Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Downstate’s Republican shift
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Downstate’s Republican shift

Thursday, Sep 21, 2017

* Scott Kennedy is just invaluable. Check this out…


- Posted by Rich Miller        

42 Comments
  1. - Mrs. Robinson - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:07 am:

    The Illinois Policy Institute was founded in 2002.


  2. - Jer - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:08 am:

    One way to look at this is to see the growing Republican trend.

    The more accurate way to look at this is to see the power of political gerrymandering. All those districts flip, but Republicans are still diluted and the map still can squeeze out a 67-51 advantage.

    Yeah, both parties have done it before. But wow, there’s no ignoring that the maps put politics over people.


  3. - Fax Machine - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:09 am:

    Next remap fight will be a doozy


  4. - Downstate Illinois - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:11 am:

    This should have happened a decade earlier but Bill Clinton’s good ole boy charm and occasionally moderate policies masked leftward lurch of the Democratic Party. The national party left its downstate members behind with nowhere else to go.


  5. - Give Me A Break - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:12 am:

    As seen during past closures, these same areas turning red scream to the heavens about wanting smaller gvt and doing more with less.

    But they raise nine kinds of heck when smaller gvt and doing more with less means their area’s state jobs.

    They sure love them some tax payer funded jobs.


  6. - Fax Machine - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:12 am:

    To be fair, 67 out of 118 if 57%, which is not too far off from what Hillary got in Illinois.


  7. - Johnny Justice - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:13 am:

    What happened to the 96th running from Springfield to Decatur, including part of Christian Co., which has been blue since 2013?


  8. - City Zen - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:15 am:

    But are those downstate districts gaining or losing population?


  9. - Out Here In The Middle - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:17 am:

    Also interesting to note the jump in geographic size of downstate districts as 2012 rolls by. As Mr. Miller is fond of reminding someone after every statewide election “people vote, not counties”.


  10. - Texas Red - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:20 am:

    Makes me think of this quote from a one-time Democrat..

    “I Didn’t Leave The Party, The Party Left Me”


  11. - FDR Democrat - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:22 am:

    The move of voters in rural and small town America
    to the Republicans has been on going since at least Reagan and one can argue Nixon.

    Illinois has actually been behind, from a D perspective, this trend until the 2016
    election.

    Redistricting will be interesting. I suspect
    at least 3 House seats will need to be moved into the Chicago metro area..


  12. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:23 am:

    If you want a Raunerite Map (Not a GOP map) than voting for Bruce Rauner is the best way for the state to be held hostage by Rauner, leveraging a map for “term limits, property tax relief… ”

    Rauner isn’t building the GOP, Rauner wants a map to end prevailing wage, collecting bargaining, and finally starve out a state university or three.

    To the Post,

    The campaigns these last 3 cycles seemed to be most about regionalism and the GOP (and the last two by Raunerites) making any Dem “beholden” to Chicago, and the few Dems that had regional support that “I like them, we like them Dem or not” are slowly leaving open seats that allow the seeping of regionalism and a dislike for “She-Cah-Go” be the crux to defeat Dems.

    The cutback amendment really made regionalism and party affiliation a glaring litmus test now, with both parties now trying to find a way to divide so they (both parties) can add seats.

    Great work by Kennedy.


  13. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:24 am:

    Those trends could also be affected by the Blago years. That man was not well liked in the south.


  14. - SAP - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:24 am:

    Interesting to see how the western suburbs have turned bluer.


  15. - Name Withheld - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:24 am:

    Anonymous @ 10:24am was me.


  16. - The Captain - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:25 am:

    Jer, you’re confusing land with people. People vote, land doesn’t.

    Next time you watch the animation look at the northwest suburbs and how fast they go from red to blue, that offsets the republican gains downstate.


  17. - Juice - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:27 am:

    To be fair, it also shows the suburbs shifting to Democrats, but because of the smaller geographic area, it does not make for as striking a visual.


  18. - Roman - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:32 am:

    - The Captain - good point.

    The the “reddening” of downstate is more visually striking on the GIF because those districts cover a lot of territory. There’s plenty of “blueing” happening in the ‘burbs, but it just doesn’t catch your eye because the districts are much smaller.


  19. - Anon - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:33 am:

    Looking at the exact same gif you could have title this “Chicago/South Chicago’s Democrat Shift”….


  20. - Anon - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:35 am:

    And by Chicago I mean Cook Co and the surrounding burbs like those on the west side


  21. - We'll See - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:35 am:

    -Give Me A Break-
    You are so right - when Jacskonville Developmental Center closed then Rep Jim Watson (a smaller gov crusader) tuned into a NIMBY. This was followed by candidate Rauner promising not to close the Murray Center if elected — as if anybody concerned for Murray’s fate was going to vote for Quinn.


