Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » It would’ve been a very tough campaign for Lisa Madigan
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
It would’ve been a very tough campaign for Lisa Madigan

Friday, Sep 22, 2017

* Scott Reeder claims this

Republican polling found [Lisa Madigan’s] approval rating about 34 percent, hardly a surprise after Gov. Bruce Rauner spent tens of millions of dollars attacking the Madigan name.

I checked around and was told that’s true, but she was leading Erica Harold by 10 points in the head-to-head.

As I’ve already written, she was guaranteed to face a brutal and seriously ugly campaign.

* Meanwhile, from Chicago’s 39th Ward Democratic organization…

*** SPECIAL GUEST THIS SATURDAY ***

Our friend and fellow committeeman Aaron Goldstien has thrown his hat into the ring for Illinois Attorney General. Aaron will join us to share his vision on this important position. Similar to us here in 39, Aaron took on the Machine and won, beating Dick Mell in 2016. He is a Public Defender and champion of social justice. Come this Saturday at 10AM to hear more!

Goldstein is the 33rd Ward Committeeman.

Everybody wants to get into the act.

* Related…

* Potential Lisa Madigan successors scramble to raise campaign cash

* Madigan kicks off whirlwind

- Posted by Rich Miller        

35 Comments
  1. - Grand Avenue - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:50 pm:

    Who are the women potentially in the race? Nekritz & Spyropoulos?

    They might be the ones to watch.


  2. - 47th Ward - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:53 pm:

    ===Who are the women potentially in the race? Nekritz & Spyropoulos===

    I don’t know, now that Aaron Goldstein has announced, that should pretty much clear the field, don’t you think?

    I’ll bet Kwame is crushed. He had a real shot before this news.


  3. - Shake - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:58 pm:

    Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis.. C’mon Man?


  4. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:58 pm:

    He may play in Dick Mell’s ward, but does anyone think Rod’s defense lawyer can play statewide? Anyone?

    Seriously, anyone?


  5. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:00 pm:

    ===I checked around and was told that’s true, but she was leading Erica Harold by 10 points in the head-to-head===

    I think this is the reality of the campaign, but the polling on her last name probably cost 10 or more points in a head to head with Harold.

    You win by 10, 15, or 5 points, you still win, but the brutality of where the numbers started, wow.

    To that, even broader,

    The idea now that no “Madigan” is on a statewide ticket hurts Raunerites.

    Before, you could take your frustration on “Lisa” from Rockford to Galena, to Cairo… now no easy “out”, only Rauner and his own disapproval numbers statewide.


  6. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:05 pm:

    ===Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis===

    So? Rodney is a heckuva campaigner and he had the party behind him.


  7. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:07 pm:

    What a scoop. Does Reeder have the skinny on other candidates not running? How’s that Lincoln/Douglas rematch looking?

    How do you have a 34% approval rate and still lead a named GOP opponent by 10 points, anyway?

    A 34% approval rate indicates no support from Independents. A 10 point lead indicates plenty.

    Doesn’t matter. It’s not even academic, it’s irrelevant.


  8. - theCardinal - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:12 pm:

    So when the going looked tough Lisa packed it in? Not buying that at all. There is another plan we just aint privy to it.


  9. - Downstate43 - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:15 pm:

    == The idea now that no “Madigan” is on a statewide ticket hurts Raunerites. ==

    As a downstater, anecdotally, I can assure you that the campaign to make Mike Madigan a statewide monolith for all of IL’s ills has firmly taken hold, regardless of whether there is a Madigan on the ticket. I think we lose sight of how successful that aspect of Rauner’s messaging has been - being a Democrat in the GA is now synonymous with being in league with Madigan to most Republican voters and more than a few Independents. Yes, her last name would have provided protest votes for Harold, but I also think that her not being the candidate makes it a wash - she would’ve received plenty of votes from (I)s and a few (R)s because of her reputation. The protest votes alone wouldn’t have cost her reelection.


  10. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:17 pm:

    I don’t think we want part of Blago’s goofy defense team as AG.


  11. - HJohn - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:20 pm:

    The problem with approval ratings is while voters in one’s own party may be disappointed, that doesn’t mean they’d prefer the other party’s candidate. This is true for office holder’s of both parties.


  12. - downstate hack - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:21 pm:

    Lisa Madigan would win easily. Why She chose not to run certainly was not a fear of losing.


  13. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:21 pm:

    Methinks Reeder is still smarting that the AG’s office beat him in that federal suit regarding whether he could have journalism credentials on the House floor.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:23 pm:

    ===I think we lose sight of how successful that aspect of Rauner’s messaging has been.===

    … then 63% disapproval… then the purge… then Radical Candor, as a white male…

    The Rauner brand, even the Diana Rauner brand isn’t all puppies and rainbows now.

    You make good points on the overall, but making this point to that…


  15. - Shake - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:31 pm:

    Lisa’s Next Office U.S. Senator..


  16. - DuPage Saint - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:39 pm:

    OW I think Rauner is a disaster and ruined my party. But being a disaster does not mean his anti Madigan ant Chicago screed is not working. And he must have really bought the party off I cannot believe there is no Republican challenging his choice for AG. Profiles in courage all of them


  17. - JS Mill - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:40 pm:

    =As a downstater, anecdotally, I can assure you that the campaign to make Mike Madigan a statewide monolith for all of IL’s ills has firmly taken hold, =

    How many people in Illinois live outside Cook and the collar counties?

    For anyone running against a strong Democrat in a statewide election, it is Cook and the collars that matter. Rauner realized this and his performance where most of the people are was a big factor in his win. So was one of the worst opponents in history.


  18. - Anon - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:40 pm:

    Lisa had broad respect for her work. The problems of this state hardly point to her. But, yes, her name is not as marketable as it was 15 years ago. We’ll see about Harold. Probably a good choice for the Republicans. Probably will not be a winner.


  19. - DarkHorse - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:51 pm:

    It will be interesting to see how, if at all, Harold changes her “pitch” - anti-Madigan anti-career politician - now that Lisa Madigan’s bowed out. If Rauner is controlling the purse strings, will she be able to pivot at all? We’ll see. If she can’t project a positive, aspirational message, will be tough for her to win.


  20. - Arsenal - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:55 pm:

    I agree that Lisa Madigan still probably would have won, and perhaps with a healthy spread. But that still might’ve required an amount of effort she didn’t want to put into it.


  21. - JB13 - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:58 pm:

    Maybe, just maybe, Madigan was beating Harold by 10 points in the polling at this stage because, in some measure, no one outside of the local political fever swamps knows yet who she is?


  22. - DarkHorse - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:09 pm:

    To JB13,

    Forgive me, it’s Friday afternoon - but do you think the polling would have been closer if people knew about Harold’s impressive background, or wider if people knew about some of her more conservative policy views?


  23. - ZC - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:15 pm:

    Hillary Clinton wins in 2016, if the GOP and the right wing hasn’t invested literally millions and decades into demonizing the name.

    There’s a case to be made that Hillary should have factored that in - even if it was grossly unfair to her - and let Biden run; I do think he would have dumped Trump (assuming he would have gotten past Bernie, and let’s not start with that debate).

    The right wing always needs its Democratic Demon, to cover up for the unpopularity of many of their actual policy proposals. I don’t blame Lisa for factoring that into her decision to help the Dems keep the seat, by letting a fresh face take the lead - if that was part of her calculus (no idea if it was).


  24. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:21 pm:

    My theory is that many voters who dislike Michael J. Madigan are unable to vote against him, but Lisa Madigan would have to run statewide and be singled out by proxy by all of those who dislike Speaker Mike.

    Could Lisa win? Maybe, but it would be costly and her margins would not be close to the softball opponents that she has beaten with ease in ‘06. ‘10 and ‘14. The Speaker is safe in his own district, but disliked in many other precincts.
    Lisa spared him potential embarrassment by retiring.


  25. - Agricola - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:24 pm:

    If Lisa Madigan steps down as AG in 2019, and then runs for Senate in 2020, she’ll be able to tap donors in the financial sector that cannot donate to state elected officials. Being out of state office would make it easier to finance a Senate run.


  26. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:25 pm:

    ===and then runs for Senate in 2020===

    Take a breath.


  27. - Ana - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:42 pm:

    Actually I do think Aaron Goldstein would have a good chance. He did beat a machine politician. So that’s a plus for me. Him being Blago’s defense team isn’t a bi deal considering that he is still well liked as a governor, tren what we have now🙄


  28. - dbk - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:57 pm:

    Good points about damage to the Madigan name.

    This suggests that her future might not lie at the state electoral level. Durbin’s successor? I’m not sure that US Senator is her bailiwick. Maybe, but.

    I envision her as continuing in progressive legal advocacy at the national (non-elected) level.

    I haven’t met her, of course, but this is my sense from everything I’ve read to date.


  29. - Arthur Andersen - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:59 pm:

    Ana, it’s fine if you support Goldstein. But puh-leeze, don’t try to tell us here that Rod is “still well liked as a Governor.” 13 percent approval rating at the end and I think pollsters generally don’t poll pols in the slammer.


  30. - Helm - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 3:25 pm:

    Are we sure that Goldstein is being hosted by the 39th Ward “Regular” Democratic Organization ? The one headed my the Laurino/Barnette/D’Amico Clan ?? I find it very surprising that they would be promoting the fact that Goldstein beat Mell as they are prety tight w/ Mell.

    Sounds like more of an “independent” 39th Ward Democratic Organization.


  31. - W Flag - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 3:34 pm:

    @Helm:

    The Laurino clan lost control of the 39th Ward Regular Democratic Organization when their candidate for Ward Committeeman (Malloy) lost in 2016. Robert Murphy is the Committeeman now.


  32. - Brookfield - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:35 pm:

    Burke’s daughter runs for AG with endorsement of Dem party of IL (Madigan) … Ann Burke steps down from Supreme Court and Lisa Madigan is appointed to fill out her term


  33. - Roman - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:37 pm:

    ===Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis===

    And Obama couldn’t beat Bobby Rush.


  34. - Lester Holt's Mustache - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:40 pm:

    Frankly, this poll would effectively show “generic GOP candidate” vs. Lisa. Unless she has moderated her positions, there’s no way Harold would come within 20 points of Lisa Madigan. Her positions, at least as of a few years ago, would generously be described as just to the right of Rep. Ives. If she is still pushing anti-abortion rights, anti gay marriage, anti legalization of marijuana positions, and still supports repealing the affordable care act these numbers are just not credible. And that is before she has to start answering questions about whether or not she agrees with Rauner and Trump on a host of issues.


  35. - Downstate43 - Monday, Sep 25, 17 @ 9:26 am:

    == How many people in Illinois live outside Cook and the collar counties? For anyone running against a strong Democrat in a statewide election, it is Cook and the collars that matter. ==

    Like 4-5 million, depending on your definition of collars? I don’t disagree with you, though, and I wasn’t implying that downstate was going to determine the AG election, merely pointing out that despite a 63% unfavorable, BTIA has been successful in vilifying Madigan throughout the rest of the state - whether that translates to votes for Rauner remains to be seen. 63% disapproval doesn’t mean as much if many of those people are still going to vote for him as the perceived lesser of two evils.

    With the close-in collars being even more competitive, a statewide Republican really needs to run the table downstate to have a shot - a Dem, not so much. I think Lisa Madigan would have certainly outperformed Pat Quinn ‘10 in Cook, Metro East, and the collars and she still would’ve pulled in more downstate votes than he did; it was hers to lose. I agree with everyone else that she didn’t get out of this because she thought she might not win.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Amazon HQ2 site list unveiled
* Out of sight out of mind?
* Frerichs tries to use state investments to prod Facebook into cleaning up its act
* The rise of the billionaire governors
* Camelot promises to grow lottery sales by 40 percent
* Munger tries to defend Rauner veto of Debt Transparency Act
* Rauner: "I can’t comment on any business disputes"
* Question of the day
* Rauner finally takes a stand on a federal issue
* Moody's says "political backlash" against pop tax could make other tax hikes more difficult
* Report: Amazon subsidy could add up to $2 billion
* *** UPDATED x1 *** 10,800 jobs lost in a single month, but Illinois media barely notices
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* MLB open thread
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Rauner expected to announce re-election bid Mon.....
* Rauner expected to announce reelection bid Mond.....
* Rauner expected to announce run for reelection .....
* Illinois governors race one pace to be most exp.....
* Rauner to announce re-election bid on Monday, s.....
* Kennedy, Biss and Pritzker leading the Democrat.....
* Our View: Overriding this veto is a no-brainer .....
* Our View: Overriding this veto is a no-brainer..


* 'Welcoming City' resolution considered for Springfield
* Family donates boxed linked to Lincoln to historical society
* Family donates boxed linked to Lincoln to historical society
* Vietnam veteran from Coffeen has been awarded Bronze Star
* New testing benchmarks to rely only on SAT exam in Illinois
* New testing benchmarks to rely only on SAT exam in Illinois
* Lincoln Museum plans special events on Veterans Day
* EXCHANGE: After years of searching, adoption mystery solved
* EXCHANGE: Architect saves his deteriorating childhood home
* Chicago restaurant brawl leaves 3 with gunshot wounds

* Governor's race could be costliest in U.S. history
* Voter advocates push Illinois to exit multistate database
* Lawmakers set to return Tuesday for veto session
* Illinois Lottery's new manager projects $4B in sales
* UIS students could study at newly proposed Chicago research center
* Aaron Schock attorneys contest federal claims on misstatements
* Under the Dome Podcast: Will lawmakers address gun control during the veto session?
* Chicago lawyer announces bid for Illinois attorney general
* Illinois borrows $1.5B at reduced interest to pay down debt
* Rauner cuts human services, other area in state budget

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* Northwest Indiana: 'Right-to-work zone'
* Is Dem primary over? No, but Pritzker rivals need to pick up pace
* The biggest Chicago-area building sales
* Here are the sites Chicago is pitching to Amazon


* Police: Man found dead with gunshot wounds to back, head in Austin
* Gov. Rauner to announce re-election bid on Monday, sources say
* Crews rescue disabled man from burning Des Plaines home
* Pit bull bite in Woodridge sends woman to hospital
* Bears slow ‘slippery’ Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey in win
* Bears’ Akiem Hicks salutes Willie Young, says own injury will be ‘OK’
* Why did Bears coach John Fox kick a FG from inside the 1-yard line?
* Week 8 Further Review: Notre Dame is up there with any one-loss team
* Three-and-Out: Tarik Cohen ‘I blame myself’ for not scoring long TD
* Run-heavy plan works again, but John Fox will need Mitch Trubisky soon


* McCain seems to swipe at Trump with comment on Vietnam 'bone spur' deferments
* Dramatic sentencing hearing expected in Bowe Bergdahl case
* 1 killed, 4 injured in shootings on Sunday
* Trump's sons see green in the blues as they build hotels in rural Mississippi
* As monuments to the Confederacy are removed from public squares, new ones are quietly being erected
* Bears defense attacks Panthers QB Cam Newton early, often in dominant win
* Panthers QB Cam Newton on rocky day: 'We squandered that opportunity'
* After 2 opponent forfeits, Hope Academy to host playoff game next weekend
* Bears get after Cam Newton, will go as far as their defense will take them
* 'Not for the faint of heart': Lincoln-Way East set for tough 8A test


