Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Roskam race moved to “Toss Up” by Cook Political Report
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Roskam race moved to “Toss Up” by Cook Political Report

Friday, Nov 17, 2017

* Cook Political Report

The last two weeks have seen some significant movement in Democrats favor. First, there were the impressive results from last Tuesday’s elections. This week, we’ve seen two polls — one by Quinnipiac and one by Marist — that show Democrats with a congressional ballot advantage of +13 to +15. Three other recent polls — ABC/Washington Post, Fox, and NBC/Wall Street Journal — show Democrats with an advantage of anywhere from +7 to +15.

These are political wave numbers. […]

My colleague David Wasserman has been digging into the question of just how big of a wave Democrats need to get in order to surf into the majority. The short answer: they need to see a generic ballot advantage of +8 or more, which roughly translates to getting at least 54 percent or more of the national House vote in 2018.

The last time Democrats enjoyed a margin of +8 or more in a mid-term year was 2006. That year, Democrats won the House vote by 8.5 percent. The last time that Democrats got into the double digits was 2008 when they carried the House vote by D+11. This has led to a lots of talk that Democrats can only hit significant margins of victory in presidential elections when their base is more engaged and involved. It also helped to have a transformational candidate - Barack Obama - at the top of the ticket. Something they obviously don’t have in 2018. But, there is precedent for Democrats winning the House vote by double digits in mid-term years. In the post-Watergate midterm of 1974, Democrats won by a whopping 17 points. In Ronald Reagan’s first midterm of 1982, Democrats won the House vote by 12 points.

* As a result, Cook has moved Peter Roskam from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up”

IL-06: Peter Roskam (R) - Chicago west suburbs: Wheaton, Palatine

Toss Up. Roskam has been a party loyalist since 2006, narrowly losing a bid for GOP whip in 2014 and casting conservative votes. But his suburban Chicago district has moved away from the GOP so fast that Democrats are now wishing they hadn’t protected him in their 2012 gerrymander. In 2016, Clinton won this seat 50 percent to 43 percent. Only eight House Republicans represent a seat Trump lost by more. Defeating Roskam will be Chicago Democrats’ top priority.

The large Democratic field is led by financial adviser and former North Barrington Village Trustee Kelly Mazeski, who had $343,000 on hand at the end of September. Clean energy businessman Sean Casten, former congressional aide Carole Cheney and 2016 nominee Amanda Howland are running too. Fortunately for Democrats, Illinois’s March 20 primary should give the nominee more time to consolidate support and raise money to compete in a very expensive market.

…Adding… I’ve generally avoided covering the Dem primary because there are so many hopefuls and I wasn’t sure who would even survive the petition season. This may change things…



- Posted by Rich Miller        

31 Comments
  1. - yeah so what - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:29 pm:

    How can the change the rating on this race if they don’t even know who is opponent is ?


  2. - PublicServant - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:33 pm:

    Well he let is constituents down. They’re going to get crushed by SALT. He’s going to get what’s coming to him for not voting his district’s interests. Buh-bye.


  3. - Actual Red - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:35 pm:

    =yeah so what=
    They look at generic ballot polling to get a sense of the political environment. These polls have been showing larger Democratic advantages. Compare that to the partisan lean of the district as seen in previous elections. District went Dem in the last presidential election, and the national environment favors Dems. Looking at previous races around the country, that indicates it’s likely to be close. Like all polling analysis, it’s a measure of probability and not a prediction.


  4. - VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:35 pm:

    My gut says that he’s in trouble until the tax cut gets passed. Then it will be close with him leaning.


  5. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:37 pm:

    ===until the tax cut gets passed===

    Except the polling on that tax bill is horrible.


  6. - PJ - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:40 pm:

    ===until the tax cut gets passed===

    You mean the one with terrible polling numbers that will actually be a tax increase for lots of people in his district who deduct state taxes?


  7. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:41 pm:

    ===lots of people in his district who deduct===

    IIRC, it’s something like half.