  22. - JohnnyPyleDriver - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:37 am:

    == leftward lurch of the Democratic Party. ==

    LOL, on what planet? They now support free trade (loss of union support), endless war, welfare reform, and no strings attached corporate bailouts. The party of FDR is so far to the right of him he wouldn’t even recognize it. But because they think transgender people shouldn’t be discriminated against, that’s enough for people to believe they’re communists.


  23. - anon2 - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:40 am:

    With downstate losing population and some suburban areas gaining, the GOP can’t expect to win the majority without regaining suburban seats. Let’s see if they can pick up the Sente and Nekritz seats next year. I’m betting not.


  24. - Reaganing - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:48 am:

    Interesting gif. This parallels what we’ve seen across the country. Regionalism is definitely a factor, rural vs. Urban. The gop has been gaining among rural democrats not just in Illinois.


  25. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:50 am:

    I would be interested to overlay population changes on top of the district’s partisan leanings. It is hard to tell in the GIF, but as those downstate districts turn red, the boundaries got a lot bigger after the remap, and ultimately there were fewer downstate districts as population shifted to the eight counties in NE Illinois. And as much as downstate turned red, the suburbs and exurbs turned blue, so there’s that.

    There is a big divide between rural Illinois and urban/metro Illinois just as we’ve seen pretty much everywhere else in America. We need to work harder to look past the differences and see instead what we all have in common.

    But I don’t think there is any reason to believe this trend won’t continue through the next map. Expect larger and redder districts in rural Illinois, with some smaller blue district centered near population centers.


  26. - Amalia - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:58 am:

    upstate New York, western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, industrial Michigan, rural Illinois, West Virginia, southern Louisiana and Mississippi. from p. 7 of “Everybody Lies” by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a powerful book. that list is re Google searches, the places with the highest racist search rates, part of his 2012 research trying to understand why Trump and admissions of racism. Such patterns do not favor Democrats. Shocked to find this on a page.


  27. - Mama - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:15 am:

    After the mess Rauner and Trump have caused, I don’t understand why anyone would vote Republican.


  28. - walker - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:18 am:

    Texas Red: We’re hearing the same kind of sentiment about their party moving so far to the right, that lifelong Republicans feel abandoned, at least in these suburbs. Moderates of both parties are being attacked or ignored by movements to the extremes.


  29. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:19 am:

    ‘Scott Kennedy is just invaluable’

    - the shareholders of Malort


  30. - regnaD kciN - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:31 am:

    “The cutback amendment really made regionalism and party affiliation a glaring litmus test now”

    I respectfully disagree with you O.W. The cutback amendment took effect in the 1982 election. The changes described occurred since 2002 - twenty years later. Also, since the cutback amendment only affected the House, would you say there was no similar impact on Senate districts/races?

    Respectfully.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:35 am:

    ===Also, since the cutback amendment only affected the House, would you say there was no similar impact on Senate districts/races?===

    Long term effects need to be looked at… long term.

    Also keep in mind that Pate’s Map.

    Anytime after the amendment where Dems or Repubs had no regional say during a monopolized map in either direction.

    With respect.


  32. - regnaD kciN - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:51 am:

    “Long term effects need to be looked at … long term.”

    Agreed.

    “Also keep in mind Pate’s Map.”

    “Anytime after the amendment where Dems or Repubs had no regional say during a monopolized map in either direction.”

    Not sure what you exactly mean by this. I’m guessing that you’re saying Pate drew the 80’s and 90’s legislative districts and that the Dems controlled the maps since the 2002 election and neither took into account regionalism? If that is what you meant, I agree. The maps were drawn to protect or strengthen some incumbents, drive out or screw others without regard for regional concerns. It would make Elbridge Gerry proud.


  33. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 12:37 pm:

    Southern Illinois Dixiecrats like Sen. Gary Forby and Rep. Brandon Phelps are on the way out.

    All Phelps ever did was rail against “Chicago” but he took money from the Intl. Union of Operating Engineers local 150 in Countryside, which is 350 miles from Harrisburg. 150 is also the union that formerly employed Todd Vandermyde, who as NRA lobbyist was joined at the hip with Phelps for years trying to pass a concealed carry bill. Lots of “Chicago money” seems to be steered to the good old boy Democrats in southern IL.


  34. - The Captain - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 1:11 pm:

    Phelps was a pro-labor Democrat, he had been with the Laborers before taking office so he was supported by other organized labor organizations throughout the state. The Democratic majority was the only thing preventing Bruce Rauner’s anti-labor agenda so it makes sense that pro-labor Democrats in vulnerable districts would get financial support from the broader labor community.


  35. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 1:27 pm:

    ===But I don’t think there is any reason to believe this trend won’t continue through the next map. Expect larger and redder districts in rural Illinois, with some smaller blue district centered near population centers.

    The red downstate areas on average are older and poorer as time continues as well.


  36. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 1:45 pm:

    It would be nice to compare the changes in population and demographics. Are progressives leaving dyed in the wool Rs behind?


  37. - Shemp - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 2:49 pm:

    Again, would be curious to know how the cap fax commenters are distributed. Downstate is such a different animal and hurting far worse and in different ways. Having been born in one declining manufacturing downstate area and now living in another, I really don’t think anyone northeast of The I80/I39 junction gets how the rest of the state is.


  38. - the Cardinal - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 4:46 pm:

    The divide and conquer, upstate v downstate ,Cook v the collars Chicago v the burbs will continue. That is all resume your duties.


  39. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 6:15 pm:

    GOP gains in rural districts are not more than offset by their losses in the suburbs.


  40. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 6:50 pm:

    Democrats win in metro areas, GOP, everywhere else.


  41. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 9:23 pm:

    ===GOP gains in rural districts are not more than offset by their losses in the suburbs.===

    Lol, not yet. That’s why the upcoming remap is so crucial. Because if population trends continue, there will be a net loss of legislative representation downstate. For the foreseeable future, the suburbs, exurbs and Chicago will have more districts added.

    When Kennedy updates this GIF in four years, those rural red districts are going to be huge. And there won’t be as many.

    There is a lot at stake in the Governor’s race.


  42. - Anon - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:35 am:

    This map corresponds pretty well with down state facility closures.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Amazon HQ2 site list unveiled
* Out of sight out of mind?
* Frerichs tries to use state investments to prod Facebook into cleaning up its act
* The rise of the billionaire governors
* Camelot promises to grow lottery sales by 40 percent
* Munger tries to defend Rauner veto of Debt Transparency Act
* Rauner: "I can’t comment on any business disputes"
* Question of the day
* Rauner finally takes a stand on a federal issue
* Moody's says "political backlash" against pop tax could make other tax hikes more difficult
* Report: Amazon subsidy could add up to $2 billion
* *** UPDATED x1 *** 10,800 jobs lost in a single month, but Illinois media barely notices
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* MLB open thread
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Voter advocates push Illinois to exit multistat.....
* Governor's Administration Present Budget Cuts -.....
* Governor's Administration Present Budget Cuts -.....
* Chicago releases list of possible Amazon headqu.....
* Chicago releases list of possible Amazon headqu.....


* Illinois city, county to implement domestic violence program
* Suburban neighborhood evacuated after gas explosions
* New Fort Wayne home planned for extensive Lincoln collection
* Peoria police officers to widely use body cameras by spring
* Cemetery won't allow mention of "rapist" priests at grave
* Lincoln museum exhibit features Christmas at the White House
* Voter advocates push Illinois to exit multistate database
* EXCHANGE: Encounter group spawns group of lifelong friends
* EXCHANGE: Woman finds meaning in helping animals in need
* Medical students in limbo as young immigrant program ends

* Illinois Lottery's new manager projects $4B in sales
* UIS students could study at newly proposed Chicago research center
* Aaron Schock attorneys contest federal claims on misstatements
* Under the Dome Podcast: Will lawmakers address gun control during the veto session?
* Chicago lawyer announces bid for Illinois attorney general
* Illinois borrows $1.5B at reduced interest to pay down debt
* Rauner cuts human services, other area in state budget
* Pritzker makes list of richest Americans; Rauner releases tax returns
* Pritzker makes list of richest Americans; Gov. Rauner doesn't
* Pritzker makes list of richest Americans, Gov. Rauner doesn't

* Is Dem primary over? No, but Pritzker rivals need to pick up pace
* The biggest Chicago-area building sales
* Here are the sites Chicago is pitching to Amazon
* Emanuel's challenges are far from over
* Clarification


* Person killed in Chicago Heights stabbing
* 2 men hurt in Lawndale shooting
* Man charged with driving away from traffic stop with cocaine, shotgun
* Cubs fire pitching coach Chris Bosio: report
* Man wanted in connection with wallet theft at Aurora gas station
* Man shot to death in Grayslake
* ARTHUR CYR: Iran – a crisis without an end
* Trump tweets he’ll allow release of classified JFK shooting files
* BROWN: In one Puerto Rican village, the river ran wild
* Today at the Chicago International Film Festival: ‘Princess Cyd’


* Cubs reportedly fire longtime pitching coach Chris Bosio
* Pau Gasol on Mirotic-Portis fight: 'That's not the way to do it'
* DeVos rescinds 72 guidance documents outlining rights for disabled students
* 2 wounded in shooting on West Side
* Woman found killed in Gary home identified by coroner
* Spain demands Catalonia elect new leaders weeks after region voted for independence
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 10/21/17
* Illinois pollution board to rule on complaint alleging coal ash contaminated groundwater
* Lake County deputies investigate fatal shooting of Zion man
* Vote: Top plays of the high school football weekend


» Voter Advocates Push Illinois To Exit Multistate Database
» Lawmaker Says Facebook Refuses To Fact Check Ads
» State Week: Chasing Amazon, Bonding Debt
» Teaching Kids To ‘Say Something’ In An Era of School Shootings
» Illinois Issues: Cities Lose Out On Retail Tax As Online Shopping Booms
» What Could Hurt Chicago’s Bid For Amazon’s HQ2?
» At CPS, More Special Education Dollars Go To White, Wealthier Students
» Illinois Bond Sale To Help Pay $16bn Debts
» Mayor To Propose Higher Prices For Ridesharing, Big Concerts
» WBEZ Investigation: CPS Secretly Overhauled Special Education At Students’ Expense


* Guest Column: What taxpayers should demand from next attorney general
* Ed Rogers: The Democratic Party's obsession with Hollywood celebrities was bound to blow up
* Illinois Lottery's new manager projects $4B in sales
* Counterpoint: Updating antiquated systems will open door to transparency
* Point: Taxpayers deserve a better look at the state’s bills
* Thumbs Up: To recent acts of kindness in Springfield
* Eugene Robinson: Trump's the one who didn't know 'what he was signing up for'
* UIS students could study at newly proposed Chicago research center
* Aaron Schock attorneys contest federal claims on misstatements
* Illinois Trial Lawyers Association: U.S. Chamber Poll is another attack on the rights of Illinois citizens


* LIVE! Minnesota
* Active shooter in Carbondale shot by police
* PHOTOS: American Heart Association's Macon County Heart and Stroke Walk 2017
* What you may have missed last week: Monroe Street shooting, Pritzker visit
* 'Ghost signs': Faded artistry spirits viewers into Decatur's past
* Dosunmu: 'I can change the culture'
* Suspect injured after shooting outside Curbside in Carbondale
* Shooting in Carbondale leaves 1 injured
* Game of the Week: STM-Uni High boys' soccer sectional title game
* Selling self-confidence: Sue's II boutique in Benton helps those struggling with hair loss


* Report: Chicago Cubs fire pitching coach Chris Bosio
* St. Charles police arrest man, 21, with loaded defaced gun, marijuana
* DuPage inmate, held on $3.7 million bail, racks up additional charges in jail
* Rockets say Chris Paul is 'week-to-week' with knee injury
* Dortmund mini-slump continues in 2-2 draw at Frankfurt

* Measure extends term of FSOC independent m...
* Helsinki Commission urges Erdogan to end p...
* Dissident artist Ai Weiwei and US Rep. Ran...
* Hultgren 'disappointed' about potential re...
* Democratic 14th Congressional District can...
* GOP congressmen say Rauner 'let down' Illi...
* Bipartisan group of lawmakers pushes job t...
* Hundreds of high school students tour Smit...
* Naperville's Lauren Underwood to run for R...
* Rival: Kinzinger not conservative - MyWebT...

* Rock Island gets $971183 in federal grants......

* Infrastructure a priority in meeting with ......

* Sarah Karp’s report on Forrest Claypool’s secret study, special ed service cuts and outrageous consultant fees. $15 million for proof reading?
* Inappropriate.
* Palatine para-professionals aren’t worth an 11 cent raise but they are too essential to allow them to strike.
* Keeping retirement weird. They don’t want to just end our defined benefit. They’re going after the defined contribution too. Shameless thieves.
* Do knee-jerk pols put any thought into votes they cast on govt. business?
* Chicago Design Week’s best events
* Illinois teacher retirees: What the hell is Walgreen’s up to?
* Raimondo and Rahm make an offer to Amazon. It’s a secret.
* Will Third Time Be The Charm For 4537 N. Clark?
* The Chicago Trib’s scab columnist John Kass calls me a fanatic.


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Emonster sues Apple for violating Animoji trademark
* GitHub’s scandalized ex-CEO returns with Chatterbug
* How many HTC U11 Plus specs can fit in an evleaks tweet?
* Google will refund you if you overpaid for a Pixel 2 at a pop-up store
* Redesigning the TechCrunch app
* JerryRigEverything slams Pixel 2 durability
* Google Pixel 2: A Fantastic First Impression (Video)

* Sporcle Saturday: Long bombs
* Petricka undergoes surgery on right elbow
* Avisail sees similarities in rebuild, stellar year
* White Sox Arizona Fall League overview
* Ron Gardenhire’s second chance back in AL Central
* Jimenez among prospects in winter leagues
* The five longest White Sox home runs of 2017


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller