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Polling shows Emanuel is no longer upside down

Tuesday, Dec 5, 2017

* Greg Hinz has a pair of poll results on Mayor Rahm Emanuel today. One was taken of Chicagoans in US Rep. Mike Quigley’s district which showed a 57 percent favorable rating and a 41 percent unfavorable rating. Emanuel’s job performance was a net positive, at 52-46. The sample for both polls was of likely Democratic primary voters for next March. So, it doesn’t include the smallish number of Chicagoans who take Republican ballots (about 11 percent last year) and those who may not vote in the mayoral race.

The other one

The other survey—actually, results of two polls of 584 likely [Chicago Democratic primary] voters conducted in late October and then late November—was conducted by a national firm that has done previous work in Illinois. The pollster involved asked questions about Emanuel as part of his survey for a statewide candidate and while neither will allow their names to be used, I spoke with the pollster directly.

In this survey, Emanuel citywide got a personal favorable rating of 50 percent positive and 40 percent negative. His rating from African-Americans was slightly better than among whites, 51/37 as opposed to 51/42, due mostly to a strong 56/32 rating from black women.

Emanuel’s rating on the North Side was 53 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable, fairly close to the results in Quigley’s district. The split was narrower on the South Side, 49 percent to 40 percent, and almost even on the West Side, 47 percent to 44 percent.

Those numbers collectively “look like the coalition that elected him last time,” said the pollster, asserting that Emanuel’s public efforts to get more state school aid for Chicago Public Schools, hire more police and help immigrants are having an impact. And overall, Emanuel’s numbers probably are stronger than they appear because the survey excludes Republicans, who likely would lean toward the mayor in a challenge from a progressive on the political left such as Garcia, the pollster said.

Take it for what you will.

…Adding… More results on Quigley from the Quigley campaign…

Very Fav 37% Somewhat Fav 34% Somewhat Unfav 7% Very Unfav 3% Name ID 81%

How would you rate the job Mike Quigley is doing in Congress?

Excellent 28% Good 41% Not so good 11% Poor 5%

If the Democratic primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote to re-elect Mike Quigley, or would you vote to replace him with another Democrat?

Definitely re-elect 35% Probably re-elect 26% Total re-elect 61% Probably replace 11% Definitely replace 7% Total replace 18% Undecided 21%

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 3:46 pm:

    No trial date yet for Van Dyke. But barring a deal, I’d imagine the trial could drive numbers negative for Emanuel.

  2. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 3:48 pm:

    The polling may change in three months when the next set of real estate bills hit the mailboxes with the new tax increases.

  3. - Ron - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 3:49 pm:

    Not surprising. Rahm has had to do a lot of tax raising due to Daley’s long and terrible tenure. Most people respect Rahm, even if they don’t like him.

  4. - Ron - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 3:49 pm:

    Services have had to be cut as well. Never popular.

  5. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 3:52 pm:

    Rahm knows how to pick good enemies. Trump and Rauner have done more to improve the Mayor’s approval ratings than anything the Mayor could have done on his own.

  6. - Ron - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:01 pm:

    And the unions, especially the CTU, hate Rahm.

  7. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:09 pm:

    ===And the unions, especially the CTU, hate Rahm.===

    The Chicago Federation of Labor loves the Mayor. Have you seen all of the construction cranes over the city skyline? Those aren’t teachers working on those multi-billion dollar investments.

  8. - Anonymous 3:48 - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:10 pm:


    I could have respected Emanuel more if he began phasing it the tax increases during his first term. It seemed as if he was so focused on securing a second term that he lied and kicked the can down the road until after the 2015 mayoral race. He put it off and now we are paying more.

  9. - Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:10 pm:

    “And overall, Emanuel’s numbers probably are stronger than they appear because the survey excludes Republicans, who likely would lean toward the mayor in a challenge from a progressive on the political left such as Garcia, the pollster said.”

    A little understated by the pollster. I think the Republicans would lean so far for Rahm vs. a progressive like Chuy Garcia they would be horizontal.

    OW wrong again about Rahm. I am not the only one that likes him on the north side.