  8. - Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:42 pm:

    ===until the tax cut gets passed===

    And not only is the polling horrible, if it gets enacted for the 2017 tax year, with SALT (or at least most of it) going away, the mortgage deduction going away, his middle and upper middle class constituents are going to be hit hard in April. They’ll remember paying extra when they vote.


  9. - JohnnyPyleDriver - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:42 pm:

    I must not be understanding this right. If the polling is indicating a several point swing toward the Ds since last election, why are Davis +3 and Bost +5 still Lean Republican and not Toss Up? Those are the 2016 ratings right?


  10. - DuPage Saint - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:43 pm:

    I will believe it when I see it Wheaton Glen Ellen never never go Democrat. This is Jeanne Ives base. If this actually turns Democrat the Republicans are in a world of hurt both nationally and statewide


  11. - wordslinger - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:48 pm:

    Time for Pete to revive Obama Voters for Roskam. Maybe this time he should add Clinton Voters for Roskam, too.


  12. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:52 pm:

    What will be the list interesting about seats like Roskam’s where Clinton won, and the seat was won be Republican is if women and the frustrated electorate with Trump will be mobilized in a micro way to go after a Roskam, in actuality, when faced with that decision in the voting booth

    Virginia said it is possible.

    The polling here points to that too.

    A year out, will that anger and frustration subside enough to let micro wins stop a huge wave?


  13. - Ron - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:52 pm:

    Roskam is toast. So is the republican majority in congress.


  14. - Roman - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 1:55 pm:

    == Democrats are now wishing they hadn’t protected him in their 2012 gerrymander. ==

    Yep, took the Dem leaning precincts out to create the Duckworth seat. When the map came out I remember thinking that’s exactly the way Roskam would have drawn it if you gave him the chance. Now it’s in play. The GOP state legislators in the district have to be a little uncomfortable, too.


  15. - Roman - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:03 pm:

    - DuPage Saint -

    Hillary won Jeanne Ives’ district by nearly 10 points.

    https://illinoiselectiondata.com/analysis/precinct/statewidebystaterep.php


  16. - The Captain - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:10 pm:

    The Clinton numbers here in 2016 were a bit of an outlier, they just didn’t like Trump so she won by 7. In that same election with the same voters Duckworth still lost by 6 and Mendoza still lost by 21. Maybe Virginia and the generic ballot numbers really are a sign but this is a heavy lift and anti-Trump fervor has to translate to other candidates in a way that it didn’t transfer to Duckworth and Mendoza in this district. I’m just not there yet.

    On the other hand, if this district is genuinely in play because of the environment how could Rauner possibly win re-election? Any way you look at it this district is much more Republican than the state as a whole so if a run-of-the-mill Republican like Roskam is in a tossup here what kind of superhero campaign is Rauner going to have to run just to have a chance? Mike Madigan is going to have to be history’s heaviest political anvil.


  17. - Chicago_Downstater - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:17 pm:

    I know that Politico can be a little cracked from time-to-time (see the article where they still think Kennedy is the Democratic front-runner), but this is a very interesting article that I think speaks to Roskam’s hazardous election:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/08/virginia-elections-suburban-data-244713

    I can’t help but think that this also bodes ill for Rauner in the suburbs. Which is why I can’t figure out why he won’t come out against the National Republican’s tax plan. It’s not like he needs national party’s approval, but he definitely needs those suburban votes.


  18. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:17 pm:

    ===and anti-Trump fervor has to translate to other candidates in a way that it didn’t transfer to ===

    http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepagelatest/democrat-pulls-off-special-election-victory-for-senate-seat-in/article_7aed6549-3589-54ea-b3be-9a5f8c87c420.html


  19. - Try-4-Truth - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:17 pm:

    ===== On the other hand, if this district is genuinely in play because of the environment how could Rauner possibly win re-election? =====

    I really don’t see how Gov. Rauner can win under most circumstances. If JB (Kennedy, Biss, whoever) melt down in a biblical way, then maybe, but if not, I just don’t see a path to victory for our Governor.


  20. - Lunchbox - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:18 pm:

    I disagree with this race characterization. Remember that Mark Kirk won this district back in 2014 and Roskam won re-election last year by 18.4%. Even if next year’s electorate is as diverse as a presidential, this is still Roskam’s race to lose. Look back to 2008 (won by 15.1%) and 2012 (also won by 18.4%.) There will be a 6th Congressional district Dem forum moderated by Mary Ann Ahern on December 12th in Carol Stream, it will be interesting to see who stands out among the candidates. Polling aside, until the Dems have a candidate and can fundraise, I’d hold off on switching to a toss up based on history alone.


  21. - Chicago_Downstater - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:25 pm:

    @Lunchbox

    All very fair and reasoned points. Sometimes these polls can be a flash in the pan and I think it does lose some legitimacy without a named opponent. Still, it’ll definitely be an interesting election to watch this cycle.


  22. - Lunchbox - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:35 pm:

    Thank you, Chicago_Downstater! This definitely will be an interesting election to watch. I’m literally one street away from the 6th so I’ll be close enough to the fun. As the Cook Report pointed out, the 2012 gerrymander made this a much safer Republican district. Count on Durbin and Duckworth and other IL House Dems to pressure the DCCC to get involved if they get a candidate they think can win (looks like they are settling on Mazeski.)


  23. - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:36 pm:

    While I hope he’s right, I’m not sure I agree with Charlie Cook on this one. Obviously it depends on his opponent, but it also depends on whether the “independents” in the district will abandon their typical support for Roskam. The D candidate I’m most intrigued by is the Bill Foster-like guy Sean Casten. If he can raise the $$, he would be a very formidable opponent for Roskam.


  24. - union thug gramma - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:40 pm:

    ====- Chicago_Downstater - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @

    I can’t help but think that this also bodes ill for Rauner in the suburbs. Which is why I can’t figure out why he won’t come out against the National Republican’s tax plan. ====
    Come out against it? He’s proud to tell media he was one of the main architects of it! As one who lives in the district, I’ve even seen some of my very staunch republican neighbors complain about Roskam and some of his votes…and that was before the possible loss of medical, student loan, property tax, state tax deductions.


  25. - Roman - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:48 pm:

    - The Captain -

    Maybe you’re right…maybe the Clinton numbers in the Chicago ‘burbs were a bit of an outlier. But Virginia says otherwise. The Dems exceeded Hillary’s perfomance in that state’s suburban enclaves and erased a 66-34 seat GOP advantage in the state assembly. The Trump effect is hardening rural/small town America’s support for Republicans while pushing the burbs toward the Dems.

    A lot can happen in a year — and the Virginia Republicans didn’t have Mike Madigan to kick around. But I wouldn’t want to be a suburban-based Republican congressman or state legislator in Illinois right now.


  26. - Dome Gnome - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:51 pm:

    A friend of mine got out in the cold to protest Roskam at a Downer’s Grove fundraiser last night, along with 400 of his closest friends. They brought the town hall meeting to him.


  27. - Bluefish - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:58 pm:

    Roskam has been having a stellar year. This didn’t sit well with a lot of parents in his district.
    http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20170205/news/170209362/


  28. - Curl of the Burl - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 2:58 pm:

    A lot of this will come down to fundraising. So far in 2017 the RNC has greatly outraised the DNC, and recently the NRCC has started to retake their fundraising lead over the DCCC.

    If the DCCC has to key in on one race to target in Illinois it will be interesting to see if they want to go after Roskam or Bost. Both could be vulnerable - although I would assume Roskam is more vulnerable.


  29. - Curl of the Burl - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 3:03 pm:

    I also think Mr. Roskam has at times imitated the old Illinois Senate Republican practice/thought of “I won’t be in trouble if they can’t see me!” that cost them 5 seats in 2006 and confirmed that elected officials and candidates need to be visible even when things aren’t going their way. He’s too elusive and, at times, strange. He needs better staff and campaign advice.


  30. - JB13 - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 3:34 pm:

    So Illinois voters now care whether someone raises their taxes? Interesting. Please, tell us more.


  31. - Amalia - Friday, Nov 17, 17 @ 4:18 pm:

    do they mean toss up like Roskam’s votes in Congress, especially lately, are sickening?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Taking a sick day
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Statehouse bills would increase drivers’ awaren.....
* McCann launches conservative bid; weirdness beg.....
* Lt. gov. to tour Continental Tire in Mt. Vernon.....


* The Latest: Sheriff: Suspect's firearms card was revoked
* Aurora native to present premiere of short film
* The Latest: Shooting suspect wanted to meet with Trump
* Church elders renew probe of founder's alleged misconduct
* Chicago sues 2 suburban towns millions owed for water
* 1868 Olympic champ to give Eureka commencement address
* Michigan center accused of honoring patients' racist demands
* July trial for Illinois man charged in sister-in-law's death
* Lake County courts to switch to online filing system in May
* EXCHANGE: Teens taught to plant, tend their own flowerpots

* Statehouse bills would increase drivers' awareness of bike safety
* Proposal would let more voters try to cut property taxes
* Illinois Lottery sells tickets for instant games after top prizes are gone
* Government consolidation efforts gain traction in General Assembly
* Bill: Put therapists, not armed security, in Illinois schools
* Report: Improvements to veterans home could cost $265M
* Rauner's point person on Legionnaires' outbreak makes $20K monthly
* Presidential library publishes digital archive of papers from Lincoln's first 33 years
* McCann to run for governor as Conservative Party candidate
* Duckworth, daughter make Senate history

* Chicago's largest privately held companies
* Yes, we need the United Way
* Techie Neal Sales-Griffin takes aim at Emanuel
* Corrections
* The 0.3%: Million-dollar earners in Illinois


* Man shot in South Austin
* White Sox reliever Danny Farquhar has another surgery to relieve swelling
* Man shot in head while driving in West Humboldt Park
* Man and boy shot in South Austin
* Memorial service held for woman killed in Southwest flight
* 2 men shot in Lawndale
* Javy Baez still steams over DJ LeMahieu flap after Cubs’ victory
* Shooter killed man in 2015 for selling weed on his ‘territory’: prosecutors
* Kris Bryant appears to avoid concussion in Cubs’ bruising 9-7 win over Rockies
* Adam L. Jahns: Whom the Bears should draft with their first-round pick Thursday


* Suspect in Tennessee Waffle House shooting had guns seized after arrest near White House last year
* ‘Westworld’ Episode 1 recap: 5 things to know about ‘Journey Into Night’ and the start of Season 2
* After backlash, Shania Twain apologizes for saying she would have voted for Trump
* Wisconsin is the GOP model for ‘welfare reform.’ But as work requirements grow, so does one family’s desperation.
* At least 8 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Dorothy Brown brushes aside federal probe, announces run for Chicago mayor
* Former presidents, first ladies pose for photo at Barbara Bush's funeral
* Cubs hold on for wild win over Rockies after Kris Bryant beaning
* Cubs working with Yu Darvish to solve his 5th-inning struggles
* 'Harry Potter and the Cursed Child' opens on Broadway, the J.K. Rowling magic now passed between generations


» At South Side Cemetery, A Gathering For Confederate Descendants – And Protesters
» Official: Pop Tax Repeal Could Mean Late Tax Bills, Budget Headaches
» Casino Sale Raises Questions About A Windfall - Or A Conflict - For Pritzker
» Eliminating Golden Parachutes in Illinois; Children’s Author M.J. Mouton; Illinois Budget
» Obamacare Protection Measure Fails in Illinois House
» State Week: McCann Makes Three; Blagojevich Makes Appeal; Preckwinkle Makes History
» WBEZ’s Chicago and Illinois News Roundup: April 20, 2018
» From Columbine To Parkland: Art And Activism
» Web Extra, The Week in Review: Is there a Newspaper War in Chicago?
» The Week in Review: Dorothy Brown Enters Mayoral Race


* George Will: Gorsuch strikes blow against administrative state
* Statehouse bills would increase drivers' awareness of bike safety
* Proposal would let more voters try to cut property taxes
* Illinois Lottery sells tickets for instant games after top prizes are gone
* Government consolidation efforts gain traction in General Assembly
* Statehouse Insider: Governor's race could set records beyond spending
* Guest View: Doing nothing on transportation funding is no longer an option
* Our View: Let the people vote on fair maps
* United Way: Dedicated volunteers affect lives every day
* Guest View: A nation at risk


* A list of fundraising events in central Illinois, April 23
* Random Acts of Kindness: Shopper's courtesy leads to bouquet of tulips
* Two taken to hospital after car flips into ditch in Belleville
* Crash reported near Oakwood
* He told police he witnessed a robbery, but surveillance video showed otherwise
* Church gifts the Decatur community with the 'Give Back'
* 'A supportive community': Event raises awareness of medical cannabis use
* After tragedy, Central Illinois mothers bring heart initiative to life
* Nashville police search for Waffle House shooting suspect
* At least four dead after shooting at Tennessee Waffle House


* Ex-Illinois man sought after 4 dead in Waffle House shooting in Tennessee
* Cubs' Kris Bryant hit on helmet by pitch, leaves game
* Beyond cookies: Thousands of girls are becoming Cub Scouts
* Scouting report: White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
* White Sox downplay Moncada controversy

* Republicans praise Ryan: 'He's done a good...
* Republicans praise Ryan: 'He's done a good...
* Rep. Randy Hultgren recognizes Loyola men'...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren visits McHenry's Pi...
* Are Illinois Congressmen safe in wake of D...
* It's official: If you prepaid your propert...
* A quick look at a few congressional races ...
* Underwood hopes winning primary formula ca...
* House approves Curbelo, Hultgren bill prot...
* Democrats aim to turn Obamacare into asset...

* Booker, Durbin, Krishnamoorthi Introduce H......
* Durbin, Duckworth demand accounting of All......
* Area US senators' votes on Trump nominatio......
* What's the Deal With Chuck Schumer's Pot B......
* Durbin, Duckworth press Allegiant for flig......

* Few mothers could do what Tammy Duckworth ......
* What Tammy Duckworth really just taught us...
* Tammy Duckworth becomes first senator to v......
* Four stories that mattered this week, expl......
* 4 stories that mattered this week, explained...

* Dried scallops the key ingredient in chef C.J. Jacobson's 'Mediterranean XO sauce' [VIDEO]
* Weed Week: Get in the mood for 4/20 with these photos by Chicagoans dedicated to legal weed
* 5 Technology Tools in the Higher Education Classroom
* Deep Learning Models That Predict Conflicts In Online Communities
* Why Is Online Learning Seeing a Surge in Popularity?
* Why an iTunes Model for Online Learning Is Bad for Educators
* Microsoft launches new online training courses for aspiring AI engineers
* Are campus innovation centers serving all students?
* Digital Learning Strategies for Rural America: A Scan of Policy and Practice in K-12 Education
* With FCC approval, all systems are go for Starlink global internet


* IEMA Highlights Role of Volunteers in Disasters
* Governor Rauner activates State Emergency Operations Center in Springfield
* February Flooding Information
* IEMA Urges People to Prepare for Severe Weather
* Governor issues state disaster proclamation for flooding in Iroquois, Kankakee, Vermilion Counties

  
* Verizon software update turns LG V30 into LG V30 ThinQ
* The Meizu 15 series is powered by Samsung displays and an Exynos chipset
* Kogan Mobile climbs toward AU$3.5m quarterly profit
* Amazon India starts pre-sales push for OnePlus 6
* ​What's the most popular Linux of them all?
* Commerce Department to accept evidence from ZTE in “informal procedures”
* Deal: 3 years of SelectTV is now only $29

* White Sox Minor League Update: April 22, 2018
* Lopez strong; bullpen, bats falter against Astros
* Lopez strong; bullpen, bats falter against Astros
* Lopez strong; bullpen, bats falter against Astros
* Stros sweep, with 7-1 win
* South Side Sox Roster Ranking: Round 17
* South Side Sox Prospect Vote: Round 17


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller