Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » I don’t quite get it
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
I don’t quite get it

Thursday, Aug 17, 2017

* Sabato’s Crystal Ball kinda contradicts itself in this projection

Of all the elected GOP incumbents, Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) of Illinois seems like he is clearly in the most trouble. Businessman J.B. Pritzker (D), who can match the also super-wealthy Rauner dollar for dollar, is asserting himself in the Democratic primary against businessman Chris Kennedy (yes, he is one of THE Kennedys) and others. This is a true Toss-up, although Rauner, who has been feuding with the Democratic legislature his entire time in office, is in really serious trouble.

The race is a “true Toss-up” but Rauner is in “really serious trouble”? Can y’all explain this to me?

- Posted by Rich Miller        

42 Comments
  1. - Stark - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:43 pm:

    Maybe the idea is because he’s an incumbent he’s supposed to have an innate advantage, and that the recent turmoil surrounding the budget and K-12 funding has created a situation where the race is “closer” than it was before.


  2. - Dome Gnome - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:44 pm:

    I dunno. Maybe the Democratic primary is a toss-up but the rest is all gravy?


  3. - Blue Bayou - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:46 pm:

    Calling things a toss-up drive clicks and traffic.

    Horse race.

    The truth is he’s in trouble and it’s too early to tell how the actual post-primary election is going to go.


  4. - wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:46 pm:

    The explanation is confused thinking and poor writing.


  5. - Mr. K. - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:46 pm:

    What else is weird about it is the idea that if, indeed, the race is marked “toss-up” and Rauner is, indeed, in “serious trouble” — then this means that in a solidly blue-state a far-right, in-trouble Governor has a solid 50/50 chance. A coinflip.

    What *that* says is that no matter what Rauner does, no matter what the polls show, no matter who comes (or doesn’t) out to vote — Rauner’s as likely to get beaten as he isn’t.

    So if it’s a coin-flip — then what does that say about the electorate?


  6. - Blue Bayou - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:46 pm:

    “drives”

    Edit function, please, Rich.


  7. - anon - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:47 pm:

    because the people that voted for Rauner will not vote for a Madigan proxy as governor. With pritzker and Kennedy we get even higher taxes, more spending, more borrowing, no pension reform….more downgrades.


  8. - Nearly Normal - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:49 pm:

    Toss Up in the Dem primary? Rauner’s chances will be better or worse depending on who is the Dem candidate.


  9. - whetstone - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:49 pm:

    Last numbers for Rauner that I saw were in the range of Rick Scott in Florida–who won. He’s in between “doomed” and “unpopular but the favorite.”

    It’s a bad way of describing it but I think I get what he means.


  10. - Doofman - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:49 pm:

    What Stark said, plus not wanting to make it “Lean Dem” without an actual Dem nominee or even any decent head to head polling


  11. - Piece of Work - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:49 pm:

    After last November, Larry is gun shy.


  12. - MOON - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:50 pm:

    I think the article is referring to JB vs.Kennedy.

    If so, poorly written.


  13. - Shamrockery - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:52 pm:

    I thought the “toss-up” comment referred to the Kennedy-Pritzker contest (although it is confusingly written) . Did I read it wrong?


  14. - Real - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:52 pm:

    Serious trouble because Illinois is anti Trump?

    Could be why Rauner spoke against Trump recently.


  15. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:54 pm:

    == Did I read it wrong? ===

    Yes, you did.


  16. - Doofman - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:54 pm:

    This is the “Safe/Likely/Lean/Toss Up” scale, right? Explain how you make this Lean Dem (or Lean GOP for that matter) if you think “Toss Up” is wrong.


  17. - New Slang - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:58 pm:

    My God. Honestly, all this election talk 14 full months before an election??? No wonder people get so salty.

    If you have an elected position: do your job. Plenty of time left for campaigning.


  18. - Ha! - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:58 pm:

    That way he is right either way!


