
* Peoria Heights police go live with body cameras
* Troy man arrested, charged with manslaughter and sexual assault
* Relay For Life raises $255,300; more coming in
* Family meets for 100th annual reunion in Decatur
* Lakside Water district lifts boil order


* New Zealand leader names daughter Neve, leaves hospital
* Trump pushes tough immigration stance in Nevada appearance
* MLS Capsules
* Shelton's late goal helps Sporting KC beat Dynamo 3-2
* Han Solo's Blaster from 'Return of the Jedi' tops auction

* Chicago rally protests Trump's border ...
* Illinois finalizes its plans to prevent an...
* Biofuel Trade Groups Express Concerns Abou...
* Illinois' officials weigh in on immigr...
* Opioid bills could net millions for companies
* House subcommittee holds hearing on advanc...
* Farm bill passes House with welfare-to-wor...
* LETTER: Will Rep. John Faso take stand on ...
* 'Ant-Man and the Wasp' Connects Di...
* House approves massive opioids legislation

* Across the city, Chicagoans protest Trump ......
* Chicagoans Rally For Border Children To Re......
* How Stephen Miller, the architect behind T......
* Officials Share Info on Immigrant Kids in ......
* WATCH: Democratic candidate Londrigan brin......

* Kankakee not on map...
* Senate Passes Duckworth & Durbin Amend......
* Pulse of the Voters: The increasing influe......
* Tammy Duckworth TV Commercials Ads...
* Mazie Hirono, Tammy Duckworth, and ......

* IIT Hyderabad builds dataset to understand online user-engagement
* Imagining A Blockchain University
* 5 WaysDigital Connectivity is Revolutionising Education
* 4 Powerful Ways to Use Games in eLearning
* Why Companies Are Taking It Upon Themselves to Help Workers Learn New Skills
* Preparing students for workplace of the future
* I'm know I'm late on Korea
* Lionel's Ready For Pride - Are You?
* An Anniversary Worth Bragging About
* Pride Cleaners has a new owner


* Chairman Fratianni selected for national workers' comp leadership role
* Unemployment Rate Continues Falling in All Metro Areas

  
* BlackBerry security tools are coming to CAT and Land Rover smartphones
* PayPal touts global reach as mobile wallets pop up in APAC
* The Meizu 16 will cost less than $615
* Microsoft unexpectedly drops Windows 7 support for some ancient CPUs
* Nokia 7 Plus ARCore support is now live
* Smartphone World Cup: Round of 16, part 1
* Walmart will begin selling an exclusive monthly DC comic anthology in July

* Most Essential White Sox Vote: Round 35
* White Sox can't hold early lead as Covey exits
* Sox shaken and stirred in loss
* Anderson celebrates birthday with 13th homer
* White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey discusses the groin injury tha...
* Anderson hits 13th homer as Athletics top White Sox 7-6
* Yolmer Sanchez made a heads-up play to catch Dustin Fowler off base...


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller