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Downstate’s Republican shift

Thursday, Sep 21, 2017

* Scott Kennedy is just invaluable. Check this out…


- Posted by Rich Miller        

42 Comments
  1. - Mrs. Robinson - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:07 am:

    The Illinois Policy Institute was founded in 2002.


  2. - Jer - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:08 am:

    One way to look at this is to see the growing Republican trend.

    The more accurate way to look at this is to see the power of political gerrymandering. All those districts flip, but Republicans are still diluted and the map still can squeeze out a 67-51 advantage.

    Yeah, both parties have done it before. But wow, there’s no ignoring that the maps put politics over people.


  3. - Fax Machine - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:09 am:

    Next remap fight will be a doozy


  4. - Downstate Illinois - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:11 am:

    This should have happened a decade earlier but Bill Clinton’s good ole boy charm and occasionally moderate policies masked leftward lurch of the Democratic Party. The national party left its downstate members behind with nowhere else to go.


  5. - Give Me A Break - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:12 am:

    As seen during past closures, these same areas turning red scream to the heavens about wanting smaller gvt and doing more with less.

    But they raise nine kinds of heck when smaller gvt and doing more with less means their area’s state jobs.

    They sure love them some tax payer funded jobs.


  6. - Fax Machine - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:12 am:

    To be fair, 67 out of 118 if 57%, which is not too far off from what Hillary got in Illinois.


  7. - Johnny Justice - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:13 am:

    What happened to the 96th running from Springfield to Decatur, including part of Christian Co., which has been blue since 2013?


  8. - City Zen - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:15 am:

    But are those downstate districts gaining or losing population?


  9. - Out Here In The Middle - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:17 am:

    Also interesting to note the jump in geographic size of downstate districts as 2012 rolls by. As Mr. Miller is fond of reminding someone after every statewide election “people vote, not counties”.


  10. - Texas Red - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:20 am:

    Makes me think of this quote from a one-time Democrat..

    “I Didn’t Leave The Party, The Party Left Me”


  11. - FDR Democrat - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:22 am:

    The move of voters in rural and small town America
    to the Republicans has been on going since at least Reagan and one can argue Nixon.

    Illinois has actually been behind, from a D perspective, this trend until the 2016
    election.

    Redistricting will be interesting. I suspect
    at least 3 House seats will need to be moved into the Chicago metro area..


  12. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:23 am:

    If you want a Raunerite Map (Not a GOP map) than voting for Bruce Rauner is the best way for the state to be held hostage by Rauner, leveraging a map for “term limits, property tax relief… ”

    Rauner isn’t building the GOP, Rauner wants a map to end prevailing wage, collecting bargaining, and finally starve out a state university or three.

    To the Post,

    The campaigns these last 3 cycles seemed to be most about regionalism and the GOP (and the last two by Raunerites) making any Dem “beholden” to Chicago, and the few Dems that had regional support that “I like them, we like them Dem or not” are slowly leaving open seats that allow the seeping of regionalism and a dislike for “She-Cah-Go” be the crux to defeat Dems.

    The cutback amendment really made regionalism and party affiliation a glaring litmus test now, with both parties now trying to find a way to divide so they (both parties) can add seats.

    Great work by Kennedy.


  13. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:24 am:

    Those trends could also be affected by the Blago years. That man was not well liked in the south.


  14. - SAP - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:24 am:

    Interesting to see how the western suburbs have turned bluer.


  15. - Name Withheld - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:24 am:

    Anonymous @ 10:24am was me.


  16. - The Captain - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:25 am:

    Jer, you’re confusing land with people. People vote, land doesn’t.

    Next time you watch the animation look at the northwest suburbs and how fast they go from red to blue, that offsets the republican gains downstate.


  17. - Juice - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:27 am:

    To be fair, it also shows the suburbs shifting to Democrats, but because of the smaller geographic area, it does not make for as striking a visual.


  18. - Roman - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:32 am:

    - The Captain - good point.

    The the “reddening” of downstate is more visually striking on the GIF because those districts cover a lot of territory. There’s plenty of “blueing” happening in the ‘burbs, but it just doesn’t catch your eye because the districts are much smaller.


  19. - Anon - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:33 am:

    Looking at the exact same gif you could have title this “Chicago/South Chicago’s Democrat Shift”….


  20. - Anon - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:35 am:

    And by Chicago I mean Cook Co and the surrounding burbs like those on the west side


  21. - We'll See - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:35 am:

    -Give Me A Break-
    You are so right - when Jacskonville Developmental Center closed then Rep Jim Watson (a smaller gov crusader) tuned into a NIMBY. This was followed by candidate Rauner promising not to close the Murray Center if elected — as if anybody concerned for Murray’s fate was going to vote for Quinn.


  22. - JohnnyPyleDriver - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:37 am:

    == leftward lurch of the Democratic Party. ==

    LOL, on what planet? They now support free trade (loss of union support), endless war, welfare reform, and no strings attached corporate bailouts. The party of FDR is so far to the right of him he wouldn’t even recognize it. But because they think transgender people shouldn’t be discriminated against, that’s enough for people to believe they’re communists.


  23. - anon2 - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:40 am:

    With downstate losing population and some suburban areas gaining, the GOP can’t expect to win the majority without regaining suburban seats. Let’s see if they can pick up the Sente and Nekritz seats next year. I’m betting not.


  24. - Reaganing - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:48 am:

    Interesting gif. This parallels what we’ve seen across the country. Regionalism is definitely a factor, rural vs. Urban. The gop has been gaining among rural democrats not just in Illinois.


  25. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:50 am:

    I would be interested to overlay population changes on top of the district’s partisan leanings. It is hard to tell in the GIF, but as those downstate districts turn red, the boundaries got a lot bigger after the remap, and ultimately there were fewer downstate districts as population shifted to the eight counties in NE Illinois. And as much as downstate turned red, the suburbs and exurbs turned blue, so there’s that.

    There is a big divide between rural Illinois and urban/metro Illinois just as we’ve seen pretty much everywhere else in America. We need to work harder to look past the differences and see instead what we all have in common.

    But I don’t think there is any reason to believe this trend won’t continue through the next map. Expect larger and redder districts in rural Illinois, with some smaller blue district centered near population centers.


  26. - Amalia - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 10:58 am:

    upstate New York, western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, industrial Michigan, rural Illinois, West Virginia, southern Louisiana and Mississippi. from p. 7 of “Everybody Lies” by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a powerful book. that list is re Google searches, the places with the highest racist search rates, part of his 2012 research trying to understand why Trump and admissions of racism. Such patterns do not favor Democrats. Shocked to find this on a page.


  27. - Mama - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:15 am:

    After the mess Rauner and Trump have caused, I don’t understand why anyone would vote Republican.


  28. - walker - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:18 am:

    Texas Red: We’re hearing the same kind of sentiment about their party moving so far to the right, that lifelong Republicans feel abandoned, at least in these suburbs. Moderates of both parties are being attacked or ignored by movements to the extremes.


  29. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:19 am:

    ‘Scott Kennedy is just invaluable’

    - the shareholders of Malort


  30. - regnaD kciN - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:31 am:

    “The cutback amendment really made regionalism and party affiliation a glaring litmus test now”

    I respectfully disagree with you O.W. The cutback amendment took effect in the 1982 election. The changes described occurred since 2002 - twenty years later. Also, since the cutback amendment only affected the House, would you say there was no similar impact on Senate districts/races?

    Respectfully.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:35 am:

    ===Also, since the cutback amendment only affected the House, would you say there was no similar impact on Senate districts/races?===

    Long term effects need to be looked at… long term.

    Also keep in mind that Pate’s Map.

    Anytime after the amendment where Dems or Repubs had no regional say during a monopolized map in either direction.

    With respect.


  32. - regnaD kciN - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 11:51 am:

    “Long term effects need to be looked at … long term.”

    Agreed.

    “Also keep in mind Pate’s Map.”

    “Anytime after the amendment where Dems or Repubs had no regional say during a monopolized map in either direction.”

    Not sure what you exactly mean by this. I’m guessing that you’re saying Pate drew the 80’s and 90’s legislative districts and that the Dems controlled the maps since the 2002 election and neither took into account regionalism? If that is what you meant, I agree. The maps were drawn to protect or strengthen some incumbents, drive out or screw others without regard for regional concerns. It would make Elbridge Gerry proud.


  33. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 12:37 pm:

    Southern Illinois Dixiecrats like Sen. Gary Forby and Rep. Brandon Phelps are on the way out.

    All Phelps ever did was rail against “Chicago” but he took money from the Intl. Union of Operating Engineers local 150 in Countryside, which is 350 miles from Harrisburg. 150 is also the union that formerly employed Todd Vandermyde, who as NRA lobbyist was joined at the hip with Phelps for years trying to pass a concealed carry bill. Lots of “Chicago money” seems to be steered to the good old boy Democrats in southern IL.


  34. - The Captain - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 1:11 pm:

    Phelps was a pro-labor Democrat, he had been with the Laborers before taking office so he was supported by other organized labor organizations throughout the state. The Democratic majority was the only thing preventing Bruce Rauner’s anti-labor agenda so it makes sense that pro-labor Democrats in vulnerable districts would get financial support from the broader labor community.


  35. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 1:27 pm:

    ===But I don’t think there is any reason to believe this trend won’t continue through the next map. Expect larger and redder districts in rural Illinois, with some smaller blue district centered near population centers.

    The red downstate areas on average are older and poorer as time continues as well.


  36. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 1:45 pm:

    It would be nice to compare the changes in population and demographics. Are progressives leaving dyed in the wool Rs behind?


  37. - Shemp - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 2:49 pm:

    Again, would be curious to know how the cap fax commenters are distributed. Downstate is such a different animal and hurting far worse and in different ways. Having been born in one declining manufacturing downstate area and now living in another, I really don’t think anyone northeast of The I80/I39 junction gets how the rest of the state is.


  38. - the Cardinal - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 4:46 pm:

    The divide and conquer, upstate v downstate ,Cook v the collars Chicago v the burbs will continue. That is all resume your duties.


  39. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 6:15 pm:

    GOP gains in rural districts are not more than offset by their losses in the suburbs.


  40. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 6:50 pm:

    Democrats win in metro areas, GOP, everywhere else.


  41. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Sep 21, 17 @ 9:23 pm:

    ===GOP gains in rural districts are not more than offset by their losses in the suburbs.===

    Lol, not yet. That’s why the upcoming remap is so crucial. Because if population trends continue, there will be a net loss of legislative representation downstate. For the foreseeable future, the suburbs, exurbs and Chicago will have more districts added.

    When Kennedy updates this GIF in four years, those rural red districts are going to be huge. And there won’t be as many.

    There is a lot at stake in the Governor’s race.


  42. - Anon - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:35 am:

    This map corresponds pretty well with down state facility closures.


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