  10. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:41 pm:

    One of my favorite Rahm moments was when he slammed Rauner’s RtW proposal, saying something like we compete with other world class cities, not Mississippi.

  11. - Ron - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:42 pm:

    47th, sorry, public employee unions hate Rahm, especially CTU.

  12. - Ron - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:45 pm:

    Rahm is really going to PO the CTU now. They are proposing new school closings as CPS is lost another 10,000 students last year.

    CPS needs to right size, but CTU will kick and scream and bring the system down if they have their way.

  13. - DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:45 pm:

    If not Rham whom?

  14. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:47 pm:

    ===OW wrong again about Rahm. I am not the only one that likes him on the north side.===

    I didn’t even comment, lol

    You want to poke the bear, ok…

    “This” - Lucky Pierre -…

    ===…I am not the only one that likes him on the north side.===

    One “Lucky Pierre” just tolerates Rahm…

    … this other “Lucky Pierre likes him…

    You are making me want to go on Netflix and watch “The Princess Bride”…

  15. - Ron - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:50 pm:

    DuPage Saint, Rahm is my kind of Democrat generally. He could be a little tougher on the union negotiations though.

    I can’t think of anyone that will run against him that I would vote for.

    Chicago does not need CTU goons running things.

  16. - 33rd ward - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 4:58 pm:

    He keeps the ACA from having a Public Option.

    He endorses the Parking Meter scam.

    He sits on the Laquan tape.

    Why shouldn’t “democrats” embrace him?

  17. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 5:00 pm:

    ===Why shouldn’t “democrats” embrace him?===

    Fighting Trump, fighting Rauner…

    At least it looks like he’s fighting Rauner, Trump has Dems rallying around fighting Trump.

  18. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 5:03 pm:

    I’ve seen similar polling on Rahm. He’s baaaaccckkk.

  19. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 5:30 pm:

    Rahm Emanuel seems to be the only Northsider with a car who understands its state law that if I’m walking in a crosswalk he has to stop and let me by.

    Which doesn’t mean I will vote for him–that depends on who else is running.

  20. - Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 5:39 pm:

    A fiscally responsible, pro business democrat who does not cow tow to unions and is not afraid to cut spending.

    Too bad his twin is not running the GA. Probably the only Democrat who advocated for Rauner’s workers comp reform proposal.

  21. - DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 6:02 pm:

    Ron: I was born and raised in Du Page County. I was taught from birth only two thing wrong with this country. FDR and Labor Unions. That said as I become older, why is every labor person a goon? I think it is about time people organize. Unions are going under and they are going under with pride. I can work for myself!!! Yeah go ahead, no insurance no benefits but be your own man. Thank God my grandparents can’t read this.

  22. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 6:42 pm:

    ===Too bad his twin is not running the GA. Probably the only Democrat who advocated for Rauner’s workers comp reform proposal.===

    It’s up to Rauner to find his 60 and 30.

    No one else.

  23. - Roman - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 8:14 pm:

    Quigley’s district is pretty much Rahm’s base (north side yuppies) so these numbers aren’t too surprising. How Rahm is doing among African-Americans is a more relevant question — their support was the key to both his victories.

    And more than that, the big question is which would-be candidate can beat Rahm? Chicagoans might not like the guy personally, but they innately know being mayor is a really tough job, and the know Rahm can do it. The current line-up of challengers looks like the second string.

  24. - Ron - Tuesday, Dec 5, 17 @ 9:10 pm:

    Roman, I think they pulled the entire city, hence the mention of north south and west sides.

  25. - At CSU - Thursday, Dec 7, 17 @ 11:22 am:

    It’s concerning the lack of coverage regarding comments made regarding Rahm by all five gubernatorial candidates at the forum recently held at Chicago state University.
    I was present.
    Pritzker stated he had to wait to see who rahm’s opponent was before endorsing him.
    Kennedy make a lukewarm statement about Rahm, but couldn’t wholeheartedly endorse him.
    Daiber, Biss and Hardiman were virulently opposed to Rahm’s re election.
    Yet these comments weren’t covered by the local MSM.

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