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Wednesday, Dec 20, 2017

* Things can always change in politics, which is what makes it so beautiful, but the RCP generic average for live call polls in December of 2009 before the 2010 Republican wave was GOP+4.1 and the RCP generic for December of 2005 was Dem+10



If it’s that high nationally, you gotta wonder what it is in Illinois.

Headline explained here.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

43 Comments
  1. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:42 pm:

    Republicans will lose both the House and Senate next year. Book it.


  2. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:44 pm:

    “You can fool all the people some of the time, and you can fool some of the people all the time, but you won’t fool all the people this time.”
    – Abraham Lincoln (attributed)

    – MrJM


  3. - anon2 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:44 pm:

    That kind of historic headwind would reduce what Rauner insists is “very, very probable”(the retirement of the Speaker) to barely likely if not impossible.


  4. - Amalia - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:45 pm:

    interesting that the gov. of Puerto Rico is going to organize those of Puerto Rican heritage in the States to go against the Rs because of the negative consequences of the tax bill for Puerto Rico companies. This will make a difference especially in Florida.


  5. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:56 pm:

    National Republicans could be politically like those insects or other life forms who die after mating. Now that they’re giving their super-rich donors their tax cuts, serving their primary purpose in politics, their careers could end. Their jobs are complete here.


  6. - Sue - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:01 pm:

    Amalia- rumor has it were about to give PR back to Spain in exchange for a Bears first round draft pick


  7. - Lester Holt’s Mustache - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:03 pm:

    I’m confident the upcoming cuts to social security, medicaid and medicare will definitely turn those numbers around. When fake news hoopla over trump firing Mueller dies down, real Americans will totally reward GOP for giving Bruce Rauner and JB Pritzker huge permanent tax cuts and for putting a stop to those elderly and disabled moochers who are destroying our very way of life.


  8. - Loop Lady - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:03 pm:

    Merry Christmas Dems…try not to trip over yourselves (again)…


  9. - DuPage Saint - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:09 pm:

    It is a long time till November and no one (probably) named generic will be on ballot


  10. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:11 pm:

    Now that they’re giving their super-rich donors their tax cuts, serving their primary purpose in politics, their careers could end. Their jobs are complete here.”Now that they’re giving their super-rich donors their tax cuts, serving their primary purpose in politics, their careers could end. Their jobs are complete here.

    They will spin their cocoons and, after a very brief chrysalis stage, reemerge in their final form: K Street Lobbyists.

    – MrJM


  11. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:14 pm:

    DuPage Saint, people will remember. Trump is the most despised President after just 1 year in office ever.


  12. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:14 pm:

    While this doesn’t look good for the GOP, they do have small chance that people like their tax plan. I know it is chic to rail about how horrible it will be and… but truth is we don’t know. It could be good for average people or it could not be. Its not even really important as to if it is or is not “good” or “bad” its how it is perceived. I know this is national but the lesson here is polling hasn’t been tactically successful in the last few cycles. Also, in 2006 the GOP did not have as favorable map as they do now. So, while majorities are in danger…they are not gone. Rauner will have a tough time, no doubt is he gone based on wave status? Maybe not. We don’t know what we don’t know.


  13. - walker - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:16 pm:

    Could be that Madigan feels free to retire after a big win, including in the Statewide offices.


  14. - Anon221 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:18 pm:

    Before you get too gleeful on the Dem numbers, keep in mind when the 8 years “tax reform” for us little people runs out McConnell will be gone. Paul Ryan will be gone. And a lot of other Republicans will be gone either by getting voted out or retiring. If a Dem gets the Presidency, and control (or near control) of both houses, they are going to have to do some potentially very heavy lifting on taxes, health care, and entitlements. The Dems cannot lose focus of that. There’ll have to be a LOT of outreach and education of taxpayers if taxes have to be raised in one or many different areas to pay for all of the damages being done today and in the coming months (hopefully not years) of Trump. McConnell hinted at this a week or so ago, but I can’t find the reference right now. He was swallowing a grin when he inferred that the cleanup will be up to the Dems.


  15. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:29 pm:

    I wonder if Governor Rauner has ever seen the Poseidon Adventure?


  16. - Keyser Soze - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:30 pm:

    These are interesting times that are likely to become even more interesting. To the extent that the new tax code may enhance growth and increase the need for employees, a very real question is as to where shall we find employees to fill the jobs. A recent WSJ article forecasts a labor shortage.

    It has been said that the next item on Speaker Ryan’s agenda is entitlements. If a result of that is to put more people in the employable category, it may help fill the need for workers, but how will it influence voters?

    GDP growth is already being projected at 4%, versus 2% or less for the past ten years. So, there is a new dynamic at play, one that we haven’t seen for a while, one that the Millenials have never seen. Consequently, voter projections based on an outdated model of the same old same old may no longer be valid.

    This writer is looking forward to a robust economy. We haven’t had once since the Bill Clinton era. Thereafter, let the chips fall where they may.

    P.S. I happen to like Puerto Rico. Spain would need to give us more than one Bears first round draft pick, plus numerous players to be named later.


  17. - Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:32 pm:

    ==It is a long time till November and no one (probably) named generic will be on ballot==

    Indeed, but if R’s don’t run like the devil is chasing them, they’re foolish You dismiss this data at your own peril


  18. - Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:33 pm:

    ===Paul Ryan will be gone.===

    Word in DC and WI is that this might his last term as it is


  19. - Northsider - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:36 pm:

    Oso you say, Sue @ 1:01.


  20. - Moe Berg - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:37 pm:

    walker: don’t think so. Why would the Speaker retire when, for the first time since George Ryan, he might actually have a governor he can work with?. Wouldn’t expect any earlier than 2023.


  21. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:39 pm:

    To the extent that the new tax code may enhance growth and increase the need for employees”

    Too bad none that is expected by any real economist.


  22. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:40 pm:

    GDP growth is already being projected at 4%”

    No it isn’t.


  23. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:46 pm:

    GDP is forecast to grow about 2.5% in 2018. You drinking the Trump poison?


  24. - Nacho - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:57 pm:

    ==While this doesn’t look good for the GOP, they do have small chance that people like their tax plan.==

    The tax plan is massively underwater and public perception of major legislation is very “sticky.” The chances that this law is viewed favorably come November are essentially nil.


  25. - late to the party - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:08 pm:

    ==While this doesn’t look good for the GOP, they do have small chance that people like their tax plan.==

    Keep in mind, a lot of people will get a tax cut but still not like the plan. I doubt very many people besides the very rich will have their taxes cut enough to escape the potential federal budget carnage needed to pay for it.


  26. - Chicago_Downstater - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:14 pm:

    @Keyser Soze

    Oh boy…so much wrong with that comment. @Ron already covered quite a bit, but I just have to point out that cutting entitlements will not fix the labor shortage. Let’s not even get into how time-after-time research as shown that those on entitlements would prefer to work a living wage job and skip to the larger–rather glaring–flaw in your logic. We only have a labor shortage because there aren’t enough “skilled” workers to fill the positions most needed in today’s economy. Unless you are somehow giving those you kicked off of entitlements the most needed employable skill sets, then you are not doing anything to end the labor shortage.

    To the post:
    This really could be a historic wave for the Dems. With numbers like that even a fairly flawed Dem could run against Rauner–who is himself underwater–and come out on top. I think the governor’s race is the Dems’ to lose in 2018.


  27. - Honeybear - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:17 pm:

    Ron- wow, I’m a puzzled. We agree about growth. I think it’s actually going to tank. We’re going to see the effects of this immediately. The stock market will soar but growth will putter if not go down. Wall Street skimming and offshoring. Employment rate going up but participation rate flat as folks take another job to make ends meet.
    Then it’s all going to plummet
    The Great Depression will be a Tea Party
    The Retail Collapse starts next month
    1 Trillion in debt comes due in next five years
    See Bloombergs Americas Retail Apocalypse is really just beginning.

    Congress just green lighted one last heist
    Before it hits the fan


  28. - The Dude Abides - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:17 pm:

    Rauner is saying that he’s very confident that he’ll be reelected. You have to wonder if he really believes that. In January 2019 he will likely be gone. It will be interesting to see how another budget impasse in 2018 plays with the voters. It’s not just Democrats that are sick of him and want him gone. Former Governor Thompson said back in 2015 that he didn’t understand how Rauner thought declaring war on Democrats was going to help him pass some of his agenda. I think 6 months after entering office he had already made his bed and was doomed to be a failure as Governor.


  29. - Boone's is Back - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:21 pm:

    TSUNAMI


  30. - Norseman - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:32 pm:

    Walker, I welcome you to my tinfoil hat theory that Madigan will retire after defeating Rauner.

    To the post. I hope this is an accurate reflection of an actual wave that takes out GOP majorities in both chambers. However, things have been kinda crazy of late. The GOP still has gerrymandering advantages and less seats to defend than the Dems.


  31. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:34 pm:

    “Keep in mind, a lot of people will get a tax cut but still not like the plan.”

    Yep.

    Even if their final tax bill goes down a bit, when they can’t take the deductions that they’ve traditionally enjoyed, many will suspect that they’re being screwed.

    – MrJM


  32. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:19 pm:

    ==That kind of historic headwind would reduce what Rauner insists is “very, very probable”(the retirement of the Speaker) to barely likely if not impossible.==

    Indeed, if that’s accurate, Hose Dems will pick up seats.


  33. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:21 pm:

    ==walker: don’t think so. Why would the Speaker retire when, for the first time since George Ryan, he might actually have a governor he can work with?==

    A Dem, if a Dem even wins, is no guarantee that Madigan can work with him, as you kinda indicate.


  34. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:34 pm:

    I don’t see Madigan leaving voluntarily until after he draws the next map, or possibly the map after that one.


  35. - Arizona Bob - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:41 pm:

    These “generic” polls pretty much mean nothing in the general elections. Time after time when pollsters ask for the approval ratings of Congress, they’re miserably poor, but when they’re asked about THEIR Rep and Senator, they love ‘em and want them re-elected. Now, if the question was would you re-elect your Congressmen and Senator next year and these numbers hold up, that would be another thing….


  36. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:44 pm:

    ===These “generic” polls pretty much mean nothing in the general elections.===

    Rich helpfully included some context for these numbers, showing how the polling numbers compared with two recent wave elections, one R and one D.

    But thanks for providing a classic moment in blogging: dismiss any information that challenges your beliefs.

    Yes, these numbers mean nothing. Should be a fine year for Republicans. Go with that, it’ll make it easier for you to get through the day.


  37. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:07 pm:

    –“There’s no illusion about the storm that’s coming,” said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma, invoking last month’s governor’s races and last week’s Senate special election. “If you had any doubts, they were wiped away after New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama.”–

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/us/politics/house-control-2018-suburbs-trump-republicans-democrats.html?_r=0


  38. - Keyser Soze - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:11 pm:

    GDP Growth?

    Please see:

    www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

    12-15-17

    The topic of a work force on holiday, those who have given up on finding work, millenials living in parent’s basements, etc., has also been discussed from time to time in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and many others. And, as an aside, comments that are offered as possibilities, or food for thought, are only that. Being neither a D nor an R, I don’t have a party line to follow and defend. Facts are much better.


  39. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:49 pm:

    It’s the macro wave of what Rauner, the statewides, even the congresscritters will see this wave as it it’s shore, like the worst part of the storm…

    The micro of “Madigan” vs. the wave could be the most interesting measure, how much the wave helps Madigan.


  40. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 5:36 pm:

    Keyser, that now cast is for quarterly growth. I don’t know of many real economists that think GDP will grow 4% next year.


  41. - Not a Billionaire - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 5:49 pm:

    Trump was at 49 in Alabama so there is no way he is at 41 like the NBC poll. We are seeing the swing everywhere so it means Pritzger should focus his ads on border areas and up his regional clout and in the federal and state house races so he has a blowout here.


  42. - Blue dog dem - Thursday, Dec 21, 17 @ 7:25 am:

    Amazong things with the GOP tax plan already. I knew Dems and progressives.are against $15′min wage. Just campaign rhetoric. Think ATT union employees like trump today?


  43. - Keyser Soze - Thursday, Dec 21, 17 @ 1:18 pm:

    Cognitive dissonance. When they can’t handle the truth, they change the subject.


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