* Press release…
A new We Ask America poll shows Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Daniel Biss climbing into second place past Chris Kennedy in a crowded field of governor hopefuls. At the same time, frontrunner J.B. Pritzker’s lead has diminished to a level where this may soon turn into a much more interesting race.
Here are the latest results from our poll conducted Jan. 29-30, 2018 (811 responses; Margin of Error ±3.44%
I’ve already gone over this poll with subscribers today, so we’ll stick mainly to WAA’s release…
* Back to the pollster…
Biss’ improvement puts him within striking distance in the Democrat-rich environments of Chicago and Suburban Cook. He falters elsewhere–especially downstate:
Click the pics for larger images…
* Pollster…
Kennedy’s inherent name recognition is keeping him in the game, but Biss’ rise seems to put the State Senator from Evanston into a solid second position. Pritkzer’s superior resources still make him the favorite, but the race is tightening up and may prove to ultimately be closer than once believed.
Click HERE to download the poll.
* Some early react…
I’ll post other responses as they come in.
*** UPDATE *** Biss campaign…
“The We Ask America poll confirms what we already knew,” said Abby Witt, Campaign Manager, Biss for Illinois. “Voters understand the choice in this primary: a middle-class candidate with a progressive record and bold vision for Illinois’ future, or a billionaire businessman who’s now promising to fix the same broken systems he’s benefited from. We’re excited to continue growing Team Biss, and to build a state that works for the rest of us.”
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 8:44 am:
This should give Biss all the ammo he needs to continue making campaign promises to every special interest group he encounters.
- ItsMillerTime - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 8:44 am:
I feel vindicated in saying that if Kennedy or Biss dropped out, then the other has a good shot at beating JB. They won’t though unless Kennedy burns through all his money. so there going to fight it out and try to siphon supporters from each other.
How much does this drop is thanks to Biss as opposed to Kennedy doing stupid stuff like praising Rauner?
- Grand Avenue - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 8:47 am:
Looks like Biss’s & Rauner’s ads are working, JB’s not so much.
- Real - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 8:49 am:
Jb hasn’t really put ad’s out attacking Biss so don’t understand what you mean.
- Grand Avenue - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 8:50 am:
Also, if the polling shows the Blago attack is working against Pritzker in the Dem primary, it must be radioactive for the general - if the race gets tighter, does Rauner lay off? There is nothing on Biss or Kennedy like the oppo on JB so I think Rauner’s only chance of winning is if he runs against Pritzker and uses him as a punching bag nonstop.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 8:50 am:
The apex of Kennedy’s campaign occurred when he announced. He’s never been able to get any traction and it’ largely due to his own missteps which he doesn’t seem to acknowledge. Beyond the name recognition he just hasn’t been able to deliver a cohesive message. Biss to his credit was able to avoid botching the Lt. Governor selection and resurrect his campaign. But I can’t see him closing the gap if the field isn’t cleared and Kennedy seems more interested in hanging around out of spite.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 8:50 am:
That’s a big undecided pool. Pritzker hasn’t put it away, even with all his millions spent.
But I’m sure he’s very glad both Biss and Kennedy made the ballot. Hardiman, too, for that matter.
- Chicagoski - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 8:57 am:
Since the margin of error is 3.5%, any difference below 7% is not significantly different from zero. So, really the difference between Biss and Kennedy (~6%) is not significant.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:00 am:
I don’t think Tio is going to get his 30% this time. /s
Strong move by Biss but he’s got work to do downstate, and the field needs to shrink for him to have a good shot at JB.
- LakeEffect - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:06 am:
What percent cell phones for this one? I don’t see it but may have missed it
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:07 am:
Wow. Just wow.
To the Post,
Yesterday I saw exactly why the Pritzker Crew is slipping and even why Biss is rising.
Let’s take Biss first.
Biss is doing exactly, predictably, what he should be doing, and doing it in a methodical and calculated way, following the calendar, and rising and building upon itself.
Ads staring in January, a lil artsy, a little different, but thematic to his “middle class” pitch. He’s in “our kitchens” working with “kids doing homework”, walking out of “our homes” taking kids to school… it resonates.
Biss also is building, from kitchens to endorsements like MoveOn, just to name one, and allowing a grass roots vision of himself to take root and he hopes will mean one voter bring two, three, four more voters to vote for him too.
He’s had luck too, nonlinear going after him on TV, but that part of the game too. Building unhindered, and having success in name ID and groups, and keeping his own persona intact, thus is all I thought her need to do and build upon. Biss needs serious money and true organizing these last 6+ weeks to finish the job.
(Sigh)… to Pritzker’s Crew…
It’s like watching a bad horror movie and you know “don’t go in that room” or “don’t seperate from the group”
They just don’t see “Skyhook”. At times they show signs they do, but that ad yesterday… nope… they just aren’t getting it.
Rauner ran TWO tracks. Rauner had the money to run TWO tracks.
You run 2/3 of your time and money going hard in the Primary, you run 1/3 of your time and money giving NO quarter, NO rest, NO pause against the failed sitting governor.
If you are doing that, what the heck was that 2-message, :30 second ad that swung and missed at the “porch deal”?
Rauner won, and Rauner’s genius was constantly making the ads and attacks ON the Governor, Pat Quinn. There was no rest, and while going after Quinn, hard, the attacks in Rauner were lost.
The tapes, said that weeks ago too.
You leave a marker, you refer to the marker, and attack Rauner to get him off-balance. Pritzker is still answering.
Study how Rauner took Quinn out and actually follow that script. The movie you’re running is that formulated horror film and Rauner is having you chase it.
You have the money and the talent and enough “bad” on Rauner as a governor to take it to him.
Don’t wait. Stop waiting.
Kennedy?
Kennedy is the Rauner candidate, with ads now borrowing Rauner lingo, phrasing, even the anger.
That won’t work to win in a Dem primary but it might help Kennedy in this to make Rauner’s proxy run work.
His numbers reflect his name, mixed with Rauner’s message.
Tomorrow is February.
Daylight is burning.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:20 am:
===7% is not significantly different from zero===
That’s actually not true.
- Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:20 am:
I wish they asked the candidates in order they appear on the ballot. I’m no expert but I have to guess it helps Biss he’s first. I have no horse in the race just my opinion.
- Actual Red - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:21 am:
The number of undecideds is interesting to me. Pritzker has spent a small fortune getting his name out there — if you haven’t decided on him yet, how likely are you to switch between now and March?
Obviously, JB remains in the lead and is still the betting favorite, but I think Biss has a real shot at picking up a lot of those undecideds if he spends his money wisely and keeps getting the right endorsements.
- City Zen - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:21 am:
The Biss signal doesn’t extend much beyond Chicago.
- Lady Lefty - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:22 am:
Governor Rauner said exactly what progressive Democrats fear during his Editorial Board spat this week. If JB Pritzker wins the Democratic nomination, he will win for another term.
We must resist a billionaire vs. billionaire race. Democrats will NOT show up for JB the general election.
- Anonish - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:28 am:
@City Zen, Biss doesn’t need to really reach beyond Chicago and burbs, it is where the vast majority of Dem primary voters are.
Question is though is this Biss beginning to rise or close to peak?
This poll was run right after negative ads by both Rauner and Biss have landed, but nothing has been out there attacking Biss. He may lose some steam if that happens.
- People Over Parties - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:31 am:
I think Biss has an edge in supporter enthusiasm. Could end up like Rauner vs Dillard in terms of closing the gap at the end.
I noticed Biss has the strongest support in suburban Cook, but didn’t many believe he was trying to lure in Bernie supporters (his downstage numbers ain’t that great, where Bernie did decent against Hillary). Who is the average Biss supporter?
- Iggy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:31 am:
JBP has spent insane amounts of primary money painting himself as the anti trump Candidate. most of his spots attack Trump just as much as they do Rauner. And what progress has been made? those numbers look pretty flat to me. It’s hard to pretend to be the Anti Trump solution when you are an out of touch Billionaire boasting a false progressive narrative. Daniel Biss was the anti trump candidate even before Donald Trump was running for President. So that Shtick isn’t working. Find a new narrative, get a new gimmick, because every day more and more people only know JB as that guy from the Blago commercials.
- Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:33 am:
Lady, I’ll show up for anyone to beat Rauner. I’ll only hold my nose if I’m voting for Kennedy.
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:35 am:
30 percent of Democratic primary voters back Mike Madigan’s hand picked candidate for Governor.
It will only get worse in the general election for those canidates for the GA who don’t distance themselves from him.
- Responsa - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:43 am:
==every day more and more people only know JB as that guy from the Blago commercials.==
This. And it will not be going away. With how it’s been handled so far it’s out there and there is simply no voter epiphany coming that will make them suddenly say to themselves, “meh, JB did nothing wrong”.
- former southerner - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:44 am:
Far left progressive is one way the IL Democratic part could snatch defeat from the jaws of vicotry. Sanders is a cult hero but would be a disaster in a national election and his fair weather disciple Danny boy would be a gift to Rauner in the state election.
I expect some educational ads about Biss from JB as the primary draws closer.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:49 am:
It’s encouraging for me to see Pritzker and Biss at the top. Both support legalizing marijuana, and it’s an issue that may soon have its day. Politically it seems smart, to get diverse voters interested and to the polls.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:50 am:
==Kennedy is the Rauner candidate==
Really? Is to talk about “reform” label you a Rauner candidate? I do see the tie-in with Kennedy’s kind words about Rauner, but not much beyond that. In no way do I think that Kennedy is on the same political plane with Rauner. Especially after the demographics speech (widely criticized). Kennedy has sunk his campaign none the less.
Nice to have Biss gaining on JB. Give him some competition instead of his being the anointed one. I thought that establishment candidates could face some headwinds for voters looking for a real change.
Lots of positives for the JB campaign overall. Obviously money, but they are building a deep organization and going after some key Demographics. JB Signs are all over certain Chicago neighborhoods. Every campaign has some missteps, bad advice and missed opportunities. JBs campaign overall is smart.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:54 am:
===Really? Is to talk about “reform” label you a Rauner candidate? I do see the tie-in with Kennedy’s kind words about Rauner, but not much beyond that.===
The Kennedy ad here yesterday is textbook Rauner, phrasing and words. It’s so cookie-cutter Rauner, if you had Rauner in it, it wouldn’t need any editing.
Kennedy applauded Rauner.
The lone Democrat I can think that would say tat is Ken Dunkin.
Democrats applauding Rauner… Dunkin and Kennedy. That’s the list.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:56 am:
–@City Zen, Biss doesn’t need to really reach beyond Chicago and burbs, it is where the vast majority of Dem primary voters are.–
It is where the most voters are, but ceding 34 points to your primary rival downstate is not a recipe for victory.
- supplied_demand - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:57 am:
>Sanders is a cult hero but would be a disaster in a national election and his fair weather disciple Danny boy would be a gift to Rauner in the state election.
Good thing this is a statewide election. Remember, Bernie beat Clinton downstate in the 2016 primary. Biss needs Chicago for the primary, then he can trot out Bernie downstate for the general. Interestingly, the 2016 Dem primary in Illinois had about 2 million votes, Rauner got 1.8 million votes in the 2014 Governor’s race.
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:03 am:
Looks like 70% of Democratic primary voters aren’t buying your disingenuous spin OW.
All the candidates except JB have distanced themselves from the most unpopular politician in Illinois- Speaker Madigan
They actually want a change candidate not a Madigan rubber stamp
- Lunchbox - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:04 am:
Among white voters: Pritzker 25.64%, Biss: 24.94%
Sort of surprised how close that is. JB is cleaning up among African American and Hispanic voters, huge margins.
- Anon - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:06 am:
I don’t think Biss’s agenda plays particularly well “downstate” but I think the current numbers reflect name recognition more than anything.
Speaking at least for the metro-east other than some JB ads and some Rauner ads, it’s hard to tell that there is a governor’s race going on. It’s getting a little news coverage, but not a ton, and you kind of have to look for it. I haven’t heard anyone talk about it and I certainly don’t think many people know who Daniel Biss is. If not for reading this site, I wouldn’t.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:13 am:
===Looks like 70% of Democratic primary voters…===
Like… you… “Lucky Pierre”… Democratic primary voters, lol
Rauner will be facing Donald Trump’s headwinds in a state that Clinton won by 16 points, while polling between 12-17 point ahead of Trump… with Rauner polling 30/55 approval-disapproval, 25 points under water.
Bruce Rauner has failed.
It’s up to you and the Democratic Primary voters to decide how you (“Lucky Pierre” and the collections other Democratic Primary voters) want to defeat the worst Republican governor in America.
:)
- Fax Machine - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:20 am:
Pritzker is at 41% among black voters, which is where one would expect him to be with all voters given the saturation of his ads. However, with all other demographic groups he ranges from 19 to 28. So the question to me isnt why is Pritzker so high with black voters but rather why us he so low with everyone else?
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:24 am:
It is a crying shame that we couldnt find a conservative Democrat to run against the liberal Rauner..
- Fax Machine - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:24 am:
If Biss were the nominee, would Rauner have any chance? The only negatives against him are that he hasnt been 100% Mr Unions, but when given a choice between Rauner & Biss, they’ll go to Biss in a landslide.
I’m guessing Rauner would try to tie him to Madigan because he’s taken $ from DPI & the LIFT Superpac, but that’s way too tenuous to distract voters from Rauner’s record.
I can see Rauner having a shot against JB but I dont see him with any chance against Biss, and money won’t be an issue because Dem interest groups will give Biss all he needs.
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:36 am:
Fax. Yes. Rauner would have chance. At a Democratic fundraiser a few years back, I personally asked Biss his thoughts on the 2nd amendment. He specifically told me that a well regulated militia was different than an individualls right to bear arms. I am not making this a debate on gun control, but I do predict that this issue can turn those 2 in 5 union households into Rauners camp.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:37 am:
==With how it’s been handled so far it’s out there and there is simply no voter epiphany coming that will make them suddenly say to themselves, “meh, JB did nothing wrong”.==
Weren’t you the one just yesterday saying Kennedy’s the one coming closest to matching the electorate, right as he sheds 13 points?
==but that’s way too tenuous to distract voters from Rauner’s record==
Nah, voting for Madigan for Speaker and “running Madigan’s SuperPAC” are pretty good ties. And Rauner would be able to define Biss first.
==money won’t be an issue because Dem interest groups will give Biss all he needs==
That’s pretty sanguine; Dem interest groups couldd *maybe* make up the difference, but it would tap them out for everything else. There’s definitely a reason that Rauner’s trying to kneecap Pritzker right now.
- Seymourkid - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:47 am:
Would someone in the media please ask the democratic gubernatorial candidates which of them promises that if elected, they will never ever wear a motorcycle vest like Rauner’s in public?
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:49 am:
==The only negatives against him are that he hasnt been 100% Mr Unions, ==
This is not correct, Dan has several problems. Not only did he take money from Madigan, and run his superpac, he’s the only guy who has actually voted for Madigan for speaker. He supported Rods election - twice - and I’m sure there is video of that somewhere that will end up in a Rauner commercial.
Besides Biss’ zero support outside of Chicago, his weakness among African American voters isn’t going to help - although trump should assure turnout will be high no matter what. All of that is before we get to his problem with unions, which by the way is what helped make Rauner governor in 2014 - the 2 in 5 union households OW has cited repeatedly.
Then you have the financial side of it, in which Pritzker is the only candidate who can keep up with Rauner during the spring and summer. Do you really want to elect the guy who would have to go dark for 5 months after the primary, allowing Rauner to hammer him all summer over his Madigan ties? The guy who would force the DPI to go broke helping to prop him up, and DGA to spend money in a state they don’t have to? Whoever the nominee is will get this treatment from Rauner, but only one can afford to respond before September. To paraphrase terry Cosgrove, passing over Pritzker for Biss would be political malfeasance on the part Illinois dems.
- Chicagoski - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:49 am:
===7% is not significantly different from zero===
It’s a simple rule of thumb. Indeed the math is a bit more complicated, and I would need the raw date to calculate the standard error of the difference in means, but more than likely I am correct.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:52 am:
=I do predict that this issue can turn those 2 in 5 union households into Rauners camp.=
I hardly think that this race would turn on the issue of gun control. You need to get out a bit more.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:52 am:
===more than likely I am correct===
No, you’re not. The proper way to do this is to calculate the percentage chance that Pritzker is leading Biss and Biss is leading Kennedy.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2004/08/19/margin-of-error-3/
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:54 am:
Pundent. Do you think the voters will believe a candidate that runs on a platform on lowering taxes? Rauner, whom I have utter disdain for, will use this gun issue. Maybe you should get out a bit more
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:54 am:
===…but more than likely I am correct.===
You go with that.
To all the hub-bub and hand wringing and “concern”
“… if Biss wins, then…”
“… if it’s Pritzker, well… “
Ask Comptroller Mendoza and former Comptroller Munger about the “hand picked Madigan” thingy.
When you go to see Munger, don’t forget to bring the guacamole.
The goal is to defeat Rauner. There no proxy this time, voters get to purposely vote against the worst Republican governor in America, with Trump in the White House.
There won’t be no pardon for no Rauner(?)
- scafish - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:03 am:
I notice that this poll was conducted after the Our Revolution endorsement came out. Given that they sent an email out right away, which would have been fresh in their members minds, I think OR deserves some of the credit for Biss’ surge.
- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:16 am:
AA thinks some commenters slept through Stats class. /s
- Slim Jim - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:28 am:
Rauner’s people took out Gary Forby, sending mailers to labor in the district, however out of context and disingenuous those were.
Do you think Rauner’s people will hesitate to remind state employees, teachers and public university professors…that Biss was the chief sponsor of SB1 - the pension reform bill that would have reduced their retirement benefits? Union members will embrace Biss with the same enthusiasm they did Quinn, which isn’t saying much.
- Fax Machine - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:32 am:
I will also say that I hope Biss or Kennedy does win and force the unions to tap themselves out on the Governor’a race. I’m hoping come January 2019 Rauner & Madigan are both done, so I am rooting for Dem Governor and GOP pickup of 9 seats.
Very tough for both to happen, but Biss or Kennedy being the nominee and keeping unions from funding state rep candidates makes it much more likely.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:33 am:
===Do you think Rauner’s people will hesitate to remind state employees, teachers and public university professors…that Biss was the chief sponsor of SB1 - the pension reform bill that would have reduced their retirement benefits?===
If you believe this to be effective, then you must als feel
===…state employees, teachers and public university professors…===
… will also remember these past 3 years of Rauner and Labor and knowing Rauner fully intends to destroy organized labor, while Biss or others understand that those constituents and those policies as Rauner sees them hurst then more than Biss’ past.
But you go with…
“They’ll remember Biss”
… and they’ll ignore these past 3 years.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:35 am:
===Union members will embrace Biss with the same enthusiasm they did Quinn, which isn’t saying much.===
Which is how unions got Rauner.
Do you understand how ignorant this sounds?
lol
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:39 am:
==Do you understand how ignorant this sounds?==
While it is certainly short-sighted on the part of union members, as you yourself point out, there is precedent for just that kind of short-sighted thinking.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:43 am:
===While it is certainly short-sighted on the part of union members, as you yourself point out, there is precedent for just that kind of short-sighted thinking.===
Yep.
The point, in that context too, is in the same comment you have a “…’nember when… “ thinking and the refusal to see the nose on the face.
Why it’s such a kicker, it’s seemingly with “pride” that Quinn’s issues should be a lesson to Biss, not to Labor.
That’s some messed up rationalizing and why I commented as I did.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:49 am:
==Why it’s such a kicker, it’s seemingly with “pride” that Quinn’s issues should be a lesson to Biss, not to Labor.==
I think it’s a lesson to the Democratic electorate. I mean, I’m not completely sold that if they nominate Biss, they’ll lose 2/5ths of union households again. But I think it’s a strong possibility, and I’d just as soon not risk it.
- illini - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:49 am:
@ArthurAndersen - stats was not my best class but I didn’t sleep through it. Pointed comment and well taken.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:51 am:
===But I think it’s a strong possibility, and I’d just as soon not risk it.===
“Look… why take a chance? At least, that’s the way I feel about it.”
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:54 am:
OW, once again, you’ve made a reference I just can’t catch.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:56 am:
Easter Eggs are hidden, otherwise they wouldn’t be Easter Eggs.
Google it, I think YouTube has it too
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 11:57 am:
Since when does us simple little old union members become one issue voters? When the DNC and union bosses wake up to the fact that we are a.bit more sophisticated than that, maybe they will gain some cred.
- Generic Drone - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 12:00 pm:
LP @10:03. Thay actually want a change candidate not a Madigan rubber stamp.
We will take care of that. But beating Rauner comes first.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 12:01 pm:
===Since when does us simple little old union members become one issue voters? When the DNC and union bosses wake up to the fact that we are a.bit more sophisticated than that, maybe they will gain some cred.===
When prevailing wage and collective bargaining are challenged, or facing elimination, like these past 3 years, and still Rauner is the choice… I can’t help you.
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 12:09 pm:
Thanks OW. I am being serious. But we get our strength thru consumer spending. Not govt laws.
- SaulGoodman - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 12:29 pm:
**I wish they asked the candidates in order they appear on the ballot. I’m no expert but I have to guess it helps Biss he’s first. I have no horse in the race just my opinion.**
I assume that WAA uses the same methodology that every other pollster does, and randomizes the order of the answers for each question.
- West Wing - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 12:39 pm:
This poll amplifies two main points — Undecideds are taking over as the leading group and Pritzker is dropping. The third main point is that we’re entering a phase of unpredictability in this race.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 12:41 pm:
=Since when does us simple little old union members become one issue voters?=
Didn’t you just suggest that the singular issue of guns would be enough to get 2 out of 5 union households to vote for the guy intent on destroying them?
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 12:54 pm:
Pundent. Yes I did. As you know, many,many gun owners view this as THE only issue. Many union members fall into this category. You mistake my comments as my beliefs. A previous commentator asked if Rauner has a chance. This is how. Introduce a candidate that has anti gun ownership views, and incite that crowd.
Personally, I have many issues near snd dear to me that affect how I vote. As do many of my fellow union brothers and sisters. Its not just about RTW. The union bosses have led the DNC to believe that and look at the results.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:01 pm:
==Didn’t you just suggest that the singular issue of guns would be enough to get 2 out of 5 union households to vote for the guy intent on destroying them?==
Not sure why blue dog continues to insist that union guys are all dumb enough to fall for the old GOP argument that dems “want to take away all your guns”. After repeated Supreme Court rulings on the right to bear arms and the passage of CC in Illinois, I would assume most trade union guys see this hokum for what it really is. Most of us gun owners are smarter than blue dog thinks we are.
And frankly, with Rauner’s lengthy record of double-crossing conservatives with broken promises, I feel that he’s more likely to sign a gun control bill than Pritzker or Biss is.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:15 pm:
Id also like to add, as I think this argument should be repeated again: unlikely as it may seem, Pritzker is positioned much better for those of us dems who feel it is long past time for Madigan to go. With his billions, Pritzker is the only person around who has the ability to yank the IL dem party away from Madigan. Why do House Dems repeatedly vote for Madigan for Speaker? Is it because he’s a nice guy who gives out fancy clocks? No, it’s because he controls the DPI money. With an alternative funding option available to them through Pritzker, house dems would not be so reliant on Madigan and would be better able to pressure him on things like what issues to pursue, what votes to hold, what bills get stuck in Rules committee, etc. Dems not in the house would be free to criticize him when called for, and be better able to distance themselves from him when needed.
I can’t say for sure that Pritzker would definitely do these things - maybe he won’t want to rock the boat - but I can guarantee Madigan will be able to ignore anything that a governor Dan Biss would ask him to do. It’d be a replay of the Blago and Quinn years, with every dem still waiting for Madigan to retire or pass away.
- Anon - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:18 pm:
I agree with Blue Dog that there is a disconnect between rank and file, union leaders, and the Democratic Party.
In regards to public pensions, I think the rank and file would be much more willing to trade certainty for top dollar potential than most Democratic politicians.
If I could take 75% of my currently accrued TRS benefits and put them into a 401K style account, in my name, and have all future contributions go into said account, and have no risk of the government not funding it or the money not being there, I’d take that deal 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. I say this not to debate the specifics laid out above just to illustrate the desire for more control and certainty.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:19 pm:
Kinda riffing off of LHM’s point- saying Biss can make up the money gap because traditional Dem founders will rise to his rescue is saying Biss will give up any pretense at independence.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:25 pm:
–If I could take 75% of my currently accrued TRS benefits and put them into a 401K style account, in my name, and have all future contributions go into said account, and have no risk of the government not funding it or the money not being there,—
Why would there be “no risk of the government not funding it” under a 401K as compared to pension contributions? How would that work?
You’d trade a unanimous state Supreme Court decision plus the contract clause of the U.S. Constitution for some undefined “no-risk” guarantee of a 401K? Do you think 401Ks can’t lose money?
Do you like to play poker? For money? There’s a seat waiting for you at any table in the world.
- walker - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:29 pm:
401Ks are always viewed as great options when the markets are high.
- Anon - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:43 pm:
A unanimous supreme court ruling doesn’t mean much if the money isn’t there to write the check
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:51 pm:
Again. I am not a Rauner fan. How do you let Rauner back in the ball game? Elect a Dem candidate who is not going to excite voters.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 1:56 pm:
–A unanimous supreme court ruling doesn’t mean much if the money isn’t there to write the check–
What’s your ETA on when that happens, professor?
You’re pretending to talk arithmetic here, so show your work.
- Century Club - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 2:18 pm:
This poll is a killer for Kennedy - distant 3rd in Chicago and Cook County despite all of the property tax talk, down 34% to Pritzker with African American voters despite the focus on gun violence and displacement, and down 22% Downstate where his more conservative positions should have found some support.
One poll is just that, but…
- Anon - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 3:44 pm:
Wordslinger, how on God’s green earth am I “pretending to talk arithmatic”? I specifically said I wasn’t trying to debate the specific numbers of what I said precisely because I’m not talking arithmetic. I said I’d take 75 cents on the dollar, maybe it’s 65 cents maybe it’s 85 cents, I’m not an actuary, and while it’s all hypothetical the exact % doesn’t matter. The point is, I and many others, would prefer a specific account with our names on it, to being part of a giant pool that is only something like 40% funded, even if it means we take less than 100% of what is currently promised. In my own account, no one can take that money away from me, no one can spend it on something else, it can grow with the market, it becomes part of my estate if I die. The recent half-baked proposal to borrow $100B to invest in pensions shows the opportunity cost of missing out on market growth for the underfunded portion of the pension liability. I’m not asking you to agree with me, or to take a discount on your pension, I’m just stating the strong level of distrust that I, and others, have for the state and it’s pension system.
- You betsya Buckaroo - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 5:25 pm:
Kennedy will win the primary with 32.6% of the dem. Primary vote. African vote will come in much higher than other pollsters show. Watch a strong Kennedy surge come mid Feb.
- Slim Jim - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 5:52 pm:
====Which is how unions got Rauner….Do you understand how ignorant this sounds?===
Yes, its a problem. But that’s how some will respond. That’s their thought process.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 5:56 pm:
===Yes, its a problem. But that’s how some will respond. That’s their thought process.===
Then they can’t be saved. It’s embarrassing.
That’s on leadership too.
Whomever the Dem is… they won’t be Rauner.
It can’t be explained that Rauner wants to “end” them?
Hmm.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 6:07 pm:
===Yes, its a problem. But that’s how some will respond. That’s their thought process.===
Here’s what’s real… here’s the reality they need to grasp…
It was 2 in 5 union households voted Rauner.
The goal for labor is to get that down to 1 in 5 or even 1 in 6… that’s the difference.
It will never be 100% or 90% but get it to 20% or just shy of that with 20%… with a larger plurality…
But the fear is… “we’ll show Biss” or… whomever… that’s learning nothing these past 3 years.
That’s downright sad.
- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 6:15 pm:
Anon, if you want to pick a nickname and stick around, I’ll give you plenty of reasons why a 401(k) is a bad idea for career public employees. I’m not gonna bother if you’re just driving by.
- Real - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 7:06 pm:
Pritzker is at 41% among black voters, which is where one would expect him to be with all voters given the saturation of his ads. However, with all other demographic groups he ranges from 19 to 28. So the question to me isnt why is Pritzker so high with black voters but rather why us he so low with everyone else?
-Pritzker is slow with white voters because they tend to vote the Rauner/Trump type while blacks aupport the Pritzker/Sanders type.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 7:12 pm:
The Pritzker downstate numbers is a credit to the ground game too, not just the ads.
This snapshot of that should make the downstate coordinators pumped to try to run up numbers downstate, with those offices and bodies ready to work voters.
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:11 pm:
Over the weekend I had a chance to sit down with some of my old friends(still friends). Well connected trade union, very involved in Dem politics. Bigtime down
south. I questioned the early endorsement of Jb. To a man. It was only about the money he brings to the table. This is not good
- EPatt - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:29 pm:
This poll was conducted before Terry Cosgrove and Personal PAC’s endorsement of JB. That will add 10% to JB in the next poll for sure.
- Real - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 9:40 pm:
Over the weekend I had a chance to sit down with some of my old friends(still friends). Well connected trade union, very involved in Dem politics. Bigtime down
south. I questioned the early endorsement of Jb. To a man. It was only about the money he brings to the table. This is not good
-with Citizens United being the law of the land it is good.
- Real - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:26 pm:
I think Pritzker is doing very good right now. Everybody is forgetting that Pritzker has been the main targets of Rauner, Biss, Kennedy and others. Nobody has been making negative ad’s against Biss so you really can’t compare him to Pritzker. Until you see as much attack on Biss as Prizker then compare the two.
- Frankly - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:36 pm:
—-with Citizens United being the law of the land it is good.—
This race has little to do with Citizens United. Both Rauner and Pritzker are primarily self-funded. We could help address that problem with public campaign financing, though, but self-funders aren’t super-likely to go to bat for that, so…
- Real - Wednesday, Jan 31, 18 @ 10:54 pm:
Rauner used dark money as well to get elected. That came by the Citizens United ruling. The Koch bros plan to put money into the Illinois election to assist Rauner. With that being said we need someone like Pritzker to combat that.