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I don’t quite get it

Thursday, Aug 17, 2017

* Sabato’s Crystal Ball kinda contradicts itself in this projection

Of all the elected GOP incumbents, Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) of Illinois seems like he is clearly in the most trouble. Businessman J.B. Pritzker (D), who can match the also super-wealthy Rauner dollar for dollar, is asserting himself in the Democratic primary against businessman Chris Kennedy (yes, he is one of THE Kennedys) and others. This is a true Toss-up, although Rauner, who has been feuding with the Democratic legislature his entire time in office, is in really serious trouble.

The race is a “true Toss-up” but Rauner is in “really serious trouble”? Can y’all explain this to me?

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Stark - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:43 pm:

    Maybe the idea is because he’s an incumbent he’s supposed to have an innate advantage, and that the recent turmoil surrounding the budget and K-12 funding has created a situation where the race is “closer” than it was before.

  2. - Dome Gnome - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:44 pm:

    I dunno. Maybe the Democratic primary is a toss-up but the rest is all gravy?

  3. - Blue Bayou - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:46 pm:

    Calling things a toss-up drive clicks and traffic.

    Horse race.

    The truth is he’s in trouble and it’s too early to tell how the actual post-primary election is going to go.

  4. - wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:46 pm:

    The explanation is confused thinking and poor writing.

  5. - Mr. K. - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:46 pm:

    What else is weird about it is the idea that if, indeed, the race is marked “toss-up” and Rauner is, indeed, in “serious trouble” — then this means that in a solidly blue-state a far-right, in-trouble Governor has a solid 50/50 chance. A coinflip.

    What *that* says is that no matter what Rauner does, no matter what the polls show, no matter who comes (or doesn’t) out to vote — Rauner’s as likely to get beaten as he isn’t.

    So if it’s a coin-flip — then what does that say about the electorate?

  6. - Blue Bayou - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:46 pm:


    Edit function, please, Rich.

  7. - anon - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:47 pm:

    because the people that voted for Rauner will not vote for a Madigan proxy as governor. With pritzker and Kennedy we get even higher taxes, more spending, more borrowing, no pension reform….more downgrades.

  8. - Nearly Normal - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:49 pm:

    Toss Up in the Dem primary? Rauner’s chances will be better or worse depending on who is the Dem candidate.

  9. - whetstone - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:49 pm:

    Last numbers for Rauner that I saw were in the range of Rick Scott in Florida–who won. He’s in between “doomed” and “unpopular but the favorite.”

    It’s a bad way of describing it but I think I get what he means.

  10. - Doofman - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:49 pm:

    What Stark said, plus not wanting to make it “Lean Dem” without an actual Dem nominee or even any decent head to head polling

  11. - Piece of Work - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:49 pm:

    After last November, Larry is gun shy.

  12. - MOON - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:50 pm:

    I think the article is referring to JB vs.Kennedy.

    If so, poorly written.

  13. - Shamrockery - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:52 pm:

    I thought the “toss-up” comment referred to the Kennedy-Pritzker contest (although it is confusingly written) . Did I read it wrong?

  14. - Real - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:52 pm:

    Serious trouble because Illinois is anti Trump?

    Could be why Rauner spoke against Trump recently.

  15. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:54 pm:

    == Did I read it wrong? ===

    Yes, you did.

  16. - Doofman - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:54 pm:

    This is the “Safe/Likely/Lean/Toss Up” scale, right? Explain how you make this Lean Dem (or Lean GOP for that matter) if you think “Toss Up” is wrong.

  17. - New Slang - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:58 pm:

    My God. Honestly, all this election talk 14 full months before an election??? No wonder people get so salty.

    If you have an elected position: do your job. Plenty of time left for campaigning.

  18. - Ha! - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:58 pm:

    That way he is right either way!

  19. - just sayin' - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:59 pm:

    Dems are so crazy and out of control with hating on Trump, I truly think Rauner could win, even though he doesn’t deserve to win, and even though he doesn’t deserve a boost from the President.

  20. - Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:12 pm:

    It’s Poli-Sci code for “That State’s so crazy and unpredictable, I don’t know where it will be in 15 months”

  21. - Blue Bayou - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:20 pm:

    Just sayin’: What part of “hating on Trump” is crazy, specifically?

  22. - Christopher - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:31 pm:

    I’m just guessing, but maybe by “a True Toss-up,” they mean between Rauner and Pritzker they are both rich businessmen?

  23. - blue dog dem - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:50 pm:

    If we could only get a conservative Dem, rather than the floundering four, this game would be over. As it is, Rauner may have a slim,Trump-like chance.

  24. - Amalia - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:51 pm:

    surprised Larry got this out considering all that is going on at UVA. He has made some pretty good comments in the last few days of terror and death and awful imagery. Don’t always agree with his analysis anyway, but he’s kind of an institution. Hoping he and his community find peace. great display on the lawn last night.

  25. - Skeptic - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:07 pm:

    I feel strongly both ways.

  26. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:10 pm:

    Incumbent Illinois Governors are difficult to defeat.

    See: Blagojevich, Rod.

    Then again, Rauner is 63% underwater with Trump in the White House in a state Clinton won by 17 points and Rauner last polled trailing a generic Dem by double digits.

    After $300 million spent… Why not make it a toss up?

  27. - Because I said so.... - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:18 pm:

    =Plenty of time left for campaigning.=

    Especially when you never stopped. Rauner.

  28. - Ward Heeler - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:00 pm:

    Like the 2016 national election, if you put up a flawed candidate dogged by ethical questions and pretend that you can coast to victory without staging an actual campaign, you may wake up shocked and sorry after the vote totals are tallied.

  29. - OldIllini - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:28 pm:

    After Sabato got burned on Clinton-Trump, the predictions might tend to get a little fuzzy.

  30. - Tinsel Town - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:46 pm:

    Simply Rauner appears to be inept. Unable to negotiate, rule the R’s punitively with his money and has turned politics toxic, as well as, accomplished substantial harm to the State.

  31. - NoGifts - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:48 pm:

    Just bad writing.

  32. - Steve - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:50 pm:

    You can trust Larry to be on the pulse of things.

  33. - The Dude Abides - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:52 pm:

    Illinois should at least be leans Democratic in the 2018 Governor’s race.

  34. - Mr B. - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 7:37 pm:

    Rauner will lose. So the fun begins at the Democratic primary.

  35. - Jaxon - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 9:33 pm:

    How about a Manar / Sam Mc race . Wouldn’t that be a refreshing change ?

  36. - Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 9:47 pm:

    Blue dog dem:
    Where in the world are you going to find a conservative dem in Illinois?

  37. - Jechislo - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 9:48 pm:

    Whoops. That last post was me.

  38. - blue dog dem - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 10:33 pm:

    Costello II. More conservative than RAuner. By bunches.

  39. - mike - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 11:40 pm:

    ==Where in the world are you going to find a conservative dem in Illinois?==

    Lipinski would qualify as a blue dog/conservative Dem, but why would we nominate a blue dog with Illinois’s political leanings?
    As noted upthread, HRC defeated Trump by 17 points 9 months ago.

    Illinois ain’t Indiana.

  40. - IllinoisInsider - Friday, Aug 18, 17 @ 4:45 am:

    Yes, Rauner is in trouble. He won in 2014 by a hair because he won every single county except Cook. He’d have a tough but doable fight against Pritzker or Kennedy but he’d be soundly defeated by Biss.

  41. - blue dog dem - Friday, Aug 18, 17 @ 6:21 am:

    Mike@11:40. Why do we need a conservative with Illinois’ political leanings? Have ya’ chevcked our balance sheets lately?

  42. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 18, 17 @ 7:25 am:

    ===He won in 2014 by a hair because he won every single county except Cook.===

    Counties don’t vote.

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