  19. - just sayin' - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:59 pm:

    Dems are so crazy and out of control with hating on Trump, I truly think Rauner could win, even though he doesn’t deserve to win, and even though he doesn’t deserve a boost from the President.


  20. - Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:12 pm:

    It’s Poli-Sci code for “That State’s so crazy and unpredictable, I don’t know where it will be in 15 months”


  21. - Blue Bayou - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:20 pm:

    Just sayin’: What part of “hating on Trump” is crazy, specifically?


  22. - Christopher - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:31 pm:

    I’m just guessing, but maybe by “a True Toss-up,” they mean between Rauner and Pritzker they are both rich businessmen?


  23. - blue dog dem - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:50 pm:

    If we could only get a conservative Dem, rather than the floundering four, this game would be over. As it is, Rauner may have a slim,Trump-like chance.


  24. - Amalia - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:51 pm:

    surprised Larry got this out considering all that is going on at UVA. He has made some pretty good comments in the last few days of terror and death and awful imagery. Don’t always agree with his analysis anyway, but he’s kind of an institution. Hoping he and his community find peace. great display on the lawn last night.


  25. - Skeptic - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:07 pm:

    I feel strongly both ways.


  26. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:10 pm:

    Incumbent Illinois Governors are difficult to defeat.

    See: Blagojevich, Rod.

    Then again, Rauner is 63% underwater with Trump in the White House in a state Clinton won by 17 points and Rauner last polled trailing a generic Dem by double digits.

    After $300 million spent… Why not make it a toss up?


  27. - Because I said so.... - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:18 pm:

    =Plenty of time left for campaigning.=

    Especially when you never stopped. Rauner.


  28. - Ward Heeler - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:00 pm:

    Like the 2016 national election, if you put up a flawed candidate dogged by ethical questions and pretend that you can coast to victory without staging an actual campaign, you may wake up shocked and sorry after the vote totals are tallied.


  29. - OldIllini - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:28 pm:

    After Sabato got burned on Clinton-Trump, the predictions might tend to get a little fuzzy.


  30. - Tinsel Town - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:46 pm:

    Simply Rauner appears to be inept. Unable to negotiate, rule the R’s punitively with his money and has turned politics toxic, as well as, accomplished substantial harm to the State.


  31. - NoGifts - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:48 pm:

    Just bad writing.


  32. - Steve - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:50 pm:

    You can trust Larry to be on the pulse of things.
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/


  33. - The Dude Abides - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:52 pm:

    Illinois should at least be leans Democratic in the 2018 Governor’s race.


  34. - Mr B. - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 7:37 pm:

    Rauner will lose. So the fun begins at the Democratic primary.


  35. - Jaxon - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 9:33 pm:

    How about a Manar / Sam Mc race . Wouldn’t that be a refreshing change ?


  36. - Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 9:47 pm:

    Blue dog dem:
    Where in the world are you going to find a conservative dem in Illinois?


  37. - Jechislo - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 9:48 pm:

    Whoops. That last post was me.


  38. - blue dog dem - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 10:33 pm:

    Costello II. More conservative than RAuner. By bunches.


  39. - mike - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 11:40 pm:

    ==Where in the world are you going to find a conservative dem in Illinois?==

    Lipinski would qualify as a blue dog/conservative Dem, but why would we nominate a blue dog with Illinois’s political leanings?
    As noted upthread, HRC defeated Trump by 17 points 9 months ago.

    Illinois ain’t Indiana.


  40. - IllinoisInsider - Friday, Aug 18, 17 @ 4:45 am:

    Yes, Rauner is in trouble. He won in 2014 by a hair because he won every single county except Cook. He’d have a tough but doable fight against Pritzker or Kennedy but he’d be soundly defeated by Biss.


  41. - blue dog dem - Friday, Aug 18, 17 @ 6:21 am:

    Mike@11:40. Why do we need a conservative with Illinois’ political leanings? Have ya’ chevcked our balance sheets lately?


  42. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 18, 17 @ 7:25 am:

    ===He won in 2014 by a hair because he won every single county except Cook.===

    Counties don’t vote.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* The great Rauner pivot of 2017
* Rauner's rollout
* Kennedy's "revolution"
* Plummer jumps into crowded field
* Report: HQ2 incentive package could top $2.25 billion
* More support for overriding Rauner veto of debt transparency bill
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Yet another problem at DCFS
* Will Illinois really break the spending record?
* Ives gears up, Walsh waits in wings
* *** UPDATED x1 *** "I’ve had hands up my skirt. I’ve had my hair pulled - There’s just kind of nothing you can really do"
* Rauner's federal pension idea allows "some level of bankruptcy"
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Dems pounce on new Rauner ad
* Poll: Pritzker leads Kennedy and Biss 39-15-6
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Rate the Rauner campaign kickoff video
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....
* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....
* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....
* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....
* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....
* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....
* Gubernatorial Candidates on Madigan - Alton Dai.....
* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....
* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....
* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall .....


* More Rauner, Democrat showdowns on tap in fall session
* Illinois panel to propose plan for adult education, literacy
* Chicago-area executives sentenced in school-fraud case
* Judge: Trump's health care cuts don't pose immediate threat
* South Bend a hot market for football weekend home rentals
* Child deaths spike in Illinois after DCFS privatizes program
* Peoria man charged in 1994 murder in suburban Chicago
* Man found guilty in death of student trying to sell his car
* Future of king salmon uncertain in Great Lakes
* Judge in Schock case sticks to finding against prosecutors

* Child deaths spike in Illinois after DCFS privatizes program
* Illinois, other states ask judge to keep health subsidies that Trump cut
* Democratic attorneys general unite against concealed-carry gun law
* Gov. Rauner makes re-election bid official with video
* Governor's race could be costliest in U.S. history
* Voter advocates push Illinois to exit multistate database
* Lawmakers set to return Tuesday for veto session
* Illinois Lottery's new manager projects $4B in sales
* UIS students could study at newly proposed Chicago research center
* Aaron Schock attorneys contest federal claims on misstatements

* Illinois asks judge to keep health subsidies that Trump cut
* Here are the key questions Rauner didn't answer today
* How Oscar Munoz spooked United Airlines investors
* Chicago's offer to Amazon: $2.25 billion in incentives
* Threadless acquires Bucketfeet


* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Oct. 24, 2017
* Dear Abby: Teen failing school, blames absent dad
* 2 decades later, man charged with killing elderly Lisle woman in 1994
* Man charged with killing woman, hurting 2 others in SW Side stabbing
* Violent 6 hours on Monday leave 1 dead, 6 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Man, 22, shot in Rogers Park
* Man faces charges after being found inside car in Evanston dealership
* MITCHELL: Gold Star Family disputes President Trump’s version of facts
* Pair charged with robbing woman using BB gun in Evanston
* Robber breaks into Evanston apartment, gets held up until cops arrive


* Teachers barred from Chicago Public Schools found work at city charters, inspector general says
* Chicago police seek answers in slaying of father of 3, killed after attending rock concert
* 5 Michigan teens charged with murder after rock thrown from highway overpass kills man
* Small Montana firm lands Puerto Rico's biggest contract to get the power back on
* Climate change already costing U.S. billions, GAO report says
* 1 dead, 7 wounded in separate city shootings
* Cubs assistant Eric Hinske takes hitting coach job with Angels
* Chicago-area high school football Week 10 rankings
* Publican chef Cosmo Goss fired over 'inappropriate' photo incident
* Harley-riding Rauner kicks off re-election bid with new video, Madigan criticism


» 4 Takeaways From Gov. Bruce Rauner’s Re-election Launch
» Retired Judge Richard Posner: ‘I’m Forming Nationwide Pro-Bono Group’
» EPA Looks At Cleanup Alternatives For Lead-Contaminated Indiana Site
» Lawmakers Push For Transparency In State Debt
» Rauner Makes Re-election Bid Official With Video
» Where Can Homeless People Pitch Tents In Chicago?
» Voter Advocates Push Illinois To Exit Multistate Database
» Lawmaker Says Facebook Refuses To Fact Check Ads
» State Week: Chasing Amazon, Bonding Debt
» Teaching Kids To ‘Say Something’ In An Era of School Shootings


* By Marc A. Thiessen: Virginia's Gillespie is tireless campaigner focusing on issues voters care about
* Child deaths spike in Illinois after DCFS privatizes program
* Illinois, other states ask judge to keep health subsidies that Trump cut
* Democratic attorneys general unite against concealed-carry gun law
* Gov. Rauner makes re-election bid official with video
* George Will: The fatal conceit of planning for the future
* Our View: Overriding this veto is a no-brainer
* Governor's race could be costliest in U.S. history
* Statehouse Insider: Will veto session show GOP revolt?
* Our View: Figure out how to make Innovation Network a reality


* Davenport Public Library offers virtual reality demo
* Planetarium offers fall open house
* Wine tasting fundraiser set Oct. 28
* Ghost investigation event set Oct. 25
* Police ID man shot by police after firing into Carbondale crowd
* Suspect in officer-involved shooting in Carbondale identified; ISP asking for witnesses to step forward
* HS 4A Volleyball Regional: Centennial vs. Danville
* McGee: 'Glad to get him out there'
* Smith: 'Figure out a way to shut them down'
* Child deaths spike in Illinois after DCFS privatizes program


* Condos, not hotel in St. Charles' First Street plans
* Bruce Rauner makes re-election bid official with video
* Girls volleyball scoreboard: Monday, Oct. 23 results
* Arlington Heights police search for liquor store robber
* Ducks' Patrick Eaves recovering from Guillain-Barre syndrome

* Dissident artist Ai Weiwei and US Rep. Ran...
* Will Trump continue to unravel Obama's leg...
* Democratic 14th Congressional District can...
* GOP congressmen say Rauner 'let down' Illi...
* Hultgren aims to help employers close the ...
* Thompson hopes to close 'skills gap' - Rec...
* Naperville's Lauren Underwood to run for R...
* Bipartisan group of lawmakers pushes job t...
* Measure extends term of FSOC independent m...
* Hundreds of high school students tour Smit...

* Democrats urge President Trump not to shri......

* The Senate must protect families and rejec......

* JFK assassination docs do provide a nice distraction (for Trump) from flaws
* Roundy's Recall: 16,320 Pounds Of Chili And Soup Products
* Stop Driving Kids Crazy
* Amazon slime.
* Will work for $2.5 billion.
* Jason Plummer enters race to replace Sen. Kyle McCarter
* Rauner launches campaign kickoff video
* Halloween reads: real-life horror stories from the Reader archive
* Calder and Koons at the Museum of Contemporary Art, and more of the best things to do in Chicago this week
* Christianity now world's most oppressed faith community


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Apple Support Doc Highlights In-Car Wireless Chargers That Work With iPhone 8 and 8 Plus
* Third Man Charged in 2014 Celebrity iCloud Phishing Attacks
* New York to finally move on from MetroCard to Apple Pay and other NFC formats
* Google ships Pixel 2 that failed QA while other units click and beep
* Apple Pay in New Zealand Expands to BNZ
* Sprint and T-Mobile skip earnings calls amid merger rumors
* Pixel 2 Real Audio Review: Let’s talk about headphone dongles… (Video)

* Sox Century: After the World Series
* Podcast: 2017 White Sox Pitchers and Catchers season review
* Steep climbs ahead for oft-injured White Sox
* #AwardWorthy: Vote for Engel's glove
* Sporcle Saturday: Long bombs
* Petricka undergoes surgery on right elbow
* Avisail sees similarities in rebuild, stellar year


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller