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Poll: Rauner leads Ives 65-21

Wednesday, Jan 17, 2018

* We Ask America poll of 1,026 likely voters taken January 14-16 with a margin of error of ±3.06 percent

If the GOP Primary for Illinois governor were held today, for whom would you vote?

    Bruce Rauner 64.59%
    Jeanne Ives 20.51%
    Undecided 14.90%

Please give us your general opinion of Jeanne Ives.

    Never heard of 68.43%
    Favorable 13.92%
    Unfavorable 4.51%
    Neutral 13.14%

Please give us your general opinion of Bruce Rauner.

    Never heard of 0.39%
    Favorable 64.71%
    Unfavorable 25.10%
    Neutral 9.80%

A We Ask America poll taken in October had the race at 64-19.

* Tribune

* Bruce Rauner: Raised $2.9 million. Spent $12.8 million. Had $55.6 million in the bank.

* Jeanne Ives: Raised $433,660. Spent $38,922. Had $662,464 in the bank.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

51 Comments
  1. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:37 am:

    I thought that Ives’ good bio might get her some extra press, but it ain’t happening yet, and time’s a-wastin’.


  2. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:42 am:

    I don’t believe Rauner’s 64.71% favorable if “all likely voters.” GOP voters, maybe.


  3. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:43 am:

    ==I don’t believe Rauner’s 64.71% favorable if “all likely voters.” GOP voters, maybe.==

    Seeing as it’s a poll of likely primary voters, you should be able to put 2 and 2 together


  4. - A guy - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:45 am:

    This might be the best polling ever NOT to be publicized by a Gov, because he doesn’t want to let any oxygen into her tent. Weird cycle.


  5. - Anon221 - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:45 am:

    From the Poll:

    Please give us your general opinion of Jeanne Ives.Never heard of 68.43%


  6. - Fax Machine - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:46 am:

    At this point the only question is whether she gets more than the 28% her new bff Tio Hardiman got against Quinn in 2014


  7. - ItsMillerTime - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:46 am:

    Unless Ives starts to raise some serious money, the only way she will get name recognition is if she gets Trump to start talking about her.


  8. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:47 am:

    Time to go negative, Jeanne. /s


  9. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:49 am:

    Obviously Rauner is highly favored against Ives. Ives is a far right wing dinosaur. We don’t live in Kansas, this is Illinois. The real question is, what are the chances Rauner wins in the general? Slim to none from my perspective.


  10. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:49 am:

    Ives is actually doing much better (per the poll) than I thought she would be doing. I had her around 5%.


  11. - old time golfer - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:50 am:

    So here is the dilemma for Ives as I see it. With some of the dumb stuff she says and believes she might be better off that only 68.43% knows who she is.


  12. - Rabid - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:52 am:

    JB start using Ives quotes, as part of your attack ads


  13. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:53 am:

    So an unknown, underfunded challenger is up against an incumbent who has a 65% approval rating amongst the voting pool. Pretty easy to see why the big money isn’t cutting her checks. They didn’t get rich by making stupid bets.


  14. - Roman - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:54 am:

    Would like to see some informed questions asked after participants were told about Rauner’s abortion and immigration stances and Ives’ bio was read.

    But even that kind of polling data won’t matter if Ives can’t “inform” voters on her own with $3-5 million in campaign cash.


  15. - Iggy - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:54 am:

    =Time to go negative, Jeanne. /s=

    lol, thats all she has done. and it hasnt moved the needle and inch. I mean go negative and misrepresent facts on social media. such a winning strategy shes got.


  16. - Umbra - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 10:55 am:

    Wow! Jeanne is gaining some serious steam. One whole point since October. I wonder if Illinois Review will “report” on this…


  17. - King Louis XVI - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:01 am:

    –Please give us your general opinion of Bruce Rauner–

    Favorable 64.71%.

    That number should cause significant angst. For a GOP incumbent it should be 80-85%.

    No GOP enthusiasm for Rauner come the fall.

    Pity.


  18. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:04 am:

    I can’t believe that many likely Republican votes have a favorable opinion of Rauner.


  19. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:13 am:

    Ives has knocked down her “never heard of” from 85% in October to 68%, but she’s still stuck at 20%.

    Not good. Better keep chopping wood.

    Any possibility that JB pulls a Rauner and bankrolls dark-money negative spots against the governor in the GOP primary on HB40 and the Trust Act?

    Or goes full McCaskill/Akin and openly bankrolls pro-Ives spots?

    Or would that be wrong?


  20. - Dee Lay - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:13 am:

    If there was a functioning Illinois GOP, we would see an actual debate before the primary.

    But I guess when you are bought and paid for, you do as the boss says.

    Rauner has effectively made Illinois a one-party state. #RaunerAchievements


  21. - old time golfer - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:18 am:

    Another Client of that campaign genius Proft


  22. - Nick Name - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:20 am:

    That 21 percent for Ives must be the single issue pro-life voters.


  23. - Memo From Turner - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:34 am:

    Watch for a Proft poll to counter these numbers to be published by the Proft New Network.


  24. - South of Sherman - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:40 am:

    On the other hand, only 32% of those surveyed have heard of her, but she’s still getting 20% of the vote? Two-thirds of those who have heard of her plan to vote for her.

    Admittedly, losing the name recognition battle dooms her. But those numbers cannot be very comforting for Team Rauner.


  25. - Chris P. Bacon - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:44 am:

    I do believe this poll. I’ve talked to multiple hard core Republicans around the state who maybe aren’t obsessed with politics, but they do follow this stuff, and they’ve never heard of a primary challenger or Ives. These are smart people with non-political jobs, and families.

    Ives should be 20 points ahead but she’s blowing it big league. Running a horrible campaign. My sense is her inner circle is a rag tag group of Ted Cruz refugees who inexplicably seem intent on re-running their failed effort of last year. And then of course there’s the Steve Bannon of Illinois, Dan Proft. Actually that’s probably not fair, to Steve Bannon. Bannon had some success before he completely flamed-out and was totally discredited.


  26. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:47 am:

    ===Ives should be 20 points ahead===

    What would ever give you that idea?


  27. - Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:02 pm:

    4 of the 1026 likely voters had never heard of our Governor? The one that’s been in office for 3 years? The Governor that has held hostages? The one that’s already running Because Madigan ads?
    I’d wish for an additional question. How many of you consider yourself Republicans but intend to vote for a Democrat in the next general Governor race?


  28. - Slimehole - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:03 pm:

    No drama this year. Rauner wins the primary easily, but just as easily loses the general.


  29. - Just Visiting - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:17 pm:

    So who’s looking forward to the “sore loser” speeches/rants from Ives that will start March 21 and end in Jan 2019? anyone..? anyone..?


  30. - Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:19 pm:

    Hang in there Jeanne.


  31. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:20 pm:

    Not surprised Ives has virtually no chance

    What is surprising Rauner’s highest approval is in the 18-24 age group at 71%

    This is the age group that is getting pummeled the most by the Democrats through making them pay higher taxes and getting less benefits to fund decades of overspending.

    Also surprising Rauner is doing much better in Suburban cook than in the collar counties.


  32. - Chris P. Bacon - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:22 pm:

    “What would ever give you that idea?” Come on, guy’s so dishonest he lied to a Cardinal and has abandoned the base on all their big issues.


  33. - Pundent - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:28 pm:

    =Come on, guy’s so dishonest he lied to a Cardinal and has abandoned the base on all their big issues.=

    Yet even with all that his favorable rating sits at around 65% whereas Ives is at 14%. Says a lot about how people feel about the “big issues”.


  34. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:40 pm:

    CPB, maybe that’s a clue that your own opinion is not necessarily shared by the majority. Perhaps learn from this.


  35. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:42 pm:

    ===Or goes full McCaskill/Akin and openly bankrolls pro-Ives spots?

    She ran ads against the real conservative in the race which is what I would do if I were JB.

    Right wing conservative Jeanne Ives wants to….and put it on Fox News and general outlets.


  36. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:44 pm:

    ===What is surprising Rauner’s highest approval is in the 18-24 age group at 71%

    Not really. This is for Republican primary voters and Ives isn’t going to be attractive to young voters Republican or not.


  37. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:46 pm:

    Point of the above is that approval and vote is the same for that age group.


  38. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:54 pm:

    ==What is surprising Rauner’s highest approval is in the 18-24 age group at 71%==

    I’m not sure that surprises me. That age group tends to be more socially liberal, something that Ives is definitely not. Her social stances are probably 180 degrees away from what that age group believes.


  39. - blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 12:56 pm:

    Of the 20.51% who support Ives. I wonder how many stay at home come November? I know at least 8 Votes. (Disclaimer: assuming Dem candidates don’t make gun control a theme).


  40. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 1:01 pm:

    ==Disclaimer: assuming Dem candidates don’t make gun control a theme==

    You think they won’t? Hahaha, now that’s funny


  41. - Chris P. Bacon - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 1:09 pm:

    Perhaps it’s clue I’m serious beyond wanting piece of ad revenue from 2 billionaires. LOL. IL GOP can’t build under Rauner. That’s reality.


  42. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 1:41 pm:

    To the Post,

    I look at these numbers and they’re not suprising or difficult to understand.

    Let’s take Ives.

    Not very well known, farther right than Right. Even people that know or heard of her, they’re a mixed bag on how they feel about her.

    Rauner? Most of the time, you see 80 percentile within a party for an incumbent as a solid baseline of support. Rauner misses that mark, and here’s what should trouble Raunerites… right now, Ives is at 20%. That means right now 1 in 5, they are choosing to vote against Rauner in the GOP.

    I’m really liking that 37.5 number for Ives.

    If I like it all that much, that puts Rauner right where he ya now, 62.5…

    How many more are going to come home for Rauner? Is this number the ceiling now, 70 or so days out?

    That’s the question I have… how much of the undecided will Rauner win back? How many Republicans are going to see a shadow Primary run by Rauner with David Duke mistakes and conservatives ”threatening” to make some real noise…

    What’s the noise? Get Ives to 35+%

    Hmm.


  43. - Chris P. Bacon - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 2:07 pm:

    To win GOP gov primary here u need what, 400,000ish votes? Trump likely has at least 3 times more IL followers than that on Twitter alone.


  44. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 3:11 pm:

    ==To win GOP gov primary here u need what, 400,000ish votes? Trump likely has at least 3 times more IL followers than that on Twitter alone.==

    Good for him? Ives has around 2300 twitter followers, with a large chunk of those likely being reporters and opposition. Twitter ain’t winning her the primary.


  45. - Anon324 - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 4:32 pm:

    Isn’t it likely that the primary voters inclined to vote against Rauner due to the abortion funding bill are already in the Ives camp? What indication is there that her 20% has much upside? 65% of primary voters have a positive opinion of Rauner, which is equivalent to what he is polling at. There is no reason at this point to think she has any chance of closing that gap given his favorability rating.


  46. - Not a Billionaire - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 6:47 pm:

    OW makes a good point. Trump is near 80 among Repubs and look at what is happening in races like Wisconsin 10. They are a purple state. Think what happens in a deep blue state with a gov with poor party approval……..


  47. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 6:58 pm:

    I take all political polls with a shaker full of salt. I avoid answering them, period. As do a number of GOP and Independent voters I know. More and more people have opt’ed out of the whole polling thing.

    Got a feeling the polls are going to be off by a significant margin this election cycle. And where the polling is bi-partisan, I’m going to predict it will skew D more than the normal bias.


  48. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 7:03 pm:

    == 4 of the 1026 likely voters had never heard of our Governor? The one that’s been in office for 3 years? ==

    I’ve often said the average voter doesn’t pay attention to politics until (a) it’s about 6 weeks before a general election or (b) some politician gets into their pocketbook in a highly visible way.


  49. - the Cardinal - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:10 pm:

    Interesting one would have thought Ives would have had something in the 30s. Maybe BR isnt as unpopular as most think ? Or his anti Madigan thing is resonating with more than most thought.


  50. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 17, 18 @ 11:25 pm:

    ==Interesting one would have thought Ives would have had something in the 30s.==

    Why’s that?

    ==Maybe BR isnt as unpopular as most think ?–

    He’s holding at 64% among GOP voters. You’d know that if you read the thread.

    –Or his anti Madigan thing is resonating with more than most thought.–

    What “most people?” Madigan’s approval has long been underwater among GOP voters.

    I see why you call yourself “The Cardinal.” You deliver the same kind drivel as Tim McCarver.

    For your sake, I hope you have a Steve Carlton to lean on.


  51. - Rabid - Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 8:30 am:

    ILGOP just canceled their primary debates due to lack of interest


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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