» Voter Advocates Push Illinois To Exit Multistate Database
» Lawmaker Says Facebook Refuses To Fact Check Ads
» State Week: Chasing Amazon, Bonding Debt
» Teaching Kids To ‘Say Something’ In An Era of School Shootings
» Illinois Issues: Cities Lose Out On Retail Tax As Online Shopping Booms
» What Could Hurt Chicago’s Bid For Amazon’s HQ2?
» At CPS, More Special Education Dollars Go To White, Wealthier Students
» Illinois Bond Sale To Help Pay $16bn Debts
» Mayor To Propose Higher Prices For Ridesharing, Big Concerts
» WBEZ Investigation: CPS Secretly Overhauled Special Education At Students’ Expense


* George Will: The fatal conceit of planning for the future
* Our View: Overriding this veto is a no-brainer
* Governor's race could be costliest in U.S. history
* Statehouse Insider: Will veto session show GOP revolt?
* Our View: Figure out how to make Innovation Network a reality
* Angie Muhs: Recognizing what resonates with readers
* Guest View: It's time for more oversight at CWLP
* Young Philanthropists: Banding together to make a difference
* Voter advocates push Illinois to exit multistate database
* Lawmakers set to return Tuesday for veto session


* Photos: Coming home
* Driver escape serious injury in Decatur rollover accident Sunday
* Video: Mary McMillin-Koski
* Upcoming Services
* COMING UP: Stories we're working on this week
* Murphysboro City Council to discuss railroad wanting charge homeowners for use of road
* Ikebana Demonstration
* Altamont driver hurt in rollover accident Sunday
* Driver strikes, kills pedestrian near Collinsville, police say
* 100 REASONS: Oriental Garden a picturesque place near Scovill Zoo


* Workers rally as negotiations resume in Palatine District 15
* Two police officers rescue disabled man, suffer smoke inhalation in Des Plaines fire
* Bouma, Wingels energizing Chicago Blackhawks
* Defense leads way as Steelers get comfortable atop AFC North
* Texas QB Ehlinger being evaluated for head injury

* Rival: Kinzinger not conservative - MyWebT...
* Teacher raised in Yorkville running agains...
* Dissident artist Ai Weiwei and US Rep. Ran...
* Democratic 14th Congressional District can...
* GOP congressmen say Rauner 'let down' Illi...
* Naperville's Lauren Underwood to run for R...
* Will Trump continue to unravel Obama's leg...
* Bipartisan group of lawmakers pushes job t...
* Hundreds of high school students tour Smit...
* Measure extends term of FSOC independent m...

* Dreaming about better legislation - The Tr......

* Infrastructure a priority in meeting with ......

* October 24 fundraiser for Christine Svenson
* Campaign website launched, November 2 fundraiser set, for Judge Toya T. Harvey
* Jack Hagerty campaign website launched
* In CPS it is the squeaky wheel and the color of your skin when it comes to special education services. Rahm says “they get what they deserve.”
* Sunday week in review.
* Democratic Party Chairman and tax man Joe Berrios is back to his old dirty tricks.
* JB and Joe Berrios. The hovel next door.
* Volunteer Actors/Extras Sought For Disaster Scenario
* Maryville Progress By Day and By Night
* Sarah Karp’s report on Forrest Claypool’s secret study, special ed service cuts and outrageous consultant fees. $15 million for proof reading?


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Lower-cost iPhone X due in 2018, but who’s it for?
* Essential Phone gets a $200 price drop, existing customers get credit
* Project Loon flies over Puerto Rico, iPhones to take special advantage of Band 8 LTE
* iPhone X leaked video shows poorly optimized Instagram app
* In single spotlight, it’s HTC U11 Life over U11 Plus on November 2
* Emonster sues Apple for violating Animoji trademark
* GitHub’s scandalized ex-CEO returns with Chatterbug

* Steep climbs ahead for oft-injured White Sox
* #AwardWorthy: Vote for Engel's glove
* Sporcle Saturday: Long bombs
* Petricka undergoes surgery on right elbow
* Avisail sees similarities in rebuild, stellar year
* White Sox Arizona Fall League overview
* Ron Gardenhire’s second chance back in AL Central


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller