Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » It would’ve been a very tough campaign for Lisa Madigan
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
It would’ve been a very tough campaign for Lisa Madigan

Friday, Sep 22, 2017

* Scott Reeder claims this

Republican polling found [Lisa Madigan’s] approval rating about 34 percent, hardly a surprise after Gov. Bruce Rauner spent tens of millions of dollars attacking the Madigan name.

I checked around and was told that’s true, but she was leading Erica Harold by 10 points in the head-to-head.

As I’ve already written, she was guaranteed to face a brutal and seriously ugly campaign.

* Meanwhile, from Chicago’s 39th Ward Democratic organization…


Our friend and fellow committeeman Aaron Goldstien has thrown his hat into the ring for Illinois Attorney General. Aaron will join us to share his vision on this important position. Similar to us here in 39, Aaron took on the Machine and won, beating Dick Mell in 2016. He is a Public Defender and champion of social justice. Come this Saturday at 10AM to hear more!

Goldstein is the 33rd Ward Committeeman.

Everybody wants to get into the act.

* Related…

* Potential Lisa Madigan successors scramble to raise campaign cash

* Madigan kicks off whirlwind

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Grand Avenue - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:50 pm:

    Who are the women potentially in the race? Nekritz & Spyropoulos?

    They might be the ones to watch.

  2. - 47th Ward - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:53 pm:

    ===Who are the women potentially in the race? Nekritz & Spyropoulos===

    I don’t know, now that Aaron Goldstein has announced, that should pretty much clear the field, don’t you think?

    I’ll bet Kwame is crushed. He had a real shot before this news.

  3. - Shake - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:58 pm:

    Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis.. C’mon Man?

  4. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:58 pm:

    He may play in Dick Mell’s ward, but does anyone think Rod’s defense lawyer can play statewide? Anyone?

    Seriously, anyone?

  5. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:00 pm:

    ===I checked around and was told that’s true, but she was leading Erica Harold by 10 points in the head-to-head===

    I think this is the reality of the campaign, but the polling on her last name probably cost 10 or more points in a head to head with Harold.

    You win by 10, 15, or 5 points, you still win, but the brutality of where the numbers started, wow.

    To that, even broader,

    The idea now that no “Madigan” is on a statewide ticket hurts Raunerites.

    Before, you could take your frustration on “Lisa” from Rockford to Galena, to Cairo… now no easy “out”, only Rauner and his own disapproval numbers statewide.

  6. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:05 pm:

    ===Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis===

    So? Rodney is a heckuva campaigner and he had the party behind him.

  7. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:07 pm:

    What a scoop. Does Reeder have the skinny on other candidates not running? How’s that Lincoln/Douglas rematch looking?

    How do you have a 34% approval rate and still lead a named GOP opponent by 10 points, anyway?

    A 34% approval rate indicates no support from Independents. A 10 point lead indicates plenty.

    Doesn’t matter. It’s not even academic, it’s irrelevant.

  8. - theCardinal - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:12 pm:

    So when the going looked tough Lisa packed it in? Not buying that at all. There is another plan we just aint privy to it.

  9. - Downstate43 - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:15 pm:

    == The idea now that no “Madigan” is on a statewide ticket hurts Raunerites. ==

    As a downstater, anecdotally, I can assure you that the campaign to make Mike Madigan a statewide monolith for all of IL’s ills has firmly taken hold, regardless of whether there is a Madigan on the ticket. I think we lose sight of how successful that aspect of Rauner’s messaging has been - being a Democrat in the GA is now synonymous with being in league with Madigan to most Republican voters and more than a few Independents. Yes, her last name would have provided protest votes for Harold, but I also think that her not being the candidate makes it a wash - she would’ve received plenty of votes from (I)s and a few (R)s because of her reputation. The protest votes alone wouldn’t have cost her reelection.

  10. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:17 pm:

    I don’t think we want part of Blago’s goofy defense team as AG.

  11. - HJohn - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:20 pm:

    The problem with approval ratings is while voters in one’s own party may be disappointed, that doesn’t mean they’d prefer the other party’s candidate. This is true for office holder’s of both parties.

  12. - downstate hack - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:21 pm:

    Lisa Madigan would win easily. Why She chose not to run certainly was not a fear of losing.

  13. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:21 pm:

    Methinks Reeder is still smarting that the AG’s office beat him in that federal suit regarding whether he could have journalism credentials on the House floor.

  14. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:23 pm:

    ===I think we lose sight of how successful that aspect of Rauner’s messaging has been.===

    … then 63% disapproval… then the purge… then Radical Candor, as a white male…

    The Rauner brand, even the Diana Rauner brand isn’t all puppies and rainbows now.

    You make good points on the overall, but making this point to that…

  15. - Shake - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:31 pm:

    Lisa’s Next Office U.S. Senator..

  16. - DuPage Saint - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:39 pm:

    OW I think Rauner is a disaster and ruined my party. But being a disaster does not mean his anti Madigan ant Chicago screed is not working. And he must have really bought the party off I cannot believe there is no Republican challenging his choice for AG. Profiles in courage all of them

  17. - JS Mill - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:40 pm:

    =As a downstater, anecdotally, I can assure you that the campaign to make Mike Madigan a statewide monolith for all of IL’s ills has firmly taken hold, =

    How many people in Illinois live outside Cook and the collar counties?

    For anyone running against a strong Democrat in a statewide election, it is Cook and the collars that matter. Rauner realized this and his performance where most of the people are was a big factor in his win. So was one of the worst opponents in history.

  18. - Anon - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:40 pm:

    Lisa had broad respect for her work. The problems of this state hardly point to her. But, yes, her name is not as marketable as it was 15 years ago. We’ll see about Harold. Probably a good choice for the Republicans. Probably will not be a winner.

  19. - DarkHorse - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:51 pm:

    It will be interesting to see how, if at all, Harold changes her “pitch” - anti-Madigan anti-career politician - now that Lisa Madigan’s bowed out. If Rauner is controlling the purse strings, will she be able to pivot at all? We’ll see. If she can’t project a positive, aspirational message, will be tough for her to win.

  20. - Arsenal - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:55 pm:

    I agree that Lisa Madigan still probably would have won, and perhaps with a healthy spread. But that still might’ve required an amount of effort she didn’t want to put into it.

  21. - JB13 - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:58 pm:

    Maybe, just maybe, Madigan was beating Harold by 10 points in the polling at this stage because, in some measure, no one outside of the local political fever swamps knows yet who she is?

  22. - DarkHorse - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:09 pm:

    To JB13,

    Forgive me, it’s Friday afternoon - but do you think the polling would have been closer if people knew about Harold’s impressive background, or wider if people knew about some of her more conservative policy views?

  23. - ZC - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:15 pm:

    Hillary Clinton wins in 2016, if the GOP and the right wing hasn’t invested literally millions and decades into demonizing the name.

    There’s a case to be made that Hillary should have factored that in - even if it was grossly unfair to her - and let Biden run; I do think he would have dumped Trump (assuming he would have gotten past Bernie, and let’s not start with that debate).

    The right wing always needs its Democratic Demon, to cover up for the unpopularity of many of their actual policy proposals. I don’t blame Lisa for factoring that into her decision to help the Dems keep the seat, by letting a fresh face take the lead - if that was part of her calculus (no idea if it was).

  24. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:21 pm:

    My theory is that many voters who dislike Michael J. Madigan are unable to vote against him, but Lisa Madigan would have to run statewide and be singled out by proxy by all of those who dislike Speaker Mike.

    Could Lisa win? Maybe, but it would be costly and her margins would not be close to the softball opponents that she has beaten with ease in ‘06. ‘10 and ‘14. The Speaker is safe in his own district, but disliked in many other precincts.
    Lisa spared him potential embarrassment by retiring.

  25. - Agricola - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:24 pm:

    If Lisa Madigan steps down as AG in 2019, and then runs for Senate in 2020, she’ll be able to tap donors in the financial sector that cannot donate to state elected officials. Being out of state office would make it easier to finance a Senate run.

  26. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:25 pm:

    ===and then runs for Senate in 2020===

    Take a breath.

  27. - Ana - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:42 pm:

    Actually I do think Aaron Goldstein would have a good chance. He did beat a machine politician. So that’s a plus for me. Him being Blago’s defense team isn’t a bi deal considering that he is still well liked as a governor, tren what we have now🙄

  28. - dbk - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:57 pm:

    Good points about damage to the Madigan name.

    This suggests that her future might not lie at the state electoral level. Durbin’s successor? I’m not sure that US Senator is her bailiwick. Maybe, but.

    I envision her as continuing in progressive legal advocacy at the national (non-elected) level.

    I haven’t met her, of course, but this is my sense from everything I’ve read to date.

  29. - Arthur Andersen - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:59 pm:

    Ana, it’s fine if you support Goldstein. But puh-leeze, don’t try to tell us here that Rod is “still well liked as a Governor.” 13 percent approval rating at the end and I think pollsters generally don’t poll pols in the slammer.

  30. - Helm - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 3:25 pm:

    Are we sure that Goldstein is being hosted by the 39th Ward “Regular” Democratic Organization ? The one headed my the Laurino/Barnette/D’Amico Clan ?? I find it very surprising that they would be promoting the fact that Goldstein beat Mell as they are prety tight w/ Mell.

    Sounds like more of an “independent” 39th Ward Democratic Organization.

  31. - W Flag - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 3:34 pm:


    The Laurino clan lost control of the 39th Ward Regular Democratic Organization when their candidate for Ward Committeeman (Malloy) lost in 2016. Robert Murphy is the Committeeman now.

  32. - Brookfield - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:35 pm:

    Burke’s daughter runs for AG with endorsement of Dem party of IL (Madigan) … Ann Burke steps down from Supreme Court and Lisa Madigan is appointed to fill out her term

  33. - Roman - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:37 pm:

    ===Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis===

    And Obama couldn’t beat Bobby Rush.

  34. - Lester Holt's Mustache - Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:40 pm:

    Frankly, this poll would effectively show “generic GOP candidate” vs. Lisa. Unless she has moderated her positions, there’s no way Harold would come within 20 points of Lisa Madigan. Her positions, at least as of a few years ago, would generously be described as just to the right of Rep. Ives. If she is still pushing anti-abortion rights, anti gay marriage, anti legalization of marijuana positions, and still supports repealing the affordable care act these numbers are just not credible. And that is before she has to start answering questions about whether or not she agrees with Rauner and Trump on a host of issues.

  35. - Downstate43 - Monday, Sep 25, 17 @ 9:26 am:

    == How many people in Illinois live outside Cook and the collar counties? For anyone running against a strong Democrat in a statewide election, it is Cook and the collars that matter. ==

    Like 4-5 million, depending on your definition of collars? I don’t disagree with you, though, and I wasn’t implying that downstate was going to determine the AG election, merely pointing out that despite a 63% unfavorable, BTIA has been successful in vilifying Madigan throughout the rest of the state - whether that translates to votes for Rauner remains to be seen. 63% disapproval doesn’t mean as much if many of those people are still going to vote for him as the perceived lesser of two evils.

    With the close-in collars being even more competitive, a statewide Republican really needs to run the table downstate to have a shot - a Dem, not so much. I think Lisa Madigan would have certainly outperformed Pat Quinn ‘10 in Cook, Metro East, and the collars and she still would’ve pulled in more downstate votes than he did; it was hers to lose. I agree with everyone else that she didn’t get out of this because she thought she might not win.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Question of the day
* Russians revived the Chicago Daily News before Twitter shut it down
* Harith Augustus coverage roundup
* Transitions: Baise, Denzler, Demmer, DeWitte, Mazzochi
* Caption contest!
* *** LIVE *** Campaign finance reports
* Rauner denies tacking to the right with Pence praise
* Rauner signs Firearms Restraining Order Act, 72-hour gun purchase waiting period, will veto gun shop regulation bill
* John McGovern: "An honorable man in politics"
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner to veto *** Raoul to Rauner: "Get us out of Crosscheck"
* Unclear on the concept
* Mitchell is "a foot in the door for the next generation"
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...






* Illinois governor receives mixed reaction for o.....
* New Illinois program to offer retirement saving.....
* Gov. Rauner Signs Two New Guns Laws..
* Governor Rauner signs pair of gun control bills..
* Rauner Signs 'Red Flag' Gun Law..
* GOP Illinois governor extends waiting periods f.....
* Rauner signs “red flag” gun law..
* Gov. Rauner signs gun control bill, allows cour.....
* Illinois governor signs gun-violence restrainin.....
* Gov. Rauner signs 'red flag,' 72-hour w.....

* Chicago activist demands all footage from police shooting
* Correction: CVS-Black Customer story
* Illinois governor signs 2 bills to tighten gun restrictions
* Rauner signs gun order of protection, waiting period laws
* Groups getting $11.5 million for children’s mental health
* Authorities: 2-year-old child dies after Illinois house fire
* Jeff Keicher to finish Bob Pritchard’s term in state House
* Man killed by Chicago police ran away, reached for waist
* The Latest: Video: Chicago man ran away, reached to waist
* CVS apologizes after managers call cops on black customer

* Londrigan outraises Davis in 2nd quarter; Davis has more in fund
* Gov. Rauner signs two gun control bills
* Londrigan outraises Davis in 3rd quarter; Davis has more in fund
* Durbin not confident Illinois election systems are secure
* Jeff Keicher to finish Bob Pritchard's term in Illinois House
* New Illinois program to offer retirement savings plan
* Illinois Governor's Mansion reopens to public
* State agency director Mays has spent $66K on travel
* Governor's Mansion reopens to public on Saturday
* State officials: Illinois was Russian hackers' target

* Ana Dutra resigns as CEO of Executives' Club of Chicago
* University chiefs take a hit from tax bill
* Big Pharma's metabolism is slowing down
* FCC rejects Sinclair plan for TV station sales in Tribune deal

* Storms threaten MLB All-Star festivities in Washington DC
* Man charged with firing gun while driving near Libertyville forest preserve
* Woman accused of being a covert Russian agent in the US
* New Illinois program to offer retirement savings plan
* Uber facing probe into alleged gender discrimination
* Trump won’t protect our elections, so states must step up
* He might not be saying it, but this is Mitch Trubisky’s camp — and year
* Stranded woman drank water from moss after California crash
* Man charged with murder in Memorial Day shooting in Austin
* Sentences for bringing marijuana into Illinois are absurdly high

* Trial date nears in Libertyville, Archdiocese of Chicago housing development lawsuit
* 'Hamilton: The Exhibition' postpones opening on Northerly Island to April
* Another black man is killed by police, and the distrust grows deeper
* At Lifeline Theatre, a new artistic director
* 2 suspects, ages 11 and 13, charged with doing $110,000 in damage to South Elgin trolley museum
* The perception of loyalty in the NBA should be retired
* Jared Kushner's family firm accused of pushing out tenants
* An apology to Putin: Sorry I ruined U.S./Russia relations with my 'foolishness'
* 5-year-old Glenview baseball fan wrote every team asking for a pocket schedule. The results have been delightful.
* Chicago watchdog reports harassment in city departments

» Third Party Candidates for Governor; Student Loans & Retirement Saving; New Illinois Made Makers
» CPD Officer Shoots And Kills Man In South Shore
» Durbin Says He Hasn't Taken Position on SCOTUS Pick — Also Has Doubts About Election Security
» Look Inside The Renovated Governor's Mansion
» Angry Crowd Protests After Chicago Police Fatally Shoot Man
» Chicago Police: Man Killed By Police Appeared To Be Armed
» State Week: SCOTUS Nominee, Dan Ryan Protest, Misleading Ads
» Controversy Over Firing Of Popular Chicago Public Schools Principal
» Russia Indictments Likely Cover Illinois Hack, State Official Says
» Science Heroes In Children’s Books; Creating Manufacturing Jobs; The Miller Park Zoo

* Londrigan outraises Davis in 2nd quarter; Davis has more in fund
* Gov. Rauner signs two gun control bills
* Londrigan outraises Davis in 3rd quarter; Davis has more in fund
* Durbin not confident Illinois election systems are secure
* Jeff Keicher to finish Bob Pritchard's term in Illinois House
* George Will: Don't fix baseball, even if it may be broken
* New Illinois program to offer retirement savings plan
* Illinois Governor's Mansion reopens to public
* Our View: A year after the impasse, all is not well
* UIS perspectives: UIS campus stays busy in summer

* Traffic snarled on I-255
* Road closure: Stretch of Emerson closing Tuesday morning
* O’Fallon Central Elementary new principal shares philosophy
* 'Idol' winner and Iowan Maddie Poppe announces concert in Clinton
* "President Trump missed an opportunity:" Grassley, Ernst react to comments on Russia and '16 election
* Illinois governor signs 2 bills to tighten gun restrictions
* Police investigate after Eldorado man arrives at hospital with gunshot wound
* Unclaimed winning $300,000 lotto ticket sold at Southern Illinois convenience store
* Big Ten announces Kickoff list
* Police reports

* Truckers' toll Delayed deliveries, higher prices forecast as industry struggles with driver shortage
* Harper to bat 6th, Scherzer vs. Sale to start All-Star Game
* Boy seriously injured after boat hits him on Fox River
* The Latest: Bryce Harper on how to beat shifts: 'You can't'
* Constable: A flood of all-star memories for 50-year Cubs fan

* Russians revived the Chicago Daily News be...
* 3 Roskam bills promoting access to Health ...
* Letter: Roskam stands by as lawsuit takes ...
* DRAMA on the South Side — City Club JAW-DR...
* The Midwest eases its Trump swoon and flir...
* Church still waiting on reward for Pendlet...
* Politics: Blum talks need for trade 'v...
* The story behind Ant-Man and the Wasp'...
* Republicans, including Davis, raise big bu...
* Allen West: Committing the Political Sin o...

* Local Congress members react to Trump-Puti......
* Lake County Clerk: No local results from 2......
* Sinking Kavanaugh...
* Illinois Dems Blast Trump On Twitter After......
* How one key swing vote is positioning hims......

* Even high-profile Republicans are slamming......
* Pelosi and Schumer Move Closer to a “Kompr......
* "President Trump missed an opportunit......
* Local Congress members react to Trump-Puti......
* Lawmakers react to Trump, Putin news confe......

* A judge ordered Trump to unite kids and their parents.
* Garry McCarthy.
* The [Wednesday] Papers
* The [Monday] Papers
* So, You Think You're Tolerant?
* Illinois School District Threatens to Call Police over Bible Giveaway
* Where’s Weyermuller? Running 5k with Team Patlak for Safe Haven Foundation
* Illinois Governor's mansion is reopened
* Di Leo: Of Pipelines and Alliances - President Trump at NATO
* Thorner: Be Grateful Trump Won the Presidency

* Gov. Rauner meets one of oldest living WWII veterans
* IDOT reopening lanes where possible for July 4 travel
* Bellock named DHFS director
* Follow-Up Samples from the Illinois River Show No Microcystins
* Illinois Department of Public Health Heat Safety Tips

* Samsung is offering a major Galaxy S9 smart home bundle for Amazon Prime Day
* Android 8.1 Oreo update for the Xiaomi Mi A1 finally resumes with July security patch
* Amazon Prime Day 2018: the best deals
* Amazon's web site stumbles as Prime Day launches
* Prime Day Deal: Get an entire smart home system free with a Galaxy S9 or S9 Plus
* Thousands of Mega logins dumped online, exposing user files
* Samsung Galaxy A6+ (2018) review

* Where Cubs and White Sox players will bat in All-Star lineup
* White Sox Weekly Minor League Update: Week 15
* White Sox Weekly Minor League Update: Week 15
* Join the SSS team!
* Every Home Run Derby appearance by Cubs and White Sox player...
* Lambert, Johnson on Pipeline Team of the Week
* AZL White Sox Weekend Wrap-Up

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller